The current thread is on page 10. I thought I would start a new one following the trend set by Swish and Purp. Purp, you can delete this if you want to set the thread titles. No biggie.
This could be good news. From Johns Hopkins University website. Click link for full Q & A.
GHN Exclusive | Global Health | Infectious Diseases COVID-19’s Stop-Gap Solution Until Vaccines and Antivirals Are Ready March 19, 2020 Brian W. Simpson Editor-in-chief
As novel coronavirus cases continue to mount globally, humanity can’t turn to its go-to infectious disease fixes: vaccines and drugs. At least not yet. A new vaccine might be at least 12 to 18 months away though new drug treatments will likely come sooner.
Arturo Casadevall, chair of the Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, is helping organize a national effort to use antibodies from recovered COVID-19 patients for protection and treatments. In a March 13 Journal of Clinical Investigation article, Casadevall and Liise-anne Pirofski of the Albert Einstein College of Medicine proposed the stop-gap measure of using plasma (serum) from the blood of survivors until a vaccine and antiviral medications are available.
In this Q&A with Global Health NOW, Casadevall says clinical trials could begin in 3–4 weeks provided that they clear all the regulatory steps. If that happens, he anticipates widespread availability by early summer.
The sister of my better half tested positive today
First and foremost I pray she will have the milder affects of the virus.
Secondly what symptoms and how bad were they for her to get tested ?
And for all the people who are sick and the ones who have lost their jobs and all that have hardships from this. I deeply sympathize for you and will pray for you all to find comfort and that things get back to normal for all soon.
I could definitely use some prayers. With my wife only currently working 12 hours a week, and her employer closing most operations, and me being self employed - the state hasn't shut me down, but people worried about income has.............well, let's just say I/we are screwed.
ACME and now Giant Eagle grocery stores in the Northeast Ohio area have started installing these protective shields between the cashier and customer.
Long overdue.
I also want to pass along prayers and well wishes for those with loved ones who either have, or might be infected with this virus. I pray for mild symptoms, and a speedy and quick return to full health.
I also wanted to say that ...... I bought 2 12=24 packs of toilet paper today! I'm saved! (and no, I'm not giving out my address, and I am armed!)
Sorry to hear that Arch, truly sorry. Hopefully congress will do something to help sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, maybe you should call Health and Human Services for a list of programs in your county. Community action and some others might be able to help fend off the wolves until things get moving again or the government decides to help. The sad part is, the way they are talking, they are going to help people with expanded unemployment and unless you carry insurance on yourself I'm not sure you would qualify with her still on books for that 12 hours, might be better if she was laid off.
As a self employed person, as it is, even though I pay unemployment and pay workmen's comp, I can not collect any benefits. And I get that, because if it were different, we'd have all kinds of people claiming "I was self employed, but now I don't have any work....."
I've been doing what I do for 17 years. Good times, and bad times. Winters have always been slow for me. We're coming out of winter, and things haven't picked up. Surgery bills, wife not working for 2 months (although she did go back to 12 hours a week a month early - the company was amazed she would do that)
But, we hit the trifecta: Her not working, me being slow, and corona virus, which has literally closed me down.
Oh, and daughter, at home because college closed, and pissed at me for not letting her do her social thing.
I guess we'll - I guess I will - find out if stress is a killer. I've never been a rich person, and that was fine, but we're living on savings right now for the most part. Can do that for a while before we start selling assets.
Never in a million years did I think a virus would put the kebosh on me. I was wrong. I'm just not in a good mood/place right now.
We've been shut down since 3/13. When this crisis passes, who will be willing to congregate in public spaces that accommodate 1500 or more?
Public gatherings may actually become a thing of the past.
This global crisis isn't just news on the TV any more. It's now hitting our homes.
Stay safe.
I couldn't agree more.
The social effect this will have will be quite interesting.
My kids have resumed classes via Zoom. They see their friends on screens. They haven't been allowed to play with their friends for going on 10 days now.
Things like ApplePay are going to boom. No more exchanging credit cards to merchants and passing germs.
People will certainly be hesitant to return to mass events until a vaccine is available.
I think that things will return to normal when this ends.
I remember 9-11, and how the airlines were shut down, no one wanted to leave their homes, ravel, go out anywhere that might be unsafe, and so forth.
People even returned to church in large droves.
A month or so later, and life started to return to normal. Even NYC started the process of living again. 3 months later, people were flying to vacation destinations.
Arch I went through something similar in 08-09 with losing my business, followed by crap health. The last thing you want to do is dwell on the stuff you can't change. Just do what you can everyday to make things better, confide in your wife and never stop sharing how you each feel, and plug away because it will get better.
ACME and now Giant Eagle grocery stores in the Northeast Ohio area have started installing these protective shields between the cashier and customer.
Long overdue.
I also want to pass along prayers and well wishes for those with loved ones who either have, or might be infected with this virus. I pray for mild symptoms, and a speedy and quick return to full health.
I also wanted to say that ...... I bought 2 12=24 packs of toilet paper today! I'm saved! (and no, I'm not giving out my address, and I am armed!)
Same here with the feelings of love towards those getting hit hard.
Good news on the TP. You feel like a lottery winner when you go in and find some.
I think that things will return to normal when this ends.
I remember 9-11, and how the airlines were shut down, no one wanted to leave their homes, ravel, go out anywhere that might be unsafe, and so forth.
People even returned to church in large droves.
A month or so later, and life started to return to normal. Even NYC started the process of living again. 3 months later, people were flying to vacation destinations.
We are a very, very resilient people.
Yet it took nearly 20 years for us to become financially and medically responsible and protect the survivors and first responders that are still suffering today.
I think that things will return to normal when this ends.
I remember 9-11, and how the airlines were shut down, no one wanted to leave their homes, ravel, go out anywhere that might be unsafe, and so forth.
People even returned to church in large droves.
A month or so later, and life started to return to normal. Even NYC started the process of living again. 3 months later, people were flying to vacation destinations.
We are a very, very resilient people.
I tend to agree with this at this moment although I think it will be a personal choice for many and each person/family is going to tailor their behavior to their level of concern. I have tried not to leave the house much in the last two weeks, but when I have you wouldn't know Vegas was in a lockdown. Looks like business as usual on any other day. Although I have not driven down the strip which I heard is quite interesting right now.
To all those affected by this, Prp and others, praying for the best. Stay safe, be smart, take care of your family and loved ones the best you can. At some point, we are all going to have to return to normal lives, even if this isn't completely nipped in the bud. It's not feasible to expect people to be on lockdown for months at a time. I thought Trump said something interesting the other day "the cure can't be worse than the disease". That's kind of where we are at, especially with people's financial well being. There is no recovering from this financially. This is a do over. The market has been reset. Many businesses are going to choose simply not to reopen. It won't be worth it. Unemployment will be high for a long time. This is just a different time. But at some point, we have to get back to as much of normal as we can for people's mental well being as well.
Take care everyone. Be smart. Be safe. Hopefully we will start to see the social distancing and lockdowns start to work.
Column: An emergency room physician writes from the COVID-19 front lines Matt Beecroft, MD Posted at 4:16 AM Updated at 8:43 AM
I’ve never noticed the last breath of outside air I take before walking into the hospital for a shift, but tonight I reflexively inhale sharply like I’m about to try to swim the length of the pool underwater — an involuntary act that confesses my anxiety.
Upon arrival, my temp taken at the desk: 96.3. I’m permitted entry. I sign a form attesting I have not had a cough.
I walk by the charge nurse desk, she tells me we are conserving mask use — supplies are running low. Not many masks are left.
Today I will be in the COVID-pod. This area of the ER is cordoned off for only patients who potentially have the virus.
News of the young local ER doctor who has fallen critically ill with the virus has everyone saddened and scared. Stories about the Italian physician who has now died after continuing to treat patients once the hospital ran out of protective gear punctuate our conversations about when new N95 masks might be coming.
While I’m getting a medical history, my first patient tells me how she has been depressed since she lost her youngest son to cancer. As she puts her head in her hands and sobs, I instinctively move to put my hand on her shoulder, but then I stop, take a step back and tell her I’m sorry through my mask and face shield from a safe distance of 6 feet away. It’s uncomfortable and sterile; it feels phony.
The next patient looks ill. I’m worried, but the flu swab comes back positive. She has influenza. Whew. Influenza, while still serious, is good news today.
Next a woman arrives with EMS and her husband strolls in behind the stretcher. “Hey, we can’t have visitors in here, is he a patient?”
“Well, whatever she has I’ve got, so why can’t I be with her?” comes his response. We make attempts to tell him that we are trying to minimize staff exposure, so if you don’t need to be in the hospital, you shouldn’t be in the hospital. After a long conversation he relents. I talk to him about the importance of isolating himself at home. He tells me he still needs to go to the store: “Don’t worry, I’ll wear a mask.”
A 94-year-old is next. She comes from a nursing home where we know there are others infected. She has dementia and is coughing and the first thing she does as her nurse and I enter the room is pull off her mask and cough violently into our shared air. We both recoil. Her dementia is too advanced for her to follow instructions to keep her mask on.
Eventually, we are able to get the mask back in place, avoiding being coughed on further. We give her a mild sedative and now she can sleep. We shift her in bed to make her more comfortable. Given her age, it’s unlikely she will be alive by the end of the week.
Next is a 63-year-old woman who was failing outpatient treatment for what was thought to be bacterial pneumonia. One look at her and her chest x-ray and it’s obvious she has COVID-19, and it’s getting worse. I don’t think she’s going to do well.
My wife texts me. “We need daycare for the kids because I need to go to work.” The daycare she talked to today is wary because they know what I do. Nobody wants our kids.
Suddenly, commotion at the other end of the ED.
An intoxicated patient (who was brought to this area because he is coughing frequently) has assaulted a staff member. No serious injuries. Security is called but he has taken his mask off and is laughing loudly at the idea everyone fears him breathing on them.
With the help of security, we get him into his room. I talk to a police officer on the phone who is apologetic but says they cannot come to the hospital to arrest on a minor assault. He will be charged and hopefully be picked up on a warrant.
Five officers went out on quarantine last week and the city can’t have them coming in the hospital unless there is major need. The police need to stay functional, too.
Anxiety comes in occasional bursts: that scratch in my throat, that stiffness in my neck — the first signs of the onset of a viral syndrome? A fellow physician I’ve known for years broke down crying while we talked today.
A critical care colleague comes by and we discuss the number of ventilators we have. If the models are to be believed, it’s not going to be enough. Every doctor’s stomach turns at the thought of having to choose who gets a vent and who doesn’t based on the likelihood that they will survive. We all picture an elderly loved one.
“Maybe we will get more vents.” That’s what we all said about the tests two weeks ago. Yet South Korea has done 200,000 and we still aren’t able to widely test. No word on when tests are coming, just vague promises.
I see a 37-year-old woman. She had a test six days ago, it was sent to North Carolina to run and she just got it back today. Positive. Fortunately, she’s doing well. She will go home to quarantine.
I clean my face shield so I can re-use it. Scrub my hands, don new gown and gloves, keep my N95 mask on, and I’m on to the next patient.
This patient clearly has the disease. But she’s middle aged and doing okay. She’s sick enough to stay in the hospital but she declines. She has a special-needs daughter at home; she cannot leave her alone. There is no one else to take care of her. They will stay together and alone throughout this — “Whatever happens, happens,” she says.
Eventually the shift ends; I walk outside to the empty nighttime parking lot. A quick look around and I strip my clothes off and throw them in the bed of my truck, where they will remain for a day before I take them out to wash them.
Sitting in my underwear in my truck, I take a second to answer a few texts.
“Should we be having chicken pox parties with our friends’ kids since we’re all going to get this anyway?”
“No, no, no, no. Please don’t”
“If 12,000 Americans die from the flu annually, why is everyone panicking?”
“Because this could kill 1.5 million. Please believe the epidemiologists that have spent their lives doing this over your own thought experiments.”
Then I get ready to drive home; I take my first deep breath in many hours and look back at our hospital and wonder what this place will look like in two weeks.
All of us wonder. But all of us are here because there was a fire and we ran to it: the x-ray techs who shoot a chest film on every one of these patients, the nurses, the doctors, the respiratory therapists, all the staff.
We know some of us will catch this. Statistically, some of us will die from it. But we did what we signed up to do. We ran into the burning building because there are people in there we can save.
If you know someone who works on the front lines, please take a minute to send them a message this week and say thank you. We’re coming to work for you; please stay home for us.
First responders - police, fire, and EMS - are going to be particularly hard hit by this. I can see police forces and individual firehouses getting fairly well decimated.
Nearly half of infected on cruise ship asymptomatic at time of testing A US government report said 46.5 percent of the 712 people who tested positive for SARS-Cov-2 on board the Diamond Princess in February were asymptomatic at the time of testing.
The cruise ship accounted for the largest cluster of COVID-19 cases outside mainland China at the time, and the report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggested the high proportion of asymptomatic infections could partially explain the high attack rate on board cruise ships.
The CDC also said traces of the new coronavirus was found in the cabins of infected passengers 17 days after the rooms were vacated, suggesting the virus, known as SARS-Cov-2, can last longer on some surfaces than previously thought. However, the CDC said it is not clear if transmission occurred from the contaminated surfaces and called for more studies.
So, since we can pretty much use the cruise ships as a control, one takeaway is that for every sick person that gets tested and confirmed, there is at least one asymptomatic person out there still spreading it. Perhaps not quite that direct a relationship, but it probably isn't a bad starting point. So, "real" cases is (confirmed x2)?
I am quite thankful for all the control measures Gov. DeWine has put in place. Now hopefully he keeps them in place for an adequate amount of time. Might be months.
Akron-area health leaders say they are prepared for ‘tsunami’ of coronavirus cases coming By Betty Lin-Fisher Beacon Journal Posted at 10:12 AM Updated at 12:06 PM
The Akron area’s hospital leaders are working together to try to stay ahead of what they’re calling the tsunami or surge of cases coming associated with the coronavirus, also known as COVID-19.
“This is exponential. Today’s trickle is tomorrow’s river is the next day’s tsunami,” said Dr. Brian Harte, president of Cleveland Clinic Akron General during an early-Tuesday-morning virtual COVID-19 conference call hosted by the Greater Akron Chamber. The administrators, coordinating through their Akron Regional Hospital Board, have been in communication with each other and as well as colleagues across the state as the coronavirus spread has worsened.
Combining the visitor restrictions put into place — Cleveland Clinic and Summa Health have both banned visitors with some exceptions and Akron Children’s is allowing the same two visitors for a patient’s stay — with significantly decreasing or cancelling most non-essential appointments and procedures, “makes the hospital kind of an eerily quiet place,” said Harte, in a sentiment echoed by Summa CEO Dr. Cliff Deveny, Children’s CEO Grace Wakulchik and Western Reserve CEO Dr. Robert Kent.
“There’s a real tension, but a real determination,” Harte said.
Deveny predicted the surge of COVID-19 patients could be here by next week.
Summit County Public Health Commissioner Donna Skoda told the 250 or so attendees on the Zoom meeting call that she knows all of the measures put in place to have people stay at home are inconvenient, but necessary.
“If we’re thinking ‘we’ll close the businesses, close the schools...and we’ll open everything back up,’ I can assure you if we do that without adequate testing and resources, we will have more than a tsunami. It will be horrible and we will see a lot of deaths,” she said.
However, Skoda said “I do have hope. We do have a fabulous healthcare system. We have cooperation and collaboration and everything we need. We just have to really get the community to buy in that this is important to socially isolate, socially distance and try to do everything we can to reduce the spread.”
Kent of Western Reserve Hospital urged employers on the chamber call to increase their paid sick leave, saying it makes economic sense in the long run to pay someone to stay home instead of having that person come in and infect eight more employees, who then also get sick.
He also encouraged employers to tell employees to stay home if they are sick.
“Now if you have a fever, the best thing you can do is stay home,” Kent said, adding that it is opposite what people are ingrained to do, unless the patient is having trouble breathing or any other type of emergency.
Tom Smoot, director of the Summit County Emergency Management Agency, said one of the most critical needs now are donated personal protection equipment (PPE) such as surgical masks, N-95 masks, gloves, face shields, sterile swabs, medical gowns and thermometers from other healthcare providers such as veterinarians and dentists and construction companies for healthcare workers and first responders.
Call 330-926-5795 and the health department will direct donations to the drop-off site.
Skoda said the county was set to get its first shipment of PPE from the national stockpile today.
Wakulchik said the area hospitals are working on standards across the board, in conjunction with Centers for Disease Control guidelines, which are always changing, to have uniform use of PPEs at area hospitals.
She also urged people to stay home to protect themselves and health workers.
“Do not go out unless you have to go out to get gas or food,” she said. “Every time you go out and encounter someone who is a healthcare worker, there’s a potential to spread coronavirus. We really need all doctors and nurses here to manage this.”
