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So, while chatting with a co-worker, I jokingly said I'd like to grab Berry/Haden with the first pick, then bundle up a few more picks to go up and get the Texas safety Earl(can't remember his name) in the bottom of the first.
This brought to mind a simple question, is it better to come out of a draft with only 2 or 3 "sure fire" guys, or to get one and maybe a couple other decent ones, and a few possibles?
Just a thought.
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Legend
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How about 11 sure fire guys? That's what I want this year.
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No such thing as "sure-fire" in the NFL draft bro. However, I get what you mean here.
I won't have a hard time answering this. Simply put, in the NFL draft, quantity is way better than quality.
Here's why.
Take a look at teams that have tried the quality route- In 2007, the Browns traded several later round draft picks to the Dallas Cowboys so that we could select Brady Quinn. Look at who Dallas picked up with the picks we traded to them: Dallas acquired our second rounder as part of the deal and then traded it to Philly for pick #26. Dallas used pick #26 to select DE Anthony Spencer. With pick #178 which we gave to Dallas as part of the Quinn deal, the Cowboys took Nick Folk, who has turned into a Pro-bowl kicker.
Now take a look at the implications the Quinn pick had on the next years draft. Don't forget that we gave Dallas our first rounder in 2008 for Quinn also, which they used to select Felix Jones, who has turned into a productive running back, and they also recieved our 4th round pick in 2008, which they used to select Tashard Choice, another productive running back.
In essence, because we traded up for supposed quality, we ended up with Brady Quinn, while our trade partner ended up with Anthony Spencer, Nick Folk, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice. - No questioning who was left with the short end of the stick there.
If you want more examples, look up what Minnesota gave up to get Herschel Walker, or what New Orleans gave up to get Ricky Williams, or what San Diego gave up to get Ryan Leaf.
Quantity is always better bro. - Mangini learned this from Bellichik, who built a dynasty via a multitude of draft picks.
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I would bet that we do some moving in the draft as I suspect that 11 rookies would be too much for the team structure to handle. That being said, we have what ... 4 picks in the 5th round .... and something like 5 of the top 100? That's a pretty good position to be in when the draft is reputed to be one of the deepest in a long time. Maybe a 4th rounder becomes a 5th with the added depth ..... and maybe we find a Brandon Marshall and Elvis Dumerville in this draft ....... Maybe an Assante Samuels .... A Brandon Jacobs ..... Maybe we luck out with a TJ Whosyamama in the 7th ...... and a Tom Brady in the 6th? Hey .. I can dream, right? 
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
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2nd String
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I think by having lots of picks increases your chances of quality. If you only had 5 picks if you miss on 1/2 of then you only have two good players. where as with 11 picks if you missed on half ill take 5 good guys. also i feel like round 5-7 are crapshoot. sometimes you get jerome harrision or lawerance vickers but then other time you get a guy who gets cut in camp.
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I'm not positive but I believe that pick that went to Philly was Kolb. 
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Quote:
I won't have a hard time answering this. Simply put, in the NFL draft, quantity is way better than quality.
Ahh, I don't think so. You site a couple of examples but those were bad picks.. Every team makes those mistakes at one point or another. Then look at those that we traded with and you see they, in many cases, picked wisely and got....... QUALITY.
I'll take quality everytime.
I will admit that having a lot of picks (quantity) gives a team a better chance of hitting on more quality guys.. But it also could mean a bunch of low quality guys as well.. See the Browns 1999 and 2000 drafts as an example of having quantity but lacking quality...
We have what, four 5th round picks this year? Would you give up a couple of 5ths and a third to move back up into the low second if you saw a guy sitting there that you believe is a guy you can win with?
Of course,,
So quantity is something that's actually easy to come by.. hell, you can get all the quantity you want in the UDFA market after the draft.. Not many of those end up being a Josh Cribbs! And he's a QUALITY guy...
What it comes down to is who is doing the picking, who is doing the scouting and who is running the show? Baltimore does a consistently good job drafting because of those that do job.. That's all we've lacked.
Quality is where ya gotta be... JMO
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To me
A team wants as many picks as it can get going into the draft, the more chances picks you have the odds are you'll hit one or two right and in the NFL thats pretty good.
