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DK and FanDuel pricing for Week 1 shouldn't be that far away. To kick start the season, here is an interesting article about recency bias and how to be successful in tournaments.

Disclaimer: This article serves a promotion for a service that can be paid for on the site but the general mindset regarding WRs is right on.
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Hermsmeyer: How The Buy-Low Model Works

In daily fantasy there are a number of ways to get an edge. Two of the most powerful strategies – especially in tournaments – are to identify cheap players set to have a big week, and to own at least one player the public is fading to create differentiation in your line ups.

The Air Yards Buy-Low Model we will publish each week here on Establishtherun.com was built to help identify receivers who fit both criteria. How it goes about accomplishing these goals is important to leveraging the results it spits out, so what follows is a bit on the theory behind the model and why it’s useful.

Wide receivers are crucial to cashing in tournaments (and particularly DraftKings tournaments) because the top performers at the position tend to score the most points in a given week. The chart below shows the average weekly DK score for the top 12 players at each position by season. Since 2004 the top scorer in a given week is very likely to have been a wide receiver. Moreover, at no point since 2000 have the top 12 in a given week averaged below 25 DK points, which can’t be said for any other position.



The problem with wide receivers is that it’s harder to predict who will be in the top-12 in a given week compared to running backs or quarterbacks. Running backs are volume dependent and that volume is often easy to see coming. Injuries and past behavior by certain coaches and playcallers make identifying likely bell-cows relatively straightforward. Under center, quarterback value is driven by efficiency and that can also be projected fairly reliably on a week-to-week basis based on a player’s historical production.

Receivers, on the other hand, are a special breed. They flood the field in a typical NFL game. Three wide receiver sets have been the base offense in the NFL for years, and the progression to spread concepts that attack the field horizontally with five legitimate receiving threats shows no signs of letting up.

To unearth who has the best chance to be a top performer in a given week, you can’t just limit yourself to the studs. While great WRs give you a solid floor each week, they are often expensive and their down weeks are unpredictable. Below is a plot of Julio Jones and Juju Smith-Schuster’s DK points by week in 2018. You can see that each player exhibits a scoring pattern reminiscent of a sine wave, with high scoring games sometimes immediately followed by low scoring ones. Nowhere in DFS is recency bias more expensive to your bankroll than at the wide receiver position.



Crucially, the up and down pattern above exists for every WR in the NFL, regardless of their skill set. So the question becomes, can we time those breakout games somehow? Are there leading indicators that can help us forecast when a breakout week is coming and take advantage?

The answer is yes. Each week on Establish The Run I’ll post a list of receivers who have recently underperformed their opportunity as measured by things like targets and air yards. Typically 40-60% of the players identified on the list will outperform their implied value, and on many weeks you’ll see one in a Milly Maker lineup. In fact, in 2018 a buy-low model player made a Milly Maker lineup each of the five first weeks of the season.

The model works because volume is “sticky.” Teams and quarterbacks target receivers that they want to see get the ball. If a player gets eight targets with lots of air yards behind them, but he only catches one or two balls for 20 yards, many will begin to fade the player. If he has multiple games like this they may write him off entirely, making him low-owned.

But often what we thought was clear evidence that a player was bad turns out to simply be variance. Teams will come back to that receiver in the future and pepper him with opportunity when the opposing team – and the public – least expects it. And because touchdowns follow WRs who get opportunity, when a player finally starts catching those passes and he eventually gets on the right side of variance, he doesn’t simply turn in an average game. He crushes his projection and delivers a crooked number for his owners.

While the model is based entirely on the math and numbers, Evan and Adam will layer in their expert analysis on the players identified by the model each week for those that enjoy the human touch. I also believe in transparency. Each week of the regular season I’ll report the results of model backtesting for calibration purposes before the games. I’ll post the results of the model predict vs. actual in the following week’s column. We’ll also provide tips for using the model in your line up construction process, and I’ll call out QB/receiver stacks that I think make sense in a given week.