That figure is very troubling yet much as I would have expected. It pretty much means that taking the temperature of people is fairly meaningless in determining if they have Covid 19.
That figure is very troubling yet much as I would have expected. It pretty much means that taking the temperature of people is fairly meaningless in determining if they have Covid 19.
Pretty much always was as soon as we knew the incubation period was up to two weeks and you could be contagious during that entire period. It was hopeful, but helpless, energy wasted.
We're now third in the world at almost 50k. About 20k behind Italy and 30k behind China...
How much longer until we're number 1? I give it a 4 days.
104,234 cases listed as 'recovered'. Of that, 0 recoveries are listed in the United States. Are we being extrat cautious in reporting people recovered?
ACME and now Giant Eagle grocery stores in the Northeast Ohio area have started installing these protective shields between the cashier and customer.
Glad to see this.
However, on the way home yesterday I stopped into a GetGo. Needed something inside. The 4 customers in line in front of me all used "bare fingers" on the "unprotected" credit card touchpad. I put what I was purchasing back and walked out. Surprised, on both ends(GE and customers) on something that was obviously "not kosher to do" so to speak.
There was nada, nein, none, no worries by the customers and/or employees.
Business as usual I guess. Maybe it's me, but,......???
Does anyone think that the shelter in place orders can have the opposite intended effect in areas of close quarters like large apartment complexes?
If the virus can survive on surfaces and in the air (through ventalation systems), doesn't mean that that the virus can infect the entire apartment complex at a faster rate?
ACME and now Giant Eagle grocery stores in the Northeast Ohio area have started installing these protective shields between the cashier and customer.
Glad to see this.
However, on the way home yesterday I stopped into a GetGo. Needed something inside. The 4 customers in line in front of me all used "bare fingers" on the "unprotected" credit card touchpad. I put what I was purchasing back and walked out. Surprised, on both ends(GE and customers) on something that was obviously "not kosher to do" so to speak.
There was nada, nein, none, no worries by the customers and/or employees.
Business as usual I guess. Maybe it's me, but,......???
Just out of curiosity, what were you expecting?
If they cover it, then those same hands are just touching to cover, and essentially, the same as being uncovered.
And the products you purchased were delivered and stocked by people who probably did not wear gloves as well.
Get Apple pay or Samsung Pay or some pay app on your phone and all you have to do it put it near the CC machine(assuming it is the correct type) and approve the purchase, without touching anything.
Otherwise, I think the onus is on us individually to take steps necessary when in public to protect ourselves.
I would rather touch a touchpad once, than to handle cash. (which could have tons of germs on it) It would make sense for a business to wipe the terminals down after each use, though. I went to my local Family Dollar .... right after the initial run on hand sanitizer, and the touch screen was filthy.
I keep a bottle of hand sanitizer in my car so that I can sanitize my hands after I have shopped anywhere.
If the Grocery stores close, you better hope you have a few guns and several hundred rounds on hand.
I would limit shopping days by month of birth.
It would cut down on crowds and allow the supply chain to work.
We don't really have a shortage. It's just that people are buying 2-3 weeks of goods, every week.
If I was in charge, I would mandate that store managers use good sense and put a stop to runs on products . Just make the announcement, 1 per customer, I don't care if you are already in line.
First responders - police, fire, and EMS - are going to be particularly hard hit by this. I can see police forces and individual firehouses getting fairly well decimated.
I'm actually predicting we'll be below the curve. You have to remember that first responders are exposed to innumerable diseases on a near daily basis due to the contacts we have with so many people. We tend to develop more resilient immune systems.
Stores don't get resupply every day of the week, and especially not of the month. Generally they receive certain deliveries a few times/week, (fresh goods, baked goods, etc) and they receive basic canned goods, paper supplies, and refrigerated and frozen good once or twice a week.
I would also ask what 2-3 weeks of groceries is, and how do you decide? Do you require that people bring in proof of family size?
Good post. You got me to reexamine my earlier thoughts. I like that. Now, if you will only think about the possibility of reexamining your thoughts about Baker and OL after some of my posts?
If the Grocery stores close, you better hope you have a few guns and several hundred rounds on hand.
I would limit shopping days by month of birth.
It would cut down on crowds and allow the supply chain to work.
We don't really have a shortage. It's just that people are buying 2-3 weeks of goods, every week.
If I was in charge, I would mandate that store managers use good sense and put a stop to runs on products . Just make the announcement, 1 per customer, I don't care if you are already in line.
If you don't like it, don't gat any.
Put a $50-$75 dollar limit on purchases and use loyalty cards to limit purchases to one a day.
Small save-a-lot store here put a limit on most things last week. They were the only store with a selection of fresh meat on Monday. The owner/manager is supervising all day and told me there is a hundred people waiting for them to open every morning because they restock nightly.
2 Krogers, Walmart, Meijer, Giant Eagle, and Aldi all looked like the old rationing pics we would see out of Russia during the cold war.
If the Grocery stores close, you better hope you have a few guns and several hundred rounds on hand.
I would limit shopping days by month of birth.
It would cut down on crowds and allow the supply chain to work.
We don't really have a shortage. It's just that people are buying 2-3 weeks of goods, every week.
If I was in charge, I would mandate that store managers use good sense and put a stop to runs on products . Just make the announcement, 1 per customer, I don't care if you are already in line.
If you don't like it, don't gat any.
You're already way behind on the control measures.
Stores in Northeast Ohio have already limited the quantities, 2 loaves of bread, 1 carton of eggs, 1 bundle of TP.
The grocery stores are not going to close. The panic run has already happened in most places. Pretty calm now.
If the Grocery stores close, you better hope you have a few guns and several hundred rounds on hand.
I would limit shopping days by month of birth.
It would cut down on crowds and allow the supply chain to work.
We don't really have a shortage. It's just that people are buying 2-3 weeks of goods, every week.
If I was in charge, I would mandate that store managers use good sense and put a stop to runs on products . Just make the announcement, 1 per customer, I don't care if you are already in line.
If you don't like it, don't gat any.
You're already way behind on the control measures.
Stores in Northeast Ohio have already limited the quantities, 2 loaves of bread, 1 carton of eggs, 1 bundle of TP.
The grocery stores are not going to close. The panic run has already happened in most places. Pretty calm now.
Same with ammo, I finally found 9mm yesterday but you were limited to 2 boxes and they were only quantites of 20. The prices were severly marked up as well. Supply and demand.
My wife's hospital did their last elective surgeries today. Of course, they were swamped.
The Anesthesia Group said they are going to let some of the CRNA's go and cut the salaries.
Same with my brother's anesthesia group. Had meetings with all the CRNAs and reduced everyone to 2-3 days a week with unpaid furloughs. A number of his friends lost their jobs with other groups.
Giving the critical need for ICU nurses, some of the CRNAs up there are transitioning back to ICU nurses during the time of need. Some of the recruiters have ICU nursing jobs listed anywhere from $6700/wk - $7100/wk. They're that desperate for help.
Nearly half of infected on cruise ship asymptomatic at time of testing A US government report said 46.5 percent of the 712 people who tested positive for SARS-Cov-2 on board the Diamond Princess in February were asymptomatic at the time of testing.
The cruise ship accounted for the largest cluster of COVID-19 cases outside mainland China at the time, and the report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggested the high proportion of asymptomatic infections could partially explain the high attack rate on board cruise ships.
The CDC also said traces of the new coronavirus was found in the cabins of infected passengers 17 days after the rooms were vacated, suggesting the virus, known as SARS-Cov-2, can last longer on some surfaces than previously thought. However, the CDC said it is not clear if transmission occurred from the contaminated surfaces and called for more studies.
So, since we can pretty much use the cruise ships as a control, one takeaway is that for every sick person that gets tested and confirmed, there is at least one asymptomatic person out there still spreading it. Perhaps not quite that direct a relationship, but it probably isn't a bad starting point. So, "real" cases is (confirmed x2)?
At least x2. Probably closer to 5x or 10x.
We still are WAY behind in testing for COVID-19.
If you look at the contagion factor of the flu relative to COVID-19, COVID-19 is 1.69 times more infectious.
If you take the CDC estimates for the flu and extrapolate based on yearly cases in the US YTD.
45,000,000 flu cases a year.
123,287 flu cases a day.
83 days elapsed YTD in 2020.
83 X 123,287 x 1.69 = 17,293,467 potential COVID-19 cases in the US as of today.
It is more than likely a lot lower than that since the virus was only recently discovered but it also could have been around a lot longer than we think.
So... as many as 17,293,467 cases could be present in the US.
If we go with the x2 estimate, then there are likely ~100,000 cases in the US.
The good thing is that this means the actual death rate is likely lower no matter how you slice it, the question is how much lower is it than we think right now?
The # of deaths in the US is probably the most accurate number we have in tracking COVID-19.
The death rate would need to be 10-20x lower to be comparable to the death rate of the flu.
So if there are truly 750,000 cases in the US right now and not ~50,000 then we might be in a lot better shape than we think.
My best guess is that there are actually around 200,000 cases and the true death rate for COVID-19 is lower than we think.
Really tough to know what data is accurate at this point, so it's tough to model effectively.
My wife's hospital did their last elective surgeries today. Of course, they were swamped.
The Anesthesia Group said they are going to let some of the CRNA's go and cut the salaries.
Same with my brother's anesthesia group. Had meetings with all the CRNAs and reduced everyone to 2-3 days a week with unpaid furloughs. A number of his friends lost their jobs with other groups.
Giving the critical need for ICU nurses, some of the CRNAs up there are transitioning back to ICU nurses during the time of need. Some of the recruiters have ICU nursing jobs listed anywhere from $6700/wk - $7100/wk. They're that desperate for help.
Hope everything works out for your wife.
Thank you. In return, I hope it all works out for your brother, as well.
Btw...........Thanks for all the information you have posted to keep us informed. I appreciate it.
I've been thinking about this type of thing quite a bit.
We keep seeing the confirmed cases go up, as we test more and more people. That increase in confirmed cases should be expected.
But we also here that many, many people have it and show no symptoms, or symptoms light enough they don't seek medical attention.
Say there are 4 times as many people that have it - that puts it at well over 200,000. Again, some 80% of the confirmed cases are mild.
The death number is probably very accurate.
I still wonder if my daughter didn't have it back in mid December, and me in early/mid Jan. The only 'known' symptom either of us didn't have was fever. But, we never took our temps, either. Maybe not, who knows.
But, knowing that the number of confirmed cases is well below the actual number, and knowing the death total, can we assume it's not as deadly as once thought?
First responders - police, fire, and EMS - are going to be particularly hard hit by this. I can see police forces and individual firehouses getting fairly well decimated.
I'm actually predicting we'll be below the curve. You have to remember that first responders are exposed to innumerable diseases on a near daily basis due to the contacts we have with so many people. We tend to develop more resilient immune systems.
Don’t think it would be typical because of the population densities, but NYC police have 211 confirmed cases and 2,774 out sick-about 8% of their force
Stores don't get resupply every day of the week, and especially not of the month. Generally they receive certain deliveries a few times/week, (fresh goods, baked goods, etc) and they receive basic canned goods, paper supplies, and refrigerated and frozen good once or twice a week.
I would also ask what 2-3 weeks of groceries is, and how do you decide? Do you require that people bring in proof of family size?
There are no really easy answers.
Depends on volume of stores as per # of days delivered per week. Worked in the supermarket industry for 46+ years.
Lg supermarket/high volume perishable dept deliveries(produce, deli, meat, dairy, etc) are generally 5 days a week(Mon's, Tues's, Wed's OR Th's, Fri's, and Sat's) with no perishables on Sun's and either Weds or Thurs. Frozen foods generally 5 days as well. These are your solid, 20-22 pallet/skid cubed semi's.
Some lower/mid volume stores would be generally 4 days per week for perishables and 3 days for grocery/non-perishables.
Grocery/non-perishables (paper towels, TP, jars/canned items, etc) generally delivered at later-day/early eve in time for grocery night crew shifts.
Shhhh.....If you read between the lines, don't do perishable shopping on Mon's or Wed/Thurs's. If the perishable dept mgr writes tight, good orders your perishable items came in a min 2 days before. No doubt still good quality/ edible. As far as perishables, an empty cooler before deliveries is a happy cooler and translates to "a fresher product" on the sales floor. The fresher the product the "LONGER LEGS" it has so to speak.
Stores don't get resupply every day of the week, and especially not of the month. Generally they receive certain deliveries a few times/week, (fresh goods, baked goods, etc) and they receive basic canned goods, paper supplies, and refrigerated and frozen good once or twice a week.
I would also ask what 2-3 weeks of groceries is, and how do you decide? Do you require that people bring in proof of family size?
You sure know a lot about TP.
You should change your name to TPDawg.
There are no really easy answers.
Depends on volume of stores as per # of days delivered per week. Worked in the supermarket industry for 46+ years.
Lg supermarket/high volume perishable dept deliveries(produce, deli, meat, dairy, etc) are generally 5 days a week(Mon's, Tues's, Wed's OR Th's, Fri's, and Sat's) with no perishables on Sun's and either Weds or Thurs. Frozen foods generally 5 days as well. These are your solid, 20-22 pallet/skid cubed semi's.
Some lower/mid volume stores would be generally 4 days per week for perishables and 3 days for grocery/non-perishables.
Grocery/non-perishables (paper towels, TP, jars/canned items, etc) generally delivered at later-day/early eve in time for grocery night crew shifts.
Shhhh.....If you read between the lines, don't do perishable shopping on Mon's or Wed/Thurs's. If the perishable dept mgr writes tight, good orders your perishable items came in a min 2 days before. No doubt still good quality/ edible. As far as perishables, an empty cooler before deliveries is a happy cooler and translates to "a fresher product" on the sales floor. The fresher the product the "LONGER LEGS" it has so to speak.
My first real paycheck (check stub/taxes, etc.) was from a Mom&Pop grocery: Harris IGA
I was a lowly stock clerk/checkout bagger, and only worked for Claude Harris about 18 months. In that time, I came to appreciate just how complex a system exists behind the scenes. The casual shopper has no idea what must happen to ensure that head of lettuce is in the case when they stop in for provisions.
*thanks for the inside 411 on produce buying days, btw-
My first real paycheck (check stub/taxes, etc.) was from a Mom&Pop grocery: Harris IGA
I was a lowly stock clerk/checkout bagger, and only worked for Claude Harris about 18 months. In that time, I came to appreciate just how complex a system exists behind the scenes. The casual shopper has no idea what must happen to ensure that head of lettuce is in the case when they stop in for provisions.
*thanks for the inside 411 on produce buying days, btw-
I was just commenting to my wife the other day when I left the local Food Lion about how I wished there was a manager handy when I checked out.
It was about the 3rd time that week I had gone there for something and very little of the meat and canned goods had been replenished, certainly no paper products. But the employees were stocking what they could and still trying to provide a higher level of service that social distancing would still allow.
I was super impressed with how their employees conducted themselves. Doubly so considering how many of the are so young.
I really believe that a lot of that initial panic was brought under control because of how well grocery employees did their jobs. they weren't panicking, they weren't doing anything that would give customers the sense there was a reason to freak out.
I don't know. I was just really impressed with such a high level of professionalism during such times.
My first real paycheck (check stub/taxes, etc.) was from a Mom&Pop grocery: Harris IGA
I was a lowly stock clerk/checkout bagger, and only worked for Claude Harris about 18 months. In that time, I came to appreciate just how complex a system exists behind the scenes. The casual shopper has no idea what must happen to ensure that head of lettuce is in the case when they stop in for provisions.
*thanks for the inside 411 on produce buying days, btw-
Just a shot in the dark. Claude Harris? Any relationship to what eventually became "Harris Teeter Supermarkets"? I know they're big just up north of you.
Btw....
Those "Fresher Produce Buying Days" do come with a catch. Moreso/especially if grown and shipped from California/west coast.
Scenario/riddle for ya......
Two California Mixers(many diff types vegetables on the one load/each truck) leave from the same grower/shipper for Ohio, but 2hrs apart. They drive the speed limit all the way to Cleveland.
The one that left last from Cali gets to the same destination/warehouse 2 hrs before the other. How is that possible you ask?
Answer..... Well, the driver of the one leaving earlier, mid trip, stopped off for a few hours at one of the many "houses of Ill repute" that are widespread across the central plains of this great country we live in.
Next time your favorite Produce department is out of Calif cantaloupes before, lets say, a day or 3 before the 4th of July you'll think of this thread.
You will. I know you will.
No joke. True stuff. Happens quite a bit/moreso than one would think.
Service industry employees are First Responders in their own way.
'Everyday Heroes' are stepping up.
Sometimes, they wear uniforms. Sometimes, they wear aprons.
Absolutely. Grocery store workers and takeout restaraunt employees must violate the close contact precautions in order to perform their jobs. They really are heroes.
