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1 and if it's zero, he can say that he'll jump in the lake to get another season.

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How The NFL Uses Analytics, According To The Lead Analyst Of A Super Bowl Champion

https://www.forbes.com/sites/liamfox/202...sh=fe442e1424e6

As is the case with many sports this century, data has changed football.

Analytics are playing an increasingly large role in the NFL, affecting strategy, personnel decisions and ultimately the outcome of games. For many, analytics may seem a confounding idea that clashes with their traditional view of what football is. For others, perhaps it seems merely a buzzword thrown out by coaches and broadcasters to demonstrate that a team has a modern approach. But how exactly are analytics utilized in the NFL and how does utilizing data impact the game today?

Who better to ask than the data analyst of a recent Super Bowl champion? Ryan Paganetti was an analyst and game management coach with the Philadelphia Eagles for six seasons between 2015-2020. He was the primary voice in head coach Doug Pederson’s ear as far as analytics were concerned and Philadelphia was perhaps the most forward-thinking team in the NFL during his time there. Data-driven strategies and aggressive decisionmaking were part of the reason the Eagles won Super Bowl LII in the 2017 season.

Paganetti studied data for the Eagles to help better-inform the team’s game planning and in-game strategy. The Dartmouth graduate was focused on statistical analysis and coaching analytics, feeding any potential advantage he found in the data to the Eagles’ coaching staff.

“Using things like win probability and expected points added to understand the magnitude of plays,” Paganetti said.

Expected Points (EP) and Expected Points Added (EPA) are metrics widely-used today by NFL teams and members of the media. They measure the value of a play and can better-show how effective a player or team is overall and in certain situations. It is generally accepted that EP and EPA tell us more about production than conventional yardage statistics because not all yardage is created equal. For example, a three-yard gain on fourth-and-2 is not worth the same as a three-yard gain on fourth-and-7. EP provides a baseline for specific situations in games and EPA measures if a player or team performs better or worse in that situation than expected.

By utilizing those metrics and others, an NFL team can better-inform its decision making. Analytics also makes game planning more efficient, because the data can quickly show coaches how often an opposing offense or defense utilizes different plays and formations (i.e. team tendencies) and how successful various plays were against those formations. For example, the data may show that an opposing offense uses 11 personnel (one RB, one TE and three WRs) 50 percent of the time and favors running crossing routes and play action out of that formation. Knowing that information without having to watch several hours’ worth of tape is extremely valuable.

Paganetti was hired by the Eagles in 2015, which coincided with Chip Kelly’s last year there as head coach. He was retained when Doug Pederson was hired and built a great relationship with the aggressive and analytically-minded head coach. The Eagles’ use of data started with being more aggressive in specific situations – fourth downs and two-point conversions – which tracks with the league-wide adoption of analytic strategies.

According to a study done by Football Outsiders, an analytics community favorite, Pederson was the most aggressive head coach in NFL history during his time in Philadelphia. The Eagles ranked either first or second in the league in fourth-down attempts all five years under Pederson. The Eagles also led the league in two-point conversion attempts in both 2017 and 2020.

“I think that was a good example of Doug’s receptiveness. Ultimately, it was going to be his decision ... but he wanted to know the information and be able to digest the information and make the best decision for the football team,” Paganetti said.

Paganetti believes that partly because of the Eagles’ Super Bowl success, other teams around the league have adopted aggressive tendencies based on analytics. Fourth-down attempts and two-point conversion attempts league wide have skyrocketed to historic levels over the past few seasons. “The way the NFL works, when one team wins the Super Bowl, the other 31 teams spend the offseason trying to find ideas to copy from that team,” Paganetti said.

Another major area that data informs is in-game situations, which includes clock management (i.e. when to use timeouts versus when to let the clock run), when a play is valuable enough to use a challenge on and when to accept penalties. All of those in-game charts in Philadelphia were finalized before the season according to Paganetti, but could be altered slightly depending on the Eagles’ opponent.

His in-season work largely involved using analytics to help with game planning. Paganetti would analyze the data pertaining to an upcoming opponent to find any sort of statistical tendencies or notable trends that could be exploited. The result of that research could be anything that benefited the team’s approach for that specific game.