We’re less than two months away from kickoff. I can’t wait to get started. LFG.

https://establishtherun.com/2019/07/15/hermsmeyer-how-the-buy-low-model-works/


I've already starting entering a bunch of best ball tournaments on DRAFT but really looking forward to when the DK pricing comes out. Last year it came out around this time, which many thought was earlier than in previous years, but it is what it is.

I have a Dawgtalkers group open on DK and if a group of people wanted to play in weekly contests ($1-$3; 50/50) I'm happy to share the group access link if you want to share your DK profile name in a PM.

Enjoy.

WRs are very difficult to predict after you get past the top few guys (Julio, Hopkins, Thomas, etc) ... last year it seemed to be a pretty big crap shoot, and I think a lot of it has to do with teams’ game plans of attacking LBs/Safeties ... stuff that we aren’t privy to

Even still, it's not the easiest to predict those three.

I did something last year and will probably do it again (perhaps even more aggressive) this season in tournaments...If there is a great matchup for a team where the CB ratings, coverage, etc. are simply bad and the game total for that team is high, I decreased my ownership of the #1 guy (because he was going to be so popular anyway) and significantly increased ownership on the #2-#4 WRs (with some TE exposure as well) and stacked them with the starting QB in many lineups. I most likely took the #1 WR in cash if it wasn't too cost prohibitive.

The game that sticks in my mind was when Calvin Ridley went off for three TDs early in the season but so many people were on Jones due to the favorable matchup overall.

Good tactic probably .. I like to look at the #2/#3 WR when teams have bad secondaries ... usually they dedicate so much coverage to the #1 guy that the others end up hurting them more

Like, when we were bad for so long, other teams’ other options (think of the Bengals with AJ Green) would hurt us more

j/c:

Some DK RB pricing I'm interested to see in Wk. 1:

Austin Ekeler: For obvious reasons, it looks as though AE will be the number one back and has been extremely efficient when given the ball. I bet his price tag jumps for Week 1.

Kerryon Johnson: Because of today's news of the Riddick release. Would have been very interested to have known what it would have been in DK pricing came out BEFORE Riddick was cut. I'm guessing it will increase now.

Chubb/Johnson: I don't know who much DK factors offensive line in any way when it comes to building their pricing but the Browns' o- line ranking has dropped in the eyes of some. I wonder if this will result in a lower price tag for both guys?

David Johnson: Not sure what the heck happened with Johnson last season but I'm leaning toward coaching and a terrible use of the RB's skillset. He could bounce back with better QB play and a renewed focus on his usage. Could be a buy low target early on in the season.

If i ask questions will u answer them? ...

LOL

No. I only help out Sashiettes.

I thanked him when he left ... *L* ...

Guess i’ll try asking a question and see what happens ...

Either way ..

LETS GOOOOOOOOoooooooooo ...

And Week 1 pricing is live!

Kerryon Johnson @ 5.8K

Ekeler@ 5.5K (Yes!)

Chubb @ 6.4K

Duke Johnson @ $3.5K (Yes!)

David Johnson @ 7.7K ( I think Draftkings is expecting a bounce back year for DJ)

Also, Baker is the fifth most expensive QB @ 6.4K

Your not worried about Jackson at all? ...

I know last year when MG was out Jackson got a lot of run ... i know at first Ekeler was hurtbut as he got healthier Jackson still got some run and played pretty well ...

Who the lions play week 1? ...

I’d be all over Justin Jackson ... he’s got such a higher upside and might just slide into Gordon’s spot

AK= Austin Ekeler. Should have been AE.