Get Apple pay or Samsung Pay or some pay app on your phone and all you have to do it put it near the CC machine(assuming it is the correct type) and approve the purchase, without touching anything.
That must be what that darlng young lady was trying to use to buy three items in the express checkout line. I mean we only stood in line for 30 FREAKING MINUTES with everybody packing in closer and closer together while she screwed around with her phone forever. (INsert word for female dog)
Get Apple pay or Samsung Pay or some pay app on your phone and all you have to do it put it near the CC machine(assuming it is the correct type) and approve the purchase, without touching anything.
That must be what that darlng young lady was trying to use to buy three items in the express checkout line. I mean we only stood in line for 30 FREAKING MINUTES with everybody packing in closer and closer together while she screwed around with her phone forever. (INsert word for female dog)
Yep, the tech works on the phone or fob or whatever other device, but the card readers at most checkouts are antiquated junk, so everybody is just hit an miss with e-wallets, apple pay, etc. Heck half of the checkout lines have readers that struggle to take credit cards with chips.
Get Apple pay or Samsung Pay or some pay app on your phone and all you have to do it put it near the CC machine(assuming it is the correct type) and approve the purchase, without touching anything.
That must be what that darlng young lady was trying to use to buy three items in the express checkout line. I mean we only stood in line for 30 FREAKING MINUTES with everybody packing in closer and closer together while she screwed around with her phone forever. (INsert word for female dog)
Yeah, rule #1, be ready, like the old days of writing a check at the store..have the checkbook out and partially filled out, don't wait til everything is bagged and the total given before you start looking for your checkbook.
I don't use it often, but occasionally if I don't have time to hit the ATM first I will, and I start up the pay app when I'm next in line. if it fails the first time, I grab out by CC, pay, and move on.
Italy: 1,144 cases per 1M population Spain: 1,028 per 1M
Switzerland: 1,217 per 1M USA: 167 per 1M
We are absolutely still on the upswing of this, but Switzerland is heading for the hurt locker. Spain had 443 new deaths. 80 new deaths in the Netherlands
Vatican City is up to 4 cases... it won't be long before the Pope's got the Rona.
I think the book is written, now.... allow them into port and off the ship, but move all of them immediately into a quarantine area and begin testing and monitoring.
It's not like they're the first one to face this in 2020, so there really isn't much to debate over.
Nearly half of New York City's coronavirus cases found in adults under 45 10:28 a.m. A plurality of COVID-19 cases in New York City are among those aged 18 to 44, but severity rates tend to follow global trends when it comes to age and underlying conditions, data from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene reveals.
Of the 15,597 confirmed as of Tuesday afternoon, 7,094, or 46 percent, were in patients below the 45. In that age group, 9 percent of people with the novel coronavirus have been hospitalized, and there have been five deaths.
All told, the data suggests the city is in line with other countries like Italy, which has reported that the majority of patients experiencing severe cases of COVID-19 are in older age groups, though that certainly doesn't mean younger people aren't at risk. In New York, more than one-fifth of fatalities have occurred in the 45 to 64 range.
I think Spain waited a while to take the more drastic measures, too, so they just might escalate beyond Italy. Spain's population is only about 75% that of Italy, too.
Coronavirus: Ohio will use dorms, hotels as hospital beds
COLUMBUS —
Lacking enough hospital beds, particularly in intensive care units, Ohio will be forced to use dormitories, hotels and other facilities to house patients as the coronavirus crisis ramps up, the DeWine administration said Tuesday.
Ohio’s 236 hospitals are operating at about 60% capacity since elective procedures were stopped but they’ll still have to expand ICU capability by 50%, said Dr. Amy Acton, director of the Ohio Department of Health. Ohio has roughly 3,600 ICU beds.
“We will be having to build additional beds, just like you’re seeing in places like New York,” she said.
Gov. Mike DeWine added “We clearly do not have enough capacity as it exists today. That should surprise anyone.” The first preference is to use existing facilities for expanded hospital bed capacity, he said.
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases grew to 564 across 49 counties; 145 hospitalizations, including 62 in the ICU; and eight deaths. Patients range in age from infant to 95 years old.
Dr. Acton reported that 16% of the confirmed cases are health care workers, 25.7% of the cases are hospitalized and 11% are in ICUs.
Ohio’s numbers are lagging because of lower testing capacity. Ohio is on a steep upward trajectory similar to what is being seen in Italy and New York City, Dr. Acton said.
DeWine has moved aggressively to slow the coronavirus spread, closing schools, bars, restaurants, polling places, and non-essential businesses. He has warned Ohioans to be ready for the long-haul.
But President Donald Trump has said Americans to return to work, saying in a tweet on Tuesday: “The cure cannot be worse by far than the problem.”
DeWine said he is aligned with the president.
DeWine said he shares President Trump’s frustration and urge to get this over as fast as possible but the governor added, “The truth is that protecting people and protecting the economy are not mutually exclusive. In fact, one depends upon the other. The fact is we save our economy by first saving lives and we have to do it in that order.”
The short-term consequences of slowing the economy now to stop coronavirus far outweigh the “long-term economic meltdown from a deadly virus that is left unchecked. We cannot leave this unchecked,” he said.
State lawmakers are scheduled to return to Columbus on Wednesday to vote on emergency measures related to Ohio’s response to the coronavirus crisis, including waiving state mandated standardized testing requirements for K-12 schools, extending the state income tax filing deadline and establishing a new primary election date.
State Sen. Matt Huffman, R-Lima, introduced a bill Tuesday to extend mail-in voting to April 28.
The Ohio House announced extraordinary protocols to prevent the possible spread of coronavirus among lawmakers, journalists and others.
House members feeling unwell but insisting on attending will be quarantined in a members only lounge and the clerk will record their votes through the window. Members are directed to take their temperatures before attending session.
Lawmakers will be seated at least six-feet apart on the House floor and in the gallery, which is normally reserved for the public, and other lawmakers will be staged in satellite rooms in the Statehouse. Only essential staff will attend.
The press and public will be barred from attending the session — a rule currently being contested by the Ohio Legislative Correspondents Association.
Four members of the Georgia Senate tested positive for coronavirus and the entire state legislature there was urged to self-isolate.
U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, R-Cincinnati, authored a column in the Washington Post calling for the U.S. Senate to change its rules to allow for remote voting during a national crisis.
Well, Lord knows the dorms are empty. But, there's no equipment in them. No way to hook up oxygen, other than portable tanks.
Probably not enough doctors and nurses to do much.
But, on a side note, when we were checking out the U.of Toledo's new medical campus, in the nursing building (which is fairly new - don't know how many years) they made mention of their "real life e.r. rooms/labs, and how each of the 10 rooms or so was set up and equipped to be basically mini e.r.'s. - basically all the equipment you'd find in most e.r.'s.
I think there will be a large portion of hospitalizations that may not require all of that equipment. At least that's the only conclusion I can come to. That or they may be able to adapt the outlets to cater to the equipment. I'm not sure.
I think it's because we have large population densities that are separated by far less dense populations. Hot spots continue to spike in areas where they weren't before. The latest reports I've seen now see Louisiana as the next hot spot.
I think it's because we have large population densities that are separated by far less dense populations. Hot spots continue to spike in areas where they weren't before. The latest reports I've seen now see Louisiana as the next hot spot.
Yes. That's probably why there was a delay in exponential spread here relative to Europe.
It's all about population density. Given how long the virus can survive on surfaces and even in the air... the shelter in place orders make me nervous.
Look at New York, they have 50% of all the US cases.
Everyone in NYC lives in an apartment. They all still have to use the same elevators, stairs, grocery stores.
Where I think you and I disagree is that I feel it's those largely populated areas will see the spread of the virus first. In the end it will be pretty much the same percentages everywhere. People travel and goods are shipped. As such I don't see any real safe zone in the end.
I have a suggestion for what to do to help the economy keep working during this time of shutdown.
Get necessary, outside maintenance done in this country. Get roads and bridges fixed. Start work on upgrading the electrical grid. It seems to me that these are things that can be done at a reasonable "social distance" on the job, and being outside should provide a bit more help, as the air is not held in a confined area. There have to be things that could be done right now, that would employ people, with minimal risk.
I have a suggestion for what to do to help the economy keep working during this time of shutdown.
Get necessary, outside maintenance done in this country. Get roads and bridges fixed. Start work on upgrading the electrical grid. It seems to me that these are things that can be done at a reasonable "social distance" on the job, and being outside should provide a bit more help, as the air is not held in a confined area. There have to be things that could be done right now, that would employ people, with minimal risk.
We are still working on all of our jobsites except some commercial projects in Pa. All hospital jobs (especially 2 that have to do with patient rooms), roadways, power grid, water and waste treatment, oil and gas...etc they are all working-
We have daily instruction on changes from the CDC and we have to really be on our game but we are still working and we are still getting opportunities to bid other work. Of course, we are doing it from home and all meetings are by phone/go to and any visits to any project site has to be cleared
DeWine has been such a rockstar through all of this.
You listen to Dewine and his team and they do a very good job-I try to catch some or all every day. I also listen to Gov. Cuomo and I think his team is really up against it and also telling the people what they need to know and laying out the facts and doing a great job.
Then you watch the WH team and it is just a kiss the bosses ass followed with about 30 minutes of a rally with no real meaningful info other than a little from the medical people
Here's why the coronavirus may be killing more men than women. The US should take note
By Katie Polglase, Gianluca Mezzofiore and Max Foster, CNN
Updated 5:32 PM ET, Tue March 24, 2020
(CNN)Smoking, drinking, general poor health: Researchers say these are some of the factors that could explain why more men seem to be dying from coronavirus than women.
In countries such as Italy, men represent nearly 60% of people who tested positive for the virus and more than 70% of those who have died, according to the country's National Health Institute (ISS). Even in countries like South Korea, where the proportion of women who have tested positive for the virus is higher than that of men, about 54% of the reported deaths are among men.
But while health officials are starting to take note of these staggering numbers, the United States is not releasing the basic nationwide data that is crucial to understanding who is most vulnerable to the virus, according to a CNN analysis. Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House's coronavirus response coordinator, said at a White House press briefing on Friday: "From Italy we're seeing another concerning trend. That the mortality in males seems to be twice in every age group of females."
Regarding this data on Italy, Birx said in an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer: "Just having the knowledge of that helps us in the United States so we can be very specific in talking to the American people about who to protect and how to protect them." CNN has reached out to Birx for additional comment.
When CNN asked the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for data split by sex for US cases of coronavirus and deaths by coronavirus, known as sex-disaggregated data, the CDC did not respond. Comprehensive data about those who have gotten sick could help inform more effective responses to the crisis. But public health researchers say that when governments such as the United States either don't collect, or don't publish their data, it's impossible for experts to gain an accurate sense of what's going on. Data divided by sex In collaboration with Global Health 50/50, a research institute examining gender inequality in global health, CNN analyzed the publicly available data from 20 countries with the highest number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 at the time of data collection -- March 20.
The aim was to see why men seem to be dying more than women. From these 20 countries, only six provided data broken down by sex for both confirmed cases and deaths - China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy and South Korea. A further seven provided such data for the number of confirmed cases only. No sex-disaggregated data could be located for the remaining countries. The research has been submitted for publication and has not yet been peer-reviewed.
The data is not comprehensive in all cases: For example, the figures for China only cover the period through the end of February, well before community spread approached zero. And no reliable data exists on the proportion of tests administered to men versus women in any country. Furthermore, there are undoubtedly cases of the virus that are not reflected in the national data for any country.
But across the countries for which we have data - spanning nearly a quarter of the world's population - we found that men were 50% more likely than women to die after being diagnosed with Covid-19.
While necessarily partial and incomplete, the results highlight what public health experts have been warning for some time, theorizing that it is not only biology but also gendered behaviors -- the different ways in which men and women conduct their lives -- which may play a significant role in the different mortality rate for respiratory diseases.
"When we look at the data what we're seeing is that in every country with sex-disaggregated data ... there is between a 10% and 90% higher rate of mortality amongst people diagnosed with Covid if they are men compared to if they are women," says Sarah Hawkes, professor of global public health at University College London (UCL) and co-director of Global Health 50/50.
"If I was designing clinical guidelines, I would very much want to understand why some people seem to have a much higher risk of mortality than others. It might for example lead to a difference in the way in which we administer clinical guidelines amongst people who have pre-existing health conditions that lead to risk of death along with those with chronic lung disease, who are more likely to be men." Hawkes also noted that reporting sex-disaggregated data on epidemics has been requested by the World Health Organization since 2007, but many countries fail to do so.
As the US data was not publicly available on a national level, CNN went state by state to request the data, but many did not release it. Even states such as New York and California, where the outbreak is particularly severe, did not provide CNN with the requested data, despite several attempts. In some cases, CNN located the data in press releases from local counties, care homes and hospitals. "I'm pretty sure that in a country with the sophistication of the health system and the surveillance system that the United States has, that it's not that there's an absence of data," says Hawkes. "I am fairly sure that down to the smallest districts across the US, people have the data. What we've not seeing happening it seems is a collation, a collection of that data at state and national level with the speed which one might hope to see from the perspective of global health research." Historically, coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS tended to affect men disproportionately, according to Dr. Luis Ostrosky-Zeichner, infectious disease specialist at McGovern Medical School at UTHealth in Texas. During previous epidemics, males were reported to have a worse clinical outcome due to SARS in Hong Kong. They also had a higher risk of dying from MERS, in a study conducted in Saudi Arabia and South Korea. From an evolutionary perspective, some research suggests that women have a stronger immune response against viral infections than men because they spend part of their lives with a foreign body inside -- their offspring -- thus granting them a survival advantage.
"It might have to do with hormonal changes," Ostrosky-Zeichner said. "There is actual research in animals that has shown there may be a biological basis for the sort of increasing susceptibility in the male gender and not only that but also an increased severity and response to the virus." Pre-existing conditions Initial reports of people with severe Covid-19 disease have found that they were likely to have underlying health conditions such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease and chronic lung disease, according to Global Health 50/50. These conditions tend to be more common among men in the six countries analyzed as well as globally, the institute said, possibly because of riskier lifestyle choices. "If Covid-19 is following the same kind of patterns that we see across a range of other diseases, what we know is that men tend to have across their life courses ... greater risks of exposure to behaviors that will lead to adverse health outcomes in the long term," says Hawkes. "So in most countries, for example, what we see is that men smoke tobacco and drink alcohol at far greater rates than women do," she said. Smoking is a clear example of how such behavior differs between men and women. China has the largest smoking population in the world, with around 316 million adult smokers. But while over 50% of Chinese men smoke, less than 3% of women do, according to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. In Italy, 7 million men smoke as opposed to the 4.5 million women, according to 2020 data released by the National Health Institute (ISS) The institute reported that, upon admission to hospital, "a third more Covid-19-positive smokers had a more serious clinical situation than non-smokers." For these smokers, the risk of needing intensive care and mechanical ventilation is "more than double.
"If you've got a group of men who have been smokers in their lifetime and then get it [Covid-19] and now have chronic lung disease as a result of the smoking, and then get exposed to corona infection, it seems as if they are more likely to suffer from severe corona infection, and be at risk of death," Hawkes said.
Other studies have shown that Italian men also have higher rates of hypertension than age-matched females, while Chinese men tend to have higher blood pressure and are more likely to have Type 2 diabetes.
All these factors contribute to possible complications if they get the coronavirus, researchers say. But the lack of data on how many men died of novel coronavirus as opposed to women, Global Health 50/50 researchers say, feels like a missed opportunity for governments to implement public health policies that target certain groups of people who are significantly more vulnerable than the rest of the population.
"What Covid-19 reveals is a classic case of failing to use data for decision making. For every patient there is a record of their sex. But that data is not collated and analyzed with a gender lens," Dr. Kent Buse, co-founder of GH5050 and chief of strategic policy directions at UNAIDS told CNN. The same view is shared by Arthur Caplan, a bioethicist at New York University,
"All data establishing risk, ability to recover, infectivity is crucial in a pandemic," he told CNN. "Data ought to be collected, transparent as to methods, and disseminated promptly."
For as long as this data is not made publicly available, it cannot be analyzed by outside experts, like Global Health 50/50, for clues on why men seem to be dying more from Covid-19.
Coronavirus in Ohio: Patients exhibiting new symptoms NEWS by: NBC4 Staff
Posted: Mar 24, 2020 / 04:23 PM EDT / Updated: Mar 25, 2020 / 12:24 PM EDT
COLUMBUS (WCMH) – According to Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton, patients who contract the COVID-19 coronavirus are showing new symptoms.
Acton said some of the data, particularly out of Cuyahoga County, show patients exhibiting GI upset, more fatigue, and sometimes not showing a fever, in addition to the previous flu-like symptoms.
“My best advice to everyone is if you don’t feel well in any way, stay home and make that call,” she said.
Previously, symptoms of viral infection were thought to be limited to those similar to the flu – fever, tiredness, and a dry cough, with difficulty breathing in more severe cases. Patients continue to show those symptoms as well.
