A couple thoughts about the Patriots game - 01/06/20 07:03 PM
Since the Saturday game thread was locked...
- When did Belichick become so bad at 4th down strategy? Years ago, he was one at the forefront of being one of the league's most aggressive on 4th downs. Since then, he has actually regressed while most of the league has gotten more aggressive, to the point where he is actually now worse than average in this category.
Given the more consistent nature of punting, you rarely have the immediate sort of feedback that leads to criticizing coaches when they punt instead of making a better decision of going for it.
So going off memory here a couple days later, there were 2 situations where Belichick punted on 4th and manageable while trailing in the 4th quarter. First one was earlier in the 4th quarter, I think 4th and 4 but slightly past midfield, where you'd clearly go for it in a neutral game situation, and all the moreso when trailing in the 4th quarter. That was Punt the game away call #1
Punt the game away call #2 was 4th and 3, I think with 3:11 or so left in the game. It was in Patriots territory but losing with that little left in the game on a manageable 4th down, punting is just excruciatingly bad. What exactly are they hoping for? Derrick Henry to bulldoze his way to a first down and an easy win? Hope for a 3 and out and get the ball back the same position but with less time and none of your timeouts?
Note that these were objectively bad decisions, regardless of what ended up happening in the game. "But Belichick did it so it must be smart" is a silly counterargument though I expect to hear it anyway. There was some rain that day and more of a defense/special teams component to the game than usual, but not enough to justify those decisions.
- So the Patriots did end up getting the ball back... down by 1 point, at their own 1 yard line, with 15 seconds left on the clock.
Was an intentional safety a legitimate possibility? Just snap the ball out of the endzone; no time would be lost.
The Patriots could then attempt an "onside kick" on the safety punt and try to recover the ball down 3 with at least somewhat reasonable field position. It would be a long shot but possibly better than trying to score from your own 1 yard line with 15 seconds left? Of course, they threw a pick 6 which led to other interesting possibilities.
- When did Belichick become so bad at 4th down strategy? Years ago, he was one at the forefront of being one of the league's most aggressive on 4th downs. Since then, he has actually regressed while most of the league has gotten more aggressive, to the point where he is actually now worse than average in this category.
Given the more consistent nature of punting, you rarely have the immediate sort of feedback that leads to criticizing coaches when they punt instead of making a better decision of going for it.
So going off memory here a couple days later, there were 2 situations where Belichick punted on 4th and manageable while trailing in the 4th quarter. First one was earlier in the 4th quarter, I think 4th and 4 but slightly past midfield, where you'd clearly go for it in a neutral game situation, and all the moreso when trailing in the 4th quarter. That was Punt the game away call #1
Punt the game away call #2 was 4th and 3, I think with 3:11 or so left in the game. It was in Patriots territory but losing with that little left in the game on a manageable 4th down, punting is just excruciatingly bad. What exactly are they hoping for? Derrick Henry to bulldoze his way to a first down and an easy win? Hope for a 3 and out and get the ball back the same position but with less time and none of your timeouts?
Note that these were objectively bad decisions, regardless of what ended up happening in the game. "But Belichick did it so it must be smart" is a silly counterargument though I expect to hear it anyway. There was some rain that day and more of a defense/special teams component to the game than usual, but not enough to justify those decisions.
- So the Patriots did end up getting the ball back... down by 1 point, at their own 1 yard line, with 15 seconds left on the clock.
Was an intentional safety a legitimate possibility? Just snap the ball out of the endzone; no time would be lost.
The Patriots could then attempt an "onside kick" on the safety punt and try to recover the ball down 3 with at least somewhat reasonable field position. It would be a long shot but possibly better than trying to score from your own 1 yard line with 15 seconds left? Of course, they threw a pick 6 which led to other interesting possibilities.