Last year I bought into the hype. Partly because I wanted too. So sick of knowing we would stink. So last year after the off-season and draft; I thought we would win 10 or 11 games.

We had talent and I was expecting development of players and expected the new talent talent to deliver.

Well aware of Freddie and his lack of experience but I thought he had done well enough as the OC before to handle it.

Didn't work out.

So Ben is back. Lamar and the Ravens went on to win 14 regular season games. Only to have a early exit in the playoffs. The Bengals get Burrow. They have Mixon and Green should be ready to go.

Once again we have a new staff. Then there is the challenge of virtual training. Even the Bengals are not having to start over with a new regime.

Last year the Browns were the buzz. Expected to win the division and possible go deep into the playoffs.

Now they are once again hardly mentioned. Not much in the way of expectations. Most are looking at the Ravens as division winners. Some expect Ben to be the comeback player of the year.

So are the Browns being underestimated this year? Overestimated again by the fans?

Honestly, I believe the offense will be good. I think they will be one of the top offenses in all football. Special teams should be fine.

Defense? Miles makes a huge difference. His impact is obvious on every play. So we have him back. Most of us are concerned about the linebackers. Rightfully so. The inexperience is obvious and the talent is questionable.

The defensive backfield should be alright. I expect Greedy to improve. Ward is going into year three. Woods has favored man coverage in the past. Both Greedy and Ward are good at man coverage. I was very high on Karl Joseph coming out of college. I like him on this team. Redwine had a decent rookie year and usually second year growth is a big jump. Delpit was a very good safety at LSU and I expect him to help right away. We have some depth.

Of course much is riding on Baker. Kind of sick of talking about him. We all know. He has to play better. I expect him to do so.

Over/under. I think the division is up for grabs. The Bengals are not ready yet. The Ravens, Browns, or Steelers could win the division. The Ravens are and should be the favorites. However, I do not think it is automatic. In fact I think the division will slug it out and beat up on each other. I don't see any game within the division as a gimmie.

Ten wins may take it. And I think any of the three can win the division. Injury and depth could play a big role.

I think we are underestimated and I like that position.

Right with you there.

I was excited. I mean, really, expecting Baker to play like he had the previous season, with Chubb and Hunt, with Landry, and Beckham........my thoughts were "no one can stop us. Our d might need some help, but our O will overcome that."

Turns out, I was wrong. Again.

I overestimated them last year. Kool-aid OD (again). I am a fan, but have dialed it back. Surprise me. Win.

We have better talent to take on our division IMO. Not sure we have enough to take them down. We were lousy despite some favorable matchups last year. This year will be tougher.

Wait and see. I am not crazy fired up this year. That can happen when I see more. Less Freddie should mean more scoring and more wins.

Just win, baby!

I was overestimating last year ... I felt like we finally had a FQB and a generational type offense (and we still might)

This year it’s wait and see ... I am optimistic that our offense will be improved tho

Last year I thought we would be better and win 9 games. I was wrong and disappointed like everyone else. I'll stick with the 9 wins again this year and an outside shot of the playoffs.

Last year I said we would be good if Baker was good. He wasn't and the Browns weren't.

The NFL isn't some big mystery. Owner, coach, QB. If those three are good, you'll be good and in contention every year.

There's not much hope for Haslam. Let's hope Stefanski and Baker can make it 2 out of 3.

I will also add that I believe the Ravens take a step back this year. They are really playing with fire with Lamar as well. It would not surprise me if he got hurt. I saw him take multiple really crushing hits last year. That is not sustainable.

And I think Burrow is being way overrated. I have no concerns about the Bengals one iota. Should be 2 wins there.

I hope Stefanski and Baker prove to be the answers as well ... and I agree about Haslam haha

Freddie got 6 wins as a coach that no one on the team, players and other coaches, believed in.

Stefanski honestly just has to not be a moron and the Browns should win 10 games. Actually I've never seen an easier schedule. If Stefanski is good we might win 12. If Lamar gets hurt we are probably playing KC in the AFC championship.

I was happy earlier in the year when the national sentiment was "same old Browns." But recently the media has started the hype for Stefanski bringing in the Vikings O scheme because it's the 'perfect' fit for Baker...plus the free agent and draft results being great for the O. Shut up already!

