DawgTalkers.net
Posted By: Versatile Dog Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 02:20 PM
I like a FS who can roam the deep portion of the field and make plays on the ball. I think in-the-box safeties are easy to find, but finding a guy who can play deep safety is much harder to obtain.

This is a statement about safeties from PFF:

Quote:
Free agency came last week, and with it plenty of activity. The safety position was one of the more active, with Justin Simmons and Anthony Harris earning the franchise tag, while players like Malcolm Jenkins, Eric Murray, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Tre Boston and others earned deals.

While free agency is often seen as the solution for all of a team’s needs, the draft is really where you find value in the offseason. And when it comes to safety, there are a decent number of prospects at the position.


I'm going to talk about three of these safeties and would welcome your opinion on any of those guys and/or add other prospects who might fit at FS for the Browns. I ask that we not suggest Strong Safeties/In-the-box types.

Grant Delpit, LSU. I think he might be drafted late round 1 to mid-second.

Geno Stone, Iowa. Might be available in round 3.

Ashtyn Davis, Cal. Probably 4th round.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 02:24 PM
Quote:
Even after a rough junior season, LSU safety Grant Delpit is a good analytical prospect

By Eric Eager
Mar 24, 2020



[Editor's Note: PFF's new college-to-pro projection system is powered by AWS machine learning capabilities.]

After a sophomore season in which he earned an 84.4 overall grade in 847 snaps, Delpit regressed a bit his junior year to 68.7, missing 20 tackles and allowing 14 of 22 passes into his coverage to be completed. Injuries were a big reason for this decline, as an undisclosed preseason injury lingered throughout the season.

Using our college-to-pro system, we will look at Delpit’s projected performance during his rookie contract. This projection uses his play-by-play data from college, adjusts it for play- and opponent-level context and weighs more-recent data more than past data.

How Delpit Projects as a Coverage Player

Coverage is the most important thing a safety does, and Delpit projects well there. Only Geno Stone of Iowa projects to have a bigger “playmaker rate” — rate of passes broken up and interceptions per primary coverage snap — than Delpit does in the context-free environment:

Grant Delpit’s projected completion percentage allowed and playmaker rate during the first five years of his NFL career in the context-free environment.

No safety plays in a context-free environment, though, as some guys are predominantly slot guys, some play deep and others play in the box. Delpit split time almost equally a season ago between deep safety (385 snaps) and slot cornerback (316). If we give him said split as a coverage player, his projections get even better (and more narrow, since the uncertainty of “what will he do?” largely goes away):

Grant Delpit’s projected completion percentage allowed and playmaker rate during the first five years of his NFL career in an environment where 20 percent of his coverage snaps are in the box, 40 percent are in the slot and 40 percent are deep. Median rates for free safeties in the NFL are represented by the dotted lines.

Of course, Delpit’s role will be largely determined by who drafts him, and George Chahrouri and I went with Tampa Bay in Round 1 in our mock draft. If Delpit were deployed more like Jamal Adams was in Todd Bowles’ scheme in New York in 2018, which was more of a 55% box, 15% slot, 30% deep split, his projected coverage data takes a little bit of a hit, but still lands him as one of the most efficient playmakers in his class:

Grant Delpit’s projected completion percentage allowed and playmaker rate during the first five years of his NFL career in an environment where 55 percent of his coverage snaps are in the box, 15 percent are in the slot and 30 percent are deep.

Delpit's projections in coverage come with some impressive statistical comps: Earl Thomas, Tony Jefferson, Ricardo Allen, Montae Nicholson and Tavon Wilson.

How Delpit Projects as a Pass Rusher

Over the past two seasons, Delpit has been a good pass rusher, taking part in six sacks and generating 18 total pressures. He was better in 2018 than 2019, but the talent to do some damage in that area of the game is there.

Grant Delpit’s projected pressure and sack rate during the first five years of his NFL career in the context-free environment.

While this pressure rate is not as high as some of his contemporaries (Kyle Dugger, Antoine Winfield Jr., Xavier McKinney), it increases with different usages and is certainly passable at the position.

How Delpit Projects as a Run Defender

Run defense is one of those things that teams probably overvalue in safeties, but it exemplifies traits that are important to have in the passing game as well (being able to make tackles short of the line the gain). In this regard, Delpit is one of the best in his class in terms of stop rate (rate of tackles that elicit an unsuccessful play by the offense) and positively graded play rate in the run game:

Grant Delpit’s projected stop and positively graded play rate in the running game during the first five years of his NFL career in an environment where he plays 20 percent of his snaps in the box, 40 percent in the slot and 40 percent deep.

Despite some regression during his junior year, Delpit is a great pro prospect at an important position. Due to recency bias, we’ve seen his stock decline over the past year, meaning that whoever selects him come April will get a value — especially for a ready-made defense in need of a playmaker.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 02:28 PM
Quote:
Geno Stone's statistical projections are among the best in his class

By Eric Eager
Mar 25, 2020

Like his contemporary, Grant Delpit, Stone’s best year came in his sophomore campaign, when he earned an 88.4 overall PFF grade. Unlike Delpit, Stone did not regress significantly in 2019, earning an 83.4 overall PFF grade. His interceptions fell from four to one, but he broke up another three passes and allowed only 22 of 36 passes into his coverage to be completed, while earning four pressures and 19 stops.

Using our college-to-pro system, we will look at Stone’s projected performance during his rookie contract. This projection uses his play-by-play data from college, adjusts it for play- and opponent-level context and weighs more-recent data more than past data.

How Stone Projects as a Coverage Player

Stone is projected to be the biggest playmaker in this safety class, edging out Delpit in terms of percentage of primary coverage snaps where he earns an interception or pass break up:

Geno Stone’s projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate during the first five years of his NFL career in the context-free environment.

Stone’s context-free projection gives him comps like Earl Thomas and Justin Simmons in coverage, which is great company to have. Context matters, though, and the majority of Stone’s snaps came deep (521 of 838) his final season as a Hawkeye. Adjusting for this:

Geno Stone’s projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate during the first five years of his NFL career in an environment where 20 percent of his snaps are in the box, 20 percent in the slot and 60 percent deep.

Stone’s ability as a playmaker remains when we project him as a predominantly free safety, as do his impressive statistical comps.

How Stone Projects as a Run Defender

We don’t have much in the way of data for Stone as a pass rusher, since he did so on just seven snaps at Iowa (earning a pressure on five of those snaps). However, he did have almost 600 snaps of run defense, and those snaps put him in the middle of the class in terms of projected run-stop percentage or projected percentage of snaps earning a positively graded play designation from us at PFF.

His comps as a run defender are deep players like Earl Thomas and Ha Ha Clinton Dix, as well as more versatile guys like Adrian Amos and Will Hill, which is roughly in the middle of the pack in his class and above average relative to rookie-deal free safeties in the NFL. Run defense is not as important as other aspects of football, and thus while Stone is not elite in that area, his potential as a coverage player along with this projection as a defender in the run game is a good combination. Any team with a need at deep safety, or just looking to play more safeties in a modern defense that deploys three or more, will be getting a good one in the former Iowa standout.

Geno Stone’s projected run stop rate and positively graded play rate in the run game during the first five years of his NFL career in an environment where 20 percent of his snaps are in the box, 20 percent in the slot and 60 percent deep.


Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 02:32 PM
Quote:
Ashtyn Davis has the makings of a good deep safety in the NFL

By Eric Eager
Mar 27, 2020

In the final installment of our week studying safeties, we look at former Cal superstar Ashtyn Davis. After a junior season that saw him earn an 89.3 coverage grade, intercept four passes and break up another five, Davis was solid as a senior, allowing just 20 completions into his coverage, intercepting two passes and breaking up another two, earning a 73.8 coverage grade in the process. Almost two-thirds of Davis’ 673 snaps as a senior were in the deep part of the field, with over 100 at slot corner.

An injury forced Davis out of Cal’s bowl game, the Senior Bowl and all but the bench press (14 reps) of the combine, which means we have incomplete information from which to project. Alas, our system in these instances simply incorporates his play-by-play information, adjusting for context and level of competition:

How Davis Projects as a Coverage Player

Davis’ projected completion percentage allowed is one of the better ones in his class, and his near-10-percent playmaker rate (rate of interceptions and pass breakups per primary coverage snap) is also one of the top marks in the context-free environment.

