A Closer look at the QB market. - 02/26/18 01:43 AM
This might help a few of us wrap our heads around which team will do what in their search for a QB. Add any teams or QBs or any other thoughts that you can think of below this and I'll compile it into a new post on this thread later. I put the teams 1st round pick number and cap room below. Cap room is from Overthecap.com and I am not sure when it was last updated.
The teams
New York Giants - No. 2 - $24,535,434
New York is unlikely to look for a QB in FA. They will most likely take advantage of their draft position to pick the successor to Eli Manning. They could also trade down if given the right offer.
Indianapolis Colts - No. 3 - $74,194,402.
The Colts have plenty of cap room, so it is possible they could pursue a FA QB, but I would assume that would only happen if they have given up on Luck's recovery. They could also draft a QB #3 if they are uncertain about his recovery or trade down if they get a good offer and want to take their chances.
Denver Broncos - No. 5 - $26,848,245
Denver is in a tough position. They are built to win now and can't afford to spend time developing a QB, but are also a little tight in cap space in a year where the best QB's will be getting big paychecks. They can make some cuts and make more cap room, but that makes them a less desirable spot for the bigger name QB's. In my opinion, this would actually be a good spot for Josh McCown. He can play well enough to get them wins and give them time to develop Paxton Lynch or a QB that they draft at #5. I could also see Buffalo offering them both #1 picks and Tyrod Taylor for their pick.
New York Jets - No. 6 - $73,196,618
The Jets have enough money to sign any QB that they want and I expect them to sign a starter and draft his successor much like the Browns want to do.
Arizona Cardinals - No. 15 - $22,159,438
AZ is probably rebuilding so they will most likely draft a QB of the future. They also need a bridge starter and will most likely select a journeyman because of their low cap room.
Los Angeles Chargers - No. 17 - $23,762,546
It's time for the Chargers to look for the heir to Rivers. They aren't any threat in FA, but will take a value QB if one falls to 17.
Buffalo Bills - Nos. 21 and 22 - $29,578,581
Buffalo has already been rumored to be trying to trade up into the top ten for a QB and they have enough ammunition to get there.
Pittsburgh Steelers - No. 28 - $6,540,224
Pitt really needs to find their QB of the future. They will jump on any value that falls to this spot in the draft.
Jacksonville Jaguars - No. 29 - $21,414,610
Jacksonville really wants someone to fall to #29, but as you can see above, other teams are waiting to snag a value QB if one drops. I think that they are going to pursue options to trade up. They don't have the cap room to make a difference in FA.
Minnesota Vikings - No. 30 - $49,053,643
Minnesota is interesting because they have 3 homegrown FA's that have proven that they can win games for them and might not choose any of them. This spot is probably most attractive for Kirk Cousins because they can afford a $30 mil contract without having to make cuts and have enough talent to make a Superbowl push with the right QB. If Minnesota likes Cousins better than what they have, teams will have to throw massive amounts of money at Cousins to sway him from signing there.
Free Agent QB's
Drew Brees
Probably isn't going anywhere without throwing massive amounts of money at him but is listed here because the Browns and the Jets have massive amounts of money.
Kirk Cousins
Will get $30 mil plus from whatever team he plays for and much more than that to sway him to a lesser team. He will get wins for the team that signs him.
Case Keenum
Is probably the favorite of the 3 FA's to come back to the Vikings unless the Vikings make a run at Cousins.
Teddy Bridgewater
Could be a bargain if healthy, but that is a big risk.
Sam Bradford
Might be even a bigger health risk than Bridgewater.
Josh McCown
Can be a solid QB in most systems. Will probably be the best value for a bridge QB.
A.J. McCarron
Lacks arm strength and is a poor choice for a vertical system. He could be a good game manager in the right system and will get paid a lot of money given his age.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Much like Josh McCown, in that he could have value as a bridge QB.
Matt Moore
I don't see value as a bridge starter. Someone will value him as a backup though.
Jay Cutler
He still has a live arm but that's about it for Jay.
Derek Anderson
He wouldn't be considered here given his history, but is a good fit for a vertical offense.
Drew Stanton
We're starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel.
Blaine Gabbert
We're looking under the barrel now.