Previously, symptoms of viral infection were thought to be limited to those similar to the flu – fever, tiredness, and a dry cough, with difficulty breathing in more severe cases. Patients continue to show those symptoms as well.
A small study from China published in the American Journal of Gastroenterology found that forms of GI upset – not previously considered to be a common coronavirus symptom – were the “chief complaint” in almost half of the COVID-19 cases studied, CNN reports. Symptoms ranged from loss of appetite to diarrhea and vomiting.
The study involved 204 confirmed COVID-19 patients in Hubei Province, China.
Researchers warned, “if clinicians solely monitor for respiratory symptoms to establish case definitions for COVID-19, they may miss cases initially presenting with extra-pulmonary symptoms, or the disease may not be diagnosed later until respiratory symptoms emerge.”
They went on to suggest that missing early GI symptoms could have contributed to the early spread of the virus among health care workers in China.
I think a lot of folks dismissed the virus in its early stages. I think some folks even made light of the possible dangers. I think reality has set-in. I think that most folks now recognize that the virus is a huge concern.
Thus, I think it is time to move beyond the scary articles and concentrate on the following:
--What is actually being done to combat the virus?
--What new advances have we made in regards to treatments and vaccines?
--How can we best protect ourselves and others?
--Strategies on how to survive if things get really ugly.
I know a lot of those things are already being discussed. I just think that the world finally knows this blank is real and there isn't much of a need to scare people to their senses anymore.
I think the focus should be on how we can win this battle. I believe almost all of us know we're in a war. How can we win that war?
I think a lot of folks dismissed the virus in its early stages. I think some folks even made light of the possible dangers. I think reality has set-in. I think that most folks now recognize that the virus is a huge concern.
Thus, I think it is time to move beyond the scary articles and concentrate on the following:
--What is actually being done to combat the virus?
--What new advances have we made in regards to treatments and vaccines?
--How can we best protect ourselves and others?
--Strategies on how to survive if things get really ugly.
I know a lot of those things are already being discussed. I just think that the world finally knows this blank is real and there isn't much of a need to scare people to their senses anymore.
I think the focus should be on how we can win this battle. I believe almost all of us know we're in a war. How can we win that war?
I'm hoping for a breakthrough, but it just seems like the things you mentioned rarely are the focal point of any conversation on tv, or even on social media.
What I am hoping for is in the next few weeks, we see this curve flatten. All that may mean is that we have to keep doing what we're doing, but at least it would be some positive news, and it could boost the morale of people knowing there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
I just want to be through the worst part of this, and have it in the rear view mirrior. This whole thing just feels like a nightmare, and I really hope when this whole thing is over, that maybe the world can be a little more united instead of constantly being so complicated
I think a lot of folks dismissed the virus in its early stages. I think some folks even made light of the possible dangers. I think reality has set-in. I think that most folks now recognize that the virus is a huge concern.
IMO, I think some of the early dismissal was due to the media making a big deal out of these things in the past. SARS, Swine flu, etc. Like the boy who cried wolf.
I've been working from home for 2 weeks and haven't been out much. I've been hearing a lot of reports of the number of people that are out doing their normal things. Still feels like a decent amount of people still don't care.
One thing I would like to suggest to those of us who happen to attend church services regularly, even if our churches are closed, the bills still have to be paid ..... mortgage, utilities, insurance, and so on. Why not take a moment and make your offering by mail to the church, to help tide your house of worship over through this crisis?
On a side note, got a call from my stepmom last night. My dad is 83 and has been in a home for 6 years with dementia. He had a fever of just under 102 last night. They hurried to give him Tylenol, were going to swab him today, give him x-rays and move him to a private room. Fever spiked overnight, gave him more Tylenol at 3 am and his fever is down now. I knew when i got the call at 9:30 at night it was a oh crap moment
I was thinking of this as I prepare to go to the hospital ...... (blood work, so nobody worry, or cheer) but we should try to keep in touch with our friends and family more often than we may have been doing. Isolation is harder on some than on others. I was outside yesterday, and a lady walked by, and I said hello from across the street, and she said that being cooped up inside is really driving her nuts. Let's make sure than no one we love, or just care about, becomes a different kind of COVID-19 statistic. I think that would affect older people more than younger people, who are more used to texting, and such.
My granddaughter went to the ER last night for Gall Bladder pain, but they would not let her in until she went through the COVID - 19 Tent? Why expose a healthy 19 year old (Besides her Gall Bladder) to people they think could be infected with the Coronavirus? She was afraid to go through the tent so she came home in pain, her Dr. told her today it was her Gall Bladder
This is a war': NYC doctors describe fight against coronavirus as cases surge
'This is a war': NYC doctors describe fight against coronavirus as cases surge “Our hospital has never, ever, ever seen anything like this,” one doctor said. Image: Patients wearing masks wait to be tested for coronavirus at Elmhurst Hospital in Queens on March 25, 2020.
Overfilled waiting rooms packed with people who are contagious. Patients waiting six hours to be seen. Others on stretchers waiting 50 to 60 hours for a bed. Doctors desperately trying to get more ventilators. That is what it’s like to be on the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic at a public hospital in New York City, Dr. Rikki Lane, an emergency room doctor at the Elmhurst Hospital Center in Queens, said.
“Our hospital has never, ever, ever seen anything like this,” said Lane, who has worked for more than 20 years at Elmhurst, a public hospital with 545 beds.
Lane said the emergency department has been “overwhelmed” for about three weeks and the hospital is in desperate need of help as the coronavirus spreads across the city, which has become a fast-growing epicenter of the virus with more than 21,000 known cases and 281 deaths as of Thursday.
The hospital has spent weeks now expanding the areas within the facility that it has been using to house the coronavirus patients, but the ever rising rush of patients has been “inconceivable,” she said.
“Whatever space we create is immediately filled and overfilled,” she said.
New York City at the center of the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. Doctors at New York City hospitals working in the fight against the coronavirus described a desperate battle to care for patients as cases continue to surge, with the peak of the disease still weeks away.
The hospital needs critical help with “everything along the supply chain,” including supplies, staff, ventilators and bed space, Lane said.
“The need grows exponentially every single day,” she said.
In the worst day that Elmhurst has seen so far, the virus claimed 13 lives in one day, which Lane said was "unprecedented."
"All of this is unheard of," she said.
The doctor said she has feared New York City could become as overwhelmed as Italy, where the virus quickly spread to more than 75,000 known cases and more people have died than in China.
“I know actual true horrors are coming,” she said.
“It’s just like a tidal wave,” another Elmhurst Hospital doctor, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told THE CITY, an independent, nonprofit news organization. “The only beds we’ve been able to free up are people who have died.”
Gov. Andrew Cuomo has said New York may need up to 140,000 hospital beds as the virus reaches its peak and has urged the federal government to send supplies, including tens of thousands of ventilators, to the state.
This week, hundreds of thousands of supplies were distributed across the state for immediate needs, including a million masks to New York City, but that will only last so long, Cuomo said.
The federal government was sending 2,000 ventilators to New York City, but the city is asking for 15,000, Mayor Bill de Blasio has said.
In Brooklyn, a doctor who works at a large hospital system said there had been critical shortages of swabs and masks.
The doctor, who asked to remain anonymous out of fear of retaliation, said hospital workers themselves are at high risk and she was scared of getting sick and infecting her family.
"I am scared to hug my own children," she said.
What is a ventilator? The 'critical resource' that is in short supply "We need space and beds. This is a war. I'm going into war and trying not to get killed," she said. "We are trying to go to work and not to die."
The city is also adding a new makeshift morgue ahead of the virus’ surge.
“I know the morgues push a really strong emotional button, obviously. We’re all humans,” de Blasio said. “It’s a very troubling thing to see, and it makes it very immediate, very visceral. It’s going to be very, very painful.”
Anthony Almojera, the vice president of the New York City Fire Department's EMS officers union, said EMS services had been receiving record calls.
"Last night we saw over 6,500 calls, the night before 6,400," he said. "The last week and a half we’ve been at 5,000 or more every day. That's more than 9/11. In the last two days, we’ve set records."
On Wednesday, Elmhurst hospital received about two dozen doctors and nurses from other hospitals, and a number of ventilators that help critically ill patients with their breathing, City Councilmember Francisco Moya (D-Queens), told THE CITY.
“It’s very accurate to say it’s overrun. I’ve spoken to workers at the hospital and you can hear it in their voice — it’s a sign of desperation that they need help,” said Moya, who was born at the hospital, used to work there as business development director and now represents the district it’s in.
Christopher Miller, a NYC Health + Hospitals, spokesperson told THE CITY: “Elmhurst is at the center of this crisis, and it’s the number one priority of our public hospital system right now.”
NYC Health + Hospitals, the city’s public hospital system, said in a statement to NBC News it was “working day and night to ensure that all our patients receive the care they need.”
There were more than 1,000 ventilators across the system and NYC Health + Hospitals was receiving an additional 400 from the city’s office of Emergency Management, it said.
The hospital system said it had "adequate supplies at the moment but are fully cognizant of the nationwide scarcity of resources" and "reports of lack of personal protective equipment and ventilators in our system are false."
“The public health system is working with all local, state and federal agencies to ensure that resources are strategically allocated throughout to accommodate the surge caused by COVID-19,” the hospital system said. “We are committed to our mission to care for all New Yorkers regardless of immigration status and ability to pay, and are focused on keeping all our patients and staff safe.”
Btw, a shout-out to all the nurses on these boards. The backbone of our medical society. THANK YOU! I know what yins go thru. My wife is an RN. Lately she's been a 5a to 9-10p RN.
Btw, a shout-out to all the nurses on these boards. The backbone of our medical society. THANK YOU! I know what yins go thru. My wife is an RN. Lately she's been a 5a to 9-10p RN.
Same with our RN daughter.
I read that headhunters are looking for ICU nurses somewhere in the northeast. Posted pay was like 7400 to 8100 a week
A good story here in Chattanooga, I won't bother posting. The Baylor School, a local high end prep school has a medical lab for interested students, run by 3 Doctors with degrees in microbiology of some sort. This is a high school I am talking about.
They have the equipment to test up to 300 swabs a day and give a 4 hour result.
They won't swab there, just test. To start they are looking at 65 a day with current staff, but by bringing in the necessary technicians that local hospitals will supply, 300 a day. Our county government has just contracted with them to provide the service.
Go Baylor School and staff. Oh, to talk a little football, people from all over the country and world are sent to Baylor. It costs about $50,000 per year for a boarding student, and there are a lot of them. John Hannah, HOF LT, played his prep ball at Baylor. He was a boarding student.
I saw this today live. These press conferences are the best thing I've seen on TV since this crisis started. Raw data, distilled into info average Joes and Janes like us can understand.
When I saw that comparison chart, my heart leaped about 3 feet.
It's a comfort to have competent leadership at the top, giving good advice and a cohesive, fact-based message. Ohio is setting the standard for all other states. Couldn't be more proud.
Clem, did you notice the part when the reporters were asking questions and the one guy asked for clarification on Dr. Acton's 6000-8000 cases comment and she said 6000-8000 new case per day and the reporter said "A DAY?!?" and there was a moment of dead silence?
I was listening to an interview today of a health care professional who was part of the 2014 W.H. Pandemic counsel, and a player in the the tabletop exercises that informed the incoming Trump admin about infectious diseases.
His predix: every single one of us will lose someone we know before this pandemic has run its course.
I wondered how long it would be until my fb feed began its body count. It began today. A colleague just lost her cousin to COVID-19.
I've known Shan since college- an absolute angel. My heart goes out to her.
Here's an article about what people working on inpatient psychiatric units are facing. It is quite the challenge...units of 10-30 patients sharing common areas with some of them coughing and unable to exercise appropriate precautions and hygiene care. It is literally impossible to maintain social spacing while treating the patients and performing therapy. I can't think of another scenario where it is acceptable for groups of people this size to assemble in close quarters during this pandemic.
What did Dr. Acton say in regard to the 6-8,000 cases per day?
That's the number of cases we can expect per day in Ohio when this is expected to peak around the end of April, first part of May.
The models show we would have spiked at 40,000 cases per day without all the control measures.
She also said, 40% - 70% of Ohioans will get infected based on the data. The models will become more and more accurate as additional numbers continue to come in.
What did Dr. Acton say in regard to the 6-8,000 cases per day?
That's the number of cases we can expect per day in Ohio when this is expected to peak around the end of April, first part of May.
The models show we would have spiked at 40,000 cases per day without all the control measures.
She also said, 40% - 70% of Ohioans will get infected based on the data. The models will become more and more accurate as additional numbers continue to come in.
end of April early May? Thats 5-6 weeks.
If this thing incubates within 2 weeks, most people that contract can overcome it in 5-7 days, it can only live without a host on surfaces up to 7 days, then how could it still spread at that rate 4 weeks from now when the majority of us are practicing SD and good cleaning habits?
What did Dr. Acton say in regard to the 6-8,000 cases per day?
That's the number of cases we can expect per day in Ohio when this is expected to peak around the end of April, first part of May.
The models show we would have spiked at 40,000 cases per day without all the control measures.
She also said, 40% - 70% of Ohioans will get infected based on the data. The models will become more and more accurate as additional numbers continue to come in.
end of April early May? Thats 5-6 weeks.
If this thing incubates within 2 weeks, most people that contract can overcome it in 5-7 days, it can only live without a host on surfaces up to 7 days, then how could it still spread at that rate 4 weeks from now when the majority of us are practicing SD and good cleaning habits?
There is something they are not telling us.
They didn't spell out that idiots are being reckless and careless and endangering others. Today more people will be infected, then tomorrow, and so on. There are still plenty of people out and about. Young people thinking they are invincible, people going to church, people working, people shopping for supplies. That's how this keeps going. Unless we can somehow put everyone in there own bubble for 3 weeks it will continue until we have a herd immunity.
There are still PLENTY of vectors for it to spread... grocery stores, gas stations, liquor stores, all the people having friends over for dinners, hardware stores, etc...
In the end, there is no scenario where we get out of this without hitting herd immunity which means it's Oprah Giveaway Day with Sars-CoV-2... you get an infection, and you get an infection, and YOU get an infection!!
The only thing that matters is preventing the collapse of the healthcare system in the process. Whether that is all social distancing or a combination of that plus new treatments to mitigate the more serious effects of the COVID-19 disease.... the thing is, this virus is here to stay. There is no eradicating it. The only question is how long will it take before it is simply declared endemic; not that it matters. It already is endemic. Now we just have to ease ourselves toward that golden goblet of herd immunity.
The virus is being discribed as having "gain of function" properties by experts in the field.
This term is only ever used for offensive bioweapons. It is basically SARS with added gain of function properties, which is basically saying that it is airborne and can be easily dispersed among the population. IE; the function.
What did Dr. Acton say in regard to the 6-8,000 cases per day?
That's the number of cases we can expect per day in Ohio when this is expected to peak around the end of April, first part of May.
The models show we would have spiked at 40,000 cases per day without all the control measures.
She also said, 40% - 70% of Ohioans will get infected based on the data. The models will become more and more accurate as additional numbers continue to come in.
So does this count the 100,000 that she guesstimated that was already infected in the press conference 2 weeks ago? She loves using big numbers , just sayin.
If this thing incubates within 2 weeks, most people that contract can overcome it in 5-7 days, it can only live without a host on surfaces up to 7 days, then how could it still spread at that rate 4 weeks from now when the majority of us are practicing SD and good cleaning habits?
There is something they are not telling us.
There certainly is. I know what they "tell us", but when you look at what they're not telling us it's far more troublesome.....
Diamond Princess had traces of coronavirus 17 days after ship emptied: CDC
Ok.. I'm getting prepared for this. I'm square in the middle of the high risk group. I'm 61, I had a heart attack last summer, I have 3 stents. I work at Kroger. I handle waaaay to much crap, money, credit cards etc.. It's only a matter of time before I miss the bug that does me in.
I fired up my legal program on my puter last night and wrote up my will. I've made a decision not to be scared anymore if God decides that enough for me, who am I to argue. I'm having the will notarized tmr.
If this thing kills me, I'll be pished off that I didn't see a playoff game after buying season tickets since 1999
Yup... treat your workday like you're the cleanup crew at a house of ill repute. Careful what you touch, how you touch, where you touch.... always be conscientious of what you're doing; as if you were working with lots of sharp machinery.
I am preaching my 5th funeral in 7 days and there are restrictions such as family only and the funeral director and the Pastor... Just asking those of you who believe in prayer to please pray for me and those who attend these funerals ... God bless
I thought all funerals and weddings were postponed.
Hope all goes well.... remember to keep your distance, even while trying to comfort people. No hug or friendly gesture is worth becoming infected - or becoming a carrier that infects others.
As of earlier today, the US alone is over 100,000 cases, and globally we are nearly to 600k, already (just shy of it at 590k).
