The other thread is 11 pages deep. I thought I would stick w/the movie/book theme for the title.

Outbreak was an intense movie back in the day. It starred Dustin Hoffman, Morgan Freeman, Cuba Gooding Jr, Rene Russo, Donald Sutherland, Kevin Spacy, and Patrick Dempsey.

It was based on Richard Preston's nonfiction book: The Hot Zone.

Let's keep the conversation going.

Denzel Ward to cover biggest monthly expense for 21 Clevelanders out of work due to coronavirus pandemic - cleveland.com
https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2020/04...s-pandemic.html

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Denzel Ward has made a name for himself covering the NFL’s best receivers, but this month, he’ll make you know his name for a more noble reason.

A native of Cleveland, the Browns cornerback will pay the biggest monthly expense for 21 people out of work in his hometown because of the coronavirus epidemic.

“It’s unique for me because the community I’m fortunate enough to play for is the community that helped raise me my entire life,” said Ward, who wears the No. 21. “So to help your neighbors in a time when they might be struggling is just a no-brainer.”

Ward will target 21 service workers and small business owners who have lost their jobs. He wanted to help in the most practical way he could, by relieving people of their largest financial burden for a month.

“Whether that’s rent or mortgage, or just groceries for your family, I want someone to breathe a little easier knowing that’s taken care of this month,” Ward explained.

Through his Make Them Know Your Name (MTKYN) foundation, Ward and his team will choose 21 recipients after reviewing applications submitted through the link on the MTKYN website.

“It’s important to me that people know they’re not alone in this,’’ Ward said. “We’re all in this together. That’s the Ohio way.”

Ward joins other Browns players such as Baker Mayfield, Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi, who have all donated to those in Northeast Ohio impacted by COVID-19.

Mayfield and his wife, Emily, donated $50,000 to the Greater Cleveland Food Bank and teamed up with TownHall Restaurant to help maintain the meal delivery program for the St. Augustine Hunger Center. Garrett joined forces with local business to provide 24,000 pounds of food to the needy, and Ogunjobi donated 100,000 meals through the Greater Cleveland Foodbank.

Browns owners Jimmy and Dee Haslam also donated $1.5 million to COVID-19 relief efforts in Ohio.

For more information or to apply, visit www.MTKYN.org or follow along on Make Them Know Your Name’s social channels.

Nice job by all the Brown's players who have decided to help others. Same goes for the Haslams.

I think I saw that on Netflix, but I don't want to watch those kind of movies right now. I have to work and I struggle with trying to stay healthy so I can go to the store and provide for my 94 year old mom and my 73 year old sister who lives there taking care of mom.

I have a R95 respirator I carry in my car. I have to use them for the extremely Hazardous chemicals I work with on a daily bases. So I put it on when I go in the store to buy them food. I sanitize all the packages and put on gloves before i drop them off at the back door.

I go to the front window and wave to mom and tell her I love her. My father passed 10 years ago and I'm the youngest and only son out of 5 children.

So I work come home stay to myself. I'm catching up on reading and watching Netflix. The thing I don't understand is I love to work out..But I haven't been able to bring myself to.

I guess I'm rambling on..But being alone every night I talk to friends but sometimes It feels good to come on here and say hi.

Maybe I'll check out the movie. I seem to remember watching it. Surely has some good actors in it. Just when I get home from all the craziness of my day.. I just want to forget about the outbreak and think about something else that brings a little joy and light into my life.

I pray and hope all on this board are safe and healthy.

I really like your post, bro.

Not sure why.............but, probably because it so very human. It effectively captures our hopes, fears, concerns, doubt, and the great unknown in such language that every common man can relate to it.

Hang in there, bro. When this over, I'll drive back up to Ohio and we'll drink a beer and I'll punch you in the nose for some of your comments in the past. Then, I'll buy you another beer.

Just another note. all 3 of my daughters are having car issues. I had my Youngest daughters Jeep in the shop today. My middle daughter dropped her Nitro off tonight and my oldest daughter is dropping hers off tomorrow. The owner of the shop is taking 20 percent off the parts because of the covid 19.

He also sanitizes the car puts the keys in it and I pay over the phone. My daughters just go pick up the car. I really like how he's doing buisness.

That's classic bro. lmao. Good stuff, thanks for the laugh!

If you've been following my posts, Ny State, # of cases,

Today, first of April, (no foolin intended) Cases, 83,712.

ok, that's up 7917 from yesterday, increase of 10.45% from the 75,795 cases yesterday,

which was up 13% from the 66,497 cases 3,30th, two days ago,

59,513 the day before that,

So, could be, NY ran out of test kits, or somehow stopped testing, (with faster processing newer tests I doubt this assumption holds water)

Or, Every single case is not infecting 2.? other people as it did in the beginning, as much,

Because the Rate, the percentage increase of new cases in the State of NY, from the existing number of cases, confirmed in the state of NY, is clearly trending downward.

sigh,

As bad as the news is, as bad as they tell you,
If you go by the spread rate of just 4-5 days ago, that 83,712 number would be about 140,000, up from about 117,000, and 30% per day, pushing 185K tomorrow, I figure.

Vers.. I'm scared for so many people. I hope it doesn't get as bad as they say it will. And right now..I feel we have to put our differences away and support and love each other to get through this.

And seriously you punch away. I can't wait to feel another human .
And I pray for and thank your wife. And all the ones on here who work in the Medical field Police firemen grocery workers gas station workers for all of you and the ones we don't know.. Thank you..be safe and be healthy.

Just to be clear..............I loved Deisel's post and I talked about that in the first part of my reply. It was a very human response.

The last part was me just goofing around and trying to throw some humor in there.

There were two separate things going on. I think you get that, but just want to make sure Deisel and others do, as well.

Bro, you will always be my friend even when I wanna break your face. It's like brothers. You fight. You pick each other up. You love.

Thanks for the comment about my wife. I am very worried. She won't retire. Says she has to help others. Plus, we are responsible for helping other folks make ends meet.

I'm no expert, but I am a pretty good reader. And bro, it's probably going to get pretty bad. Prepare the best you can. Instruct your loved ones to do the same.

We can get through this. We'll need plenty of education, self-discipline, helping hands, restraint, love, and good-will to get through this silent killer.

I truly hope that people decide to come together rather than throw political stones. Hang in there, bro!

Fate every time I get suspended from this board. It's because me going off on Vers..lol Vers and I know a lot of the same people because he was a local boy here in Stark County.And I really do care about Vers. He is a good guy.all of you are.

Why we don't get along isn't the issue right now. I met you tailgating and I absolutely love you man.

This covid 19 thing is like... I'd rather care about someone then to hear about... well you know..

Your always going to be one of those people I'm so glad I got to meet...

Be safe and Healthy my good friend.

Geez, get a room you putzes!

But he might have a virus

We’re all being effected by this. Many times in huge ways, loss of loved ones. Other times what appears from the outside as smaller things. None the less these things cut into us.

Today I made a choice to stop going to the studio to make art. I spent yesterday evening welding and fabricating. When I got home I felt selfish for being there. I thought a lot about it. I slept on it. This morning I texted my creative partner and let him know.
It’s just me and him in the shop. We’ve kept the big door open to keep air moving. I’ve been wearing a mask... that said I’d never be able to forgive myself if he, his wife, or daughter were to get ill because of me and my nursing career that puts me at risk. It’s heartbreaking as our studio is my sanctuary away from all this. Art is my passion. My reprieve. I’ll now retreat to my home and pull out my pencils, pens, and paper and put my creative energy to use in a different way. One that scratches the itch but doesn’t fulfill me the way working with steel does.
Stay home everyone. Even when it hurts. Hurt can be wrapped in many packages.
My last photo from my studio...

Which leads me to............we are well-stocked on supplies, but I am starting a ton of new home repairs. I have been painting. I am putting in new pavers in my landscaping. I am doing fence repair.......God, how I hate that at 63 years old.

Anyway, I decided to venture out today to get the sand and pavers. While I was out, I went to the liquor store and bought a lot more beer and wine. I then went to Target and scored some hand sanitizer. They had about 20. Asked customers to limit to one per person. This crazy lady grabbed seven of them right beside me. Started yelling about how it was unfair to charge so much. I pointed to the sign and said there was a limit of one per person. She said: "f... that." I'm getting mines." I said I would like to get more, too..........but others need the product as well. She snorted and stomped off.

I then went to Publix and bought more supplies. It's crazy because most people kept their distance and there were messages over the speaker system in 5 minute intervals about keeping your 6 foot social distancing and how we are all in this together. However, some people completely ignored all of it. I was grabbing some olive oil and these two ladies came right up to me and went shoulder to shoulder and grabbed the ones that were on sale. This crap went on and on and on.

It amazes me how rude so many folks are.

j/c...

Interesting article.

The tale of two coronavirus curves: How bad could it have been?
By Doug Livingston
Beacon Journal
Posted at 5:18 PM Updated at 6:06 PM

In an alternate version of this pandemic, the novel coronavirus came and went — crashing through Ohio in a single, calamitous tidal wave.

New daily cases peaked at 61,687 on March 22 (instead of the 79 actually reported that day) and fell below 1,000 by April 2. The virus burnt itself out, like a raging forest fire fueled by people instead of trees.

In this other reality, Ohioans did nothing as hospitals buckled and morgues filled up.

Businesses stayed open. Workers increasingly called in sick.

A respiratory infection with symptoms ranging from unnoticeable to barely breathing spread from music concerts and high school basketball games to infiltrate households and neighborhoods.

Short on sanitized medical supplies, infected health care workers clocked out from fatigue and fever. Hospitals prioritized treatment over testing, which — like an effective viral therapy — wasn’t available.

More so than the reality to come, triage determined who got intensive care or sent home to weather this alone.

“Without any social distancing or business closures, we would have doomed health care workers and hospitals to being able to treat only a small fraction of the sick,” Dr. Summer Johnson McGee, dean at the School of Health Science at the University of New Haven in Connecticut, told the Beacon Journal. “Without aggressive action, the U.S. might have seen hundreds of thousands or even a million people unable to get care dying in makeshift hospitals or at home.”

What sounds like a dystopian science fiction novel was the worst-case scenario modeled by academic researchers after the first case of COVID-19 hit Ohio in February.

With relatively little testing data from a never-before-studied novel strain of coronavirus, this early model led Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine to announce the first statewide school closure order in America. Before publicly announcing the first cases on March 9, DeWine tapped sweeping emergency powers to cancel major sporting or recreational events and delay a presidential primary election.

The modeling by researchers at Ohio State University’s Infectious Diseases Institute continues. The towering do-nothing curve flattened as if the tidal wave hit a breakwall of social distancing, business closures, travel restrictions and vigilant personal hygiene.

Somewhere between the extreme realities of absolute ignorance and the most stringent precautions in America, Ohio measures sacrifice in the differing heights and timing of two curves.

“I’ve said this before, look at Italy. Their health system has been completely overwhelmed for a long period of time,” said Jim Simon, Cleveland Clinic Medical Director of Enterprise Analytics, which is modeling the spread in Summit and other counties served by the hospital system. “Look at the travails that New York City is going through, the poor health care workers who’ve been infected in those hospitals.

“I really credit Gov. DeWine for getting on top of this early and implementing these social distancing restrictions.”

With the worst scenario averted, the worst days are still ahead. The new curve from OSU researchers predicts days with more than 1,000 new cases statewide to begin Sunday and last 44 days instead of already ending Tuesday after 20 calamitous days of laissez-faire response.

Now with private sector unemployment spiking, Congress unleashing $6.2 trillion in stimulus and local governments furloughing workers to preempt tax revenue shortfalls, researchers are being asked, when is it time to relax this extreme social distancing?

Again, there are two extremes.

Academics at Stanford University suggest an indefinite quarantine of only elderly and vulnerable people until a vaccine is available. A Harvard University team advocates the current path of indiscriminate and statewide stay-at-home orders.

Both sides agree that more testing and time is needed to determine whether either is correct.

“This is a great point of contention at the moment,” said Angelo DeLucia, a Northeast Ohio Medical University professor with a Ph.D. in molecular virology. “I’m basically waiting to hear what our experts who have been studying this for a long time have to say. Right now, they’ve come down on mitigating this virus into extinction rather than [relaxing social distancing restrictions] county by county. Although clearly more testing could change our thoughts about this.”

Coronaviruses were discovered in the 1960s but not known to leap from animals to humans until about 2002, DeLucia said. Around that time, one country learned the consequences of hastily returning to normal life.

After the worst of the Sars-COV-1 pandemic in 2002 and 2003, Vietnam maintained strict social distancing. “It basically went away,” DeLucia said.

The same scenario played out in Canada, he said. “Then you almost had a week where they didn’t have the virus. They became complacent. And they had a second wave in Toronto.”

Should new daily cases drop close to zero (as the OSU model predicts sometime in June or later), there remains the possibility that the virus mutates. But DeLucia said early evidence suggests that this novel coronavirus has undergone relatively few changes compared to more adaptive viruses like influenza or HIV.

Health experts from academia and private industry stress that modeling and the consequential predictions they generate are only as good as the numbers they rely on.

Mortality and the rate at which the infection doubles in a population can differ widely from one country, state or city to the next. Slightly different figures loaded into the same model can produce varied predictions.

Even Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is unable to say whether his national estimate for total COVID-19 deaths will be closer to 100,000 or 200,000. “He couldn’t specify,” DeLucia said. “And he uses great precision when he talks.”

