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#1699035 11/26/19 05:16 PM
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https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Football Outsiders is giving us a 21.4% chance of making the wildcard. That is the third best of any team (that is not currently winning their division). The two teams ahead of us are Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Buffalo is at 80.7% and Pittsburgh is at 27%. If we beat Pittsburgh this weekend we are in the driver's seat for the sixth spot.

Here is the ESPN Playoff Machine:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

We basically need to be rooting against the Raiders, Colts, Titans, and Steelers. Buffalo losing some games wouldn't hurt either.

cfrs15 #1699091 11/26/19 09:59 PM
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Here is another site from 538. I like their methodology more than most of these other sites.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/

The interesting thing is, we make it more often than not at 9-7 if we beat the Steelers and lose to the Ravens. The only scenario we need to avoid at 9-7 is if we are tied at 9-7 with the titans for the 6 seed. If three teams are tied at 9-7 we win the tiebreaker every time.

If we win this week, our playoff odds go up to around 50%.

Last edited by CleVeLaNd_sTrife; 11/26/19 10:02 PM.
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Originally Posted By: CleVeLaNd_sTrife
Here is another site from 538. I like their methodology more than most of these other sites.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/

The interesting thing is, we make it more often than not at 9-7 if we beat the Steelers and lose to the Ravens. The only scenario we need to avoid at 9-7 is if we are tied at 9-7 with the titans for the 6 seed. If three teams are tied at 9-7 we win the tiebreaker every time.

If we win this week, our playoff odds go up to around 50%.


50% playoff odds going into December?

When's the last time that happened? 2014 I think ended in late November. So maybe 2007?

If we win this week I'll be happy with the season, the rest will be gravy :-D

Also what a weird year, cuz yeah if the Titans lose that's the best case, but if they WIN, then we also need one of those other 3 teams to win in future weeks (Even the Steelers, yuck) so that we can make a 3 way tie lol

cfrs15 #1699110 11/27/19 12:00 AM
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There’s not much point at looking at WC scenarios at this time.
It’s fun, but it’s still early.

Do we need to run the table or can 9-7 get us in?
We have to keep winning, and take it on a week to week basis.


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cfrs15 #1699115 11/27/19 02:07 AM
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Playoffs????? Playoffs?????


cfrs15 #1699121 11/27/19 06:21 AM
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The odds will shoot up if we win Sunday and become nonexistent if we lose


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Originally Posted By: Dawgs4Life
The odds will shoot up if we win Sunday and become nonexistent if we lose


In all seriousness, the Browns have been out of it since the 49er game.

I wanted to say, "is negative 25 an option for odds?"
Negative 10- negative 25% odds I give it,

The odds go down if the Ravens keep winning, still the most viable option is the Ravens losing out and the Browns winning enough to win the division.

Seriously I'd give the Texans, Titans, Bills, Chiefs, Raiders, Ravens>(if the steelers took the division), Patriots>(if the Bills took their division, and Colts as better chances to get the 2 wild card spots than the Browns currently,
and the Jaguars, and Chargers about even par with the Browns chances.

Best Chance is to take the AFC North from the Ravens, and that may be a case of too late for the opportunity as The Browns no longer control their own destiny.


Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
lampdogg #1699262 11/27/19 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted By: lampdogg
Do we need to run the table or can 9-7 get us in?


The AFC is stacked, the Dominance of the Patriots, the resurgence of the Raiders, and the juggarnaught of the AFC South, means I think 9-7 gets Nobody in the afc in, and I wouldn't be surprised if as many as 2, 10-6 teams are home watching the opening round of the playoffs, on the AFC side.


Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
cfrs15 #1699302 11/27/19 05:04 PM
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I thought I heard that whoever loses in our game is eliminated from playoff


Tomorrow is the most important thing in life. Comes into us at midnight very clean. It's perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands. It hopes we've learned something from yesterday. -John Wayne
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Originally Posted By: leadtheway
I thought I heard that whoever loses in our game is eliminated from playoff

Not true by any stretch.


HERE WE GO BROWNIES! HERE WE GO!!
cfrs15 #1699306 11/27/19 05:17 PM
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Crunch the numbers: Playoffs are within reach for Browns
https://www.brownszone.com/2019/11/27/crunch-the-numbers-playoffs-are-within-reach-for-browns/

When the Browns dropped to 2-6 with the 24-19 loss at Denver, I told myself I wouldn’t write about playoff possibilities unless they got back to .500.

Rules are meant to be broken.

Perspective changes with a three-game winning streak, and the push for the playoffs is the most relevant Browns story — when we’re not talking about how crazy the rematch with the Steelers will be on Sunday.

The Browns are 5-6 and can reach .500 by completing the sweep of the Steelers at a hostile Heinz Field. The Browns are a two-point favorite, per BetOnline.ag, the first time they’ve been favored in Pittsburgh since 1989, when they won the opener 51-0.

If they win this time, they’ll deserve to be in the thick of the playoff race.

If they lose, I’ll kick myself for jumping the gun.

A loss to the Steelers (6-5) would not only give the Browns seven losses and force them to win out to have any chance at the postseason, it would put them two games behind the Steelers in the chase for the second AFC wild card spot with four games to play.

