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#1640748 - 07/19/19 12:33 PM 2019 Daily Fantasy Football
MemphisBrownie Online   content

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DK and FanDuel pricing for Week 1 shouldn't be that far away. To kick start the season, here is an interesting article about recency bias and how to be successful in tournaments.

Disclaimer: This article serves a promotion for a service that can be paid for on the site but the general mindset regarding WRs is right on.
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Hermsmeyer: How The Buy-Low Model Works

In daily fantasy there are a number of ways to get an edge. Two of the most powerful strategies Ė especially in tournaments Ė are to identify cheap players set to have a big week, and to own at least one player the public is fading to create differentiation in your line ups.

The Air Yards Buy-Low Model we will publish each week here on Establishtherun.com was built to help identify receivers who fit both criteria. How it goes about accomplishing these goals is important to leveraging the results it spits out, so what follows is a bit on the theory behind the model and why itís useful.

Wide receivers are crucial to cashing in tournaments (and particularly DraftKings tournaments) because the top performers at the position tend to score the most points in a given week. The chart below shows the average weekly DK score for the top 12 players at each position by season. Since 2004 the top scorer in a given week is very likely to have been a wide receiver. Moreover, at no point since 2000 have the top 12 in a given week averaged below 25 DK points, which canít be said for any other position.



The problem with wide receivers is that itís harder to predict who will be in the top-12 in a given week compared to running backs or quarterbacks. Running backs are volume dependent and that volume is often easy to see coming. Injuries and past behavior by certain coaches and playcallers make identifying likely bell-cows relatively straightforward. Under center, quarterback value is driven by efficiency and that can also be projected fairly reliably on a week-to-week basis based on a playerís historical production.

Receivers, on the other hand, are a special breed. They flood the field in a typical NFL game. Three wide receiver sets have been the base offense in the NFL for years, and the progression to spread concepts that attack the field horizontally with five legitimate receiving threats shows no signs of letting up.

To unearth who has the best chance to be a top performer in a given week, you canít just limit yourself to the studs. While great WRs give you a solid floor each week, they are often expensive and their down weeks are unpredictable. Below is a plot of Julio Jones and Juju Smith-Schusterís DK points by week in 2018. You can see that each player exhibits a scoring pattern reminiscent of a sine wave, with high scoring games sometimes immediately followed by low scoring ones. Nowhere in DFS is recency bias more expensive to your bankroll than at the wide receiver position.



Crucially, the up and down pattern above exists for every WR in the NFL, regardless of their skill set. So the question becomes, can we time those breakout games somehow? Are there leading indicators that can help us forecast when a breakout week is coming and take advantage?

The answer is yes. Each week on Establish The Run Iíll post a list of receivers who have recently underperformed their opportunity as measured by things like targets and air yards. Typically 40-60% of the players identified on the list will outperform their implied value, and on many weeks youíll see one in a Milly Maker lineup. In fact, in 2018 a buy-low model player made a Milly Maker lineup each of the five first weeks of the season.

The model works because volume is ďsticky.Ē Teams and quarterbacks target receivers that they want to see get the ball. If a player gets eight targets with lots of air yards behind them, but he only catches one or two balls for 20 yards, many will begin to fade the player. If he has multiple games like this they may write him off entirely, making him low-owned.

But often what we thought was clear evidence that a player was bad turns out to simply be variance. Teams will come back to that receiver in the future and pepper him with opportunity when the opposing team Ė and the public Ė least expects it. And because touchdowns follow WRs who get opportunity, when a player finally starts catching those passes and he eventually gets on the right side of variance, he doesnít simply turn in an average game. He crushes his projection and delivers a crooked number for his owners.

While the model is based entirely on the math and numbers, Evan and Adam will layer in their expert analysis on the players identified by the model each week for those that enjoy the human touch. I also believe in transparency. Each week of the regular season Iíll report the results of model backtesting for calibration purposes before the games. Iíll post the results of the model predict vs. actual in the following weekís column. Weíll also provide tips for using the model in your line up construction process, and Iíll call out QB/receiver stacks that I think make sense in a given week.

