DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season 2018 NFL Draft Browns must avoid QB tunnel vision with #1 overall pick

Introduction

Contrary to popular belief, a 1st rd so called franchise QB is NOT required to win or even win a Super Bowl in the NFL. Russel Wilson, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Brad Johnson are all examples of later rd picks at QB who have won Super Bowls, in the case of tom Brady he was a 6th rd pick who may end up going down as the greatest ever. Sure, drafting a 1st Rd Qb should increase your chances of finding a good one(in theory), its no guarantee.

With that in mind, this post is going to talk about one thing that is very important for the Browns, REACHING.

Reaching

What is reaching exactly?

"Reaching is when you draft a player based on a position of need or desperation while passing on more better talented players of other positions."

This is very important because the Browns drafts since our return are FULL of reaches. Reaching in the draft is the sole reason why we are where we are today.

Lets look at the Browns past drafts shall we?

1999- Tim Couch - didn't work out, but not a reach
2000 - Courtney Brown - BPA in 2000 not a reach
2001 - Gerrard Warren - Reach
2002 William Green - Reach
2003 - Jeff Faine - Pro Bowler, not retained
2004 - Kellen Winslow II - Reach(we traded up for him to boot, injury and off field issues)
2005 - Braylon Edwards - Average - had one Pro Bowl year, was mediocre otherwise, later traded.
2006 - Kamerion wimbley - Reach
2007 - Joe Thomas - Best pick since return, HOF, Pro Bowler
2007 - Brady Quinn - Reach (we traded up for him too)
2008 - No pick
2009 - Alex Mack - Solid Pick, Pro Bowler, Not retained.
2010 - Joe Haden - Ok Pick, two Pro Bowls
2011 - Phil Taylor - So-so pick, almost a reach but not quite
2012 - Trent Richardson - Reach
2012 - Brandon Weeden - Reach
2013 - Barkevious Mingo - Reach
2014 - Justin Gilbert - Reach
2014 - Johnny Manziel - Total Reach
2015 Cam Erving - Reach
2015 Danny Shelton - Decent
2016 Corey Coleman - Reach
2017 - Myles Garret - BPA
2017 - Jabrill Peppers - Reach
2017 - David Njoku - Reach


As you can see, the majority of our draft picks since our return have been reaches, and we have passed on superior talent at other positions like Adrian Peterson, Tomlinson and Ben Rothlisberger for example for reaches at other positions instead of doing the simple thing and taking BPA (Which is what the Steelers did when Rothlisberger fell in their laps in the 2004 draft)

The pick of Myles Garrett in the 2017 NFL Draft was the 1st time since 1999 and 2000 that Browns did not reach with their high 1st rd picks.

How do we avoid reaching in 2018 and beyond?

We look no farther then our vaunted neighbors and rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers. From 1986-2003 the Steelers never drafted a single QB in the 1st Rd of the NFL draft and remained HIGHLY competitive, even reaching the Super Bowl by doing nothing other then picking the BPA regardless of position that was on the board in their draft slot.

John Rienstra G Temple
Rod Woodson† DB Purdue
Aaron Jones DE Eastern Kentucky
Tim Worley RB Georgia
Tom Ricketts OT Pittsburgh
Eric Green TE Liberty
Huey Richardson DE Florida
Leon Searcy OT Miami
Deon Figures DB Colorado
Charles Johnson WR Colorado
Mark Bruener TE Washington
Jamain Stephens OT North Carolina A&T
Chad Scott DB Maryland
Alan Faneca G LSU
Troy Edwards WR Louisiana Tech
Plaxico Burress WR Michigan State
Casey Hampton DT Texas [l]
Kendall Simmons G Auburn
Troy Polamalu DB USC

As you cna see the Steelers stayed disciplined and took BPA regardless of position on their draft board year after year and kept adding talent while still being competitive.

The Steelers went on to have 11 winning seasons and 9 playoff appearances from 1986 to 2003(before we handed them Rothlisberger on a platter by reaching for Winslow)

What does this mean to the Browns in 2018 and beyond?

