DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Baker Mayfield Part IV A New Hope

Actually I've considered that. I'll use a statement in your post and add to it. " they also haven't done anything to prepare for his exit."... as of yet.

Now I'm not trying to make a prediction here. I have no idea what's going on behind closed doors. But if in fact they do not see Baker as the long term future at the QB position, there is still a very viable move they could make. Baker is stuck with the Browns having a fifth year option on his contract. If the FO wishes to hold Baker here for one more year they can. That leaves them this years draft to address getting a QB and giving him a year to develop before putting him on the field. That doesn't mean they have to leave the drafted QB on the bench the entire season but it's the teams option.

I know people might say then what would motivate Baker to play well? It's because he would have a one year window to prove his value to other NFL teams.

I don't want anyone elses hair to catch on fire so once again, this is not something I propose happen or that I'm supporting. But I do think it's a reasonable option for the team to follow if they decide Baker isn't the answer.

NFL has this video blocked, but it's eery...

Oh, I hear you. Hell, they could come out tomorrow and say they're trading for Wilson or whoever and had been working on it for months, for all we know.

But to get something like that done would require a LOT of assets. To me, this doesn't seem to be a group that would sign off on giving away their next few drafts. I dunno... I just feel (emphasis on feel) that the limited data points we have point to them being more on board with Baker than not... if for no other reason than because chances of them upgrading are very very low.

The question is do we handoff 60% of the time because of the QB?

Also, what changed since last year to make our scheme/playcaller worse?

I don't think it would take a vast amount of assets if they thought they could draft a better replacement. Not saying they believe that. But you seem to be indicating they would use a vast amount of assets in a trade. My assertion is they wouldn't trade but instead draft a replacement. And no, I have no idea if they think that or who their target would be. It's my hope that we start getting a more consistent Mayfield and we never have to cross that bridge. Bit as of this moment I certainly wouldn't be considering a long term, high investment deal with Baker if I were in their shoes. My strategy would be that I would have to see him for another season and have someone waiting in the wings just in case. The fifth year option would be my call.

My guess is that the majority of this board thinks we abandon the run waaay too often.

If you go back and look at the Vikings when Stefanski started to make a reputation for himself in 2017 with Keenum, he was a game manager, averaging about 236 ypg, then with Cousins it was about the same, 240ish yards per game for 2 years when he was the QB coach and then as the OC. He doesn't want an offense that runs through the play of the QB, he wants efficient, but not spectacular play, from his QB. In a league where half the QBs average over 250 ypg, Stefanski has never had one that did. Since Stefanski left, Cousins has been averaging 260-270 ypg.. granted the Vikings aren't winning as many games though. The one year he had an offense break into the top 10 in the NFL in yards was 2019, when the Vikings were 8th, but they were 6th in the NFL in rushing and about 23rd in passing.

His offense just isn't designed to be dynamic, it's designed to be methodical.... which is why, IMHO, when methodical isn't working and/or his teams fall behind, there is no switch to flip that makes it more dynamic. In 2019 when they were 11-7 (counting 2 playoff games), the Vikings had 1 come from behind victory... all of the rest of their wins were just like ours, where they would build a lead early and sometimes they would win comfortably, or the other times the opponent would start to come back and they would just try to hold on. If they fell behind early, they lost. Even in the comeback win where they scored 3 TDs in the 4th quarter, Cousins had 2 passes greater than 10 yards, one a bomb to Diggs for a TD and one a dump off where the guy ran for 32 yards and a TD.. so he really completed 1 pass where he threw the ball farther than 10 yards in a 20 point 4th quarter comeback.

Now, I'm not saying all of this as a negative against Stefanski, it's just who he has proven himself to be, so take it for what it is... we are having a big debate about "franchise QBs", I'm not saying Stefanski doesn't "want one", I'm just not sure he would allow one to develop. Almost all of the other QBs on the list in that thread are in the 270+ish range for ypg and almost all of them have seasons where they were closer to or over 300 ypg... I don't think Stefanski would let that happen.

Or does Stefanski have a QB who can’t read a defense and throws into double coverage when a defense disguises its coverage?

JMHO, you can't change much how big you are, nor after four years are you going to improve much over what you've been.
Mayfield won the Heisman at Oklahoma-in the Big 12. He was highly successful, but got drafted at 1 due to that performance. If you had choice between Murray or Baker, which would you take TODAY- I'd take M, how about comparing Mayfield to Bengals B...I'd take B....Mayfield has shown what he can do AND can't do. He wasn't smart enough to let someone else tackle, he's a tough small guy, who isn't that athletics. I would draft a new QB and would not invest huge money on Baker. He's a multimillionaire now, no tears for him. NFL- not for long. I'm very happy we invested in our linemen....but the talk of 17-0 sure has changed. Covid and injuries have derailed this year. I want a bigger, more athletics QB who knows his job is not to tackle. Go Browns!!!!