Testing that is not uniform, let alone universal, makes for even less reliable modeling. Some hospitals are not testing as robustly as others due to resource availability, said Simon. His modeling informing preparations at the Cleveland Clinic relies on daily hospitalizations instead of confirmed cases, which OSU researchers use.

Considering no action to slow the spread, Simon’s team projected 8,000 new daily cases in Cleveland Clinic facilities by mid-May. With only 29% of the local market share, the impact on the 21-county area, which includes Summit, would have peaked at about 27,500 new daily patients.

Instead, his modeling now assumes 2,700 additional daily Cleveland Clinic patients (9,300 for the 21-county region) by mid-June with 40% adherence to social distancing or 5,400 new daily Cleveland Clinic patients (18,600 for the region) by late May with only 20% social distancing.

The hospital system is tuned to the more conservative estimate, “hoping for the best and preparing for the worst,” Simon said.

https://www.beaconjournal.com/news/20200...ld-it-have-been

You are a good man, Port!

Outbreak, great movie. Hopefully, the government does get the idea to bomb the whole town like they were going to do to Cedar Creek!

Yikes.

Portland do you solder ? When I was a kid back in the 60's 70's a neighbor had a weld shop. But he did art also. He would make some really cool stuff soldering. Using nails and smaller metal to melt solder over things or create a figure.

Don't feel selfish... Hope you get through this okay. Thank you

Oh, I'm pretty aggressive about telling people to back away when I'm at work

The only thing I solder is electrical wire when we run custom electrical lighting and such in our creations. I use to silversmith in college. Soldering jewelry pieces. But it’s been years. I don’t have the torches and tools for that type of work. I use plasma cutters, stick and wire welders now. Big tools to make big art.

Go to your shop and grab a few pieces of steel, an angle grinder, a wheel grinder, some files, belt/disk sander, sandpaper, and buffing polish and make a few quality knives at home bro. That's a small space project that's fulfilling and might be just what the doctor calls for. Just trying to help.

EDIT: You'll need a propane torch and a coffee can full of oil to heat treat and quench too... Lots of good over the shoulder tutorials on youtube for ideas.

The two separate things are what made it so funny. The second beer after slugging him was hilarious. I knew he would get a kick out of it.

Same here bro. You're a class act, I'm glad I stumbled up on the tailgate and hung out with you a few times - we're a lot alike. Just make sure you make it up to some games this year. If you need a ticket let me know.

I'm not taking anything for granted anymore. Not in the "day to day", and not in eying the future. This whole thing really starts to hit you once you get past the sheer lunacy... I think we're all getting there right about now.

Stay safe bro.

J/C

Good on Denzel Ward and Portland ... good work guys!!

First thing that I thought of is all those guys are on their rookie deals... not poor by any stretch but also haven't gotten those 2nd contracts that come with the Scrooge McDuck gold coin pool. Just a little context with those donations.


Diesle,
Thanks for posting, especially those earlier posts. I'll admit that I was way more positive than I should have been going into this whole mess. I was looking forward to working from home, being forced to cook more and exercise more at home. Looking forward to having more time for home projects and such. Totally oblivious to the real impact of this thing beyond stupid, selfish stuff.

j/c

America had over 950 coronavirus deaths in a single day reported yesterday.

You know, I knew that was coming. I know those death rates will probably be going up. I thought I had myself prepared for that sort of news when it came. But alas I didn't. Last night was the first time I had serious trouble sleeping in a very long time. I don't expect that to be unusual moving forward.

I agree. It was actually 1000 deaths over 24 hours.

I was legit shook, bro. There’s gonna be a lot of families suffering, and it’s heart breaking.

We have now sustained more deaths due to the virus than the total US casualties in Iraq, both military and DoD civilian.

Speaking of hot zones, I have no clue what is going on in Mahoning County. I know I have only left the house 4 times since March 18th to run to the grocery stores of pharmacy, and twice to go for motorcycle rides. (totally alone on the bike and not within 10 feet of anybody) With all of my health problems I really can't afford to catch this crap.

https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/20...-case-rate.html

The godfather of someone I know passed away yesterday from it. Other members of the godfather's family have it as well, though none are in serious condition with it from what I gathered.

We've had someone in the building I work in have it. other people across my agency have had it... It's only a matter of time before I directly know someone.

Fortunately it has been almost a month since I had to go physically into the office. My wife leaves for work every day but she's not in contact with many people. Other than a few tasks in the morning she could work from home; however at the point she's already been there and any interaction she has with people is pretty much over. We haven't had to go get groceries in a few weeks, but this weekend we will have to do that. I won't lie, I am slightly nervous about it.

That's why so many of us were trying to get you to change your way of thinking. It sounds as if your actions were much safer than the impression I got of your attitude about the situation on FB. I mean I'm fully aware we are all going to die of something. Yet all of us try to avoid death when and where we can.

But many of us have been saying that there isn't a safe place. Certainly it just makes sense that the most populace places will be hit the hardest at first. But it only spreads outwards from there. I saw a report last night that stated two rural counties in Georgia are rated 3rd and 4th per capita in virus deaths.

Everyone everywhere needs to be safe. I'm glad to hear that you are being safe my friend. Even as much as some of us on here spar in the political forum, I never take those things personally. And as much as I hope and pray for my own family, I also hope and pray everyone in our Dawgtalker family stays safe in our world that keeps getting harder to do with each passing day.

That number is really not as bad as I expected, even just a half a week ago. Now if you said, "Columbus" had over 950 deaths in a single day, I'd understand,

but, better to be underwhelmed.
I'm hopeful, because I think this virus may be wrapping up, not ramping up,
a few more days data might tell the story.

Believe what ya wanna believe.

I strongly doubt that it is, but I hope you're right.

I believe the statistics as they come out. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Considering the daily increases in the # of overall cases and deaths, i don't think we're anywhere near the end of this, and its just now about to take off... I appreciate your optimism.

Wear a mask when you go out. If you don’t have an N95, use a makeshift mask. A scarf, a tshirt, whatever you have. If you can, fold it in a way that you can put a layer of vacuum cleaner bag material between the folded layers. Be diligent about what you touch. Only touch it if you plan on buying it. Take your mask off only when back in your car. Sanitize your hands. Bring stuff home. Take off your shoes before you enter. Set your groceries down. Wash your hands. Quarantine what you can of your groceries. Wipe down/wash what you can’t quarantine. Be smart about touching surfaces as you’re putting your groceries away... the fridge handle, the meat drawer handle, etc. Wipe those surfaces down when done. Wash your hands. Go enjoy the rest of your day.
Be smart. Be safe.







Wash your hands.

Cuomo just said they've developed a technique to turn BIPAP machines into ventilators. Depending on how complicated the procedure is, this could be huge.

I can agree with you.

our neighbor told us that the local Walmart had TP and tissues and paper towels when they were there just before talking to us.

Wife and I decided to stop on the way to work in the morning to pick some up for my mom. People were just pushing there way passed others that were politely awaiting someone else to get there's and move on. One woman walked right up, grabbed a package of TP, turned her head and sneezed, never covering up.

My wife about had a panic attack after the sneeze, she's been really emotionally affected by all this, especially not being able to visit/see our son in the last few weeks, so I grabbed our 1 pack (limit 1 per), and told my wife to go out the back of the aisle and lets head out. I told her to head out to the car, I would go pay.

Crazy times.....

j/c...

Everyone should be very careful. There is no guarantee against getting this. It could take nothing more than a careless cough.

I am hopeful that those who have been consistently exposed to this over the past few weeks will prove to now be immune to it. I have a bit of a vested interest in this, as my brother works for the Sheriff's department at the county jail, and my sister-in-law is a nurse. One of my nieces works in a nursing home.

May God watch over each and every one of us, but especially those who willingly put their own lives and health at risk to serve others. They are truly heroes.

GM,
I don't know what is going on either these numbers are not good.
And by the percentage of hospitalizations compared to cases, I would assume that there are many walking around infected that have not been tested.

We have 26% of all deaths in the state in our 3 counties 17.
They gave no info on Mahoning County other than they think it is all from community spread

Up thru yesterday;
State of Ohio
Cases 2,547
Hospitalization-679
ICU-222
Passed-65

Mahoning
Cases 177
Hospitalization-78

Trumbull
Cases 58
Hospitalization-28

Columbiana
Cases 19
Hospitalization-12

j/c...

Oh boy.

Better than N95, if you have a shop respirator, like you might wear for woodworking, with those pink P100 filters.... beats N95, though N95 are meant to be disposable. The upside, your respirator can be cleaned/wiped off and reused. Just don't touch your filters.... or, maybe bombard them with IR light?

More info:
https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/factsheets/respsars.html

Yep... I have a mask to wear though not sure if its n95 or not... I'll wear some old crappy shoes and I'll be using the garage as a DMZ... setting and leaving what we can in there for a few days, including clothing lol. We'll drive my car as well as I generally don't have to go anywhere. It will allow it to not have to be gone back in for awhile, whereas my wife has to go to work in hers.

My GF and I, both nurses, strip down in the garage. We have a table with a bleach solution squirt bottle and rag to set our phones and such on and clean them. Our clothes get quarantined there in the garage or immediately washed.
You can’t be overly cautious. This virus doesn’t mess around. Neither do I.

I just wanted to mention that Lysol makes a laundry sanitizer, if anyone wants an extra level of protection. (If you can find any, that is)

j/c...

What a great time to get out of going to someone's wedding!

WKSU
@WKSU
Husted reports new unemployment numbers:
-468,414 have filed in Ohio, which 100,000+ more than the total number of people who filed in 2019.

A record 6.6 million people in the U.S. have filed for unemployment.

https://twitter.com/WKSU/status/1245781268945612800

Globally, we are over 1 million confirmed cases, and over 50,000 deaths.

Sad milestones that were reach waaaaay too quickly following how long it took to hit 100k/10k.

j/c...

My wife just got back from Walmart fuming. A lady and her mother were in there letting her little girl of about 4 or 5 crawl and roll on the floor doing the worm, crawl on empty shelves and take items off shelves and put them back. They just gave a dirty look when my wife told the little girl to be careful because you don't know who's infected or what they touched, and that she could become very sick.

Do you have the number of days b/t each milestone?

1 million cases, 50,000 deaths, globally.

Globally there are 7.8 billion people, says google, and human lifespan is only 129 years.

Deaths:
5k - March 13
10k - March 19
25k - March 27
50k - April 2


Cases
100k - March 06
200k - March 17
300k - March 21
400k - March 24
500k - March 26
750k - March 30
1M - April 2

We are currently growing at about 75k cases and 5k deaths per day, worldwide. Those numbers are growing daily, though.

Sadly, I feel those numbers are not accurate. Not your fault, at all. I just have a hard time believing China's numbers.

Oh, we can absolutely guarantee ourselves that they are not 100% accurate.

These are simply CONFIRMED cases.
Heck, just look at how impossible it is to get tested here in Ohio.... you could be a healthcare worker with symptoms and STILL not get tested.

So, under no circumstances should anyone think these numbers are the complete picture. Heck, if anything, multiply the numbers by like five.
Even deaths cannot be taken as an absolute unless they test every body post-mortem.

In the end, though, these are the numbers we have based on the testing the world has done.

Thanks!

I just went to the store to buy some buns, and pick up some prescriptions. There was a woman in line, and her daughter was reaching out to grab everything, and her mother just put stuff back. Then she licked her finger and wiped something off her daughter's face, then put that hand right back on the cart.

It was noted i think on CNN a couple days ago what the WHO said that it was their guess that the actual cases outside of China were about 9 or 10 times reported cases

FWIW...

Cleve Fox 8 just listed the virus survival times on surfaces.

Metal, Glass, Ceramics.........5 Days

Plastics, Stainless Steel......2-3 days

Paper, Wood....................4-5 days

Cardboard......................1 Day

Aluminum.......................2-8 Hrs

Copper.........................4 Hours

Food...........................Doesn't seem to spread thru food and has not been found in water.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This site has the daily US numbers towards the bottom. You can see as the # of cases and # of deaths trend upward, and how quickly.

Gotta love our media. Maybe Brian Williams will cure this thing.

"CBS admits to using footage from Italy in NYC coronavirus report"

nypost.com

CBS News has admitted that alarming footage of an overflowing ward used during a report on the coronavirus crisis in Big Apple hospitals was actually shot in Italy.

CBS’ breakfast show, “This Morning,” used the footage of a packed ward last Wednesday just after saying the pandemic’s epicenter was “found right here” in New York.

The same footage had been aired earlier by Sky News — which correctly identified it as one of Europe’s “most hard-hit” hospitals located in Bergamo, Lombardy.

Did you perhaps mean UV light?

Thank you for sharing that.

Clem hope your well.. IR light is a Infrared Illuminator

Black light. It won't kill a virus, but they'll look cool when your high.

Can we trust ANY media anymore?

Sad thing is, the ones that screw up - sorry, have "an editing mistake" - are only making their own credibility sink.

Doing OK, DD
Stay safe, bro.
Come check out a concert when we get the "All clear," mkay?

j/c:

Reading all the new posts left me adjective happy.

Sobering
Alarming
Revolting
Concerning
Disgusting
Depressing

Here's a positive thought to everyone on a thread that only generates despair, sadness and doom.

Think of the population explosion 8, 9, 10, 11 months from now. They say it can happen after times like these.....



Comparatively speaking, populationwise vs populationwise from years past, percentagewise, we'll set the USA record for any 3 year span..... and Vegas will have odds on it.

Murica!!!

However, as a hedge, all bets are off if the 6 foot rule applies at home as well.