If we assume that 70 percent of his snaps in coverage are deep, with another 15 percent in the slot, his projection becomes more like that of Grant Delpit of LSU, Geno Stone of Iowa and Kyle Dugger of Lenoir Rhyne, with statistical comps like Justin Simmons and Earl Thomas:

Ashtyn Davis’ projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate generated in an environment where 70 percent of his coverage snaps are at deep safety, 15 percent are at slot corner and 15 percent are in the box. Dashed vertical lines are league median rates for rookie-deal safeties from 2015-2019.

Projections that use Davis as more of a free safety are all significantly better than those that use him in the box or in the slot (or are context-free). This hurts Davis a little bit in a league where all-around safeties like Derwin James and Tyrann Mathieu are en vogue. However, being able to patrol the middle of the field the way Davis projects to will always help a defense. And it will continue to be that way as the requirement is increasingly six defensive backs in the modern NFL.

How Davis Projects as a Pass Rusher

Given that Davis’ best role in the NFL will be as a deep player, he doesn’t project as a productive player as a pass rusher, having earned only two pressures on 35 career snaps as a blitzer while at Cal. Given his lack of testing at the combine, and lack of production rushing the passer in college, he’s understandably projected to be in the bottom 20 percent at his position in this facet of play.

How Davis Projects as a Run Defender

Davis is not projected to be a terribly productive run defender, either, but this again is by virtue of where he’s projected to play more so than anything having to do with his ability. He missed only 19 tackles in four seasons with the Bears but produced only 29 stops during that time (just 10 last year).

If we assume he plays more in the box (a 50/50 split), his projection understandably improves, with comps like Matthieu, Justin Simmons and Anthony Harris. Thus, as opposed to this being an “unproductive” projection, it’s more of a “styles make fights” projection, with plenty of very good overall safeties having similar run defense statistics as Davis’ projection.

Ashtyn Davis’ projected stop rate and positively graded plays generated in the run in an environment where 50 percent of his coverage snaps are at deep safety and 50 percent are in the box. Dashed vertical lines are league median rates for rookie-deal safeties from 2015-2019.

Davis has the makings of a good deep safety in the NFL, which is why we had him in the first round of our mock a few weeks ago. With superstars the caliber of Earl Thomas, Justin Simmons, Tyrann Matthieu and Anthony Harris in his comps, the team that gets Davis will have one of the most important aspects of secondary play at the great value implied by the rookie deal.

Posted By: guard dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 04:37 PM
Of the three that you selected I prefer Stone and Davis. To me, they fit the Free Safety position best. Davis' best assets are his range, speed and open-field tackling, in that order.

Stone seems to have superb instincts for the position. He diagnoses where the QB is going with the pass quite well. He gets his hands on passes frequently. He makes quick decisions. I really like his physical style of play.

There are questions about Delpit's "want to" as a tackler. I don't know if they are accurate but that concerns me. Even more than Greedy's reputation as a tackler because safeties have to be physical. My limited impression of him is that he was deployed as a box safety more than the back end.

Now, two guys who are not "pure" FS who I believe can play that position well are McKinney and Winfield. I saw a twitter post earlier this week that showed that McKinney had an almost even 1/3 position alignment between free, strong and slot. Winfield was a little less even with about a 40 percent strong, 35 percent free and 25 percent slot alignment. I can't find that chart now which also included Simmons. If anybody locates it please post it.

Jordan Fuller should not be left out of this conversation. He had an outstanding senior campaign. With the changes defensively by OSU from 2018 to 2019, it showed in his production. He improved his tackling. He has been very good in coverage. He's smart and he has a reputation for studying the game. I think he will be a solid pro.

JR Reed of Georgia is ranked as a solid prospect. I'm looking at his tape currently. My sleeper FS pick is Reed's cousin, Nigel Warrior of Tenn.
Posted By: PitDAWG Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 04:43 PM
I agree with you to a great extent on the basis we can see Stone as being more physical. But at the same time, using Greedy as your example, he wasn't actually asked or required to be physical where he played in college.

We have seen here he is a willing and solid tackler. But when making a draft pick I think it's far more wise to draft based on what is known rather than a projection of what might be.
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 04:47 PM
If we could get Davis in a mid round I’d be very happy. I think he’s a good prospect, despite some dropping of his stock
Posted By: guard dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 05:09 PM
It's not clear to me what you are saying related to my impression of Delpit as a tackler. Supposedly his stock has slipped and the reason sighted is concern about his tackling. I brought up Greedy not because I think he's a bad tackler, to the contrary.

That perception did exist though. I think its more of a concern when that tag is placed on a Safety.
Posted By: PitDAWG Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 05:19 PM
I simply meant that that the fact we have not seen that physicality does not mean it isn't there. The exact same concerns were spoken about widely concerning Greedy before the draft. As you seem to agree with, those concerns turned out to be false.

I understand that the physical portion of the game is more needed at the safety position. Yet at the same time a CB who isn't a physical tackler leads to a lot of WR's breaking away leading to points.

Bottom line is, since we haven't seen the more physical style of play from him, it's an unknown. I don't like trying to draft a player that has question marks surrounding him that you have no answer to.

Thus, I'm actually trying my best to agree with you.
Posted By: Hammer Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 05:23 PM
Geno from that list, but I would prefer Winfield.
Posted By: guard dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 05:26 PM
LOL, thumbsup
Posted By: Milk Man Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 05:38 PM
j/c...

I'd add Terrell Burgess to the list.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/terrell-burgess?id=32194255-5210-2577-4960-9b8e33e83c2a
Posted By: guard dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 05:41 PM
j/c

ANALYST'S REPORTS: Nigel Warrior
Marino
Pros - Versatile - lines up in deep zones, the slot, in the box and fills multiple roles. Generally sound in coverage when mirroring routes and layering coverage. Highly physical player that is willing to play through contact and is a good finisher. Contact balance and hitting power are ideal. Has a quick trigger to run alleys, fill windows and find the football. Motor is outstanding and he always finds himself around the football. Checks the boxes in terms of size and athletic ability.

Cons - Leaves some ball production on the field with dropped interceptions and not putting himself in a better position to make plays on the ball. Angles and paths to the football in coverage sometimes fail him. Has to develop more consistency playing the ball to maximize his value.

Updated 07/29/19

Link
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 05:47 PM
I’d always draft someone with that name lol
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 06:12 PM
Good contributions, guys.

Originally Posted By: Hammer
Geno from that list, but I would prefer Winfield.


Can you give us a breakdown on Winfield? Strengths/Weaknesses?

And is he the son of the the great corner by the same name?
Posted By: PastorMarc Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 06:27 PM
ANTOINE WINFIELD JR. -- The son of former Jim Thorpe Award winner and three-time NFL All-Pro cornerback Antoine Winfield Sr. somehow only gained three-star recruit status after his career at The Woodlands High School in Texas. He stepped into the starting lineup at safety for the Gophers in nine games as a true freshman, recording 52 stops, 2.5 for loss, four pass breakups and an interception (which he returned for an 82-yard score). Winfield's next two seasons ended in eerily similar fashions. He started the first four games of the 2017 (20 tackles, sack, two pass breakups, one blocked kick) and 2018 (17 tackles, one interception) seasons, and then missed the rest of each campaign with hamstring and foot injuries, respectively. The injuries happened against Maryland each year, as well. Healthy for all 13 starts in 2019, Winfield excelled. He was a first-team Associated Press All-American and first-team All-Big Ten selection after leading Minnesota with 88 tackles (3.5 for loss, three sacks) and seven interceptions (returning one for a score). Winfield also broke up another pass and forced two fumbles on the year.

Analysis

By Lance Zierlein
NFL Analyst
NFL Comparison
T.J. Ward
Overview
Winfield isn't as tall or as long as teams like and he's an average athlete, but he's an interchangeable safety who can flat out play. Winfield is stout and strong with above average body control and balance. He can bang on tight ends in coverage and support the run near the box. His angles to the ball are efficient against the run or pass. He's very instinctive and sees plays unfold, but doesn't have ballhawking twitch to challenge a high number of throws. His tackle net isn't as wide in the open field, so he must tackle with excellent fundamentals. Winfield isn't a star but he's a quality building block with the toughness and intelligence to help fortify the back end.