Specifically for the Browns:

J/c

I have to think that Chubb’s value is sky high since the Duke trade. He’s going to get a ton of work, especially until week 10

I would agree, particulary in Week 1 perhaps. If the Browns get out to a healthy lead mid-game, Chubb could get a lot of volume to burn out the clock. An interesting thing on DraftKings, however, is that a lot of RBs are in great spots in and around Chubb's price tag:

Bell- $7.1K
Chubb- $6.4K
D.Williams- $6.3K (now with the first team with the highest team total in Week 1)
Fournette- $6.1K
Cook-$6.0K (going up against a funnel defense in ATL that was terrible against pass catching RBs)
K. Johnson- $5.8K (Similar to Chubb as they got rid of Riddick and are in a pace up game against ARZ)
Mack- $5.6K (not as high as other RBs on this list)
Ekeler- $5.5K (Gordon situation pending, of course)

There are a lot of guys bunched up within $900 of one another, with Bell being a little bit of an outlier. Ownership projections will be a key part of determining who I'll have the most of (because I will play most, if not all, of them in GPPs) but I think Chubb's ownership could get lost in the mix of all those guys and could do very well in tournaments because of that.

After Luck's retirement, I am wary of playing much Marlon Mack. Duke Johnson at $3.5K looks really nice for the time being. I wonder if Houston will sign back within the next two weeks. If not, Duke should get some serious opporunity in both the pass and run games.

Jacoby Brisset is @ $4.4K on DK. Might be worth a few tournament lineups as I'm guessing he will be needing to pass a ton being down.

Currently, Nick Chubb's ownership projection for Week One is at 8.8% in GPPs (DraftKings). That will change most likely. If it remained that low Sunday morning of Week One, it would be a really good opportunity to differentiate in GPPs. The run blocking after this preseason concerns me but I still wouldn't think it would stop me from more than the field against in a decent team line total.

j/c:

Cash Lineup Quandry:

Fournette (RB)
Cook (RB)
Barkley/McCaffrey (FL)
H.Henry (TE)

OR

Fournette (RB)
Cook (RB)
Carson (FL)
Kelce (TE)

Considering a swap of Fournette for Chubb as well. Not sure about our recent offensive line run blocking issues and the propensity of the Monken/Kitchens offense to pass that I can fully commit to Chubb in a cash lineup. But it is a situation of a RB playing as a home favorite. And like Cook, could be the second/third highest owned cash game RB so it could also be a case of playing him, like in Hollywood Squares, for the block.

Too many good RBs in good spots.

I like the option with Kelce/Carson ... i love Carson this week ... huge favorite at home and all they want to do is run the ball ...

I would ride Barkely all year my man. Hes literally NY only weapon and is gonna get mad touches. He is going to rack up points.

I’d have trouble banking on Cook honestly

Went with McCaffrey, Cook, and Carson w/ Henry. Worked out nicely in cash.

Did ok with Wentz, Cook, Ekeler, Cooper and Engram as my top 5 scores.

What hurt was Chubb only getting 10 and I had to use Dolphins D after all money used up. I should have moved someone out to make CMC fit instead of Chubb, lesson learned. Still came out on the positive though.

Week One Recap:

Had a decent afternoon. I won all entered double-up contests and all head-to-heads minus 4 or 5. I did something different this year and max-entered 150 lineups in a cheap tournament on DK. My ROI in the tournament was not good but it was fun to do. Lesson learned- I need to make my player pool much smaller and commit to certain players and/or games.

Cash Game Lineup: 185.72
QB: C. Wentz- 28.02
RB: D. Cook- 29.00
RB: C. McCaffrey- 45.90
WR: C. Samuel- 6.20
WR: C. Godwin- 14.30
WR; D. Westbrook- 14.20
TE: H. Henry- 10.00
FL: C Carson- 25.10
DF: Ravens- 13.00

Best Tournament Lineup: 223.80 (roughly 50 points away from the top score)
QB: M. Stafford- 31.60
RB: L.Bell- 23.20
RB: C. McCaffrey- 45.90
WR. L. Fitzgerald- 28.30
WR: D. Amendola- 26.40
WR: R. Woods- 16.96
TE: E. Engram- 31.60
FL: K. Johnson- 8.20
DF: Seahwaks- 12.00

So my approach this season (in tournaments, at least) is to be more deliberate in stacking and correlation plays across my ENTIRE lineup. Here, I went heavy on a Detroit stack of Stafford, Amendola, and Johnson and ran it back with Fizgerald on the other side of the field. All of my teams paired a QB with his receiver, and in some cases, two recievers or a pass catching RB. Correlation also existed between CMC and Robert Woods in the same game with a high game total. In the lineup optimizer I use, I allocated a heavy % of RB-DEF correlation, but in this case, the lineup didn't work out that way. Substituting C. Carson with the Seahawks DEF would have increased my score by almost 20 points. I might increase the weight I put on the RB-DEF correlations for Week 2. You can see I did the same thing with correlations in the next best tournament lineup..