I'm from Missouri, just Show Me.

Asked my son what he thought about getting Clowney.

He told me I don't care if we had Khalil Mack, Von Miller, Aaron Donald, and Clowney.

"I have to see them play and win."

Sentiment from being burned last year.

Again I feel good about the offense. Not sure about the defense. I like the adds and feel we have better depth.

I think we need three things. They are the same three things I said last year.

1. At least average play by our qb.

2. Our coaching staff has to be at least average, as well.

3. Team chemistry needs to mesh in a positive manner early and not fall apart if #s 1 and 2 falter again. Also, it's probably even more important for the team's chemistry to get off to a good start. We can't start off 1 and 3 or 2 and 4 and expect the chemistry to be good.

With no off-season programs and installs, it's going to be difficult for a new coaching staff to win right away.

What's the question?

I don't think we're either.

I think that with the challenges of this offseason, pretty much every team everywhere is simply focused on itself right now.

Until the record proves otherwise, this is the same 4-12, 5-11 team it's been for years. I refuse to buy into the hype this year.

I feel this year is a one off. Nothing normal. If the nfl has anything resembling a normal season I will be surprised.

Well, I'm just about as confused as I've ever been. I wanna be optimistic, I'm trying to be.

So here are my + and -

+ Baker will come back,, better coaching will help
+

I think once the new coaching staff effect has stabilized, we'll find that our defense will be holding us back quite a bit. We have some talent, but there are big holes (or at least question marks) in that unit that will show when we're playing against better teams.

I'm thinking/hoping that our offense won't also be holding us back.

j/c

I expected 8-8 last year and have the same expectation for this year.

I've re-watched the Bills and Dolphins games from last year - don't ask me why...I don't really have an answer. The Bills game is especially interesting to me...and frustrating. It was sort of a picture of the entire year.

We did a lot of good things in that game...some very good. We stunk at a lot of things in that game. We were very inconsistent. Chubb, Hunt and Landry simply do their jobs...and do them very well. Baker makes some outstanding throws...and had a few really bad throws. OBJ dropped so many passes I lost count...and made a couple GREAT catches. The defense was pretty good...until it wasn't. The herky-jerky flow to our performance summarized our entire season.

I'm posting these comments here because I can't help but think while watching these games that we were not so far from being a good, competitive team...while being light years away from being a good, competitive team.

I think the roster has gotten better...maybe much better. I can only hope that the coaching will be better as well.

I think the key to success in 2020 will be left to how the coaches handle the team and games. A close second will be the play of Baker - which will depend in-part on how the coaches handle the team and game planning.

I'm less worried about the LB room than I am how the coaches do their jobs. We were close - but far - last year. The roster got better...the coaching got changed...again.

I think we will be largely underestimated as I don't think the national talking heads are nearly as tuned-in to the team as are Browns fans. What I'm driving at is that we were a better collection-of-players last year than we actually played. Something was holding us back...and I don't think it was entirely the players...even those who have already been upgraded since last year.

When you meld new coaches and systems with new OTs and have new Ss and young LBs...and a virus shutdown...I don't see how anyone can get so optimistic to the point of over-estimating the results.

J/c

One big concern from last year ... our defense was bad and/or folded once Myles was gone. The games at Arizona and against Cincy were pretty bad performances ... that was a sign of a team with no chemistry or unity.

Maybe it was just the culmination of a tough year and a bad coach ... well find out

Good post.

I share much of what you stated.

Consistency is a concept most coaches strive for. Consistency is something we failed miserable at last year.

In addition anytime a new coaching staff takes over; you are behind the eight ball. Coaches and players don't know each other. Both are in a learning mode.

Then you add virtual learning instead of face to face and on field practice. Not good.

I am optimistic by nature. Hard for me to start a season thinking 500 or less. Then you begin a season with no more than curiosity. After waiting all off season for football to start. I hate feeling like you can not have a winning season.

We have talent. That in itself is a good starting point. I think like many teams we will need things to break our way. Like no major injuries.

Lost a bit in last year is all the injuries especially to the secondary. Of course Miles was huge.

We should win both games against the Bengals. Probably split against Ravens and Steelers.