Strengths
Compact frame with above-average strength
Highly instinctive and is always under control
Watched tape at an early age with Pro Bowl cornerback father
Takes cues from the quarterback
Recognition of play design puts him in opportunistic positioning
Anticipates pattern breaks in space
Ball tracking comes naturally
Turns to locate the ball with back to the quarterback
Pursuit leverage and angles to the ball are a strength
Comes to balance and sees what he hits as tacker
Strikes with intensity and focus
Looks to punch out fumbles and create turnovers

Weaknesses
Missed extensive time in 2017 and 2018 due to injuries
Below-average height and length for jump balls downfield
Range over the top is a little bit limited
Hip tightness prevents fluid transitions
Sluggish to recover when he bites too hard on the cheese
Below-average burst to drive on throws and make plays on the ball
Lack of length shows up as a tackler
Struggles to wrap and finish if positioning and footwork aren't on point
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 06:36 PM
Thanks Pastor. I thought his skills were better suited to SS than FS, but I read a couple of other reports in addition to the one you provided and he might be able to play the deep safety.

Good. Another prospect who will be available after round 1.
Posted By: PastorMarc Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 06:37 PM
Love Winfield Here are some more Stats

Prospect Info College Minnesota r-Sophomore 5' 9" 203 lbs Prospect Grade

6.36 Will be starter within first two seasons Combine Results u-unofficial

40 Yard Dash 4.45 Vertical Jump 36.0 Broad Jump 124.0
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 06:48 PM
Here is PFF's take:

Quote:
S Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota

After getting medical hardship waivers in both 2017 and 2018, Winfield broke out in a big way this season. He not only showed the physicality that his father was known for, but he also had some great angles and instincts on the back end en route to an 89.5 coverage grade. While he technically has two years of eligibility left after this season, Winfield’s stock may not go any higher than it already has after his seven interceptions in 2019.

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-2019-all-draft-stock-team

Check out this game-saving pick:



Posted By: guard dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 07:09 PM
Not a lot out there on Warrior. He didn't get invited to the Combine. I would definitely look at him as a UDFA.

Here's what I could find.



YR GAMES PLAYED TACKLES TFL SACKS INTERCEPTIONS
2016 5 22 1.0 0 0
2017 12 83 3.5 1.0 1
2018 12 64 1.0 0 0
2019 12 60 2.0 0 4

4 Ints as a Senior.
Posted By: bbrowns32 Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 07:10 PM
Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
Quote:
Ashtyn Davis has the makings of a good deep safety in the NFL



This has been my preferred pick in Rd 2 for the last while. Good catch - he might last to our pick but I would move up a few to make certain we get him. I don't expect him to go in the first round (but one never knows)...
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 08:17 PM
Nice Thread thumbsup
Posted By: Bard Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 09:54 PM
Draft him! That jersey would have to sell! LOL

I sometimes struggle with predictions of how college play will translate to NFL's every Sunday predictions. I certainly want a tackler and a man who can push cover when a stop is needed.
I hope we draft one or more of these, even if for gunners or PS.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/29/20 11:45 PM
Thank you.

And please chime in if you have any thoughts on the deep safety or FS position and this draft. I know you study college football a lot and your opinion is respected.
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 12:26 AM
Agreed w/you
Posted By: jacksondawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 12:28 AM
Second round Gladney Tcu I am taking a 1st round cornerback and start him from day one as a fs.
Round3 Fulton CB lsu I will convert either one
POINT draft either FUlton or Gladney with a fast linebacker and shut down all receiving tight end.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 12:31 AM
Hey guys.............when researching the deep safeties, keep an eye on guys who graded well playing at deep safety and in the slot. I think both are important to the position. You want guys who can roam the deep part of the field and then slide up and cover the slot receiver.

I think guys who grade high in both areas are very valuable.
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 01:12 AM
KYLE DUGGER

HEIGHT: 6' 1"

WEIGHT: 217 lbs

ARMS: 32 7/8”

HANDS: 10 3/8"

Prospect Grade 6.32

Lenoir-Rhyne University has not had a player drafted since 2000, but NFL teams have been visiting the campus with interest due to Dugger's talents. The former All-County pick from Fayetteville, Georgia (in football and basketball) garnered second-team All-American and first-team All-South Atlantic honors as a defensive back (31 tackles, one for loss, two interceptions, four pass breakups) and punt return specialist (12 returns, 175 yards, 14.6 average, two touchdowns) despite starting only seven games due to a hand injury as a senior. He was a first-team All-South Atlantic Conference selection as a defensive back in 2018, recording 76 tackles, three interceptions, 10 pass breakups, three fumble recoveries, and two forced fumbles. Dugger was also a first-team pick as a return specialist, averaging 17.2 yards per punt return (31 returns, 534 yards) and scoring twice (also nine returns, 180 yards, 20.0 average on kick returns). SAC coaches voted him second-team all-conference in 2017 after he made 87 tackles, 4.5 for loss, an interception, and six pass breakups in 10 starts. He had to redshirt the fall of 2016 after suffering a season-ending injury in the opener. Dugger impressed Bears coaches during his redshirt season and they started him 10 times the following year (43 tackles, four interceptions, two pass breakups).

Analysis
By Lance Zierlein


Overview:

It's rare to find a safety with elite size, speed, explosiveness and production at a Power 5 school and almost impossible to find one at a Division II school. Dugger crammed the stat sheet full and used those elite traits to dominate the opposition. At times, he seems bored with his level of competition, but his engagement can be instant and urgent when it needs to be. He plays with controlled violence and carries an alpha demeanor on the field. He has soft hands and is rangy, but needs to train his eyes and improve his fundamentals before he's coverage-ready. Dugger is a versatile, scheme-friendly safety who helps immediately on special teams and could develop into a talented NFL starter.

Strengths:

--Looked like a man among boys on tape

--All the athletic gifts under the tree have his name on them

--Rare combination of size, speed and explosiveness

--Production galore in high-impact categories

--Plays with instant twitch to pursue tackles or break on throws

--Swoops down to snatch telegraphed passes

--Bodies up to contest downfield throws

--Can be vengeful striker or controlled, wrap-up tackler

--Clear understanding of leverage in pursuit

--Range for high safety and toughness to play in the bo-

--Speed and angles to run the alley and derail or contain outside runs

--Posted six career punt return touchdowns

Weaknesses:

--Must prove production carries over against better competition

--Looked bored at times with idle motor from back-side

--Inconsistent rush to fill downhill

--Bound a little tightly in his hips

--More reactive than instinctive

--Needs to improve footwork fundamentals

--Eyes get hung up on receivers over diagnosing QB's intentions

Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 01:23 AM
Nice job. I was hoping someone would bring up Dugger. I praised your knowledge of college football earlier and you did not disappoint. Awesome info.
Posted By: Milk Man Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 01:36 AM
Kyle Dugger is definitely an intriguing prospect and he played a lot of FS in college. Most project him as a LB in the NFL.

Tremendous athlete.

Curious to follow his career path.
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 01:39 AM
Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
Nice job. I was hoping someone would bring up Dugger. I praised your knowledge of college football earlier and you did not disappoint. Awesome info.

Ty,

He won't be the first Safety off the board ... but I would like to see him a Browns selection when the Draft is said and done.

Dugger is a poor mans Isaiah Simmons.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 01:45 AM
Originally Posted By: Milk Man
Kyle Dugger is definitely an intriguing prospect and he played a lot of FS in college. Most project him as a LB in the NFL.

Tremendous athlete.

Curious to follow his career path.


Interesting. Not questioning you, but why are folks saying he projects as a LBer?
Posted By: Milk Man Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 02:03 AM
Haven't looked into it entirely. Just going off a few reports I have seen. It'll be interesting to see how a team uses him.

Here's the title of an interesting article to read for those with access to PFF. I'd post it, but all the graphs would make it a mess. It goes into quite a bit more detail.

Small-school star Kyle Dugger brings uncertainty but has the measurables to take a chance on
Posted By: guard dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 02:07 AM
I think Dugger's body type gives some the idea that he can be that hybrid safety/LB. Maybe because there are a number of LBs in that 220 lbs. range who are run and hit LBs.

I think he would be miscast as a full-time LB.

You mentioned earlier guys who could play deep, one-high safety and cover the slot too. Possibly Jeremy Chinn, another small school player who is very much an Isaiah Simmon-lite kind of prospect. He does have man coverage ability 6'3", 220 lbs very rangy safety from South East Illinois U. I am uncertain if he's covered the slot though.
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 02:08 AM
Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
Originally Posted By: Milk Man
Kyle Dugger is definitely an intriguing prospect and he played a lot of FS in college. Most project him as a LB in the NFL.