Every QB throws into double coverage when being fooled. You cannot name one QB that hasn't multiple times. However, disguising the defense needs to be read by the QB but you learn that from experience and you're not going to see all their tricks if you're handing the ball off 60% of the time and 50% of your passes are going 5-6 yds downfield. Real game experience has to be the point of the learning curve. Drafting another QB, signing a high level free agent, or staying with Baker has no bearing on win totals or performance if the proposed QB's are given no more latitude than to be game managers in a run first scheme with dinks and dunks. As stated, Stefanski's history shows he wants a controlled game and that includes a dink and dunk pass scheme. If he won't change for Keenum, Cousins or Baker you can bet your azz he isn't going to change for some rookie and like I said, "NO HIGH LEVEL QB WOULD EVEN CONSIDER COMING TO CLEVELAND as long as they stay with the current scheme. If you want a more big play QB then the scheme has to change. If you're going to change the scheme for a big name then why not do it now so the Browns can see what type of QB they really have under contract. Just a thought ...................

1. There have been throws downfield available all year.
2. This is Baker’s fourth year, how much more game experience does he need?

Reading some of the replies on here it sounds like some believe that Stefanski has forbid Baker to throw to an open WR if he's more than 10 yards downfield. Because they've been there and they've been open. It must be Stefanski's fault.

The most logical/realistic path is keeping Baker for 2021 and letting him play out his fifth year option with a competitive backup on the roster. Drafting a QB doesn’t make sense based on where we are at as a team and where we will be drafting (somehow the Chiefs struck gold doing this). If a high quality does become available to us then we need to take the shot. Being stuck in the middle is the worst spot to be in.

I certainly do not have the answer here. And I understand why you would feel that way. As of now I don't see a clear cut answer either way. As it pertains to Building the Browns, it's a nice, feel good piece of public relations to show the fans exactly what they want the fans to see. But it's nothing more than that. I don't take PR seriously because I know it's about image and not actual content.

Case in point. From watching Building the Browns nobody would have expected Myles to come out questioning the defensive coaching staff the way he did. Because they paint everything as rosy.

It is hard to find a good QB and it's all a crap shoot. But if and when they make a decision that Baker isn't the answer, you don't simply stick with what you think is broken because of the fear of moving forward. I have no idea what they're thinking. But if they pick up his fifth year option instead of extending him it will be a clear indication they're not sold on baker.

For me it's a wait and see game as to how they feel about Baker. I'll follow the money.

Baker has played 27 games with Stefanski...

2 games with 2 INTs
9 games with 1 INT
16 games with 0 INTs

Maybe only a few teams in the NFL make an attempt to disguise their coverage?

I was referring specifically to the INT in the Patriots game.

I'm saying the Browns don't play a vertical game. Second, how many of those openings downfield were the actual route expected? I've seen numerous times Baker has pointed or conversed with a player for not running the planned route. AKA, why there's no more OBJ. Here's some stats that might help refute Baker's throws:

Baker has the 8th best QBR in the AFC at 95.7 thru the first 10 weeks.
Baker is 11th in the AFC in completion percent at 65.4% (the conference best is currently only 69.2%)
The Browns receivers have dropped 10 passes thru 10 games. If half of those were caught, Baker would be a top 5 AFC QB for completion percentage.
Baker has only attempted 246 passes this season ranking him 13th in the AFC out of 16 teams. In comparison, every AFC QB in the top 10 has over 300 attempts, top 5 over 330 attempts and top 2 over 350 attempts.
For those of you that say Baker is missing open downfield receivers, Baker is 3rd in Pass Yards/Attempt at 8.09 yards only trailing Carr @ 8.14 on 347 attempts and Burrow @ 8.73 on 286 attempts.

Just an FYI, Baker's Pass Yards/Attempt of 8.09 yards is higher than Rodgers 7.41, Brady's 7.61, and Cousin's 7.18.
For attempts though, Baker is 26th out of 32 in the league at 246. Mahomes leads at 412 (166 more attempts through 10 weeks)

So the two questions are: 1) How do we know how good Baker can be if we don't let him throw the ball? 2) If we make a change to another vet, what quality QB would even consider coming here to throw less and not use their skill set?

