Quote:
Posted by Mike Florio on March 31, 2010 12:56 PM ET
Many NFL scouts have a sore spot for failed NFL scouts who enter the media and attempt to critique the work of NFL scouts who have not yet failed.
Even more NFL scouts have a sore spot for guys who were never NFL scouts, couldn't be if they wanted to, and then attempt to critique the work of folks who became NFL scouts.
Once upon a time, Mel Kiper was the primary target of NFL scouts; Kiper has been supplanted by his on-air protege/rival at ESPN, Todd McShay. As McShay's profile increases, and as he takes on the likes of quarterback Jimmy Clausen for reasons that many league insiders believe have no merit, McShay becomes a magnet for criticism.
"Most people at my level feel he is a joke," a veteran NFL scout told us via e-mail. "People in the league respect Kiper. He is not a true scout but he does work at it. A lot of his info he gets from connections in the league, and over the years he has made quite a few. When he was younger he used to burn some bridges. He doesn't do that any more."
So what about McShay?
"McShay does not have any good connections," the source opined. "Higher-ups in the league think he is an arrogant .... A know-it-all. And he really knows nothing. Whatever he says about a quarterback, take it to the bank, it will be the opposite. Remember, last August he stated that Jevan Snead was better than Colt McCoy and would get drafted in the top five. He has yet to publicly retract that statement.
"One of the reasons the kid came out was because of what McShay said. The family thought McShay knew and everyone else was wrong. . . . He has problems with game management, accuracy and leadership among other things, but pretty boy Todd thought he was great because of one good game (the Cotton Bowl) a year ago. McShay is a pretty face who comes across like he knows what he is talking about. He does have good presence, but knows nothing."
A common name we've heard when it comes to McShay is Andre Woodson. McShay championed Woodson during the 2007 season. Woodson ended up being a sixth-round pick, and he's now out of the league.
The teams knew that Woodson wasn't as good as McShay was saying. The problem is that the player and his family don't have access to what the teams are thinking. The player and his family see and hear the stuff that gets played on television, and they tend to believe it when ESPN attaches to the talking head the phony, official-sounding title of "director of college scouting."
But not all draft experts fall into that category.
"The best guy in the amateur scouting/draftnik business in Mike Mayock," the source said. "Mike does more film work then any of those other guys put together. He is the only one who has access to the NFL dub center where all the college tapes go before they get distributed to the teams. He watches hours and hours of tape. You might not always agree with his evaluations but he works hard at it and you have to respect that."
The source ended with a prediction regarding Clausen's prospects.
"On draft day McShay will look like a fool because whether or not you like Clausen as a person he is very talented," the source said. "He has more training and game time in a pro system than any quarterback in the draft. His improvement from '08 to '09 was tremendous. If Notre Dame had a defense, Charlie Weis would still be there coaching. Offense was not the problem. I will agree that Clausen may have some A-hole in him but he is extremely talented. He has a strong arm and is very accurate. Plus he has played a lot in a pro system."
In our view, McShay does present well on television, where the requirement isn't to know what you're talking about but to seem like you know what you're talking about. But we've heard from more than a few people who work as NFL scouts that McShay doesn't know what he's talking about. Right or wrong, those voices will only get louder in their criticism as McShay gets more air time -- and as he becomes more pointed with criticisms of players that NFL scouts regard as erroneous.
web page
Granted its from Mike Florino, but provided some more strong discussion points I thought.
The initial wave started with his Clausen evaluation here.
Anyways its something to keep in mind when watching ESPN.
If it was from multiple sources I would believe it more. But it's all quotes from one guy.
Didn't we all already know McShay was terrible and Mayock was the guy to listen to anyways?
I thought u were smack shacking deepthreat for a second..
I thought the most interesting point was the effect he has on college guys like Woodson and Snead. Granted Snead needs to use his head and realize he sucked last season and another season in college would really help him, but I thought the article provided some angles that I may not have thought of otherwise. Plus it kind of blasted ESPN's coverage which is always a plus!
Yeah ESPN's coverage of the draft is pretty much terrible. That usually happens when you have Chris Berman leading the way. I guess it will be a little better this year because they will have Schefter, but I won't know. I only watch the NFL Network for the draft and pregame/postgame.
If you have NFL Network they are the go to guys for the draft especially. Eisen, Mariucci, Mayock, and Charles Davis are all very good.
Nobody is perfect but Mayock is as good as it gets. Teamed with Charles Davis i think they make as good of a combo as i have ever seen , heard or read.
Again JMO....
I agree, as much as I like Schefter and Mort, they aren't enough to offset berman and crew so I stick with the NFL channel.
I thought McShay use to be a scout for the Eagles?
Either way, I find myself agreeing with Kiper more than McShay.