Nah. Nevermind. Book it!

Yes. I knew it wasn't right when I typed it, but my brain was drawing a blank and I was in the middle of doing something else.

It's an odd event that kills off the Baby Boomers and creates a baby boom.

True and the news making headlines of % of increased cases is mis-leading as well, as more and more tests are becoming available, hence the larger increases.

I have heard our neighbors discussing the increases like its the end of civilization, they are extrapolating those, to the point they seem to believe that by next week there will be 10m a day infected. and we'll all be infected or dead by the end of the month.

It would be nice to know the number of tests given and the positive and negative result numbers.

Well since there is no vaccine, we have to reach herd immunity to slow or stop this thing. I was reading the article below and it says you need 70% infected and recovered to do that. That's over 200 million people!

Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic

It's hard to predict things in a pandemic. The situation changes so much on a daily basis that everything you thought you knew last week is wrong by the end of the day. Things are changing so fast that even the solid certainties that we thought we were sure of – the reproductive rate, the symptoms of the infection, the key to making a good quarantine – are suspect and need to be re-evaluated.

But among all this uncertainty, I can say for sure that there is one thing that I would never have seen coming: the discussion about herd immunity. It is so out of the blue that the first time a journalist asked my opinion on whether it was effective for the coronavirus, I literally laughed out loud because I assumed they were joking.

And yet, here we are. Countless articles and think-pieces on the COVID-19 virus are making the argument that, albeit potentially risky, achieving herd immunity could be one response to our crisis. Many of them frame herd immunity as a preventive strategy that may stall the tidal wave of disease so many are predicting.

All of this is simply nonsense. Herd immunity without a vaccine is by definition not a preventative measure.

Let me explain.

Herd immunity is an epidemiological concept that describes the state where a population – usually of people – is sufficiently immune to a disease that the infection will not spread within that group. In other words, enough people can't get the disease – either through vaccination or natural immunity – that the people who are vulnerable are protected.

For example, let's think about mumps. Mumps is a very infectious disease that, while relatively benign, is very uncomfortable and sometimes causes nasty life-long complications. It's also vaccine-preventable, with a highly effective vaccine that has made the disease incredibly rare in the modern age.

Mumps has a basic reproductive rate (R0) of 10-12, which means that in a population which is entirely susceptible – meaning no one is immune to the virus – every person who is infected will pass the disease on to 10-12 people.

This means that without vaccination roughly 95 percent of the population gets infected over time. But even with something that is this infectious, there are still some people – 5 percent of the population – who don't get sick, because once everyone else is immune there's no one to catch the disease from.

We can increase that number by vaccinating, because vaccination makes people immune to infection, but it also stops infected people passing on the disease to everyone that they otherwise would. If we can get enough people immune to the disease, then it will stop spreading in the population.

And that's herd immunity, in a nutshell.

For mumps, you need 92 percent of the population to be immune for the disease to stop spreading entirely. This is what's known as the herd immunity threshold. COVID-19 is, fortunately, much less infectious than mumps, with an estimated R0 of roughly 3.

With this number, the proportion of people who need to be infected is lower but still high, sitting at around 70 percent of the entire population.

Which brings us to why herd immunity could never be considered a preventative measure.

If 70 percent of your population is infected with a disease, it is by definition not prevention. How can it be? Most of the people in your country are sick! And the hopeful nonsense that you can reach that 70 percent by just infecting young people is simply absurd. If only young people are immune, you'd have clusters of older people with no immunity at all, making it incredibly risky for anyone over a certain age to leave their house lest they get infected, forever.

It's also worth thinking about the repercussions of this disastrous scenario – the best estimates put COVID-19 infection fatality rate at around 0.5-1 percent. If 70 percent of an entire population gets sick, that means that between 0.35-0.7 percent of everyone in a country could die, which is a catastrophic outcome.

With something like 10 percent of all infections needing to be hospitalised, you'd also see an enormous number of people very sick, which has huge implications for the country as well.

The sad fact is that herd immunity just isn't a solution to our pandemic woes. Yes, it may eventually happen anyway, but hoping that it will save us all is just not realistic. The time to discuss herd immunity is when we have a vaccine developed, and not one second earlier, because at that point we will be able to really stop the epidemic in its tracks.

Until we have a vaccine, anyone talking about herd immunity as a preventative strategy for COVID-19 is simply wrong. Fortunately, there are other ways of preventing infections from spreading, which all boil down to avoiding people who are sick.

So stay home, stay safe, and practice physical distancing as much as possible.

Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz is an epidemiologist working in chronic disease in Sydney, Australia. He writes a regular health blog covering science communication, public health, and what that new study you've read about actually means.

Opinions expressed in this article don't necessarily reflect the views of ScienceAlert editorial staff.

https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

I have seen several STUPID people at walmart. I have got there with the other old geezers before 6 am, and watched several of them grab carts outside the store while standing in line with their dirty paws all over the carts. Then they run to the wipes inside the store to wipe down the top of the carts handle. HELLO you didn't wipe the underside or any other part of the cart, plus your hands have already been all over the cart while standing in line (plus various other body parts, arms, hips, stomachs)

Kroger had two employees doing nothing but spraying carts with disinfectant yesterday. They wiped the handles down then sprayed the cart.

Yup. Herd immunity is definitely not a strategy; it's an end-game. Vaccines are definitely not likely to be available rapidly enough to help us get there, so we'll end up getting there the old fashioned way. The one and only goal is to get there in a way that doesn't completely crush our healthcare system.

And unlike what we're being told by some, it looks like we may be losing that battle.

If that requires 70 percent of the population to eventually become infected and a .3% fatality rate in 70% of 325 million people is 682,500 deaths... how are they coming up with 100-200K? And how can this possible be over in a couple of months with a 70% infection rate required for the vulnerable to be relatively safe? Things are not adding up and that makes me suspicious as hell...

I won't pretend to actually know the answer to any of that, but maybe they are banking on treatments coming available, or perhaps they are using a number other than .3%, or perhaps it is simply a case where there are too many unknowns and too much variability to nail down a specific range with certainty?

I do recall Dr. Fauci saying that he couldn't be more specific than 100,000 to 200,000; as in, there was no way of knowing which it would be closer to, and he was described as being a VERY PRECISE man.

Next door neighbor was rushed to the hospital 2 days ago.

Spoke with his wife, he tested positive.

I hear footsteps.

The U.S. is too large for that to be universally applied.
I think that there will be areas where we absolutely win the battle and plenty of areas where we lose. Some will lose the battle more epically than others.

NYC, Detroit, Louisiana... these places are not doing well. Ohio, as a whole, is actually doing rather well.... but, not only is it still early, but how long can we really keep this up?

I hope you spoke with her from a distance of more than 6 feet!

Stay safe. Stay away from peopl.

I must disagree with you. Many rural areas have seen local hospitals close and I have seen several reports of rural hospitals being overwhelmed already.

I won't clutter the thread with all of the sources I've seen that address this concern. But just let me say that when it hits rural areas even harder, and I think we both agree that it will, we will all see just how unprepared the system is to handle it.

j/c...

Looks like Gov. DeWine's restrictions are working to flatten the curve and this is getting pushed out even further now. I'll be curious to see what Dr. Acton says today. I know they have been using both the Cleveland Clinic and Ohio State's Wexner Medical Center for models.

A friend of mine is a rural doc east of Cleveland and she is in training classes today to learn how to doe-sign death certs by the thousands, if needed, so yeah, it is a very real possibility.

Like I said, though, it will vary from area to area, and so far Ohio is generally doing pretty well.

That may be the disconnect here. I was speaking in general terms and not Ohio specifically.

Here's an interesting article that models spread and flattening the curve using data when certain locales issued stay at home orders and people severely reduced traveling around in their community.

Looking at this. The Southeast is going to get hit hard.

Where Americans Didn't Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread

Our Publix had someone handing out carts after they wiped them down.

What impressed me, was not only was he spraying his rag between each cart cleaning, he was wiping the handle very well, top and bottom, along with the top edge of the basket. He also had a stack of rags, and seemed to be changing out the rag every few carts.

He did this while standing behind a hand sanitizer pump to encourage people to use it before taking a cart.

Then I noticed people in every aisle wiping down shelves and racks and everything. Very impressed.

Where I noticed they failed was their cashier screens. They had the plexiglass barriers, but it was only right in front of the cashiers register, The credit card pin pad is off to the side a bit and where most people stand and wait while their items are being scanned. The plexiglass did not cover that far.

j/c...

Horrible.

France hitting four-digit deaths for the second day in a row with over 1300 yesterday and over 1100 today (last 24 hours). They also now have more critical cases than any other nation despite lagging behind in total case count at under 65,000.

Italy looks like it has leveled off. It isn't growing exponentially any longer, but the number of daily cases and deaths is is holding consistent at about 4500 new cases and about 700-800 deaths each day. They seem to have peaked at about 900+ deaths in a day; hopefully this continues and we don't see another upswing as it spreads/grows in the areas outside Lombardy. Their lockdown might actually be letting them get a handle on things... or, at least keep it from being a runaway engine.

Switzerland's number of cases/1M pop has risen to be second only to Spain, who is also number 2 in total Serious/Critical cases behind France.

This virus and these posts/threads always bring me back to election day, 1976. Every time I read em.

After my father passed away(brain cancer) in 1973, my mother straight up asked me(16yo) and my twin 13.5yo sisters "I'm moving to Florida, where you kids moving to"?

5 days later.....gone.

My sisters were taken in by my aunt and uncle(mothers side). My grandparents(fathers side) didn't know this and after I being homeless for a few(3-4 days) they found out. I moved in with them.

Long story that happened long long ago that I've forgotten about. Or at least.....try not to think about.

My grandfather retired from GE Nela Pk after 35-40 years. Outta boredom he picked up a part time job as an evening watchman(4p-12a), Picker X-Ray. 2-3 days a week. They lived close(15min drive). Wickliffe.

On election day 1976 we(my first time) went and voted and as usual, he left for work at 3:30ish. After his shift was supposed to end and him supposed to be arriving home(12:15a-ish), no grandpa. Waited till 12:30-1a and I called Picker X-Ray on if he was still there.

Guy on the phone: "Who? "OH, YOU MEAN THE GUY THAT JUST HAD THE HEART ATTACK".



Found out where the ambulance took him. Richmond Heights Hospital which was close. My grandmother and I, in a small room 15 feet outside of the Emergency room, listened to the Emergency Department working on him.

Loudly talking/yelling..."HANG IN THERE MR. P. HANG IN THERE!!!

After 15 mins of silence....we were notified of him dying.

No heart attack.

Pulmonary Adema. Lungs filled up with fluid.

Swine Flu complication...

To all.....please be smart/stay safe.

Man, that is such a sad, sad story.

I will bet you grew up strong and able to stand on your own two feet during hard times.

For those that want a laugh and are familiar with Samuel L. Jackson's rendition of a certain bedtime story, he put out another youtube video of a "stay at home verson". Lots of language ala SLJ, but it should be easy enough to search for on youtube.

Their offshoot Fry's is doing the same thing in southern Arizona. A good thing to see.

We had a near by Kroger that had two employees that were infected with the virus and had been at work while sick. Rather than close the store for a cleaning after learning of this, they left the store open, with customers inside while doing the cleaning.

2 Nashville Kroger employees test positive for COVID-19

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/2-bellevue-kroger-employees-test-positive-for-covid-19

Damn, that's awful. The whole story.

Long time ago man. Long long long time ago.

Moral of the story? Hug the people you love tonight. And again tomorrow night, and, and, etc, etc.

Like everything, you never know.....until you do.

Ya know 40, deep down, it's prob why in my first 34 years in the workforce I never missed a day of work. Never.

Heck. In HS I missed 44 days of school my senior year. Why? Skipped school and went into work...hoping....

I'm positive they(HS) passed/graduated me cause of my circumstances. They knew.

Work: "Whaddya doin here. Aren't you supposed to be in school?"

Me: "Well ,.....yea"....

Work: "Ok kid, punch in."

Then the knee replacements, the failed back surg's, cancer, etc, etc started kicking in.

I've looked/searched on wherever(Facebook, etc) for the people that knew and helped me out. Just wanna thank em.

It's virtually impossible to find anyone from 45 years ago. Nada.

If it wasn't for the Pandemic Plague, I would be proud to shake your hand Sir.

There is another man on here I respect like this from the way he lead his life. He goes by Arch. Maybe you heard of him.

My wife got a call this morning about another mutual friend that she was supposed to go out to dinner with about 3 weeks or so ago.
This woman is probably in her late 40's early 50's and does have a pre-existing condition-high blood pressure and i think low oxygen levels

But her mutual friend cancelled the dinner cause she wasn't feeling good. She was also planning for her daughters wedding and had people over the house during the weekend and just thought she was getting a cold. She had felt like that for 2 or 3 days with a cough. Went on the telemed with Cleveland Clinic because she wanted to be tested for COVID cause she wasn't feeling any better. They told her no they couldn't test her, she isn't bad enough.

They told her to take it easy and told her to take something.

The very next day she had unreal chest pressure, shortness of breath, fever, etc-she called back the same number and they told her to get to the hospital as soon as she can.

She said that she was in the hospital for 8 days. She thought she was going to die. She said that it was like having a cold, bronchitis, and pneumonia all at the same time and then multiplying it by 100. And she was never bad enough to be put on a ventilator, although she felt she had to be close-she really thought she was going to die. She has never felt pain like this.

