So, today is the second day in a row of dramatically lower new case and death rates.
For a couple of weeks, it seems, we had been averaging close to 35,000 new cases each day and anywhere from 2,000 to 2,500 deaths.
Yesterday we had only 26,509 new cases and well under 1,200 deaths. Today we are right now sitting at less than 21,000 new cases and just a hair over 1,230 deaths.
It's probably too early to get too excited, but this is either a gigantic anomaly, or it's signalling that we're hitting the back side of this. I wish I had graphs for all of the major hotspots to reference, but it *seems* that the numbers are down across all of the harder hit areas.
I'm trying to calm my own excitement as Alaska's been in the single digits for new cases, even a day or two of no new reported cases, but I know that can quickly change.
We have more recovered than active cases. I hope this stays the same.
I want to be physically around our friends again. Phone calls and videochats (especially on limited internet data) aren't the same.
The weather is supposed to warm up here. Sunny in the mid 40s to low 50s by the end of the week. We're going to try and get out to enjoy the sun.
I mentioned a day or 2, maybe 3 days ago, that a guy my wife works with was feeling poorly, had a fever, etc. He's still like that, still with a fever. He lives in Michigan........can't get tested.
Found out Sunday that a friend of mine, his 21 year old son, in the army in Germany, had the virus. He appears to be doing better though.
Our county’s numbers have gone up a bit over the last few days, which is a bit concerning ... one of my best friends and my neighbor both tested positive ... so I’m literally not leaving the house
So, today is the second day in a row of dramatically lower new case and death rates.
For a couple of weeks, it seems, we had been averaging close to 35,000 new cases each day and anywhere from 2,000 to 2,500 deaths.
Yesterday we had only 26,509 new cases and well under 1,200 deaths. Today we are right now sitting at less than 21,000 new cases and just a hair over 1,230 deaths.
It's probably too early to get too excited, but this is either a gigantic anomaly, or it's signalling that we're hitting the back side of this. I wish I had graphs for all of the major hotspots to reference, but it *seems* that the numbers are down across all of the harder hit areas.
As far as the overall US numbers go, I wouldn't get my hopes up over a positive trend of 2 days. That graph has been bouncing around 30k new daily cases for the past 2-3 weeks. Good that it's not going up, but it's not yet on the backside of the curve. Also, that graph is largely driven by a handful of states (although, even that is flattening out). I had to use the top 5 states to account for half the US daily new cases. Before, half the daily new cases were in the top 2-3 cases... so that's exceptionally good news for NY and similar places.
Wife's not happy. She's been working from home and her production hasn't slipped an inch, she's the top performer in her department and has been for several years. But because some 20-30 something coworkers complained about having to answer more incoming calls and carrying her orders from the printer to the production mailbox ten feet away, her office is making her return to work May 4th. The whole reason she was sent home and told to work from home was the fact that I'm high risk. That has not changed. She is livid.
3 Coronavirus Facts Americans Must Know Before Returning To Work, School
We can’t un-bungle our nation’s COVID-19 response. Political leaders acted too slowly, health agencies committed unforced errors with testing kits and, amid the confusion, an information fog settled over the land.
Americans remain afraid, perplexed and chronically misinformed (despite wall-to-wall coronavirus coverage across the leading cable-news programs and print publications).
To counter the uncertainty, any plan to get us out of the coronavirus crisis must first acknowledge and broadly communicate three immutable, scientific facts.
Fact 1: Staying home saves lives but it doesn’t kill the virus
Weeks of social distancing and self-isolation in the United States have made us all safer. These precautions slowed the spread of COVID-19, thus helping to “flatten the curve.” Doing so buys hospitals and critical care centers enough time to staff up and stock diagnostic tests, protective gear and ventilators.
However, it’s imperative that Americans understand these measures do not eliminate the virus. By staying home (and six feet apart from each other), we did not (and cannot) outlast our opponent.
Whenever we return to our jobs, schools and community gatherings—be it this spring, summer or fall—infections will rise. It’s not a prediction. It’s a biological fact.
To avoid overwhelming critical care services, local reopening strategies must keep a multitude of safety precautions in place, especially those meant to protect the most vulnerable populations. The elderly—and those with chronic illnesses like heart and lung disease—remain at highest risk and therefore must continue to shelter in place. As such, local governments should provide them with food, housing and safe transport as needed.
Fact 2: We’re in this for the long-haul
There’s a bitter paradox brewing in the United States. The spread of COVID-19 has been, and still is, largely predictable based on objective and publicly available data. Yet most people—including Wall Street investors, governors and sports-starved fans—seem unable to comprehend the mathematical realities of a virus that spreads exponentially.
As federal and state officials hammer out plans to reopen the economy, our nation must accept the unfortunate truth that every path forward is booby-trapped.
The coronavirus will persist until there is either (a) a safe vaccine (still 12 to 18 months away) or (b) until there is “herd immunity,” whereby two-thirds of the nation (about 200 million people) must become infected, recover and develop the appropriate antibodies. This, too, will take at least a year.
A theoretical third option, which involves aggressively testing and quarantining all infected individuals, no longer applies. In the United States, that ship sailed in back February when the number of cases soared into the tens of thousands with no way of tracking carriers and their recent contacts. At this point, too many people are infected and too many of the infected show no symptoms, making it impossible to rid the virus through containment.
So, what options do we have? Trump recently announced he is “authorizing each individual governor of each individual state to implement a reopening, and a very powerful reopening, plan of their state.”
This is a dangerous tightrope to walk at the state level. Governors must ensure they don’t ease restrictions too quickly or too slowly.
Reports of increased mental health crises, domestic violence incidents and suicides demonstrate the urgency of getting people out of their houses and back to their normal lives. At the same time, the Spanish Flu of 1918 reminds us that the “second wave” of a virus can prove just as deadly as the first.
Medical requirements for reopening the country must therefore include:
- Limiting exposure, likely for a year. Restaurants and shops should reopen only under three conditions: (1) community hospitals have additional capacity to handle an uptick in demand, (2) all local businesses agree to restrict indoor capacity based on the six-foot rule, and (3) all staff wear masks.
- Making tests free and convenient. Testing for COVID-19 requires the insertion a 6-inch long swab into the back of the nasal passage through one nostril and rotating the swab several times for 15 seconds. It’s a painful process, which is why Americans won’t consent to a reopening strategy that involves daily tests. Nevertheless, local governments need to make testing available at no cost to anyone with COVID-19 symptoms. Those who are confirmed should immediately self-quarantine.
- Helping health officials. In parallel to molecular testing for the disease, our nation must ramp up serological testing, which can identify those that were infected, have since recovered and developed antibodies—thus telling health officials how close we are to herd immunity.
Fact 3: Our nation is ignoring the most important metric
Every day, cable-news chyrons display the latest numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. These figures are eye-popping, but they tell us very little about the relative safety of reopening the country.
That’s why it’s important for all Americans to acquaint themselves with a different, more-informative metric.
R0 (pronounced “R naught”) is a number that indicates the contagiousness of an infectious disease like COVID-19. Specifically, it tells us the average number of unvaccinated (or otherwise vulnerable) people who will contract a disease from one contagious individual.
For example, measles has an R0 of 12 to 18, which means that one infected person will transmit the virus to as many as 18 unprotected people. The R0 for HIV is 4.0 and the seasonal flu is 1.2.
Early data suggests the R0 of COVID-19 is between 2.5 and 3.0. However, the actual number depends not only on the biology of the disease but on the actions people take.
For example, when people observe social distancing and adhere to rigid shelter-in-place measures, the number drops. In the UK, where strict lockdown protocols and frequent testing are in place, the R0 is low (currently estimated to be 0.62). Conversely, the R0 value grows much higher in densely packed conditions including sports arenas, large conferences and events like Mardi Gras.
As explained here, the R0 value shows the potential transmissibility of the disease, and its careful monitoring constitutes both the safest and fastest way for the United States to implement a reopening strategy:
- If R0 is less than 1.0, each infected person transmits the virus to less than one other individual. As a result, the disease incidence will decline and the virus will slowly die out.
- If R0 equals 1.0, each infected person will transmit the virus to one other individual. As a result, the infection rate will remain constant (though the curve will be flat) and there won’t be a future spike (or second wave).
- If R0 is more than 1.0, each infected person will pass the virus onto more than one individual. As such, the number of infected people will rise and the number of individuals needing critical care can quickly surge.
If we want Americans to better understand the relative safety and preparedness of local and regional “reopening” plans, we must base our decisions on this important number.
Facts Save Lives
About 90% of the country has been on some form of lockdown order for several weeks now. People are losing patience. As our nation eagerly eyes the future, we must let science inform our decisions about reopening small businesses, allowing students to return to class and easing social restrictions.
If we move ahead too quickly, we risk losing lives unnecessarily. If we move too slowly, we also risk unnecessary deaths. We can’t allow politics or panic to push our nation too far in either direction. These three facts, based on science, should guide the way.
Americans remain afraid, perplexed and chronically misinformed (despite wall-to-wall coronavirus coverage across the leading cable-news programs and print publications).
Ohio, Missouri and Iowa are latest states to lift coronavirus restrictions as 83 million Americans begin to see normality return after weeks of shutdown
Ohio, Missouri and Iowa are the latest states to commit to reopening their coronavirus-ravaged economies despite health experts warning that lifting restrictions too soon could result in a new surge of infections.
Ohio will reopen from Friday with non-essential surgeries that don't require an overnight hospital stay. The state's manufacturing, distribution and construction sectors will start to reopen on May 4 and consumer retail and services will start up again on May 12.
Republican Governor Mike DeWine said companies will need to ensure employees and customers are wearing face masks and adhere to social distancing guidelines.
In announcing his 'first steps' to reopening Ohio's economy, Gov DeWine acknowledged that coronavirus was still a threat and said a total reopening on May 1 would be irresponsible.
Day cares, gyms, swimming pools and movie theaters are among those businesses that will stay closed. Restaurants and businesses like barbershops won't reopen for several few weeks.
Obviously, time will tell... but I've become quite the supporter of DeWine over the course of his handling of the pandemic (as I'm sure most are). Dude is absolutely crushing it, in terms of leadership.
I catch at least snippets of his daily press conferences. He 'gets it' too. He understands that while the physical/health portion of the pandemic response (rightfully) gets most of the attention and urgency, there is still the economic portion that needs to be addressed ASAP. He alluded to this when he talked about the people and the govt needing the economy to get running again. The economic problem related to the pandemic response is only going to grow the longer we have to stay away from work.
I have become a DeWine fanboy too. I didn't vote for him last time, but will strongly consider voting for him next time, should he chose to seek another term.
When Kasich was Governor, he amassed this enormous "rainy day fund". (after Ted Strickland famously ran it all the way down to $0.89 in his term) I wondered why Kasich didn't take at least part of it to fix roads and such. I guess I am happy that he didn't .... because Ohio isn't freaking out, because we were prepared for what some thought impossible to prepare for.
Wife's not happy. She's been working from home and her production hasn't slipped an inch, she's the top performer in her department and has been for several years. But because some 20-30 something coworkers complained about having to answer more incoming calls and carrying her orders from the printer to the production mailbox ten feet away, her office is making her return to work May 4th. The whole reason she was sent home and told to work from home was the fact that I'm high risk. That has not changed. She is livid.
I have an employee who was able to take FMLA as his wife is extremely high risk and we work in a hospital. Doc said, "No way he can stay at work and come home to you each night". I believe an organ transplant was involved.
Wife's not happy. She's been working from home and her production hasn't slipped an inch, she's the top performer in her department and has been for several years. But because some 20-30 something coworkers complained about having to answer more incoming calls and carrying her orders from the printer to the production mailbox ten feet away, her office is making her return to work May 4th. The whole reason she was sent home and told to work from home was the fact that I'm high risk. That has not changed. She is livid.
I have an employee who was able to take FMLA as his wife is extremely high risk and we work in a hospital. Doc said, "No way he can stay at work and come home to you each night". I believe an organ transplant was involved.
Maybe it's the sarcastic ahole in me, but I would have followed up that first tweet with.
"So instead of making retail customers wears masks, we are just going to mandate AND enforce stay at home orders for 30 more days.. How's that for offensive?"
Maybe it's the sarcastic ahole in me, but I would have followed up that first tweet with.
"So instead of making retail customers wears masks, we are just going to mandate AND enforce stay at home orders for 30 more days.. How's that for offensive?"
It’s going to be interesting to see the smoothness in which the states open back up. I know in PA we’re having this done in a Red-Yellow-Green stage every two weeks ... but I mean, even when we get to Green, what are the restrictions? It seems counterproductive to just be like: “Okay, you all can go work out at gyms now ...”
How is wearing a mask offensive? Dewine is crumbling to the lunatic fringe! smh
Is it the wearing of the mask that is offensive or the threat of being arrested and thrown in jail for not wearing a mask that is offensive?
The true lunatics are the ones who think thinks like this and measuring and arresting people for surfing by themselves are the true lunatics.
Karen called the other day because she saw people playing basketball and soccer at the park not practicing social distancing. I drove up, watched a dude dunk, saw some guy kicking the ball with his kids, then drove off.
I've said it from the beginning and the data is proving me right: the response has been unjustifiably disproportional to the issue. Had they just continued to push people to follow these voluntarily, we still would have gotten a highly effective participation rate.
This virus DOES warrant precautions. I've never said different but I can't buy in to something where the death numbers are being artificially inflated and skewed by what's going on in NYC. It's not fair and it's not right that nationwide totals are trotted out to illustrate the severity of the virus, causing our local businesses to close and refuse to allow them to re-open under the threat of a 2nd wave, yet NYC won't shut down the subways and is essentially a breeding ground for the virus.
Well, somehow, this has to fit into the "feel good sad story" category.
Couple together for 73 years dies six hours apart from coronavirus NEWS by: CNNwire
Posted: Apr 29, 2020 / 07:40 AM EDT / Updated: Apr 29, 2020 / 07:40 AM EDT
WISCONSIN (CNN) — Mary Kepler and her husband, Wilford, died hours apart after a lifetime together.
The pair was in a Wisconsin hospital after contracting coronavirus, according to CNN affiliate WTMJ. Family members are unsure how the two were infected, the affiliate reported.
But because they both had the disease, they were able to stay together in their last moments — something most coronavirus patients can’t do with their loved ones. Family members across the nation have had to say their final goodbyes over FaceTime or in texts read as overwhelmed medical institutions have restricted visitors to help slow the virus’s spread.
But the couple, who had been together for 73 years, had beds next to each other and got to say “I love you” to each other one last time before they died Saturday, their granddaughter Natalie Lameka told the affiliate.
“They had been holding hands and that was just heartbreaking to hear but also heartwarming to hear,” Lameka said. “And we were just so thankful they were together and were aware they were together,” Lameka said.
The two were like the family’s “glue that holds us together,” their granddaughter said, and while losing them hurts, knowing they never had to part makes the pain a little easier.
“It was definitely hard,” she told the news station. “But it was bittersweet.”
Mary Kepler died six hours after her husband, the affiliate reported.
I asked you this once before with no reply so I'll try again. How many people has your police force actually arrested for violating coronavirus guidelines and rules?
I asked you this once before with no reply so I'll try again. How many people has your police force actually arrested for violating coronavirus guidelines and rules?
My apologies. I hadn't gone back to catch up on a lot of days worth of posts.
Only a few. But that has more to do with most of us simply refusing to enforce them. Like I mentioned above... drive up, take a look, drive a way. Playing games like basketball or full on soccer matches (which was starting to form up) aren't allowable.
I'm not busting up a pick up game. I'm not going to roll through church parking lots on Sunday morning to make sure every car has an empty space between them and all windows rolled up which is required under our governor's orders.