I know, but you posted a global conclusion that he can't read defenses based on that throw. I saw his TD to DPJ against the Bengals, therefore I know he can read defenses, he does look for WRs downfield, and he throws a great deep ball.

Yet if one actually looks at the percentages of int's per pass attempt Baker doesn't rank well. The fact he has less pass attempts than many other QB's because of our superior running game makes the stats you posted look rather deceptive.

https://www.footballdb.com/leaders/active-passing-intpct

I think to a great extent we agree. I think they will extend the fifth year option rather than extend his contract at this juncture. That keeps him here for another year while at the same time seeing how things progress from here and giving them the option to extend him at the end of the 2022 season. Don't you think that going into a QB's fourth year it's realistic for an organization to expect they are building on the QB's third year? And I certainly agree that Baker has made every effort to to accept their coaching. I'm just not sure how that is relative to what we are seeing on the field of play.

Where did you get the link with Mark Brunell, Colin Kaepernick, and Bernie Kosar on it?

These are NFL QB's with 1500 minimum passing attempts. With greats like Neil O'Donnell, Case Keenum, Brian Hoyer, David Garrard and Steve Bono all rated well above Baker in lower interception rate per pass attempts.

So on the all time list Baker is in the top 50, essentially tied with Peyton Manning? Pretty cool to know.

This year, of those with at least 100 attempts, Baker is 6th in the NFL behind Cousins, Wentz, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Bridgewater.. so clearly this stat is not the end all be all... because some of the guys much farther down on the list are Mahomes, Ryan, Murray, Brady, Wilson...

Truth be told, it wouldn't bother me if Baker threw a few more interceptions because he was taking more chances, pushing the ball down the field, trying to make bigger plays... His first year, his INT% was 2.9, then it went up to 3.9 under Freddie, then 2 years under Stefanski it has plummeted to 1.6 both years...

pit - you keep wanting to use the Freddie Kitchens year - 21 interceptions that year - and paint Baker a final product based of his second year, with his 3rd HC who happens to be one of the worst HC in the history of the NFL.

His Rookie year he threw 14 Int. Which is pretty decent for a rookie starting what was it - 13 games? Last year he threw 8 in a full season. A full season where he was learning yet another new offense and where KS wanted him to be a different QB and Baker played badly in the first 5-6 games of the season....

Comparing a 4th year QB who p[layed as a rookie for a 1-31 team - then played for Kitchens in a woefully tragic year - and using those stats to compare to guys who played full careers in the NFL.... and thinking that's some sort of gotcha moment? Dude - seriously you are trying WAY too hard.

I can't believe how the DT talking heads avoided the simple question I asked of them...

...ARE THERE REASONS FOR THE BROWNS DECLINE IN MAYFIELD'S PLAY OR THE PLAY OF THE BROWNS OFFENSE?

A whole bunch of Browns fans are not being honest about what is going on in Cleveland, pertaining to the offense's lack of production, especially the passing game. Not a hard question to answer boys and girls, unless your simple avoiding the obvious answers, preferring to listen to the "fake Browns fans" (the national media talking heads)who have never endured half of what the average true Browns fans have endured, trying to support this franchise.

Those of you who dare to be honest know damn well their are legitimate reasons that affect the performance of the Browns offense...now let's see if any of you can admit it.

Who are you? And what position do you have with the team?

We can't read your dang mind. There are a lot of reasons for a lot of things if you want to throw someone under the bus,
just do it! don't expect others to guess who it is that you have a problem with.

Because if the question is, Are there reasons for a decline in the Browns offense in general, or Mayfields' play more specifically, then yes there are reasons and the list is a laundry list of many different reasons.

Or maybe the Browns defense?????

My take is this. All the injuries to baker have pretty much taken away the play action roll out we used so much last season. Also, stefanski playcalling has become so predictable. How many times when the game is close or tied have we seen us with 1st and 10 come out in a shotgun and empty backfield? How many times have we seen the other team score and stefanski basically panic and abandon the run game and become pass happy? Stefanskis arrogance and refusal to hand over playcalling to pelt will he a major reason we dont make the playoffs. Of course joe woods will also be a big reason but that's another topic

Notes from an article in The Athletic...

Games are going to be close. They’re going to be decided by a few plays — and often in the last few minutes. In 10 games, the Browns have led going to the fourth quarter eight times, but they have been outscored by 34 points in the fourth quarter this season. They have a total of seven fourth-quarter points over their last five games. Seven. Total.