Weíre less than two months away from kickoff. I canít wait to get started. LFG.

https://establishtherun.com/2019/07/15/hermsmeyer-how-the-buy-low-model-works/


I've already starting entering a bunch of best ball tournaments on DRAFT but really looking forward to when the DK pricing comes out. Last year it came out around this time, which many thought was earlier than in previous years, but it is what it is.

I have a Dawgtalkers group open on DK and if a group of people wanted to play in weekly contests ($1-$3; 50/50) I'm happy to share the group access link if you want to share your DK profile name in a PM.

Enjoy.
_________________________
"We'll see how much Brat...errr..........Baker improves w/out Hue in his way."

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#1640898 - 07/20/19 06:41 AM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: MemphisBrownie]
Dawgs4Life Online   content

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WRs are very difficult to predict after you get past the top few guys (Julio, Hopkins, Thomas, etc) ... last year it seemed to be a pretty big crap shoot, and I think a lot of it has to do with teamsí game plans of attacking LBs/Safeties ... stuff that we arenít privy to
_________________________
"First down as we threaten again. A score here puts us in the Super Bowl. Odell is far to the left as Landry settles into the slot. Njoku is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Hunt are split in the backfield as Baker takes the snap ... Here we go."

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#1641790 - 07/23/19 07:32 AM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: Dawgs4Life]
MemphisBrownie Online   content

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Registered: 03/01/13
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Quote:
WRs are very difficult to predict after you get past the top few guys (Julio, Hopkins, Thomas, etc) ...


Even still, it's not the easiest to predict those three.

I did something last year and will probably do it again (perhaps even more aggressive) this season in tournaments...If there is a great matchup for a team where the CB ratings, coverage, etc. are simply bad and the game total for that team is high, I decreased my ownership of the #1 guy (because he was going to be so popular anyway) and significantly increased ownership on the #2-#4 WRs (with some TE exposure as well) and stacked them with the starting QB in many lineups. I most likely took the #1 WR in cash if it wasn't too cost prohibitive.

The game that sticks in my mind was when Calvin Ridley went off for three TDs early in the season but so many people were on Jones due to the favorable matchup overall.

_________________________
"We'll see how much Brat...errr..........Baker improves w/out Hue in his way."

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#1642086 - 07/24/19 06:02 AM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: MemphisBrownie]
Dawgs4Life Online   content

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Loc: Edinboro, PA
Good tactic probably .. I like to look at the #2/#3 WR when teams have bad secondaries ... usually they dedicate so much coverage to the #1 guy that the others end up hurting them more

Like, when we were bad for so long, other teamsí other options (think of the Bengals with AJ Green) would hurt us more
_________________________
"First down as we threaten again. A score here puts us in the Super Bowl. Odell is far to the left as Landry settles into the slot. Njoku is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Hunt are split in the backfield as Baker takes the snap ... Here we go."

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#1643189 - 07/27/19 09:51 AM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: Dawgs4Life]
MemphisBrownie Online   content

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Posts: 9925
Loc: Cleveland
j/c:

Some DK RB pricing I'm interested to see in Wk. 1:

Austin Ekeler: For obvious reasons, it looks as though AE will be the number one back and has been extremely efficient when given the ball. I bet his price tag jumps for Week 1.

Kerryon Johnson: Because of today's news of the Riddick release. Would have been very interested to have known what it would have been in DK pricing came out BEFORE Riddick was cut. I'm guessing it will increase now.

Chubb/Johnson: I don't know who much DK factors offensive line in any way when it comes to building their pricing but the Browns' o- line ranking has dropped in the eyes of some. I wonder if this will result in a lower price tag for both guys?

