I don't have a very good feel about this game because I haven't watched much of any of Indy's games. Thus, I don't feel as confident about some of the matchups as normal. But, I like these kind of threads and figured I would get the discussion started.
When the Browns have the ball: The Colts D has been very good, especially against the run. They should provide a true test for our magnificent run game. I think they have came up w/some turnovers and even have a pick 6 or two. It should be noted that they haven't played a good offense yet. Gardner Minshew lit them up late in the game and gave Indy their only loss. I do think that we are going to have to contain their DL as Buckner and Houston are playing very well. Baker will need to take care of the ball again. I do think we can exploit Rhodes w/double moves. He is a very aggressive player and really struggled his last two years in Minnesota. He's physical, but is prone to give up the big play. I could see OBJ putting a double move on Rhodes and blowing by him for an easy TD.
When Indy has the ball: I think the Colts have a good OL, but if the Browns can pressure Rivers, he will turn it over. He is not the same qb that he was 3-4 years ago. His game has really digressed. He has thrown a lot of picks in the last couple of years and gets shook when rushed hard. Taylor and Himes might be able to run on us and catch short passes. Watch out for their TEs.
I think the Colts are facing some injury issues. Hooker was lost for the year and key players like Okereke, Constanzo, and Leonard are questionable. Guys like Mack, Pittman, and Campbell are out.
The Colts are favored by 2.5. I don't really get that line. I think the Browns should win this game outright.
Have they totally turned over their Oline since Luck retired? I mean, it was their awful Oline that broke him, but all of a sudden their Oline is a strength? Honest question, as I don't know.
I still say that if you look at the opponents the Colts have played, that force may not be as powerful as it's showing to be on paper right now. The great Gardner Minshew posted 27 points against them. Their other opponents aren't known for a high powered offense.
If that line holds, I’ll probably go Colts w/the under. I think it’s gonna be a hard game to win ... for both teams
Will you at any point have confidence in the Browns, ever?
Browns should win this game going away.
Milk is right about bettors. Last year bettors got burned by the Browns for the last time. This is a party they will happily be late to, not early.
People also keep forgetting that while handicappers are really good, the lines are developed to create equal action on both sides. They don't set the lines at the Colts -2.5 because they think the Colts are the better team. They set the line at -2.5 because they believe an equal number of people will bet the Colts and the Browns at that line. A huge part of his week's line is people are not going to believe in the Browns until they do it over a long haul. And most smart fans know there is a possibility Baker will need to win this and bettors need to see that as well.
I personally think Indy's D is overrated and the Browns could win this pretty handily.
If that line holds, I’ll probably go Colts w/the under. I think it’s gonna be a hard game to win ... for both teams
Will you at any point have confidence in the Browns, ever?
Browns should win this game going away.
Milk is right about bettors. Last year bettors got burned by the Browns for the last time. This is a party they will happily be late to, not early.
People also keep forgetting that while handicappers are really good, the lines are developed to create equal action on both sides. They don't set the lines at the Colts -2.5 because they think the Colts are the better team. They set the line at -2.5 because they believe an equal number of people will bet the Colts and the Browns at that line. A huge part of his week's line is people are not going to believe in the Browns until they do it over a long haul. And most smart fans know there is a possibility Baker will need to win this and bettors need to see that as well.
I personally think Indy's D is overrated and the Browns could win this pretty handily.
This really doesn’t belong here -sorry, vers - but I’ve been wondering: if we win we’re 4-1. When’s the last time we were 4-1?
I tried to research it (honest!) but couldn’t find the answer.
Late 80s?
1994... We actually started 6-1. We finished 11-5. I was at the Wild Card game when we defeated the Patriots 20-13. We were all so excited because we knew there was no way in hell the Steelers could beat us three times in one year. We were wrong, they beat us the next week in Pittsburgh - by 20 points.
Have they totally turned over their Oline since Luck retired? I mean, it was their awful Oline that broke him, but all of a sudden their Oline is a strength? Honest question, as I don't know.
The linchpin of the Colts OL is LG Quentin Nelson. The Colts drafted him in 2018 with the #6 overall pick. While other teams were drafting Mayfield, Barkley, Darnold, Ward, B Chubb, the Colts drafted a GUARD. And so far, that was the best pick of that draft, at least the top 10. From this article,
"At left guard, Quenton Nelson is among the best guards in the league and is already making his mark as one of the top overall players in the NFL after two outstanding seasons to start his career. Nelson had the No. 2 run-blocking grade and the No. 7 pass-blocking grade in 2019, as his combination of power, quickness and technique have him on a Hall-of-Fame path despite entering just his third NFL season."
Now that may be hyperbole, but there is little doubt that, to date, Nelson is the heart and soul of one of the best OL in the game. (LT Castonzo was a 1st rd pick in 2011, and C Kelly was a 1st rd pick in 2016.)