This 'silent' refusal to enforce the orders isn't our department's position on this. Our official position is that we are 'obligated' to enforce them. My direct supervisors aren't any more comfortable than we are which is why they are fine to let things be. We've only gotten away with it so far because Karen hasn't called to formally complain about the lack of action.
Well, somehow, this has to fit into the "feel good sad story" category.
Couple together for 73 years dies six hours apart from coronavirus NEWS by: CNNwire
Posted: Apr 29, 2020 / 07:40 AM EDT / Updated: Apr 29, 2020 / 07:40 AM EDT
WISCONSIN (CNN) — Mary Kepler and her husband, Wilford, died hours apart after a lifetime together.
The pair was in a Wisconsin hospital after contracting coronavirus, according to CNN affiliate WTMJ. Family members are unsure how the two were infected, the affiliate reported.
But because they both had the disease, they were able to stay together in their last moments — something most coronavirus patients can’t do with their loved ones. Family members across the nation have had to say their final goodbyes over FaceTime or in texts read as overwhelmed medical institutions have restricted visitors to help slow the virus’s spread.
But the couple, who had been together for 73 years, had beds next to each other and got to say “I love you” to each other one last time before they died Saturday, their granddaughter Natalie Lameka told the affiliate.
“They had been holding hands and that was just heartbreaking to hear but also heartwarming to hear,” Lameka said. “And we were just so thankful they were together and were aware they were together,” Lameka said.
The two were like the family’s “glue that holds us together,” their granddaughter said, and while losing them hurts, knowing they never had to part makes the pain a little easier.
“It was definitely hard,” she told the news station. “But it was bittersweet.”
Mary Kepler died six hours after her husband, the affiliate reported.
This is either the second time this has happened, or they are re-running a story that is a couple of weeks old, because I distinctly remember seeing this exact situation posted on Facespace because I remember making the joke "I bet he got there first and made her finish alone"
I asked you this once before with no reply so I'll try again. How many people has your police force actually arrested for violating coronavirus guidelines and rules?
I was surprised watching live pd the last couple of weekends how few officers in states like South Carolina and Louisiana are wearing masks or gloves
So you are saying that they are telling officers to arrest these people or to warn them and inform them? I mean from a policy standpoint.
When we come across a violation our policy is to a) educate them on the order b) issue multiple verbal warning c) contact our attorney before any citations or most likely at that point an arrest is made.
A and B is typically what we do anyway for lower level offenses like trespassing or city ordnance violations.
My dad for the second time in the last 4-5 weeks started running a temp. this time he was wheezing, had a fever of 101.3, blood oxy went down to 91%. First time they didn't test-this time they did and it came back positive this morning.
He is doing better though-fever gone for about 36 hours, eating and drinking and oxygen level up to 94.
Going to be 84 in a few months and has had dementia for about 6 years. All we can do is pray
The nursing home he is in is in northeast Ohio and is getting crushed-between staff and residents, they are probably over 40 cases now
I've said it from the beginning and the data is proving me right: the response has been unjustifiably disproportional to the issue. Had they just continued to push people to follow these voluntarily, we still would have gotten a highly effective participation rate.
There's a very apparent correlation, based on sound data, on what happens when governors put in shelter in place orders.
Not sure how you can go and say "these numbers mean nothing", but you do you.
So one would have to repeatedly not only violate the orders, but be caught at it several time for even a fine to be a possibility. That's pretty much what I thought. And even then you would have to contact an attorney before doing so.
I've said it from the beginning and the data is proving me right: the response has been unjustifiably disproportional to the issue. Had they just continued to push people to follow these voluntarily, we still would have gotten a highly effective participation rate.
There's a very apparent correlation, based on sound data, on what happens when governors put in shelter in place orders.
Not sure how you can go and say "these numbers mean nothing", but you do you.
There is a correlation, but an undefined one. You can't say with any level of certainty just how effective these measures are. And that's the problem.
You can't prove that if Kohl's opened it's doors and operated the exact same way a grocery store or walmart operates that it is any more of a danger to the public at large.
You can't say with any level of certainty just how effective these measures are.
By that same thought process you also can't say this with any level of certainty..... "Had they just continued to push people to follow these voluntarily, we still would have gotten a highly effective participation rate."..... yet you did.
I seem to remember DeWine saying something to the effect of "Officers won't be pulling people over/hyper-vigilant..." I got the feeling that you really had to be blatantly disregarding the order to even have an officer roll up on you.
It’s estimated that 300,000 people will die EVERY DAY from the economic shutdown, for a total of 130,000,000 deaths. Compare that to 200,000 global Covid-19 deaths. Why can people who feel vulnerable or afraid not just shelter in place themselves, so that these other people can live? We all agree that ‘flattening the curve’ does not stop coronavirus, but only slows it, and that viral transmission through communities is necessary for herd immunity. Seriously asking. I don’t understand the rationale of what we’re doing, nor how any thinking and feeling person supports it. “An additional 130 million people could be on the brink of starvation by the end of 2020 as a result of the outbreak and its economic ramifications.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1189326
I seem to remember DeWine saying something to the effect of "Officers won't be pulling people over/hyper-vigilant..." I got the feeling that you really had to be blatantly disregarding the order to even have an officer roll up on you.
That's true. Some wish to use the exception to the rule, the rare occurrences as the rule. It's great for shock value.
As with anything else, when you are taking actions that threaten the health and safety of others, steps must be taken to protect their possible victims.
So you're not actually talking about 300,000 people a day dying now. You're talking about it being "a possibility" if things don't improve by the end of the year. Got it.
It’s estimated that 300,000 people will die EVERY DAY from the economic shutdown, for a total of 130,000,000 deaths. Compare that to 200,000 global Covid-19 deaths. Why can people who feel vulnerable or afraid not just shelter in place themselves, so that these other people can live? We all agree that ‘flattening the curve’ does not stop coronavirus, but only slows it, and that viral transmission through communities is necessary for herd immunity. Seriously asking. I don’t understand the rationale of what we’re doing, nor how any thinking and feeling person supports it. “An additional 130 million people could be on the brink of starvation by the end of 2020 as a result of the outbreak and its economic ramifications.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1189326
Your article talks more about a food shortage killing millions rather than US stay at home orders killing people.
There's a way to produce food and get it to nations about to experience famine, one of which was not us listed, while also keeping people safe with stay at home orders.
I've said it from the beginning and the data is proving me right: the response has been unjustifiably disproportional to the issue. Had they just continued to push people to follow these voluntarily, we still would have gotten a highly effective participation rate.
There's a very apparent correlation, based on sound data, on what happens when governors put in shelter in place orders.
Not sure how you can go and say "these numbers mean nothing", but you do you.
There is a correlation, but an undefined one. You can't say with any level of certainty just how effective these measures are. And that's the problem.
You can't prove that if Kohl's opened it's doors and operated the exact same way a grocery store or walmart operates that it is any more of a danger to the public at large.
Devil, I don't see it that way. You are right in that the risk is relatively the same but the reward is much different. We need food, medicines, household necessities to survive. We can live without Kohl's cash and the latest spring fashion. Besides Walmart, Target, Meijer all sell clothing essentials, electronics, etc. So there is a source for most things we need. So the objection is really about competition and jobs versus limiting exposure to as many as possible.
You can't say with any level of certainty just how effective these measures are.
By that same thought process you also can't say this with any level of certainty..... "Had they just continued to push people to follow these voluntarily, we still would have gotten a highly effective participation rate."..... yet you did.
Indeed I can't and I don't have a problem admitting that.
But we jumped from voluntary compliance to criminalizing non-compliance without justification. Social distancing works. But again, we don't even have a general idea of the efficacy. So how do you tell people "the restrictions work. We can't tell you how much they work, but more is better so we're going to increase restrictions AND put you in jail if you refuse to comply"?
So you're not actually talking about 300,000 people a day dying now. You're talking about it being "a possibility" if things don't improve by the end of the year. Got it.
Death projections have been way off since the beginning of this, and have been lowered numerous times. So it seems everything has been "possibilities". Got it?
Once again, those who have "gone to jail" are very few and far between. Making a point out of something that rarely happens seems rather more for sensationalism than anything.
You seem to wish to ignore very health expert in America and their evidence of how much these measures help. The vast majority of Americans disagree with you as do I.
We all know laws are in place to help protect innocent victims. These laws are no different. You contention seems to be based on, "Yeah, but how much do they help"?
You do realize more Americans have died from the virus than died fighting the Vietnam war, right? The only difference is they would arrest you if you didn't offer to die back then.
I've said it from the beginning and the data is proving me right: the response has been unjustifiably disproportional to the issue. Had they just continued to push people to follow these voluntarily, we still would have gotten a highly effective participation rate.
There's a very apparent correlation, based on sound data, on what happens when governors put in shelter in place orders.
Not sure how you can go and say "these numbers mean nothing", but you do you.
There is a correlation, but an undefined one. You can't say with any level of certainty just how effective these measures are. And that's the problem.
You can't prove that if Kohl's opened it's doors and operated the exact same way a grocery store or walmart operates that it is any more of a danger to the public at large.
Devil, I don't see it that way. You are right in that the risk is relatively the same but the reward is much different. We need food, medicines, household necessities to survive. We can live without Kohl's cash and the latest spring fashion. Besides Walmart, Target, Meijer all sell clothing essentials, electronics, etc. So there is a source for most things we need. So the objection is really about competition and jobs versus limiting exposure to as many as possible.
I see your point. But if the exception is truly about "necessities", then they should also be limiting what you can purchase. Every minute I spend in that store that is open for things that aren't necessary or essential, is another minute I am putting some random person at risk.
And none of these restrictions are actually based on numbers. It's solely the judgement of the Governor in my state. I won't speak for other states but it doesn't sound like they have much in the way of accountability or oversight either. On the radio just a few minutes ago our Governor admitted that we're flattening the curve (which was the original goal) but that he wants to see "a little more". What the hell is that supposed to mean?
You know how we could really tell what we are doing is necessary and legal? Governors, legislators, mayors, and councils should forego their pay for as long as the gov't has private business shut down. The people in charge of these need more skin in the game than just whether or not they'll get re-elected.
The point is that you don't have to make special trips or go to more places to get what you need as well as what you want. On one hand it seems you are against restrictions while on the other hand suggesting more restrictions.
The point is that you don't have to make special trips or go to more places to get what you need as well as what you want. On one hand it seems you are against restrictions while on the other hand suggesting more restrictions.
(Yes, Interment is rather sensationalist... but the premise still stands. Govt inevitably gets an inch and tries to take a mile. You and many others have commented on multiple other topics about abuse of power and over reach of police authority. Please don't be short sighted enough to think that what you are willing to let happen won't be used and/or abused going forward. We're lucky enough that our form of gov't affords us the opportunity to put the genie back in the bottle, but that typically doesn't happen without a lot pain.
I've said it from the beginning and the data is proving me right: the response has been unjustifiably disproportional to the issue. Had they just continued to push people to follow these voluntarily, we still would have gotten a highly effective participation rate.
There's a very apparent correlation, based on sound data, on what happens when governors put in shelter in place orders.
Not sure how you can go and say "these numbers mean nothing", but you do you.
There is a correlation, but an undefined one. You can't say with any level of certainty just how effective these measures are. And that's the problem.
You can't prove that if Kohl's opened it's doors and operated the exact same way a grocery store or walmart operates that it is any more of a danger to the public at large.
100% truth.
The measures taken have been effective. Which individual measures account for the bulk of the effectiveness is up for grabs. It is my bet, and that of many people - including Sweden - that basic measures take care of the vast majority of the required effectiveness and all of the extra, most restrictive measures, are nothing but an exercise in diminishing returns.
It’s estimated that 300,000 people will die EVERY DAY from the economic shutdown, for a total of 130,000,000 deaths. Compare that to 200,000 global Covid-19 deaths. Why can people who feel vulnerable or afraid not just shelter in place themselves, so that these other people can live? We all agree that ‘flattening the curve’ does not stop coronavirus, but only slows it, and that viral transmission through communities is necessary for herd immunity. Seriously asking. I don’t understand the rationale of what we’re doing, nor how any thinking and feeling person supports it. “An additional 130 million people could be on the brink of starvation by the end of 2020 as a result of the outbreak and its economic ramifications.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1189326
That sounds like a projection model even more grossly inflated than the COVID ones. Like, where they take absolute worst-case scenario for every metric so that it compounds.
It’s estimated that 300,000 people will die EVERY DAY from the economic shutdown, for a total of 130,000,000 deaths. Compare that to 200,000 global Covid-19 deaths. Why can people who feel vulnerable or afraid not just shelter in place themselves, so that these other people can live? We all agree that ‘flattening the curve’ does not stop coronavirus, but only slows it, and that viral transmission through communities is necessary for herd immunity. Seriously asking. I don’t understand the rationale of what we’re doing, nor how any thinking and feeling person supports it. “An additional 130 million people could be on the brink of starvation by the end of 2020 as a result of the outbreak and its economic ramifications.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1189326
That sounds like a projection model even more grossly inflated than the COVID ones. Like, where they take absolute worst-case scenario for every metric so that it compounds.
Also, that HAS to be a global number.
The numbers are global and focus mainly on impoverished areas of East Africa, war torn areas like Yemen and Syria, etc...
From the article...
Famine in as many as three dozen countries is "a very real and dangerous possibility" due to ongoing wars and conflicts, economic crises and natural disasters, World Food Program Executive Director David Beasley told the U.N. Security Council during a virtual briefing.
Before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, 821 million people experience chronic hunger while another 135 million people face "crisis levels of hunger or worse," Beasley said while quoting findings from the agency's new report on global food crises.
Beasley pointed to the economic crisis in Lebanon, wars in Syria and Yemen, and the swarms of desert locusts destroying crops for much of East Africa as pre-existing factors that were already setting 2020 up to be a dangerous year for hunger.
I know that some cities in Pakistan were either not locking down or the people were deliberately ignoring them because locking down would mean death by starvation.
Interestingly, we're not seeing stories about mass COVID outbreaks there, either. Or, at least I haven't seen any, but I've also not been following thing the way I was when this was ramping up.
April 28: 2,470 April 27: 1,384 April 26: 1,157 April 25: 2,065 April 24: 1,957 April 23: 2,340 April 22: 2,358 April 21: 2,683 April 20: 1,952 April 19: 1,570
Total number of coronavirus cases in the U.S.: 1,050,071
No doubt about it, actually. We'd have to drop below 1,250 deaths for every single day from now until then in order to NOT hit 100k by then. I just don't think that's going to happen.
I think it is far more likely that we hit 125k by then. In fact, just maintaining our current average for those last ten days listed will put us at 120k by May 31 and at 100k by May 21/22, if I did my math correctly.
The hope is that, of course, it will burn itself out.
Well, that's just not going to be happening. I haven't seen any numbers on it, but I would venture a guess that even in the current lockdown, we're still above 1. We're just not going to get below 1, and even if we do, we will not be able to sustain it long enough for burnout to occur.
Additionally, even if we somehow did, unless we got the entire rest of the world to do it at the exact same time and nobody relaxes measures until it is eradicated, it will simply come back and in three months, again, we'll be right where we are.
Quite simply, the most appropo thing I can think of is this:
“If you're going through hell, keep going.” --Winston Churchill
Meaning, don't stop in it and hope for cooler weather; keep going. For us, that means marching toward herd immunity in a manner that doesn't swamp the Emergency Rooms.
Exactly. The whole point of self-quarantine was give hospitals a chance to prepare without overwhelming them, give ppe manufactures time to ramp up, and give scientists an opportunity to better understand what we were dealing with. It was never meant to be a cure. Like you said, unless you manage to completely eradicate it from the world (which will never happen), it's always going to come back at some point.
Now that we've had a chance to prepare, we need to do what we can to avoid spreading it, and take further precautions if you're high risk. If certain areas have flare-ups, then start enabling stricter guidelines. Continue to ramp up production of medical goods and always look to adapt and gain more knowledge. But we can't just drive ourselves into bankruptcy and starvation hoping it just goes away completely.