Quality in the first three rounds, rounds 4-7 draft the best you see on the board at a postion you need. This is why GM's dont mind lower picks, sure we all want 1-2 but the more lower picks they get the more chance to hit the running target they get.
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Once you get past the cream-of-the-crop type players in the Draft - your best shot at Quality comes from Quantity.
You can scout & scout & scout.... and no matter how much you put into it, you're gonna hit on some and miss on others.
Given your stated choices, however.... I think that I'd rather come away with a few sure-fire types - if you could somehow guarantee that they were indeed "sure-fire" and not merely well shined crap. If you could add two or three of those in every draft, you wouldn't have to worry about anything in free agency except depth.... and signing quality depth is a lot easier than signing top-tier.
Being that you just cannot guarantee that a very highly touted player will actually succeed and live up to expectations, you just cannot realistically take that approach. A mix of the two choices is probably the best option: Get one, and if you are in position to, trade up to get another - then add some decent ones.
Browns is the Browns
... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.
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Legend
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Bottom line is, when you get down to the lower rounds, you take the "better" of what's left. If we're waiting until then to fill a hole, then we've already missed.
Quality at every spot,...college football has already weeded the "quantity" numbers for you.
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I'm going to shock this board with sumptin..do not be shocked if the Browns actually draft Thomas..if Berry and any other top player on their board is gone.
The value of a lot of the other players is not there ..I expect them to go defense with their first three picks.
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You mean the Texas Safety "Earl ?"
I could live with that,...he has to have shut down Dez Bryant at some point, probably, maybe ?
I just do not want to take a QB.
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To each his own.. I'd much rather have quality then quanity. I'd trade our 9 picks outside round 2 for 2 more IN round 1 or 2. Thats four players we would get with a high probability of actually making the team. Do you really think any decent team is going to have room for 11 rookies ?
Let me ask another way.
If the points added up would you trade our 11 picks for:
Eric Berry, Joe Hayden and Sam Bradford this year ?
No ? How about Berry, Suh and Patrick Robinson ?
and this is only THREE players.
You get the point no matter the personal choices.. Sometimes quality is much better than quanity. The Jets knew that last year. Anyone wish we had kept Sanchez now ?
"Just gotta Coach em up" , "I thought they Battled" , " I need to watch the tape"
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Yes I do mean him..not saying it is a lock..but I would consider it..many things can and will happen up till the moment when the Browns pick.
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Quote:
Do you really think any decent team is going to have room for 11 rookies ?
Not to change the point of this thread, but that is a slight concern. What are we gonna do with all of them if we draft 11 guys? Or does it matter because maybe we'd give fewer UFA's a shot?
![[Linked Image from i28.photobucket.com]](http://i28.photobucket.com/albums/c201/shadedog/mcenroe2.jpg) gmstrong ----------------- 2023: The year we got a legit D.
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Seems to me that teams who like to have the flexibility to move around within any given draft stockpile picks like we have. New England has been, in the past at least, masters at this. I think MH & Co. will use those picks to move into position to get players we like when opportunities present themselves to do so. I highly doubt we'll come out of this draft with 11 rookies.
[color:"white"]"Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference."
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Quote:
Quote:
Do you really think any decent team is going to have room for 11 rookies ?
Not to change the point of this thread, but that is a slight concern. What are we gonna do with all of them if we draft 11 guys? Or does it matter because maybe we'd give fewer UFA's a shot?
I don't know,...there's probably 11 dudes you could cut right now. But,....those 11 newbies would not only have to be upgrades, half of them would have to be starters/impacters now,...jmo. And you are most correct, when you draft a kid you want him to make the team, regardless of what you paid him.
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Quote:
I'm going to shock this board with sumptin..do not be shocked if the Browns actually draft Thomas..if Berry and any other top player on their board is gone.
The value of a lot of the other players is not there ..I expect them to go defense with their first three picks.