The games against them will be critical. If we were to go 5-1 in the division that could mean winning the division. 2-4 and we could very well lose out.

The offense absolutely got better.

The defense absolutely got worse.

Defense, how so?

We added Billings, Clayborn & Elliott. On paper, these are solid depth additions to stop the run & help the pass rush.

Garrett, full season & should be even better with an extra year of strength & experience.

Ogunjobi, playing for a new contract, can't hurt, while Richardson back playing inside is solid.

I feel when healthy, Vernon is a plus player. If he's not in the cards, look for a high profile replacement.

I'll give you the question at LB. They need to step up & show development. Besides, I don't think the Browns are done there yet. Once things get rolling, we might see a few veterans come in for physicals. I can also see a trade or cut pickup if the staff don't feel comfortable.

I like our secondary. Ward, Williams, Mitchell & Johnson look to be a very good foundation with some new faces that could surprise.

Joseph can tackle, Delpit can cover, with Sendejo's experience can't hurt. I'm still on the fence with Redwine though.

I also like how SF's D looked last year. I'm willing to bet we look very much better & organized.

My biggest concern would be Team Tackling, hopefully. this will be the coaching group that will make it a priority.

Overall, there are many on the D that should be motivated & focused for a variety of reasons. As long as the injury bug doesn't hit us hard, I feel we have a good chance at respectability.

There are a lot of things that go against us this year. Things that are actually out of anyone's control. Things that give established teams with established systems a big advantage while giving teams with new HC's a distinct disadvantage.

This virus takes away valuable time that teams with new HC's and staffs need to install new systems. Established teams do have new players on their rosters, but those teams have many players that were on the roster last year and prior years. Those players already know the current system and have the ability to work with those new players. Stefanski has never been a HC before and as such, we have zero players that have played within his system with which to lean on to teach any of the other players.

The contract between the NFL and the NFLPA limit practice times and the amount of time coaches can work with the players. The longer these virus restrictions play out, the further behind teams with new HC's will become in working to install these new systems. That puts teams such as ourselves at a huge disadvantage.

As such, Stefanski and his staff are certainly behind the eight ball here through no fault of their own. As per usual, I'll be looking much closer at the second half of the season than the first half. Why? Because as per usual we have an entire new regime. And under the virus restrictions, I consider it unrealistic to expect much in the first half of the season.

With any new regime, installing new systems on both sides of the ball takes time. Under the current circumstances, the time it will take will be even longer. I would look at 8-8 as a very successful season under the circumstances.

Some will say I'm giving Stefanski and company a built in excuse, when the fact is, with the coronavirus it's the built in reality.

Just don't go expecting us to have their results, at least not right away.

I'd expect something between the 2018 and 2019 49ers Defense... .which, is pretty much middle-of-the-road.

One thing, as bad as we were in 2019 the last 6 games which was to be our easy part of the schedule had the loss of Myles Garrett. This kid is a difference maker and we more than probably would have been 8-8 one of the best records in quite a while. Don't know what I mean by this take it for what it is worth.

jmho

TQI WDYAM FQB, POC, BA and nicknames, nobody knows WYM;
Whether it's VG,TT, JFF, RAC, PP who is JJ, or Dropcutt, if it's going to take me 5 minutes to figure out WTAM, then just type it.

A= ackronym(s)

The Browns are a 4, 5, or 6 win team, and 2 of those are probably because Myles and Baker or Chubb, ie, the players stud out that week.

It's dysfunctional, and it's not realistic to think a new coach is going to have the instant rapport and respect of his key personalities he coaches, neither realistic to think the same coach will have a shared vision (100%) with what the previous group had for the plan of using personel and gameplans,
To the point it's unrealistic to think you'll get any of your 3 must haves Vers until they decide to stick with a plan for continuity.

And Rishuz, the Ravens are probably much improved over last year, wouldn't be surprised to see em win the Super Bowl this year, except for if you look at Pat Mahommes' abilitys to make things happen,
and Andy Reids long term experience, it's like 2 things that are peaking and really hard to overcome.

I still think Bill Bellichic is the smartest man in football at the moment, #2, Tony Dungy isn't coaching #3, may still be Bill Cowher imo, don't know haven't given it much thought but the Patriots could be right back in the Super Bowl even without Gronk, Brady, they don't need their 2 receivers either,
It's possible the Patriots could be back there in a jiffy.