What this lady said is whatever you have to do to not get this, do it. The don't have the damn test, they are not giving the damn test and they really don't how to treat it or why it is so much worse in some people vs others.

At about the 6th day she was in pretty bad shape and they treated her with something, she don't know what it was-she said it might have been hydrocloronque (sp) or something else-all she knows is within a couple days she was feeling alot better and was ready to go home.

She still is having shortness of breath but feels much better, cause she couldn't have felt any worse.

Well that treatment is hopeful.

We all just need to hang in there until they find more treatments and eventually a vaccine.

Until then its a roll of the dice.

Stay safe all.

I hope this makes you feel better.

I was talking to my wife about your story because it really struck an emotional nerve. I told her it was such a sad story on so many levels. Your dad, your mom, your sisters, and your gramps. Damn man!

Then I told her what a great guy you are. I told her how you PM me for football advice and how positive you always are. I told her what a good-natured soul you have. I told her how there are so many keyboard warriors on here who love insulting others, and then there is a guy like you, who has reasons to perhaps be bitter.......and you never display any of those negative qualities.

Kudos to you, bro. You're one hell of a man! And I mean that from the bottom of my heart!

CDC Now Recommends Americans Voluntarily Wear Cloth Masks In Public : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus...masks-in-public

President Trump said Friday the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now recommends that people wear cloth or fabric face coverings, which can be made at home, when entering public spaces such as grocery stores and public transit stations. It is mainly to prevent those people who have the virus — and might not know it — from spreading the infection to others.

The guidelines do not give many details about coverings beyond: "cloth face coverings fashioned from household items or made at home from common materials at low cost can be used as an additional, voluntary public health measure."

Trump emphasized that wearing masks in public is voluntary and said he will not be doing so.

U.S. health authorities had discouraged healthy Americans from wearing facial coverings for weeks, saying they were likely to do more harm than good in the fight against the coronavirus — but now, as researchers have learned more about how the highly contagious virus spreads, officials have changed their recommendations.

U.S. health authorities have long maintained that face masks should be reserved only for medical professionals and patients suffering from COVID-19, the deadly disease caused by the coronavirus. The CDC had based this recommendation on the fact that such coverings offer little protection for wearers, and the need to conserve the country's alarmingly sparse supplies of personal protective equipment.

Still, as the virus spread to every state in the U.S., it has become clear that people can contract and spread the virus without showing symptoms, rendering it difficult — if not impossible — to distinguish healthy from infected individuals without a formal test. So, it may protect other people who come into contact with the unknowing individual.

And the mask need not be professional-grade to offer some benefit. In fact, officials say it probably shouldn't be: The CDC recommends constructing your own cloth mask, so as to help ensure that doctors and nurses can obtain access to medical-grade surgical or N95 masks amid a widespread shortage of supplies.

With this announcement, the U.S. is following the lead of a number of other countries that have been urging — or outright ordering — their residents to don masks in public. The expanding list includes China and South Korea, where officials have even taken the step of distributing masks.

And while the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control continues to discourage the use of face masks, some European countries, such as Austria and the Czech Republic, have told their residents to cover up their mouths and noses before entering a store.

This week, the mayors of Los Angeles and New York City also urged residents to do the same.

Tks Vers....

In life, all people, including people on these forums/threads have had it better than me, the same as me, or worse than me. Mine is just one story of millions of stories.

The just put it in the correct threads.

I didn't see this posted yet.

My wife, a Cleve Clinic RN, mentioned something about this to me a day or 3 ago. She heard there was a meeting about it.

A possible 2.2 million square foot temporary hospital.

https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/i-x-ce...ces-tell-fox-8/

CLEVELAND (WJW) -- The I-X Center is being evaluated to serve as a possible site for an alternate medical facility amid the coronavirus pandemic, sources tell FOX 8.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Ohio National Guard were at the center Monday morning and planned to evaluate at least three sites in Northeast Ohio.

Hospital capacity is expected to be stretched to its limits and temporary hospitals have already been set up in other states, including New York.

The I-X Center is now available, as planned shows have been canceled due to state orders limiting large gatherings.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District said it has deployed field assessment teams to evaluate facilities in Ohio, New York and Pennsylvania for possible conversion into alternate care facilities. It said personnel from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and state and local emergency management and medical personnel are also taking part in initial and in-depth site assessments at multiple locations determined by state leaders.

“We have a diverse, multi-disciplined workforce that can cover every facet of medical facility construction. We’re experienced in it,” said U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District Chief of Operations Josh Feldmann.

He said the Army Corps is evaluating infrastructure for use as a temporary hospital, including electricity, sewer and HVAC capabilities.

“What were looking for mostly is space and usable space, usable for a medical facility,” Feldmann said.

Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton said Monday that the state wants to double healthcare capacity, and convention center facilities, such as the I-X Center, may be used to treat mildly ill patients.

Feldmann said state leaders will decide on sites, and the Army Corps will oversee construction by contractors. It will be up to the state to supply and staff facilities. Construction may be completed within weeks, according to Feldmann.

“Speed is of the essence here. We're trying to get out in front of the curve, in front of the peak, so these facilities are in place for whatever the state decides they wants to use them for,” Feldmann said.

The Ohio National Guard said it is assisting in the search for facilities.

"The Ohio National Guard is assisting the Ohio Department of Health and Ohio Emergency Management Agency to identify potential sites for alternate medical facilities, and you may see Guard personnel visiting some of those sites," Ohio National Guard Public Information Officer Stephanie Beougher said in a statement provided to FOX 8.

"The National Guard is supporting the governor and the state of Ohio in a proactive and united whole of government approach to expanding its medical capacity in anticipation of the projected COVID-19 outbreak peak."

A spokesperson for the Ohio Department of Health said no decision has been made on alternate sites, and all options are still on the table.

Below is the IX Center website.

IX Center
http://www.ixcenter.com/about/

jc

Want to see what google does with all the phone data they track? Some interesting data.

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

Uses location data collected from products such as google maps to track where people have been and shows the trends since covd19 policies have been put in place.

Here's the link for Ohio (pdf)

The first link has list of countries and USA is broken down by state.

J/C

I’m not sure if I’ll be wearing a mask (I don’t really go out besides to exercise alone or a quick store trip) ... but it’ll be interesting to see if their recommendation changes in a few days

That is interesting to see, but also disturbing to see just how easily so many people can be tracked in detail.

Well, this disease just got confirmed personal for me. A friend of mine, who was also my partner in a couple of Master's Crossfit competitions last year, was just put in ICU on a ventilator at Fairview Hospital last night.

48 years old, crazy strong and healthy with lungs and cardio capacity most people can barely fathom... and it has him. He apparently started to feel I'll on 24 March, visited the ER on 29 March. Tested positive and was immediately hospitalized on 30 March. He is getting the vitamin C, Z-pak, and hydroxychloroquine, but no response, yet.

Oh boy. So sorry to hear this. To be in that good of cv shape and still fall prey to the virus. Prayers that his fitness will help him recover.

Sorry to hear that Purp, I hope he pulls through.

Hope all goes well Purp. Prayers from here.

Sorry to hear this about your friend. Sadly it just goes to show that when it comes down to it, you never know who can get hit hard by this thing.

That was very interesting article in the NYT. Here are a couple other graphs from that article that show travels rates and how it correlates to spread rate. Doesn't look good for the south.

*The date cutoff is also March 27th in the first image.




https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronavirus-social-distancing.html

My heart and prayers go out to him, his family, you, and all the rest of his friends. None of us will ever be able to figure out why some healthy people have died or become very sick from this virus while others who are in bad health survive, or don't get infected. For Christians I can say it's gods will. For non Christians I can only shrug my shoulders and weep for you all

He died last night.

Sorry to hear that 40. Best wishes to his family moving forward.

Dammit. I am sorry to hear that

Yep, went pretty fast.

Good luck with your pal Purp.

Sorry 40

Man, sorry to all for the truly sad stories. Everybody take care as best you can.

Sorry 40 ... condolences

Sorry bro.

There is a logical reason for this, you know. Spring is a lot further along in the South. Once the North warms up a bit more yall be driving around like fools also.

So very sorry 40

Sorry Purp, hope he pulls through

So sorry Purp , hope he pulls through .. Condolences 40 !

Sorry to hear that 40.

Hits home a little harder when it's someone's(on here) neighbor.

Sorry to hear of this. There are likely more "just got real" moments coming for all of us.

An ex co worker of mine - well, her daughter and grand daughter's doctor was just recently diagnosed with covid. The grand daughter had just recently been to him for a physical.

He's now hospitalized, on a vent, and not doing well. The daughter and grand daughter, as well as the husband and 2 other kids, are now quarantined for 14 days. NO leaving the house.

I pray for all of the victims, and their families. I pray God blesses all (and their families) with healing by His divine grace.

I think I'm just going to do my shopping at mom n pop places. Support small business, plus fewer people there so less chance of infection.

If everyone did that, our country's economy would be fine

I am sorry to hear that as well.

You know, I thought this was a great idea. Then I realized I don't have a mom and pop type grocery/convenience store anywhere around here.

edit: Did some searching and found one 10 mi away. I know there are a few people from my area on here. It's Jack's Superette in Curtice. I've actually been in there before.

Maybe try ethnic markets also. There are Mexican markets here that have meat and food.

The only problem w/the Mom and Pop stores is I doubt they can clean/sterilize their stores like the bigger stores do.

Where the wife works, a large grocery store in a very big chain, they have plexiglass barriers between the cashiers and customers.

They still accept cash (for now) but prefer debit/credit cards.

They sanitize the debit machine and conveyor belt after every customer. They have employees at the front entrance: one to stop people and make them wait until a customer leaves.

The second store employee wipes all the carts.

Being on the outer edges of North America and with a small population, we saw the crap hitting the fan in the large populated areas, and got on top of it - if we in fact are on top of it. That’s good, and it’s also good that the police are cracking down on those not social-distancing.. this isn’t something to take lightly.

The number of positives is climbing here but not yet out of control.

Other than a couple butcher shops we don't have any of those. And one of the butcher shops is sketchy as hell.

Good point Vers. I know some local restaurants are attempting take out/delivery still ... but they dont have the capability to make you feel as clean

C'mon man? I say Sketchy, Smetchy!!!

In the 1930's, 40's, 50's my grandparents lived on Ivanhoe off E 152nd street in Cleve. There was a butcher store that my grandfather absolutely swore by. He thought their fresh ground Italian sausage was the best.

After they moved to Wickliffe he always drove down to E 152nd just for the sausage. "The best" in his opinion was worth the weekly 15-20 min drive.

EVEN AFTER THEY SHUT IT DOWN it down in the mid to late 50's when it was found out the butcher shop was so infested with rats that at times they'd fall into the grinder.

"THAT'S PROBABLY WHAT MADE IT SO GOOD"!!! he would blurt out.

Heard that story at least once a year till he passed away in 76.

So I challenge you. Give those butcher shops a chance.

JC

I found out last night that a previous girlfriend is in pretty critical condition with Covid. Had not talked with her in months and haven’t seen her in longer, but I guess she has severe lung issues and not doing well. She’s in her mid 20s

It's all just stats and statistics till you know someone or you know someone that knows someone that, etc, etc.

A quick prayer from here D4.

Prayers on the way for her.

j/c...

GC.
Testing, the restrictions on testing, that you have to be symptomatic:
Taking peoples tempertures to see if they have a fever:

and the back and forth on masks,

are 3 things that to this point could have been addressed differently,
I don't understand the complexity of testing but our state/feds, apparantly wasn't "out in front", not in mass testing.

it is still not allowed until you are referred first, as I understand.

j/c...

RIP Tom and I am praying for his Family ...

I do use the other one for nice steaks a couple times a year but not on the regular. And the sketchy one, well there is just no way in hell I'm eating that.

On a side note, my wife ran to Walmart to grab a couple things today and had to wait in line to get in. She said it almost felt empty customer wise once you got in.

Dang, tough news about Tom Dempsey as well

Boris Johnson hospitalized days after contracting coronavirus.

Off to the hospital for the British Prime Minister.

Honestly at this point I'm kind of put off or sick of hearing about infections or death numbers. I mean I get that someone has to know the numbers for planning and such but okay this number are sick, this number died. What can be done about it? Especially for the dead people, nothing.


I feel most of the actual numbers are pointless to the general population unless to convey the seriousness or effect of the virus. Other than that maybe government officials can do something based on them but they don't really provide anything useful to be done.

I will add this request to my growing list for prayers and requests for prayers.

Hope you are well and all dawgs as well.

Pray up!

Tiger at Bronx Zoo tests positive for COVID-19

NEW YORK (AP) — A tiger at the Bronx Zoo has tested positive for the new coronavirus, in what is believed to be the first known infection in an animal in the U.S. or a tiger anywhere, federal officials and the zoo said Sunday.

The 4-year-old Malayan tiger, and six other tigers and lions that have also fallen ill, are believed to have been infected by a zoo employee, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said. The first animal started showing symptoms March 27, and all are expected to recover, said the zoo, which has been closed to the public since March 16.

“We tested the cat out of an abundance of caution" and aim to "contribute to the world’s continuing understanding of this novel coronavirus,” said Dr. Paul Calle, the zoo's chief veterinarian.

The finding raises new questions about transmission of the virus in animals. The USDA says there are no known cases of the virus in U.S. pets or livestock.

“It’s important to assure pet owners and animal owners that at this time there isn’t any evidence that they can spread the virus,” said Dr. Jane Rooney, a veterinarian and a USDA official.

The coronavirus outbreaks around the world are driven by person-to-person transmission, experts say.