I think your right with were your going with it. I think ET and Berry are very similar players and ET could end up being every bit the saftey that Berry is. I think ET is small and might get him in trouble at the next level, for the record I think Texas mishandled him....I think he is a corner. But you don't draft a guy and move him that high (they did the same thing with Micheal Huff). In the big 12 your saftey's have to be able to cover like corners so they get smallish safties and ask them to cover slot recievers, the question is....Is he big enough to make plays in the box. I think Berry has some size issues too, but has proven on more occasions that he can play in the run game. Just my two cents from watching the guy for the last two years. For the record he is extremly instictive and makes plays all over the field and always seems to get his hands on the ball.....And to add to you post, he really was not matched up with Dez ever. Dez did not play the game this year and last year ET played much more of a cover 4 saftey taking away a deep quater and matching up as opposed to covering in man to man situations as he did this year. He played a ton of Nickel Corner this year and probably would have gotten that matchup, but Dez was taking advice from Neon Deon and had to sit out! 
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Quote:
Anyone wish we had kept Sanchez now ?
Heck no. His numbers were not that stellar and he had some horrible games. and that was playing with the #1 rushing offense and the security of having the #1 defense behind him.
on our team, his rookie year would have been a colossal failure and the damage that would have been done might not have been reversable. i'll take alex mack and building this team the correct way every time.
#gmstrong
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I agree. While it looks like Sanchez will be a successful NFL QB, he has all the tools, he would have played too soon for us. Like no logo said, we had no support for him.
Also, I know his numbers weren't stellar, but he was a rookie QB who took his team to the AFC Championship game. And he was improving rapidly as the season moved on (especially in the playoffs). I'd say he had a very successful rookie season.
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In the big 12 your saftey's have to be able to cover like corners so they get smallish safties and ask them to cover slot recievers, the question is....Is he big enough to make plays in the box.
First ,I agree with your remarks but will add to them..
Here are their respective heights:
Berry 5'11 - 211
Thomas 5'10 - 208
Not a big difference..the thing is they are really FS's, not guys you plant in the box..that would be for Elam,since he really can't cover a man hole and would eliminate the over the top stuff that the Browns get burned with..I read they were bottom in terms of covering TE's/Backs and slot receievers..either of these two safeties would upgrade the coverage tremendously when they gained enough experience.
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Quote:
Heck no. His numbers were not that stellar and he had some horrible games. and that was playing with the #1 rushing offense and the security of having the #1 defense behind him.
Yeah, you are right,,, QB's drafted that high never have any growing pains with good teams around them do they
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I agree they are both upgrades. I did say I worry a little about berry's size too, it just seems he plays bigger to me when I watch him....Just a felling I get i guess. I love Thomas it could be argued that he was a bigger playmaker than Berry really as far as getting his hands on the ball, in fact I thought he should have won the Thorpe award over berry becuase he simply made more plays. I am a little gun shy about Texas safties after Huff. I thought huff was a sure fire star in teh NFL but he can't seem to make plays at that level. Plus I don't want to seem like a homer.....now Jordan Shipley on the other had I will go homer on you and be on his bandwagon. 
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Quote:
Quote:
Heck no. His numbers were not that stellar and he had some horrible games. and that was playing with the #1 rushing offense and the security of having the #1 defense behind him.
Yeah, you are right,,, QB's drafted that high never have any growing pains with good teams around them do they
perhaps you missed my point.
Sanchez would have been in a much worse situation here than he was in NYJ and would not have looked nearly as good as he did for them. And I was pointing out he did have his growing pains (I'm just a bit sick of ESPN crowing as if he didn't have any perhaps).
I believe you build the team first, then when you at least have a solid foundation, you can get your young QB. I think we needed the OC, DL depth and S more last year than we needed a QB who would be getting crucified on these boards right now as yet another wasted pick.
it's also the reason I would prefer not to trade-up to draft Bradford this year unless Holmgren really feels he is head and shoulders above next year's group.
I think next year at this time, we should have that solid foundation. so, either a mid-round QB that we draft this year might be ready to step-in or a high round QB next year (assuming we don't find the solution via another avenue).
hope that helps. I do think Sanchez will be successful in NY. his poise in the playoffs was excellent.
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It's also the reason I would prefer not to trade-up to draft Bradford this year unless Holmgren really feels he is head and shoulders above next year's group.
Boy would I like to hear what Holmgren is really thinking here,...
We're already at "unknown" as far as QB's go,...why draft another now ?
