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I do think they were seeing how things were going in Ukraine to gauge their process for reclaiming Taiwan. If it was an absolute cake-walk for Russia, they may have sped up their timeline. As it is, I think they are a little more hesitant now.

The biggest problem they have to wrestle with is the contradiction between having a free market economy and a state-controlled economy. At its recent economic core, China has always been a manufacturing country and a "copying" country, but it seems that there is little reward for being an innovator. We certainly have had our struggles, but I think one leg up we still have - at least currently - is rewarding the strives to be innovative and think outside the box. China, from my perspective, seems to be more about someone doing the hard work, and the state gets the credit and reaps the benefits.

One other thing too is that their millennials are starting to look like ours (and I am one). I saw an article where they are like "Kids, why have kids? I have money now and I want to spend it on enjoying life." Problem with that concept is that they're the most populous nation and they'll be real "top-heavy" with their age demographics in a decade or two. That one-child policy may have had a reverse effect in some ways.

Last edited by dawglover05; 09/20/22 03:31 PM.

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While you have a very good point about their young people not having children, China has had a very long standing "one child only" policy for a very long time. I think they recently loosened those restrictions to some extent however.


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Yeah, they did for a while (1980-2016), until I think they realized they went overboard. Now, it seems like all those "1 children" also don't want to have kids. Crazy.


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Originally Posted by OldColdDawg
Inflation is coming down. smh.



The latest report, published by the Labor Department on Sept. 13, showed inflation over the last year was still 8.3%. and unemployment rising to 4.5%.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-coming-in-next-stage-of-inflation-fight


Fed Set to Reveal ‘Pain’ Coming in Next Stage of Inflation Fight

Federal Reserve officials are about to put numbers on the “pain” they’ve been warning of in recent weeks when they publish new projections for the economy, which could show a substantial rise in interest rates and unemployment ahead as the estimated price tag for reducing inflation.

The US central bank will release its latest quarterly projections Wednesday following a two-day policy meeting in Washington, where officials are expected to raise their benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for the third time in a row.

Such a move would lift rates to levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. The next phase of the tightening cycle carries greater risks, which will probably be reflected in their revised projections.

Fed's Projections for Unemployment Rate Set to Rise Again
Officials see higher unemployment as necessary cost of inflation fight


Sources: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Bloomberg.

Note: Chart shows the evolution over time of the median Federal Open Market Committee participant's projection for unemployment in the fourth quarter of this year, 2023 and 2024.

Inflation has moderated little since the last forecast round in June, and that has pushed policy makers into a more aggressive stance. They’re also increasingly doubting old estimates of the relationship between unemployment and inflation, which may be part of the reason why they’re now inclined to aim for a bigger slowdown in economic activity.


“The higher trajectory for interest rates is going to have a bigger impact, certainly, on unemployment. We see the unemployment rate coming up closer to 4.5% in the Fed’s new forecast,” said Brett Ryan, senior US economist at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. “They still are going to peddle the ‘soft landing’ scenario, but it’s going to imply a high risk of recession within that.”

In June, the median policy maker’s projection for the unemployment rate called for a half-point increase, to 4.1%, by the end of 2024. Since then, monthly data on consumer prices have been disappointing: The latest report, published by the Labor Department on Sept. 13, showed inflation over the last year was still 8.3%.


Chair Jerome Powell and other officials meanwhile have stepped up public warnings about rising rates. In a key speech at Jackson Hole on Aug. 26, Powell suggested they would “bring some pain to households and businesses,” representing “the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation.”

What Bloomberg Economics Says...
“The overarching theme of the forecasts will be: Prepare for higher unemployment, as it will take more rate hikes and a longer period of restrictive rates before inflation comes under control. Current market pricing for the terminal fed funds rate is at 4.4%, and policy makers likely will see that as fairly priced.”

-- Anna Wong, Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger (economists)

-- For the full report click here

Charles Evans, the Chicago Fed president who during his 15-year tenure has often been seen as one of the central bank’s more dovish policy makers, said Sept. 8 that he was “optimistic that we’re going to be able to navigate this and keep unemployment to about 4.5% by the time we’re done,” adding that such a scenario “would still be a pretty good outcome, although it will be costly for some.”