Tremendous athlete.

Curious to follow his career path.


Interesting. Not questioning you, but why are folks saying he projects as a LBer?


They where ... but not so much since the SR. Bowl.

I think most teams will now see him as a FS prospect who can also drop down and play the Big Nickel Safety/LB
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 02:10 AM
Quote:
Small-school star Kyle Dugger brings uncertainty but has the measurables to take a chance on


By Eric Eager
Mar 26, 2020



Kyle Dugger represents an interesting projection. He is a fifth-year senior out of Division II Lenoir Rhyne. In his year-23 season for the Bears, he earned a 76.7 coverage grade, allowing less than 35 percent of passes into his coverage to be complete, while generating an 81.7 run defense grade.

When stepping up in class, though, Dugger struggled a bit in 45 Senior Bowl snaps, allowing two touchdowns in coverage and only generating one stop, after a week in which he forced two incompletions in coverage during one-on-one drills. He followed up this less-than-stellar performance with an impressive showing in Indianapolis, running a 4.49 in the 40-yard dash and producing a 42-inch vertical jump and 134-inch broad jump.

With all of this conflicting information — his age, level of competition, Senior Bowl struggles and Indianapolis exploits — we turn to our college-to-pro projection system, which takes all of these data points into consideration, to project Dugger as an NFL player.


How Dugger Projects as a Coverage Player

Speed and explosiveness are big components of playing well in coverage. As such, we like Dugger here, as he projects similarly in terms of completion percentage against and playmaker rate (rate of interceptions and pass breakups) as LSU’s Grant Delpit, Minnesota’s Antoine Winfield and Iowa’s Geno Stone, with statistical comps like Ricardo Allen and Eric Reid:

Kyle Dugger’s projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate during the first five seasons of his career, in the context-free environment. Vertical dotted lines reflect league median during a player’s first five years at the safety position from 2015-2019.

Unlike some of his contemporaries, though, Dugger is a bigger player at 6-foot-1 and over 215 pounds and played the majority of his snaps either in the box or at slot cornerback. If this is reflected in his projections, the projections get better (and more narrow, given the decrease in uncertainty):

Kyle Dugger’s projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate during the first five seasons of his career, in an environment where 50 percent of his snaps are in the box or at slot corner, with the rest at deep safety. Vertical dotted lines reflect league median during a player’s first five years at the safety position from 2015-2019.


How Dugger Projects as a Pass Rusher

We have less than five snaps of Dugger as a pass rusher during his final year at Lenoir Rhyne, so his projection is going to be a position median-plus-athleticism situation, which again looks favorably at him due to his size-explosiveness combination:

Kyle Dugger’s projected pressure and sack rate during the first five seasons of his career, in the context-free environment.

Dugger’s projected pressure and sack rate are both top five in his class at the safety position, making him the only safety in the top five in both pass defense-related projections.


How Dugger Projects as a Run Defender

While run defense doesn’t matter all that much for safeties, it’s important for players at the position to keep big plays from happening should players get to the second level (see Chiefs star Tyrann Mathieu in the Super Bowl). Dugger projects as an above-average player in this facet of play as well, both for his draft class and among safeties during their first five years in the NFL:

Kyle Dugger’s projected stop rate and rate of positively graded plays versus the run during the first five seasons of his career, in an environment where more than 50 percent of his snaps are in the box or in the slot, and the other 50 percent deep. Vertical dotted lines reflect league median during a player’s first five years at the safety position from 2015-2019.

Dugger’s comps in the run game include Sean Davis, Will Hill, Major Wright and Keith Tandy.

Players like Dugger — and coverage as a facet of play — are very difficult to project, but it’s encouraging for the team that will acquire the former Division II star that he looks like a good all-around prospect. Given the increased variance bestowed upon players with a small sample size against premiere competition, Dugger is probably the best value for a team that already has its five or six starters in the secondary but could use the boost that the tail of Dugger’s distribution affords them, should he become a star.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 02:12 AM
Thanks bro. I will try and research Chinn. Please share any info you can find. You know I always respect your football takes, even when you are wrong. LOL...........just kidding about the latter part.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 02:13 AM
Thanks dawg.
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 02:15 AM
Originally Posted By: guard dawg
I think Dugger's body type gives some the idea that he can be that hybrid safety/LB. Maybe because there are a number of LBs in that 220 lbs. range who are run and hit LBs.

I think he would be miscast as a full-time LB.

You mentioned earlier guys who could play deep, one-high safety and cover the slot too. Possibly Jeremy Chinn, another small school player who is very much an Isaiah Simmon-lite kind of prospect. He does have man coverage ability 6'3", 220 lbs very rangy safety from South East Illinois U. I am uncertain if he's covered the slot though.


Jeremy Chinn was the next prospect that I was going to mention ... good call.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 02:16 AM
You guys have made this a very informative thread. I really do appreciate it. I've learned a lot.
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 02:29 AM
This in it self is impressive to learn.

Quote:
where 50 percent of his snaps are in the box or at slot corner, with the rest at deep safety
Posted By: guard dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 02:36 AM


This Google Sheet Database is very dense with prospects from every position. Not just Safeties.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...#gid=1274523929


From a different source: Profile on Jeremy Chinn
Three different analysts profile him, follow the links.
https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/jeremy-chinn/LBtJPoKRIv
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 02:36 AM
Senior Bowl

Thursday, Jan 23, 2020 11:45 AM

Senior Bowl Day 2 Social Roundup: Who's impressing at Browns' positions of need?

Andrew Gribble
SENIOR STAFF WRITER

Earlier in the week, we spotlighted 10 players at the Senior Bowl who could make some sense for the Browns in the upcoming draft. The vast majority of them were at what are universally considered "positions of need" for the 2020 edition of the Browns.

We're checking in on a few of those positions in today's roundup of everything we saw on social media from those who are getting a close look at the Senior Bowl practices.

Lenoir-Rhyne's Kyle Dugger was included in our list of players to watch, and he's been a standout player through the first two practices. The small-school safety is dangerous both at his regular position and as a returner.
Posted By: eotab Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 01:35 PM
What are your thoughts of Brandon Jones as maybe our pick at the end of the 3rd round #97???
Posted By: cfrs15 Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 08:25 PM
I think Ashtyn Davis is a perfect fit for the NFL right now. He played a lot of single high safety in college. He is also athletic enough to cover in the slot (he didn't run at the combine but there were rumors of him potentially running in the 4.20s). I would strongly consider taking him in the second round.
Posted By: Pdawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 08:30 PM
https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootball...ystery-man/amp/

I can’t get the article to post off my phone.
Posted By: WSU Willie Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 09:30 PM
j/c

I've never quite understood why there aren't more CBs who convert to FS when moving to the NFL. I'm talking about guys with some size - so they don't get crushed - who can cover a little but maybe aren't fast enough for CB but plenty fast for FS...basically.

Even vet CBs as they age don't seem to make that transition with frequency. I think Woodson is the only one of note that I can remember.

Is it the "Center fielder" trait in a good FS that is missing in many CBs? Why isn't a good zone CB a candidate for FS? Is it the ability to tackle in space - or lack thereof? Or the ability/desire to tackle...period?

Or is it simply that position versatility in the NFL is just that darn difficult?
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/30/20 10:04 PM
Originally Posted By: cfrs15
I think Ashtyn Davis is a perfect fit for the NFL right now. He played a lot of single high safety in college. He is also athletic enough to cover in the slot (he didn't run at the combine but there were rumors of him potentially running in the 4.20s). I would strongly consider taking him in the second round.


I hadn't heard that. (:40 time) Ty...

I think that is when we will have to pull the trigger for one of the top Safeties too.
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/31/20 12:07 AM
J/c

I’ve looked up a bit on Chinn because I never really considered him. I think he’d be a good pick if it’s at a reasonable spot too
Posted By: eotab Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 03/31/20 04:13 PM
Originally Posted By: WSU Willie
j/c

I've never quite understood why there aren't more CBs who convert to FS when moving to the NFL. I'm talking about guys with some size - so they don't get crushed - who can cover a little but maybe aren't fast enough for CB but plenty fast for FS...basically.

Even vet CBs as they age don't seem to make that transition with frequency. I think Woodson is the only one of note that I can remember.

