“2068” –Massive Asteroid Apophis on Path for Earth Impact
Posted on Oct 27, 2020 in Astronomy, Science ‌ Sixty Six million years ago a 14-kilometer long, Mount-Everest sized asteroid blasted a hole in the ground, when at the moment of impact, “the top of it might have still towered more than a mile above the cruising altitude of a 747,” writes Peter Brannen in Ends of the World. “In its nearly instantaneous descent, it compressed the air below it so violently that it briefly became several times hotter than the surface of the sun, hitting Earth with enough force enough to lift a mountain back into space at escape velocity, releasing the equivalent of 100 million megatons of TNT creating a 20-mile deep, 110-mile hole and sterilizing the remaining 170 million square miles of the ancient continent of Pangaea, killing virtually every species on Earth and, oddly, paving the way for the emergence of the human species.”
“It would have felt like the ground beneath your feet had become a ship in the middle of the ocean,” says earth and space science professor Mark Richards at the University of Washington. “Then rocks would have bombarded you from a boiling sky that was beginning to take on a hazy glow. It would have seemed like the end of the world.”
“The pressure of the atmosphere in front of the asteroid started excavating the crater before it even got there,” geophysicist Mario Rebolledo at the Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán, told Brannen. “Then, when the meteorite touched ground zero, it was totally intact. It was so massive that the atmosphere didn’t even make a scratch on it. It would have been a pleasant day one second and the world was already over by the next. —all within a second or two of impact.”
Fast Forward to Earth 2068
New observations of asteroid Apophis –noteworthy because of its extremely close approach to the Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when the 300 meter-sized asteroid will become visible to the unaided eye as it passes within the belt of communications satellites orbiting the Earth–obtained with the Subaru telescope earlier this year revealed the effect of what’s known as Yarkovsky acceleration.
“The results show that the asteroid is drifting away from a purely gravitational orbit by about 170 meters per year, which is enough to keep the 2068 impact scenario in play,” said Dave Tholen at the University of Hawaiʻi Institute for Astronomy (IfA) about the acceleration phenomenon that arises from an extremely weak force on an object due to non-uniform thermal radiation. This force is particularly important for the asteroid Apophis, as it affects the probability of an Earth impact in 2068.
Effect of the Yarkovsky Acceleration
All asteroids need to reradiate as heat the energy they absorb from sunlight in order to maintain thermal equilibrium, a process that slightly changes the orbit of the asteroid. The orbit calculations were performed by Davide Farnocchia of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who is a co-author on the paper that was presented at the 2020 virtual meeting of the Division for Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society.
Prior to the detection of Yarkovsky acceleration on Apophis, astronomers had concluded that a potential impact with Earth in 2068 was impossible. The detection of this effect acting on Apophis means that the 2068 impact scenario is still a possibility.
“We have known for sopme time that an im)pact with Earth is not possible during the 2029 close approach,” said Tholen, who has been accurately tracking the motion of Apophis in the sky since his team discovered it in 2004.
Further observations to refine the amplitude of the Yarkovksy effect and how it affects Apophis’ orbit are underway. Astronomers will know well before 2068 if there is any chance of an impact.
The Daily Galaxy, Sam Cabot, via University of Hawaii at Manoa
There will be no playoffs. Can’t play with who we have out there and compounding it with garbage playcalling and worse execution. We don’t have good skill players on offense period. Browns 20 - Bears 17.
You see, Funk is a natural, organic metric distillation of the vibrational constant that binds all things to all things. It is a slice from a continuum with no beginning and no end. This can be best explained by my musical alter-ego Clemzilla, who lives at a music-centric message board.
Clemzilla had just written a treatise on why Maurice Ravel's "Bolero" (think background music to Bo Derek's beach scene in the movie '10') was the epitome of Funk, though written almost 100 years ago by a Frenchman.*
The responder asked: "Clem, I was wondering if you took the Barry White refresher course before you wrote that funky stuff?"
[Clemzilla]: "When a man undergoes The Process, the Funk is within him for life. As The Groove is a cosmic continuum, with no beginning or end, the flow of Funk is a universal constant. The practitioner need only to re-tap his connection to The Oneness to get a fresh whiff of Tha Funk. No refresher course is ever necessary, because once in tune with The Oneness, the Practitioner's essence is vibrationally linked to The Source. This "hookup" can never be severed. It can, however, be weakened... by non-use, lack of personal vigilance or too many performances of Pops concerts with non-followers such as Sandi Patti, The Judds, or John Tesh.
As a raw initiate, I was introduced to the truths and teachings of The Master- His Stankness, Sir George Clinton. His gospel regarding achieving The Oneness was a revelation to me at the time. During those early days, the esteemed Mr. White chose a different path... that of the sumptuous, suggestive and sensual. Thus, many followers of The Love Unlimited Movement were born.