2nd Best Tournament Lineup- 222.30
QB: D. Prescott- 36.40
RB: M. Ingram- 25.70
RB: L. Bell- 23.20
WR. J. Brown- 28.30
WR: A. Cooper- 25.60
WR: M. Gallup- 25.80
TE: E. Engram- 31.60
FL: D. Johnson- 25.70
DF: Browns- 0.00

Again, stack Dak-Cooper-Gallup and ran it back with Engram on the other side. Then Ingram-Brown and then L.Bell on the other side. No RB-DEF correlation yet again.

Not sure if there is a point to posting these anymore but it helps me with my reflections on the past week, so here we go:

Week 2 Recap

I had a very frustrating Sunday regarding cash and GPPs. I did not make the cash line in any of the Double Up Contests I entered and broke even in the several head-to-head matchups. In the double ups, I missed the cash line by just 2 points and that added a little vinegar to the wound, so to speak. In GPPs, I had a -49% ROI as I faded both Mahomes and Jackson. Not a smart move on my part and went with Brady, Carr, Goff, Rothlisberger, Allen, & Wilson in my lineups. Mahomes and Jackson were the two highest owned QBs and opted to invest in lower-owned QBs at a cheaper price.

Cash Lineup- 132.52

QB: J. Allen- 22.22
RB: A. Ekeler- 24.30
RB: J. Jacobs- 9.90
WR: K. Allen- 17.80
WR: T. Williams- 15.60
WR: J. Smith-Schuster- 13.40
TE: D. Waller- 12.30
FL: A. Kamara- 7.00
DF: Texans- 10.00

The biggest issue was Big Ben going down in the PIT- SEA game. That left very little ceiling for JuJu after that happened. I'd assume I would have made the cash line if Ben would have not been injured. Josh Jacobs was the highest owned player in cash so, although he didn't make value, he is not the reason for missing the line. Everyone had him. I still think the process was correct, just things didn't work out in my favor with one particular injury.

Best GPP Lineup- 178.02
QB: D. Carr- 11.72
RB: J. Connor- 13.50
RB: S. Michel- 13.50
WR: C. Kupp- 20.60
WR: T. Williams- 15.60
WR: D. Metcalf- 15.10
TE: T. Kelce- 26.70
FL: A. Ekeler- 24.30
DF: Patriots- 37.00

Here I went with a OAK stack and ran it back with a KC player. I believe I did a lot of that. Truth be told if you went with a heavy KC stack of Mahomes, Kelce, Robinson, and ran it back with T. Willams w/ Patriots D, you were sitting pretty. Go even more contrarian with a TE in your flex spot off a even heavier KC-OAK game stack with Waller, that would have been a really good lineup.

I was very heavy on the OAK side of this game as well and the PIT- SEA game. I thought that could have been a shoot out. Once Big Ben went down, I knew a good chuck of my lineups were dead.

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However, with that all said and having a bad Sunday, I made it up last night playing the CLE-NYJ Showdown slate and took home an ROI of 926%. I ended up in 4th place (tied with probably 30 other people who had the same lineup) in a contest of roughly 119,000 other lineups. It was technically the second-highest scoring lineup but three other people tied for first, thus the 4th place designation. Take away the Mayfield interception and it would have been the highest scoring lineup....or one more D. Johnson catch. Still, it was a ton of fun to watch unfold. It was a 20 entry max tournament and went ahead and entered all 20.