Is it the "Center fielder" trait in a good FS that is missing in many CBs? Why isn't a good zone CB a candidate for FS? Is it the ability to tackle in space - or lack thereof? Or the ability/desire to tackle...period?

Or is it simply that position versatility in the NFL is just that darn difficult?


Its all about the Benjamins $$$

CBs make significantly more than safeties especially 6'+ CBs

jmho
Posted By: oobernoober Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/01/20 02:21 PM
Right, but that still speaks to what Willie (I could've written out Willie's post verbatim, as I've been wondering the exact same thing), doesn't it?

I'm not talking about the blue-chip CB prospect that's gonna go top half of the first round, or the #1CB vet in the prime of his career. I'm talking about the vet who's aging and lost a step... or the zone CB that's draft/UDFA fringe-level. Of all teams, we've seen how gamechanging it can be to have that centerfielder type guy out there. Why don't more guys transition to that role? Seems like the smart thing to do for a guy that's looking at either not being able to start a career or not being able to continue it.
Posted By: eotab Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/01/20 05:02 PM
I'm talking about the vet who's aging and lost a step... or the zone CB that's draft/UDFA fringe-level.

That has actually happened often.
Rod Woodson comes to mind...HOF CB career and then in his last 5 seasons he played Safety!

Stud CBs losing a step and have the size moving to Safety. I can see Joe Haden ending his career at FS???

jmho
Posted By: WSU Willie Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/01/20 06:18 PM
Originally Posted By: eotab
I'm talking about the vet who's aging and lost a step... or the zone CB that's draft/UDFA fringe-level.

That has actually happened often.
Rod Woodson comes to mind...HOF CB career and then in his last 5 seasons he played Safety!

Stud CBs losing a step and have the size moving to Safety. I can see Joe Haden ending his career at FS???

jmho


I guess I don't see that happen "often". Woodson is the only guy that comes to mind.
Posted By: Hammer Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/01/20 06:34 PM
Charles Woodson, Malcom Jenkins, and Devin McCourty come to mind.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/01/20 11:38 PM
Ronnie Lott.



Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/01/20 11:43 PM
Aeneas Williams is another guy. I might have misspelled his name, though.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/01/20 11:43 PM
I always thought Richard Sherman would make the transition due to how intelligent he is.
Posted By: Dave Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/02/20 12:15 AM
In the 70's, the Browns drafted Clarence Scott to play CB, which he did for 8 years before switching to Safety for the last 5 years of his career. Of his years at Safety, one was at FS and 4 were at SS. Clarence was pretty good.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/ScotCl00.htm
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/02/20 12:16 AM
Good recall, Dave.
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/02/20 09:49 AM
JC
Has Randall received any offers, or has he signed somewhere? I’ve lost track
Posted By: MemphisBrownie Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/02/20 11:51 AM
Originally Posted By: Dawgs4Life
JC
Has Randall received any offers, or has he signed somewhere? I’ve lost track


I don't believe so. I think his reputation precedes him and it might be used against him in negotiations.

Not to mention, the free safety market was wild last offseason if I recall correctly. He might be trying to get top-end money. Not sure he comes anywhere close to that.
Posted By: oobernoober Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/02/20 12:57 PM
I know it's silly, but I'm still holding out hope...
Posted By: WSU Willie Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/02/20 03:34 PM
I suppose Randall qualifies as a another CB-to-S guy.
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/02/20 04:13 PM
Thanks .. I’m sure his ship has sailed here, but I honesty wouldn’t mind having him back if the cost isnt bad
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/02/20 04:13 PM
Originally Posted By: WSU Willie
I suppose Randall qualifies as a another CB-to-S guy.
my thoughts too
Posted By: oobernoober Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/02/20 05:29 PM
Originally Posted By: WSU Willie
I suppose Randall qualifies as a another CB-to-S guy.
That's a great catch. I forgot about that.

I always thought his situation was a little different. He was drafted around the same time as HaHa Clinton-Dix. HCD forced Randall out of FS (his position in college) and into a CB role, which he wasn't too great at.
Posted By: DiamDawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/02/20 07:01 PM
Originally Posted By: WSU Willie
I suppose Randall qualifies as a another CB-to-S guy.


Not really ... he has always been a hybrid ... coming out of college he was projected as a safety as that was his best position ...

He was drafted by the Pack and they needed him at CB so they played him there ... that’s when he started to whine and act like a little beatch ... His tude was so bad they gave him away for Kizer ...

Never liked dude and I’m thrilled he’s gone ... thumbsup
Posted By: W84NxtYrAgain Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/03/20 02:49 AM
j/c

Didn't Randall hand the ball to Hue?
Posted By: Pdawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/03/20 02:58 AM
Originally Posted By: W84NxtYrAgain
j/c

Didn't Randall hand the ball to Hue?


Yep
Posted By: Bard Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/03/20 02:12 PM
But, honestly, don't you miss Kizer's output? Hard to replace that. naughtydevil
Posted By: PeteyDangerous Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/03/20 02:25 PM
Originally Posted By: DiamDawg
Never liked dude and I’m thrilled he’s gone ... thumbsup


See, i liked him two years ago.

Last year, his play wasn't as good, and something must have went wrong with him.

Just seems so weird. Guys in their contract years are usually locked up and play their butts off. He made it clear he wanted a new contract, but it's like he did what he could not to get one.


The whole season was an interview for him. With the entire NFL. And he didn't seem to recognize that. I mean, what did he do to miss the Pittsburgh game? He just seemed to be in the doghouse, and it seemed like the effort wasn't there. Maybe he was banged up?
Posted By: eotab Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/03/20 04:35 PM
Usually once let go by a franchise they do not go against that decision only if it was done by the previous franchise but I believe this one is the one that has let him walk so I don't see them changing their minds.

I thought he was a good leader and then something just snapped last year??? Shame cause I thought he was one our best FS since 1999.

Shift from CB to Safety seems to have been successfully done by Pro Bowlers. Or possibly when done by average guys it goes unceromoniously???

jmho I think there are some pretty good safeties in this draft...not HOF top 10 guys but good solid prospects. Key is how many can convert to Man Coverage on the NFL level.

Posted By: GratefulDawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/06/20 11:47 PM
Draft Digest: The Depth at Safety – Part One
April 6, 2020 Neil Dunworth

https://brownsaccess.com/2020/04/draft-digest-the-depth-at-saftey-part-one/

In the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft, the Browns are going to have to go hunting for complimentary pieces to their Free Agent haul of the recent weeks. One of the position rooms that Andrew Berry has re-tooled this off-season has been the Safety room.

Prior to Free Agency, Cleveland only had one solitary safety under contract in Sheldrick Redwine. Along with cutting Morgan Burnett, Justin Burris and both Damarious Randall, Eric Murray leaving for pastures new. The Browns needed to pad out that room and they did so signing Karl Joseph & Andrew Sendejo. However, Joe Woods is likely to want Safeties that are various and plenty. You would have to think that this will be an area that could see one if not two safeties drafted on April 23rd.

I have discounted that the Browns will take one of the top 2/3 Safeties (McKinny, Delpit or Dugger) as the needs at Offensive Tackle is too great, but I have taken a look into the later rounds to see what may lay in store for Cleveland in this solid deep Safety class.

Ashtyn Davis
College: Cal (Senior)

Height: 6’1”

Weight: 202lbs

Former Track Star with varying predictions on him. A Groin injury plaguing him consistently through the draft cycle. Not being able to perform at the Senior Bowl or the combine may or may not hinder his draft stock. One of the many that also may suffer from the COVID-19 disruption, as he was planning to showcase his trackability in Cal’s Pro Day, but alas this is not unlikely to go ahead.

Medicals will be his biggest savior, as looking at his tape it is apparent that he was a track star, you don’t need to be an experienced NFL Scout to see that type of athleticism and speed. A really smooth runner with a great turn of hips. Super flexible and mirrors in pass protection very well. Born to play the single high Saftey role. His lack of experience playing football may also play into some trepidation from the front offices. Also slightly undersized at 202lbs, and as is a trait with a lot of the safeties in this draft missed tackles can come back to hinder him. Having missed 8 tackles last year, accounting for 12% of all of his tackles.