It means The Browns organization and its fans can NOT get tunnel vision and can not get blinded by the need for a QB and go back to reaching the NFL draft. We can't afford to do this. Its the reason we are staring 0-16 in the face right now.

The Browns need to see who ends up being the consensus #1 player in the entire draft (that will likely end up being Saquon Barkley barring a disaster) and thats who they should turn in the card for at the #1 pick if they are not going to trade down.

Barkley is just mega talented, if he fails in his Bowl game, in Combine stuff, etc other guys may rise up the charts, other players may end up proving themselves better, and whatever the case may be the Browns MUST choose the most talented player on the board regardless of what position he plays, if the guy ends up being a cornerback, or a Defensive Lineman, or whatever the case may be, so be it that is who they MUST pick.

We have to stop passing on superior talent just because we need a QB. I get it, i'd love to have an Andrew Luck, or a Peyton Manning on the Browns, but your not going to get him by reaching, We need to focus on being competitive first, and we do that by taking the most talented players we can, that's how you get better as a team.

For example Rosen is listed as the 6th best player in the entire draft by most draft experts, taking him with the 1st overall pick just because we need a Qb is a HUGE REACH...it could set us back for years...same can said of Darnold...we need to see who ends up being the concensus best player in the draft, and thats who we should take #1 overall.

If you want to drag this team out of the quagmire its in, then you need to stay disciplined and take BPA draft after draft until you have a good pool of talent which the Browns sorely lack. During this time you try to develop a QB while stockpiling talent, we would eventually get the right time to take a QB with a comparable roster of talent to be successful.

My biggest fear is the 2018 NFL Draft puts the Browns back into bad habits of reaching, and if we reach again, chances are we won't have a chance in hell of being competitive for another 6-10 years, and we are going to pass on far more talented players at other positions, guys that will end up in the Hall of Fame while we flame out on another QB prospect we will have no patience to develop.

this draft scares me more then anything because I can see the fan base, the owner, and the news media pressuring Dorsey and the Browns new Front Office into reaching, and this amount of draft picks is the 1st time in a long time I have felt that maybe the Browns were finally doing it right by taking BPA, and stocking the roster with talent, and now that may end up getting derailed.

The Steelers have showed us what we need to do for years. We need to stop reaching in the draft, have some patience, try and develop Kizer or another QB and take the BPA with that top pick whomever that ends up being...tunnel vision on a QB and reaching is just going to keep us in the basement of the division much longer then we need to be and prolong the agony of losing for much longer then need be.

We need to take BPA at #1, regardless if we have a QB need or not. We need talent, adding more talent makes everything including getting a QB to be successful much easier long term. If we reach, you can forget about winning for another 4-7 years...we need to be careful...it makes me sick to my stomach to think we are going to defy logic and pass on superior talented players all because the fanbase, the media, and the owner wants a QB...players...Imagine the Browns record with years of a healthy Adrian Peterson...or Tomlinson...that changes the entire trajectory of this franchise....

I had to get this out of my system. I sincerely hope the Browns have learned from their past mistakes and stick to the plan of taking BPA because if not...its doubtful we see another winning season for a longtime...you cna't pass on superior talented players all the time for needs with reach picks and expect to be successful...it doesn't work that way...talent is all that matters in the NFL and teams with a lot of it also have great QB's...

This is complete and total, something I disagree with.

You only like 2 picks the Browns have made,

Danny Shelton, and Alex Mack.

And then you like Myles Garrett.

1. The Browns ain't the steelers, you can't make the comparision. ( The Browns don't get the Browns on their schedule twice a year,) (and the Steelers had Roethlisburger for 10 of the last many years.) Probably a hall of famer.

2. "Browns must avoid". Browns don't have to "must" do anything, they can do whatever they want.

3. Myles Garrett, Browns already followed your posts line of thinking as early as this past April, and look at the results.

4. A quick glance appears you want Saquan Barkley.
I think he runs to tall, and too straight ahead no cuts or elusiveness, in the NFL, I think he'll bring poor results. It's what I think.