And the AFC South, For 2 years running, when the season got into crunch time of the regular season, the last 7 weeks of the regular season, all 3 of whoever wasn't in the basement of that division race suddenly became juggernaughts to beat, to the point to make me believe 3 of those franchises are in a position of determination and continuity
to really make a run

... Browns are a 4,5, or 6 win team, Unless Stefanski is lightning in a bottle or gets ligntning out of a bottle,
IMO, if they were going to go with Berry and Stefanski, might as well have kept Freddie and Dorsey,
Actually? Should have kept Pettine and Farmer, would have been coming up on their 8th year, plus continuity,
has anyone since then been notably, far and above, better than Pettine and Farmer would have been, with continuity? Maybe Dorsey, ehh what's the point of arguing.

j/c and a bit of a rant, but this is probably the best thread for it...

Building a great team:

1. Building a front office and coaching staff that understands and agrees on the protocol and time-table for the task at hand.
2. Drafting, acquiring and cultivating talent.
3. Designing a scheme that fits the talent and experience of the players you put on the field. Adjusting the scheme for injuries, opponents and miscalculated probabilities of success.
4. Creating a culture and depth of talent that bridges the gap between "good", on any given Sunday, and "plug and play" (i.e. the Patriots and their never ending list of average players that over-achieve).

For two decades we've been stuck on #1 and #2.
For two seasons we've been stuck on #3.
Now we've (again) put the cart before the horse and returned to #1... Hoping that #1 and #3 will work itself out because of #2.
Certainly not the ideal way to accomplish the goal.

"Great expectations" at the end of 2018 led to the entire sports world overestimating the team's success in 2019.

"Shell-shock" had led to many underestimating the team's success in 2020.

And then the curve ball... Trying to install an entirely new FO, coaching staff, and scheme, in a world where people are freaking quarantined in their own homes.

So even if #1 is what is required for this recipe, and assuming #2 is a given, #3 requires repetition, experience and a lot of ongoing adjustments and layers of "nuance" before it is successful... Because of Covid, we'll be doing it on the fly and flying by the seat of our pants (as usual).

If our "install" resembles anything from last season (infighting and arguing about the process mere weeks before the season) we're in big trouble - and probably staring down the barrel of 6-10.

If we are able to KISS (keep it simple, stupid), start off on the right foot, get a few lucky breaks, and see coherence from the top down - 10-6 and playoffs are possible.

I'll split the difference and say we are probably an 8-8 team. Anything above that will be above my "expectations".

What I do know, and what anyone worth their salt in our organization had better know, is that success in the long term means we better be well into #4 before we start signing these high-dollar, long-term contracts.

I'm optimistic not unrealistic.

A move in the right direction is what I'm looking for. It would be great if Woods could improve on that.

I'll take slightly better than middle of the road for starters.

Again, just being a better tackling defence would improve our chances over past seasons.

This has been a good discussion. Lot of good comments.

I might add. All of us are locked in on the Browns. We view the team in a much different light than those outside. The media covers all the teams. So mostly what you hear is an overview or summary of teams personnel. They don't know like we know our team.

Likewise unless you are a true addict and watch all games we probably don't know all there is to know about other teams.

IMO all teams face similar issues in personnel and coaching. Coordinators come and go. So do position coaches. Teams move out veterans through retirement or free agency. All teams add players in the draft. Nobody can afford all pro talent across the board. All teams depend upon second and third string players as injuries occur. All teams have question marks somewhere on the roster.

So, when we face teams all of them have to play well to win. Sounds simplistic but the difference between winning seven games and ten is very small.

Lots of unknowns once the season begins. Many players on a 53 man roster get thrown into games. Many times their performance can be the that slight difference between a win or loss.

J/c

I’ve wondered this out loud before ... maybe just half seriously, but in today’s NFL world would it be better to just put like 80% of your assets/cap geared towards Offense ... OL, depth, TEs, etc ... because the league is so geared towards offense anyways with penalties ... a defense is at such a disadvantage as it is.