Davis works well in the box from a run-standpoint, with the 4th highest Solo Tackles at 35 with a market share of just under 7%. On a Cal team that had the tackle-a-Saurus Evan Weaver, this is not bad. He performed well in coverage also and was entrusted with snaps predominantly as a Free Safety. 409 with 120 snaps in the Box, with as many as a Slot Corner. His box scores were better in 2018, where he had a career-high 4 INTs and 5 PDs. In 2019 he finished with 2 INTs and 4 PDs, but his positioning over the middle, his range, and his instincts confound the fact that he had no other qualifying offers coming out of High School.

For me, I would pick Davis up in Round 2 or Round 3 and laugh all the way. In the knowledge that the traits this guy exudes…don’t grow on trees.

Jeremy Chinn
College: Southern Illinois (Senior)

Height: 6’3”

Weight: 221lbs

The genie is out of the bottle with Jeremy Chinn. Draftniks will be well aware of him since he went to Moblie, Alabama and impressed at the Senior Bowl. A lengthy and displaying hybrid Linebacker type, while he has a specific set of tools that are proving intriguing as the Draft cycle goes on. Smart academically and all the info back from the Combine was that he spoke well, and those that he met were left in no doubt that he has the brains to match the body.

As mentioned, Chinn has great length and his 32 1/8” arms will help also. Timed 40 meters of 4.45, and he displayed an athletic profile that beguiles his 221lb frame. On tape there are no concerns about his competitive spirit and even though he plays at a lower level his effort shone through.

He does have a few knocks though, on tape his 4.45 speed doesn’t always shine through and can be step or two slower. The level of competition may cause his stat sheet to be fools gold, even considering you can only face what’s put in front of you. Scheme will be important for him. At Southern Illinois, it has been said that he was not asked to play a lot of varied coverages, and he is better at stopping people over the middle as opposed to mirroring them in coverage. Saying that he accumulated 4 INTs, along with 3 PBUs, and 71 total tackles. His 48 solo tackles give him a 10.1 solo tackle share and landed him at 2nd overall in tackles for 2019.

He is going to need to develop and be schemed as he gains tenure in the NFL. He will have his suitors but many of them will need to impart the nuances of different coverages on him for him to reach his full potential. Someone is also going to want to convert him to a Linebacker but looking at his snap count for the last year he saw more snaps as a Free Safety (276 snaps) and a Big Nickel (202 Snaps) . Did I hear Big Nickel…….. going to intrigue Joe woods of that I’m sure.

Antoine Brooks Jr.
College: Maryland (Senior)

Height: 5’11”

Weight: 220lbs

This Senior out of Maryland is like an Exocet missile when he gets going. Too small for a traditional coverage safety but big enough to lay the timber on you, and he definitely does that. During his 2019 term in Maryland, he totaled 87 total tackles with 69 Solo tackles totaling 11.7% tackle share last year, according to PFF. In saying that, he has missed his fair share of tackles he missed 9 last year which was his best year but the previous year he missed 17 tackles while only totaling 58 so this may spook teams if it turns out that he has not fully learned from his 2018 season.

Brooks is going to be a box safety and essentially will rotate between Strong Safety and Middle Linebacker in the NFL. In 2019 he took snaps almost 50/50 between Run Defense (404) and Coverage (395). I personally would not be playing him in coverage at the next level. He has been shown to lose players especially TEs over the middle. Hips are not flexible enough and he does not mirror runs in man coverage. Also his 4.64 40 time is what you see on tape when he gets into the open field. He could play as a Slot Corner closer to the line of scrimmage and lined up there 496 times in 2019 as opposed to 159 at Strong Safety and 108 as a Deep Safety.

He will be versatile and his skill set will be coveted by coaches in the NFL. Think of Jabril Peppers lite, very lite, he will not stop from a motor point of view, but his skill set is closer to the line than further back. He is an accomplished blitzed and squirms through gaps really well. He would be a highlight player and fans will love his hits, effort and endeavor and his work ethic will click with NFL coaches also. Definite consideration from Round 4 onwards.

Conclusion
The Browns will be busy in their draft room scouring the talent for safeties. It is an area that has the most bandaids over it this year, and one I hope they will attack in the draft. Looking at the 10 safeties in this series, remember these are not in any particular order. There is some good talent deep in this draft for what the Browns want. Getting them at a premium draft value and to fit their scheme is the key.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 12:27 AM
Nice, informative article. I want a true FS and I am liking Ashton Davis more and more..........provided his medical turns out okay.
Posted By: Milk Man Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 12:54 AM
I've seen a number of mocks projecting Ashtyn Davis to the Browns with their second round pick.
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 01:07 AM
Bingo .. medical is the big issue, but if he clears he’s my guy
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 01:18 AM
Originally Posted By: Milk Man
I've seen a number of mocks projecting Ashtyn Davis to the Browns with their second round pick.


I thought he would go later due to the injury thing. I think I predicted 3rd or 4th round in my initial post on him.

He must be one of those guys who is trending up. I thought the Covid-19 thing would hurt his status, but apparently not.
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 01:38 AM
Give me Thomas, Queen, then Davis ... and I’d be happy smile
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 02:03 AM
Originally Posted By: Dawgs4Life
Give me Thomas, Queen, then Davis ... and I’d be happy smile


Nice selections, but
When did we get two first? wink
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 02:10 AM
Originally Posted By: Milk Man
I've seen a number of mocks projecting Ashtyn Davis to the Browns with their second round pick.


Me too ... and I would like to see it happen
if he is on the board @41.

1), LT 2), FS 3), OG/LB?
Posted By: guard dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 02:21 AM
I don't know how his draft stock is trending. I'm not sure how you would determine that, especially in the present circumstances. I think he could play deep for the Browns and his skill set is better than most for FS.

Unless there is a run on Safeties in the second round and Delpit Mckinney and Winfield are all off the board I think pick 41 is too high for Davis.

No way he is BPA at pick 41. That's a reach for need.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 02:23 AM
Like I said, I had him as 3rd or 4th round pick initially. I was just responding to a post that said he was mocked to us in the second.
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 02:36 AM
Ashtyn Davis PFF big board #33

https://youtu.be/-1DkaQQUjac
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 02:46 AM
Thanks.
Posted By: guard dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 02:49 AM
My statement wasn't meant as a shot at you. A lot of posters emphasize BPA all over the board. I also stated that given a run on Safeties I could understand taking him in round 2. I like him. But objectively he's not top 50.

I realize that different draft analysts will have him rated on their particular criteria.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 02:52 AM
I didn't take it as a shot, bro. It's cool. Just conversing.
Posted By: guard dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 03:12 AM
I'd like to have Davis on the Browns. Stopping the run is a greater importance to me. So I look to strengthen the IDL before addressing the secondary. Won't be long we'll see how it plays out.
Posted By: eotab Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 02:13 PM
Today is the first day that I saw Ashton Davis heading our way in the 2nd round. He did look good on film and has excellent Game day speed not just 40 speed in shorts.

As mentioned he had medical fall backs but one thing the combine does is a top to bottom investigation on them medically so we will have the info on that prior to the draft. Have we met with him in Video chat/or Skype ???

What I do know is Safety seems like the perfect position of need dropping to us at just the right time for our 2nd round pick and I expect to see us have a Left Tackle and a Safety with our two impact picks of 2020!

jmho
Posted By: mgh888 Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 02:36 PM
I don't know enough about the safeties we signed to know how big a need safety is ... and of the two I don't know if FS or SS is the greater concern.

That said - my preference for any secondary player is instincts over measurables ... nice to have both and I don't know which do and do not have either or both in this year's draft class. But I am always a little leary of track speed guys ... a mis-step on an initial read negates nearly all the benefit of a fast 40 time. The CB's and Safeties who have enough burst and speed to recover from those mis-steps are very few and far between. A wrong angle to an open field ball carrier is catastrophic (see Peppers when he was asked to play deep) and a missed tackle is the same.
Posted By: eotab Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 02:47 PM
There is enough athletic LB who fit physically more for a SS than LB or the many athletic Hybrid guys we saw in PEPPER and now in Murray from OK and others.

What I'm trying to spit out here is SS will be easier to fill than FS.

So if this kid Davis is a TRUE FS that should increase his value.

FS is considered or what you wish to get is one that fits the team value of Defensive backfield GENERAL who is intelligent in his film study and is THE GUY to make the calls on the field.

