I think everything you said is 100% accurate with regard to Kizer and his challenges.
With that said - I personally think there is so much development needed that to consider Kizer as your bonafide 'future franchise QB' .... meaning to ignore taking one of: Rosen, Darnold, Allen, Jackson or Mayfield (assuming the scounting/GM says that one of them is most likely a future franchise QB) would be total folly.
But the bolded and underlined portion of your post is an impossibility. Considering one of the prospects a likely future franchise is mere guesswork. All any GM/scout can do is rank the prospects based on their skillset. Projection is nothing more then prognostication. You can't draft a 'franchise' QB a prospect has to
become a franchise QB and that only happens IF a
franchise is able to put the right pieces around them for them to succeed or fail. Case in point is Goff year 1 vs year 2. Sure Goff had a year of experience but the entire situation around him changed.
But, I agree IF one of those prospect is more likely to become a franchise QB then Kizer then by all means draft them. But how do you know? As a prospects their skillsets aren't head and shoulders better then Kizer. Especially considering that Kizer has a year playing under the toughest circumstances possible....unless Kizer is broken.
No-one that gets drafted is a sure thing. Miles Garret who was one of the most consensus #1 picks that I can remember had detractors and people with the opinion that Solomon Thomas or a.n.other player should have been the pick ..... arguing or debating that "we don't know" who the next Franchise QB is because it's all unknown is a really idiotic discussion. I think everyone KNOWS that the draft is a crap shoot and the QB position even more so. There are lots and lots of reasons for that. . . . . But at the end of the day the Brains trust of the Browns need to determine what they believe to be the highest probability of likely successful outcome. OF COURSE FOR ANYONE WITHOUT A TIME MACHINE OR A CRYSTAL BALL - THAT BOILS DOWN TO "GUESSWORK". And yes, no one will "know" .... And yes - you don't draft a franchise QB, you HOPE you draft a future franchise QB. That doesn't need to be discussed does it? Really?
As for the skill sets of the top 3-5 rookie QB's compared to Kizer's ... based on college and 15 NFL games for Kizer - I disagree 100% that their isn't significant difference. I think all of the rookie prospects have accuracy head and shoulders ahead of Kizer. And from watching a few highlight snaps, which for sure isn't a good sample size or fair, Mayfield and Rosen both show the ability to go through progressions which I have not seen from Kizer.
If I was a new franchise and starting out assembling a team - and my choices are Rosen. Darnold, Jackson or Kizer .... Personally Kizer is last on the list. The only thing that clouds the issue for the Browns and the reason this is a debate/issue is that kizer is already on our team ... it hurts and pains us to have to spend draft collateral on a QB in the draft (that comes with all the risk regardless of how highly the QB is graded) when there *might be* a pretty good QB already on the team. . . . whatever.
Regardless of Kizer playing under tough circumstances and bad WR's and questionable play calling, it's real simple - do YOU want to tie the success of the franchise to Kizer and not draft a QB AND not take Smith/Cousins/F.A? Because if you want rely entirely on Kizer based on what he has shown as an NFL player so far, then I think you are nuts. If you want hedge your bets and take a QB as insurance .... you either take the best you can or you're simply *wishing* for something miraculous to happen which isn't really much of a plan.
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