“It really was on a week-to-week basis with some of the game planning stuff. It really could be anything that comes up that could be pertinent to that particular week and that is something that I really enjoyed,” Paganetti said.

The timing of communicating that data-based information was crucial. Paganetti needed to have it ready for the coaches when their game planning began, which usually meant either early in the week or even in the week prior to the game to give coaches enough time to install corresponding strategies into their game plan. Paganetti says that he was involved in many of the Eagles’ coaching meetings as well, which gave him more credibility with the staff and players, and helped him understand how the information he was sharing could be utilized and implemented.

He would sit up in the booth during games and meet with Pederson at halftime to share potential strategy changes based on the data he was analyzing during that specific game. Paganetti’s insight was only as helpful as the most recent data he was analyzing.

The pivotal game during the 2017 Super Bowl season as far as analytics are concerned according to Paganetti came in Week 2 against the Chiefs. The Eagles were down two touchdowns and scored late in the game to cut the deficit to eight. Rather than kick the extra point, Paganetti told Pederson that the data dictates that it made more sense for the Eagles to attempt a two-point conversion to try and cut the deficit to six points, knowing no matter what that they needed to score another touchdown later on.

It is a concept that has gained in popularity in the years since and is increasingly employed by NFL teams when they are in that specific situation. At the time however, it was a foreign idea to many in the NFL and in Philadelphia. “I shared this information and I had several staff members, during the game, freaking out and borderline having a confrontation,” Paganetti said. Due to the confusion, Pederson went the traditional route and kicked the extra point.

That small moment ended up being a turning point in the season. Thanks to a post-game discussion between Paganetti and Pederson, and then Pederson and his staff, the Eagles further committed to what Paganetti’s analytics were telling them. Philadelphia won nine straight games after that loss to Kansas City and would raise the Lombardi Trophy five months later. It was a moment that Paganetti believes was critical to that season and critical to the NFL’s continuing acceptance of analytics.

“From that moment on, there was never another time that entire rest of the season where anyone questioned the information I was sharing with him,” Paganetti said.

Prior to that season, as he often did in the offseason, Paganetti conducted various league-wide studies. One of those studies involved the success rate of quarterback sneaks. He looked at what worked, what didn’t and the limits to running that play were. The data showed that it was a significant exploitable advantage in short-yardage situations that Paganetti believed was not utilized enough around the league. Even when the opposing defense was aligned perfectly, the offense in those situations usually picked up the first-down when calling a quarterback sneak.

Paganetti presented his findings to the Eagles, including the optimal offensive alignment, quarterback footwork and situations to maximize the potential of a quarterback sneak play-call. Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz went a perfect 13-for-13 on QB sneaks in 2017. It was a black and white example of a data-driven strategy that led to success in games.

“For the coaches, I think it increased the buy-in even more,” Paganetti said. “I think that was a wake up call for certain guys.”

The mainstream acceptance of football analytics seems to start with Brian Burke and his work on the website Advanced Football Analytics starting in the mid 2000s. Now with ESPN, Burke has proven to the NFL what analytics can accomplish and once inspired Paganetti’s own passion in the subject. “If Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T. of quarterbacks, then Brian Burke is the G.O.A.T. of football analytics,” Paganetti said.

Other websites like Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders have helped popularize the acceptance of football analytics as well and modernized how the game is analyzed.

How analytics are utilized is always changing as the concept becomes more accepted by coaches and general managers around the league. On the personnel side, GPS tracking of player movements and machine learning models are being used to project player success from college to the NFL. The understanding of football data is deepening as well and how analytics are implemented is becoming more nuanced of a conversation.

Its early adoptance was heavily tied to increasing aggressiveness, but that is becoming old news. Paganetti says that he is starting to see the analytics community criticize some teams’ overly-aggressive fourth down decisions, which was rarely the case before. Teams need to find other ways to add value through analytics because going for it more on fourth down and attempting more two-point conversions is no longer an edge; it is now a league-wide phenomenon.

“The thing I’m looking at, I think some of these win-probability models that teams might be using are almost overestimating aggressiveness. So, I think you might even see either this year or next year a little bit of a bounce back,” Paganetti said. “I think to some degree, I think we are getting closer and closer to a limit, particularly with fourth downs. We are approaching peak aggressiveness.”