So again if this kid GRADES OUT to be a Field General then he is the guy and why I think McKinney from Alabama and Winfield from Minnesota, btw is he any relation to baseball great DAVE WINFIELD??? But they are considered to be Football intelligent to fit the position mentally as well as physically.

jmho
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 03:23 PM
brownie
Posted By: Hammer Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 03:38 PM
Not sure about him being related to Dave, but he is the son of Antoine Winfield Sr.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 05:00 PM
Quote:

What I'm trying to spit out here is SS will be easier to fill than FS.


Very true and I tried to bring that up in my OP.

There are a ton of guys who can play well in the box. A true FS who has great range, makes great reads, and can break on the ball is extremely hard to find.
Posted By: Dave Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 08:06 PM
I like to browse ProFootballReference.com and I was surprised to see that Eric Turner - maybe the best Browns' FS of all time - played SS his first two years in the league. He went to 2 Pro Bowls as a FS in the middle of his career, but then went back to SS in his last two years.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TurnEr00.htm

Not that its a common occurrence, but its at least possible to find a SS with physical skills to convert to FS. Also, as someone else posted recently, I'm surprised some of the larger, more physical CB's don't convert to FS in their later career.
Posted By: guard dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/07/20 08:14 PM
I like to get ahead of my mistakes. After my post yesterday ironically I saw several rankings rating Davis as a second-round selection.

I also agree with EO, that he is ideally suited to play FS which is a more rare skillset particularly in this draft. I also feel Joseph will man the SS this year and possibly is a long-term option at the position lessening but not eliminating the need to draft another SS prospect.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/08/20 12:17 AM
Yes, Joseph is a SS only. And I'm not that high on him in coverage. But, that's what you get w/a ton of SS types.
Posted By: drobs Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/08/20 08:02 PM
Myles Dorn seems intriguing - someone who can play both positions and is versatile would offer a lot of flexibility in scheme -

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/myles-dorn-has-pedigree-and-potential-to-be-nfl-starter

Great thread by the way.
Posted By: GratefulDawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/19/20 07:56 PM
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/19/20 11:07 PM
That was good. Thanks.

Although, he better correct ducking that head while tackling. I like how he gets low, but keep the head up.
Posted By: Rottweiller Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/19/20 11:44 PM
After reading a lot of posts I didnt see this guy mentioned anywhere. He is a really interesting case and maybe a huge sleeper.

Kenny Robinson, Jr. | S | West Virginia/XFL
Elevator Pitch
Robinson’s unconventional route to the NFL draft is unproven and makes him somewhat of a risk, but the talent is there for him to blow everyone’s expectations of him out of the water. He’s a rangy, athletic and intelligent safety with the potential to be a steal later in the draft.

Vitals
Height | 6-1

Weight | 202

College Bio Page

Career Stats

XFL Stats

Strengths
If you like safeties who fit that centerfielder mold, then Robinson is a prospect you should get to know.

Robinson has crazy good range and has the lateral quickness and hip fluidity to be a reliable defender covering in single-high formations. He is a quick processor who is able to read the eyes of quarterbacks and diagnose the play before it comes to fruition. Once he makes that read, he is aggressive and quick in charging to close in on the ball and make a play. He can dominate in underneath coverage, as that allows him to accelerate downhill and jump a receiver’s route. The St. Louis Battlehawks star has very good ball skills too, as he can track down the ball and make difficult adjustments to it.

In addition to his athleticism, Robinson also possesses very good length for the safety position. His height and his long arms give him value if ever placed into man coverage or jump-ball situations. Regardless of the level he plays at, he is a rock-solid producer: he had 7 interceptions in his two seasons at West Virginia, and he had two picks in the five games he played in the XFL before the season shut down due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). In a league that’s pass-heavy, a ball-hawking safety like Robinson comes at a premium, so there will likely be a team who takes a chance on him due to his high ceiling. He also can lower the boom as a tackler and isn’t afraid to deliver a powerful hit to a ball-carrier.

Weaknesses
What makes Robinson a unique case is that nobody has ever followed his exact route to the NFL before. This version of the XFL is still brand-new, and he is the only player who has left the college ranks to play in the league. While other draft prospect were participating in the Combine and practicing for their Pro Days, Robinson was playing in games and intercepting former NFL players like Matt McGloin and Cardale Jones. He hasn’t had the benefit of having his 2019-20 tape out there for as long as college players have, which has made him a bit of a sleeper in this year’s class.

On the field, Robinson is still a work in progress as a tackler. The diagnosing abilities are there, but he’s inconsistent in his effort and the angles he takes in pursuit as a run defender. When he’s facing a ball-carrier head-on, he’s a bit of a catch tackler who waits for the ball-carriers to come to him, instead of him going to chase a defender down. From an angle, his form isn’t all that great, as he relies too much on his arms as a tackler, and he doesn’t always play at full speed. His underneath instincts are still developing, and the communication of duties between him and his teammates at cornerback is still a bit of a work in progress.

Projection: Day 3
Gallery
Posted By: RedBaron Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/22/20 12:52 AM
Kenny is my favorite 6th round pick.

Worse thing that could happen is we cut him if his character becomes a concern, setting a precident that whether or not you are drafted does not matter once you're on the team.

Besides, what other guy is going to be available with his skill set?
Posted By: GratefulDawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 04:06 AM
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 09:29 AM
Sets up perfectly for us tomorrow
Posted By: PastorMarc Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 04:38 PM
Hopefully no safeties are drafted in the first nine picks today then we can take who we like the best like we did at LT smile
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 04:48 PM
I agree. I’m rooting for OL and WR to be selected early
Posted By: SuperBrown Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 06:30 PM
Xavier McKinney.
Posted By: mgh888 Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 07:23 PM
Originally Posted By: Dawgs4Life
I agree. I’m rooting for OL and WR to be selected early


There are some very good RB's to be had too - could see 1 or 2 going before our pick.
Posted By: bonefish Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 08:03 PM

That recovery in the endzone for the pick wow. Some play there.
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 08:37 PM
Good point
Posted By: Day of the Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 08:50 PM
Unless there is quite a run on Safeties the Browns should be able to get a really decent one if they choose to.

Ashtyon Davis is a very fast true free safety. Probably tghe best center-fielder of the bunch. While playing deep he has more int and pass break ups than allowed catches.

Jeremy Chinn is a very physical safety but probably more of a strong safety than a free safety. Can line up as a linebacker when needed. Could come in handy playing the Ravens

Antonie Winfield is also a very good safety. Smart and instinctive. Had injury issues but was healthy last year. Huge reason why Minnesota was so much better on defense last year. Probably more of a free safety.

Xavier McCinney a versatile safety that can play either free or strong. No as fast as the other safeties listed but is safe.

Grant Dilpit - Best cover safety in the draft. He is worthy of a trade up to get in my opinion. He is special. I do not see him there when we pick but at the same time Greedy fell to us last year so anything can happen.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 08:54 PM
j/c:

Okay, I asked this on another thread..........but, why isn't anyone mentioning Stone. Dude is excellent in coverage. What am I missing that no one is even talking about him on here?
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 08:56 PM
Btw----I don't want a SS. I want a true FS who can patrol the deep parts of the field. A dude w/range. Also, a guy who we can cover slot receivers when need be. Say no to SS types.
Posted By: OrangeHelmet Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 09:04 PM
I know this guy is projected to be available in round 3 but I doubt that is true —- I hope we grab him

#41 - Chinn S -- Safety prospect with compelling size, speed and athletic ability. He has man cover skills. Very willing and able as a tackler

BUT —- if we can get Ashtyn Davis then we could wait until round 3
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 09:26 PM
Yeah, getting Davis in round 3 would be great
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 09:34 PM
Originally Posted By: OrangeHelmet
I know this guy is projected to be available in round 3 but I doubt that is true —- I hope we grab him

#41 - Chinn S -- Safety prospect with compelling size, speed and athletic ability. He has man cover skills. Very willing and able as a tackler

BUT —- if we can get Ashtyn Davis then we could wait until round 3


Davis probably has the best chance at being avalible in the 3rd round, because of medical questions ... a victim perhaps of the CCP virus.

And he has the best range of the deep Safety's in the Draft at the expense of physical attributes for the position.
Posted By: WooferDawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 09:36 PM
The knock on Dilpit is that he misses a bunch of tackles.
Posted By: Jester Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 09:41 PM
Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
Btw----I don't want a SS. I want a true FS who can patrol the deep parts of the field. A dude w/range. Also, a guy who we can cover slot receivers when need be. Say no to SS types.