Although home field is not the advantage as normal home games. It is still home in your own bed.
The Colts are not an easy evaluation. When looking at their offensive roster; They don't seem scary. I respect the veteran Rivers but he is slipping.
On paper they have the defensive stats. But the competition is suspect.
In the end we have more play makers on both sides of the ball.
There are no gimme games in the NFL. No matter who you play the goal is to execute and not shoot yourself.
If we can continue to play as we have the last 3 games. We should win.
Offense: Stay the course. Feature the run with motion. Let the horses plow. Strike with the pass when the play is there. Don't force throw. Use the whole field and all receivers.
Hunt should carry the load. I expect him to have a big game.
Baker needs to build on what he has been doing. Let the game come to him.
Defense: All about constant pressure on Rivers. He does not move well but has a quick release. His game is all about timing. Make him move. Play physical on their receivers. Jam them. Disrupt their timing. Hilton is their go too. Try to take him away with Ward.
When you win the turnover game it increases you odds to win big time.
Who is the Colts RT? Maybe the game will come down to a great play by Garret? Just a thought that popped into my head when I read your post. I had this game pegged as winnable pre-season. Our offense has been better than expected - no kidding huh? Anyone figure we'd pop 49 points up on the board versus Dallas - The D has been even worse than I thought with the exception of popping big, game changing plays.
We're probably going to need Baker to be accurate and turnover free. We'll need low penalty totals. And no misses from Parkey if we struggle to get it into the end zone.
Yeah, just looked him up, Mike Glowinski; drafted by SEA in '15. Started '17 at RT, but lost the job and was waived after the season. Colts picked him up and he got the starting job via injury.
I am a fan of using pre-snap motion. I think using it helps Baker. I'll tell you why. When you bring a guy in motion, the defender lined-up over that player will do one of a few things. To keep it simple, if the defender follows the motion man across the formation, you know that they are in man. If he does not follow, that tells you they are in some sort of zone at least one side of the field. You can tell other things by how the guy either drops or stays close to the LOS. I brought this up when Throw asked me about one of Baker's picks earlier this year. The guy who picked it did not follow the motion man across the formation, thus making it a rather easy read.
Anyway...………...I think it is a good idea for Stefanski to use a lot of motion. It should help make things a bit easier for Baker.
I'll especially enjoy this game because my son played against Rivers in high school. I wondered why that "lineman" was throwing to receivers in the pre-game, lol
This really doesn’t belong here -sorry, vers - but I’ve been wondering: if we win we’re 4-1. When’s the last time we were 4-1?
I tried to research it (honest!) but couldn’t find the answer.
Late 80s?
1994... We actually started 6-1. We finished 11-5. I was at the Wild Card game when we defeated the Patriots 20-13. We were all so excited because we knew there was no way in hell the Steelers could beat us three times in one year. We were wrong, they beat us the next week in Pittsburgh - by 20 points.
Good Grief golly golly gee!!! You think, I'd chose such a STUPID SCREEN NAME for 25 years, and it stuck, In those ^3 steeler losses, the closest chance the Browns had to win was the earliest season matchup, and the best momentum came from Throwing deep on their secondary, With those 3 games in mind, I came up with this screen name to see how this board works, in 1995-98ish,
and later decided It'll keep the point, to not change my screen name.
^^^ Those 3 Steeler losses in 1994, are the reason I use this screen name, as a reminder, they needed a reminder in the playoff loss.
The colts not only have the top rated defensive line in the nfl but also tge top rated offensive line in the NFL. The bears have a very good pass rush and only managed one sack. So far they have only surrendered 4 sacks. Also, thier secondary is ranked the best in the NFL. This ons is going to be tough, really tough.
Ind (20) Vs Jax (27) Jax Rushed 23 times For 91 yds (3.95) (5 for 19 by Minshew) 14 of those including 3 for 19 by Minshew were in the 1st half. Jax down by 3 at the half, tied end of 3rd
Min (11) vs Ind (28) Min rushed 18 times for 80 yds (4.44) 10 for 43 1st half Min Down by 12 at the half and 15 at end of 3rd qtr
NYJ (7) vs Ind (36) NYJ rushed 29 times for 109 yds (3.75) (5 for 20 by Darnold) 17 for 69 1st half (3 for 10 by Darnold) NYJ Down by 10 at the half, 24 end of 3rd
Ind (19) vs Chi (11) Chi rushed 16 for 28yds (1.75) (2 for -1 by Foles) 11 for 17 1st half (2 for -1 by Foles) Chi down 10 at the half, 13 end of 3rd, 16 with just under 4 min left
Seems their opponents are going away from the run in the second half, even Jax who was not behind or out of the game).
Aside from Chicago, seems teams have run decently on them, then gave up the run.