Might as well just try to control the game on O and make them out score you without making mistakes

I think history shows that plan can work in the regular season, but when playoffs come, you have to be able to stop good offenses. There's an old saying; offense wins games, defense wins championships.

I had VERY high opinions of both Schobert and Randall (not his attitude), and was very pleased with our SS play before guys started dropping like flies.

Long story short, I'm down on the defense because we lost some good to very good vets and replaced them with (IMO) middling vets and draft picks.

*I should've prefaced that by saying I rarely expect anything out of non-first rounder rookies. Double that for specific positions (defensive secondary being one).

So I think with the losses to our LB corps and safety positions, I expect our D to take a step back. Our line didn't change much, imo. We should be able to handle guys getting banged up with the upgraded depth, though.

It's impossible to properly rate the Browns since '99.

My mantra has been "It's not THAT we lose, it's HOW we lose."

Honestly the years we went 1-31 were the easiest for me as a fan. We stunk. We knew we stunk. We wanted to stink.

It's years like last two where we actually WERE good. Then the media overhypes us, we have in fighting between coaches leading to BOTH getting fired and a first time head coach gets promoted from RB coach, and then of course who can predict the Myles Garrett helmet hit???

Even if Garrett could've played we at least beat the Steelers probably, for the first sweep since '99 and the first time we beat every division opponent, and possibly even 8-8 and we move on building upwards.

In the past our issue has been talent only a few times, usually it's Drugs, Staph Infections, Helmet tosses, Bad Refs, etc and so on.

It's a fool's errand to try to predict the Browns success.

Losing Sho and Randall doesn't help anything, but I don't think it hurts all that much.

I read somewhere that Woods actually wants to transition in to a dime as our base D. Phillips might be the guy we are looking at to be the one backer on the field. Maybe not this year so much, but moving forward.

I've seen this story before
Browns hire 1st year HC. Team starts out 2-4
Or 1 and 5. Shows improvement middle of season
But finishes in 3rd or last.
The last Browns HC that had anykind of a winning
Record that fired in favor of a real Gomer
Of a HC.
Think about GW puts out a winning record
And he gets fired
I'm not buying into the Browns this year.
I think every game will be close.
But at the end of the day the North is just too
Darn talented.
And in this division it comes down to coaching
And since 1999 the Browns have never had the the
Best coach In the North or the best QB.
The Ravens are a playoff lock.
Big Ben has enough left in his arm to put
Points on the board.and a always great defense
And the Bengals have a franchise type QB to
Go along with a stacked offense.
Plus 2nd year under Taylor.
And the Browns. New coach new philosophy
And learning on the job.
Same story since 1999

I'm sitting here nodding my head in agreement and chuckling while reading that post. How many games have we lost and said something like..."well, that's yet another new and unique way to lose a game". It's maddening.

I think we could count on ONE hand the number of seasons where we were able to come away with a reasonable ability to rate the team...ever STR. Much of that comes from our disastrous track record on picking a QB...probably tied with the turnover from our disastrous track record of picking a HC+.

2019 was no exception because we STILL don't "know" what we have (exactly)...and the systems and many key players are new...again...and some guys we DID know on defense are now gone.

I think the difference (for me) when "rating" the 2019 season is that we clearly had a fair amount of talent. We could execute well at times...until we executed ourselves.

The OL got better talent...much better. The TE position got much better. Hunt will be a full year guy. The WR room is excellent. We have a QB who should be somewhere between good and great.

The DL line is crazy better...the LBs are scary...but we really only lost Shobert there (not a small loss)...the DBs are largely returning with (likely) better depth and the Ss look better/deeper or equal.

If the coaching is 25% better (pulling that # out of my rear) than last year...we should expect to be at least an 8-8 team...if we are in position in the 4th quarter in every game (which will require much better coaching than last year), I like our chances of even beating that record. Today? I'm sticking with 8-8...while not feeling like I'm low-balling or being pessimistic.

WTH...jmho FYI...lol

We are a much better team with a 16 game availability of Garrett, a 100% healthy VERNON the additions of Delpit, Billings and Clayborne makes are defense much better than last year.

On offense with obvious instruction to our talented QB and not a you do what you want instruction of last year. Just get the X's and O's done. Forget about perfection and discipline.