I would like one of each
Posted By: Jester Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 09:41 PM
Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
j/c:

Okay, I asked this on another thread..........but, why isn't anyone mentioning Stone. Dude is excellent in coverage. What am I missing that no one is even talking about him on here?


Help me out, what school does Stone go to?
Posted By: Pdawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 09:43 PM
Iowa. He’s projected as a ss
Posted By: waterdawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 09:46 PM
He avoids tackles , lol ... this kid takes himself out of the game a bunch of times for looks like really minor stuff. PASS
Posted By: Pdawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 09:46 PM
Analysis
By Lance Zierlein
NFL Analyst
Draft Projection
Round 7/Priority free agent
Overview
Stout but stubby split-safety prospect with excellent instincts and body control, but a concerning lack of length and functional speed. Stone's football IQ is obvious, as he's often triggering down on top of a route before the quarterback is even winding up. He plays with a sheriff's urgency on the backend but struggles to make an impact when he's not playing forward. He lacks a burst to chase or close in man coverage and he has trouble changing direction sharply as a downhill tackler. There are some athletic limitations, but his feel for the game could help him find a home.
Strengths
Above-average body control in everything he does
Plus awareness of route development from safety perch
Diligent getting receivers re-routed with bossy shove
Instincts allow for early breaks on throws
Stays light on his feet for transition with breaks
Eyes to quarterback as soon as he sees route break
Smooth eyes to process route combinations cleanly
Not much hesitation to pull the trigger in run support
Quick to find his pursuit angle in the alley
Weaknesses
Compact but stubby build with short arms
Inconsistent urgency to close red zone targets at times
Sees it, but lacks juice and length to make enough plays
Below average explosion off ground on jump balls
Long speed concerns will follow him to the league
Tightly bound with no more steering in his hips
Lack of length and lateral agility concern scouts as tackler
GRADE
8.0
The perfect prospect
7.3-7.5
Perennial All-Pro
7.0-7.1
Pro Bowl talent
6.7-6.8
Year 1 quality starter
6.5
Boom or bust prospect
6.3-6.4
Will be starter within first two seasons
6.1-6.2
Good backup who could become starter
6.0
Developmental traits-based prospect
5.8-5.9
Backup/special-teamer
5.5

Chance to make end of roster or practice squad
5.4
Priority free agent
5.0-5.1
Chance to be in an NFL training camp
NO GRADE
Likely needs time in developmental league

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/geno-stone?id=32195354-4f39-6630-4d73-2328fd2eb451
Posted By: guard dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 09:55 PM
J/C

Geno Stone, Iowa. The more I read about him the more it seemed that he was projected as a Strong Saftey. Don't know whether the Browns view him as such.

Free Saftey is the higher priority but another Strong for depth and development would be nice.

What I'm unsure of is how Woods will scheme his pass defense. That makes a difference who fits into our secondary.

Recently I was concerned about Delpit's tackling but as I watched more of his play my concerns decreased. He will need to clean up his tackling technique but he isn't reluctant to tackle. Based on tape I'd say he's the best FS prospect with McKinney as 1B. Then Davis.

I like Chinn a lot too. Because he has played some corner I think he could cover deep. I just think he has some box skills that might make evaluators question whether he is an FS.
Posted By: Pdawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 09:57 PM
I’ve seen him mocked as high as the 5th round. PFF seems to be higher on him than others.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 10:08 PM
Originally Posted By: Pdawg
Iowa. He’s projected as a ss


I posted this earlier, but this seems to suggest that Stone is a good fit at FS. It's from PFF.

Quote:
Quote:
Geno Stone's statistical projections are among the best in his class

By Eric Eager
Mar 25, 2020

Like his contemporary, Grant Delpit, Stone’s best year came in his sophomore campaign, when he earned an 88.4 overall PFF grade. Unlike Delpit, Stone did not regress significantly in 2019, earning an 83.4 overall PFF grade. His interceptions fell from four to one, but he broke up another three passes and allowed only 22 of 36 passes into his coverage to be completed, while earning four pressures and 19 stops.

Using our college-to-pro system, we will look at Stone’s projected performance during his rookie contract. This projection uses his play-by-play data from college, adjusts it for play- and opponent-level context and weighs more-recent data more than past data.

How Stone Projects as a Coverage Player

Stone is projected to be the biggest playmaker in this safety class, edging out Delpit in terms of percentage of primary coverage snaps where he earns an interception or pass break up:

Geno Stone’s projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate during the first five years of his NFL career in the context-free environment.

Stone’s context-free projection gives him comps like Earl Thomas and Justin Simmons in coverage, which is great company to have. Context matters, though, and the majority of Stone’s snaps came deep (521 of 838) his final season as a Hawkeye. Adjusting for this:

Geno Stone’s projected completion percentage allowed and play maker rate during the first five years of his NFL career in an environment where 20 percent of his snaps are in the box, 20 percent in the slot and 60 percent deep.

Stone’s ability as a playmaker remains when we project him as a predominantly free safety, as do his impressive statistical comps.

How Stone Projects as a Run Defender

We don’t have much in the way of data for Stone as a pass rusher, since he did so on just seven snaps at Iowa (earning a pressure on five of those snaps). However, he did have almost 600 snaps of run defense, and those snaps put him in the middle of the class in terms of projected run-stop percentage or projected percentage of snaps earning a positively graded play designation from us at PFF.

His comps as a run defender are deep players like Earl Thomas and Ha Ha Clinton Dix, as well as more versatile guys like Adrian Amos and Will Hill, which is roughly in the middle of the pack in his class and above average relative to rookie-deal free safeties in the NFL. Run defense is not as important as other aspects of football, and thus while Stone is not elite in that area, his potential as a coverage player along with this projection as a defender in the run game is a good combination. Any team with a need at deep safety, or just looking to play more safeties in a modern defense that deploys three or more, will be getting a good one in the former Iowa standout.

Geno Stone’s projected run stop rate and positively graded play rate in the run game during the first five years of his NFL career in an environment where 20 percent of his snaps are in the box, 20 percent in the slot and 60 percent deep.
Posted By: Jester Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 10:16 PM
Thanks for the input guys.

I am still a fan of Julian Blackmon S Utah
6'0, 187#

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/julian-blackmon?id=3219424c-4128-3027-fdc4-2c27128f84f7
Blackmon was a three-star recruit from Utah even though he broke his hand during his senior year, which cut down the scholarship offers. Signing on with his home-state school proved a wise move for both parties. Blackmon played safety in 2019, garnering second-team Associated Press All-American and first-team All-Pac-12 honors by starting 13 games, collecting 60 tackles, four for loss, a team-high four interceptions, four pass breakups, and two forced fumbles. His '19 campaign came to an end when he suffered a non-contact injury in the Pac-12 title game. He earned second-team All-Pac-12 accolades at cornerback as a sophomore and junior, starting all 27 games. Blackmon led the Utes with four interceptions in 2017 while also posting 48 tackles and six pass breakups. The following season, he again posted 48 stops, four for loss, an interception, and a team-high 10 pass breakups. Blackmon played in nine games as a reserve his true freshman season, making two tackles.


https://www.nfl.com/prospects/julian%20-blackmon?id=3219424c-4128-3027-fdc4-2c27128f84f7

Strengths
Has grown into man-sized frame
Good combination of size and speed
Plays with rugged demeanor when it's time
Disciplined reading man cover keys against play-action
Starting cornerback experience with ability to check tight ends
Adequate pattern recognition underneath
Has nine interceptions in three years
Factors favorably when supporting versus quick game
Plays through blockers in space
Quick to close distance and aggressive hitter in run support
Wipe-out talent when running the alleys

Weaknesses
Coverage issues in 2018 forced him to safety
Recovery speed is just average
Struggles with balance in sudden transitions
Indecision stalls opportunities for early jumps from high zone
May not have instincts for desired range over the top
Loses deep contain in scramble situations too often
Takes suspect angles and tracking needs work as high safety
Had a very poor game against USC
Suffered knee injury in December
Posted By: Bull_Dawg Re: Drafting a Free Safety - 04/24/20 10:23 PM
Originally Posted By: Versatile Dog
j/c:

Okay, I asked this on another thread..........but, why isn't anyone mentioning Stone. Dude is excellent in coverage. What am I missing that no one is even talking about him on here?


Sub-30" inch arms and not overly athletic. Most projections I've seen have him late round or PFA.

His instincts are good, but he's limited physically/athletically.
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