I was in the hospital on the 1st of April and didn't get to do the April Fools Prank on my users.
So, we are having it tomorrow, and I'm turning one of my games into the Zombie Apocalypse. The users are going to completely flip out and I'm going to laugh at them all day lol
Guinea Pigs. Living Experiment Subjects Crash Test Dummies
DeWine is incrementally re-opening here in OH. I have a dental appt in 2 weeks. I will go, but I'm still going to stay home as much as possible. I'll be masked until I'm in the chair, and I'll be masked before I leave.
Until widespread testing comes to me, I'll continue behaving as if I'm an asymptomatic carrier. My mask is for others' welfare. I was raised in the church. I was raised to exercise judgement. I was raised to be a good citizen. For me, this is not much of an imposition, if it means doing my part for my fellow citizen(s).
Groundhog day.... WTF is wrong with people. People are dying every single day by the hundreds just in Ohio alone yet some *insert words that would get me banned* are worried about pot instead of covid-19. Sick, stupid, ignorant, and assinine. Hey Ohio lets worry about people dying instead of people just trying to survive. I always say I am not shocked by folks anymore, BUT This shocks me. Stupid is as stupid does.
This thing has been losing steam in the media for a few weeks. Time was every single suggestion when I opened my browser was Covid this and Covid that and that ended at least 2 weeks ago and has basically dwindled to nothing. It's all pretty strange to me and I have zero insight to offer on it...too busy doing my job keeping a hospital stocked that is using none of those supplies.
This thing has been losing steam in the media for a few weeks. Time was every single suggestion when I opened my browser was Covid this and Covid that and that ended at least 2 weeks ago and has basically dwindled to nothing. It's all pretty strange to me and I have zero insight to offer on it...too busy doing my job keeping a hospital stocked that is using none of those supplies.
Hmmm... been just the opposite for me. I am sick of COVID, COVID, COVID... News, emails, social media, most casual conversations in the real world. But the circles we live in are probably different. The coding community tends to lean liberal on news, I watch liberal news outlets, and my friends tend to be more liberal...
There's nothing new with it... it's just still there, not going away, nothing is changing. Infections are still happening, it is still spreading, people are still dying. There are no updates or no progress on treatments. Vaccines are too far off to to have anything to write about. There is no shock and surprise or sensationalism with it any longer; it has become the mundane killer.
Part 1: "The future of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned from pandemic influenza" (Apr 30, 2020)
Welcome to "COVID-19: The CIDRAP Viewpoint." We appreciate that other expert groups have produced detailed plans for mitigating SARS-CoV-2 transmission and for reopening the country after stay-at-home orders and other important mitigation steps are eased. Our intent with the Viewpoint is to add key information and address issues that haven't garnered the attention they deserve and reflect the unique experience and expertise among the CIDRAP team and our expert consultants.
We will address timely issues with straight talk and clarity. And the steps we will recommend will be based on our current reality and the best available data. Our goal is to help planners envision some of the situations that might present themselves later this year or next year so that they can take key steps now, while there’s still time.
"COVID-19: The CIDRAP Viewpoint" will address such topics as pandemic scenarios going forward, crisis communication, testing, contact tracing, surveillance, supply chains, and epidemiology issues and key areas for research. We will release approximately one to two reports per week.
Our hope is that our effort can help you plan more effectively and understand the many aspects of this pandemic more clearly—and for you and your family, friends, and colleagues to be safer.
In the first report, published Apr 30, 2020, "The future of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned from pandemic influenza," Kristine Moore, MD, MPH, Marc Lipsitch, DPhil, John Barry, MA, and Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, paint a picture of the pandemic and detail how it's behaving more like past influenza pandemics than like any coronavirus has to date. And, because of that, certain inferences can be drawn — such as the fact that it may well last 18 to 24 months, especially given that only 5% to 15% of the U.S. population is likely infected at this point.
Key recommendations from the report:
States, territories, and tribal health authorities should plan for the worst-case scenario (which involves a large second peak of cases in the fall of 2020), including no vaccine availability or herd immunity.
Government agencies and healthcare delivery organizations should develop strategies to ensure adequate protection for healthcare workers when disease incidence surges.
Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers for reinstituting mitigation measures, for dealing with disease peaks when they occur.
Risk communication messaging from government officials should incorporate the concept that this pandemic will not be over soon and that people need to be prepared for possible periodic resurgences of disease over the next 2 years.
The first CIDRAP Viewpoint report lays out three scenarios for how cases might ebb and flow in the coming months. No one knows exactly how this virus will behave. But, based on what scientists have recorded so far and on previous influenza pandemics, the report illustrates some of the possibilities.
On your first item, they are basing things on the assumption that this will behave similar to other known coronaviruses and there will be immunity, and even if that immunity degrades with time, it will still prevent more severe illnesses on reinfection
On the second item, if you didn't notice, they have a pretty wide range there. 5% is still 16-17 million people and 15% is about 50 million.
It is no secret that the official number is not real. As you know, it merely represents the sickest cases that require someone to go to the E.R. So, there are a LARGE number of people out there that did get sick, but not sick enough to be admitted. We also know that this virus has a VERY large percentage that remains completely asymptomatic. From that, it is quite easy to say that we have anywhere from 10 to 50 people out there that have had it for every positive test we've recorded. I think it would be a dangerous stretch to think that it is more than 50 per positive case, so I think 15% is a pretty safe & realistic upper limit.
Not listed in the summary/about article, but covered in the PDF is the following:
3 Scenarios following the first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020:
Scenario 1: a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a 1-to 2-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021
Scenario 2: a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020 and one or more smaller subsequent waves in 2021
Scenario 3: a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and case occurrence, but without a clear wave pattern.
Governor Mike DeWine @GovMikeDeWine Social distancing and face coverings are still very, very important. May 29th is the expiration date for the new order, but don't read too much into that date. We will be issuing new orders throughout the month. No one should be too fixated on the date.
What would be interesting to know,how many of those 1000+ in ICU have either recovered or passed on. In other words,what is the net gain,or lose,in ICU capacity.
Instead of some cumulative total that is almost meaningless, how about just give us the current total and it's percentage of capacity? Also, what exactly is our surge capacity?
Given that the entire point of all of these measures is to prevent a situation our hospitals cannot handle, why aren't they giving us a clearer picture of what they can handle and what they are currently handling?
Not listed in the summary/about article, but covered in the PDF is the following:
3 Scenarios following the first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020:
Scenario 1: a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a 1-to 2-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021
Scenario 2: a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020 and one or more smaller subsequent waves in 2021
Scenario 3: a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and case occurrence, but without a clear wave pattern.
Personally, I anticipate Scenario 2.
If you look at the total new cases in the United States the last few days, the new case total is going up by about 6-8% per day. On Tuesday, we were around just under 26k I believe, on Wednesday 28,400 and yesterday 30,829, today we are just under 30k and have 13 or 14 states still to report.
I wonder if this is more than just a short trend, more testing, some areas relaxed guidelines. Some states like Tennessee and Georgia had big jumps today over yesterday. Georgia was 500+ cases higher (613 to 1173) and Tennessee went from 369 yesterday to 1156 today
Instead of some cumulative total that is almost meaningless, how about just give us the current total and it's percentage of capacity? Also, what exactly is our surge capacity?
Given that the entire point of all of these measures is to prevent a situation our hospitals cannot handle, why aren't they giving us a clearer picture of what they can handle and what they are currently handling?
As I said a couple days ago, my dad is in a nursing home and they thought he was positive about 5 weeks ago (the nursing home had zero confirmed cases at that time) but they never tested him for sure. they treated the fever and it went away in a couple days and they put him in iso. This week he had a fever and respiratory problems so they put him on oxygen and this time tested for covid and it was positive. He was still in isolation and now in that home between staff and patients they have approx 100 cases.
Also, one of my sisters put something on social media about my dad yesterday and one of her co workers wrote back about her grandma (in her 90's) who was in a nursing home with dementia but doing ok and she got covid a few weeks ago and passed within a few days.
When they went and got the death certificate this week, they put down that she died of dementia or Alzheimers, they never mentioned a word that she died of covid-so my sister asked me if I think they are not counting all the people who are dying of covid-of course they are.
the family of this grandma that died said that they are going back and want them to reissue the death certificate cause she didn't die of dementia.
I think the most frustrating thing for me is HOW things are being reported. Especially deaths. Did you die FROM covid, or did you die WITH covid.
Even Ohio is reporting new deaths - deaths that occurred weeks ago - as 'new deaths' in the 'daily dead' section. In other words, maybe 20 people died today from 'covid', or died 'with' covid, but hey, we have 20 autopsies from 2 weeks so the report says "40 new deaths".
And this, just now:
United States Coronavirus Cases: 1,126,432 Deaths: 65,598 Recovered: 160,179
What's up with the other 900,655 people?
Why does the u.s. have so many more cases, and so many more dead to covid?
Instead of some cumulative total that is almost meaningless, how about just give us the current total and it's percentage of capacity? Also, what exactly is our surge capacity?
Given that the entire point of all of these measures is to prevent a situation our hospitals cannot handle, why aren't they giving us a clearer picture of what they can handle and what they are currently handling?
As I said a couple days ago, my dad is in a nursing home and they thought he was positive about 5 weeks ago (the nursing home had zero confirmed cases at that time) but they never tested him for sure. they treated the fever and it went away in a couple days and they put him in iso. This week he had a fever and respiratory problems so they put him on oxygen and this time tested for covid and it was positive. He was still in isolation and now in that home between staff and patients they have approx 100 cases.
Also, one of my sisters put something on social media about my dad yesterday and one of her co workers wrote back about her grandma (in her 90's) who was in a nursing home with dementia but doing ok and she got covid a few weeks ago and passed within a few days.
When they went and got the death certificate this week, they put down that she died of dementia or Alzheimers, they never mentioned a word that she died of covid-so my sister asked me if I think they are not counting all the people who are dying of covid-of course they are.
the family of this grandma that died said that they are going back and want them to reissue the death certificate cause she didn't die of dementia.
Sorry to read this. The sad thing is, is that this is happening all over. I see it in the facilities I work in. What the news stories report and what’s reported as the official known public death count is NOT correct. I know the actual numbers in many of the local facilities. It’s much higher than what’s being reported.
I hope you and your family get through this. I’ll say a prayer for your father.
Why does the u.s. have so many more cases, and so many more dead to covid?
I have a few thoughts. First, obesity is rampant in our society. It’s the leading comorbity of COVID. There’s a reason why you see CPAP machine adds on TV. It’s not because we as humans have suddenly forgotten to breathe while we sleep. It’s because we’re fat. Obesity and respiratory issues go hand in hand.
Secondly, American exceptionalism. We as a culture act like these things don’t happen to us. Because “We’Re tHE GrEATesT CouNtrY oN eArTH”. So we’re flippant about our approach and our reaction. We’re soft and spoiled. “How dare you tell me I can’t get my haircut! That’s fascism!!” ...or some other ism that is not fully understood by the person throwing it around.
Leading to my third reason. We’re a poorly educated citizenry. Science is hard. Facts have become tiresome to us. We ‘know what we know’ and no one can tell us different. So “if no one I know is sick, then this entire thing is a hoax or some other nonsense and I should be able to get my hair cut. Yada yada.”
My hair was in bad shape even before the barber was closed up. It's crazy now.
Consider shaving your head. If I knew back in the day how good this felt, I might have considered doing it way before I did. There's a good thread on here from about 2 years ago with good info on head shaving.
(CNN)The White House is blocking Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the administration's coronavirus task force, from testifying on Capitol Hill next week, according to a spokesman from a key House committee.
"The Appropriations Committee sought Dr. Anthony Fauci as a witness at next week's Labor-HHS-Education Subcommittee hearing on COVID-19 response. We have been informed by an administration official that the White House has blocked Dr. Fauci from testifying," House Appropriations Committee spokesman Evan Hollander said in a statement Friday. White House deputy press secretary Judd Deere confirmed the decision. "While the Trump Administration continues its whole-of-government response to COVID-19, including safely opening up America again and expediting vaccine development, it is counter-productive to have the very individuals involved in those efforts appearing at Congressional hearings," Deere said in a statement. "We are committed to working with Congress to offer testimony at the appropriate time." This story has been updated to correct the last name of House Appropriations Committee spokesman Evan Hollander in one reference.
We're better than much of Europe. Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, and Switzerland are all worse off.
Additionally, that is also just about the top of the list for countries with the most cases, per capita or otherwise. We aren't doing too badly at all.
Didn't Sweden try to develop "herd mentality" by not instituting stay at home orders? I seem to recall hearing that it hasn't worked.
Yes, that's them, and actually, it is working. They estimate that Stockholm will have herd immunity by mid-May, if I'm recalling correctly.
Yes, their death rate is higher, but they admit that they didn't explicitly make it a priority to protect their elderly and nursing home residents.
With that modification, they are actually a pretty solid model to emulate. We'll find out soon enough if we can pull it off here. If people just stay disciplined with their masks, hand washing, and distancing, that should be the only measures we need.
It's a solid model to kill off a large percentage of the elderly?
I can't endorse that.
A lot of people who come off of covid end up with lung damage of some sort, too. They may survive but their quality of life is going to end up quite poor.
I had read an article earlier that said that they don't yet have widespread testing for the virus, and/or antibodies, in Sweden, so they really don't know if it's working or not. All they know is that their death rate is some 10-11% higher than other countries using stay at home.
My wife and I missed seeing our grandkids at Christmas because we both had severe cases of influenza A. It hit me so hard that I was hospitalized twice and had to be sent home on oxygen and steroids to recover. Recovery was slow, I wasn't feeling like myself and able to go off the oxygen until mid February. By the time I felt good enough to have company or to travel to see family, we had about a 10 day window until covid-19 became a thing and distancing became our new norm. We missed seeing the grandkids during that window, so we have been piling up Christmas and birthday presents.
Fast forward to yesterday, Saturday May 2nd. We decided to take a small road trip and go see our kids and grandkids that live just a little over an hour away, as well as stops to see my mother and brother. We loaded the overdue gifts and called ahead to plan driveway visits so we could maintain our social distancing but finally get to see them even if only for abbreviated visits.
The day went well and we were feeling good about the visits. It was great to see all of them and we were able to do so while maintaining social distancing because I am high risk, and everyone understood so we had no issues. On the way home my wife asked me to go the back way that takes us through the country and several small towns including Circleville Ohio.
During our final visit, we missed seeing my son-in-law because he and some friends were taking part in a motorcycle ride for Vets or something that we didn't fully grasp at the time my daughter relayed the info to us. And as we headed out for home we kept seeing groups of bikers everywhere. They were in numbers at every gas station, in parking lots, and gravel pull off areas along the road as well as in many many large groups traveling the road. We passed hundreds and hundreds before we started questioning what was going on beyond it being a nice day to ride.
We couldn't get over how many bikes were out and all these groups gathered in lots and along the road, few if any wearing mask or social distancing and I began to wonder if it was some kind of protest, trump having the backing of bikers and all... About the time I expressed that thought my wife cut me off and reminded me that my son-in-law was on some kind of vet ride and maybe all this was part of it. So we just took in the scenes as we passed, mostly in disbelief after weeks in 'stay home' mode and knowing death tolls are still rising while we are being pushed to reopen the economy.
As we got close to the edge of Circleville, traffic slowed to almost a stand still and after passing what I surmised to be at least a thousand bikers at this point, it seemed that their numbers and density were just growing more and more. We wondered if this was causing the slow down in traffic when I remembered that on Friday night I had seen some FB posts with videos of circleville group holding a citywide cruise, like a cruise-in but actually just people driving around town on a certain path of streets like a parade of cars. Vintage and modern cars and trucks came out in great support to help raise food donations for local pantries, a good cause. We wondered if this was a whole weekend thing and the cause of the slow traffic.