The Browns are only converting 37 percent of their third-down chances, and only 30 percent on the road. Their offense is 27th league-wide on third downs, and the defense is 28th as opponents are converting at better than 44 percent. Head coach Kevin Stefanski won’t ever say it, but his actions say he wants his team to be aggressive in trying to convert fourth downs, too. Well, the Browns are 25th at that.

And...

Chubb and Hunt drive the offense. When the Browns had Hunt and Chubb both in the lineup for the first five games, they were 3-2 and averaged 28.4 points per game. In the other five, they’re 2-3 and averaging 17.8. In his seven games, Chubb has 721 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns and is averaging a career-best 6.0 yards per carry. Hunt got hurt on Oct. 17; starting that day, the Browns have scored 17 or fewer in four of the last five games.

Maybe didn't feel worthy.

To be fair, I don't think we ever really envisioned/prepared for not having both Chubb and Hunt available. Johnson has been more than adequate, and I tip my hat to him and his efforts in the Pats and Broncos games, but I think it's clear that our offense requires more than that (again, no slight to Johnson) from the RB position.

Actually in his third year Stefanski was his coach. This is Baker's fourth year. And no matter how you slice it, Baker is who he is now. Either you haven't been following what I've been saying or I've done a poor job in communicating it. Either way, what I'm saying is we don't know what Baker is. Kitchens wasn't throwing the ball. Stefanski wasn't throwing the ball last year. In both cases
Baker was. We've seen good Baker and bad Baker. There's no way in my mind anyone can say with any confidence whether Baker is the answer or not. I'm certainly not saying he can't or won't be. I'm saying it's a big question mark at this point in time. So I hope that helps clear things up.

My assertion is with the evidence this FO is being faced it would seem more likely they pick up Baker's fifth year option and give this experiment another year before committing to a big money contract. For the last several weeks with the exception of the Bengals game, our scoring has been anemic. Without our defense really holding down our opponents, we wouldn't have won any of them. Now I'm not laying all of that at the feet of Baker. But if you really believe we should go all in on Baker based on what you've seen these past several weeks by resting your laurels on what you saw last season, we simply disagree.

That isn't an argument to kick Baker to the curb. It isn't saying there isn't a possibility things won't change. All I'm really trying to do here is point out that football is a business. No matter your job, you aren't being judged on what you did last year. You're judged on your current performance. Your "annual review" as it were. You see, it seems I'm not the one here who is trying to cherry pick the best or the worst of Baker. I'm taking his work as a whole. And at this time, this FO is going to have to look at where Baker is now when deciding to commit to either signing him to huge money on a long term deal or picking up his fifth year option.

Based on those two options I think waiting to take a look at that fifth year would be the wisest path forward.

Actually Pit, the Browns have already exercised the 5th year option on both Ward and Mayfield. They did that back in April I believe. If I am understanding correctly, that option has to be exercised prior to the start of their 4th season.

You are correct. Thanks for that. I do however think most of us know that rarely does a team that thinks they have the answer of a franchise QB do they allow it to go into his fifth season before working out an extension. I just don't believe this FO knows exactly what they have, yet. Time will tell I guess.

Correct. The Browns picked up Baker's 5th year option back in late April. It was an obvious move back then.

If there are some on this board who want to replace Baker fine they are entitled to their opinion. My ? is who are we going to replace him with? If Rodgers or Wilson don't want to come here what can we do? I doubt we'll find anyone in the draft. We need to give Baker another season. With his and the teams injuries, not to mention the turmoil, it seems like the right thing to do.

I believe you are correct. We have Mayfield next year regardless. I kept getting confused myself about which was his 4th/5th year because it had to get done prior.

Despite all the overhaul that's happened over the past 2 offseasons, I'm actually starting to think the most dramatic/significant (not really finding the right word here) will be this upcoming offseason. You have Jarvis and Njoku in "put up or shutup" situations. You have Mayfield and Ward that will be entering into that zone. You also have Tretter, Higgins, Ronnie Harrison, Hubbard, Malcolm Smith, MJ Stewart (starting to get deep into depth ranks), and then the army of 1-year deals we did last offseason that are getting significant start time (Clowney, Takk, Malik Jackson, Walker). This offseason, I'm starting to think, will tell us more about our FO and coaches than the others in terms of how they go on these decisions.

And lastly, there should be some difficult conversations in terms of coaches and coaches' responsibilities, and I'll be a little surprised if they come out of those maintaining the status quo. I know we've had a lot of injuries and stuff, but there's been just too much disappointment on top of that.