(Note: In case anyone was holding out hope the Browns could win the AFC North — you know who you are — those chances disappeared Monday night when the Ravens destroyed the Rams 45-6 in Los Angeles. The Ravens are 9-2, have won seven straight since a 40-25 loss to the Browns and aren’t going to have an epic collapse.)

With five games left, the Bills are 8-3 and hold a two-game lead for the first of two wild card spots. If the Browns were to catch them, Cleveland would own the head-to-head tiebreaker after a 19-16 win Nov. 10.

The race for the second spot is jumbled and could come down to the final day of the season Dec. 29.

The Raiders, Titans, Colts and Steelers are 6-5. The Browns are 5-6. The Jets, Jaguars and Chargers are 4-7 and hoping for a miracle.

If the Browns were to rally to reach the playoffs, that would qualify as divine intervention. No team since divisional realignment in 2002 has started 2-6 and made the playoffs.

Yes, the schedule has gotten easier following a brutal stretch. But the Browns are also playing much better, starting with quarterback Baker Mayfield and getting a powerful push from running back Kareem Hunt.

But going 8-0 or 7-1 to end the season is asking a ton. And the Browns will have to finish without defensive end Myles Garrett, who’s suspended for the rest of the season for the helmet bop of Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph.

The Browns can’t get caught thinking about running the table. They must continue to buy into coach Freddie Kitchens’ “1-0” message.

He started it after the Denver loss, and the Browns have gone 1-0 three times. The point is simplistic — focus on the task at hand, win that week and don’t worry about the big picture, or the playoff picture.

“We kind of had to go into playoff mode a couple of weeks ago, and it is just one game at a time once you get to the playoffs,” Kitchens said Monday. “That is the way it should be all year.”

It’s funny what resonates with players, and when. The 1-0 philosophy isn’t new. In fact, Kitchens has been preaching it since Week 1. But the players finally had no choice but to change their approach.

“That is just where we found ourselves after kind of a rough, rocky start, and that is something we all kind of rallied behind now of just really focusing one week at a time of going out there and doing our jobs and making sure we put our best foot forward to win,” center JC Tretter said.

The Browns have come a long way. They still have a long way to go.

The New York Times calculates their chances of making the playoffs at 22 percent. They had too much ground to make up and too much traffic in their way.

Here’s the main competition, their remaining schedules and a comment.

Bills (8-3): at Dallas, vs. Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, at New England, vs. Jets. Buffalo doesn’t have a gimme left.
Steelers (6-5): vs. Cleveland, at Arizona, vs. Buffalo, at Jets, at Baltimore. Even if Pittsburgh beats the Browns, it faces an uphill climb.
Raiders (6-5): at Kansas City, vs. Tennessee, vs. Jacksonville, at Chargers, at Denver. If Oakland can recover from a throttling by the Jets and split the next two games, it could have the upper hand.
Titans (6-5): at Indianapolis, at Oakland, vs. Houston, vs. New Orleans, at Houston. The toughest schedule of the contenders, which is good for the Browns because Tennessee holds the head-to-head tiebreaker after a 43-13 Week 1 win.
Colts (6-5): vs. Tennessee, at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans, vs. Carolina, at Jacksonville. The Colts may end up regretting a Week 10 loss to the Dolphins.
Browns (5-6): at Pittsburgh, vs. Cincinnati, at Arizona, vs. Baltimore, at Cincinnati. An eight-game winning streak to finish the year will almost certainly get them in. If they stumble, at Arizona would be best, as it wouldn’t compromise their AFC record for potential playoff tiebreakers.
A win Sunday makes all of this relevant.

A loss makes it painfully premature.


You know my love will Not Fade Away.........


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FATE #1699400 11/28/19 01:25 AM
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Originally Posted By: FATE
Originally Posted By: leadtheway
I thought I heard that whoever loses in our game is eliminated from playoff

Not true by any stretch.



actually it is


Tomorrow is the most important thing in life. Comes into us at midnight very clean. It's perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands. It hopes we've learned something from yesterday. -John Wayne
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Originally Posted By: leadtheway
Originally Posted By: FATE
Originally Posted By: leadtheway
I thought I heard that whoever loses in our game is eliminated from playoff

Not true by any stretch.



actually it is


No, it’s not.


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Originally Posted By: bringbackbernie
Originally Posted By: leadtheway
Originally Posted By: FATE
Originally Posted By: leadtheway
I thought I heard that whoever loses in our game is eliminated from playoff

Not true by any stretch.



actually it is


No, it’s not.


willynilly


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The AFC is not stacked, it's actually crap.

Losing to the 49ers, the best team in the league, did not end our playoff chances. If you want to play that game, the Denver loss was crippling.

Mathematically speaking, we could lose Sunday (to the Steelers) and still make the playoffs. The Steelers losing to us would give them the same record as us so they wouldn't be eliminated.

The only bad thing about this weekend is the titans and colts can't both lose. We will be two games back if we lose. On the flip side if we win we'll be tied with one of them. The Texans will also be tied with one of them for the division if they lose to the Patriots.

At this point I expect the Raiders and Bills to lose as well.


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The losses to Seattle and Denver were season ending basically, at least in terms of realistic playoff hopes


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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Originally Posted By: Dawgs4Life
The losses to Seattle and Denver were season ending basically, at least in terms of realistic playoff hopes


Win out and you make the playoffs. Doesn't get any more real than that.

DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2019 NFL Season Looking Back: Browns 13 Steelers 20 Playoff Odds

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