As for players buying in. At the start is when they all do.

We now have a healthy or will have a healthy Landry, OBJ, Higgins and Njoku. We have an addition of Conklin, Wills and Hooper. We are by far a much better team than last year by talent alone - not going into concepts but execution is the key and if they all buy in the chances of that rises!

Special teams are better.

If you wish to be cautious that is fine...8-8 is the cautious bet. I cannot stress the LOS being the key. 4 DL the key is the DL we got a good mix of starters and backups.

The key on O is OL not WRs which was the mistake I saw by Dorsey. We shored that up RIGHT AWAY! This team is built to control the LOS and with a Running game plus playaction a lot of good can be expected even with a back up QB let alone a franchise QB.

I see good things happening but I do have reservations due to the lack of continuity. I do not know how long things will take to click. In review and we have a very good data base for that. The Defense should be there by game 3 and improving with each game. The Offense might take 8 games before it starts clicking. That is pretty much our experience of the past. We never had talent like this, NEVER since 1999 so will that speed up the process? Possibly

Honestly, as long as Baker doesn't struggle, I think the O will come along a lot quicker than that. The entire O revolves around the blocking and formations.... I think it will click pretty quickly, especially for guys like Bitonio that have already been in it previously.

Defensively....it's a mystery and I'm not as sold on guys like Greedy & Sendejo as some others may be. Greedy still has a lot to prove and Sendejo is clearly a short-term band-aid. If they, and Delpit & Joseph, work out as hoped, then this could be an All-Star secondary. If not, it could be Swiss Cheese.... and the defense will go the way they go.

Interesting to note:

Bleacher Report listed the ranking of every NFL teams QB's Support.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2895219-ranking-every-nfl-qbs-supporting-cast-for-2020


KC is listed as number one. The Browns listed as number two.

If that's actually the case, then I'm doubling down on my opinion. With how our division loves to run the ball, wanting to run more of a dime D would be one of the more Brownsiest decisions we've made, recently.

From your link: Here is what they had to say about the Browns supporting cast.

A fair assessment IMO

Is the implication that Baker blamed his supporting cast in 2019?

There is no question coming from me that Baker should improve from last season.

At the same time in order for the team to win it will require contributions from all of the 53 man roster along with the coaches.

I don't think it's Baker so much blamed his supporting cast as it was.... ah, never mind.

I didn't read it that way and I never heard Baker blame others. However, a lot of people have made a lot of excuses for his poor play last year. I think the comment was more about outside people rather than Baker or people who are w/the team.

Another thing............it was interesting to see they had the Browns ranked number 1 last year. I did, too. In fact, I even bet money that Baker would win the MVP last year.

It depends. No doubt you have to have a box safety in the mix.

Not to look back, but a guy like Peppers might have come in handy about now. The good news is that more and more of that type of player are hitting the draft every year. That is what made Simmons such a big deal. He can play well at multiple positions.

You must have been reading my mind...

I truly enjoyed most of the reads in this thread and it has inspired me to add my 2 cents.

I think the Browns this season will be the team we all hoped they would be last season. The one thing I wished we had done last season and this is hire an experienced head coach.

I think that when you have a team that has lost as much as the Browns have over the past 20+ years you need experience and discipline at the HC position. That is not to say that a rookie HC can't win it's the power of having a known commodity running your football operation on the field. When the bullets start flying how will the head man react?

I see this team doing a 180 from last season based on the offense that KS ran in Minn. We will become a team that goes thru Chubb & Hunt and not so much Bake. With the outside threats we have and the TE situation we become a very potent Run 1st, play action football team. The big big mistake that Freddie made was not using Chubb to be the center piece of the offense, that to me is the key. From there everything gets better.

With the improvement at RT and LT we should become a much better running team and with a TE that can actually block will be a ground and pound team, that can beat you on the outside at any moment. I used to love the old Raiders teams they would grind and grind away with the run and then out of nowhere they would beat you over the top. This is my vision of this years Browns.

This offense is as loaded and I think more loaded than any team in the league, don't make Bake carry the offense and they will be worlds better.