While his leadership was appreciated by many Funkateers, they nonethless sought a more pure expression of the Groove. In essence, they "wanted their Funk uncut"- and chose to be led by their collective nose to the Mothership for their connection.
________________________________
I implore all who haven't experienced The Oneness to embark upon this journey at your earliest convenience. Fakin' Tha Funk is an unnatural state for Man- as he was at one time, many eons ago "at One with The One." It's time to reclaim our collective birthright, and seek that pure state of grace known as "Groovaliciousness." Your mind, spirit and hip joints will thank you.
now beaming up to Tha Mothership, Zilla.
*treatise on file for publication, upon request. "ZenZilla... on the Art of Bolero (or DefMo UnRavels tha Funk 4 Ya)"
Asteroid Apophis is speeding up as scientists recalculate odds of 2068 impact
By Elizabeth Howell
Astronomers say they'll have to keep an eye on the near-Earth asteroid Apophis to see how much of a danger the space rock poses to our planet during a close pass in 2068. But don't panic: The chances of an impact still seem very low.
Under certain circumstances, the sun can heat an asteroid unevenly, causing the space rock to radiate away heat energy asymmetrically. The result can be a tiny push in a certain direction — an effect called Yarkovsky acceleration, which can change the path of an asteroid through space.
Since astronomers hadn't measured this solar push on Apophis before, they didn't take it into consideration when calculating the threat the asteroid poses to us in 2068. Those previous calculations showed a tiny impact probability — around 1 in 150,000.
Now, a new study shows the asteroid is drifting away from its previously predicted orbit by about 557 feet (170 meters) a year due to the Yarkovsky effect, lead author and University of Hawaii at Manoa astronomer David Tholen said during a press conference on Oct. 26.
"Basically, the heat that an asteroid radiates gives it a very tiny push," he explained during a virtual meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Sciences. You can find the press conference on YouTube here. It begins at the 22-minute mark.
"The warmer hemisphere [of the asteroid] would be pushing slightly more than the cooler hemisphere, and that causes the asteroid to drift away from what a purely gravitational orbit would predict," Tholen said.
Showing the orbit for the 1,120-foot-wide (340 m) Apophis, he indicated that astronomers thought they had enough observations of the asteroid — collected over the years after its discovery in 2004 — to more or less rule out an impact in 2068. Those calculations, however, were based on an orbit not affected by the sun's energy. Ultimately, this means we can't yet rule out Apophis being a threat in 2068, Tholen said.
"The 2068 impact scenario is still in play," Tholen said. "We need to track this asteroid very carefully."
Fortunately, the asteroid will make a close (yet still safe) approach to our planet in 2029, allowing ground-based telescopes — including the Arecibo Observatory's powerful radar dish — to get a more detailed look at the asteroid's surface and shape. Apophis will be so close it will be visible with the naked eye, at third magnitude — about as bright as the binary star Cor Caroli.
"Of all dates, Friday the 13th in April, April 13 [2029], is when the flyby will occur," Tholen said., "Obviously, the 2029 close approach is critical. We'll know after that occurs exactly where it [Apophis] was as it passed the Earth, and that will make it much easier for us to predict future impact scenarios."
Tholen's team made the discovery after four nights of observation in January and March with the Subaru Telescope, a Japanese optical-infrared telescope on the summit of Maunakea, Hawaii. The researchers collected 18 exposures of the asteroid at a very high precision, with an error of only 10 milliarcseconds in each observation. (A milliarcsecond is a thousandth of an arcsecond, an angular measurement that helps scientists measure cosmic distances.)
"We really nailed the position of this asteroid extremely well," Tholen said. "That was enough to give us a strong detection of the Yarkovsky effect, which is something we've been expecting to see now for a while."
Tholen noted that Apophis has been troublesome for astronomers, with "numerous impact scenarios" predicted (and then largely ruled out) since it was first found in 2004. For example: Initially, scientists calculated a 3% chance of Apophis slamming into our planet in 2029, a prediction Tholen said was quickly ruled out after more observations showed the true path of the little world.
If there's any threat of an impact, astronomers will know long before 2068 how to approach the problem. Engineers around the world are developing ideas about how to deflect dangerous asteroids from our planet, concepts that range from gravitational tugs to "kinetic impactors" that would knock an incoming rock off course.
A joint European-NASA mission will also test and observe asteroid deflection at a space rock called Didymos, starting in 2022. If all goes to plan, NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft will slam into "Didymoon," the moon orbiting Didymos. The European Space Agency will then launch the Hera mission in 2023 or 2024 and reach Didymos two years later, to see how well the kinetic impactor did in moving the moon from its previous orbit.