Good Luck Browns, !!!

They passed on Deshaun Watson last year, and every quarterback in the draft,
Then they cried when somebody stole some other quarterback from them when they had a 2nd, 1st round pick.

Hey guess what, the Browns are in the same situation this year.
They are going to have the Texans pick at #4,5, or 6 overall.

That fact alone, 2 years in a row, goes against the point of your thread title,
It puts the Browns in a unique, (actually twice unique), and unusual position to ignore the point of the thread title altogether.

And That's why it's complete and total something I disagree with.

Go Browns! Go get whomever!

The best player available just happens to be a quarterback.
The teams biggest problem is also a quarterback.

The team owner said upon hiring the new team GM, that he needs to focus on getting the quarterback position resolved.

This is 1st grade in front of you, don't overthink it.

Look at your list.

We've been through 20 years of heck, and the only time on your list the Browns grabbed a quarterback with the first time they had a draft pick was Tim Couch.

Who was around for 3, or 4 years until an elbow injury.

Almost no other Browns Qb has been the starter for 3 or 4 years. Edit: (In that time frame)

If Anything, the only tunnel vision the Browns have consistently followed, is to not take a Qb, with the pick, the first time they picked in any draft, except for Couch.

That is one piece of work that I don’t agree with. What did the Steelers do in the time frame given. Nada zip neyt. What did they do in 2004? Big Ben. Obvious they did better after Ben arrived. The picks prior to Ben were solid and that helped as well.

You always go after the best player available that fits a need.

No doubt the Browns have had miserable pathetic drafts. Most that follow the draft could have done better than the team. Weeden and Manziel were mind numbing picks at their spots.

I think that the QB is the number one two and 3 need. The rest of the issues are associated a very young team.

strictly talking in terms of a PR move, IMO there's no way we pass on a QB at 1 ... whether that's via trade back or drafting another position

That long winded post is going to get torn apart.

I'd totally agree as I think most would that if this QB Class was littered with Lockers, Gabberts and Ponders, of course you don't REACH.

But it's NOT. IF either or both of Rosen and Darnold come out, there's TWO highly rated QB's staring us in the face.

It's not only Stupid to pass on them when we're in the position we're in at QB, it's also IRRESPONSIBLE, and to pass on them for a RB is flat out IGNORANCE.

If by some miracle, we land Cousins, we BEST be Selling the #1 pick because Rosen and Darnold are going 1-2 in this draft. You can about BANK on that one.

And neither is a So-Called REACH.

Now, if Jackson or Mayfield is taken #1? Well that team is REACHING for the MOON.

I'm not sure you realize we will have the 4th or 5th pick also. And DON'T tell me take the QB there. They WILL NOT BE THERE.

Guess who WILL be there at 4 or 5? One of the Top 2 or 3 players in the ENTIRE draft. Why? Because the 2 QB's are going 1-2.

Sheesh. 4 MONTHS of this BS to go.

Well done. You put work in to that. I might disagree to an extent.

I don't know if it can be called reaching is you take a guy 4-5 slots early. Not to mention you assume all boards are the same.

Your position does have some merit this year because we can follow up the #1 OAP with a pick at maybe 5. What QBs might be left at #5?

You have to weight the options.

My personal feeling is we can pass on the back with the 1st pick because it is a deep back class. One of the best ever. We can get a heck of a back in the 2nd round. Georgia has 2 that will be very good pro's.

My thinking is take the QB then follow up with a top safety. Neither of the safeties would be considered a big reach at 5.

The word is Rosen wants the Giants and the Giants want him. It is also noted we may not want Rosen. Maybe we can scare the Giants in to trading up one slot? I would make the cost attractive enough to make them think about it...

Steelers had a franchise qb during those drafts... you keep drafting a qb until you find one... you can't wIn without a qb

To be fair, Roethlisberger joined an incredible team. He played pretty poor yet they still went 15-1 largely due to the nine pro-bowlers that the team boasted. Of those pro-bowlers, three were offensive linemen, one was a receiver and one was a running back.