This route through old downtown Circleville which normally would take about ten minutes to traverse, became a forty five minute bumper to bumper ordeal! We must have passed another thousand bikes with a large spattering of vintage cars, old and new hotrods, and plenty of spectators. Every lot and parking space on the stretch was full of bikes, cars, and people in large groups. Ten foot wide sidewalks were mostly full of people standing outside of open bars and restaurants serving takeout. Some shops had sidewalk sales set up and under normal circumstances this would have just looked like everybody having a good time. It was reminiscent of a Sturgis Rally/Spring Break scene, or as close to that as you could muster in small town Ohio.
The root of our disbelief and shock was that nobody, and I mean nobody, seemed to be social distancing or even taking the slightest precautions for preventing the spread of COVID-19. There were NO MASK in sight other than our own. I had to stop at a medium sized convenience station to get gas and grab a couple of cold drinks. Out of the 50 or so standing in the lot or in the store, I was the only person wearing a mask. This was before we got to Circleville. There, I wouldn't have even stopped because there were just too many people.
After getting home and looking on FB, I found out that the bikers had all come out for a "Final Ride" with a veteran that is dying in late stage cancer. Over 10,000 bikers took part in this tribute and yes it was a touchingly great cause just like the cruise for food was... BUT I am more than a little concerned that people will die for their participation and expect a large uptick in new COVID cases over the next few weeks now. If this is what 'reopening' looks like the weekend before it starts, I dread what I think is going to happen in Ohio.
I'm not sure if I witnessed the lack of common sense enmasse, the great but stupid balls of defiance, or people who genuinely did not feel there is a threat from COVID due to partisan leadership and misinformation... But to me, it was scary, very scary. And I hope nobody loses their lives over it.
Meanwhile, I think I'll be back in stay home mode for the foreseeable future to see how this thing plays out. My wife's company back peddled on Thursday extending her work from home status until the 18th. We are well stocked and can easily stay secluded with minimal exposure until then. Good luck to everybody that has to go back into this 'economy' at this point. I think you are going to need it from what I saw yesterday.
I needed to go and get some lawn care products and wanted to stop at an Amish market on the way home just south of Boardman. Went to an Ace Hardware that was pretty busy for a Saturday at noon, got my stuff and was standing in line in my favorite Browns mask my wife made me. I was looking around and I would guess that everyone over 45-50 had a mask on except one overweight fellow using a cane. Only a couple young ladies under the age of 45 had a mask on-none of the guys did.
And then the lady in checkout in front of me asks one of the 3 workers behind an 8 foot checkout why they are not wearing masks-the one kid goes to explain to her that they are a pain to wear and keep sliding down, you can't wear one all day so they asked their boss if they can go without and he said sure-don't need to wear one-so none of the 6-7 I saw working were wearing a mask, gloves, nothing
Seems like the protest groups for re-opening are listing names of businesses that require customers to wear masks to boycott. Good I wouldn't want the stupid asses to shop where I shop. And then there is this:
City's proclamation requiring face masks in stores and restaurants is amended after threats of violence Hollie Silverman By Leah Asmelash and Hollie Silverman, CNN
Updated 8:25 AM ET, Sun May 3, 2020 CDC recommends everyone voluntarily wear a mask in public
(CNN)An emergency proclamation issued Thursday in Stillwater, Oklahoma, requiring the use of face masks in stores and restaurants was amended Friday after threats of violence.
"In the short time beginning on May 1, 2020, that face coverings have been required for entry into stores/restaurants, store employees have been threatened with physical violence and showered with verbal abuse," Stillwater City Manager Norman McNickle said in a statement. "In addition, there has been one threat of violence using a firearm. This has occurred in three short hours and in the face of clear medical evidence that face coverings helps contain the spread of Covid-19." Due to the threats of violence the city has decided to amend their emergency order but still want people to wear face masks whenever possible, the statement said.
The proclamation issued Thursday required, among other things, businesses to require patrons to cover their faces to combat the spread of coronavirus. But on Friday, Mayor Will Joyce softened the rule to encourage, not require, face coverings, after several reports emerged of employees being verbally abused and being threatened with physical violence while trying to enforce the order -- all in just three hours of the rule going into effect. "Many of those with objections cite the mistaken belief the requirement is unconstitutional, and under their theory, one cannot be forced to wear a mask. No law or court supports this view," said City Manager Norman McNickle in a statement. "It is further distressing that these people, while exercising their believed rights, put others at risk."
McNickle went on to explain the importance of face coverings in preventing the spread of coronavirus. The masks have been recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Oklahoma State Department of Health. "It is unfortunate and distressing that those who refuse and threaten violence are so self-absorbed as to not follow what is a simple show of respect and kindness to others," he said. Still, the city is changing the rule, as officials "cannot, in clear conscience, put our local business community in harm's way, nor can the police be everywhere," McNickle said. Since April 3, the CDC has recommended that Americans should wear "cloth coverings" in public places.
The updated guidance was in light of new evidence that many people were spreading the virus asymptomatically -- meaning that even people not exhibiting symptoms were spreading it by coughing, sneezing or even simply talking in close proximity. "The idea about the face mask is to prevent the virus from coming out of somebody's mouth and nose, mostly out of their mouth," said Dr. Joseph Vinetz, a professor in the infectious disease section at Yale School of Medicine, to CNN in April. "They prevent somebody, when they talk or sometimes when they sneeze or cough, from expelling virus and leading to infection in other people." Masks, however, are not a substitute for social distancing, which is still required to slow the spread of the virus.
Not listed in the summary/about article, but covered in the PDF is the following:
3 Scenarios following the first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020:
Scenario 1: a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a 1-to 2-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021
Scenario 2: a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020 and one or more smaller subsequent waves in 2021
Scenario 3: a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and case occurrence, but without a clear wave pattern.
Personally, I anticipate Scenario 2.
Just in time for flu season. I get a shot every year and told the wife she best do the same this year for once.
Yeah I live near Emerald Isle, NC and there is little to no sign of stay at home. Yesterday the traffic going over the intracoastal was about as normal a day as I've seen. This, despite a lighted highway sign telling people to stay home was lit before crossing the bridge. It was hilarious. I went to the store, did my shopping and went back home. And there was still a steady stream of traffic.
I had read an article earlier that said that they don't yet have widespread testing for the virus, and/or antibodies, in Sweden, so they really don't know if it's working or not. All they know is that their death rate is some 10-11% higher than other countries using stay at home.
They have a comparable population to Ohio, and have been testing essentially the same amount as Ohio. They have slightly higher cases, but a lot more deaths. The majority of their extra deaths is because they failed to protect their elderly and they say they would do that part differently if they could.
It's a solid model to kill off a large percentage of the elderly?
I can't endorse that.
A lot of people who come off of covid end up with lung damage of some sort, too. They may survive but their quality of life is going to end up quite poor.
No, it's a solid model all-around, except it needs to be modified to protect the elderly and the at-risk.
There's only one way to exit this: we have to go through it. They've shown conclusively that we not only CAN, but SHOULD go through it. Yes, a small percentage of the small percentage that gets hospitalized end up with permanent damage. That's not even enough to keep a drug from getting FDA approval, it absolutely shouldn't be considered enough to keep the world shut down. Make no mistake... this thing IS bad, but it ain't THAT bad.
We took the correct and safe route and shut down. It is better to do too much than to little. Now, it's time to block out the media and their sensationalism and recognize that we overshot and we can pull back a bit, now.
Hell, Sweden *should* have its hospitals swamped and overwhelmed.... but they don't. Since that is the ONLY reason we shut down like we did, it is time to correct that.
And besides that, I cannot fathom anyone taking an honest look at what Sweden is doing and their results and finding fault or illogical reasoning. So, if Fauci disagrees, I question his logic and reasoning.
I am a subcontractor,which is to say,I whore myself out to the highest bidder. Right now the highest bidder is in dire straits.They go under,I might also.My work has been sporadic,but it is starting to pick up,and the reason is quite ironic,porn. As you know,the internet pipes are not finite,only so much traffic can flow.With everyone at home the demand is exceeding the capability. The smart companies are moving video on demand away from the core,that's where I come in.Installing servers in more remote locations frees up alot of bandwidth,allowing essential services to operate more efficiently.And in a strange twist of fate,most of the components of these servers come from China,which was in lockdown,delaying deployment. My industry has been in a weird catch-22,everyone knows how to fix the problem,but only the largest companies have the muscle to get the equip.needed to do so. With the generous Gov't handouts,70% of the installers are sitting at home on their asses getting fat. My family has always believed in sacrifice and volunteering,these times are no different.Someone has to do it and I will be that person.
She Predicted the Coronavirus. What Does She Foresee Next? Frank Bruni 1 day ago
I told Laurie Garrett that she might as well change her name to Cassandra. Everyone is calling her that anyway.
Also watch: COVID-19 ground reports from across India (Video by News18)
She and I were Zooming — that’s a verb now, right? — and she pulled out a 2017 book, “Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.” It notes that Garrett, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, was prescient not only about the impact of H.I.V. but also about the emergence and global spread of more contagious pathogens.
“I’m a double Cassandra,” Garrett said.
Cassandra, of course, was the prophetess of Greek mythology who was doomed to issue unheeded warnings. What Garrett has been warning most direly about — in her 1994 best seller, “The Coming Plague,” and in subsequent books and speeches, including TED Talks — is a pandemic like the current one.
She saw it coming. So a big part of what I wanted to ask her about was what she sees coming next. Steady yourself. Her crystal ball is dark.
Despite the stock market’s swoon for it, remdesivir probably isn’t our ticket out, she told me. “It’s not curative,” she said, pointing out that the strongest claims so far are that it merely shortens the recovery of Covid-19 patients. “We need either a cure or a vaccine.”
But she can’t envision that vaccine anytime in the next year, while Covid-19 will remain a crisis much longer than that.
“I’ve been telling everybody that my event horizon is about 36 months, and that’s my best-case scenario,” she said.
They’ll re-evaluate the importance of travel. They’ll reassess their use of mass transit. They’ll revisit the need for face-to-face business meetings. They’ll reappraise having their kids go to college out of state.
So, I asked, is “back to normal,” a phrase that so many people cling to, a fantasy?
“This is history right in front of us,” Garrett said. “Did we go ‘back to normal’ after 9/11? No. We created a whole new normal. We securitized the United States. We turned into an antiterror state. And it affected everything. We couldn’t go into a building without showing ID and walking through a metal detector, and couldn’t get on airplanes the same way ever again. That’s what’s going to happen with this.”
Maybe in political engagement, too, Garrett said.
If America enters the next wave of coronavirus infections “with the wealthy having gotten somehow wealthier off this pandemic by hedging, by shorting, by doing all the nasty things that they do, and we come out of our rabbit holes and realize, ‘Oh, my God, it’s not just that everyone I love is unemployed or underemployed and can’t make their maintenance or their mortgage payments or their rent payments, but now all of a sudden those jerks that were flying around in private helicopters are now flying on private personal jets and they own an island that they go to and they don’t care whether or not our streets are safe,’ then I think we could have massive political disruption.”
“Just as we come out of our holes and see what 25 percent unemployment looks like,” she said, “we may also see what collective rage looks like.”
Garrett has been on my radar since the early 1990s, when she worked for Newsday and did some of the best reporting anywhere on AIDS. Her Pulitzer, in 1996, was for coverage of Ebola in Zaire. She has been a fellow at Harvard’s School of Public Health, was a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and consulted on the 2011 movie “Contagion.”
Her expertise, in other words, has long been in demand. But not like now.
Each morning when she opens her email, “there’s the Argentina request, Hong Kong request, Taiwan request, South Africa request, Morocco, Turkey,” she told me. “Not to mention all of the American requests.” It made me feel bad about taking more than an hour of her time on Monday. But not so bad that I didn’t cadge another 30 minutes on Thursday.
She said she wasn’t surprised that a coronavirus wrought this devastation, that China minimized what was going on or that the response in many places was sloppy and sluggish. She’s Cassandra, after all.
But there is one part of the story she couldn’t have predicted: that the paragon of sloppiness and sluggishness would be the United States.
“I never imagined that,” she said. “Ever.”
The highlights — or, rather, lowlights — include President Trump’s initial acceptance of the assurances by President Xi Jinping of China that all would be well, his scandalous complacency from late January through early March, his cheerleading for unproven treatments, his musings about cockamamie ones, his abdication of muscular federal guidance for the states and his failure, even now, to sketch out a detailed long-range strategy for containing the coronavirus.
Having long followed Garrett’s work, I can attest that it’s not driven by partisanship. She praised George W. Bush for fighting H.I.V. in Africa.
But she called Trump “the most incompetent, foolhardy buffoon imaginable.”
And she’s shocked that America isn’t in a position to lead the global response to this crisis, in part because science and scientists have been so degraded under Trump.
Referring to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta and its analogues abroad, she told me: “I’ve heard from every C.D.C. in the world — the European C.D.C., the African C.D.C., China C.D.C. — and they say, ‘Normally our first call is to Atlanta, but we ain’t hearing back.’ There’s nothing going on down there. They’ve gutted that place. They’ve gagged that place. I can’t get calls returned anymore. Nobody down there is feeling like it’s safe to talk. Have you even seen anything important and vital coming out of the C.D.C.?”
The problem, Garrett added, is bigger than Trump and older than his presidency. America has never been sufficiently invested in public health. The riches and renown go mostly to physicians who find new and better ways to treat heart disease, cancer and the like. The big political conversation is about individuals’ access to health care.
But what about the work to keep our air and water safe for everyone, to design policies and systems for quickly detecting outbreaks, containing them and protecting entire populations? Where are the rewards for the architects of that?
Garrett recounted her time at Harvard. “The medical school is all marble, with these grand columns,” she said. “The school of public health is this funky building, the ugliest possible architecture, with the ceilings falling in.”
“That’s America?” I asked.
“That’s America,” she said.
And what America needs most right now, she said, isn’t this drumbeat of testing, testing, testing, because there will never be enough superfast, super-reliable tests to determine on the spot who can safely enter a crowded workplace or venue, which is the scenario that some people seem to have in mind. America needs good information, from many rigorously designed studies, about the prevalence and deadliness of coronavirus infections in given subsets of people, so that governors and mayors can develop rules for social distancing and reopening that are sensible, sustainable and tailored to the situation at hand.
America needs a federal government that assertively promotes and helps to coordinate that, not one in which experts like Tony Fauci and Deborah Birx tiptoe around a president’s tender ego.
“I can sit here with you for three hours listing — boom, boom, boom — what good leadership would look like and how many more lives would be saved if we followed that path, and it’s just incredibly upsetting.” Garrett said. “I feel like I’m just coming out of maybe three weeks of being in a funk because of the profound disappointment that there’s not a whisper of it.”
Instead of that whisper she hears wailing: the sirens of ambulances carrying coronavirus patients to hospitals near her apartment in Brooklyn Heights, where she has been home alone, in lockdown, since early March. “If I don’t get hugged soon, I’m going to go bananas,” she told me. “I’m desperate to be hugged.”
An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House said in a press release that it plans to revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, an increase that one of its researchers tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility.
The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning. A press release from IHME said the full set of new projections will be released later this afternoon.
Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at IHME, referenced the updated projections on CNN earlier today, but said he couldn’t provide the specific number.
“We are seeing, of course, a rise in projected deaths for several reasons,” he told CNN’s John King on Inside Politics. “One of them is increased mobility before the relaxation, premature relaxation of social distancing, we’re adding more presumptive deaths as well, and we’re seeing a lot of outbreaks in the Midwest, for example.” He said multiple variables impact infections – like heat, testing capacity and population density – but “the most important one is mobility.”
