DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2020 NFL Season 2020 NFL Draft Smarter than everybody else

No way to prove it of course, but I agree with what you said in your first sentence. I think there was always room in The Plan to bring in a GM and relieve Sashi of those responsibilities letting him focus on other things.

Not having that guy from the beginning.. was that an unforced error or was it really a matter of circumstance? When DePo was doing his thing in Oakland, he had a guy with baseball cred that he was paired up with who believed in what they were doing. Who would have been the football equivalent?

It is vital for a team to have a "pipeline" of good players from draft after draft. That way you can better manage your cap, paying for your superstars, and allowing other, more average, players to go their way.

Our problem is that we always change coaches and front offices every year to year or 2. Then we change schemes, and have to tear the thing down to the studs, start over, and watch the owner become impatient 3 or 4 games into the season, when everything doesn't go just right.

I do think that most teams do count on their 1st round player, at least, to be a capable starter from the word go. Expensive veterans who can be replaced don't help a team's cap. Starters on rookie contracts do.

I feel there's a variable involved here. The best teams draft much later in the draft. That's just the way things are set up. If names were just drawn out of hat and one of the best teams drew a top 10 pick, I'm pretty sure they would expect that player to be a starter.

That was one of my earlier points.

I think you misread what I said and are taking it too literally... LOL, I said ideally.


The most winning teams in the last 10 years are the Patriots, Packers, Steelers, Seattle, and Saints. All of these teams tend to bring their rookies into their culture with their programs and let them get them acclimated. They groom backup players (in general) into roles that will replace their current players.


Meanwhile, in the last 10 years, we have the worst record in the NFL and we are constantly throwing rookies into the fires of hell and wonder why they all turn out to be busts.

I would bet half of the players we drafted would have been pro-bowlers on these five teams. That is why Bellicheck loves picking up our scraps. We don't give players a chance to get their bearings and they develop tons of bad habits with 0 support and mentoring.

So, yes, ideally, we would stop throwing most of our draft picks in the frying back on opening day. We have definitely proved over the same timespan that this approach doesn't work.

The Andrew Berry we just hired ... *L* ...

Thats a great question ... i don’t know the answer but teams have been using some form of analytics for a decade now so they were out there ...

Like u said ... we;LL never know and as peed i am they forced KJ out I think this may work out well ... I’m impressed with this group so far ...

IF the draft picks pan out .... the LT has to be at least a double .. but if they pan out we’ll be in good hands ...

Looking at the names that went between our picks, none of them jump out as names that we would have been looking at. None were LBs and Harrison was still on the board. Maybe Zuniga, Gallimore, Greenard, or Ojemudia, but mostly looked like RBs and non scheme fit OL. Both those Edge might be more 3-4 OLBs (this might apply to Baun, too). Some TEs, but we had signed Hooper and still got Bryant.

If we get someone nice next year, it'll be a great trade. As it is, I'm not sure it cost us anyone we would've drafted otherwise. We still chose to pass again on the player most are complaining about.

Actually, when I wrote my original post on this thread I used the term immediate impact. I never said starter. In any case, I did a little research on rookie starters from the 2019 draft. I limited it to the first round. So there were actually more than are listed below. Teams with multiple picks in round 1 actually started more than one rookie.

I found a list of the first round picks from the 2019 draft. Then I went to Ourlads and used their NFL depth chart drop-down menu to see where these players appeared on their team's depth chart.

Admittedly these aren't official depth charts but they are fairly reliable.

It's actually easier to list the players and teams whose first round selection was not designated as a starter.

Hockenson, TE Detroit

Gary, DL, Green Bay

Jonah Williams, OT, Cincinnati. Was listed as the starter but I read this week the was out all year with an injury.

Simmons, DL, Tenn. Wasn't a starter due to injury but he played on their playoff roster after recovering from knee.

Tillery, DL, LAC.

N. Harry, WR, NE listed as a starter but I believed he was benched during the season. Placing him on either the starter or nonstarter list doesn't change the overwhelming evidence.

Superbowldog,I had not read your most recent post when I wrote the above. I understand more clearly your intent. Respect.

lol! No I didn’t expect him to come out and say we were targeting another player but he got picked so we settled for Phillips. I was thinking he might have said we were targeting him all along like Harbaugh did in his interview on NFL Network.

I agree that since none of us have a clue what our board looked like that we really are just guessing about the trade. If Phillips works out they will look brilliant. If he doesn’t and someone in between those picks does than Berry better hope he does better with next year’s pick he got in the trade or Dawgtalkers are going to be calling for his head! lol!

We also have a situation where the Ravens drafted Malik Harrison at the exact same position with the very next pick after ours.

I don't actually see the trade down as a bad thing. We all felt they would try to address the LB position at some point in this draft. Moving down to put yourself in a situation where that position is a value to you rather than having to reach in order to address it while picking up future assets at the same time seem like rather sound strategy to me.