There have been reports of a small number of pets outside the United States becoming infected after close contact with contagious people, including a Hong Kong dog that tested positive for a low level of the pathogen in February and early March. Hong Kong agriculture authorities concluded that pet dogs and cats couldn’t pass the virus to human beings but could test positive if exposed by their owners.

Some researchers have been trying to understand the susceptibility of different animal species to the virus, and to determine how it spreads among animals, according to the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health.

For most people, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as a fever and cough that clear up in two to three weeks. For some, especially older adults and people, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia, and can be fatal.

https://www.10tv.com/article/tiger-bronx-zoo-tests-positive-covid-19-2020-apr

I was under the assumption animals were immune ... maybe its a new strand?

The general consensus was that animals cannot get sick, but there have been two dogs and one cat in Hong Kong that have tested positive, too. Though, the dogs were a "weak positive" and it was thought that they simply had the virus on/in them, but not replicating/infecting them.


What I want to know is this: If *We, The People* cannot get tested, why the Hell is a freaking cat getting tested???

Yeah, let's stay ignorant and carry on as if nothing is going on.

We The People, pay to see the cat. The cat brings in more revenue.

One of my employees, who is also da good friend, is in the ER w suspected covid.... she has severe pulmonary fibrosis and as soon as this thing hit she went on quarantine.... praying thwt she's gets through this....last I talked to her (few days ago) she was terrified...

Damn, that sucks

She's not in a good way to fight this. Heck, she's not in a good way to even be in an ER these days

I feel I should update this. Although things looked very dire, the doc has made great improvement. No word yet on the people I know. No illness, but still under quarantine - mandatory.

That's sad, jay.

I kinda understand your view. The numbers have all gotten to the point where they're almost unrelatable now, and there's so many different areas it's nearly impossible to really track them or pay attention on a level that gives any sort of deeper understanding about who/what is developing.

Early on in the outbreak, it was much easier. We could clearly see the spread, we could measure growth at a glance. Now, there's just too much data everywhere. It's partly why I've started to look more at the per capita data.

As an example, the US has the most cases, but we also have five times the population of Italy. When you view it per capita, you see that Italy still has it twice as bad as us, and Spain has almost three times as many. When you look at deaths per capita, both of them have roughly nine times as many deaths.... so, it looks bad if you watch our news, but overall we're still doing pretty well.

That said, there are still many miles to go before this sleeps, and as new regions bloom, the numbers will look much different.

and to give my own update: My buddy that is in ICU improved a bit overnight, last I heard. He was originally on 100% oxygen, but has since been weened down to only 40%, so that is fantastic improvement.

Can I double like this post. ^

Thanks to the Doctors, Nurses, Health care workers and truck drivers and grocery store worers.
Thanks to the million servers all across the land who are faced with sudden unemployment and tons of businesses that may close and not reopen.

They are saying the next 10 days will be the worst days of most of our lives. That would have to be pretty damn bad.

I’m anticipating a very rough week ahead ... gotta get thru mid April IMO

Thanks for the update. More info/data is always better than less, when it comes to stuff like this.

Your story shows us all why social distancing is so crucially important: People who have access to vents stand a good chance of recovery/survival. The more we slow the rate of spread, the better chance we have of treating all who need hospital services.

As you know from my previous posts, my best bro is USAF/ret. Full bird Colonel. Medical Services. His post career career: Head of Pharm Services at the Dayton VA. Dude's a badass who has seen service in Iraq, Afstan, Libya, and countless other far-flung posts. He's seen medical triage outposts in 3rd world countries that would break your heart... all of which, he's always been keen to share with me. We don't hide s# from each other. My life pales in comparison to his.

A conversation I had with him 6 weeks ago was very telling: it was the first time- the very first time I have ever heard him choke on his words, and be forced to catch his breath before continuing.

He said: "This is gonna be bad, Bobby. Really, really bad. It's gonna touch you and me- and everyone we've ever known. The numbers aren't linear... they're exponential. I know things that
I wish I didn't. We can't stop these numbers. We lost that chance in January. Our best bet is to go into lockdown, and flatten the curve."

Yes... in that convo, I got a tutorial about "The Curve" ...1.5 months ahead of news agencies informing the rest of us.

Apparently, this illness can be successfully fought if gear availability can equal need. That's what Mark meant when he talked about 'flattening the curve.'

Is your son OK?
I know that he's a Front Line Soldier.

I hope that your friends are faring well, too.


____________________

As for my son, so far, so good. Spoke with him a few days ago.

Imo it's def to convey the seriousness. However, in reality it's also not that hard to, for the most part, "tune out" if one wanted to.

No doubt the constant bombardment of the news on this is "over the top" but there were times when news and medicine weren't what they were today.

In 1976 at age 19 I thought all the, although minimal compared to today, news on The Swine Flu was rediculous. Then my grandfather died from it.

Below is an article on a time when news, medicine and travel as we know it weren't as prevalent and/or available to the masses. Mine and many of our grandparents went thru it. They most prob would have "yearned" for as much "over the top" info as we have available today.

Not being cocky man. I, as you are.... am just living in a real world.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.

1918 Pandemic Video

Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic. While the 1918 H1N1 virus has been synthesized and evaluated, the properties that made it so devastating are not well understood. With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections that can be associated with influenza infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly.

The 1918 H1N1 flu virus caused the deadliest pandemic of the 20th century. To better understand this deadly virus, an expert group of researchers and virus hunters set out to search for the lost 1918 virus, sequence its genome, recreate the virus in a highly safe and regulated laboratory setting at CDC, and ultimately study its secrets to better prepare for future pandemics.

Patients waiting on lawns to be seen, bodies stacked like firewood.
Could happen, not sure it's happening.

Next 10 days, rapdid expansion of cases for several different geographical areas.

USA made great progress from March 26-April 3, and the desperation peaked on the night of March 29th-30th, imo.

From this point on gotta let it happen. However it turns out.

That's part of the problem with the media hype.

There are some that see media hype, and blow it off as the media being the media, then you have the other side where it is causing some to panic.

Then there's people like me in the middle, I tune in for 1 30 min show to get caught up, then turn it off. It's depressing, it's repetitive, and it sensationalized beyond need.

I may start tuning in only every couple days, it has gotten to the point where they are showing the same clips over and over for days.

I get more facts and straight up answers online anyway.

I have contacts in supply from Cincinnati and Columbus hospitals all reporting in as slow at the moment. Many furloughed as surgeries postponed and specialties are closed. Hopefully Ohios reaction limits our damage. Still early. Stay tough.

I take what news commentators say with a grain of salt no matter the source. However, when it comes to listening to the scientists, governors, the medical professionals on the front lines and infectious disease doctors, I want to hear all I can find.

I remember all too well a time when information like that was impossible to find. I also watch the daily death count closely. The reason for that is I'm hoping to see when the peak is and looking for the curve to stop its increase, flatten out and begin to decline.

I'm quite sure what's right for me certainly isn't right for everyone. But I'm not a panic type person for the most part. I do hold a great deal of compassion for those on the front lines and know many of them.

I grew up in the 70's and know what having little information feels like. I know what it means to have so many questions about something that concerns me left unanswered. That situation no longer exists and I take advantage of it any way I can.

j/c...

Good cause to donate to.

I'm not paralyzed by fear and I listen to the news all the time. But I listen more because I don't trust the government or the media and would like to piece together the truth as much as possible. And I like to know what stupid crap Trump does before it hits me.

j/c...

Neat story about Rolle ... i remember him transitioning to a doctor career

j/c...

I would just like to thank you for all of the updates you are posting.

I'm from Miami county and find it odd how such a rural county has so many more deaths than a neighboring county, Montgomery, where places like Dayton, Kettering and Huber Heights are located.

So for the last few days I've been searching my shop for my N95 masks. I found my dust masks. I found my cloth face masks. BUT I had 5 or more packs of N95 masks that I got for nothing or next to it a couple years ago that I thought were in my cabinet with the others.

After three days of me grumbling that I can't find them, my wife finally tells me she gave them away to my son when he started his new job last year... Apparently they supply masks where he works but he didn't like theirs as much as mine... fml

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson rushed to the ICU.



UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in intensive care after coronavirus condition ‘worsened’

This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/uk-prime...n-worsened.html

I just saw this. Yesterday they were saying he went to the hospital purely as a preventative measure. But I knew better.

So are the numbers down today in OH

No. New confirmed cases and deaths are higher today than yesterday.

407 new cases, 23 deaths.

4450 and 142 total, respectively.
We're starting the process where the acceleration is noticeable.

I truly hope the new models are correct and we peak at only 70 or so deaths per day.

Update on my buddy: still in ICU, still sedated, still on 40% O2, but his kidneys are no longer working right, so they've got him on increased fluids and and saline to try to kick-start them.

Not great news Purp. I'm pulling for him.

Thanks ... best luck to your buddy

Best of luck to your friend, Purp.

Here is potential encouraging news. Click on the link to see the slides.

So... are you taking everything in the divorce?

lol... I'll probably keep her at this point.

She has done this several times over the years. I don't use something actively it's up for grabs and our son knows it. When he was younger and had first moved out on his own they would grocery shop in my cabinets and freezer. And until he got a decent job about 75% of his tools came out of my shop... So I'm used to it. But with the situation she was a little hesitant to tell me what happened.

j/c...

What I'm afraid is going to happen is that we're going to start coming out the other side of this and folks will begin to clamor over how we "totally overreacted", "this thing wasn't that bad", and when it flares back up we're not going to take as severe a stance and we're going to get crushed.

It wouldn't surprise me. I hope your friend gets better. He certainly isn't what one would consider a typical candidate for this serious of a case. The only thing I think that may be good to come from it is a cautionary tale for those who think, "It can't happen to me".

Purp,
But also if you look at flattening the curve, the hospitals will not get completely over run, but the curve will get elongated. And if people get a false sense of security on a dip, we will have a chance to spike back up until we get a vaccine or other measure to deal with this.

I posted the first couple of paragraphs of an article on CNN that now predicts less hospitalizations and about 82,000 deaths-If we keep business and schools closed until August. I don't think there is a chance of this.

The link to the rest of the story is here

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/ihme-updated-covid19-model/index.html


Adjusted coronavirus model predicts fewer people in US will need hospitals, but 82,000 will still die by August
By Arman Azad, CNN

Updated 7:27 AM ET, Tue April 7, 2020
yolanda harrison fabric of america

(CNN)An influential model tracking the coronavirus pandemic in the United States now predicts that fewer people will die and fewer hospital beds will be needed compared to its estimates from last week.

As of Monday, the model predicted the virus will kill 81,766 people in the United States over the next four months, with just under 141,000 hospital beds being needed. That's about 12,000 fewer deaths -- and 121,000 fewer hospital beds -- than the model estimated on Thursday.
A "massive infusion of new data" led to the adjustments, according to the model's maker, Dr. Christopher Murray, who serves as director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine.

Additional data on the pandemic's trajectory -- in the United States and around the world -- has always been expected, along with methodological changes to fine-tune the predictions. And from the start, researchers at IHME, who built the model, have emphasized that it would change.
But the newest version of the model underscores just how important social distancing continues to be: It assumes that those measures -- such as closing schools and businesses -- will continue until August, and it still predicts tens of thousands of deaths.
While the analysis has been repeatedly cited by Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House's coronavirus response coordinator, the administration's current guidelines only recommend social distancing through April 30.

They can't accurately predict any of this.

The numbers they have are only those that got tested, and those tested only got tested because they showed symptoms and met a health profile necessary.

There are probably 10-20x that number of people infected than what is being reported, and if your presume those that were infected and recovered without testing are no longer a carrier. That would severely alter the numbers when calculating predictions.

Not that predicting these things to better prepare ourselves is a bad thing, but often these "models" are used to stir up fear in the media.

The fact your prolly right really is a shame ... even though over 10,000 people we share this country with will have died from this some will say we overreacted ... not sure how when 10k+ of us are killed by it how we overacted but that’s just me ...

Here’s to hoping “they” have the chance to rip us for overreacting ...

That hospital bed number must be incorrect.

j/c...

I like this move!

My father-in-law was tested this morning and we're supposed to have results back tonight/early tomorrow. He's going through radiation right now, and got to the point he couldn't eat and was having a hard time breathing. He went to the hospital last night for that. This morning he had a 103.9 fever and was basically displaying all the symptoms of someone who has covid19. They have him on oxygen and an IV. He does feel better, but we're awaiting results. They see a spot in his lungs that could be a sign of an infection.

Prayers and hoping for the best.

I wish you all the best. Hope he pulls through.

I hope it's negative and is easily treatable.

So sorry. I'm praying that he makes it through this.

I just want to say that I thank God every time I open this forum and see that no one has responded to the "People we've lost" thread. I pray that it continues to be an unused thread.

Prayers from here YTBR.

j/c...

Sarah Buduson
@SarahBuduson
"We're a little flatter in our curve... but we can't become complacent," - @DrAmyActon
on a model showing how we're stretching out the #Ohio peak while we #FlattenTheCurve on #COVID19
https://twitter.com/SarahBuduson/status/1247596061830656000

Some possibly good news from Europe.

It looks like Italy and Spain both may have peaked on new cases. They're still getting plenty each day, and while Spain just dipped below 4,000 for the first time, Italy has been there for the past few days.

Deaths are still up there with both, but that stat kinda lags behind new cases. Perhaps in a couple of weeks, they might actually begin to emerge from the situation where they don't have adequate equipment.