Right now, he said, “we’re seeing an increase in mobility that’s leading to an increase in mortality unfortunately in the United States.”
The IHME director, Dr. Christopher Murray, will be holding a press briefing at 4 p.m. ET today with additional details.
The two scenes that prompted Gov. DeWine's comments on the protesters....
I can't even.
We truly are living in an Idiocracy.
I have been reading articles and watching videos similar to these for the past couple of weeks and I can't tell you how incensed I am w/these idiot protestors. Why the hell you need a gun to protest? Why do you need to put others at risk. I am all for free-speech and protesting, but make your case and move on. The idiots in Hunington Beach are gross. The guys in cameo, face masks to hide their identity, and carrying weapons while protesting in a neighborhood w/kids running around are even more disgusting.
The two scenes that prompted Gov. DeWine's comments on the protesters....
I can't even.
We truly are living in an Idiocracy.
I have been reading articles and watching videos similar to these for the past couple of weeks and I can't tell you how incensed I am w/these idiot protestors. Why the hell you need a gun to protest? Why do you need to put others at risk. I am all for free-speech and protesting, but make your case and move on. The idiots in Hunington Beach are gross. The guys in cameo, face masks to hide their identity, and carrying weapons while protesting in a neighborhood w/kids running around are even more disgusting.
Stop, you selfish, glory-hunting, morons!
It's a cold day in hell when you, me, and OCD all agree on something.
We're doing well. People around here have begun to shun the regulations. Folks gathering everywhere. Masks are on the downswing. Lot's of folks taking unnecessary risks. I was out today to go to Lowes because my wife wants me to construct several decorative trellis frames for clematis plants around our deck as a Mother's Day present. I decided to go all out and make frames that you would see in Japanese gardens and place the trellis pieces inside each frame w/their own individual pots. Anyway..............you wouldn't believe how many people were out. I wanted to go Saturday and then Sunday, but I decided to wait until Monday to avoid crowds. Unfortunately, all three checkout lines in the garden section were about 12 deep. Crazy!
What's it like in Alaska? Are people smarter up there?
This picture gets updated every day by the major newspaper of the state.
Where I live, things are okay. People are wearing masks, there's less traffic on the roads, and everyone is doing their part at grocery stores.
Teaching isn't too fun right now. I'm glad I have my job, yet I miss being in the classroom with the students. The technology challenges make it hard to try and maintain any sort of in-class meeting. We're all trying our best to keep the students working.
Tough deal for teachers and students. I have had similar issues w/the students I tutor, but it's my business and I don't have to deal w/the stress of the school district and general public.
Hang in there, bro. I don't envy you in this particular circumstance. Just do the best you can do for your kids and screw everyone else.
An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House said in a press release that it plans to revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, an increase that one of its researchers tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility.
The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning. A press release from IHME said the full set of new projections will be released later this afternoon.
Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at IHME, referenced the updated projections on CNN earlier today, but said he couldn’t provide the specific number.
“We are seeing, of course, a rise in projected deaths for several reasons,” he told CNN’s John King on Inside Politics. “One of them is increased mobility before the relaxation, premature relaxation of social distancing, we’re adding more presumptive deaths as well, and we’re seeing a lot of outbreaks in the Midwest, for example.” He said multiple variables impact infections – like heat, testing capacity and population density – but “the most important one is mobility.”
Right now, he said, “we’re seeing an increase in mobility that’s leading to an increase in mortality unfortunately in the United States.”
The IHME director, Dr. Christopher Murray, will be holding a press briefing at 4 p.m. ET today with additional details.
This model is a load of crap.
There is NO WAY AT ALL they are already seeing increases in deaths as a result of relaxation of guidelines. NONE. Those numbers are still weeks off.
God bless this great, amazing country of ours. if you didnt believe it before, yes; we will make a drive-thru ANYTHING in America!
I love Portland. I don’t go to strip clubs... well, only twice ever. The Devil’s Point was walking distance from my house at the time and they had fire dancers. Cool performances. In general strip clubs are just not my thing. Alcohol isn’t my vice. Nude women I can’t touch aren’t either. Lol
An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House said in a press release that it plans to revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, an increase that one of its researchers tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility.
The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning. A press release from IHME said the full set of new projections will be released later this afternoon.
Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at IHME, referenced the updated projections on CNN earlier today, but said he couldn’t provide the specific number.
“We are seeing, of course, a rise in projected deaths for several reasons,” he told CNN’s John King on Inside Politics. “One of them is increased mobility before the relaxation, premature relaxation of social distancing, we’re adding more presumptive deaths as well, and we’re seeing a lot of outbreaks in the Midwest, for example.” He said multiple variables impact infections – like heat, testing capacity and population density – but “the most important one is mobility.”
Right now, he said, “we’re seeing an increase in mobility that’s leading to an increase in mortality unfortunately in the United States.”
The IHME director, Dr. Christopher Murray, will be holding a press briefing at 4 p.m. ET today with additional details.
This model is a load of crap.
There is NO WAY AT ALL they are already seeing increases in deaths as a result of relaxation of guidelines. NONE. Those numbers are still weeks off.
There is NO WAY AT ALL they are already seeing increases in deaths as a result of relaxation of guidelines. NONE. Those numbers are still weeks off.
Their numbers are also based on NO mitigation.
“We are seeing, of course, a rise in projected deaths for several reasons,” he told CNN’s John King on Inside Politics. “One of them is .... premature relaxation of social distancing,
It's total crap. No relaxation measures can have an outcome, nor a prediction, yet.
They have been making projections based on all models since this virus was spreading on a large scale based on many variables. First we heard 120,000 to up to 240,000. Once social distancing and stay at home orders were in place, that projection dropped to 61,000.
It only stands to reason as those restrictions ease those projections would rise in their numbers. We both know that easing of these restrictions will result in far more deaths. Medical and scientific professionals all pretty much agree with that and they are the only people who have been right abut anything from the very beginning.
The misunderstanding here I believe comes with the wording used. There's a big difference in a prediction and projections. A projection is simply a guess as to what may happen given the information used in the model you you are arriving at your information from. It's nothing more than a guess.
So to a great degree you are right. They are crap. I mean we have sailed right past the projection of 61,000 deaths they stated already.
We both know that easing of these restrictions will result in far more deaths.
One thing on this: "more" is subjective to time. I do not think it will be more, but more for a given time span. I think, and firmly believe, that the overall number of deaths, give or a take a margin of error, will be the same whether we go slow and take two years to get to that number or plow through to herd immunity and get there in six months. When it's all said and done, I think the number will be very much the same one way or the other... the people that are going to die from it are going to die from it. All we change is the timeline on when we hit a certain number. Again, I simply only need look to Sweden for validation of that. Their deaths are nearly triple Ohio's for the same size population, same number of cases and same amount of testing per capita, but they are moving through their curve faster - and have a higher rate of infection among their elderly and nursing home residents. They are on the taller, spikier curve, we're on the flatter, more rounded curve. Same numbers, different rates.
I disagree to an extent. If something is found to mitigate the symptoms in the short term, many who would otherwise have died from the virus can be saved. That would lessen the death toll.
As of now it appears at this early stage that REMDESIVIR seems the most promising.
We both know that easing of these restrictions will result in far more deaths.
One thing on this: "more" is subjective to time. I do not think it will be more, but more for a given time span. I think, and firmly believe, that the overall number of deaths, give or a take a margin of error, will be the same whether we go slow and take two years to get to that number or plow through to herd immunity and get there in six months. When it's all said and done, I think the number will be very much the same one way or the other... the people that are going to die from it are going to die from it. All we change is the timeline on when we hit a certain number. Again, I simply only need look to Sweden for validation of that. Their deaths are nearly triple Ohio's for the same size population, same number of cases and same amount of testing per capita, but they are moving through their curve faster - and have a higher rate of infection among their elderly and nursing home residents. They are on the taller, spikier curve, we're on the flatter, more rounded curve. Same numbers, different rates.
How many people have died because they couldn't get their cancer treatments? How many will die as hospitals go bankrupt? How many died because they had life threatening heart attacks and other illnesses but didn't go to the hospital out of fear? How many elderly died as Governors ordered Nursing homes to accept overflow recovering Corona patients into their facilities?
How hypocritical is it of people to demand essential services stay open, providing their electricity, water, gas, fire service, phone, internet, ambulance and food supply while insisting they must hide away in their basements for months or years on end? Waiting for the day they feel save to come out, as they demand others risk all to tend to their needs?
And of course you come here talking about nothing having to do with the subject at hand. I doubt anyone is surprise by that.
This isn't a place for me to explain these things because most of them have a political answer. Go to the political forum and post this and I will be happy to respond.
"From Yale Epidemiologist, Jonathan Smith: As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not being articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I have also relied on my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post; any edits are from that peer review. Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous. First, we are in the beginning of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these distancing measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t. Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it typically increases your contacts with family members /very close friends. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming geometric speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that whole chain. In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how on a population level, ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far. Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to choices outside the rules. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to just ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.
Jonathan Smith is a lecturer in Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Global Health at Yale University, School of Public Health. Shared by Dr. Jerry K Davis, DVM, PhD retired VMO, FDA"
Coronavirus: Scientists say a more contagious mutant strain has been sweeping globe "The story is worrying, as we see a mutated form of the virus very rapidly emerging," the study's authors say.
Alexander Martin Sky News Tuesday 5 May 2020 20:51, UK
Scientists say they have identified a mutation in coronavirus which they believe means a more contagious strain has been sweeping Europe and the US - and could even reinfect those who already have antibodies.
Researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the US detected 14 mutations in the COVID-19 virus spike proteins, one of which - known as Spike D614G - they said was of "urgent concern".
Their research paper suggests the mutated strain of coronavirus that has become dominant across the world was first indentified in Europe and is different to those which spread early on in the pandemic.
So urgent is the issue that the research paper describing their findings has been made available before being peer-reviewed, although this has caused concern among some observers.
By analysing more than 6,000 genetic sequences of coronavirus samples taken from patients globally, the researchers found the mutated strain was persistently becoming the most dominant version of the virus in every region it was detected in.
While first discovered in Europe in early February, the researchers believe the coronavirus mutation has now become the most prevalent strain across the whole of the world.
The study indicates it has been consistently out-competing the original strain detected in Wuhan, which spread through that region of China and some other Asian countries before March.
We try to steer it away from that, and will continue to do so as we try to keep it informative while still having discussions.
There is a fine line between "political" and "policy". Discussing the merits of an approach/model for dealing with this is not political, though still contentious, and is FAR different than what passes for discussion in the PP thread.
My biggest requirement when first setting down that rule was the need to avoid polluting the threads in here with slams on this politician or that one, or this side, or that side. There is none of THAT in here, and there will not be.
I don't get the one week delay, though. You generally aren't going to see anything worthwhile in the data after just one week.... either build in a longer period to give the separated data meaning, or just start both on the 15th.
I'm going to enjoy watching people eat while wearing masks. Are you supposed to shovel the food in around it, or will everything be pureed and we will all get fat straws?
I don't get the one week delay, though. You generally aren't going to see anything worthwhile in the data after just one week.... either build in a longer period to give the separated data meaning, or just start both on the 15th.
The reason is politics. It makes more sense for two weeks plus to check the data, but when you have nincompoops without medical degrees looking to override Dr. Acton...
I don't get the one week delay, though. You generally aren't going to see anything worthwhile in the data after just one week.... either build in a longer period to give the separated data meaning, or just start both on the 15th.
The reason is politics. It makes more sense for two weeks plus to check the data, but when you have nincompoops without medical degrees looking to override Dr. Acton...
I’m taking clippers to my hair this evening. Even if my place opens back up this month I have no intention of setting foot in the place. This will be my first ever self cut/clipper attempt. Wish me luck.
Good luck bro My wife did mine and I really liked her boobs in my face instead of my barbers. Plus she did just as good of a job, and I didn't have to pay her a dime don't think I will ever go back to a barber shop as long as she keeps putting up with me.
I'm doing the same, soon. I bought a set of clippers right before the shutdown hit and I'm just now at the point of not being able to put up with the hair any longer.
My wife did mine and I really liked her boobs in my face instead of my barbers. Plus she did just as good of a job
You know it has been awhile since I've seen that pretty and fun wife of yours. Maybe this would be a good excuse to come over see her and get a hair cut ?
Tell her hi and give her my love and hope all is well for you and the family.
Good luck Portland..One of the guys at work who does his own hair for years looks good. The other guy at work who never did and did for the first time... well lets just say we all laughed and gave him fun crap on how he missed on the back of his head...lol
Me and the wife just got home from Sams Club in Boardman and took a ride by Walmart. 2 weeks ago when we went to Sams, I would bet about 85-90% of people had masks-today my guess is about 50%.
And in the few minutes we drove thru Walmart parking lot, we counted 15 people going in the store, 3 had masks on
Good luck bro My wife did mine and I really liked her boobs in my face instead of my barbers. Plus she did just as good of a job, and I didn't have to pay her a dime don't think I will ever go back to a barber shop as long as she keeps putting up with me.
My wife has been cutting my hair for years. She’s adequate, and that’s all I need in a haircutter.
By analyzing publicly available patient data from around the globe, Backman and his team discovered a strong correlation between vitamin D levels and cytokine storm -- a hyperinflammatory condition caused by an overactive immune system -- as well as a correlation between vitamin D deficiency and mortality.
"Cytokine storm can severely damage lungs and lead to acute respiratory distress syndrome and death in patients," Daneshkhah said. "This is what seems to kill a majority of COVID-19 patients, not the destruction of the lungs by the virus itself. It is the complications from the misdirected fire from the immune system."
This is exactly where Backman believes vitamin D plays a major role. Not only does vitamin D enhance our innate immune systems, it also prevents our immune systems from becoming dangerously overactive. This means that having healthy levels of vitamin D could protect patients against severe complications, including death, from COVID-19.
"Our analysis shows that it might be as high as cutting the mortality rate in half," Backman said. "It will not prevent a patient from contracting the virus, but it may reduce complications and prevent death in those who are infected."
If true, and it holds up, this is the magic bullet. All we've needed is the one treatment that mitigates that cytokine storm and this become drastically less dire.
Get out in the sun. Go for a run. Charge your body up, then come home and eat well.
Vitamin D functions as a hormone in the body that affects a lot of systems.
I was extremely Vitamin D deficient and it caused me to have chronic kidney stones. It took numerous tests to figure out that the Vitamin D was the problem.
The kicker is I was having some bad Crohns problems at the same time, which result from over active immune system.
Once I started taking Vitamin D supplements my Crohns problems stopped (and I stopped having kidney stones.) I never linked the two, but it makes sense.
So, I can totally buy into this theory. It would be amazing if it works out that all we need is a vitamin.
I am lucky that I have a family doctor who has me do comprehensive blood with every 6 months. He found that I have been vitamin D deficient as well. I don't get out in the sun as much as I once did. I take a 5000 IU D3 per day, and that had normalized my vitamin D levels per blood work.
I've always felt that something like this would be the case. That it would be the combination of multiple conditions/diseases or lack of some other magic ingredient. Which is why some people have absolutely no reaction at all, while others will be on their deathbed.
Centuries ago the found out what turned out to be the "cure" for smallpox, when they learned people infected with cowpox (which didn't effect humans) were essentially immune to smallpox.
Not even a vitamin, in many cases. Just get outside and do something fun (sunlight and activity).
I could go into a rant about how we approach medicine in the West, but I'll save it. TLDR, simple prevention/healthy lifestyle and many many issues 'magically' disappear.
If you scroll down to the "Daily" charts, you can see that we are two weeks past our peak in Ohio. It will be interesting to watch the next three weeks unfold.
If you scroll down to the "Daily" charts, you can see that we are two weeks past our peak in Ohio. It will be interesting to watch the next three weeks unfold.