The Draft
This draft is top heavy in first round QB's and I would expect 6 QB's to be drafted in the first round. I also expect some movement by teams lower in the draft to try and leapfrog others to snag the guy they want. The match between the potential that's available and the needs for future replacements is just too great for teams not to take risks in this draft. I would not be shocked if 4 QB's were drafted in the top 5 picks.
The teams
New York Giants - No. 2 - $24,535,434
New York is unlikely to look for a QB in FA. They will most likely take advantage of their draft position to pick the successor to Eli Manning. They could also trade down if given the right offer.
Indianapolis Colts - No. 3 - $74,194,402.
The Colts have plenty of cap room, so it is possible they could pursue a FA QB, but I would assume that would only happen if they have given up on Luck's recovery. They could also draft a QB #3 if they are uncertain about his recovery or trade down if they get a good offer and want to take their chances.
Denver Broncos - No. 5 - $26,848,245
Denver is in a tough position. They are built to win now and can't afford to spend time developing a QB, but are also a little tight in cap space in a year where the best QB's will be getting big paychecks. They can make some cuts and make more cap room, but that makes them a less desirable spot for the bigger name QB's. In my opinion, this would actually be a good spot for Josh McCown. He can play well enough to get them wins and give them time to develop Paxton Lynch or a QB that they draft at #5. I could also see Buffalo offering them both #1 picks and Tyrod Taylor for their pick.
New York Jets - No. 6 - $73,196,618
The Jets have enough money to sign any QB that they want and I expect them to sign a starter and draft his successor much like the Browns want to do.
Arizona Cardinals - No. 15 - $22,159,438
AZ is probably rebuilding so they will most likely draft a QB of the future. They also need a bridge starter and will most likely select a journeyman because of their low cap room.
Los Angeles Chargers - No. 17 - $23,762,546
It's time for the Chargers to look for the heir to Rivers. They aren't any threat in FA, but will take a value QB if one falls to 17.
Buffalo Bills - Nos. 21 and 22 - $29,578,581
Buffalo has already been rumored to be trying to trade up into the top ten for a QB and they have enough ammunition to get there.
Pittsburgh Steelers - No. 28 - $6,540,224
Pitt really needs to find their QB of the future. They will jump on any value that falls to this spot in the draft.
Jacksonville Jaguars - No. 29 - $21,414,610
Jacksonville really wants someone to fall to #29, but as you can see above, other teams are waiting to snag a value QB if one drops. I think that they are going to pursue options to trade up. They don't have the cap room to make a difference in FA.
Minnesota Vikings - No. 30 - $49,053,643
Minnesota is interesting because they have 3 homegrown FA's that have proven that they can win games for them and might not choose any of them. This spot is probably most attractive for Kirk Cousins because they can afford a $30 mil contract without having to make cuts and have enough talent to make a Superbowl push with the right QB. If Minnesota likes Cousins better than what they have, teams will have to throw massive amounts of money at Cousins to sway him from signing there.
Free Agent QB's
Drew Brees
Probably isn't going anywhere without throwing massive amounts of money at him but is listed here because the Browns and the Jets have massive amounts of money.
Kirk Cousins
Will get $30 mil plus from whatever team he plays for and much more than that to sway him to a lesser team. He will get wins for the team that signs him.
Case Keenum
Is probably the favorite of the 3 FA's to come back to the Vikings unless the Vikings make a run at Cousins.
Teddy Bridgewater
Could be a bargain if healthy, but that is a big risk.
Sam Bradford
Might be even a bigger health risk than Bridgewater.
Josh McCown
Can be a solid QB in most systems. Will probably be the best value for a bridge QB.
A.J. McCarron
Lacks arm strength and is a poor choice for a vertical system. He could be a good game manager in the right system and will get paid a lot of money given his age.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Much like Josh McCown, in that he could have value as a bridge QB.
Matt Moore
I don't see value as a bridge starter. Someone will value him as a backup though.
Jay Cutler
He still has a live arm but that's about it for Jay.
Derek Anderson
He wouldn't be considered here given his history, but is a good fit for a vertical offense.
Drew Stanton
We're starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel.
Blaine Gabbert
We're looking under the barrel now.
The Draft
This draft is top heavy in first round QB's and I would expect 6 QB's to be drafted in the first round. I also expect some movement by teams lower in the draft to try and leapfrog others to snag the guy they want. The match between the potential that's available and the needs for future replacements is just too great for teams not to take risks in this draft. I would not be shocked if 4 QB's were drafted in the top 5 picks.