David Johnson: Not sure what the heck happened with Johnson last season but I'm leaning toward coaching and a terrible use of the RB's skillset. He could bounce back with better QB play and a renewed focus on his usage. Could be a buy low target early on in the season.
_________________________
"We'll see how much Brat...errr..........Baker improves w/out Hue in his way."

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#1643196 - 07/27/19 10:10 AM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: MemphisBrownie]
DiamDawg Offline

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If i ask questions will u answer them? ...
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#1643335 - 07/27/19 06:58 PM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: DiamDawg]
Versatile Dog Offline

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LOL
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#GotRealPlayers

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#1643407 - 07/28/19 08:29 AM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: DiamDawg]
MemphisBrownie Online   content

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Registered: 03/01/13
Posts: 9925
Loc: Cleveland
No. I only help out Sashiettes.
_________________________
"We'll see how much Brat...errr..........Baker improves w/out Hue in his way."

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#1643431 - 07/28/19 10:42 AM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: MemphisBrownie]
DiamDawg Offline

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Registered: 11/06/06
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I thanked him when he left ... *L* ...

Guess iíll try asking a question and see what happens ...

Either way ..

LETS GOOOOOOOOoooooooooo ... thumbsup
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FREDDIE is READY!!!!!!

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#1643468 - 07/28/19 12:24 PM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: MemphisBrownie]
MemphisBrownie Online   content

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Registered: 03/01/13
Posts: 9925
Loc: Cleveland


brownie
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"We'll see how much Brat...errr..........Baker improves w/out Hue in his way."

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#1643472 - 07/28/19 12:30 PM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: MemphisBrownie]
MemphisBrownie Online   content

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Registered: 03/01/13
Posts: 9925
Loc: Cleveland
Originally Posted By: MemphisBrownie
j/c:

Some DK RB pricing I'm interested to see in Wk. 1:

Austin Ekeler: For obvious reasons, it looks as though AE will be the number one back and has been extremely efficient when given the ball. I bet his price tag jumps for Week 1.

Kerryon Johnson: Because of today's news of the Riddick release. Would have been very interested to have known what it would have been in DK pricing came out BEFORE Riddick was cut. I'm guessing it will increase now.

Chubb/Johnson: I don't know who much DK factors offensive line in any way when it comes to building their pricing but the Browns' o- line ranking has dropped in the eyes of some. I wonder if this will result in a lower price tag for both guys?

David Johnson: Not sure what the heck happened with Johnson last season but I'm leaning toward coaching and a terrible use of the RB's skillset. He could bounce back with better QB play and a renewed focus on his usage. Could be a buy low target early on in the season.



And Week 1 pricing is live!

Kerryon Johnson @ 5.8K

Ekeler@ 5.5K (Yes!)

Chubb @ 6.4K

Duke Johnson @ $3.5K (Yes!)

David Johnson @ 7.7K ( I think Draftkings is expecting a bounce back year for DJ)

Also, Baker is the fifth most expensive QB @ 6.4K
_________________________
"We'll see how much Brat...errr..........Baker improves w/out Hue in his way."

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#1643475 - 07/28/19 12:33 PM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: MemphisBrownie]
DiamDawg Offline

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Your not worried about Jackson at all? ...

I know last year when MG was out Jackson got a lot of run ... i know at first Ekeler was hurtbut as he got healthier Jackson still got some run and played pretty well ...

Who the lions play week 1? ...
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#1643588 - 07/29/19 06:27 AM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: MemphisBrownie]
Dawgs4Life Online   content

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Iíd be all over Justin Jackson ... heís got such a higher upside and might just slide into Gordonís spot
_________________________
"First down as we threaten again. A score here puts us in the Super Bowl. Odell is far to the left as Landry settles into the slot. Njoku is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Hunt are split in the backfield as Baker takes the snap ... Here we go."

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#1643592 - 07/29/19 07:33 AM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: Dawgs4Life]
MemphisBrownie Online   content

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Posts: 9925
Loc: Cleveland



AK= Austin Ekeler. Should have been AE.