DUDE!!!!! worldometers is breaking it down by state now? I missed that, and was just looking at the daily tweets that Milk was posting.
Day-on-day, that's a big uptick in new cases, but deaths are still dropping off. With the increase in testing it makes it really hard to tell if new case totals are increasing because we're testing more or because of the opening of the state.
It's the antithesis of the scientific method of "change one thing and then look at the result". The moment you change more than one thing, you lose clarity and causation.
I've always felt that something like this would be the case. That it would be the combination of multiple conditions/diseases or lack of some other magic ingredient. Which is why some people have absolutely no reaction at all, while others will be on their deathbed.
Centuries ago the found out what turned out to be the "cure" for smallpox, when they learned people infected with cowpox (which didn't effect humans) were essentially immune to smallpox.
If we can get the therapeutic drugs/strategy to work so people do not die, that will be a tremendous improvement.
It is not how many get sick or how easily it is transmitted that is the problem, it is the fact that you have a reasonable chance of dying that has been the problem.
I've always felt that something like this would be the case. That it would be the combination of multiple conditions/diseases or lack of some other magic ingredient. Which is why some people have absolutely no reaction at all, while others will be on their deathbed.
Centuries ago the found out what turned out to be the "cure" for smallpox, when they learned people infected with cowpox (which didn't effect humans) were essentially immune to smallpox.
If we can get the therapeutic drugs/strategy to work so people do not die, that will be a tremendous improvement.
It is not how many get sick or how easily it is transmitted that is the problem, it is the fact that you have a reasonable chance of dying that has been the problem.
It isn't even the dying, it the hospitalization and ICU rates that was the biggest issue. It's the entire reason for the "flatten the curve" mantra.
IF this bears out, well, it does exactly that - this can greatly contribute single-handedly to flattening the curve and greatly reducing cases turning from mild to severe as it is that cytokine storm that is the root cause of most hospitalizations from COVID pneumonia. That, in effect, also causes most deaths.
Basically, with this, most people won't even have to care if they contract the virus at all.
It is WAAAY too early with it to say it indeed is, but IF it bears out, it isn't a game changer.. it's the game ender.
I went out to the sports bar with my friend this afternoon/evening. We sat in the restaurant section for a few hours and had drinks and food.
That's one of the bars we always go to. So, the staff all knows us and we were chatting with them.
They are going to try to open the bar area on Tuesday, with social distancing guidelines.
If they open the bar area, I'm going to spend time there and not worry about the virus, because at this point sitting alone in my house for months is stressing me out and putting me in a bad headspace.
I do 2-5,000 D3 a day. Cut it to 1 in the summer as I'm out alot. I've always been deficient. I'm glad I pump it in now!
Check out Dr. Eric Berg on YouTube. Chiropractic Dr and Nutritionist. He posted a video on D and Corona a few days ago. I follow his videos on nutrition and they've turned the health of my innards around 100%.
Always a horror story about someone out there. I doubt there's anybody anywhere who doesn't have detractors online. I dont do anything I'd consider radical anyway nor do I think the guy ever proposes you should do so.
I do one meal a day and my body seems quite happy. So is my Doctor for that matter who has preached "diet is the key" during our 30 year doctor/patient relationship. He hated putting me on BP meds and took me off when my weight loss dictated it. He's NEVER given me an antibiotic in 30 years. I know people whose doctor passes them out like Skittles! Big pharma hates him I'm sure!
Seems like diet/health is beginning to play a bigger and bigger role in this Covid stuff. Pharmaceutical companies are looking for a payday so I'm sure we'll soon hear that there is nothing to this D thing. That's the real signal that it probably has at least some merit. Americans might want to rethink their lifestyles coming out of this. (That'll happen)
I tested positive for influenza A in december in the hospital. But the symptoms were a lot like COVID. With the new reports that this could have been here as early as November 2019, I would like to ask medical pros on the board if my test could have been mistaken because I never had a flu do to me what this thing did?
I tested positive for influenza A in december in the hospital. But the symptoms were a lot like COVID. With the new reports that this could have been here as early as November 2019, I would like to ask medical pros on the board if my test could have been mistaken because I never had a flu do to me what this thing did?
Many reports indicate that the flu was particularly severe this year.
Finally, while there may have been some cases in the US much earlier than we thought - the evidence still points to a handful of cases at this time, while there were hundreds of thousands of cases of the flu per week.
Just my layman's thoughts on that... they are two entirely separate families of viruses, so if you had an actual positive for Influenza A, I'd think it nearly impossible that it was a potential positive for Sars-Cov-2.
I tested positive for influenza A in december in the hospital. But the symptoms were a lot like COVID. With the new reports that this could have been here as early as November 2019, I would like to ask medical pros on the board if my test could have been mistaken because I never had a flu do to me what this thing did?
My buddy and I both came back from our Vegas superbowl trip with the flu.
I got over it on my own in a couple days. He on the other hand struggled, ended up going to urgent care and was laid up for a week.
That's really pretty significant from the perspective of trying to project just how many REAL cases there are out there.
Give the R0 of this, how many people could it have spread to in that time before a single case showed up on hospital to get tested? Whatever that number is, and whatever that ratio is, can give us some increased insight into projecting just how many people may have already had this.
Of course, so would random antibody testing... but this could be done with some quick math.
Given what has come out recently about phone activity around Wuhan in October and a confirmed case in France in December, it is very likely we are a good bit further down the road than any of us thought.
NY is saying over 66% of the new cases are people who have been at home the whole time. Not on public transportation or the grocery but home. So much for social distancing apparently. Steadily, cautiously forward...
I tested positive for influenza A in december in the hospital. But the symptoms were a lot like COVID. With the new reports that this could have been here as early as November 2019, I would like to ask medical pros on the board if my test could have been mistaken because I never had a flu do to me what this thing did?
If the medication worked and you were better in 3-4 days, you had the flu. I hit held on for a long time and meds did no good, it would more likely be COvid.
Good tip, but $130 bucks and a 3.5 hour one way drive to the nearest facility outweighs my curiosity. lmao.
I wouldn't mind the money, but in combination with the 7 hour round trip drive... I'll have to pass. But I didn't know these were publically available for purchase and thought you had to have a Dr.'s referral to get tested, period. So I'm going to see what's available locally and maybe I will get that test. I'll update this later.
1200 is a smidgen above nothing a all. We are not prepared for what's coming next.
We were not prepared for the first round; we won't be prepared for the second round
Agreed.
We (USA) have never gotten in front of this thing since it dropped on our shores.
Being "Out-Front" means:
1. Universal (accurate) testing/rapid testing results turnaround 2. Contact tracing, once positives are detected 3. Quarantine/sequester on a mass scale, when pod cases are found.
Because we were caught flat-footed, we've never been able to get out-front of this thing, and will forever be chasing it, until a vaccine is ready. By then, the vax will be a day late/dollar short, and we'll be chasing some new mutation. Reports are now already surfacing that a new strain is cropping up, taking dominance over COVID-19, and reasserting itself into South Korea's population. Folks who survived Round One are now testing positive for Round Two.
We aren't anywhere near being able to contain/control/overcome this thing.
Most American people have never been trained/schooled to think in exponential terms. Because of that, they will never take this threat as seriously as they should. And they'll go right back to all their family gatherings, church services, club datess, mass gatherings, etc...
...while this monster continues to creep from of us to ten of us to 100 of us to... without so much as a single physical symptom- for up to TWO FREAKKING WEEKS. I'm sure you get my point.
_____________
My deepest fear is that this infant nation learned nothing from the pandemic 100 years ago, and will do the same stupid s# we did back then: second wave, exponentially more deadly than Wave One.
1/20/2017: the famous "American Carnage" speech. How prescient. Oh, the bitter irony.
I'll trade you your bad news for more information or various bad/maybe okay news. --------------------- Turns out the guy linked to the new outbreak in South Korea hasn't necessarily infected new people, but he went to a club while South Koreans were told to stay home.
The other terrible part? He's gay and South Korea apparently has rampant homophobia. ------------------- There has been a few mutations, but what scientists are concerned about are mutations on the spike protein.
So far, they haven't identified any significant mutations on the spike protein, the crown like part of covid, that lets the virus slip into the cell to replicate. Here's a report about the one mutation involving the spike protein but it doesn't impact the region many potential vaccines are trying to kill. The vaccine is designed to neutralize the spike.
There is another mutation discovered in Arizona that's showing it's mutating sort of like SARS did, and this mutation caused SARS to die out. However, the mutation seems to currently be just an isolated case.
My anxious self has been through the wringer on this. Imagine being on vacation in a place SWARMED with people (40K or so) every day while this was starting to explode in the US. Our Disney trip was the week DeWine and the rest of the country shut everything down.
Sorta hard to fully enjoy vacation wondering if the person helping you build your lightsaber is carrying covid...
I've stayed abreast of this since January. I benefit from a similar contact of yours, and my own curiosity has helped me educate myself (with the right sources).
My contact was in south of Hubei in China when this started. We asked them about traveling, as they would be joining us for part of our trip in Orlando, and they said we should be fine. Unfortunately they didn't (along with most of us) expect us to respond the way we did to let it get to where it did.
1200 is a smidgen above nothing a all. We are not prepared for what's coming next.
We were not prepared for the first round; we won't be prepared for the second round
Aside from stockpiling gear, there isn't much prep to be done. Hopefully, all of these new manufacturing contracts will be kept working all summer long. By August, any and all talk of insufficient PPE and ventilators should be nonexistent.
A 2nd wave is pretty much a given and it will start from a significantly larger base than the first wave which had to invade and establish its beachhead, but I don't think it will be as catastrophically horrific as fear would have people jump to thinking. Opening back up and increasing the rate of spread during these summer months actually helps decrease the autumn second wave. A steady, sustainable, and manageable increase now is fewer potential places for it to jump to in September, October, and November.
What we REALLY need right now is a boatload of widespread antibody testing to get as clear and realistic a picture as possible of the TRUE infection levels thus far. That will give us an idea of how many "unknown" cases there really are for each one that shows up at the hospital, which then gives us the ability to better estimate and model where we are in the race to 70%. Even if immunity isn't permanent, it is likely it lasts several months, at least... so every case before then is like 1.3 less in the autumn.
As I understand it, there have been a dozen or more (dozen and a half... trying to recall) mutations discovered, but there are still only the same two strains we've had pretty much the entire time.
If South Korea is getting hit by a 2nd strain, it is actually likely that it is just the one we are dealing with now. They were hit early, so most of theirs would have been the first strain. Then again, we have probably had both circulating here for a while, I'd guess.
I recall when reading about the cases in Washington being tied to the very first case by mutations that marked it that the number was that dozen to a dozen and a half back then. If it was that large then, I'm sure it's probably close to double that two months later. Interestingly, if they are tracking that information, we could actually build a map showing the spread of each mutation separately, which should also allow us to track which mutations came from which. I don't know how useful that might be, but it would be interesting to look at.
The peer review data on the strains and severity is still limited at best. Initial data in Wuhan said there were two main strains. One strain stayed practically in Wuhan and died out due to the lethality, and the other strain escaped as it was more transmissible, and that's the one traveling around the world. There was speculation the strain on the east coast was worse, but there hasn't been much said other than armchair hypothesis and such.
I think the east coast severity is mainly due to population density; look at how spread out people are on the west coast. Sure, you have large areas such as LA county, San Francisco/Sacramento, and Seattle...but they've done a little better. Not many people cramped in tiny areas such as NYC. Then again, this is partly my own speculation.
There's a site, that catalogues the mutations on a rolling basis. I don't bother with the site as it's beyond my level of comprehension with viral genetics, yet I find it great scientific work as the strains are being mapped and traced. It does exactly what you describe. https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
As long as the spike protein doesn't mutate away from the vaccine trial targets, we should theoretically be fine. Let's just hope the vaccine performs the same function it did in labs and test animals to us as the intended subjects.
I also hope the mutations go the way of SARS and burn out, but this doesn't look to be the widespread case.
1200 is a smidgen above nothing a all. We are not prepared for what's coming next.
We were not prepared for the first round; we won't be prepared for the second round
Agreed.
We (USA) have never gotten in front of this thing since it dropped on our shores.
Being "Out-Front" means:
1. Universal (accurate) testing/rapid testing results turnaround 2. Contact tracing, once positives are detected 3. Quarantine/sequester on a mass scale, when pod cases are found.
Because we were caught flat-footed, we've never been able to get out-front of this thing, and will forever be chasing it, until a vaccine is ready. By then, the vax will be a day late/dollar short, and we'll be chasing some new mutation. Reports are now already surfacing that a new strain is cropping up, taking dominance over COVID-19, and reasserting itself into South Korea's population. Folks who survived Round One are now testing positive for Round Two.
We aren't anywhere near being able to contain/control/overcome this thing.
Most American people have never been trained/schooled to think in exponential terms. Because of that, they will never take this threat as seriously as they should. And they'll go right back to all their family gatherings, church services, club datess, mass gatherings, etc...
...while this monster continues to creep from of us to ten of us to 100 of us to... without so much as a single physical symptom- for up to TWO FREAKKING WEEKS. I'm sure you get my point.
_____________
My deepest fear is that this infant nation learned nothing from the pandemic 100 years ago, and will do the same stupid s# we did back then: second wave, exponentially more deadly than Wave One.
1/20/2017: the famous "American Carnage" speech. How prescient. Oh, the bitter irony.
smdh.
Time to bring back the Faberge Organics shampoo commercials.
Italian doctors are finding plasma is incredibly effective in reducing the mortality rate. They were seeing 15% likelihood of dying from covid and it dropped all the way down to 6% with the use of plasma from recovered patients.
Italian doctors are finding plasma is incredibly effective in reducing the mortality rate. They were seeing 15% likelihood of dying from covid and it dropped all the way down to 6% with the use of plasma from recovered patients.
and we need to normalize the number of tests, or at least the number of positives per day against the number of tests to try to see if we are increasing due to the additional number of tests or because of the resumption of activities/businesses.
I'm concerned that they will see a spike as a result increased testing and attribute it to the relaxation of the lockdowns and go back to it needlessly.
Given that, I suppose the purest number to use would be hospitalizations and ICU admissions. Those don't actually care too much about how many tests are being given per day or how many of those pop positive... they're coming in because they need help just like they have been all along. So, yeah... those are the numbers to be watching.
Tests & New Cases are just window dressing that mean very little.
Colorado amends coronavirus death count - says fewer have died of COVID-19 than previously reported
Colorado has made a stunning and significant change to the way it counts COVID-19 deaths that reduced the statewide figure from more than 1,000 to 878, according to a report.
The change came after Colorado’s Department of Public Health admitted that its COVID-19 death toll was counting those who tested positive for the coronavirus but had died of other causes, Fox 31 Denver reported late Friday.
The department now says 1,150 Coloradoans who died had COVID-19 but only 878 of those deaths were “due to” COVID-19.
“We have been reporting at the state, deaths among people who had COVID-19 at the time of death and the cause of that death may or may not have been COVID-19,” Dr. Eric France, the health department's chief medical officer told the station.
“We started to hear stories about ‘are these correct or are these incorrect?'” France said.
Would sure like to know what they died of. AIDS patients don’t die of AIDS; they die due to complications from AIDS. I sure hope Colorado isn’t fudging the numbers here.
Ill go out on that limb and say you're going to have NFL football by September and there'll be butts in the stands.
Can you imagine the patriotic, military fan fare that will accompany this if the case.
You thought the Flag covering the entire football field was a big deal, they'll have an American Flag covering the entire stadium and 3 miles around the parking lot
And who knows how long the national anthem is going to be, 12 minutes with fireworks and dozens of different kinds of American Airplanes, and an Eagle, in a Parachute,, with the Eye of an Eagle Embroidered into the parachute And a history of all the Hero's that ever lived faces' broadcast on a TV board 1200 feet tall and half a mile wide.