On the down side is France. 1400+ deaths in the last day and more than 11,000 new cases. Despite having a comparable population to Italy, they are on pace to blow right past them in terms of total cases and deaths.... and Italy is already over 17,000 deaths.

Germany is still doing remarkably well and is comparatively unscathed despite having over 100k cases.

j/c:



Only two?!

That's Busch league.

J/C

https://www.yahoo.com/news/says-no-healthy-people-wear-184300796.html

Headline: WHO says there is no need for healthy people to wear face masks, days after the CDC told all Americans to cover their faces



From the article:




So, do we, or don't we? CDC says one thing, WHO says a different thing. Then we're told that masks won't, in the greater community, provide any protection against the virus, but the medical people need to wear them for protection....

We're in a state of who the heck knows WHAT to do?

That's a good point Arch. I think that wearing facemasks will be one of the adjustments we are asked to make as restrictions are lifted. Come May 1, I think many people will be told to get back to work, but wear facemasks and keep distance as much as possible. We won't have school or huge public gatherings this summer, but people will need to get back to work at some point.

The last couple days have brought glimmers of hope.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/cdc-director-downplays-coronavirus-models-says-death-toll-033800213.html

Giant 64 oz. cups!

"Yes, I'd like one chicken quesadilla dinner and two pitchers of margaritas, one taco dinner and two pitchers of margaritas, once bean burrito and two pitchers of margaritas and once chicken enchilada and two pitchers of margaritas."

The state of California, like Ohio, has been knocking it out of the park so far. Specifically LA. Anyone who has symptoms, is a healthcare worker, a critical government worker, a first responder, is over 65, can't go to work because they have been in contact with someone who has the virus, and/or has underlying chronic health conditions can get tested for free at a drive thru testing center throughout the county.

Can someone clarify in a few sentences the plan of releasing prisoners ... I don’t quite get it

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51947802

Actually the CDC didn't make a statement that everyone should wear a mask. What they said is that if you're going to be in a situation that will make social distancing difficult, that wearing a mask is recommended.

The reasoning is that many people who are carrying the virus are asymptomatic. Which means you can be carrying and spreading the virus without even knowing it. Otherwise, it was not a recommended thing to wear a mask.

Oh. Thanks. I was just quoting from the article. Here it is again:

Thanks. I guess the article had it wrong?

To reduce the number of prisoners in a well packed common area. Also to lower the number of inmates per deputy.

My brother works at Mahoning County jail, and they have had so many deputies out that they have had to put the inmates on lockdown, and non of the inmates are complaining.

I'll show you what comes direct from the CDC. Then you can make your own determination of whether the article is wrong......

Recommendation Regarding the Use of Cloth Face Coverings, Especially in Areas of Significant Community-Based Transmission

CDC continues to study the spread and effects of the novel coronavirus across the United States. [b]We now know from recent studies that a significant portion of individuals with coronavirus lack symptoms (“asymptomatic”) and that even those who eventually develop symptoms (“pre-symptomatic”) can transmit the virus to others before showing symptoms. This means that the virus can spread between people interacting in close proximity—for example, speaking, coughing, or sneezing—even if those people are not exhibiting symptoms. In light of this new evidence, CDC recommends wearing cloth face coverings in public settings where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain (e.g., grocery stores and pharmacies) especially in areas of significant community-based transmission.[/quote]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html

It is a much longer article if you would like to read further. But as you can see, it describes almost verbatim what I told you. If you are not going somewhere that social distancing will be difficult, you do not need to wear a mask when you go out in public.

This isn't the political forum. You really need to limit your private nitpicking to that forum.

It figures. I just ordered 50, since they were going to be almost mandatory. Oh well.

That's why I think it's wise to go straight to the source. The CDC instead of trying to weigh third party news agencies and their reports. It's a confusing time with a lot of confusing information.

But most of your average grocery stores aren't built built to allow for social distancing when passing each other in a grocery aisle. And we never know for sure at this juncture how long COVID-19 will be a viable threat. So you may have been wise with your purchase. Only time will tell.

I have a friend of mine that is the daytime barkeep at the local pub. while she is laid off, She is spending her days in the garage on her sewing making making custom masks.. 10 bucks each and Venmo her the money and she ships.

Gotcha thanks ... my best to your brother

Thank you. He works at the jail, his wife is a nurse, and his step daughter works at a nursing home ... so there's a lot of prayers for them in my family.

You need something for the drive home

I'm really upset about the testing and the availability to be tested. This past weekend in Allaince Ohio 4 seniors died from covid 19 that were in a Nursing home. They were elderly in their 80's.. But they still suffered and died. Why?

Because someone who most likely worked there has it and doesn't show the symptoms. When your a care giver you can't follow the 6 foot rule. I'm furious that the only way to get tested if your already sick enough to be admitted to the hospital or be a in the medical field a first res ponder or a millionaire .

People need tested..not having tests is what's killing people. Test everyone..If someone tests positive and has no signs of being I'll then take plasma and do scientific research. Knowing who has it and doesn't is what will help save life's. This waiting til your already about to die to get tested is ridiculous.

Priority to have testing available for everyone should be priority. Innocent people are dying because innocent people carrying this virus who have no symptoms are spreading it. Quarantine some for 14 days that might have a cold .. Really ? Find out by testing to see what they have..Make getting tests available a priority.

j/c...

This site was created by a 17 year old. Pretty impressive. A more detailed Covid-19 tracker...

https://ncov2019.live

It looks like it is just grabbing the data from the worldometers page which is one of the official data sets used for the John's Hopkins site.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


I'd be very leery of trusting the data from any other sources as you have no idea of the validity.

I might be weird and I am sure a lot of you would confirm that...LOL......but, I have been having all kinds of odd thoughts lately.

I am in another room and my wife, who many of you know is in the health care field, was coughing like crazy in bed. It did not sound good. I went into the bedroom to inquire and she said she was fine. But, she is a tough old bird. Really tough.

So, I go back to my man cave and thoughts creep in. This freaking virus is going to claim a lot of us. So, I start prioritizing. Please God..............don't let my children get the virus. Please God, don't let my wife get the virus. Then, I am down to the dogs and me. They are just two years old. So, if the Blanking virus has to take any of us, I have decided that it should take me and leave the rest of my family alone.

I know that is dumb, but those thoughts keep occurring to me.

It's possible Prp, but this kid has been featured in a number of news articles. Here's a video of him on Bloomberg...

I get you. My wife is in much better health than me and was insisting she should be the one that does any shopping or anything outside the home until this is over... I had to convince her that it didn't matter who went because if one of us were to be exposed we both would be. I know she's scared about all of this, worried about me and her aging mother to the point of tears when she dwells on it, so I have been the one going out and I'm doing all I can to make sure she feels safe.

I've seen several APIs made public for COVID-19 research or development. The datasets are out there to be had. The kid built out a user friendly UI and seems to be tapping some of that data. He may have also created python web scrapers to scrape data from state sites and others since his source list reads like a multisource list.

I think a practical approach to face asks is necessary. It won’t hurt and may help.

Just another strategy to bending the curve.

Bending the curve is very important. The numbers without the bend are just terrible.

https://www.13abc.com/content/news/Toled...vbCEH-UXmRmNJQs

When (if) we get on the other side of this...
... I will not be making snarky statements re: what each of us looks like when we crawl out from under this.

This pestilence is going to test each and every one of us to the limits of our endurance. It will inform to each of us who we are as individuals... and reveal to each other the depths of our character.

We are not even close to the end of this.

Thanks everyone for your concern / thought / prayers for my father-in-law. He got the results this morning. He does not have covid19 or pneumonia. Unfortunately they do not know what caused his condition to worsen yet, it may simply be a reaction to his cancer treatments and lack of crohns treatments. He's doing much better after getting the IV and oxygen. Hopefully he gets out of the hospital soon.

Good news. Thanks for the update.

Unless he's improving and not as bad as he was, ask them to re-test since there is a 30% false-negative with these tests.

He is improving. His fever has gone down but he still has one. They currently think he has SIRS. My wife is a bit beside herself since he's 7 hours from here, not that she would be able to do anything about it even if she were local. Her sister is keeping her up to date and her dad does text with her.

China will be experiencing its second wave...


https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.economict...ow/75039944.cms

China lifts 73-day lockdown of Wuhan amid sharp increase in COVID-19 cases
The Chinese health authority said on Wednesday that 62 new confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported on the Chinese mainland on Tuesday, including 59 cases of people returning from abroad, taking the total tally to 1,042.

Beijing/Wuhan: Tens of thousands of people in Wuhan, the origin point and epicentre for the coronavirus pandemic, began travelling out of the sprawling city on Wednesday as China lifted its 73-day lockdown, even as the number of fresh COVID-19 cases crossed 1,000 in the country and two new deaths heightened concerns of a rebound in infections.
The Chinese health authority said on Wednesday that 62 new confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported on the Chinese mainland on Tuesday, including 59 cases of people returning from abroad, taking the total tally to 1,042.

Three new domestic cases were reported, including two in Shandong Province and one in Guangdong Province, the National Health Commission (NHC) said.
Also on Tuesday, 137 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were reported and 1,095 asymptomatic cases were still under medical observation, the NHC said.

Asymptomatic coronavirus cases are those who test positive for the virus but do not show any symptoms and have the potential to cause sporadic clusters of infections.
Two deaths were reported on Tuesday, with one in Shanghai and the other in Hubei Province, taking the overall death toll in the country to 3,333, it said.

On Monday, the NHC reported no deaths for the first time after it began publishing COVID-19 daily reports since January this year.
The overall confirmed cases on the mainland had reached 81,802 by Tuesday, including 1,190 patients still being treated, 77,279 patients discharged after recovery, and 3,333 people died of the disease.

Wednesday is yet another landmark day in China as it lifted about the 73-day lockdown of Wuhan city of 11 million people, ending its painful isolation due to COVID-19 which was first detected there in December last year.
No new confirmed case of coronavirus was reported on Tuesday in Hubei province and its capital Wuhan, but the province recorded one death.
Hubei has so far reported 67,803 confirmed COVID-19 cases in total, including 50,008 in Wuhan.
On January 23, Wuhan declared unprecedented traffic restrictions, including suspending the city's public transport and all outbound flights and trains, in an attempt to contain the epidemic.
The Wuhan lockdown was lifted even as epidemiologists warned that it is not the time to completely lower the guard and ease on full-scale restrictions, considering the looming asymptomatic patients and possible rebound in infections, the official media reported.
As the lockdown was lifted, tens of thousands of people from Wuhan began leaving the city on Wednesday. The government has lifted the ban on road, air and train travel for all the locals who have acquired health certificates.
Cars queued up at expressway toll gates and passengers prepared to board trains to leave Wuhan as the megacity started lifting outbound travel restrictions, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.
At Fuhe toll gate in nothern Wuhan, cars honked and rushed out after barricades were removed at midnight.
Guo Lei, who ran a business in Wuhan, drove his car with six other people aboard to the toll gate at around 8:40 pm (local time) and waited for a homebound trip.
"I can't wait returning to my hometown," said Guo, a native of east China's Shandong Province.
"I have lived in Wuhan for eight years. During the Spring Festival holiday, my relatives came to the city and helped me deliver goods. We were all stranded here due to the epidemic," Guo said.
Big data from Wuhan traffic police forecast the expressways would see the peak of outbound vehicles on Wednesday.
As more enterprises resume their operations, Wuhan has seen an increase of nearly 400,000 vehicles in transit in the past half month, and the number is expected to reach 1.8 million after Wednesday, according to the city's traffic police.
Traffic police will release real-time traffic information through radio stations, online social platforms, and map apps.
At Wuchang Railway Station in the city, 442 passengers jumped on the train K81 early Wednesday, which is heading for Guangzhou, capital of south China's Guangdong Province.
More than 55,000 passengers are expected to leave Wuhan by train on Wednesday, and about 40 per cent of them are going to the Pearl River Delta Region. Over 270 passenger trains will leave Wuhan for Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities, Xinhua report said.
The railway authorities required passengers to scan health codes and have temperatures checked when entering the stations and wear masks to reduce the risks of infection.
Workers have disinfected bullet trains, the entrance and exits, waiting halls and platforms of the railway stations in advance.
Wuhan Tianhe International Airport started resuming domestic passenger flights early Wednesday. The airport is expected to see more than 200 inbound and outbound flights on the day, according to the airport.
"The crew will wear goggles, masks, and gloves throughout the flight," said Guo Binxue, chief attendant of the flight MU2527. The first flight that is scheduled to depart from Wuhan at 7:25 am Wednesday since the city's lockdown was lifted.
"It will be very smooth because we have made much preparation for this flight," Guo said.
Flight attendants would provide masks for passengers if they had fever, cough and other symptoms, and record their personal information and contact history within 14 days, Guo said, adding: "We have simplified the service process to better protect everyone's health".
The central Hubei province has already lifted all the travel restrictions.

A 2nd wave is inevitable.

I don't understand why governments bother continuing to scan temperatures of people.... with the number of asymptomatic people that are contagious, you aren't really stopping anything but what... maybe 1 in 10?

Maybe it's more of a show thing... so that people see *something* being done, even if it is futile.

It will be of interest to me to watch how they respond to the 2nd wave.

Do they allow it to grow larger? Do they go back into full-on lockdown like they were, or will they adopt a more lenient lockdown like we're seeing here in the west?

At this point, they've had two and a half months to prepare for the second wave they MUST know is coming, which should include stockpiling gear... and you know they have it stockpiled now because they've actually been shipping gear out to Italy and the rest of Europe and there's no way they do that if they haven't taken care of their own shortfalls.