The KEY in my eyes is getting another edge rusher I believe the brass has it right we lack a rotation to apply pressure and hold the edges Clowney would be huge for us if we can manage to sign him. The Browns are said to have the best offer on the table I see a great rotational situation developing that will Allow Garret, Vernon, and Clowney?? to be all world.

The LB situation is of Concern we need someone in the middle that can lay the wood. I see no need for Clay Jr although there has been plenty of talk on these boards.

I think the Browns are being hugely under-estimated this is our year we can be a dominate football team if we are run based with Chubb and Hunt carrying the load, and of course when the focus shifts to Chubb and Hunt we go over the top.

We also signed Adrian Clayborn to rotate at DE.

I didn't think this deserved it's own thread - but an interesting piece from PFF on predicting floor / ceiling for each team.

As you can imagine - there's a lot of similar forecasting for best/worst case scenario .... but Cleveland's fate is somewhat predictably linked to how Baker performs.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-best-worse-case-scenarios-every-afc-team-2020-season

CLEVELAND BROWNS
10th percentile outcome: 6-10
How they get there: Baker Mayfield‘s struggles last season weren’t merely a product of poor coaching and dysfunction; they were an indicator of real issues. Those pocket presence woes aren’t fixed by the additions of Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills on the offensive line, and Mayfield is still missing too many passes. PFF's Sam Monson laid out the reasons to expect Mayfield to bounce back in 2020 earlier this offseason, but if he doesn’t, another disappointing season could be in store for Cleveland.

90th percentile outcome: 11-5
How they get there: Mayfield looks more like the player we saw for three seasons at Oklahoma and as a rookie than the disappointing version we got last year, and the talent on Cleveland’s defense stays healthy and produces.

Obviously, Mayfield is the key in that equation, but the defense is an underrated component to Cleveland’s success. Denzel Ward has graded out as one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL in single coverage, and Cleveland adds several more high draft picks in Greedy Williams, Grant Delpit and Karl Joseph into the fold. The defensive line is loaded with talent too — particularly Myles Garrett, who was the highest-graded pass rusher off the edge in the entire league at the time of his suspension. That talent just needs to stay on the field.

Not unreasonable.... I mean, really, Baker is the only really significant question mark.

It's a fair bet that Stefanski and crew are solid. You can just feel the stability; they aren't hype and rah-rah. They're smart and calculated.

The LBers are the main question on defense, but they're really not such a big deal as they've been made at times on here recently. They will be masked GREATLY by the DLine and the secondary.


Barring a rash of injuries that completely deplete our talent in one of the major position groups, that leaves only Baker as the Great Unknown.

If we get the second-half 2018 Baker, this team will be making a run at the AFC Championship. If we get the 2019 Baker, we will be a perennial 7-9 to 9-7 team that needs a QB and always falls short.

Stefanski and crew is NOT a fair bet. He doesn't have HC experience, and we're fresh off the Freddie ride. We had Freddie in-house and saw "his offense" at work in 2018, and we still got 2019.

I absolutely 100% disagree with you. Freddie has absolutely nothing at all to do with Stefanski, except that it maybe makes you feel burnt by the experience.

Not having HC experience isn't an issue to me. The job is a managerial job and guys that are not good at self-organizing or are not meticulous will not do well. This fact alone could have actually predicted Freddie's failure, but this also supports that Stefanski will do alright. Additionally, the ability to manage personnel is a large factor. Again, a knock on Freddie, but by all appearances a notch in favor of Stefanski.

The job isn't as X's and O's as being a coordinator, as Freddie found out. It is setting schedules, managing people, and making sure things are ordered and in place, and then overseeing your X's and O's guys.


I have little doubts at all of Stefanski's ability to effectively run this team as he has CEO traits and personality to go with his football acumen. If you look at other successful coaches, that's the sort of mold they are cut from. When you look at the guys that fail, they're the X's & O's types that are maybe great rah-rah guys, but aren't great organizationally.

In terms of stages of development I can't think of Baker being in any better of a situation. With the amount play makers at his disposal? There's only 2 things I think Baker needs to do this year:

a) set the right tone
b) competently execute the scheme and get the ball in their hands

Their success will be his success. He has All Pro talent around him so he isn't burdened with having to elevate the play of some average guys. Don't get me wrong, I would love an MVP candidate type of season out of him, but the guy doesn't need to play hero ball.