Holmgren must like McShay because he asked McShays advice about Tebow. Not saying Holmgren took it to heart but he must have respected him enough to talk football with him.
I'll say it now. I completely agree with the article. McShay is a clown with no respect from anyone in the business. Kiper has respect for the work he puts in, his knowledge in general, and the fact that he created an entire career field. But Mayock gets more respect than anyone for the amount of time he spends going over film and his general knowledge of the game.
If nothing else, I'm glad he's finally getting called out in the national media. He's always been awful.
I happen to trust Daniel Jeremiah more than any of these clowns.
Quote:
I happen to trust Daniel Jeremiah more than any of these clowns.
Me too.
mayock is kind of annoying, and there have been times he has said stuff and i went "what??" i remember he tried pointing out a weakness in ohio state's secondary by bring up specific plays from the osu/michigan game the year before, a game in which ohio state completely dominated the wolverines from start to finish.
mcshay is awful. kiper is somewhat better, but what these guys are trying to do is way too hard. there are way too many factors that go into it.
i honestly wouldn't care if they removed draft experts and just did the draft, and put together some highlight packages of each guy, maybe an interview with a coach or teammate...
i have always taken those guys with a grain of salt. i usually do ok myself with prospects as i watch a ton of college football. i think there are people on this very board who could do what mcshay or kiper does and get the same results.
Quote:
i think there are people on this very board who could do what mcshay or kiper does and get the same results.
This goes for Joe Lunardi, too. I know he's basketball, but it still falls into the "ESPN puts guys who talk like they know what they're doing" category.
People are always talking about how Lunardi gets 62-65 teams right every year for the NCAA tournament, and I just keep thinking about how dumb people are for thinking that's an accomplishment.
Think about it, out of 65 teams, you have 31 conference tournament winners, which leaves 34 at-large bids. Out of those 34 at-large bids, about 28 of them are no doubt teams.
So basically all Lunardi does is pick 6 teams out of about 12 bubble teams every year, and somehow people are impressed if he gets 3 of those teams right and gets 62 of the 65 tournament teams right. 
I like Jeremiah in evaluating, but not projecting. I'd take any of them but McShay over him there.
That's why Jeremiah is the only credible source. He's actually a former scout unlike the other clowns.
Just because they don't have NFL pedigrees doesn't mean they aren't credible.
Quote:
Just because they don't have NFL pedigrees doesn't mean they aren't credible.
Why any bum with a pad of paper and an internet connection can be a draft "expert". 
Remember, ESPN is the same network that pays Skip Brainless money for his opinions.
I don't really have a problem with Kiper. What he does is go out and get the opinions of scouts and other people inside the NFL and uses that to formulate how the draft is going to go and how people should be ranked. he isn't watching film and scouting the guys himself ... but he puts a lot of work into pulling in info from other sources. Mayock spend time doing the leg work of an actual scout and gives us his opinion. I can respect that as well.
McShay watches a few college games and mugs for the camera while trying to sell himself off as an expert. 
A draft expert is someone who has gained respect for their work. I bring up Scott Wright.
Top.. funny you should bring up Lunardi...
My daughter submitted a sheet for our office march madness poll this year but said she didn't know anything about college bball.. I suggested she just go online and copy Lunardi's picks, so she did... verbatim. She is in about 60th place out of 87 know-nothing office guys, their wives, and kids.. he can't even break into the top half against a group of people who claim to know very little about college basketball.
Quote:
A draft expert is someone who has gained respect for their work. I bring up Scott Wright.
Scott Wright is a joke. I used to read his stuff frequently but then realized he really does not know what he is doing.
Check this out from 2007.
What do you think about the Niners moving up to make a play at Michigan DT Alan Branch? What would we have to give up to make a move like that?
b]Scott: Branch could still go as high as #4 overall so it would be quite expensive, to the tune of 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders, to get up that high. Now if he falls to #7, #8 or #9 it obviously gets cheaper to move up.
http://www.49erswebzone.com/content/commentary/view.php?id=534
Branch was taken with pick #33. I understand that the draft is a fluid process and players fall. But that is vastly overvaluing someone. And it wasn't like it was real early in the process. The article is from March.
That was early in the draft process. Players drop and fall. To knock on him because of that is beyond stupid.
Quote:
That was early in the draft process. Players drop and fall. To knock on him because of that is beyond stupid.
Don't forget he had Quinn as one of his greatest QB ever prospects...and we saw how that turned out. 
Quote:
That was early in the draft process. Players drop and fall. To knock on him because of that is beyond stupid.
Nope. Not stupid. Regardless of 2nd week of March or 2nd week of April, an expert should be able to identify a top 5 overall defensive player.
I gave a specific reason.
What has he done that has convinced you that he is good?