I feel for you saint, I really do. For many reasons.
I have become basically unemployed myself, yet for a self employed person, there is still an uncertainty about applying for unemployment.
And I shouldn't say "basically unemployed". I should say I have NO work scheduled.
But, people like you are out in public. Dr's, nurses, the gas station employees handling money, the few retail store employees that are still open, etc. It's just a messed up state right now. (not 'state' as in Ohio, state as in the position we're all in. Some of us, a lot of us, can't work from home.)
Sorry I disagree. I believe a hug is worth it. We were all born and we will all die, But to ignore those who are suffering by staying away and not giving them a hug is just wrong IMO
I am preaching my 5th funeral in 7 days and there are restrictions such as family only and the funeral director and the Pastor... Just asking those of you who believe in prayer to please pray for me and those who attend these funerals ... God bless
Will do pastor. May God bless those who mourn, and heal their broken hearts. May He keep them all safe, and unaffected by any diseases currently afflicting this country. May He also keep safe those who do His will in service.
That's cool, but I will disagree and reiterate. You go on with that, but I don't know where they've been, but more importantly, I don't know what *I've* been around.... and if I'm going to be responsible, that means I conduct myself as if I already am infected and don't want to expose anyone else.
Safety now - not just for yourself, but for others; consolation and condolences later.
They shut my county down. You can only go outside between the hours of 6-7. This is getting ridiculous.
That's bizarre. Do they really want everyone going out in that 1hr window? That would defeat the purpose of quaranteening.
yeah that just seems like a really bad idea. Stores packed, high possibility of traffic incidents because of people hurrying, even going out for a walk is dangerous because so many people will be out.
We're still sheltering in place in Illinois. Both my wife and I have essential jobs, she has to be at work, while my team is rotating 1 in the building every few days while the others work from home.
This sucks, and I think one of the toughest pills to swallow is that things may not even start to get back to normal until August.
I really hope these numbers start to slow but right now they just aren't.
There are so many little things that could have been done early on that could have slowed this thing. There were idiots here out at bars the weekend before st patrick's day. There was no shelter in place, but the cat was out of the bag that this thing was here, and they STILL went out like complete morons. I hate people so much.
There are so many off-shoots to this pandemic. My son texted that he had to let a couple dozen of his employees go. He's pretty depressed about having to do that, but the higher-ups gave him no choice.
Just think about how many lives are being adversely affected by the virus even if they don't have the actual virus. Hundreds of years from now, folks will be talking about COVID-19.
There are so many off-shoots to this pandemic. My son texted that he had to let a couple dozen of his employees go. He's pretty depressed about having to do that, but the higher-ups gave him no choice.
Just think about how many lives are being adversely affected by the virus even if they don't have the actual virus. Hundreds of years from now, folks will be talking about COVID-19.
Absolutely. The ripple effects will be tremendous and we haven't even started to see big numbers.
On a related note, my step-dad has laid off 23 of his 31 employees due to a sharp decline in business. Additionally, my best buddy's father is 99% certain he's going to shut down his company (food equipment distributor) and just retire rather than take out loans to try and keep it going and risk his own personal financial future. This will put 41 employees out of work.
There are so many off-shoots to this pandemic. My son texted that he had to let a couple dozen of his employees go. He's pretty depressed about having to do that, but the higher-ups gave him no choice.
Just think about how many lives are being adversely affected by the virus even if they don't have the actual virus. Hundreds of years from now, folks will be talking about COVID-19.
A bunch of us - including me - got laid off on Tuesday because there is absolutely no revenue coming in.
It sucks but it’s hard to complain when so many are losing their livelihoods, at least short term.
For some, it could be long term.
I live in a smallish town in Nova Scotia - the number of cases here is minuscule but who knows for how long - went for a walk downtown today and everything is shut down. Gas stations are desolate, what’s scary for me is that my wife works in a big grocery store. She isn’t afraid but I am.
This is tough. Think about how many of these people have small children to take care of. Also, how many small businesses will be forced to close their doors?
Sorry to hear that, lamp. Best of luck to you and your wife. My wife is in health care, so I know how you feel about yours. I haven't sold an art piece all week and the tutoring thing is moving very slowly, so my income is way down. I'm not complaining. It's just that almost everyone is now feeling the effects of the virus. It's like we are at war.
Food banks will be overwhelmed soon, taxes won’t be paid, charities are suffering, musicians are getting hit, people aren’t working, aren’t spending money and aren’t buying gas. I live a couple blocks from a gas station/convenience store. It’s always busy, or at least it was.
Not anymore.
This is impacting almost every sector, everywhere. It’s all happened very fast, and it’s going to be far-reaching.
Thanks vers, but we will be okay. We have safety nets if it goes that far. I’d rather be independent but.... I worry about my wife, though, if it gets worse around here.
This is tough. Think about how many of these people have small children to take care of. Also, how many small businesses will be forced to close their doors?
Here's just a snapshot....from a NYT article.
Restaurant analysts and operators have been quoting an estimate that 75 percent of the independent restaurants that have been closed to protect Americans from the coronavirus won’t make it. The National Restaurant Association estimated this week that the entire industry would lose $225 billion in the coming three months and shed five to seven million employees.
I'm still working, and my job isn't practicing social distancing. I don't want to say where or what I do, but other departments have been split up and are practicing those things but mine isn't.
I'm fairly upset about it, my drinking has accelerated quite a bit. I know there is a number to report this stuff, but I'm not going to do it. It's probably like calling OSHA on your employer, and I don't want to lose my job or sound ungrateful that I'm still working.
Yes my job is considered essential, even though there's no reason for us to be there. Fortunately my department is small, but we are violating more than 10 in one space when we're all in the break room in the morning.
I helped build the newer prisons in London on the LCI side. I wouldn't want to be trapped in one of those with an outbreak like this, I can tell you that much. I have friends and family that work out their I'd hate to see it go through those prisons.
US FDA clears new coronavirus rapid test The United States Food and Drug Administration has cleared a new rapid test from Abbott Laboratories, which the company says can detect the coronavirus in about five minutes.
Medical device maker Abbott announced the emergency clearance of its cartridge-based test on Friday night. The company says that its test delivers a negative result in 13 minutes when the virus is not detected.
India quarantines 15,000 after virus kills 'super-spreader' guru
Religious leader dies of COVID-19 after preaching in over dozen villages in Punjab state, prompting strict restrictions.
At least 15,000 people who may have caught the new coronavirus from a Sikh religious leader are under strict quarantine in northern India after the man died of COVID-19.
The 70-year-old guru, Baldev Singh, had returned from a trip to Europe's virus epicentre Italy and Germany before he went preaching in more than a dozen villages in Punjab state.
Nineteen people who were in contact with the preacher have already tested positive for the new virus, said Vinay Bublani, a local deputy police commissioner.
Results are being awaited from more than 200 other people, who were tested.
The case has sparked one of India's most serious alerts related to the pandemic, with special food deliveries made to each household under even tighter restrictions than the strict 21-day nationwide stay-at-home order imposed by the government.
"The first of these 15 villages was sealed on March 18, and we think there are 15,000 to 20,000 people in the sealed villages," said Gaurav Jain, a senior magistrate for the district of Banga, where Singh lived.
"There are medical teams on standby and regular monitoring," he told AFP news agency on Friday.
'Shadow of death' The guru and his two associates - who have also tested positive - ignored self-isolation orders on their return from Europe, and were on their preaching tour until Singh fell ill and died.
The case has stunned India and a popular Punjabi singer based in Canada, Sidhu Moose Wala, released a song about Singh that has been viewed on YouTube more than 2.3 million times in less than two days.
"I passed on the disease ... roaming around the village like a shadow of death," say the lyrics to the song, which Punjab's police chief Dinkar Gupta has encouraged people to listen to as a warning.
With 918 confirmed coronavirus cases and 20 deaths, India's toll is lower than other countries afflicted by the pandemic, but experts say many infections have not been detected due to a lack of testing.
The South Asian nation of some 1.3 billion people reported its first coronavirus case on January 30 but in recent weeks the number of infections has climbed rapidly.
This article is about my friend's wedding. It's in german, but if you use chrome it will auto translate. There's a lot more to this story but this focuses on his wife's journey here right before we closed our border with Europe.
There's a memory for a lifetime. That must have been nerve wracking. Congrats to them.
My son had to postpone his wedding for this summer. It was in August, but it was a destination wedding in Colorado (his fiance is from California...they met in college and are graduating this year). The logistics and uncertainty have made it extremely uncomfortable to expect everyone involved with the wedding and the guests to commit to the travel and expenses. Fortunately, the venue is allowing the substantial downpayment to apply to the new date next summer. Unfortunately, the whiteout on the invitations and announcements isn't working out too well.
We're in the same boat for my son's graduation party. Its suppose to be memorial day weekend. Doubt it happens. Don't want to send out invites because of it.
US FDA clears new coronavirus rapid test The United States Food and Drug Administration has cleared a new rapid test from Abbott Laboratories, which the company says can detect the coronavirus in about five minutes.
Medical device maker Abbott announced the emergency clearance of its cartridge-based test on Friday night. The company says that its test delivers a negative result in 13 minutes when the virus is not detected.
If it doesn't come back positive in 6 minutes, wouldn't that mean it's negative?
I have a niece graduating college and a nephew graduating high school. The dual-party was going to be in June, now it will maybe be August or September. Maybe?
Mercy Health builds device to sanitize personal protective equipment for first responders
TOLEDO (WTVG) - It's called the Covidnator. If you haven't heard of it, don't worry, it didn't even exist a week ago. Now, it's a piece of equipment vital to the fight against COVID-19.
If a piece of equipment is suspected of having come into contact with someone or some area with COVID-19, that equipment is placed inside the machine, which uses UV rays to disinfect it.
With personal protective equipment in short supply, it's important for first responders to have access to something that can extend the life of their gear.
"We have smaller departments that may have one box of masks, and that's all they'd need in normal times. We're not in normal times," Dr. Nicholas Sauber, Regional EMS Director, said. "The question is, what are we going to do with these. If we were going to throw them away like normal times, like single patient contact, we're going to be out in a week."
The process takes about five minutes, after which the gear is ready to take back out in the field. That includes equipment like goggles, masks, and gloves, which experts believe are some of the most susceptible to contamination.
Any first responders making a run to Mercy Health Saint Vincent's Medical Center can use it.
"It's something we have to do," Dr. Stephen Zohn said. "We have a crisis. This is folks in the E.D., the EMS, they're our family. We've got to protect our own."
The technology is pretty unprecedented and more sanitary than traditional washing, and it's so new -- and people are working so fluidly -- that Dr. Sauber said some of the pieces that make up the machine were found on Amazon.
And it's all to the keep people safe and stretch resources as far as possible.
I don't think he is suggesting that the burials themselves were being postponed, but the services where people gather in mass. Not sure though.
True IDK how many people would go along with that, the one I did the other day there was almost a fight at the door because a friend of the Mother of the deceased was not going to be denied … But she was, just saying how people react to death
Not knocking the tech but heard just a few days ago that they had considered UV sterilization and found that it broke down the efficacy of the N95 masks. So I'm not sure about this, yet I'm hopeful.
This will be interesting. In NW Ohio, the hospital organization is akin to the 2 party political system, with the same type of underhanded competition. In this case though, I think they will work together to do what's best for the population...unlike what the federal government is doing. I know a lot of people with both Promedica and Mercy Health (the 2 major players) and there are intelligent and compassionate people making decisions for them. We just need to keep the executives at a distance, lol.
I was listening to an interview today of a health care professional who was part of the 2014 W.H. Pandemic counsel, and a player in the the tabletop exercises that informed the incoming Trump admin about infectious diseases.
His predix: every single one of us will lose someone we know before this pandemic has run its course.
I wondered how long it would be until my fb feed began its body count. It began today. A colleague just lost her cousin to COVID-19.
I've known Shan since college- an absolute angel. My heart goes out to her.
Food banks will be overwhelmed soon, taxes won’t be paid, charities are suffering, musicians are getting hit, people aren’t working, aren’t spending money and aren’t buying gas. I live a couple blocks from a gas station/convenience store. It’s always busy, or at least it was.
Not anymore.
This is impacting almost every sector, everywhere. It’s all happened very fast, and it’s going to be far-reaching.
I swear that everyone at my work, my girlfriends work and many other people I know had this or something really really similar in late December or early January.
I personally think almost a million people have already been infected by the virus. If you look at how many flu cases are expected by March 28th and then multiply by the contagion factor of COVID-19 you get over one million (including Dec 2019).
Same here. Weekend after New Years we had two family members with very severe respiratory issues. Fortunately both are in their early twenties and recovered but it was a three week ordeal. Since I've talked to about 4 others who absolutely swear they had it. It didn't just show up after its Chinese rampage. People were flying to and from China long before it all started and it had to be here already.
I am surprised that no one has come up with some sort of device to do a "full body surface disinfecting" of a person entering the hospital .. where they would walk in, be disinfected, and then enter the rest of the way. (spray, UV, or other means)
The current means of checking for infection .... at least at my local hospital, is to ask the person coming in to disinfect his hands, and then asking them if they have a cough ... etc. However, is a person can be asymptomatic, even while highly communicable, then everyone should be treated as a potential carrier.
I could be way off-base, but I'm really interested in us finding a drug that can help us fight off the virus.
Testing is great, but I think it's at the point where so many of us are going to get it, that it's more important to treat the virus than anything else.
Of course, finding a vaccine is even more important, but I feel that would be a longer way off.
Again, I could be totally wrong in my thinking and I will listen to why I am wrong.
The current means of checking for infection .... at least at my local hospital, is to ask the person coming in to disinfect his hands, and then asking them if they have a cough ... etc. However, is a person can be asymptomatic, even while highly communicable, then everyone should be treated as a potential carrier.
Every time I go into a nursing home to see a client I have my temperature taken and get asked the same few questions about where I’ve traveled, and if I’ve had contact with anyone with the virus. By the time I would run a temperature I’d have already been communicable for days or even weeks. No I haven’t traveled to China. I answer the last question as honestly as possible... “not that I’m aware”. It’s all really a practice of futility. An attempt at control over something we have little control over. I hate that I may be a vector to our society’s most vulnerable.... but it’s my job. It’s scary and a strain on my personal ethics.
Food banks will be overwhelmed soon, taxes won’t be paid, charities are suffering, musicians are getting hit, people aren’t working, aren’t spending money and aren’t buying gas. I live a couple blocks from a gas station/convenience store. It’s always busy, or at least it was.
Not anymore.
This is impacting almost every sector, everywhere. It’s all happened very fast, and it’s going to be far-reaching.
I swear that everyone at my work, my girlfriends work and many other people I know had this or something really really similar in late December or early January.
I personally think almost a million people have already been infected by the virus. If you look at how many flu cases are expected by March 28th and then multiply by the contagion factor of COVID-19 you get over one million (including Dec 2019).
I had that and it hospitalized me twice. BUT it was definitely influenza type A as the test were positive.
I could be way off-base, but I'm really interested in us finding a drug that can help us fight off the virus.
Testing is great, but I think it's at the point where so many of us are going to get it, that it's more important to treat the virus than anything else.
Of course, finding a vaccine is even more important, but I feel that would be a longer way off.
Again, I could be totally wrong in my thinking and I will listen to why I am wrong.
Since I have a history of pneumonia and having COPD, I usually take a heavy dose of vitamin and zinc tabs through the flu season. It generally helps to ward them off and or make them less severe. Yet I haven't heard any talk about anything like that with this virus. Nada. And I swear that the zinc nasal sprays kill colds and flu when you use them as soon as symptoms start, but again NADA. So I not only don't see a med to help fight it, a med to help prevent contraction, or a medical vaccine being a factor during this outbreak but I don't see medical professionals talking about anything but treating symptoms. And apparently eastern medicine has no answers either.
We need treatments/medications that prevent or mitigate the most severe effects, only one of which is the pneumonia. There are also issues with kidney damage and something else, along with permanent scarring of the lungs.
I go through the same thing every morning. I shake my head as every day when I walk in the hospital, and every day that everyone else walks in, they can go through that same screening and have the virus, and can be passing it on to any number of people. That kind of screening isn’t very helpful. Short of having an instant test for everyone, every single day, which is never going to happen, everyone is a ticking time bomb walking through that healthcare facility.
1. Dedicate a huge amount of time/funds to treatments that can keep people alive once they have COVID-19.
2. Dedicate almost just as much amount of time/funds to developing a viable vaccine.
3. Dedicate time to developing more testing.
*Note: I hate to add this and I really don't know where to place it, but I'm almost certain that a lot of time and resources have to still be dedicated to educating folks about the dangers of the virus and the importance of social distancing. It galls me to admit that we have so many ignorant folks, but that is the reality of the situation.
Two coronavirus patients in New York City are off ventilators and out of intensive care after they received an experimental drug to treat HIV and breast cancer.