Their team rushed for 2,321 yards (Not including Roethlisberger) and 15 touchdowns. He was throwing to Hines Ward, Antwaan Randel El and Plaxico Burress. Their defense boasted the large part of what would become on of the most fearsome dynasties in modern NFL history - James Farrior, Joey Porter, Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Ike Taylor.

No doubt Roethlisberger has been an incredible selection for them, but they dropped him on an incredible team which undoubtedly facilitated the success he's had. He only needed to throw 295 passes as a rookie and still only had 17 touchdowns to 11 interceptions - not exactly a 15-1 worthy passing level.

Why is it a reach to pick Jackson or mayfield at one?

They had better careers so far than Rosen or darnold.

Lamar also played in a tougher conference. The argument could be made for mayfield as well playing in the big 12.

I swear to god, posters always fall in love with QBs who fit their stereotypical image of what a QB is supposed to look like.

Wish y’all would fall in love with actual results.

Actual results are for losers.

/purple

Trying not to get to involved in the QB battles .. As an Old , Old , Old fan I have come to realize just how hard it is to evaluate today's College players .. So few University's run any thing close to a pro set .. Folks say that Rosen is more NFL ready to day ; will that make him the best ( in the long run ) in his Class ? How can anyone tell what Allen or Lamar might be in the NFL ??

It has come to the point where even Offensive Line Coaches complain about the young men coming into the NFL !

Draft is more of a crap shoot today than it was 20 years ago

Not really. The Pac 12 has far better passing defenses than the Big 12 and a fair amount more of NFL prospects in those positions. The Big 12's best pass defenders are Deshon Elliot (1st or 2nd rounder) and Holton Hill (3rd+ rounder) and they both play for Texas, a team Darnold lit up.

The Pac 12 has Justin Reid (1st or 2nd rounder), Iman Marshall (3rd rounder), Isiah Oliver (2nd rounder), and Alijah Holder (2nd rounder). The latter three all grade above Holton Hill as cornerbacks.

If you look at the data from the last draft then the disparity becomes even greater. The Pac 12 had 8 defensive backs taken last year before the Big 12 had their first, Rasul Douglass in the third round.

Ya ... production in college definetly translates to production in the nfl ... ...

Out of all the dumb arguments to come out of his computer key board .. this is by far the DUMBEST ONE ...

College production is a sure fire sign of NFL production ... ...

i agree, which is why i value results over guys who just look the part.

so many things go into playing QB rather just being a pure passer, especially in todays game.

i look at Rosen, and i know people will get triggered, but his injury history is concerning because he reminds me of Jake Locker, all the talent, can't stay on the field.

or how about the guy who i think might be the best example: Sam Bradford. all the talent, pure passer, can't stay on the field.

then he has work ethic and leadership concerns, ala Jay cutler.

lamar and Mayfield's biggest knock is they aren't pure passers.

guys like Bone say there's multiple ways to win in this league. i agree with that.

but if thats the case, then why are so many people deadset on a guy with more questions than answers, compared to the other guys who have more answers than questions?

i simply don't get it. which is why i base my views on QB's on results. Watson played against nothing but NFL talent back to back years in the playoffs. he came out on top, and it translated to the NFL before he got hurt in practice.

CHS disagrees, but Baker plays against a lot of nfl talent, and now we will see how he fairs in the playoffs. but beating OSU, a team stacked with nfl talent, has to count for something.

hell, Darnold has more success than Rosen.

do you just follow me around?

why do the refs allow you to stalk me?

Keep pimpin Jackson if you want.

You're right, there IS more to a QB than just being a pocket passer. Much more and it has NOTHING to do with Today's NFL.

I want Mobility in my QB. YOU want some Kat that can do the R/O BS and take off running every chance he gets.

Watch what happens to your Boy Watson next year if he continues doing that.

You think the NFL is moving towards QB's like Jackson and that's a JOKE if you look at every Starting QB in the league. Maybe FIVE run around like that.

