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Cleveland Browns: Can they finally win a game? How can they be favored?

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2019/11...be-favored.html

By Terry Pluto, The Plain Dealer
CLEVELAND – Talking to myself about the Browns as they face the Buffalo Bills in FirstEnergy Stadium on Sunday:

QUESTION: Did you see who is favored in this game?

ANSWER: It should be Buffalo.

Q: Guess again.

A: The Browns? The 2-6 Browns are supposed to beat the 6-2 Bills?

Q: The Browns are the home team, right?

A: They are a home team with an 0-3 record in Cleveland. The Browns have lost four in a row. If this were fantasy football, you’d favor the Browns. They have more talent on paper.

Q: But it’s not played on paper.

A: Exactly. A Buffalo News story explained how fans keep betting on the Browns despite the team losing nearly every week. Like many in media (I plead guilty), they bought into the hype. Some are betting on the team to turn around. They have the Browns favored by three points.

Q: Can they beat Buffalo?

A: Of course they can. They also were good enough to beat Denver, but they didn’t. They were good enough to beat Baltimore, 40-25. I look in the rear view mirror and wonder how that happened in week four of the regular season.

Q: Look at the record. Buffalo has played two teams with winning records (New England, Philadelphia) and lost both games. Their six victories are against teams with a combined 9-42 record.

A: At 2-6, the Browns fit into the category of the teams Buffalo has been beating. Until they begin to win a few games, it makes no sense to look at the Browns as a good team.

Q: Is there a concrete reason they can beat the Bills?

A: ESPN’s Marcel Louis-Jacques wrote the Bills have “allowed a league-high 422 yards interior rushing over the past three weeks." The Browns have powerhouse running back Nick Chubb. They also have Kareem Hunt coming off suspension. Two big time runners...

Q: What about the offensive line?

A: That’s a key. Coach Freddie Kitchens mentioned right guard Wyatt Teller needs to do a better job run blocking. They have veterans (center JC Tretter, guard Joel Bitonio) at the other interior line spots. I’d like to see the Browns use more play-action. Let Baker Mayfield fake the ball to Chubb, then look to Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry on some quick slant patterns. Develop a flow with Chubb’s determined runs and play off him to set up the passing game.

Q: Isn’t that pretty simple?

A: Good football doesn’t have to be complicated when you have talented players.

Q: Why is Buffalo winning?

A: You can say it’s due to playing bad teams, but the Bills have held the opposition to only 16.4 points per game. That’s No. 3 in the NFL. When they lost to New England, the final score was 16-10. They only score 19.8 points per game. They win ugly. . . . but they win.

Q: How are they with penalties?

A: They have been flagged 61 times (18th in NFL) compared to 75 for Browns (worst in NFL). Browns Coach Freddie Kitchens said: "They are conscientiousness of everything they are doing. They play with great passion and do not make mistakes. Everybody seems to do their job on a regular basis.”

Q: And the Browns?

A: Mayfield has not thrown more than one TD pass in a game all year. Beckham has caught one TD pass in the first eight games. Same for Jarvis Landry. Beckham caught 5-of-6 passes thrown to him last week in Denver. The talent is obvious.

Q: Who leads the Browns in TD catches?

A: You can win a lot of money on this...Ricky Seals-Jones and Demetrius Harris...each with two.

Q: What are the Browns saying?

A: Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken: “When you have a great player like him (Beckham), you are always looking for ways to involve him in the offense. There’s only one ball. That’s the way it is. Bottom line is the frustration comes from losing and not scoring points in the red zone.”

Q: Hard to argue with that.

A: Monken used the “there’s only one ball” line twice at his Thursday press conference. Can’t argue with that, either. But the key is what you do with the one ball. Of course, they had only one ball last year and made it work. It’s not like they took away an extra ball.

Q: What at Buffalo’s offense?

A: Get ready for the running game. Frank Gore, Devin Singletary and QB Josh Allen have combined to rush for 951 yards (4.7-yard average). Kitchens talked about how the athletic Allen: “When you win with your feet, that is always an advantage."

Q: OK, what about this game?

A: I want to pick the Browns, but...

Q: But what?

A: But I don’t trust them: Buffalo 17, Browns 13. My record is 5-3 picking Browns games this season.

Why are Browns favored over Bills? Oddsmakers explain

https://buffalonews.com/2019/11/05/buffalo-bills-cleveland-browns-nfl-betting-lines-point-spreads/

The Bills are 6-2 and 3-0 on the road. The Cleveland Browns are 2-6 and 0-3 at home.

Buffalo seemingly should be an obvious favorite heading into Sunday's game at FirstEnergy Stadium. But instead the Browns opened as a three-point favorite Sunday night, although the line has already moved to two in some places.

Why?

Because the bettors have been all over the Browns even as their odds plummeted from 25-1 to win the Super Bowl to 66-1. And the line follows the public's expectation.

The Browns were favored by four points over the Denver Broncos, who were playing without starting quarterback Joe Flacco. The Browns lost the game, 24-19.

"Eighty percent of the money was on the Browns last week, and this has been the way the public has gone most of the season," Adam Burns, the sports book manager for BetOnline.ag, said. "Browns games have been a great result for the book.