But lingering inflation isn’t the only data point leading to rising pessimism at the Fed toward the way forward. Record numbers of job postings are contributing as well. And an increasingly public debate about them since June may portend higher estimates for the unemployment rate Fed officials see as consistent with low and stable inflation in the longer run.

Their median estimate for that number has been stable at about 4% since before the pandemic, so an upgrade would mark a significant shift in the committee’s thinking. Powell, in a July 27 press conference, hinted at the possibility when he said “it must have moved up materially,” citing reduced rates at which job openings are being filled.

Fed Yet to Raise Estimates of Long-Run Unemployment Rate
Higher estimates would show rising sway of job postings in policy debate


Sources: US Department of Labor, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Bloomberg.

Note: Chart shows the evolution over time of the US unemployment rate and the midpoint of the central tendency of the Federal Open Market Committee participants' estimates of the longer-run unemployment rate.

The idea is that, with approximately two openings for every unemployed person searching for work -- versus a ratio of about 1.2 in the years before the pandemic -- the unemployment rate will have to go higher now than it would have had to then to bring labor supply more in line with labor demand and reduce upward pressure on wages.

At 3.7% in August, the unemployment rate counted 6 million Americans out of work and actively searching for a job. A rise to 4.5%, assuming no change in the size of the labor force, would amount to job losses of about 1.3 million.

But the pain won’t be distributed evenly, according to Michelle Holder, an economics professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York.

Holder noted that unemployment for Black and Hispanic Americans tends to rise faster than that for White Americans in economic downturns. There’s also the risk of increased homelessness and hunger among lower-income households due to job loss, as well as the long-term impact on earnings and employability from being out of work.


“I’m fearful that if these projections have a large margin of error, we are talking about really rolling back substantive gains in terms of Black employment in this country,” Holder said. “What I think the Fed is missing is that the pain is not a sort of modest pain for everyone.”


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Housing prices coming down should be a welcomed thing IMHO.

I also think the Fed is going too far too fast. But this inflation, which I think is being spurred on more by greedy corporations and stock owners than anything else, is completely out of hand. I can't speak to the global facts with 100% certainty, but our personal budgeting shows the grocery bill up between 50-75%, electricity up about 25%, consumer goods up 10-20%, and modest increases in healthcare expenses. Personally, I expected prices to increase 10% due to the demand for living wages, and I'm good with that. But the price gouging, mysterious shortages, shipping issues, employee shortage, and crazy home prices are being 100% manufactured by greed, IMO.

Last edited by OldColdDawg; 09/20/22 10:28 PM.

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Went for another ct scan yesterday. Apparently their is a shortage of oral contrast in this country as I got less than half of what I always do.


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Originally Posted by OldColdDawg
Housing prices coming down should be a welcomed thing IMHO.

I also think the Fed is going too far too fast. But this inflation, which I think is being spurred on more by greedy corporations and stock owners than anything else, is completely out of hand. I can't speak to the global facts with 100% certainty, but our personal budgeting shows the grocery bill up between 50-75%, electricity up about 25%, consumer goods up 10-20%, and modest increases in healthcare expenses. Personally, I expected prices to increase 10% due to the demand for living wages, and I'm good with that. But the price gouging, mysterious shortages, shipping issues, employee shortage, and crazy home prices are being 100% manufactured by greed, IMO.

im glad the housing market is cooling off. screw the interest rates rising. when you look at the historical data, everybody should've known the rates were gonna climb back up. anybody who thought <3.5% was gonna be the normal was living in a fantasy world. what was pricing out most people is the total price of these homes, especially new construction homes. These builders been getting over on people for at least a little over a decade. these builders successfully lied to buyers with the "omg the cost of material is so expensive".

const of materials went down. did they lower their prices? lmfao, nope. even BEFORE the pandemic, they were raising cost for no other reason than because they can. just talking personal situation ***disclaimer*** im in a good position since i already own a home, so i know everybody is different **disclaimer** i was dealing with two builders who won't stop calling me trying to offer all these incentives to enter a contract. you clowns could've offered these incentives BEFORE crap hit the fan, and i was WILLING to pull the trigger with a 5% rate knowing the final price was gonna be higher by the time the home was built due to appreciation. oh, so NOW you wanna throw in an allowance for upgraded appliances. NOW you wanna throw in an allowance on upgraded bathrooms and interior insulation. NOW you're willing to talk to "your guy" about upgrading the electrical installation for 600 amp so i can run solar panels and geothermal heating and cooling. NOW you're willing to upgrade the flooring at no additional cost.