I'll especially enjoy this game because my son played against Rivers in high school. I wondered why that "lineman" was throwing to receivers in the pre-game, lol
When he was in San Diego I played texas holdem with him. He just wanted to bluff everyone all night with 2 7 offsuit lol.
Just adding this, Braden Smith is their RT (I think he was drafted the same year they took LG Nelson early) He's a good-very good RT, I recall he had a superb rookie year with him...Weakness on their Oline is RG, obviously IF LT Castonzo doesn't play...LT will be worrisome for them as well....C Ryan Kelly is underrated imho he's tough...Nelson is the best LG in the league.
Luckily they are missing their weapons with Paris and Pittman are out...Hilton and Pascal are their tops, and last weak Marcus Johnson got called up and played well...TE Doyle was hurt to start the season...But their TE core is pretty deep (Doyle, Trey Burton, and Mo Allie)
RB core is nice...We all know Jonathan Taylor, strong kid-runs really hard....Hines is used a lot as their pass back, and he is smooth as well....Wilkins gets a few looks, he is tiny but has some gear(s) to him...That's a nice core despite Marlon Mack being on IR.
We obviously have to force QB Rivers into mistakes...as he is not mobile, and is a gun slinger...Pressure is a must imho, and odd looks.
Their D is talented...Everyone says how strong they are...I don't see that...I see how quick and sound they are...They set wide, which is different but they steer their gaps flawlessly.
Buckner looks so good in there, Autry is tough with a high motor...I know the past couple years they've been drafting talent here (Lewis and Banogu) whom are their "wave" players as of now....They have a nice rotation. I won't lie, I don't know their Nose tackle at all.
LBs are sound and quick to get downhill...Remember when a lot of us questioned the Leonard pick? Man I was wrong there...He is a phenom, be huge is he is out...But I think he plays.
I think we need to get the safeties off, trickery or off looks...as they are both super young (Blackmon is a rookie, and Khari Willis was a rookie last year) But they seem to doing a great job back there. Rhodes and TJ Carrie seem to be playing well (after both were considered poor last year) Ya-Sin seems to be coming along for them.
Should be a good game, however what scares me most....our defense is just flat out awful...I just see them being able to stop us a lot more than we can dream of stopping them (even though they don't have a flying offense, I just see our D giving room for easy points)
I'm not worried about Cleveland's offense. But the shoddy defense has me worried. They need to do MUCH better if the team is going to contend this year.
-Allowed 6th most points in the league (126 vs. Indy's league-best 56) -Allowed 3rd most passing yards in the league (1242 vs. Indy's league-best 637) -Allowed 8th most yards/game in the league (310.5 vs. Indy's league-best 236.2)
Cleveland's defensive strengths have been against the run and takeaways. They've been 5th best against the run with 367 yards vs. Indy's 4th best of 308 yards. They lead the league with 2.5 takeaways/game vs. Indy's third best of 1.8 takeaways/game. Cleveland also leads the league in turnover differential with +6 while Indy is third with +4.
Don't forget that Cleveland's stats are against opponents with a combined record of 6-9-1 with half of those wins from the Ravens alone and the others from 1-win teams. Not really beacons of excellence for those saying Indy hasn't had great competition against their opponents with a combined record of 6-11. We can't keep relying on the Browns offense to score 30+ points every game. It's only a matter of time until the Browns offense will have a bad game and need to rely on the defense to carry them to a win. The defense has to get its act together very soon.
After losing their 1st game to Jacksonville (who have since not won another game), Indy beat Chicago (who have otherwise somehow, inexplicably not lost a game).
Not sure how much credit I can give them for the Jets game, but much like Cincinnati started playing real football after we beat them, the Vikings started playing after the Colts beat them.
Not sure how much credit I can give us for beating Washington either, so this game will give both teams' fan bases a much better idea of whether their team is playoff ready in my opinion.
Excluding fans of the Browns and Colts, I think a lot of followers are a bit skeptical of both teams due their schedules, last year's disappointing records, and that both qbs threw a ton of picks last year.
Right or wrong, I think the national perception will be that the winner will started to be taken seriously and the loser will be receive the "they are who we thought they were" label.
It's a "swing" game for both teams when it comes to national respect.
Not saying the loser can't or won't make the playoffs, just that this game should go a long way to establishing the team that does win (confidence wise). Then again, if the media starts taking Cleveland more seriously, we'll probably lose the rest of our games.
I'll buy most of that, especially since it's early in the season... 4-1 raises eyebrows, 3-2 means, well, just about average.
With that said, it will depend on what kind of win it is. If both teams go out and play well and the game is decided late, it may not taint the view of the loser much.
The key is the defense, the Browns defense, if the Browns defense can make plays, get turnovers, I mean Phillip Rivers throws turnovers too,
if the Browns defense and team, forces the colts into must pass situations, and then intercepts those passes, that would be a good time for the Browns.