As the skyrocketing number of cases stretches city hospitals to the limit, doctors are racing to find out which drugs on the market or in development might help in fighting the infection.
The drug, leronlimab, is delivered by injection twice in the abdomen, the Daily Mail reported.
Of seven critically ill patients who received the drug in New York, two were removed from ventilators and two showed significant improvement.
Doctors right now don’t know quite how leronlimab works, but studies suggest it calms the overly aggressive immune response — known as a cytokine storm — that frequently leads to lung inflammation, pneumonia and potentially death.
CytoDyn, the drug’s manufacturer, could get FDA approval in six weeks if leronlimab continues to show promise. No drugs currently have FDA approval to treat the novel coronavirus.
Sorry I disagree. I believe a hug is worth it. We were all born and we will all die, But to ignore those who are suffering by staying away and not giving them a hug is just wrong IMO
I hear you and I feel you, but we can't, bro. If we do, we risk infecting so many people that our hospitals won't be able to keep up. Then, even more will die/suffer. And it will have been because we satisfied a need to physically express our empathy. For the time being, we simply can't. I know it sounds counterintuitive, but it's the absolute most caring and humane thing each of us can do right now.
This invisible thing is humbling an entire species at the moment.
We aren't smart. We aren't prepared. We aren't invulnerable. We aren't superior. We aren't safe.
Beneath the surface of everything I do, there exists this 'low hum of dread.' We aren't made to endure long periods of isolation. We are social creatures.
This is a war like none we've ever had. In the 1940's, we could at least stand 3 ft apart in our respective spots on the factory floor, while we built the tools that defeated Hitler and Tojo.
Two coronavirus patients in New York City are off ventilators and out of intensive care after they received an experimental drug to treat HIV and breast cancer.
As the skyrocketing number of cases stretches city hospitals to the limit, doctors are racing to find out which drugs on the market or in development might help in fighting the infection.
The drug, leronlimab, is delivered by injection twice in the abdomen, the Daily Mail reported.
Of seven critically ill patients who received the drug in New York, two were removed from ventilators and two showed significant improvement.
Doctors right now don’t know quite how leronlimab works, but studies suggest it calms the overly aggressive immune response — known as a cytokine storm — that frequently leads to lung inflammation, pneumonia and potentially death.
CytoDyn, the drug’s manufacturer, could get FDA approval in six weeks if leronlimab continues to show promise. No drugs currently have FDA approval to treat the novel coronavirus.
Call me skeptical, but I have not seen a single reputable news agency report this news.
This goes back to the Daily Mail report which is hardly a credible news agency.
It seems to stem back to a press release by CytoDyn to investors.
Two coronavirus patients in New York City are off ventilators and out of intensive care after they received an experimental drug to treat HIV and breast cancer.
As the skyrocketing number of cases stretches city hospitals to the limit, doctors are racing to find out which drugs on the market or in development might help in fighting the infection.
The drug, leronlimab, is delivered by injection twice in the abdomen, the Daily Mail reported.
Of seven critically ill patients who received the drug in New York, two were removed from ventilators and two showed significant improvement.
Doctors right now don’t know quite how leronlimab works, but studies suggest it calms the overly aggressive immune response — known as a cytokine storm — that frequently leads to lung inflammation, pneumonia and potentially death.
CytoDyn, the drug’s manufacturer, could get FDA approval in six weeks if leronlimab continues to show promise. No drugs currently have FDA approval to treat the novel coronavirus.
Call me skeptical, but I have not seen a single reputable news agency report this news.
This goes back to the Daily Mail report which is hardly a credible news agency.
It seems to stem back to a press release by CytoDyn to investors.
Somewhat related here: When I've stopped at the Dollar Store over the last couple of weeks for cat food, I'd swing by the shelves that normally would have t.p. - not that we needed any, just wanted to see. Yup, sure enough, they were empty.
Earlier this week I read somewhere that vitamin C has been used to treat/help with covid19.....so, 2 days ago, getting cat food again, I went down the vitamin aisle.
Sure enough, NO vitamin c in the store. Now, I don't know about pharmacies around here, or grocery stores - whether they have any or not......
And, just this week, my brother from Denver sent a picture of a grocery store's beer aisle. Empty, other than the Corona section. (it was not his picture, it was not where he shops, it was probably a fake picture - but, I did laugh at that.)
And now you're seeing a shortage of hydroxychloroquine at pharmacies and the impact it's having on people that actually rely on the drug to treat diseases such as Lupus.
One thing I don't understand about this is that it's a prescription drug, right? The only way for there to be shortages is if pharmacists are hoarding them or illegally distributing them to people they want to have it or doctors are writing phoney prescriptions.
That's pathetic.
There's supposed to be millions and millions of these pills, and I believe they are easy to manufacture. Can't we have some friggin decency for once? I swear this chit brings out the worst in people.
I was in a “disagreement” with a female friend ... basically, her sister went on vacation to Miami last week because tickets/rooms were cheap (of course).
Anyways, her sister has been feeling ill over the past few days since returning.
To me, that behavior is totally selfish and deserves chastisement
Food banks will be overwhelmed soon, taxes won’t be paid, charities are suffering, musicians are getting hit, people aren’t working, aren’t spending money and aren’t buying gas. I live a couple blocks from a gas station/convenience store. It’s always busy, or at least it was.
Not anymore.
This is impacting almost every sector, everywhere. It’s all happened very fast, and it’s going to be far-reaching.
I swear that everyone at my work, my girlfriends work and many other people I know had this or something really really similar in late December or early January.
I personally think almost a million people have already been infected by the virus. If you look at how many flu cases are expected by March 28th and then multiply by the contagion factor of COVID-19 you get over one million (including Dec 2019).
I had that and it hospitalized me twice. BUT it was definitely influenza type A as the test were positive.
My buddy and I came back from our annual Superbowl gambling trip to Vegas with something, mine I noticed Monday morning and hit drugstore for some OTC meds. It never got too bad for me and was gone by Friday, I think because I attacked it quick.
My buddy on the other hand, waited and ended up hitting Urgent Care by Thursday, which they said he had the flu, gave him some meds and let him go.
I know what you were talking about. Without a known treatment, it is a hit or miss with current drugs. We now have this report on that drug. There are reports some malaria drugs have worked, but it's too soon to call them a known treatment.
Spitballing, why wasn’t gojo and purell, Akron all hands on deck. This should be quasi war time.
Gojo is the maker of Purell. They’re not separate companies. Also, they have been ramping up production for for nearly a month now and have been hiring a number of people. It’s still not enough to meet demands right now.
Distilleries are turning to make hand sanitizer. For example, you can purchase a ticket to buy hand sanitizer by the gallon from Western Reserve Distillery in Lakewood. They have converted at least 1/2 their distillery in to making hand sanitizer based off of the WHO’s formula #1. Ohio is offering a tax incentive to distilleries that do this.
I was in a “disagreement” with a female friend ... basically, her sister went on vacation to Miami last week because tickets/rooms were cheap (of course).
Anyways, her sister has been feeling ill over the past few days since returning.
To me, that behavior is totally selfish and deserves chastisement
Last week? Anybody that would walk into a Covid 19 incubator (i.e. plane cabin) twice, for recreational purposes and with the knowledge available last week....should be charged with a crime.
Seems like nobody wants to make public the cases by state, or caases by large city anymore. In my opinion, I expected higher numbers by now. Really hard to find the cases in New York state, past March 26th, and other numbers per large city or state by state.
I was in a “disagreement” with a female friend ... basically, her sister went on vacation to Miami last week because tickets/rooms were cheap (of course).
Anyways, her sister has been feeling ill over the past few days since returning.
To me, that behavior is totally selfish and deserves chastisement
Seems like nobody wants to make public the cases by state, or caases by large city anymore. In my opinion, I expected higher numbers by now. Really hard to find the cases in New York state, past March 26th, and other numbers per large city or state by state.
When you look at them together and do a little math based on populations, you can see that it's getting pretty ugly in some places. We can also see why Germany is perhaps faring a bit better and not nearly as strained. Ditto for South Korea.
The following is from Irene Ken physician, whose daughter is an Asst. Prof in infectious diseases at Johns Hopkins University, quite informative.
* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (RNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.
* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.
* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam).
By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.
* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.
* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.
* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.
* NO BACTERICIDE OR ANTIBIOTIC SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; antibodies cannot kill what is not alive.
* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only -between 3 hours (fabric and porous), -4 hours (copper and wood) -24 hours (cardboard), - 42 hours (metal) and -72 hours (plastic).
But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.
* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars.
They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.
* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin.
* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.
* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.
* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.
* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.
* You have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.
* You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.
* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.
There are nearly no countries left without a shutdown in place. I'm 99% certain that the only countries left on Earth without a confirmed case of this virus simply haven't tested (Western Sahara, South Sudan, Botswana, Yemen).
The next 14 days are going to likely start to get kinda ugly most everywhere.
The escalation from 1,000 cases goes pretty rapidly; the exponential growth is about to be really visible. We currently have 20 states with 1,000 or more cases and an additional 5 that are at 800+ (running about four days behind).
New York & New Jersey combined are less than half the population of Italy, and are already at a combined 74,000 cases and not even remotely slowing down or showing any signs of peaking, gaining new cases at about twice the rate of Italy.
Sobering. Too long to post, a look at plausible scenarios based on current information modeling and expert analysis of our current situation. Multiple scenarios are reviewed, none look good.
Kinda surprised about that, too, but at this point I could see them resuming and just skipping summer break to get back on track.
My kids still have schoolwork, so going into summer wouldn't make much sense...
My senior would probably just quit school if they went into summer lol. I kid, but not really. He's already has enough credits to graduate. He is likely joining the military.
I saw that article shared on Facespace several days ago, and it is indeed sobering.
The notion of several periods of resuming/lockdown is, I think, why some areas may not be on lockdown for much longer. If an area doesn't have many cases, you may as well let the natives out for a bit. Yes, it will then spread faster, but it also spreads almost as fast when people don't adhere 100% to social distancing and lockdown rules.
The simple fact is this: we cannot stay like this indefinitely. The more we are locked down, the longer the curve is protracted. Yes, it is flatter, but it is also longer. So, what I believe we are going to see is a pulsed effect just like the article describes where we relax things and let the virus spread a bit, but we also get some people back to work. Then, once the virus starts to ramp up again, we lock it all back down again. Wash, rinse, and repeat until we hit herd immunity, develop treatments that mitigate the load on hospitals, or develop immunizations.
Like it said, there is essentially no outcome here where it just goes away. Even if we somehow get rid of it here in Ohio, it will only take one person travelling through from anywhere else to touch it off again. Same on a larger scale should we do the utterly impossible and eliminate it in the United States; the first business trip from overseas, or the first person crossing one of our borders, would bring it right back to us.
So, given that it is NOT going away, period, the focus MUST switch to figuring out how to best get through the next year to eighteen months, and that is to do it while accomplishing two things simultaneously: advance us toward herd immunity while still protecting people and not shuttering the entire economy. The only realistic way of doing that is that once we have more tests distributed, we make it available everywhere so people can get those new 5-minute tests and then we let everyone out... and monitor test results to adjust policy as needed. As it flares, we lock things down in that area until it slows.
Getting titer tests out to those of us that have been ill in the last couple of months (I was about a month ago) but were never tested could be huge step in moving forward. If there is any immunity to this after having gotten it, those that had it could be out working, keeping the economy moving. I know there have been mixed reports about testing positive again but this could be the best chance to get people working again.
I saw that article shared on Facespace several days ago, and it is indeed sobering.
The notion of several periods of resuming/lockdown is, I think, why some areas may not be on lockdown for much longer. If an area doesn't have many cases, you may as well let the natives out for a bit. Yes, it will then spread faster, but it also spreads almost as fast when people don't adhere 100% to social distancing and lockdown rules.
The simple fact is this: we cannot stay like this indefinitely. The more we are locked down, the longer the curve is protracted. Yes, it is flatter, but it is also longer. So, what I believe we are going to see is a pulsed effect just like the article describes where we relax things and let the virus spread a bit, but we also get some people back to work. Then, once the virus starts to ramp up again, we lock it all back down again. Wash, rinse, and repeat until we hit herd immunity, develop treatments that mitigate the load on hospitals, or develop immunizations.
Like it said, there is essentially no outcome here where it just goes away. Even if we somehow get rid of it here in Ohio, it will only take one person travelling through from anywhere else to touch it off again. Same on a larger scale should we do the utterly impossible and eliminate it in the United States; the first business trip from overseas, or the first person crossing one of our borders, would bring it right back to us.
So, given that it is NOT going away, period, the focus MUST switch to figuring out how to best get through the next year to eighteen months, and that is to do it while accomplishing two things simultaneously: advance us toward herd immunity while still protecting people and not shuttering the entire economy. The only realistic way of doing that is that once we have more tests distributed, we make it available everywhere so people can get those new 5-minute tests and then we let everyone out... and monitor test results to adjust policy as needed. As it flares, we lock things down in that area until it slows.
They just announced a new antibody test to test people to see if they've had it and either didn't know or the symptoms weren't that bad. This will in effect test for immunity allowing those people to return to work/public life. They said it will be available in the states in a week or so.
I saw that article shared on Facespace several days ago, and it is indeed sobering.
The notion of several periods of resuming/lockdown is, I think, why some areas may not be on lockdown for much longer. If an area doesn't have many cases, you may as well let the natives out for a bit. Yes, it will then spread faster, but it also spreads almost as fast when people don't adhere 100% to social distancing and lockdown rules.
The simple fact is this: we cannot stay like this indefinitely. The more we are locked down, the longer the curve is protracted. Yes, it is flatter, but it is also longer. So, what I believe we are going to see is a pulsed effect just like the article describes where we relax things and let the virus spread a bit, but we also get some people back to work. Then, once the virus starts to ramp up again, we lock it all back down again. Wash, rinse, and repeat until we hit herd immunity, develop treatments that mitigate the load on hospitals, or develop immunizations.
Like it said, there is essentially no outcome here where it just goes away. Even if we somehow get rid of it here in Ohio, it will only take one person travelling through from anywhere else to touch it off again. Same on a larger scale should we do the utterly impossible and eliminate it in the United States; the first business trip from overseas, or the first person crossing one of our borders, would bring it right back to us.
So, given that it is NOT going away, period, the focus MUST switch to figuring out how to best get through the next year to eighteen months, and that is to do it while accomplishing two things simultaneously: advance us toward herd immunity while still protecting people and not shuttering the entire economy. The only realistic way of doing that is that once we have more tests distributed, we make it available everywhere so people can get those new 5-minute tests and then we let everyone out... and monitor test results to adjust policy as needed. As it flares, we lock things down in that area until it slows.
They just announced a new antibody test to test people to see if they've had it and either didn't know or the symptoms weren't that bad. This will in effect test for immunity allowing those people to return to work/public life. They said it will be available in the states in a week or so.
Immunity? Hmm.. from what I understood surviving this doesn't grant immunity.. am I wrong?
I saw that article shared on Facespace several days ago, and it is indeed sobering.
The notion of several periods of resuming/lockdown is, I think, why some areas may not be on lockdown for much longer. If an area doesn't have many cases, you may as well let the natives out for a bit. Yes, it will then spread faster, but it also spreads almost as fast when people don't adhere 100% to social distancing and lockdown rules.
The simple fact is this: we cannot stay like this indefinitely. The more we are locked down, the longer the curve is protracted. Yes, it is flatter, but it is also longer. So, what I believe we are going to see is a pulsed effect just like the article describes where we relax things and let the virus spread a bit, but we also get some people back to work. Then, once the virus starts to ramp up again, we lock it all back down again. Wash, rinse, and repeat until we hit herd immunity, develop treatments that mitigate the load on hospitals, or develop immunizations.
Like it said, there is essentially no outcome here where it just goes away. Even if we somehow get rid of it here in Ohio, it will only take one person travelling through from anywhere else to touch it off again. Same on a larger scale should we do the utterly impossible and eliminate it in the United States; the first business trip from overseas, or the first person crossing one of our borders, would bring it right back to us.
So, given that it is NOT going away, period, the focus MUST switch to figuring out how to best get through the next year to eighteen months, and that is to do it while accomplishing two things simultaneously: advance us toward herd immunity while still protecting people and not shuttering the entire economy. The only realistic way of doing that is that once we have more tests distributed, we make it available everywhere so people can get those new 5-minute tests and then we let everyone out... and monitor test results to adjust policy as needed. As it flares, we lock things down in that area until it slows.
They just announced a new antibody test to test people to see if they've had it and either didn't know or the symptoms weren't that bad. This will in effect test for immunity allowing those people to return to work/public life. They said it will be available in the states in a week or so.
Immunity? Hmm.. from what I understood surviving this doesn't grant immunity.. am I wrong?