Paganetti says that he expects to do some consulting work with NFL teams this season and will look to reenter the league as a full-time analyst in 2022. He still feels that he has more to accomplish in the league through the use of analytics. Perhaps Paganetti can try to recreate the Super Bowl magic he captured in Philadelphia alongside Pederson and a certain MVP quarterback.

“I certainly think there is a chance that I will link up with Coach Pederson in the future and maybe we get Nick Foles back and try to run it back,” Paganetti said.









You know my love will Not Fade Away.........


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Originally Posted By: PitDAWG
I think how the WR's produce that are lower on the depth chart will be a critical ingredient in the moves we make going forward. It would be hard to give up your #1 and or #2 WR's if people like Schwartz and DPJ do not develop into the WR's we all hope they will.

How they develop and produce will go a very long way in how we handle the situations with Landry and OBJ moving forward IMO.


Absolutely but you can't miss this is what the plan that the FO has laid out. At some point DPJ and hopefully Schwartz are going to demand or beg for playing time.

I can't speak for others but I think that the QB makes the WR but in the instance of Baker just being drafted surrounding him with top shelf WR's was a great move. Those guys probably were a bit much for baker in his 1st year but in his second they were invaluable I would guess. But Baker is no longer a rookie at this point he is a seasoned Vet to a degree.

I really believe that his 1st 2 seasons were wasted with poor coaching and scheme. That is no longer an issue either, and Baker really seems to have a solid handle on this offense, in fact I think he advertises his comfort. He needs to foster the kind of relationship with DPJ and Schwartz he seems to have with Landry and OBJ. He needs to assume a leadership roll with those guys and I think he will.

I have no real concerns with the Browns offense looking to the future we look to be in good shape on that front well enough into the future when you look at it out a year or 2. Chubb is under contract the O line is a bit concerning with some of the guys getting a bit long in the tooth in the next few years but with Callahan on board here I think we are OK there too. We keep drafting young guys along the line and developing them. All good IMO.

The defense is still of concern in the long term next season we will be back looking for a DE and I believe tackles as well. We have issues as we speak with injuries and depth at the LB position. I think JOK will be a monster for us. He is the most explosive defensive player I have ever seen and if he can stay healthy he will be the most disruptive player maybe to ever set foot on a football field.

I am not a guy that spends a lot of time watching college football so I hardly know what the talent coming out looks like nor can I watch a college player and forecast how their skill set translates to the NFL. I read a lot when it comes to the draft and I go and watch tape on players that draw media attention or the attention of members of the board especially Bonefish who seems to really watch a lot of young college players. I also happen to see nearly everything he does just like he does. Maybe it's were both a couple of old bastards. But he has been screaming about JOK and after watching him play and reading about how disruptive he is in camp I think he is going to be one of the rarest players to ever set foot on an NFL field. He is full speed after about half a step unbelievably explosive. When you sit down and imagine for just a moment what you can do with him, he truly blows your mind. I know it's pre-season and just camp but he jumps out at me like no player I have EVER EVER seen.

Imagine lining this guy up just off the back shoulder of Myles then looping him around up the gut or having him jump in behind Myles from a middle LB position at the snap? He is so explosive he will make Myles better and create all sorts of nightmares for O Lines and QB's. Man I drool thinking about this kid. He has natural skills, we have never seen in one package. How he wasn't the Browns 1st pick in the draft blows my mind. I know the Browns wanted him but he isn't a player that fits anything really so they sorta skipped over him to address our backend. When he was still available in round 2 Woods must have been driving them crazy to get this kid. I can see why.

I don't know what to call him either he is sorta like the rover in slow pitch softball just move him to where he can do you the most good. He is a nightmare for apposing offenses, and I believe that will all start game one and Mahomes.

We do need some veteran backups in case we have an injury to what is left of our LB core. And we need a hammer in the middle anyway IMO. I thought Phillips would fill that roll but he is lost for most if not all of the season. That puts us in a bad spot. I just don't see Mack or Taki as viable LBers. It appears they have made some progress in the offseason but I just do NOT like LBers who miss tackles, especially when it's crunch time.

Man I started out to sorta just agree with what you said and wrote a book but everything sorta goes together I guess ?


BTTB

AKA Upbeat Dawg

Can't believe I am in a group that is comprised of the best NOT just fans but people on the planet.
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