Also, what does this mean for the global supply chains? Do they keep themselves running enough for the rest of the world to get the resources they so badly need? Afterall, more than half the problems we're having with things are a direct result of global supply chains being broken.


One thing should be a foregone conclusion: this event should be the deathknell for China as the global manufacturing hub. If nothing else but strategic self-preservation, we MUST secure as many domestic sources of manufacturing as possible.

Here is the comprehensive list of all clinical trials currently ongoing, or about to start, in relation to COVID-19. For those that want to keep tabs on what treatments are being looked at, or are in the pipeline.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=COVID-19


A number of trials for hydroxycholoroquine, and even one for sildenafil (Viagara), lol!

Death knell for China as the global manufacturing hub? The answer to that lies the reason they had such success in the first place, Profit and Greed. Corporations are not going to sacrifice profit for a sense of patriotism, we know that. Billionaires are not going to suddenly decide to make investments in American based manufacturing out of the kindness of their hearts without incentives. The depression era post COVID-19 economic devastation is not going to make America more attractive for wouldbe manufacturing investments. Our minimum wage workforce would still be one of the most costly in the world, not to mention our lack of tech savvy automation experts.

Automation is another beast altogether that will further lend to the decimation of our overall economy in the years to follow COVID-19. What company in their right mind is going to tool a new manufacturing facility to provide jobs like factories in the 50s-80s? No sir, robot's don't eat. They don't have families with homes or cars, they don't need vacations or sick days... All they need is minimal maintenance.

America's shopping happy consumer economy has driven the building of strong middle classes in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, and India who will all compete for any tech savvy / automation / labor jobs. You also have an emerging middle classes in places like the Philippines and Indonesia that will compete for labor jobs. So even if we bring back steel mills and textiles in America for the sake of national security production, the markets will limit their manufacturing to almost 100% automation or make them unable to compete on a world stage. Every day will not be a national emergency and CEOs will need to drive a profit unless these industries are nationalized which would be socialism...

So I'd bet, at the end of the day, our leaders on both sides of the aisle will try to return to "normal" before attempting anything sensible because the money behind them is only interested in ROI.

Not for patriotism, absolutely no. For precisely greed and profit. Every company out there that has had their supply lines disrupted, or outright halted, by this will be doing two things:

1.) looking for alternative sources closer to home
2.) looking at not putting all their eggs in one basket

Additionally, companies, at least in the near term, will begin to look at going back to maintaining more stock of materials on hand. This entire thing has grossly exposed the biggest weakness with "just-in-time" supply chains which have been gaining popularity over the years.

More than patriotism, companies want to stay in production. You cannot do that without materials.

I get what you are saying and the angle you see, but I just don't see the economics of the situation bringing manufacturing jobs to America. Even if the DOW bounces back to 29K+, people go back to work in the next few weeks, and most of those job losses are recouped... The cost of all of this to the system, the bills of the working class, and the uncertainty of a round two infection are going to create a severe recession like economy for the rest of 2020 at least. Who is going to invest heavily in shelf stock and new facilities for the sake of better supply chains in that environment? I can see looking for closer existing suppliers. I can even see building some stock. But I don't see it creating a ton of new jobs, NOR do I see an economic scenario this good for us to work with. I honestly think we will be in lock down for the duration of spring and well into summer.

Gonna leave further discussion of it for the other thread. I have an article I'll post that details things better.


Update on my buddy: Generally all good news. Awake and down to 30-40% O², but they did start him on dialysis to help his kidneys.
So, still a ways to go, but things are looking way better than they were.

Happy to hear there are at least some signs of improvement.

j/c...

Governor Mike DeWine
@GovMikeDeWine
He tested positive for #COVID19 on March 30th and was the second officer to test positive in the Marion facility. He worked in the control center handing out equipment to staff. He had underlying health conditions.
https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1247949185242009600

The mitigation data is great news. We haven't hit our peak yet but instead of being at 10,000 cases per day as projected at peak, we're now at 2,000 cases per day projected.

This will be over with by June.

Not quite.

This isn't over until we find treatment that actually works.

I take Sildenafil. It's also used for pulmonary arterial hypertension. pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) means that you have high blood pressure in the arteries that go from your heart to your lungs . It's different from having regular high blood pressure. With PAH, the tiny arteries in your lungs become narrow or blocked.

I get 30 pills of Sildenafil for $ 24.00 A Viagra pill is like $ 20.00 for one pill. I normally take 2 and let me tell you I feel great after taking it ..It really helps those tiny arteries in my tiny organ..

TMFI!

It's not that big around, but it sure is short!

Any reliance on China to do ANYTHING is a major problem. We need to start getting away from them in every form possible. I would pay more knowing I'd be buying something made in America and I'd do it happily.

Essential products in the United States MUST be made here at all costs.

<<sigh>>

How's things in SC? We're doing okay up here.

We're grinding the axe.

Does it help get rid of covid's personality?

So your saying it's better that we mooned everybody instead of flashing them

j/c...

From the start of the press conference....

He's such a lovable goof.

Not sure if related but....

Here's Jeb "Grinding the Crack".

So has Ohio hit the peak? It looks like exponential growth is slowing with that latest graph?

No, we're not close to peaking, yet.

Remember, today's cases are really a view of what happened two weeks ago; like looking at the light of a distant star.

What you're seeing is the curve flattening now, but still going up. Two weeks ago, we were still settling in to the lockdown and more stringent measures were still being rolled out.

Since people are still moving around and still going places and still having contact at markets and other places, the spread will continue, albeit slowed dramatically. Growth will no longer be exponential, but it will still be there.

j/c...

curious how many people are at the statehouse for that protest. You can certainly hear them. Something tells me they're not practicing social distancing...

Oh, THAT is disconcerting as Hell!



Side note: The US passed Spain by a large margin for 2nd place in deaths today. We are over 16,000 and will likely take the lead from Italy before the weekend is over.

j/c...

This is an interesting animated visual of Coronavirus deaths vs other epidemics since the year 2000. Starts from day 1 of each virus/diseas caused death. Just press play on the graph.

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful...cs_from_day_of/

Question is will there be a 2nd wave.

Very informative thank you

j/c...

I mentioned before my brother is a CRNA in NY. He signed up to go to help out in NJ because of the surge in need for help in the ICU. He told me this morning before his one day of orientation before beginning ICU work at the hospital that they are no longer resuscitating any patient that codes.

He just updated me and said that nearly every patient at that hospital has covid-19. 10 patients coded during his first few hours of orientation and there is currently a refrigerated truck out back of the hospital being loaded with bodies.

Also, many of the staff have been/were infected, but a number of them have recovered and returned to work.

Pretty crazy.

That's just crazy to see it in relation to all the others.

I have a friend working a ICU in NYU who posted about how strange it is to be in an ICU with 50 patients who all have the exact same treatment plan. It becomes this hurried but monotonous practice of:

1.) Go to patient
2.) Decide whether to turn ventilator up or down
3.) Document
4.) Go to next patient.

Almost certainly. Everywhere there are restrictions, there will almost certainly be a second wave as restrictions are eased or lifted.

The fact that it is infectious and novel has not changed. As things are eased, it will find it easier to spread and there will be another wave. Hopefully, though, once this first wave passes, we can kinda get back to normal-ish, but while maintaining social distancing, and maybe get parts of the economy going again while still keeping hospitals from imploding.

No concerts, trade shows, or movie theaters, but people can maybe go back to work and retail shops could re-open.

Makes ya dream of connecting them all back to a central monitoring station where each could be adjusted remotely.

Portage County.....

State identifies coronavirus cluster in Portage area

By Diane Smith / Reporter
Posted Apr 8, 2020 at 2:35 PM
Updated Apr 8, 2020 at 6:16 PM

A map depicting clusters of coronavirus cases in Ohio puts Portage County in the cross hairs of a “strong cluster” of cases in the northeastern corner of the state.

Gov. Mike DeWine posted the map on social media Tuesday. It depicts various spots in Ohio where the virus seems to be spreading.

“We’re starting to see hotspots,” DeWine said. “Near Detroit, near nursing homes, near a prison.That why we’re building up our healthcare system.”

The map depicts dots, representing positive cases of the virus, scattered throughout Portage County. A crosshatched area, which the map calls a “strong cluster,” encompasses most of Portage County, as well as its borders at Stark County and Summit County, as well as parts of Mahoning and Trumbull counties.

Christopher Woolverton, professor of epidemiology at Kent State University’s College of Public Health, said that if the map could be compared to a Google map, the cases might be in places where epidemiologists expect more cases, such as nursing homes.

There are nearly a dozen nursing homes in Portage County with hundreds of beds. It’s also home to a hospital.

“At the beginning of a pandemic, you look at individual cases,” he said. “But as it starts to spread, you look at trends. After that, you can start looking at the direction that it’s spreading to.”

Portage County had 108 positive cases as of Wednesday, an increase of seven from Tuesday. The number of hospitalizations rose to 27, a slight increase from Tuesday.

Eight Portage County residents have died from coronavirus as of Tuesday, with the virus claiming the life of a woman over the age of 80. The virus has claimed the lives of six people age 80 or older, one in their 70s and one in her 60s. Those who have died include five women and three men.

Becky Lehman, public information officer for the Portage County Health District, said DeWine’s analysis “is a statistical approach that looks at expected versus observed confirmed case counts within a given area and a relative risk is calculated.”

She said the cluster reinforces basic recommendations, such as maintaining a safe social distance, staying at home except for essential activities, wearing a mask in places such as a grocery store or pharmacy, washing your hands, avoid touching your face, avoiding contact with people who are sick and staying home if you are ill.

Some replied to DeWine’s tweet claiming that that the hotspots are all in big cities, but that’s not the case for Portage. That hotspot encompasses Portage County as well as the borders of nearby counties, such as Stark, Summit, Mahoning and Trumbull. Yet Portage County was the last county of the five to see positive cases, and still has fewer cases than its neighbors.

Woolverton said often, areas where a pandemic tends to spread are borders with neighboring states, because despite the governor’s “stay at home” orders, some travel still takes place. Some areas of concentration are near the state’s borders with Michigan and Pennsylvania. A large area near the state’s southern border is depicted as a “weak cluster.”

“People continue to travel, and the virus goes with them,” he said. “As epidemiologists, that’s what we’re watching.”

Other confirmed cases in Portage County include one person under the age of 20; two in their 20s, one of whom is hospitalized; nine people in their 30s, two hospitalized; eight in their 40s, two hospitalized; 16 patients in their 50s, two hospitalized; 12 in their 60s, including three hospitalizations; 21 in their 70s, seven hospitalized; and 39 people age 80 or older, including nine hospitalizations.

Reporter Diane Smith can be reached at 330-298-1139 or dsmith@recordpub.com.

https://www.record-courier.com/news/20200408/state-identifies-cluster-in-portage

We also have 7 times (or so) the population of Spain, and more than 5 times the population of Italy.

Yup. It was really only a matter of time, and math, but it is still an unhappy milestone. Like the milestone where the world will hit 100,000 deaths tomorrow. It was just a matter of time, but ... well, here it is.

A week or so ago I posted about the CC and UH possibly setting up a temp, if needed hospital, inside the IX center.

Nyet.....

The CC and Case Western Reserve now have a plan in place "IF NEEDED" for 1000 beds inside of Case Western Reserve.

Again......If needed.

Also, CC is asking for volunteers (docs/nurses) to go to NYC and Detroit to help. They'll be compensated.

A lot are going. That's what they do.

Shout out to all docs and nurses.

I'll never forget this. Yeeears ago when I was a produce mgr at your local and my wife was an RN at a local hospital. She was also on "The Code Team". A couple of decades ago her and I sat down for dinner one night and I brought up the nightly "how was work today?"

Her: "OK. We went to lunch and as soon as we sat down a code came over the PA system. WE NEED SO AND SO AND SO AND SO, STAT!!! So we jumped up and ran. By the time we got there the guy was pretty gray". I can't tell you how times I hit him with the paddles. We worked on him for about an hour and we finally got him to pink back up".

Then she asks, "how was your work".

What do I say? What could I say. WHADDYA SAY???

ME: "It was ok".

So, again. Thanks to all caregivers.

That is insane, Milk. I am not very religious, but I'll pray for your brother. He is a true hero!

It's utterly insane that we've gotten there. I'm just grateful that we likely won't see that here in Ohio.

I had to tell most of my staff I'm cutting their hours in half today.... get to tell the rest of them tomorrow... lots of crying and one ended up quitting... fun day...

That's insane.... praying he stays safe...

We hope. Don't count your chickens before they hatch. If we end protocol too early it could turn. And even if we do everything right there could be issues still coming our way. We'll start seeing mental health and other issues ticking up soon. There are a lot of people NOT going to their doctors for other things right now and stress is getting higher every day.

I'm going to get tested tomorrow at Dodger Stadium. We'll see how it goes.

You showing symptoms?

Praying for a good report ...

Update on my buddy... Good News on Good Friday:

[words are his wife's]
"Doctors decided to remove him from the ventilator as of yesterday evening. He has been breathing on his own since then. He is getting between 93-94% oxygen on his own. The goal is that he gets 100% oxygen on his very own but we have to take it one step at the time. He is moving & talking a little. However, he is very weak & his voice is very raspy because of the breathing tube they just removed. He still cannot move his arms and legs very well. Doctors are going to try to see if they can get him to eat today so he regains some of his energy back. The plan is to place him back in dialysis today just for a few hours. Since he is breathing on his own without the ventilator, the hope is that his body will start kicking in the proper kidney functions soon."