NASA has a dedicated Planetary Defense Coordination Office that collects asteroid observations from a network of partner telescopes, and which runs through scenarios with other U.S. agencies for asteroid deflection or (in the worst case) evacuating threatened populations from an incoming space rock. So far, decades of observations have found no imminent asteroid or comet threats to our planet.
I’ll turn 101 years old (not young) in 2068.... hope I’m alive to see it!
I’d be 96... I hope I’m long dead. Trust me, as a geriatric nurse, when I say that living into your 90’s is rarely a treat. Yes, I know there are some folks that age that are doing ‘well’. Most aren’t. There are things in life much worse than death. I’ve seen enough to know I want no part of much of it. Give me 80ish good years and I’ll be happy.
Oopsies..... Someone forgot about the Yarkovsky Effect.
Apophis asteroid might be more likely to strike Earth in 2068 than thought by Bob Yirka , Phys.org
David Tholen, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii, recently reported on the status of asteroid Apophis during a virtual meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Sciences. During his presentation, he outlined research he and his team conducted regarding the path of the asteroid and the likelihood that it will strike Earth.
The asteroid Apophis was first spotted by astronomers back in 2004. Shortly thereafter, researchers worked out its orbital path and found that the 340-meter-wide asteroid would pass near to the Earth in 2029, 2036 and again in 2068. More study showed that there was little chance of the asteroid striking Earth; thus, it was discounted as a threat. More recently, Tholen and his team noted that earlier researchers had not accounted for the Yarkovsky effect by which from the sun strikes one side of an asteroid. As the heat radiates away from the asteroid, a small amount of energy pushes back against the asteroid, forcing it to turn slightly. Tholen and his team calculated that the Yarkovsky effect is pushing Apophis to one side enough to force it to drift by approximately 170 meters a year. They next applied that bit of knowledge to the math describing Apophis's orbit and found that the drift is changing the course of the asteroid in a way that will bring it closer to Earth. He notes that thus far, there is no indication that the asteroid will strike the Earth in 2029 and 2036, but 2068 might be another matter. He suggests that astronomers will have to keep an eye on Apophis as its rendezvous date approaches.
As news of a possible threat from Apophis arises, others have pointed out that the human race has made strides in protecting the planet from asteroid strikes. NASA's DART mission, for example, scheduled for 2022, will involve sending a spacecraft to an asteroid called Didymos and using it to alter the path of Dimorphos, one of its moons. Tholen noted during his talk that study of Apophis when it passes by in 2029 should give scientists a much better idea of whether or not it poses an actual threat in 2068.
"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
Why do astronomers get paid in society. Why do I have to live in a society where astronomers get paid to look at rocks up in space. This is a messed up world! And I'm not real happy about it!
March 26, 2021 - 02:51 PM EDT NASA declares Earth is safe from 'Apophis' asteroid for 100 years BY CAMERON JENKINS44
NASA announced this week that Earth will remain safe from the threat of a specific asteroid's impact for at least the next 100 years.
According to the space agency, new telescope observations have ruled out the possibility of the 1,100-ft. asteroid "Apophis" coming in contact with Earth in 2068, The Associated Press reported.
NASA previously cited concerns that Apophis could come severely close to Earth in 2029 and in 2036 before recently ruling out those possibilities.
Now, according to the news outlet, Apophis has been officially removed from the agency's asteroid “risk list.”
“A 2068 impact is not in the realm of possibility anymore, and our calculations don’t show any impact risk for at least the next 100 years,” Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies told the AP.
Southwest Airlines pilot on hot mic rants against Bay-area 'liberal f... Earlier this month, scientists were able to refine the space rock's orbit around the sun through radar observations. Apophis will reportedly come within 20,000 miles of Earth in April of 2029 and allow for astronomers to have a better look at it.
“When I started working with asteroids after college, Apophis was the poster child for hazardous asteroids,” Farnocchia said.
“There’s a certain sense of satisfaction to see it removed from the risk list.”
I’ll turn 101 years old (not young) in 2068.... hope I’m alive to see it!
I’d be 96... I hope I’m long dead. Trust me, as a geriatric nurse, when I say that living into your 90’s is rarely a treat. Yes, I know there are some folks that age that are doing ‘well’. Most aren’t. There are things in life much worse than death. I’ve seen enough to know I want no part of much of it. Give me 80ish good years and I’ll be happy.
No doubt. Most people who make it in to their 90's start wishing they were dead. Most of their friends have died, some of their family has died.
Sitting around half blind, confined to a wheel chair, or on a walker, waiting to die can't be fun.
I am with you, make it to eighty or so in relative good health, then a fairly fast decline is better than a slow 15 year decline where you can't do much in the last 10 years.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.
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