This will ALWAYS be a Pocket QB with Mobility League.

I'd guess the development of 80%+ of first round picks or any draftee really depends on the coach.

Bill Belichick isn't the greatest NFL coach ever because he "got lucky" with draft picks.

He's had basically the same information everybody has had on draft prospects.

It's his amazing ability to communicate with, motivate, develop and evaluate current players.

did you actually watch any of the Houston games? Watson's rushing attempts were surprisingly low. guys like Wentz and Wilson were on pace to have more rushing attempts.

you must have missed my previous post in other threads, because i don't have a problem with pocket QB's with mobility. i have listed plenty of them over and over.

but Rosen doesn't have mobility. he is a statue who doesn't have good movement even within the pocket, nevermind consistent roll outs and such.

i never said i wanted a guy who will run every chance he gets, so i don't know how we can continue having a convo when you're blatantly misrepresenting my stance.

watson had 15 TD passes before getting injured, not in a game, but in practice.

i dunno how you can trash his running when he has 15 TD passes. he was whooping other "pocket QB's" in that category.

Well he is right.

But Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay said! And nobody's allowed to question them.

Browns have to live with the results of their pick.

no one is right until we see these guys actually play in the nfl.

so ill take the results over guys who just pass the ball well. if that was the be all end all, guys like Mike Glennon and Jay Cutler would be SB winners.

and if the GM and Hue think Rosen is the guy, so be it.

if they don't think he is the guy, so be it.

and yea bro, Kiper and McShay have been wrong so many times it's crazy. it's all speculation anyway, so whatever.

I posted the stats the other day so if you wish to look at them, they're easy to find. Colt McCoy was the winningest QB in college history at the time we drafted him. His completion percentage was over 70%.

According to your scenario, we should have had a franchise QB when we drafted him.

Now I understand the logic you're using, but there's a lot of evidence that dictates the gauge you're using is flawed.

This is why I like Mayfield. Mobile pocket passer. Ready to start day one.

I'm not a fan of Lamar Jackson, but I think he's going to need some time to learn.

If the Dorsey on Rosen reports are true then I would lessen the chances he's the #1 overall pick unless we do a draft and trade type deal.

Darnold would need to sit, so Alex Smith would be possible. I'd almost go as far as to say Darnold would be a target if he comes out. I think if he knew the Browns would draft him #1 he'd come out.

Allen is your typical has all the physical tools guy, but can he make it work in the NFL. He's another Kizer, but worse.


The premise of this thread is silly as we desperately need a QB. QB will be our first pick and it's not a reach.

Mayfield is the pick, but there's so much stigma on "shorter" quarterbacks that it will look like a disaster if we draft him even though he's more of a sure thing than the others. I would love to see Grossi's head explode if we draft Mayfield #1. And I'd love to see Mayfield shut him up.

I'm actually tired of reading about the need to draft the guys who "look" like a quarterback. We have that in Kizer. Why don't we go get the guy who is going to win us games?

and there's a lot of evidence that says the way you gauge QB's are flawed.

which is why it's all speculation.

the way you and others gauge QB's stated that mitchell Trubisky was a better QB than Watson.

yet they got to the NFL, and Trubisky still doesn't have HALF the TD's Watson has thrown.

15 Td's passes compared to Trubisky's 7.

oops, my bad, watson has 19 TD passes compared to Trub's 7.

he has 21 total TD's compared to Trub's 9.

he has 9 total turnovers compared to Trub's 12.

and if we're talking completion % in college, then both their last year in college, Watson had 67%, trub had 68%.

Watson also tossed 11 more TD's, played in the playoffs, and have a national Title to his name.

so yea, i like my method of judging QB's just fine.

also, i don't just judge off of results, i judge based on perception and reports. Watson, Jackson, Darnold and Mayfield don't have leadership concerns. they don't have work ethic concerns. other than maybe Watson, they really didn't have injury concerns.