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Quote:
It's also the reason I would prefer not to trade-up to draft Bradford this year unless Holmgren really feels he is head and shoulders above next year's group.
Boy would I like to hear what Holmgren is really thinking here,...
We're already at "unknown" as far as QB's go,...why draft another now ?
if I could 'win' a conversation with anyone in sports right now, I just might pick that one.
#gmstrong
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Well,...what I mean is, with all of the other talent on the board that also needs "unknown" to go away,.... 
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Quality in a landslide. There are "average" football players all over the NLF, they can be found at a dime a dozen.. what can't be found are game changers. So while you never know, coming out of the draft, who those game changers are going to be. I'll take 2 great players, one decent player, and three total busts over 6 decent players in every draft....
yebat' Putin
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I'd much rather have 5 picks total in rounds 1-4 than 13 picks total in round 1-7.
I'd be up for maneuvering for some higher selections after our #1 but in a good draft, it's going to be hard to find teams willing to deal picks.
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Quality is almost always better than quantity unless you are talking beer at a tailgate.
I would bundle as many picks as possible in move up deals.
I mentioned somewhere before, I doubt the Browns want to have 11 drafted rookies running around Berea in July in addition to any undrafted rookies brought in, which is probably going to and another 4-5 at minimum..
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No sure things (I would like them all to be good Pro Bowlers and Hall of Famers, please). But I want to see us pick up some more picks; if we trade/bundle for better spots in a round, great! But we DO need impact in this draft. We may have a bucket of various ammunition, but sometimes only an elephant gun will do. Go for the big gamers. Good hunting! 
"Every responsibility implies opportunity, and every opportunity implies responsibility." Otis Allen Glazebrook, 1880
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I mentioned somewhere before, I doubt the Browns want to have 11 drafted rookies running around Berea in July in addition to any undrafted rookies brought in, which is probably going to and another 4-5 at minimum..
What they want is 4-5 top 100 players..all those 5th round picks..bank on two being used to move up.
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Quote:
I mentioned somewhere before, I doubt the Browns want to have 11 drafted rookies running around Berea in July in addition to any undrafted rookies brought in, which is probably going to and another 4-5 at minimum..
What they want is 4-5 top 100 players..all those 5th round picks..bank on two being used to move up.
I agree. Two 5th rounders and Quinn could get us to the top 3rd of the 4th round.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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not trying to be rude, but it's a poor question. it is not a matter of choosing 1 over the other. quality is ALWAYS what you're aiming for...you just want MORE quality. one is a measure of # of picks, one is a measure of how good your FO is...apples to oranges.
what i think you mean to ask is whether several mid-late round picks is better than a few early round picks. if you are a Browns FO in the last decade, you want more picks, because you haven't shown consistent ability to draft talent. if you have a GM like Pioli, Newsome, or AJ Smith, one can make an argument for a smaller # of (potential) stud players over several (potential) average starters and role-players.
me? i just want to find out whether this FO knows what is doing, as many of us believe it may. and if it IS high calibre, then give me QUANTITY.
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I just don't know, though have already posted I am in favor of the quality guy. In my mind, the "quantity numbers" have already been reduced, funnelled, weeded down to a level where you're getting an NFL calibre player in the first place. Then, the camps weed them down further.
The subjective side is, measuring heart and determination, and how that player's immeasurables fit into whatever the team's scheme, ideas and vision are. I mean, Hank Fraley might be the Rams' next biggest failure -- Wimbley might become the Raiders' Julius Peppers,.... Only time will tell.
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I think you have to have more picks and hope for the best. The Browns need to stick with the Quality when they have it, unless people are just dying to get out of the city, then they need to make the city a place people want to be.
Hall of famers don't always get the acolades in their first two years and if the team gives up on them they might not get the chance to prove it. I'm thinking back to the first time I saw Ray Lewis play he was a 2 or 3 year pro and he wasn't getting the hype yet.
So I'm saying. Well if all else fails, I'm glad they got Heckert, I've liked Phillys roster for the last few years.
They just need to get a Browns version of the Westbrook player, and some dynamite corners, (may already be on the team).
So keep at least a normal amount of picks, and get more any chance you can.
You could always end up getting another Winslow who is injured for 2 years.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) quality vs. quantity
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