After 20 plus years of watching people put their faith in potential rather than results, be that coaches, FO's or players, all I see here is history repeating itself in the faith of Stefanski. We haven't always been wrong with this approach. But more times than not we have.

I certainly agree with what you see in him. And I certainly hope that you are right. But that doesn't mean the math is sound.

It doesn't mean it is unsound, either... it just means we have to wait and see.

If you only look at possible predictors of success at the position, however, I think he has a better than average shot.

The amount of talent surrounding Baker is just absurd. It's like a Madden team.

If Tim Couch had this much around him, he'd be in Canton, lol!

I'll go with wait and see.

I'm in wait and see too - despite being extremely optimistic.

The only thing I will go out on a limb and state that I believe to be true no matter what happens - Stefanski is going to be a WAY better HC than Freddie Kitchens.

j/c:

I think that the three biggest factors/unknowns are the same as what I believed a year ago.

1. Baker: Did he put in the proper work during the off-season? Will he keep his mouth shut and focus on football? Will he be better at reading coverages? Will he make good decisions? Will he stop trying to throw every pass through a brick wall?

2. Coaching: Is Stefanski a leader of men or just another right coordinator? Will the staff mesh? Will they be able to overcome not having adequate time due to the virus?

3. Chemistry: I think #s 1 and 2 will have a lot to do w/that. I also think that it is pretty important for the team to have some success early on.

The team has enough talent to win a ton of games. Not sure if they will or not.

This is the only correct answer.

Well, that and Epstein didn't kill himself

That's not saying a lot.

A chicken randomly pecking at a playbook covered in corn would do better at HC than Kitchens.

That was sort of the point ... maybe "out on a limb" shoulda been purple

if he had a decent offensive line and coaching, he would be in canton or at least taken us to a Superbowl.

We absolutely destroyed a high-quality QB that has the potential to be a star.

a few years ago, I looked at his stats and all I could think was how bad we would have killed for that kind of QB play after him.

I completely disagree. Tim Couch was terrible. He held the ball longer than any qb in the league. He couldn't read coverages. He became gun-shy and would not step into throws. His arm was barely average. He had a 2-cent head. Dude was the worst draft choice we ever made in the modern era.

Hmmmm...........Manziel and Gilber might have been worse, but Couch was chosen first overall. Tough call.

Couch under the best circumstances would have made it to average for a couple years.

He played for bad teams and got progressively worse.

100% agree.. this offense (on paper)is stacked. The only hole I see is LT... and that's only because we have an unknown there. Some will say our RG is also a weakness, Maybe but we have plenty of contenders there that have played well enough..

j/c mostly.

I'm still concerned about RG. Yes, we have options...but someone has to step up and be better than Kush. Teller looked better as the year went on last year and Callahan really likes the guy...so there is room for optimism.

We still have a rookie LT who is transitioning from RT and with 3/5th of the guys being new from 2019 TC, it could take some time to gel.

I think the 2018 version of Baker is the norm and 2019 was the exception and was a disaster in numerous, dead-horse-beaten ways.

If your only real concern on an OLine is RG and you have studs at RT & C, you don't actually have any concerns at RG.

lol, and you probably thought Holcomb was a QB.

if you go back and look at his stats, he was average and stayed average with the absolute worst line and horrid coaching.

He had was consistently averaging what would be about 3200 passing yards a year in a 16 game season 60% completion ratio 64 TD's with 67 ints in his career.

Believe it or not, he also had a lot of magic in him that went unnoticed too. Out of 62 games, he had 10 comebacks and 11 game-winning drives.

McNabb even talked a lot about how if he went to the Browns, we would have destroyed him and he thought Couch was a better QB than him. FWIW

jc...

All of the usual issues mentioned when the Browns are faced with another of their many regime changes.

But a major concern of mine is A LACK OF QUALITY DEPTH...

What if 4 or 5 starters test positive C-19?

How the teams plan for such a situation could determine success or failure of the Browns 2020 season.

It's hard to find fault with your comments.. I just seem to feel our options at RG might work out.

It's no doubt going to take our new LT time to get grounded. But if what the powers that be are right about him, he's a guy that can get it done. We'll see.