The only question left to settle is whether you picked the right player at that position between the players left on the board at the position. I don't get paid a seven figure salary to figure all of that out. But one thing is for sure, I haven't seen anyone who had Phillips on their radar any where close to where we drafted him. So we'll just have to see how it plays out.

The thing is, if you look back through the draft, NE usually doesn't have great drafts. If you back 4-5 years, they are lucky to get 1 good/great player a year, if that. Last year, they had Chase Winovich as their best pick, and he had 5.5 sacks. N'Keal Harry was hurt a lot, but no one else amounted to much.

The year before (2018), Sony Michel was a decent pick, but has averaged 900 yards a year and was picked before Chubb. Isaiah Wynn has been hurt a lot too, but no one else has amounted to much.

2017: Deatrich Wise has 11.5 sacks in 3 seasons. No one else has been good.

2016: Joe Thuney is a great guard in Rd 3. Brissett has been decent, but he was traded already. Ted Karras in Rd. 6 finally started last year. Still, decent pick for Rd 6.

2015: Good draft overal, with Malcolm Brown as a decent DT, and Trey Flowers as a very good DE in Rd 3. Shaq Mason is a very good guard.

So I would say it's been since at least 2015 that NE has had a very good draft. They were so good because of the trades for players and being able to get a bunch of good, veteran players cheaper to try to win championships.

That doesn't fit the trade down guys narative.

Well said. You just never know if you made the right pick, but trading down is a good strategy.

Face it, having extra picks has value any way you cut it. You never know how those will impact next year or later in the current draft..

I guess until we get good enough and lose more to free agency where we pick up some 4th and 5th round compensatory picks, we will have to continue to generate some by trading back.


It's obvious this isn't like a few years ago where we were tearing down and did want to accumulate more top picks.


Now, we aren't all that interested in trading out of the top 2-3 picks. But sure, moving down in the 4th to gain another 3rd next year, or whatever, good planning. Especially if you have a target player or three you are comfortable will still be there. If not, try to trade back again. Sometimes you don't get it right. Make next year even better. Trade down and now in the late 5th round you might be able to look at guys with 6th round grades and not be a total reach when you turn in the card.

You get in those middle rounds, you are playing poker and mostly guessing and bluffing. You have all kinds of players who are bunched up on your board rankings.

Some of those guys hit. You hope you get one every now and then. Every team in the league could have drafted Tom Brady at least 5 times over. Some even 6 times.

Go figure. The "football" guys had that one all balled up.

Joe Montana, what was he, a 3rd rounder?


I do have to admit I like gaining picks. One last swing at the bat is sometimes all it takes.

I like trading down, but it depends on circumstances. Don't just trade down for the sake of it. It's a strategy like anything else. Weigh value. If your at pick 74 and all the remaining players are pretty even, and you can get good value, trade down. If you're at pick 74 and your 30th ranked player is available, draft him.

I think you have to have a mix of both. But teams towards the end of Round 1 obviously are usually better teams, and many (Pats, Seahawks, San Fran) tend to trade down a lot.

If it were me, and I were running the draft for a team that usually picks mid-late in each round (i.e. are pretty good every year), I'd look to trade down with a team that has good chance of netting me a higher pick in the next year, depending on how that draft is coming to me and how the next year's draft is looking.

Yes and no. You give away players now for hopefully better players later but there's no guarantees there. Look at Miami and Pittsburgh last year. For the first half or more of the season it looked like Miami was going to get a top 5 pick and then they end up with number 18.

In thr third-round this year we moved down 14 spots and essentially picked up 2 third rounders. Still got a good player this year and also have a pretty good pick next year.

I meant if you were a NE or NO type team. Miami or the Browns picking after them almost never happens.

JMHO, I'm with you thinking past 2 rd all those guys are attempting to beat the odds- interesting that old school guys w ho pick REAL football players miss also- Colbert. AND picks wasted on lousy character guys- Johnny M and Josh G, it is no wonder
we've stunk for ages. Character had some weight in this draft, by this leadership group- remember Mangini. I'm very pleased with the mental make up/character of the whole class....I think they will be willing AND available.....GO Browns!!! I know nothing about actual football players other than being alive and privileged to see Jim Brown/ Kelly/ Warfield etc in their prime.....again...GO Browns!!!

I never really noticed your sig...I like that. Thumbs up.


I saw the same guys you did. Special times, but looking back, going to games with my Dad was more special even if I didn't know it at the time.

I miss that more than watching Jim Brown and Leroy Kelly run the ball, and I loved watching them run the ball.

I loved my Dad more. I'd give my left nut to go to one more game or have dinner one more time with Mom and Dad.

I only caught a little bit of Cleveland Browns Daily and their initial post Draft podcast, but Zagura mentioned Berry told him that they had tons of programs running calculations on the % chances of who other teams were likely to pick. It was just a quick blurb and he didn't expand on that, but there is certainly some form of method at work.

Analytics at work...