Still, I hope it goes on, because the alternative would be NO fans in the seats, but it's going to be something.
Maybe we can get Aerosmith to sing the "one call away" song while Dr. Faucci rollerblades across a stage on rocket skates like Marty McFly!
We can release a million doves with a million olive branches in their beaks, and we can all be "Strong"
Spell out the word "Strong" with 210,000 drones in the sky.
If Coaches were wearing Camo last year, I can just imagine what they are going to be wearing this year. The boxing robe Apollo Creed wore in Rocky 2, but with a more patriotic/ military theme. It will be something to take in, I'm looking forward to it.
Nearly a quarter of the people Colorado said died from coronavirus don’t have COVID-19 on their death certificate The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment announced a change to how it tallies coronavirus deaths amid complaints that it inflated numbers
PUBLISHED ONMAY 15, 2020 6:48PM MDT CORONAVIRUSPRIMARY CATEGORY IN WHICH BLOG POST IS PUBLISHED
John Ingold @johningold The Colorado Sun — johningold@coloradosun.com
Nearly a quarter of the people reported as coronavirus deaths in state statistics don’t have the virus listed on their death certificates — at least not yet — the state Health Department said Friday, adding more uncertainty to how many people the virus has killed in Colorado.
The number of coronavirus deaths in state figures topped 1,000 earlier this week, and the number stood at 1,150 deaths as of Friday afternoon. But officials with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment revealed during a call with reporters that that number does not represent the number of people who have died due to COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
Instead, the death figure CDPHE has been providing for weeks is more accurately described as the number of people with COVID-19 who have died — for any reason. The number of people who have died and have COVID-19 listed on their death certificate is 24% lower: 878, according to CDPHE’s latest figures.
“We recognize that there certainly has been confusion around this topic,” Dr. Rachel Herlihy, the state epidemiologist, said during the call.
But even this latest revelation does little to clarify the battle over the virus’ death toll, which has become one of the most contentious and politically rancorous fights of the pandemic. A Republican state representative has called for a criminal investigation of CDPHE. The coroner of Montezuma County joined the media call unexpectedly Friday to directly question state officials about their reporting of death numbers. And politicians and political activists across the country have engaged in heated debate about whether the pandemic’s toll has been inflated or undercounted.
The issue even drew a pointed response from Gov. Jared Polis at his own news conference on Friday.
“What the people of Colorado want to know is not who died with COVID-19, but who died of COVID-19,” said Polis, who has rarely expressed such public frustration with his health leadership before. “And the numbers are very close, of course. There’s only a few cases that we’re aware of where there is some gray area. But where there is a gray area, we should always use — for reporting — the numbers that come from the physician or the coroner that actually addressed the patient or inspected the body.”
At issue here are two different systems for reporting COVID-19 deaths, CDPHE leaders said. One — the one with the higher numbers — is an epidemiological surveillance system that tracks deaths of people diagnosed with the disease. The other — the one reporting lower numbers — is the more mundane recording of causes of death on death certificates by county coroners, doctors or medical examiners.
Dr. Eric France, CDPHE’s chief medical officer, said the state’s surveillance-system reporting is in line with federal guidance and matches how other states are also reporting deaths, allowing for a quick apples-to-apples comparison across states. Death certificate data also gets reported to the federal government, but it can take weeks or months for those numbers to trickle in. Having uniform surveillance definitions across states is vital for tracking the spread of the virus and allocating federal resources, France said.
“Having that standard measure so that I can be confident that the way we’re measuring it and the way it’s being measured in Texas or Florida is the same really is important for the whole nation in how it manages this pandemic,” he said.
Both men accused CDPHE of changing death certificates to add COVID-19. But CDPHE officials vehemently denied doing so, saying there was confusion about the different reporting systems. Death certificates are not public records under Colorado law.
“We do not change death certificates and have not changed death certificates,” said Kirk Bol, the head of CDPHE’s vital statistics program.
The answer clearly didn’t satisfy Deavers, who joined the media call Friday and pressed CDPHE leaders for a better explanation.
“You guys record every COVID case that dies, whether that is the cause of death or not,” he said. “To my knowledge, you don’t do that with influenza, is that correct?”
Herlihy said influenza is reported differently but there are other diseases where the same dual-system reporting occurs.
“It is not uncommon that death certificates and surveillance case definitions for deaths of communicable diseases are sometimes divergent,” Herlihy told Deavers. “Most of the time, the cases … do line up very closely. But there can be slight discrepancies.”
To add to the confusion, Bol said he expects the numbers from the two reporting systems to “converge” over time. That’s because death certificates can sometimes take weeks to complete. So, it’s possible some of the deaths in the gap between the two systems might not have a death certificate yet.
Overall, France said, far too many people are dying from COVID-19 and that it is important to remember that “every number has a name.”
But Polis said he would order CDPHE to make changes to clarify its public death-reporting, though he called the idea of criminal charges for state health officials, “completely inappropriate.”
“Nobody behind a desk should ever second guess a coroner or an attending physician that lists a cause of death on a certificate,” Polis said. “The department will tell you they have to report that higher number to the CDC. They have to report under federal guidelines the number that have had COVID and died. But we should also make public the people who have died from COVID. And I’m going to make sure that they do that in a way that engenders the full confidence and support of the people of Colorado.”
If you have covid or had covid right before dying, I can't see how the death is not covid related. On a side note, who is so bent out of shape that this had to become a thing?
Colorado amends coronavirus death count - says fewer have died of COVID-19 than previously reported
Colorado has made a stunning and significant change to the way it counts COVID-19 deaths that reduced the statewide figure from more than 1,000 to 878, according to a report.
The change came after Colorado’s Department of Public Health admitted that its COVID-19 death toll was counting those who tested positive for the coronavirus but had died of other causes, Fox 31 Denver reported late Friday.
The department now says 1,150 Coloradoans who died had COVID-19 but only 878 of those deaths were “due to” COVID-19.
“We have been reporting at the state, deaths among people who had COVID-19 at the time of death and the cause of that death may or may not have been COVID-19,” Dr. Eric France, the health department's chief medical officer told the station.
“We started to hear stories about ‘are these correct or are these incorrect?'” France said.
If somebody is hit by a speeding car, and knocked 6o feet into the air, then dies on impact with the ground their death was caused by the car hitting them. you can't blame the ground for their death. Gee he had Covid but he died from blood clots {DUH) Oh he had covid but he died from a heart attack (DUH) he had covid but he died because he couldn't breath (DUH)
You do understand that the virus hasn’t gone away, right? With that, normal will only replicate what happened in NYC all over the country. You do realize this, correct?
Reported cases are going down in Michigan also. Things are starting to open up a little. What some people are worried about is the interstate travel between Ohio and Michigan leading to in increase of covid-19 cases in both states.
I think that there are many such instances across the country. People worried that many people will cross state and even local lines to less restricted areas and coming back home. All we can do at this point is see how this all plays out and hope for the best.
Reported cases are going down in Michigan also. Things are starting to open up a little. What some people are worried about is the interstate travel between Ohio and Michigan leading to in increase of covid-19 cases in both states.
You do understand that the virus hasn’t gone away, right? With that, normal will only replicate what happened in NYC all over the country. You do realize this, correct?
There is no more ‘normal’.
I disagree, this is the normal for a good while. It is what it is.
I honestly don't understand the push for testing. I understand testing if someone has symptoms, and sure, maybe we catch a few who have the virus who don't have any symptoms at that moment.
You take the swab, it takes a few day to get your results....you are clean. Cool. The problem is you can catch it between the time you are swabbed and you get your results.
Just because you were good yesterday doesn't mean you are good today.
I realize we need to get back to work. Just walking around I get the feeling we have a false sense of security.
For all the bitching and moaning people/the media did about Georgia opening up early, we have passed the peak and there is no second wave in sight.
Gosh Eve does that mean guys like Portland, Pit and their ilk are wrong. I'm sure they are already working on their spin..
I'd guess so. Seems the biggest problem we have right now is unemployment. A lot of places haven't opened up yet because it's hard to be profitable with the social distancing requirements.
Mainly due to contact racing. What they've done is someone tests and if they're positive, a sequence of events happens. They have the person list close contacts, typically people they were around for 5-15 minutes, in the most recent span of days. Then a team of people, it's been school nurses in Alaska, reach out to those close contacts to get tested.
This gets people to stay in and limit the spread.
Testing may not prevent someone already infected from getting sick. but it helps others from getting sick when paired with contact tracing.
I would love to be wrong. But that would take all of the scientific community to be wrong and politicians to be right. They aren't my predictions. They are the predictions of the best experts in their field of expertise. I trust them over Mr. I'm Not A Doctor.
People developed the exact antibodies that defeat covid! Speculation by the NIH is that this vaccine could potentially be ready by the beginning of 2021.
Now let's hope we can stay ahead of potential covid mutations.
Mainly due to contact racing. What they've done is someone tests and if they're positive, a sequence of events happens. They have the person list close contacts, typically people they were around for 5-15 minutes, in the most recent span of days. Then a team of people, it's been school nurses in Alaska, reach out to those close contacts to get tested.
This gets people to stay in and limit the spread.
Testing may not prevent someone already infected from getting sick. but it helps others from getting sick when paired with contact tracing.
I guess that makes sense.
On a side note, I was scheduled from mid March til the end of May to ump some 30 games. Obviously, they were all cancelled. (h.s. and J.H.s games).
I was scheduled for about 20-25 games for 'summer' ball, 16u, 14u, 12u, etc, and could've scheduled, truthfully, as many more as I had time for. Summer tournaments - an ump could easily do 6 games on a Sat. and 6 more on Sunday......
Cancelled - until last Thursday I think it was, Then, some of them, after June 8, were back on. Then, another e-mail. Umps would have to wear a mask the entire time. Players could be unmasked while on the field, but would have to put masks on as they enter the dugout. Umpires could not touch ANY equipment (i.e. a bat dropped in front of home plate by the batter when a runner is heading for home - that's a safety issue that any good ump takes the 2 seconds, upon seeing there may be a play at the plate - to deal with, even if just kicking it out of the way).
Players cannot share any equipment. Not bats, or helmets. A whole lot of, especially the younger kids, don't have their own helmets. You can't believe how bats are shared, either. (and they are expensive.)
And this, from 2 local summer leagues/parks and rec leagues: All fans must stay 6 feet away, in the stands, on the way to the stands, on the way back to their car. And, 'someone will be present at the fields to take your name, address, and phone number for possible tracking IF someone is found to have covid. We may require temp. taking also."
It's how countries such as South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and others have been able to limit the spread.
I can't speak to that. I suppose if you can lock those folks away, you can eliminate some of the problem, but as I said, you and I could get swabbed tonight and catch it in the morning.
I am not against testing but it seems to me you would have to do it over and over and over.
Mainly due to contact racing. What they've done is someone tests and if they're positive, a sequence of events happens. They have the person list close contacts, typically people they were around for 5-15 minutes, in the most recent span of days. Then a team of people, it's been school nurses in Alaska, reach out to those close contacts to get tested.
This gets people to stay in and limit the spread.
Testing may not prevent someone already infected from getting sick. but it helps others from getting sick when paired with contact tracing.
I guess that makes sense.
On a side note, I was scheduled from mid March til the end of May to ump some 30 games. Obviously, they were all cancelled. (h.s. and J.H.s games).
I was scheduled for about 20-25 games for 'summer' ball, 16u, 14u, 12u, etc, and could've scheduled, truthfully, as many more as I had time for. Summer tournaments - an ump could easily do 6 games on a Sat. and 6 more on Sunday......
Cancelled - until last Thursday I think it was, Then, some of them, after June 8, were back on. Then, another e-mail. Umps would have to wear a mask the entire time. Players could be unmasked while on the field, but would have to put masks on as they enter the dugout. Umpires could not touch ANY equipment (i.e. a bat dropped in front of home plate by the batter when a runner is heading for home - that's a safety issue that any good ump takes the 2 seconds, upon seeing there may be a play at the plate - to deal with, even if just kicking it out of the way).
Players cannot share any equipment. Not bats, or helmets. A whole lot of, especially the younger kids, don't have their own helmets. You can't believe how bats are shared, either. (and they are expensive.)
And this, from 2 local summer leagues/parks and rec leagues: All fans must stay 6 feet away, in the stands, on the way to the stands, on the way back to their car. And, 'someone will be present at the fields to take your name, address, and phone number for possible tracking IF someone is found to have covid. We may require temp. taking also."
I'm not doing it. (games, that is)
Too bad man, that is a lot of games. I am not sure what the going rate is these days. 20 years ago we were paying our umps like $30 a game. That was the high school rate, and we only hired HS umps for our local summer league when our guys were 13-14 and one. Each team paid one of the umps. Each team put 4 new baseballs, agreed upon type in play. We had a local league of 8 teams. We didn't want any jackleg back there or on the bases ruining games. It was always a 2 man crew. It has to be a little more today.
That is a pretty nice chunk of change you are losing.
You do understand that the virus hasn’t gone away, right? With that, normal will only replicate what happened in NYC all over the country. You do realize this, correct?
There is no more ‘normal’.
From what I see a lot of people are under the impression that the virus has gone away. Where I live restaurants are packed, roads are busier than before this started. People are having parties at the park.
Everyone is going back to work too, things are re-opening as they should.
if you can lock those folks away, you can eliminate some of the problem, but as I said, you and I could get swabbed tonight and catch it in the morning.
The citizens of these countries have already been through this before with SARS. SARS cause many nations to develop plans and playbooks to deal with a coronavirus.
The vast majority of people in South Korea abide by what the government recommends, and their recommendations are very much in-tune with medical experts here in the United States. The big difference? They trust their experts there.
This bug is much better contained social distancing guidelines, wear masks, and testing is readily available. A large portion of the data supports this.
I dont think people think it's gone away rather since it's just NOT going away for the moment they've decided they can't hide for 18 months to 2 years from it so it's a showdown. Time will tell...
BTW, does the virus have an aversion to 10 people or less or does it just go for the big score? Is there some agreement IT has reached with the governor?
You do understand that the virus hasn’t gone away, right? With that, normal will only replicate what happened in NYC all over the country. You do realize this, correct?
There is no more ‘normal’.
From what I see a lot of people are under the impression that the virus has gone away. Where I live restaurants are packed, roads are busier than before this started. People are having parties at the park.
Everyone is going back to work too, things are re-opening as they should.
It hasn’t gone away. Their flippant disregard for social distancing and such will bite them, or someone they love, and/or their community in the arse in the coming weeks/months. Their desire for ‘normal’ is exactly what the virus needs to continue to breed within us and spread.
Typical Murika, a ten second attention span mixed with selfishness and a disregard for science.
if you can lock those folks away, you can eliminate some of the problem, but as I said, you and I could get swabbed tonight and catch it in the morning.
The citizens of these countries have already been through this before with SARS. SARS cause many nations to develop plans and playbooks to deal with a coronavirus.
The vast majority of people in South Korea abide by what the government recommends, and their recommendations are very much in-tune with medical experts here in the United States. The big difference? They trust their experts there.
This bug is much better contained social distancing guidelines, wear masks, and testing is readily available. A large portion of the data supports this.
I agree in social distancing, wearing masks. I wear my mask anytime I go in some where. I don't wear it when I walk the Riverwalk. You don't have to touch anything and can generally maintain a distance.
True story here, on Saturday I had to go to the grocery store.
I went down a aisle and there was a woman about my age, we both had masks, so we kind of waited several feet apart for the other to get what we wanted. This guy, no mask, maybe 40ish came up behind me, left his buggy and got about 2 feet behind me looking for soup, just as I was. I was near the end of the aisle so I just excused my self to the end and watched and waited for him. Not real happy to be honest, but, ok.
The guy put 4 cans of soup in his buggy, picked up a couple of others, put them back, then put the soup he put in his buggy back on the shelf and started to walk away. I just looked at him and said that wasn't cool.