Best Showdown Lineup- 121.55 (first place was 122.35)

CPT: O. Beckham- 46.65 (1.5x)
FLEX: B. Mayfield- 19.00
FLEX: L. Bell- 21.90
FLEX: Browns D- 13.00
FLEX: A. Seibert- 13.00
FLEX: D. Johnson- 8.00

I went very heavy in my twenty lineups putting Beckham in the Captain slot (Higgins was 2nd until listed as inactive), and each one of those lineups paired him with Baker and usually ran it back with Bell. With Darnold out, I assummed Bell would be getting plenty of opportunity. My biggest win was playing a ton of D'Earnest Johnson. Johnson was only $200. For people that play showdown slates, that is extremely cheap. It's essentially a free square. With Hillard out, I thought Johnson would see more looks in the passing game and would EASILY make value. He did. Plus it allowed me to pay up for the combo of Beckham, Mayfield, and Bell.

So what started out as a bad Week 2 ended up on the plus side of things as a result of last night's game.

Not that u care but i enjoy reading them ....

Week Three Recap. (Probably not doing MNF slate)

Overall ROI: 58.2%
Thurday Night Showdown ROI: 186% (Didn't play all that much so the % is a bit misleading)
Sunday Cash Games ROI: 96%- Made cash line in all Double-Ups and won the majority of Head-to-Heads
Sunday Main Game GPPs ROI: -36% (Max entered 150 lineups)
Sunday Night Shwodown ROI: -27.5% (Max entered 20 lineups)


Thursday Night Showdown: 88.36
CPT: L Fournette: 22.80 (1.5x)
FL: M.Mariota: 18.56
FL: D. Walker: 13.40
FL: D. Chark: 17.60
FL: Titans D: 1.00
FL: Jaguars D: 15.00

Didn't put much thought into this contest as I only entered one lineup. I don't usually like putting RBs into the Captain slot but I thought he would be used so much in this game with the weather concerns. Titans D didn't perform and I was off on the better plays by a decent amount.

Cash Game Lineup: 184.62
QB: K. Murray- 19.82
RB: E. Elliot- 18.90
RB: D. Cook- 27.30
WR: K. Allen- 46.60
WR: J. Washington- 3.40
WR: N. Agholor- 24.00
TE: G. Olsen- 25.50
FL: A. Ekeler- 15.10
DF: Chargers- 4.00

For this lineup, I wrestled with putting in either Zeke or CMC. I opted for Zeke because he was playing at home and was favored. Even through CMC outperformed him, I'd still make the same decision. Pass-catching RBs as a home favorite will usually pay dividends. Still, CMC had a great game and played a lot of him in GPPs. Once PIT announced that Donte Moncrief was inactive, I went with a very cheap James Washington as it allowed me to fit in other plays I really liked. He had a lot of opportunties for more points, but in the end, he busted. Algholor was the free sqaure and K. Allen drove my lineup into the cash line.

Best GPP Lineup: 217.60
QB: J. Winston- 29.50
RB: D. Cook- 27.30
RB: F. Gore- 16.90
WR: M. Evans- 48.00
WR: J. Edelman- 19.20
WR: S. Shepard- 30.10
TE: T. Eifert- 2.80
FL: C. Mc Caffrey- 30.80
DF: Panthers- 13.00

Lots of correlations in this lineup starting with a game stack of the TB-NYG game w/ Winston-to-Evans and running it back with Sterling Shepard. Secondly, I had Gore and Eifert correlation from the BUF-CIN game. Finally, CMC with his team defense. Edelman going down hurt this lineup quite a bit as he was off to a very strong start. And once again, I have no issue taking feature backs that can catch the ball, regardless of their ownership projections in GPPs.

The top lineup in this particular GPP was 275.04 with a some common themes. This person stacked the TB-NYG game but went even heavier with three Giants players and ran it back with Mike Evans.

Sunday Night Showdown Best Lineup: 115.06
CPT: B. Cooks- 34.50
FL: O. Beckham- 11.60
FL: J. Goff- 17.16
FL: C. Kupp- 36.20
FL: G. Zuerlein- 10.00
FL: D. Ratley- 5.60

I wish I would have had a lineup with Cooks and Kupp switched. I had a couple of lineups with Kupp but not with him and Cooks, I don't believe.