Rosen has NONE of the success those other QB's have, with all of the concerns that the other QB's DON'T have.

imo Rosen is like Peyton. Darnold is like Brett Favre. Mayfield is a cross between JFF and Brees. Lamar has no analog, he's a unicorn.

Did swish really say that ... ..

1st off he thinks way to much of himself ... i have a certain IQ level someone must obtain before i even consider stalking them ... needless to say he falls way short just based off his college production statement ... *LOL* ...

2nd of all he is reffering to the SAME REFS that allowed him to call me:

A PIECE OF TRASH AND CRAP ... thats an exact quote ...

And he wants to know why they allow me to “stalk” him ... ...

Is it possible to have a negative IQ? ...

Actually Swish you would be incorrect. I know you pimed Watson hard. Now I really didn't pimp Watson but let me tell you what I did say. I really didn't care much for that QB class. But what I did say is that if I had to pick a QB in that draft, I would draft Watson. That's exactly what I said.

However, while early returns look good on Watson, it's still too early to tell.

What there wasn't in that class was a QB who had proven he could run a pro style offense. A QB who could go through his progressions. A QB who could read D's post snap. A QB who would stand in the pocket or become mobile in the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield the entire time.

All of these will be question marks when you draft QB's out of college systems that do not resemble a pro style offense. All of those questions are left unanswered.

With each of those unanswered questions it's yet another gamble that you take. In the business world you try to minimize your risks. To reduce your gambles. You see, in your scenario, you're willing to gamble that Mayfield will be able to transition and be able to do all of the things that we already know Rosen can do. I'm not saying he can't, but there's no way of knowing if he can.

So let's just say I think it's smarter to end up with a Rosen who we already know he can do, than another Colt McCoy that wins and completes passes, but we have no clue on whether he can overcome the question marks he has coming into the NFL.

you keep saying it's pro-style....but it's still college concepts against college competition.

and again, you're talking about passing ability as if nothing else matters.

which is why i said previously, if being a pure passer is all that matters in the nfl, then sure, take Rosen. but if that was the case, why haven't guys like Mike Glennon, Leinart, Cutler, etc not been taking their teams to the playoffs on a regular basis?

but that isn't close to being the case.

if this guy is so ready and so good in a pro style offense, where's the success? where's the absolute dominant performances? Rosen should've been EATING teams alive week in and week out.

but he's not. hell, he can't even stay on the field on a consistent basis.

we don't know if he can rally his teammates around him. we don't know the depth of his injuries, we don't know if his work ethic will be a concern in the nfl level, he hasn't shown he has the mobility to move in the pocket, do roll outs, and extend plays, because he doesn't do that on a remotely consistent basis at the college level.

so again, if pure passing ability was the only metric that mattered, then Rosen is the obvious choice.

but since that isn't close to being the case, IMO, he has way more questions than answers, especially with the fact that he'll already be coming into the NFL with an extensive injury history.

Love how you continuously equate Rosen to Glennon and Leinart - not even close in terms of skill and talent. Also, I would venture to guess that the team around Rosen is significantly less talented than say the one Baker has or even Watson had for that matter. It is a team sport after all.

He went to UCLA, not USC. His head coach was also Jim Mora.

Also Leinart and Glennon being called pure passers is a very hot take.

we're gonna take Rosen and be bums again

Darnold, Mayfield, or Jackson.

but instead, we'll take the guy who can't even stay on the field. cause browns fans love broken QB's

I think that we're taking Darnold.

We're taking Baker and Darnold won't come out

I'm not so sure anymore. This, from yesterday.



Darnold isn't Rosen. He's not from a highly affluent family, so the promise of a $30M payday is going to be a lot harder for him to turn down.

This Rosen scandal might actually make it more likely that Darnold enters the draft. Personally, I think the #1 and #2 picks are Rosen and Darnold, we just don't know yet which order. If Rosen won't be a Cleveland Brown, that makes Darnold a near-uncontested first overall selection.

I hope they ALL come out .. What a great class to chart some QB's over the next half a dozen years .. I have my own take and as I said before I would be drafting two Qb's this draft ..