He said something and I told him to just leave, he came running back around the corner and stuck his finger in my face and said, I am a fighter man, you want some? I just looked at him and said Get out of her in a louder tone. He left.
The woman who I was next to came over, patted me on the shoulder a few times because she could tell I was agitated and said she saw and heard the whole thing. He was the ahoe.
I saw that guy in the checkout line, I just looked at him, and he said I'll stick my finger anywhere I want, I told him don't ever stick your finger in my face again pal. He started acting like a jerk. He started yelling at the guy in front of him about me telling him to not pick stuff up and put it back, the other shopper agreed with me. I told him to just check out, I would walk around the store for another few minutes. Just go home.
I told my wife about it when I got home and she got mad at me.
Go to Sunday, Pat needed something. We put our masks on, and went in to the store. Turns out that guy was in there at the same time and we made eye contact. I told my wife, that's the guy. A few aisles over, my wife a foot or two in front of me, the guy comes up to me to apologize. Said he had a bad day.
Pat heard it all. I told him no worries man, we all have bad days, it's all good. I gave him a elbow pump and we left good. I appreciated that.
That took me off the hook with her. She thought I was the one who caused the problem.
I'm relieved to read this. What you described sounds nowhere near safe enough for me or my family. If I had kids, they'd just have to find a way to live with disappointment.
It's going to be increasingly difficult for people to exercise discipline to slow/control this thing's spread. Glad you're exercising good judgement.
I can't believe how soft, selfish, and undisciplined so many folks are. I am so glad I played sports and they taught me the value of self-discipline when things get tough.
I'm relieved to read this. What you described sounds nowhere near safe enough for me or my family. If I had kids, they'd just have to find a way to live with disappointment.
It's going to be increasingly difficult for people to exercise discipline to slow/control this thing's spread. Glad you're exercising good judgement.
Both my kids are in travel baseball. This is putting everyone in a tough situation. Most parents are apprehensive, but do not want to be the ones to pull their kid(s) and have it pinned on them that there aren't enough kids to play the season.
On my youngest son's team, one coach wants to cancel and just have an extended Fall season (give it time to see the numbers after the reopening), the other coach is gung ho and thinks we should have never been delayed.
Even the kids are, for the most part, uneasy.
No gum, no seeds, no spitting, temp checks, masks on for the coaches at all times, no high fives, no handshakes, each team only uses their baseballs, 6 feet apart in the dugouts, kids with masks on in the dugout when not in the field of play, team meetings after the game (for our league anyway) will be done via Zoom. We've had three tournaments cancelled already.
When you have to have this many protocols in place, you probably just aren't ready to start up.
We have plenty of other things we can do as a family, hiking, boating, golf, parks etc., to keep us entertained.
Just an awkward situation. Most of the parents I have spoken with (both my kids teams have been together for several years now) had already moved on mentally from the Spring/Summer season and then Gov. DeWine announced baseball was open for play 5/26.
The question remains if the local communities will open the fields for play.
I'm relieved to read this. What you described sounds nowhere near safe enough for me or my family. If I had kids, they'd just have to find a way to live with disappointment.
It's going to be increasingly difficult for people to exercise discipline to slow/control this thing's spread. Glad you're exercising good judgement.
Like I said, I got the initial e-mail about having the summer games on Thursday. Couple hours later the e-mail about having to wear masks. I sat on it until last night, then replied.
There is a local facebook page I get. Some parents, even some coaches, were discussing softball and baseball, and the requirements - no other kids allowed to be at the park, having to wear a mask from the car to the fields, and from the fields to the car, not being able to share bats or helmets.........and 'what are all the other parents doing?'
I replied that, as an umpire, I decided to not do the games since I would have to wear a mask. Wouldn't be allowed, as a plate umpire, to be in a proper position (and I mentioned that even when an ump is IN the proper position many coaches and parents still don't think we can see).
Several of the coaches also mentioned they weren't excited about having to coach with a mask on, as well as having to distance, even in the dugout, etc.
Peen, h.s. games around here pay about $55 on average, per game. The summer games, and junior high games, avg. probably $40 a game, but most of the summer league games the umps do 2 games a night - $80 for being at the park from 5:30, for a 6 game, and then an 8 pm game...so, at the park from 5:30 til somewhere around 9:45, 10:00.
And believe it or not, games in a certain county I won't name....man, the fan behavior is crazy.
Both my son and daughter were on traveling teams. Baseball for my son and softball for my daughter. Both also played AAU basketball.
I was pretty hard-core in regards to all of that, but times have changed. If it were my kids, I would exercise caution. This situation is a new animal. Pushing your kids to be great competitors is one thing, putting them at risk is another.
Travel teams - around here, not school sponsored - many of those leagues, or at least many of the teams, have mandated that going to away games, only 1 kid in a car. Used to be 3 or so parents would drive the entire team - get 5 kids in van, 4 or 5 in another, and 3 in a car.
But now, say you have 13 kids on a team - that's 13 vehicles driving to an away game.
This is about where we are at right now. Pulling them all together. I know other families want to as well.
My kids are 11 and 12 and my wife and I are in our 30s, exercise regularly, both of us are runners. However, it's a situation where if something ever happened to one of us or let alone our kids, it would be tough to live with.
The more realistic scenario, the more we would expose ourselves to others outside our family (even with best practices put in place), the longer and longer it is until they could physically be around their grandparents and also increase the risk of others we may encounter.
Furthermore, 90% of their team's players, at some point or another, are on vacation after July 4th. Meaning we're jumping through all these hoops to essentially have one month (June) of baseball because we'll be short too many kids to field a team after that date.
Travel teams - around here, not school sponsored - many of those leagues, or at least many of the teams, have mandated that going to away games, only 1 kid in a car. Used to be 3 or so parents would drive the entire team - get 5 kids in van, 4 or 5 in another, and 3 in a car.
But now, say you have 13 kids on a team - that's 13 vehicles driving to an away game.
Yep. All the mandates are based off the Ohio Department of Health policy and the advisory board's (quite the group) guidelines.
My wife is able to stay at home so we took several kids to games when you had to be at away game early for warm-ups while their parents were still working.
This puts people in quite a bind right now.
Should have just cancelled and re-evaluated in late summer or early fall.
Yeah, I think you have the right attitude. I get the "push." We want our kids to succeed. Sports are a great teacher. Your boys are 11 and 12. My advice, not that you want it...LOL...would be to sit this one out. There is too much we don't know at this particular point in time.
Your boys are young enough that one season isn't a big deal. Others will make the same decision, so you should not have to worry about rejoining your old team or finding a new one.
Most colleges recruit from travel teams rather than high school games in baseball and softball. Your sons have a lot of time left.
I am not one of those paranoid people, but it's probably wise to get some real-life data about reopening things before you put your kids at risk.
One other thing...........I miss those days. We traveled all over w/our kids for travel ball. They were our vacations. That time period is when I left coaching because I wanted to spend time watching my kids play ball. Great times!
I certainly enjoy watching them compete and quite honestly and most importantly to have fun.
My wife and I do not really hold out hope or put great emphasis that they receive a sports scholarship offer someday. If this makes sense, I'd much rather my kids come to me someday and say, "I just got accepted in to the engineering program at Columbia or the school of science at Princeton" as compared to saying "I received a baseball/basketball scholarship at Cleveland State University."
Extremes, I know, but you understand my point.
Our emphasis has always been to challenge yourself educationally, first....sports second.
As to your other point, we have definitely had a blast traveling in the region to play in tournaments. The kids enjoy staying in hotels, swimming in the pool with their team and the bonding experience. We have a good group of parents as well.
I can't believe how soft, selfish, and undisciplined so many folks are. I am so glad I played sports and they taught me the value of self-discipline when things get tough.
I coached baseball for a long time. One time I picked up a bag of sunflower seeds. I didn't notice they were salt less seeds.
After a handful, which I didn't like, as asked one of my players if he wanted my seeds. He said sure, thanks.
After a handful he said these seeds don't have any salt on them!
I said I know, I don't eat the seeds, I just suck the salt off of them and spit them back in to the bag. The look on his face....I am pulling rib muscles laughing thinking about it....it was classic.
RIP Clark. He died in a house fire maybe 4 years ago. He will forever be a part of my life, and a darn funny one.
I do get what you are saying. My wife and I were the same way. I am of the opinion that sports helps build character. I think work ethic, respect, working cooperatively, perseverance, etc are all enhanced by playing competitive sports. We feel that those traits helped our kids become successful in both education and in their respective careers.
Exactly Vers, possible scholarships take a 2nd place to this.
I used to tell my hockey parents that we probably don't have an NHLer among us. It'd be nice but the odds are long. However, we do certainly have 17 future young men who will need to learn to win,lose, work and interact with others.
Exactly Vers, possible scholarships take a 2nd place to this.
I used to tell my hockey parents that we probably don't have an NHLer among us. It'd be nice but the odds are long. However, we do certainly have 17 future young men who will need to learn to win,lose, work and interact with others.
That was the sort of speech I gave football kids about their grades in school. They all think they'll be in the nfl. Millions of kids playing in leagues,to about 100 thousand playing in college, to 1500 in the nfl. I'd let them know their odds were not good, so keep your grades up.
I can't believe how soft, selfish, and undisciplined so many folks are. I am so glad I played sports and they taught me the value of self-discipline when things get tough.
Not only did I play sports, but my dad was a former master sergeant who grew up very poor in the mountains of SE Kentucky. He was born in 1930 and remembered well climbing out of the great depression.
The biggest thing he taught me early in life that I see most lacking in todays society is the difference between want and need. The lack of knowing how to take a look at your enemy, understanding its strengths and being tactical in how to battle and defeat that enemy.
Listening to your leadership. Leadership being the people that know the enemy and being able to develop a strategy to defeat it. In this case it would be the experts in the field of viruses and health.
I am very disappointed in hearing the way much of our nation has decided to ignore the very things needed to win a war in a time they also speak about strength. Strength isn't ignoring the evidence to bow to the wants and desires of those claiming that is a need.
And, just like that - the local parks and rec that cancelled the whole summer season (city league games and travel leagues), then decided to start it again on June 8th, but with the requirements I listed as well as others - the e-mail I sat on for 3-4 days before I told them I was out..............has no cancelled the entire season yet again.
arch, I know you’re involved with rec sports and youth sports ... so this is coming from someone in PA ... what’s the state of pickup/league basketball stuff for this summer in Ohio?
I know most communities around here have taped off basketball courts, and cops patrol to make sure no pick up games are occurring. Not arresting anyone, just telling them they can't play.
I know of a few communities, mine included, that flat out removed the rims and backboards - here, 4 different courts in town.
I know in several communities, mine included, cops are getting called by some people reporting "there are kids on the baseball/softball fields....." I do not know the states official stance, but I know enough that it seems to change quite often.
I know just yesterday I read that the lt. governor - sometime this weekend, made a statement along the lines of "the state never said spring sports couldn't occur. The state only mandated that schools be closed."
That ticked off a whole lot of h.s. spring sport coaches and h.s. A.D.'s. I've still not heard Jerry Snodgrass's comments - he's the head of Ohio High School Athletic Association. OHSAA.
Our pool is closed for the summer - well, the town's pool. A neighboring town is opening their pool.
No summer sports here, but another neighboring town is advertising that they'll be playing softball and baseball.
If you have covid or had covid right before dying, I can't see how the death is not covid related. On a side note, who is so bent out of shape that this had to become a thing?
People who feel like the numbers are being manipulated for political or financial reasons... it's a perfectly justifiable concern.
For all the bitching and moaning people/the media did about Georgia opening up early, we have passed the peak and there is no second wave in sight.
Gosh Eve does that mean guys like Portland, Pit and their ilk are wrong. I'm sure they are already working on their spin..
No. Not wrong. You’re early. Give it 2-3 weeks.
David Fahrenthold @Fahrenthold The state of Georgia made it look like its covid cases were going down ***by putting the dates out of order on its chart*** May 5 was followed by April 25, then back to May again, whatever made it look like a downslope.
For all the bitching and moaning people/the media did about Georgia opening up early, we have passed the peak and there is no second wave in sight.
Gosh Eve does that mean guys like Portland, Pit and their ilk are wrong. I'm sure they are already working on their spin..
No. Not wrong. You’re early. Give it 2-3 weeks.
David Fahrenthold @Fahrenthold The state of Georgia made it look like its covid cases were going down ***by putting the dates out of order on its chart*** May 5 was followed by April 25, then back to May again, whatever made it look like a downslope.
Nearly 108 million people in China's Jilin province could be forced back into lockdown after a growing group of new coronavirus infections triggered a backslide in the nation's push to return to normal.
The abrupt reversal in China's northeast region has once again cut off public transportation, closed schools and led to another round of quarantine.
Fan Pai, who works at a trading company in the nearby province of Liaoning, told Bloomberg News that people are starting to feel "more cautious" again.
"Children playing outside are wearing masks again," she said. "It's frustrating because you don't know when it will end."
The new clusters of coronavirus cases have also ignited everyone's worst fear that a second wave of the deadly disease could be on the horizon.
Wuhan, the Chinese city where the novel coronavirus was first reported in 2019, also saw new cases emerge last week, though neither the cases in Jilin or Wuhan have been as severe as the original outbreak.
Over the weekend, Jilin reported 120 new cases.
Chinese officials initially pinned the contagion's re-entry on Russia, but admitted local transmission also occurred.
How China handles its second wave of coronavirus likely will serve as a template for other countries.
The problem, some say, is that China's record of being less than truthful makes it almost impossible to believe its reported figures and response.
China has been at the center of controversy after being repeatedly accused of sitting on vital, lifesaving information about the severity of the coronavirus.
In recent weeks, the country hasn't done much to improve its image, aggressively going after its own trading partners who have called for an independent investigation into the origins of the virus. On Monday, Beijing imposed an 80.5 percent tariff on Australian beef barely a week after cutting off beef imports from the country after officials publicly backed a probe.
China also went after Taiwan, trying to silence its doctors and experts by locking them out of a seat at the World Health Assembly, the World Health Organization's annual summit.
Taiwan's doctors were the first to warn the world about human-to-human transmission.
On Monday at the WHA, the European Union's 27-member bloc called for the independent evaluation to "review experiences gained and lessons learned" but China shot down the request, arguing Beijing had provided all relevant data to the WHO and other countries "in a most timely fashion."
"The work should be based on science and professionalism led by the WHO and conducted in an objective and impartial manner," Chinese President Xi Jinping said. "We must strengthen global governance in public health."
As of Tuesday, the killer contagion had infected more than 4.8 million people and claimed more than 319,000 lives worldwide.
China's handling of the pandemic as well as its cozy relationship with the WHO have been criticized by President Trump as well as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and several bipartisan lawmakers.
Multiple intelligence reports also claimed China misled the world by purposely underreporting its numbers of patients and deaths. In a classified report sent to the White House more than a month ago, intelligence officials said China's public record of COVID-19 infections was deliberately deceptive and incomplete.
In April, Trump suspended funding to the WHO and called the medical arm of the United Nations "China-centric." He claimed it had put "political correctness over lifesaving measures." However, the administration is on the brink of restoring some of the funding, "Tucker Carlson Tonight" recently reported.
U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar II said Monday that the U.S. "supports an independent review of every aspect of WHO's response to the pandemic."
"We must be frank about one of the primary reasons this outbreak spun out of control: There was a failure by this organization to obtain the information that the world needed, and that failure cost many lives," he added.
And without naming names, he said, "In an apparent attempt to conceal this outbreak, at least one member state made a mockery of their transparency obligations, with tremendous costs for the entire world. We saw that WHO failed at its core mission of information sharing and transparency when member states do not act in good faith."
and I saw a lot of what you did. Many bikers at the gas stations were not social distancing 