Pretty Big News

Week 4 Recap

Overall, I had a 74.7% ROI for the Thursday game and the Sunday slate. I made the cash line in all single entry double ups and won most head-to-heads. In GPPs, I had a 29.3% ROI and this is the first week I finally had a positive ROI in tournaments. Like I mentioned last week, I wanted to narrow down my player pool and I luckily selected a lot of the right guys that performed well yesterday. What started out as roughly 100 players in Week One with various percentage allocations decreased yesterday to 65 players in my GPP lineups. It could probably be widdled down some more as well by taking bigger stands on players.

Cash Lineup- 163.40
QB: D. Jones- 14.3
RB: C. McCaffrey- 33.9
RB: W. Gallman- 28.8
WR: K. Allen- 9.8
WR: C. Kirk- 8.3
WR: P. Richardson- 4.4
TE: W. Dissly- 18.7
FL: A. Ekeler- 29.2
DF: Seahawks- 16.0

The slate got a bit interesting towards the end of the week when both Justin Jackson and Mike Williams were ruled out against a rebuilding Dolphins team. Outside of sprinkling in some Dontrell Inman in GPPs, I knew Ekeler and Allen were locks to play in my lineup, (1) because they should be receiving the majority of opportunity and touches, and (2) most other cash players would also have them, so essentially you were playing them for the block. In Washington, Terry McLaurin was the popular player all week because of volume and overall high game total. When Sunday rolled around and he was officially ruled out, it was either Richardson or Quinn in cash. I saw some lineups that played both. Again, in cash, you knew these guys were going to he too highly owned to fade so you had to play them in your lineups. And oddly enough, that is what is so unique about cash games, those players can have bad games, and because the majority of people are on them, you're still very much in it. The cash line this week was lower because so many people were playing the same people...this is a strategy most people don't utilize enough in my opinion. Also, people still undervalue pass-catching RBs and that was the case with CMC this week as most people paid down for C. Carson or M. Mack. CMC was roughly 30-40% owned in cash contests....that's seemed low to me.

Best GPP Lineup- 199.48 (1,055th place out of 237,812)
QB: J. Goff- 27.68
RB: C. Carson- 21.50
RB: M. Ingram- 9.1
WR: C. Godwin- 44.2
WR: S. Watkins- 7.4
WR: R. Woods- 32.4
TE: T. Hockenson- 11.7
FL. L. Fournette- 29.5
DF: Seahawks- 16

Winning lineup scored 258.20 pts, so I was rather far off.

For the week I had alot of exposure to the Rams, Seahawks, & Lions due to the fact I was playing their QBs in tons of my GPP lineups. My TB exposure came primarily as a result of running it back with the WR in a Rams stack and the same thing was true with Chiefs players although I had a large % of Watkins in other lineups as well. I thought he was in a great spot in a dome against the Lions. I thought we'd see alot of Ingram yesterday and I correlated Carson w/ Seattle D. Watkins and Hockenson was a correlation in a game as well. I wish I would have played more Godwin as he was 1.7% owned in the tournament I played in.

Woods was a great play yesterday ... in fact, that entire game was crazy

j/c:

I have been playing Daily Fantasy football and basketball on Fan Duel for the last few years or so. I joined DraftKings this year because they had a promo going and I decided to play FF on both sites.

But man............DraftKings site is really bad. They have some good contest options, but Fan Duel is so much more user friendly and DraftKings seems shady. I even wrote to them about their scoring and received some lame excuse. I could be mistaken about the scoring because it seems unlikely they would cheat, but it was pretty blatant. But, even if I am wrong about that................Fan Duel is so much more user friendly that there is no comparison between the sites.

Kupp had a nice run towards the end of the game that racked up significant points for people. If people stacked the right people in that game, they were sitting pretty.

Yeah that game was like an arena game

Interesting post. Thanks!