I'm not sure what kind of running attacks the Colts have faced so far, maybe I'll look into it.
A lot of the argument of not facing good teams, doesn't hold much water with me in week 5, because in 4 games, everyone you faced is good or bad based 25% with how they played the day you were playing them, so if you are a good team and win, then 25% of all of your opponents through 4 weeks were teams that lost to you that day.
Excluding fans of the Browns and Colts, I think a lot of followers are a bit skeptical of both teams due their schedules, last year's disappointing records, and that both qbs threw a ton of picks last year.
Right or wrong, I think the national perception will be that the winner will started to be taken seriously and the loser will be receive the "they are who we thought they were" label.
It's a "swing" game for both teams when it comes to national respect.
This is 100% spot on except for...
I will say all the talking heads pregame are going on and on and on about how Indy is for real and the Browns are only 3-1 because of their work schedule. Meanwhile, no mention of Indy's schedule.
Please, please Browns...I hope you are listening and using this as motivation. Go and take the victory. Baker, have the light switch come on and put on a show.
Let's go. Sick of losing. Keep reading "oh we'll probably lose at least one of the next two if not both". Screw that. Win them both. Indy is beatable. Pitt is beatable. Go and win. Tired of being losers. And this fanbase has the biggest loser mentality. I get it. It's ingrained in us. But screw that. Let's make sure times are changing.
We're going against a number one defense with the unfortunate truth that their #1 ranking is hung on the backs of teams (Jags, Jets, Vikes, & Bears) middle of the pack to bottom third in rushing and points scored, while we are #1 in rushing and #4 in points scored. I'm not saying the Colt's D isn't good, just that there are mitigating factors. That D may not look as good 7:30 Sunday if our run game gets going and crisp, confident Baker shows up. I do wish Chubb could play, but Hunt will have to carry the load. He's pretty damn good at it. The Colts haven't yet faced a run game like ours.
I'll be the first to admit after the opening game I was certain it was SSDY, but I'm starting to believe. I see discipline, execution, and success. I also see Stafanski having success scheming against other teams, exploiting weaknesses and tempering strengths. Right now, he has the offense playing at a high level. I expect a lot of the FB, TEs and OBJ. Landry is always involved. I don't know much about the Colts secondary, but I'm looking forward to seeing Rashad and getting a look at DPJ at WR.
In the past, Rivers has carved us up. He has a 5-2 record against us. But in the past we didn't have Myles Garrett. Or an offense. Or a coach. Or very much talent. Or the will to win. Or very much of anything. All that has changed. Rivers is a crafty vet, but he's only scoring middle of the pack. The best defense against him is keep him off the field. Second best is disrupt him as much as possible. We are well suited to do both. The reality is, our high powered offense doesn't have to score staggering numbers. It just needs to outscore Rivers. Very doable, IMO.
I recognize this as a pivotal game. A win would be an excellent momentum builder going into the games against pitt, cincy, and the Raiders. I also believe we need to win games like this if we are to be taken seriously as contenders. I think it's possible. I didn't a few weeks ago, but I do now. That's a good feeling. Browns by ten.
I just have to say I think the deciding factor will be Phillip Rivers. He's completing 72% of his passes and has the ability to pick a secondary apart. We have given up a lot in the passing game against lesser QB's.
I just have to say I think the deciding factor will be Phillip Rivers. He's completing 72% of his passes and has the ability to pick a secondary apart. We have given up a lot in the passing game against lesser QB's.
This is true, we have to force him to turn that ball over today.
Tonight against a pretty good D we will find out if our O is really that good.
I think they are,
The Browns Defense is going to have to win this game.
Cowher and Esiason-I believe it was him, Just picked the Browns to win on pregame.
If you asked me to pick this game, I'm picking the Colts to win, and hoping I'm wrong.
Just...
Browns Defense from 3 or 3 and a half years ago, ... Plus, if the Browns were regularly getting the ball to 3 WR's ... they're not even getting it to 2.
I hope I'm wrong.
My brain can't let my heart overlook the points per allowed by both defenses, 14 Colts, 31 Browns and think all of a sudden... ...
Browns Run defense = a key to this game, Believe that!
I just have to say I think the deciding factor will be Phillip Rivers. He's completing 72% of his passes and has the ability to pick a secondary apart. We have given up a lot in the passing game against lesser QB's.
This is true, we have to force him to turn that ball over today.
That percentage is a little inflated, it's been mostly a short passing game as his arm strength has deterioated. With that said, I just hope we're tackling well and hold them to FG's.
One of two things is going to happen in the Browns game today.
The Browns are going to run all over the Colts, and get them in a shoot out, from on the Ground, A boot out, so to speak, and the Colts won't be able to keep up.