The fact that in 2004 he matched up the right player and team on the first 15 picks. The fact that most of his top players turn out well, and the guys he criticizes a lot privately don't.
And I don't even like the guy for reasons I won't get into. But I have a lot of respect for him as a draft expert.
Loki, almost every expert was wrong on Quinn, and everyone is wrong sometimes. But he was very right on JT, AP, and Calvin Johnson that year.
Quote:
The fact that in 2004 he matched up the right player and team on the first 15 picks. The fact that most of his top players turn out well, and the guys he criticizes a lot privately don't.
Why don't you post that? I have never seen anyone get the top 15 picks right and don't remember Wright doing it.
.
Quote:
Loki, almost every expert was wrong on Quinn, and everyone is wrong sometimes. But he was very right on JT, AP, and Calvin Johnson that year.
That's bullcrap. Wright put Quinn in with Manning and Carson Palmer. And not every expert wiffed on Quinn. To convince you that Quinn wasn't a Super QB prospect this is what Mayock said referring to Quinn.
Quote:
“I had him going late in the first round,” Mayock said Sunday at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Does that sound like a franchise, greatest QB prospect ever? You act like you are so smart....but everyone knows that you're just acting...
http://www.morningjournal.com/articles/2010/03/02/sports/doc4b8c9ab062105376337507.txt 
It was 15 of the first 16. Bite me.
http://www.draftcountdown.com/archive/2004/2004-Mock.php
And I guess you didn't notice the word "almost". Excellent reading comprehension.
Deep is right that Scott Wright had a great 2004. He was ranked I believe #1 for his mock. That is how he got some notoriety. But since then what has he really done?
He has had a lot of good mocks, and I think his rankings are pretty much top notch. Don't take my word for it though; pay attention to what he says. I know a lot of people with a lot of respect for him.
And like I said, I really don't even like him.
[
Seriously dude his mocks have been average at best since 2004. How many did get right last year?
And also why did you ignore the Quinn stuff?
When I said "almost every expert had Quinn ranked that high". And then you use one example to disprove that.
He had 8 right in the first round last year. Definitely not bad.
Quote:
When I said "almost every expert had Quinn ranked that high". And then you use one example to disprove that.
He had 8 right in the first round last year. Definitely not bad.
How many does your average Joe have right? I know I average about that. And not almost every expert had him that high or someone would have picked up him before 22.
Quote:
Don't take my word for it though; pay attention to what he says. I know a lot of people with a lot of respect for him.
And like I said, I really don't even like him.
I don't take your word for it. And I do pay attention, hence why I called you out.
So do you believe that Bulaga will go before Okung?
Do you believe that Mccoy will go before Suh?
Do you believe Taylor Mays in the 1st round?
Deep, I believe earlier in the year you stated that this years OT class was weak for stud OT's. Scott Wright has 4 going in the top 10.
I know I did better than that last year, but mocks aren't that big of a deal to me. I like his rankings more than anything.
You think NFL teams listen to experts? lol When I say experts, I mean the guys in the media.
Quote:
I know I did better than that last year, but mocks aren't that big of a deal to me. I like his rankings more than anything.
You think NFL teams listen to experts? lol When I say experts, I mean the guys in the media.
Yeah I should listen to guy who had Alan Branch in the top 10 and Brad Quinn as the greatest QB prospect ever.....Think not.
Keep believing that. In the meantime, try finding anyone better.
Quote:
Keep believing that. In the meantime, try finding anyone better.
I personally like Mike Mayock but don't get the NFL network so I am stuck reading the stuff he posts.
I remember a couple of years ago (it might have been the Quinn draft) Mayock predicted the first 9 or 10 picks correctly with trades.
Quote:
That's bullcrap. Wright put Quinn in with Manning and Carson Palmer. And not every expert wiffed on Quinn. To convince you that Quinn wasn't a Super QB prospect this is what Mayock said referring to Quinn.
Heck, even the expert Diam wiffed on Quinn 
Even though I wanted Quinn to start over DA this year, Im not a Quinn supporter. I was really really hoping the Browns didnt get Quinn that year. I didnt like giving up a second and a first the next year at all. Granted I wished for the best, but I thought the whole time Weiss was talking out his ass about how good Quinn was.
Quote:
Yeah I should listen to guy who had Alan Branch in the top 10 and Brad Quinn as the greatest QB prospect ever.....Think not.
You're pulling up 2 prospect he was wrong on in this guys entire career. There is such a wide variety of factors as to why guys don't work out in the NFL that cant be studied on college game tape. Despite your opinion or if you personally like him Scott Wright has a solid reputation and puts in the time. The guy is respected in the industry and does solid work. Plus he critized the browns last year in the second round on his podcast for taking Veikune, which I like.