Mixed reporting at this point, but they are saying if you recover from having it that you will have the antibodies to help fight off reinfection for 1-2 years after. But they can't be sure about the duration and it does not rule out reinfection altogether.
I saw that article shared on Facespace several days ago, and it is indeed sobering.
The notion of several periods of resuming/lockdown is, I think, why some areas may not be on lockdown for much longer. If an area doesn't have many cases, you may as well let the natives out for a bit. Yes, it will then spread faster, but it also spreads almost as fast when people don't adhere 100% to social distancing and lockdown rules.
The simple fact is this: we cannot stay like this indefinitely. The more we are locked down, the longer the curve is protracted. Yes, it is flatter, but it is also longer. So, what I believe we are going to see is a pulsed effect just like the article describes where we relax things and let the virus spread a bit, but we also get some people back to work. Then, once the virus starts to ramp up again, we lock it all back down again. Wash, rinse, and repeat until we hit herd immunity, develop treatments that mitigate the load on hospitals, or develop immunizations.
Like it said, there is essentially no outcome here where it just goes away. Even if we somehow get rid of it here in Ohio, it will only take one person travelling through from anywhere else to touch it off again. Same on a larger scale should we do the utterly impossible and eliminate it in the United States; the first business trip from overseas, or the first person crossing one of our borders, would bring it right back to us.
So, given that it is NOT going away, period, the focus MUST switch to figuring out how to best get through the next year to eighteen months, and that is to do it while accomplishing two things simultaneously: advance us toward herd immunity while still protecting people and not shuttering the entire economy. The only realistic way of doing that is that once we have more tests distributed, we make it available everywhere so people can get those new 5-minute tests and then we let everyone out... and monitor test results to adjust policy as needed. As it flares, we lock things down in that area until it slows.
They just announced a new antibody test to test people to see if they've had it and either didn't know or the symptoms weren't that bad. This will in effect test for immunity allowing those people to return to work/public life. They said it will be available in the states in a week or so.
Immunity? Hmm.. from what I understood surviving this doesn't grant immunity.. am I wrong?
Mixed reporting at this point, but they are saying if you recover from having it that you will have the antibodies to help fight off reinfection for 1-2 years after. But they can't be sure about the duration and it does not rule out reinfection altogether.
Hmmph.. I'd just as soon not have to do this again in 2 or 3 years
They just announced a new antibody test to test people to see if they've had it and either didn't know or the symptoms weren't that bad. This will in effect test for immunity allowing those people to return to work/public life. They said it will be available in the states in a week or so.
That would be HUGE. Of course, again, it depends upon whether or not actual immunity is granted.
Most likely, the reports we've had from reinfections are weaker immune systems or they were very mild cases, or perhaps both, I'd bet.
Mild case and a slowly responding immune system could easily process a virus but not build up a ton of antigens.
We still need to know more in regard to how long people remain contagious and shedding; particularly for the asymptomatic cases as that is likely the largest vector of spread.
I kinda wonder if this is how it was with the other seasonal coronaviruses we deal with all the time and natural selection just weeded out those genetic branches that were most susceptible to severe disease, and if this means that in a generation or two this thing is nothing but another "common cold" to most people.
President says 1 million have been tested in the USA, more than anywhere else.
imo,
hmm, given the population of the USA, I probably will get access to a test by groundhog day next February, well in time for some "other" end of the world catastrophe to take the front page headlines.
State of New York, number for 3/30/20, almost 66,500 cases, that's up from 59,500+ a day before.
This is good news, as it's no longer a 30% increase per 24-36 hours;, 2 - 3 days ago this was on pace to hit about 117,000 by this afternoon or before,
If NY state keeps from doubling that 66,500 case number until the end of next week,
Colorado governor stated doubling of cases slowed from 2 days to 5 days.
Is there less testing on weekends? See first bar chart in this link. The one for cases by onset date. All those low points are weekends.
There's not enough consistency in testing anywhere in the country for that "number of cases" figure to be meaningful. To quote decreases as something positive is very misleading. Like you said, they could have tested even fewer people on the weekends.
The only numbers that are accurate are ICU patients and deaths. Even the hospitalized patients showing respiratory symptoms aren't all tested.
This is a follow-up to Milk's post about the refrigerated trailers in NYC. I don't know about you, but I find this to be alarming. 85 trailers? Jesus!
Quote:
FEMA sends refrigerator trucks to NYC to serve as temporary mortuaries for coronavirus victims
Published Mon, Mar 30 202012:38 PM EDTUpdated 6 hours ago Noah Higgins-Dunn
Key Points
Mayor Bill De Blasio said the city is preparing for a “horrible increase in the number of deaths.”
When asked whether Madison Square Garden would be converted into a temporary mortuary, FEMA’s regional chief ruled out that idea.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency said Monday it is sending refrigerator trucks to New York City to serve as temporary mortuaries for deceased coronavirus patients.
Thomas Von Essen, the agency’s regional administrator, said the military has provided 42 people to the Manhattan Medical Examiner’s Office where there is a “desperate need” for help in the Queens borough.
When asked whether Madison Square Garden would be converted into a temporary mortuary, Van Essen ruled out that idea.
“We are sending refrigeration trucks to New York to help with some of the problem on a temporary basis,” he said at a press conference with Mayor Bill de Blasio as local officials welcomed the Naval medical ship the USNS Comfort to New York City.
De Blasio said the city is preparing for a “horrible increase in the number of deaths.”
“To date, I still fear the worse is not going to be April but actually the beginning of May,” de Blasio said. “I guarantee you that April is going to be exceedingly tough and we have to understand that any projection of things being all OK by Easter, there’s just no way that’s true for New York City.”
As of Sunday night, local health officials confirmed more than 33,400 confirmed COVID-19 cases in New York City alone, comprising almost a quarter of all cases in the U.S.
Over the weekend, de Blasio said he authorized the use of fines in parks and playgrounds for those not following proper social distancing measures. If someone doesn’t adhere to a warning from a police officer, they could be fined $250 to $500.
“They’re going to give people every chance to listen. And if anyone doesn’t listen, then they deserve a fine at this point,” de Blasio told reporters on Sunday.
I've been getting in my car and going for a drive every single day, sometimes with the windows down. It's kind of a nice change of pace compared to staying inside. I also go the grocery whenever I want and go for walks. Anytime I touch anything in public, right after wards I don't touch my face and carry hydrogen peroxide to wipe down everything. I also wash my hands when I get home and before I eat anything just in case. Hopefully that's enough.
I've been getting in my car and going for a drive every single day, sometimes with the windows down. It's kind of a nice change of pace compared to staying inside. I also go the grocery whenever I want and go for walks. Anytime I touch anything in public, right after wards I don't touch my face and carry hydrogen peroxide to wipe down everything. I also wash my hands when I get home and before I eat anything just in case. Hopefully that's enough.
After being out and about take your shoes off at the door. Coat too. Minimal.
Dr. Fauci anticipates coronavirus outbreak in the fall
WASHINGTON (WJW) — Dr. Anthony Fauci said it’s likely there will be a second coronavirus outbreak in the fall.
The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases answered a few questions during the White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing on Monday. It came a day after President Donald Trump extended federal social distancing guidelines through April.
Fauci said he anticipates coronavirus will be cyclical and return in the fall because of its degree of transmissibility.
Fauci said the second outbreak will be a different ball game compared to when the virus was first detected in the United States. We have better ability to test and contact trace, there are clinical trials for therapeutic intervention and a vaccine is on track, the doctor said.
“What we’re going through now is more than just lessons learned, it’s going to be things we have available to us that we didn’t have before,” Fauci said.
When asked about the possibility of a second outbreak, Trump said, “I hope it doesn’t happen, but we’re certainly prepared.”
The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed.
As the coronavirus spreads, the collapse of the project helps explain America’s acute shortage.
Thirteen years ago, a group of U.S. public health officials came up with a plan to address what they regarded as one of the medical system’s crucial vulnerabilities: a shortage of ventilators.
The breathing-assistance machines tended to be bulky, expensive and limited in number. The plan was to build a large fleet of inexpensive portable devices to deploy in a flu pandemic or another crisis.
Money was budgeted. A federal contract was signed. Work got underway.
And then things suddenly veered off course. A multibillion-dollar maker of medical devices bought the small California company that had been hired to design the new machines. The project ultimately produced zero ventilators.
That failure delayed the development of an affordable ventilator by at least half a decade, depriving hospitals, states and the federal government of the ability to stock up. The federal government started over with another company in 2014, whose ventilator was approved only last year and whose products have not yet been delivered.
Today, with the coronavirus ravaging America’s health care system, the nation’s emergency-response stockpile is still waiting on its first shipment. The scarcity of ventilators has become an emergency, forcing doctors to make life-or-death decisions about who gets to breathe and who does not.
The stalled efforts to create a new class of cheap, easy-to-use ventilators highlight the perils of outsourcing projects with critical public-health implications to private companies; their focus on maximizing profits is not always consistent with the government’s goal of preparing for a future crisis.
“We definitely saw the problem,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, who ran the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2009 to 2017. “We innovated to try and get a solution. We made really good progress, but it doesn’t appear to have resulted in the volume that we needed.”
The project — code-named Aura — came in the wake of a parade of near-miss pandemics: SARS, MERS, bird flu and swine flu.
Federal officials decided to re-evaluate their strategy for the next public health emergency. They considered vaccines, antiviral drugs, protective gear and ventilators, the last line of defense for patients suffering respiratory failure. The federal government’s Strategic National Stockpile had full-service ventilators in its warehouses, but not in the quantities that would be needed to combat a major pandemic.
In 2006, the Department of Health and Human Services established a new division, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, with a mandate to prepare medical responses to chemical, biological and nuclear attacks, as well as infectious diseases.
In its first year in operation, the research agency considered how to expand the number of ventilators. It estimated that an additional 70,000 machines would be required in a moderate influenza pandemic.
The ventilators in the national stockpile were not ideal. In addition to being big and expensive, they required a lot of training to use. The research agency convened a panel of experts in November 2007 to devise a set of requirements for a new generation of mobile, easy-to-use ventilators.
In 2008, the government requested proposals from companies that were interested in designing and building the ventilators.
The goal was for the machines to be approved by regulators for mass development by 2010 or 2011, according to budget documents that the Department of Health and Human Services submitted to Congress in 2008. After that, the government would buy as many as 40,000 new ventilators and add them to the national stockpile.
The ventilators were to cost less than $3,000 each. The lower the price, the more machines the government would be able to buy.
Companies submitted bids for the Project Aura job. The research agency opted not to go with a large, established device maker. Instead it chose Newport Medical Instruments, a small outfit in Costa Mesa, Calif.
Newport, which was owned by a Japanese medical device company, only made ventilators. Being a small, nimble company, Newport executives said, would help it efficiently fulfill the government’s needs.
Ventilators at the time typically went for about $10,000 each, and getting the price down to $3,000 would be tough. But Newport’s executives bet they would be able to make up for any losses by selling the ventilators around the world.
“It would be very prestigious to be recognized as a supplier to the federal government,” said Richard Crawford, who was Newport’s head of research and development at the time. “We thought the international market would be strong, and there is where Newport would have a good profit on the product.”
Federal officials were pleased. In addition to replenishing the national stockpile, “we also thought they’d be so attractive that the commercial market would want to buy them, too,” said Nicole Lurie, who was then the assistant secretary for preparedness and response inside the Department of Health and Human Services. With luck, the new generation of ventilators would become ubiquitous, helping hospitals nationwide better prepare for a crisis.
The contract was officially awarded a few months after the H1N1 outbreak, which the C.D.C. estimated infected 60 million and killed 12,000 in the United States, began to taper off in 2010. The contract called for Newport to receive $6.1 million upfront, with the expectation that the government would pay millions more as it bought thousands of machines to fortify the stockpile.
Project Aura was Newport’s first job for the federal government. Things moved quickly and smoothly, employees and federal officials said in interviews.
Every three months, officials with the biomedical research agency would visit Newport’s headquarters. Mr. Crawford submitted monthly reports detailing the company’s spending and progress.
The federal officials “would check everything,” he said. “If we said we were buying equipment, they would want to know what it was used for. There were scheduled visits, scheduled requirements and deliverables each month.”
In 2011, Newport shipped three working prototypes from the company’s California plant to Washington for federal officials to review.
Dr. Frieden, who ran the C.D.C. at the time, got a demonstration in a small conference room attached to his office. “I got all excited,” he said. “It was a multiyear effort that had resulted in something that was going to be really useful.”
In April 2012, a senior Health and Human Services official testified before Congress that the program was “on schedule to file for market approval in September 2013.” After that, the machines would go into production.
Then everything changed.
The medical device industry was undergoing rapid consolidation, with one company after another merging with or acquiring other makers. Manufacturers wanted to pitch themselves as one-stop shops for hospitals, which were getting bigger, and that meant offering a broader suite of products. In May 2012, Covidien, a large medical device manufacturer, agreed to buy Newport for just over $100 million.
Covidien — a publicly traded company with sales of $12 billion that year — already sold traditional ventilators, but that was only a small part of its multifaceted businesses. In 2012 alone, Covidien bought five other medical device companies, in addition to Newport.
Newport executives and government officials working on the ventilator contract said they immediately noticed a change when Covidien took over. Developing inexpensive portable ventilators no longer seemed like a top priority.
Newport applied in June 2012 for clearance from the Food and Drug Administration to market the device, but two former federal officials said Covidien had demanded additional funding and a higher sales price for the ventilators. The government gave the company an additional $1.4 million, a drop in the bucket for a company Covidien’s size.
Government officials and executives at rival ventilator companies said they suspected that Covidien had acquired Newport to prevent it from building a cheaper product that would undermine Covidien’s profits from its existing ventilator business.
Some Newport executives who worked on the project were reassigned to other roles. Others decided to leave the company.
“Up until the time the company sold, I was really happy and excited about the project,” said Hong-Lin Du, Newport’s president at the time of its sale. “Then I was assigned to a different job.”
In 2014, with no ventilators having been delivered to the government, Covidien executives told officials at the biomedical research agency that they wanted to get out of the contract, according to three former federal officials. The executives complained that it was not sufficiently profitable for the company.
The government agreed to cancel the contract. The world was focused at the time on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. The research agency started over, awarding a new contract for $13.8 million to the giant Dutch company Philips. In 2015, Covidien was sold for $50 billion to another huge medical device company, Medtronic. Charles J. Dockendorff, Covidien’s former chief financial officer, said he did not know why the contract had fallen apart. “I am not aware of that issue,” he said in a text message.
Robert J. White, president of the minimally invasive therapies group at Medtronic who worked at Covidien during the Newport acquisition, initially said he had no recollection of the Project Aura contract. A Medtronic spokeswoman later said that Mr. White was under the impression that the contract had been winding down before Covidien bought Newport.
In a statement Sunday night, after the article was published, Medtronic said, “The prototype ventilator, developed by Newport Medical, would not have been able to meet the specifications required by the government, nor at the price required.” Medtronic said that one problem was that the machine was not going to be usable with newborns.
It wasn’t until last July that the F.D.A. signed off on the new Philips ventilator, the Trilogy Evo. The government ordered 10,000 units in December, setting a delivery date in mid-2020.
As the extent of the spread of the new coronavirus in the United States became clear, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, revealed on March 15 that the stockpile had 12,700 ventilators ready to deploy. The government has since sped up maintenance to increase the number available to 16,660 — still fewer than a quarter of what officials years earlier had estimated would be required in a moderate flu pandemic.
Last week, the Health and Human Services Department contacted ventilator makers to see how soon they could produce thousands of machines. And it began pressing Philips to speed up its planned shipments.
The stockpile is “still awaiting delivery of the Trilogy Evo,” a Health and Human Services spokeswoman said. “We do not currently have any in inventory, though we are expecting them soon.”
Inside Sweden’s Radically Different Approach to the Coronavirus No lockdown, no quarantines, just voluntary advice and a big dose of hope
The ski pistes are open, the restaurants are doing ample business and the malls are awash with shoppers.
Welcome to Sweden, the last holdout among the small number of Western countries to have taken a radically different approach to the coronavirus pandemic.
While social life in Europe and much of the U.S. now centers on the home after governments imposed increasingly drastic curbs on freedom of movement, Sweden left offices and stores open, issued recommendations rather than restrictions, and waited to see what happens.
Businesses, kindergartens and schools remain open. After a long winter, Stockholm’s street cafes and outdoor bars swelled with people over the weekend, and the city’s old town drew large crowds as locals ventured out to enjoy the good weather. The only mandatory rules are a ban on meetings of more than 50 people and an order forcing bars and restaurants to only serve seated customers so as to avoid overcrowding.
The U.K. and the Netherlands also briefly considered letting the virus propagate through the population in a controlled manner so as to build a natural form of immunity. Both reversed course after academics warned they could face hundreds of thousands of deaths and an overwhelmed health care system.