No doubt that's a sad deal.

My son-in-laws brother-in-law owns 12-14 restaurants(Ohio and Fla). Knowing that the shutdown would most prob be for a while, he let the "non mgmt staff" divvy up the food on hand in the freezers and coolers first. The waiters, waitresses, cooks, etc. I know him fairly well. Pretty good down to earth guy.

No doubt a write-off but still.

I wanted to say something about a wonderful thing a local restaurant has done for a local family.

Our church, in conjunction with the Struthers city schools, usually does a Easter dinner for those in need. We have a family that we have helped with food in the past. The wife lost her job before this whole COVID-19 started, and has had a hard time finding anything since. Our pastor had offered to provide an Easter dinner for them. Unfortunately, things changed, and closed, and we were unable to provide as we had in the past.

I was calling around to some local restaurants to see what I could find for them. I called our local Bob Evans, in Boardman, and while explaining the situation to the manager, and seeing what would be the most reasonable way to go, (because, since our church has been closed for 4 or 5 weeks now, and only limited offerings have some in by mail) she offered to take care of it for them. She is also providing meals for her employees who had to be laid off.

Difficult times really do seem to bring out the best in many people. (and companies, for that matter) I just wanted to salute this restaurant. If you're ever in Boardman, stop in and give them your patronage.

j/c...

Fran offering some fun tips! I think she's cutting Gov. DeWine's hair as well. It's not getting any longer!

A week of rain + no one on the freeways = no smog

I worked in Monrovia in the late 90s at a jewelery store corporate headquarters (think it was Samuels Jewelers) for about a year as a contractor. My desk faced the mountains, which I didn't even know were there because you couldn't see them through the smog. One day, for some reason, the smog cleared and I had an amazing view from my desk. I said something to the manger about how amazing the view was and he replied "oh no, it's a terrible day, we don't trust any air we can't see"

Thankful they have tests in Califorinia.

I've got a lil song stuck in my head, thought of it, kind of catchy.

They can test the president two times a week,
They can test a tiger in a zoo!
They can test South Koreans' 10,000 a day
But they can't test me or you! HOO!
No they won't test me or you! HOO!

The slightly frustrating impression that mass testing won't come to Ohio until two years after the vaccine,
and so, dang the torpedoes.

Oh well, dang the torpedoes; if New York State keeps increasing cases at 10% a day they'll reach 1 million by or before May 1, ehh,
Mabye it's not a 2nd wave, maybe a sustained wave, the thing is, is seeing constantly a verge of it could get better it could get worse it's an either or, up in the air; like a car dangling halfway over a cliff.

No smog?

I bet momma cooked a breakfast with no hog.

I had a cough for about a week and a half that would not go away. It was not a dry cough like is usually associated with COVID-19. I also did not have any other symptoms. I wasn't going to get tested because I am not in the age range for people who are in danger but the reports were people were not showing up for tests, so I decided to make an appointment.

They have a testing center set up in one of the parking lots outside Dodger Stadium. There was almost no one there. The test was pretty simple. Here is the video tutorial they sent me on what to do:



I will hear back via email within the next two days.

NYC Is Taking Hundreds of Body Bags Out of Houses—and Soon They Will Be Counted
‘BLUNT TRUTH’
New York City officials say they will begin to report those who’ve died in their homes from suspected coronavirus complications without an official lab diagnosis.
Pilar Melendez
Reporter
Michael Daly
Special Correspondent
Updated Apr. 08, 2020 7:00PM ET / Published Apr. 08, 2020 2:21PM ET

The coronavirus death count in New York City, already unfathomable, is expected to surge in the coming days as officials begin including people who have been dropping dead at home without an official diagnosis.

Emergency Medical Service data first reported by Gothamist suggests the undercount of individuals who have likely died from the virus is massive. On Tuesday alone, 256 people were pronounced dead at home across the five boroughs. Until this month, about 25 people in New York City were found dead in their homes on a typical day, suggesting that most of Tuesday’s calls were related to the outbreak that has already killed over 5,400 people across the state and infected 140,386 more.

According to New York City Fire Department data obtained by The Daily Beast, first responders have reported 2,192 “dead-on-arrival” calls over the last two weeks. On average, the department handled about 453 of those calls over the same period last year.

That data also showed that the number of cardiac or respiratory arrest calls has exploded, from 20 to 30 a day at the end of March and the beginning of April in 2019, to 322 on one day in April in 2020—with more than 100 calls every day since March 28. While 30 to 50 percent of those calls ended in a death in 2019, more than 50 percent of those calls have ended in a death every day since March 22 this year, with the percentage steadily rising to 75 percent as of April 5.


“Every person with a lab-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis is counted in the number of fatalities, whether they passed away at home or in a hospital,” a spokesperson for the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene said in a statement to The Daily Beast. “The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME) and the NYC Health Department are working together to include into their reports deaths that may be linked to COVID but not lab-confirmed that occur at home.”

They did not specify when the city will begin reporting that data, but the decision to include the possible virus-related fatalities comes after Gothamist’s report about at-home deaths that were likely related to the disease and not included in the city’s reports.

While New York City reported over 400 coronavirus deaths in less than 24 hours on Wednesday, that number did not include those who died in non-hospital settings without a formal lab diagnosis.

While initially refusing to discuss his administration’s reporting system, Mayor Bill de Blasio on Wednesday agreed the city should include home deaths to give an accurate account of the tragedy ravaging the city. He acknowledged that a “vast majority” of deaths at home are “coronavirus related.”

“The blunt truth is coronavirus is driving these very tragic deaths,” de Blasio said on CNN. “We’re talking about something like 100, 200 people per day. Don’t take this disease ever lightly because the real death toll is even higher.”

The mayor added that New York—currently the epicenter of the pandemic in the United States—has seen more deaths in the “last couple of days” than “the number of people who died in the World Trade Center.”

State and city officials are still struggling to track the number of coronavirus cases, as officials believe there are a number of individuals infected with the virus who have not, or cannot, be tested.

One emergency room doctor told The Daily Beast that his hospital is “aggressively sending people home.”

“Being in the hospital is not going to change their course of illness,” the physician said, indicating the hard choices medical professionals face during this pandemic.

De Blasio said that he was hopeful the virus was starting to slow after seeing indications that the city’s overwhelmed hospital system was seeing fewer admissions—until he learned that hundreds of people are dying in their homes without seeking medical care.

,

“We never saw anything like this in normal times,” he added. “We have to acknowledge that, and say this is further evidence of just how destructive this disease is.”

On Wednesday, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said that 779 more people had died across the state, marking the second day in a row that the Empire State saw an increase in deaths related to the pandemic.

“If the hospitalization rate keeps decreasing the way it is now, then the system should stabilize these next couple of weeks, which will minimize the need for an overflow that we have built into the system,” Cuomo said, adding that “the number of deaths, as a matter of fact, will continue to rise as those hospitalized for a longer period of time pass away.”

The death toll has already overwhelmed city hospitals and morgues. To deal with the flood of bodies, 45 refrigerated trucks have been set up across the five boroughs, some of which are already full, and a temporary morgue has been erected outside Bellevue Hospital in Midtown Manhattan. The Federal Emergency Management Agency said last week that New York will also receive 250 ambulances, about 500 EMTs and paramedics, and 85 more refrigerated trucks to help with the overload.

On Monday, de Blasio, who’d previously refused to detail any plans for mass burials, said that the city has contingency plans in place if needed to bury COVID-19 victims in temporary plots on Hart Island, which has been used as New York’s potter’s field for 150 years, until morgues and cemeteries can handle the influx.

“We’re going to try and treat every family with dignity, respect, religious needs of those who are devout, and the focus right now is to try to get through this crisis and obviously also put all of our energy and resources into saving those we can save,” de Blasio said. “That’s how we’re going to go about it. We’ll have the capacity for temporary burials. That’s all I’m going to say.”

That’s pretty cool

Hey Deisle, I see you are still working as we are. i have been told not to work till further notice because of high fever. Suck's I moved back to Ohio to take care of my parents, and now cant do that. Prayer's to you and all on this board.

Just take care of yourself, and just so you know, if you were told to stay home for that you can draw unemployment for the time you are off if you are not being paid.

Massive Spike in NYC ‘Cardiac Arrest’ Deaths Seen as Sign of COVID-19 Undercounting

Hundreds of people are now dying at home in New York City daily

The FDNY reported a nearly 400 percent increase in "cardiac arrest" home deaths in late March and early April, a spike that officials say is almost certainly driven by COVID-19, whether they were formally diagnosed or not.

Between March 20 and April 5, the department recorded nearly 2,200 such deaths, versus 450 in the same period last year, according to data it provided on Friday.

The numbers are dramatically higher across the board -- the numbers of calls, the number of deaths and particularly the percentage of such calls that end in death.

In just the first five days of April, more than 70 percent of cardiac arrest calls ended in a pronunciation of death every day. Some days, the numbers were up tenfold versus a year earlier -- and everyone acknowledges there's only one likely cause.

“It’s just horrendous. The numbers speak for themselves. This used to be a very, very rare thing in New York City and suddenly it’s jumped up. The only thing that’s changed is COVID- 19,” Mayor Bill de Blasio told reporters earlier this week. The city is moving to count more people in its official total, even if they were not tested for the virus.

New York City remains the U.S. epicenter of the crisis, with more than a fifth of the nation's total cases and more than a third of its deaths. As the crisis deepened, new rules advised paramedics not to bring cardiac arrest patients to hospitals if they could not be revived in the field.

Overall, the FDNY is experiencing a 50 percent increase in call volume, and has asked that people only call 911 for urgent emergencies, such as cardiac arrest, heavy bleeding or inability to breathe.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/ma...unting/2368678/

Adding you to my prayer list buddy

j/c...

I've been following the numbers since I got back from China in January. I decided today to look at numbers a little differently, and I found something fascinating (and not in a good way).

From the John Hopkins site:
Total Cases Globally: 1,844,410
Total Deaths Globally: 113,948
Death Rate 6.2% (Flu is about 0.1%)

Total US Cases: 558.620
Total US Deaths: 22,018
Death Rate 3.9%

US has about 4.2% of the world's population, but 30.3% of the cases and 19.3% of the deaths. Crazy numbers.

Regarding Oregon (where I live) and Ohio (where I'm from)
Oregon Cases: 1527 with 52 deaths (3.4%)
Ohio Cases: 6604 with 247 deaths (3.7%)

Oregon has 1.3% of the US Population and .27% of the cases and .24% of the deaths.
Ohio has 3.6% of the US Population and 1.18% of the cases and 1.12% of the deaths.
Both governors were pretty aggressive on this, and the numbers show.

This evening I talked to an old coworker, he had the virus, and his girlfriend too. Only they never got tested because it wasn't severe enough to go to the hospital.

I think this might be a problem where the number of cases is being under reported because people don't feel sick enough to get tested.

Agreed 100%. I suspect this is the case across the globe too.

I read an interesting article a week or two ago where if I recall correctly medical examiners are saying they aren't being provided test kits for the deceased, so we're not sure how many deaths either -though clearly this number is much lower than # of cases.

How does he know they had the virus if they weren't tested?

His symptoms were spot on.

The math is correct but the answers are wrong. You can't take only the known cases and then present the death rates as being anywhere close to accurate. You have to compare the deaths to the total number of infected.

By now they should be able to provide an estimate on how many people have been infected. If they can run numbers and theorize that 6 feet is a safe distance, that only allowing 20% of a stores capacity in customers, etc have an impact, surely they have some idea of the transmissibility rates and can provide at least a loose extrapolation of how many infected.

I'm just wondering why they are hiding that information.

Um.. perhaps the increase is due to a population of people with heart issues who often have to monitor blood pressure not being able to handle the daily stress of the panicked reactions to COVID? Being in an elevated emotional state for lengthy periods of time reeks havoc on the body.

The cure being worse than the disease...

What is crazy is we have over half a million cases and a country like China, with a much larger population has 82,000.

I'll spare the reason why. I'll let y'all figure it out.


I hope we checked the gnome sequencing data they provided.

In the next few months we can expect China to get aggressive on the world stage while we are distracted with being sick as crap..

Just saying.

I'd have about 30 subs in the Pacific and Indian Ocean. All with about 24 greeting cards from Uncle Sam with China coordinates set. Use the Atlantic fleet as well as England and France with eyes on Russia in case they start to feel bold.

If it's going to end, so be it.

China knows what they did. They are high fiving every day.

Regardless of if you want to shade the numbers optimistic or pessimistic, the corona virus means...that 4 to 5 percent will not make it.

No matter who you are, if you get it, there is the possibility of death.
If you are over sixty you have an increased chance.
If you are over 70 and you get it, the odds are less than 50/50
If you are over the 80 you will be unlikely to survive...

If you get put on a vent, no matter your age, you have a 1 in 5 chance of surviving...

That is pretty brutal for the “flu”

I agree. The overall percentage of death is only around 1.5% when looking at cases V number of deaths. Still pretty high.

These are Tennessee numbers, but on a few checks hold pretty solid across the board. The number of deaths for people actually hospitalized jumps to 17.5%.


That is a sobering number considering younger people stand a better chance of survival. Face it, your body is starting to die once you reach 40 or so.

I have had a great life. I am 71. I just don't want to get beat by China. We have been fighting those bastards since Korea and Vietnam.

Screw those slobber knockers.