"Despite the Browns’ poor record this season, especially at home, they have opened as a 3-point favorite in this game mostly due to public perception. That may be changing as the game has already been bet down to two points.”

The Bills-Browns line was among the longest discussions as CG Technology in Las Vegas attempted to set the line. The range was from a pick 'em game to Browns by three and CG Technology eventually settling on Browns by 2 1/2 as the opening line.

The sports book was trying to see what would be enough to attract the early betting.

"The Bills’ schedule is what it is, but they haven’t really played anybody," said Dave Sharapan, an oddsmaker/risk analyst at CG. "That’s the discussion that keeps coming up, but all they do is win games and play good defense. ... I’ve been against the Browns all season. I don’t think they’re good and I don’t think Freddie Kitchens is a good coach.

"This is the most debate we’ve had on a Bills line in weeks."

The Bills are 5-3 against the spread and 3-0 against the spread on the road. The Browns are 2-6 against the spread and 0-3 against the number at home.

So, what gives?

"I don’t when the betting public will jump off the Browns' train," Sharapan said. "They’ve been backing the browns week after week and week and burning their money week after week. I can see the public asking how are the Browns favored? It does not make any sense, so give me the Bills. I can see it going that way. The line is going down before it goes up."

Playbook.com's Marc Lawrence, who provides selections on Bills' games for the News, said he expect the line to drop to closer to a pick 'em as the week goes on.

"The Browns are in total disarray," Lawrence said.

#stillamericasteam

It might be time for Freddie to dust off the wishbone...

Whatever works!

Two backs all day.

Trying to take a quick look at the Bills, their defense must be respectable to say the least, they held the Titans to 7 points, and the Patriots to 16 in a loss.

One thing I know the patriots don't do, is run the ball right at you all day,
maybe the best way to attack them is to run the ball right at them all day long, and use all available backs, including the quarterback, and the New guy Hunt, and the mainstay so far Chubb, and even Hilliard, and maybe even others if they want to get in on the fun.

Run it down their throats, and repeat.

Big pass plays on occasion,

and of course, the Tight ends are so important.

I feel, if the Browns just do the right thing for once, this is a very winnable game.

and Get ahead in the turnover ratio too.

Problem is; we know this ain't in the 2019 Browns' offenses' vocabulary.

Question, have they used a 2 Rb set on even one single play this entire season, so far??

We like the same kind of football!

Freddie had better change his plan of attack. Be flexible Frederick!

Run Da Bawl.

Our mascot is named Social Justice?

What could go wrong?

I know you're just joking about Swagger Jr.

I'd rather they named him "Earnest". The Browns have more swagger than is good for them.

This is stupid.

Keep politics out of sports.

It better be Swagger Jr.

No need to get snippy about it. It wasn't me who called him "SJ".

It wasn't directed towards you. It was directed towards the NFL.

Oh, good, I was almost triggered there for a second ...

That's suprising. Buffalo has been very good this year.

I have lost a lot of faith in the Browns. I just feel like this year is lost, we will likely be going through a coaching change, and I fear that John Dorsey is a bit too power hungry (just as we saw in KC) and will not hire the right guy when the time comes. Freddie looks like a big miss at this point.

I'll still watch, but man this team is lost right now. I feel like there is a pretty good team in there somewhere, but really they have only showed up once all year in the Baltimore game.

Just who is S.J. anyway, and if they're talking about the mascot?

Why! Why are you talking about a mascot ON A 2-6 TEAM! THAT'S 4 GAMES OUT OF THE RACE AT THE HALFWAY POINT


And Ain't made the pla,, (sorry, "not saying that word")
IN 20 YEARS!

Gimmicks don't matter; Wins do.

Like many games this year, on paper we could absolutely win this. Also like many games this year, we will commit stupid mistakes, lack discipline and make ridiculous coaching decisions that will guarantee a loss.

I typically bet on our game either way, but today I stayed away

Buffalo's secondary is one of the better ones (Poyer and Hyde are amongst the best safety tandems) White is an elite corner, Levi Wallace has been better than advertised. I worry with our miscommunications in the passing game, they will take advantage of that.

Also big boy Jordan Phillips (who I was wanting when Miami dumped him) Has been a monster inside this year.

Praying for a W, but expecting another L

Swagger Jr: 1-0

To all, I'm here to eat my crow. A Browns win feels great. If that means I have to lose money to do it, so be it.

In your defense we did everything in our power to lose.

Very lucky they missed 2 FGs

Another brilliant and immaculate Cleveland win! Just so exhausted watching our game with our club at the bar. Code-blue Kids. We had much to do to pull this one out. We did it. Just an ugly win. Lots of bad stuff from which to learn. Some of FK's plays are truly stupid. It seems the closer we get to goal line, the more chaotic it gets. Glad to see Higgins at the end.

Let's not see a skinny win at the end as sold validation of the lunatic fringe around our play. We did plenty to mess up and fail to execute.

We won. 'Nuff said.

I play a parlay card every now and then but I'm glad I'm not a betting man because I would have been all in on Buffalo +3. Seemed like a sure thing. I would have been all over that as well.