It is too early to assess whether Sweden’s approach will have a benign or catastrophic outcome, but so far, the virus hasn’t spread widely there. Sweden, with 10 million inhabitants, had 4,028 confirmed infections and 146 deaths by Monday, according to a tally compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Austria, a similarly-sized European country with about 8.8 million people that is under lockdown, had 9,200 cases and 108 deaths.
Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist and architect of the policy, says the approach, much like the original British one, is to let the virus spread as slow as possible while sheltering the elderly and the vulnerable until much of the population becomes naturally immune or a vaccine becomes available.
The next two weeks will determine whether Sweden’s approach can succeed or if authorities bend to the reality of a rash of new cases, said Dr. Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, a physician and professor at the Karolinska Institute. She predicted the government would be forced to retreat because the virus was out of control due to the absence of restrictions and testing. Asian countries that have managed to avoid lockdowns relied on mass testing to isolate positive cases and stop the contagion, she said.
Sweden has a long tradition of favoring voluntary guidelines—which call on the elderly to self-isolate and the young to reduce social mobility—over coercive measures. Dr. Tegnell said that could lead to higher compliance.
“A majority of people will stay home if they get symptoms,” he said. “We want to slow down the epidemic until Sweden experiences some sort of peak, and if the peak is not too dramatic we can continue.”
Unlike in the U.K., there is little sign of a backlash against the voluntary approach from a worried public. A Novus poll last week showed 80% of people approved of a speech by Prime Minister Stefan Löfven, in which he appealed to the personal responsibility of each adult citizen to prevent the disease’s spread.
A field hospital in Stockholm appeared to have ample space for patients on Monday.
In Stockholm this past weekend, more people appeared to avoid closed spaces than the previous weekend, and travelers on public transport were sitting apart from each other. Some Stockholmers are staying home and many skiers have cut short their trips to popular resorts such as Åre. The number of people using Stockholm’s underground and commuter trains dropped by 50% last week, according to Storstockholms Lokaltrafik, the public transport company.
Some European experts and officials, including Ansgar Lohse, a prominent German doctor, and Sir Patrick Vallance, chief scientific adviser to the British government, have praised the approach.
But even some of these proponents say it might be hard to replicate outside the specific context of Scandinavia. In Swedish culture, they note, generations don’t interact as much as they do in, say Italy. More than half of Swedish households consist of a single person, according to official data. This means less risk of younger people passing on the virus to their elders.
It may also explain why a disproportionate number of Sweden’s Covid-19 deaths occurred within the country’s Somali community, whose members tend to live in cramped accommodation in poorer neighborhoods, with more intergenerational mingling and less access to government information.
Some Swedish economists have also criticized the government’s strategy as shortsighted, warning that the cost of an out-of-control epidemic could outweigh the benefits of avoiding lockdowns in the short term.
Yet the main expressions of concerns have come from scientists and doctors. Some are concerned that cases will pick up soon and fast. The Huddinge clinic in Stockholm has obtained refrigerated containers to store bodies if the death toll escalates as it has in other countries. Elective surgeries have been paused, and local authorities are building a makeshift Covid-19 clinic in Stockholm.
“This is a big and risky experiment with the entire population that could have a catastrophic outcome,” Joacim Rocklöv, a professor of epidemiology at Umeå University and one of several scientists campaigning for the government to change tack. “It is risky to leave it to people to decide what to do without any restrictions. As can be seen from other countries this is a serious disease, and Sweden is no different than other countries.”
Dr. Rocklöv’s research shows that pursuing herd immunity without suppressing the spread of the virus would overwhelm hospitals and result in large numbers of premature deaths. He is skeptical that high-risk groups can be effectively sheltered.
Fredrik Elgh, a professor of virology at Umea University, said that the current policy was frightening and called for Stockholm to be put under quarantine.
“We will be overwhelmed by cases further down the epidemic curve,” Dr. Elgh said.
I thought I read the other day that their healthcare system was much more prepared for something like this than ours too and that was another reason they favored this approach.
They have, by a good margin, fewer beds per 1,000 citizens that both Italy and the U.S.
Well, there probably isn't a wrong decision. Every society is different and we're all just guessing.
Time will tell; I hope it works for them.... because the cost of it not working will be very hard to pay.
They have a comparable population to Ohio, but have twice the cases and four and a half times the deaths.... and they are probably running slow as they are just coming out of a deeper winter than us. As it warms and people get out, it will probably take off.
Report: Recent Shipment of Urns in Wuhan Reveals China Might Be Hiding Something Big
What? China lying about critical facts in COVID-19?
No way…they would never…
RELATED: [VIDEO] Italian Mayor Created Viral “Anti-Racist” Campaign Called “Hug a Chinese” Just Before Pandemic Hit
Well actually, if this report is accurate then China appears to have lied about thousands of extra coronavirus deaths.
A shipment of urns in Wuhan, China has started raising suspicions on just how many COVID-19 deaths really happened over there.
Massive deliveries of urns in Wuhan have raised fresh skepticism of China’s coronavirus reporting.
As families in the central Chinese city began picking up the cremated ashes of those who have died from the virus this week, photos began circulating on social media and local media outlets showing vast numbers of urns at Wuhan funeral homes.
China has reported 3,299 coronavirus-related deaths, with most taking place in Wuhan, the epicenter of the global pandemic. But one funeral home received two shipments of 5,000 urns over the course of two days, according to the Chinese media outlet Caixin.
It’s not clear how many of the urns were filled.
Workers at several funeral parlors declined to provide any details to Bloomberg as to how many urns were waiting to be collected, saying they either did not know or were not authorized to share the number.
The photos surfaced after both the United States and Italy have reported significantly more cases and than China. Italy has reported just shy of three times the fatalities.
Well, I'll say this: If anyone believes the number of virus patients in China, or the number of deaths they self report, they're living in a world o make believe.
And also, can't blame the citizens for not wanting to talk about it, because if they are named, they somehow 'disappear'.
Also, and I hate to think this .... but I would not put it past the Chinese government to mix in the death of a few political opponents with the COVID-19 victims.
Also, and I hate to think this .... but I would not put it past the Chinese government to mix in the death of a few political opponents with the COVID-19 victims.
Personally, I don't think that political opponents exist in China. Then again, maybe. But if so, their only existence lasts for fractions of seconds. Hence, your point does hold some merit.
I'll go back to believing in Santa Clause and the tooth fairy before I believe what China reports.
And yet just tonight, my daughter got a text from a friend of hers asking her to go to her house to hang out. This is the same friend that was out at a party Saturday night. With who knows how many other kids.
And yet just tonight, my daughter got a text from a friend of hers asking her to go to her house to hang out. This is the same friend that was out at a party Saturday night. With who knows how many other kids.
And yet just tonight, my daughter got a text from a friend of hers asking her to go to her house to hang out. This is the same friend that was out at a party Saturday night. With who knows how many other kids.
Kids are stupid.
I'm just glad all on these boards, including me, weren't stupid when we were kids.
And yet just tonight, my daughter got a text from a friend of hers asking her to go to her house to hang out. This is the same friend that was out at a party Saturday night. With who knows how many other kids.
Kids are stupid.
I'm just glad all on these boards, including me, weren't stupid when we were kids.
I would be taking full advantage of all these empty public spaces if I was 14.
I'm just glad all on these boards, including me, weren't stupid when we were kids.
That's why kids have parents. To stop them from doing stupid things. Unless of course you think she snuck out to go to the party and was sneaking to have someone to stay the night.
I was just thinking of the "when I was that age" thing ..... but when I was that age, I did a lot (ok, anout 53,000 lots) of stupid stuff ...... but I was never faced with a pandemic.
And possibly has/had to do with the onset of mass testing, availability, as the "introduction" of testing would present all positives as new positives for that time frame. (and thus skew a larger number for the beginning date)
What bothers most about this go around is that there is a clear divide among party lines as to the necessity of the stay-at-home measures.
Now we can discuss the economic impacts but you also have to realize that there is a lot of people losing their lives. A co-worker of mine lost his father in law (60), and his uncle (56) who were both healthy.
All I have to say is that the statistics seem a bit crazy, when a healthy family member is lost.
The current US percentage of loss is about 2 percent. Last time I checked, Italy was above 10 percent (older population) and Spain was about 8 percent. If you are over 70 or have a health condition, there is no way that I would go outside.
Corona virus does not play nicely, it is easily transmitted and deadly.
And possibly has/had to do with the onset of mass testing, availability, as the "introduction" of testing would present all positives as new positives for that time frame. (and thus skew a larger number for the beginning date)
I agree, but we will have to wait a month to find the outcome. Hospital overload may make things more difficult in the coming weeks.
School teacher here. This is week 3 in Ohio of essentially staying at home with my daughter, only to leave for groceries, gas (for my wife who works at a hospital) and the occasional coffee/take out. It's starting to take it's toll - and I'm a grown person who is working online from home. I can't imagine the toll this is taking on people who are out of work, people who are in their 20's and need socialization, and people with multiple children who might have disabilities. I wanted to go back to school this upcoming Monday, but obviously that wouldn't be the right thing to do and I agree with the governor's decision. I give this until May 1 and we need to find a way to get back to our normal. - I think school will remain cancelled, but some restrictions need to be pulled back providing people can be trusted to remain intelligent. Maybe open restaurants from 12-6 at half capacity, maybe allow children with bodily disabilities to return to school to get the rehabilitation they need. I'm looking for some good news. Do any of you think May 1 may be the beginning of the end of this?
Your last question, May 1 being the beginning of the end? Possibly. Depends on how people do in the next month, really.
Opening restaurants from 12-6, at half capacity? Bad idea, in my opinion. It only takes 1 infected person, and lets face it, most of the infected people don't even know they are. (maybe 'infected' isn't the right word?)
It's affecting us all, but even today we have idiots thinking "eh, no big deal", wiich will only make it a big deal for the rest of us for a longer period of time. JMO
I can see your point. In your estimation, when can we start living like we used to without this posing a major threat? I just don't think people can hold up much longer than May (at least in Ohio).
There has to be an answer to this. Sooner rather than later.
I can see your point. In your estimation, when can we start living like we used to without this posing a major threat? I just don't think people can hold up much longer than May (at least in Ohio).
There has to be an answer to this. Sooner rather than later.
I am not qualified to answer the question. I could give you my opinion, but that means nothing. All I can say is, the more people avoid other people, the better we will be, and the sooner.
Do any of you think May 1 may be the beginning of the end of this?
No chance. They're just slow playing it so people don't panic when they say this is going to last months. No chance Ohio kids go back to school.
Restaurants will not open anytime soon. Gov. DeWine and Dr. Acton have basically hinted and told everyone this if people have been watching their press conferences.
They have said multiple times, they will not ease up on restrictions until they are certain easing restrictions will not start a wildfire.
Basically, they are saying, we have one chance to get this right.
I can see your point. In your estimation, when can we start living like we used to without this posing a major threat? I just don't think people can hold up much longer than May (at least in Ohio).
There has to be an answer to this. Sooner rather than later.
The models that the scientists are using say if we 100 percent shut down (which we haven’t) thru the end of May we would have 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. If some states won’t issue stay at home orders, if it gets nice out and everyone wants to get out and about, if they want to open the economy early there will be more deaths and a longer duration or a second stay at home early. And Dr. Fauci already stated he is worried about an outbreak in the fall.
The fed government was slow/absent on testing and Ppe and we have to take drastic measures or the outcome will be way worse than even the 100-240k deaths
I don't think opening restaurants for limited hours at half capacity would be good for most of the owners. They would need additional supplies and staff above and beyond a carryout/drive thru only operation. They make their profits mostly from volume, as I understand it, and would have to reach and pass their break even points daily.
Do any of you think May 1 may be the beginning of the end of this?
No chance. They're just slow playing it so people don't panic when they say this is going to last months. No chance Ohio kids go back to school.
Restaurants will not open anytime soon. Gov. DeWine and Dr. Acton have basically hinted and told everyone this if people have been watching their press conferences.
They have said multiple times, they will not ease up on restrictions until they are certain easing restrictions will not start a wildfire.
Basically, they are saying, we have one chance to get this right.
It's going to be awhile.
Could you imagine if everyone had just stayed home for 2 weeks 2 weeks ago?
Do any of you think May 1 may be the beginning of the end of this?
No chance. They're just slow playing it so people don't panic when they say this is going to last months. No chance Ohio kids go back to school.
Restaurants will not open anytime soon. Gov. DeWine and Dr. Acton have basically hinted and told everyone this if people have been watching their press conferences.
They have said multiple times, they will not ease up on restrictions until they are certain easing restrictions will not start a wildfire.
Basically, they are saying, we have one chance to get this right.
It's going to be awhile.
Could you imagine if everyone had just stayed home for 2 weeks 2 weeks ago?
There are still states without stay at home orders. They'll only delay this for the rest of us...
An excerpt from the article... “ A truck driver in Wuhan delivered about 5,000 urns to a single funeral home over two days last week, according to the South China Morning Post, which cited a Caixin magazine report.
The Caixin report, according to SCMP, "purportedly showed 3,500 urns stacked on the floor of the funeral home."
The official death toll in Wuhan "can't be right ... because the incinerators have been working round-the-clock," one resident, who identified himself by his surname, Zhang, told Radio Free Asia.
"So how can so few people have died?" Zhang asked.
According to RFA, some city residents said on social media that Wuhan's funeral homes were "handing out 3,500 urns every day." RFA's reporting, which could not be independently verified by Insider, said at the current rate, about "42,000 urns would be given out" between March 23 and April 5, when a traditional grave-tending festival begins.
A resident who identified himself by his surname, Mao, also alleged the official death toll was wrong.“
Do any of you think May 1 may be the beginning of the end of this?
No chance. They're just slow playing it so people don't panic when they say this is going to last months. No chance Ohio kids go back to school.
Restaurants will not open anytime soon. Gov. DeWine and Dr. Acton have basically hinted and told everyone this if people have been watching their press conferences.
They have said multiple times, they will not ease up on restrictions until they are certain easing restrictions will not start a wildfire.
Basically, they are saying, we have one chance to get this right.
It's going to be awhile.
Could you imagine if everyone had just stayed home for 2 weeks 2 weeks ago?
It wouldn't change anything, really. It's not long enough. It's not severe/strict enough.
You only have to look at Wuhan to see that. They literally welded building doors shut and built walls around complexes to keep people in. They posted armed guards everywhere on the streets... and it still took them the better part of two months to get to where they are just in the past two days opening things up in that city again.
We will likely hit 935k cases worldwide today and go over 1 million by end of tomorrow.
The US, at the recent rates, will be knocking on the door of a quarter million all on its own.
We had over 900 deaths here in the US yesterday. A week from now, that will probably be "the good ol' days" and we will likely be seeing 1500+ each day. Depending on how some of these other emerging hotspots kick up, it might be a lot higher than that. By end of April, we will most likely be over 5000 per day.
Dewine and his staff are doing things in such a sensible manner. I am highly impressed.
The question I put to myself, is do I find it scarier that Dewine thinks himself a potentate, or that posts like this suggest the public thinks he is; or are ok with it.
Looks like we're finally going into lockdown here.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a 'stay-at-home' order for the entire state to help slow the spread of COVID-19. The order will go into effect at midnight tomorrow and will last for the next 30 days, the governor announced Wednesday.
"At this point, I think that even though there are lots of places in Florida with a very low infection rate, it makes sense to make this move now," DeSantis explained.
Under the order, Floridians are directed to limit all movements outside of the home for the next 30 days and only leave home to conduct "essential" services, activities and business.
Several counties, including Hillsborough and Pinellas, had already put their own 'safer-at-home' orders in place, but this new order will apply to the entire state and supercedes all county orders.
Under the order, individuals may work from home and businesses or organizations are encouraged to provide delivery, carry-out or curbside service. Under the order, groups of more than 10 individuals are not allowed to gather in a public space.
What you can do: -Work from home -Go to grocery store or pharmacy -Attend religious services -Participate in recreational activities (consistent with social distancing guidelines) such as walking, biking, hiking, fishing, hunting, running, or swimming -Take care of pets -Care for or assist a loved one or friend
Essential businesses include: -Grocery stores -Restaurant delivery and drive-thrus -Airlines, taxis and other private transportation providers -Gas stations -Laundromats -Veterinarian offices -Businesses engaged in food cultivation, including farming, livestock, and fishing -Businesses that provide shelter and social services -Hardware and gardening stores -Firearm and ammunition supply stores -Newspaper, television, radio and other media services -Businesses that provide food and shelter
Essential services include: -Fire Rescue -First responders -Law enforcement -Essential federal employees and military personnel -Personnel employed by an entity identified as one of the sixteen critical infrastructure sectors by the Cyber-Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security when pursuing work-related functions, or traveling directly to or from work and their respective residents. -State and local government employees providing services during this state of emergency -School district employees providing services during this state of emergency -Medical and health-related personnel -Mass transit personnel
Why do I even know this? 