_________________________
"We'll see how much Brat...errr..........Baker improves w/out Hue in his way."

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#1643613 - 07/29/19 09:28 AM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: MemphisBrownie]
MemphisBrownie Online   content

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Registered: 03/01/13
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Loc: Cleveland
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"We'll see how much Brat...errr..........Baker improves w/out Hue in his way."

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#1646747 - 08/07/19 12:10 PM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: MemphisBrownie]
MemphisBrownie Online   content

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Specifically for the Browns:

Quote:
CLEVELAND BROWNS
1. Odell Beckham Jr. saw an accurate pass (on-frame or in-stride) on 50% of his targets last year, the lowest rate among wide receivers. From Week 9 (when Freddie Kitchens started calling the teamís plays) until the end of the regular season, Baker Mayfield ranked fourth in accurate throw percentage, behind only Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Patrick Mahomes.

2A. From Week 9 until the end of the regular season, Mayfield also ranked 10th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (19.0), third in adjusted net yards per attempt (8.33), fifth in passer rating (106.2), and sixth in PFF pass grade (81.2).
2B. Kitchens will continue calling the teamís offensive plays this year, but Clevelandís new offensive coordinator is Todd Monken, who in his first season as a play-caller, oversaw a Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense that totaled 5,125 passing yards ó or the fourth-most by any team in NFL history.

3. Clevelandís passing attack has been getting all of the attention, butÖ
3A. Nick Chubb was PFFís highest-graded running back in 2018. He led the league in elusive rating (103.3), while also averaging 4.47 yards after contact per attempt, which ranks best by any running back this past decade.
3B. Kareem Hunt ranks behind only Alvin Kamara in PFF grade over the past two seasons (88.9), and also leads all running backs over this span in elusive rating (77.9)
3C. Last season, Duke Johnson ranked second-best in elusive rating (94.8), behind only Chubb, and has ranked top-two in receiving missed tackles forced in three of the past four seasons.
_________________________
"We'll see how much Brat...errr..........Baker improves w/out Hue in his way."

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#1649392 - 08/13/19 06:29 AM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: MemphisBrownie]
Dawgs4Life Online   content

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Registered: 09/11/06
Posts: 41576
Loc: Edinboro, PA
J/c

I have to think that Chubbís value is sky high since the Duke trade. Heís going to get a ton of work, especially until week 10
_________________________
"First down as we threaten again. A score here puts us in the Super Bowl. Odell is far to the left as Landry settles into the slot. Njoku is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Hunt are split in the backfield as Baker takes the snap ... Here we go."

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#1649398 - 08/13/19 07:34 AM Re: 2019 Daily Fantasy Football [Re: Dawgs4Life]
MemphisBrownie Online   content

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Registered: 03/01/13
Posts: 9925
Loc: Cleveland
I would agree, particulary in Week 1 perhaps. If the Browns get out to a healthy lead mid-game, Chubb could get a lot of volume to burn out the clock. An interesting thing on DraftKings, however, is that a lot of RBs are in great spots in and around Chubb's price tag:

Bell- $7.1K
Chubb- $6.4K
D.Williams- $6.3K (now with the first team with the highest team total in Week 1)
Fournette- $6.1K
Cook-$6.0K (going up against a funnel defense in ATL that was terrible against pass catching RBs)
K. Johnson- $5.8K (Similar to Chubb as they got rid of Riddick and are in a pace up game against ARZ)
Mack- $5.6K (not as high as other RBs on this list)
Ekeler- $5.5K (Gordon situation pending, of course)

There are a lot of guys bunched up within $900 of one another, with Bell being a little bit of an outlier. Ownership projections will be a key part of determining who I'll have the most of (because I will play most, if not all, of them in GPPs) but I think Chubb's ownership could get lost in the mix of all those guys and could do very well in tournaments because of that.
_________________________
"We'll see how much Brat...errr..........Baker improves w/out Hue in his way."

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