you wanna throw in all those incentives, but the overpriced ass base # won't come down even 3%? these homebuilders been getting over on people long enough. i say this because all those incentives means they could've BEEN lowered the prices of homes for EVERYBODY, but thats what happens when you keep trying to run those profit margins. this is why i dont GAF about businesses, small or corporate. yall need to seriously look at how they play games with their accounting and budgeting.

these builders been making a profit, whether the prices of commodities goes up or down. it's not that they're losing money; it's that they're selling these homes based whatever profit margin they artificially set, and having to sell the homes for anything less is considered a loss for them. these clowns know they can hire more people at a higher hourly rate, lower the price of the home at least 2-3%, and STILL make a profit margin somewhere between 5-7%, especially because if they did that, their profits go up do the the INCREASE in business from buyers wanting to build. but nope, don't want to do that. they out here cancelling contracts for homes that aren't atleast 22-2400 sqft AKA affordable housing for the majority of americans, and then trash ass builders like Ryan homes uses the cheapest, lowest quality of material on god's green earth in these cookie cutter ass subdivisions BECAUSE they are gonna max out that profit margin somewhere around 10% or greater. they use the lowest quality builds and charge prices like its a custom home.

screw these home builders. i know the situation sucks for individual families trying to get into homes, but these homebuilders HAVE to be put in check, because their business practices is one of the main reasons why we're in the situation across the country right now. and if we do nothing, there's no reason/incentive/whatever you want to call it for them to change and actually charge some reasonable prices for american families.


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Originally Posted by GMdawg
Went for another ct scan yesterday. Apparently their is a shortage of oral contrast in this country as I got less than half of what I always do.
There is a shortage because it is cheap. Pharma is also short on other inexpensive items... life-saving compounds for premature babies, and cancer drugs (only the cheap ones) for childhood leukemia. They're sending a message but blaming supply chain with a straight face. They should be lined up and shot.


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https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-...ailers-canceling-billions-dollars-orders

Why Are Walmart And Other Major US Retailers Canceling Billions Of Dollars In Orders As Summer Comes To An End?

Do they know something that they aren’t telling us? As you will see below, Walmart, Target and other major U.S. retailers are literally canceling billions of dollars in orders ahead of the coming holiday season. I have never heard of such a thing happening before, and under normal conditions it wouldn’t make any sense at all. The holiday season is typically the busiest time of the year for retailers, and at this time in 2021 there was actually a great deal of concern that there wouldn’t be enough inventory due to global supply chain problems. But now everything has changed. All of a sudden major retailers are feverishly canceling orders, and this would only make sense if a severe economic downturn was imminent.


John David Rainey, Walmart’s EVP and CFO, said it had cleared most summer inventory, was reducing exposure in electronics, home and sporting goods, and canceled “billions of dollars in orders” to realign inventories. He said, “Our actions in Q3 will allow us to make significant progress toward rationalizing absolute levels and mix, which will enable our stores to be well positioned ahead of the holiday season.”

It is extremely odd that Walmart would decide to do such a thing.

Recently I had an opportunity to stroll through a Walmart, and there were plenty of inventory holes.

So what would make them suddenly cancel “billions of dollars” in orders that they thought that they were going to need for the holiday season?

Perhaps some enterprising reporter will be willing to ask them such a question.

Meanwhile, we just learned that Target has also canceled “more than $1.5 billion” in orders…

Target said it had reduced its “inventory exposure in discretionary categories” throughout Q2 by canceling more than $1.5 billion of orders in these categories and marking down products.

Target is much smaller than Walmart is, and so for Target to cancel so many orders is a really big deal.

And it turns out that Kohl’s and Under Armour have also been canceling large numbers of orders as well…

Kohl’s has also pulled back on order receipts and increased promotions to get through an inventory glut.

“We have taken action to address inventory, including increasing promotions, being aggressive on clearing excess inventory and pulling back on receipts,” said Kohl’s CFO Jill Timm in a call with investors.

Under Armour also said it made some proactive cancellations due to supply chain constraints to ensure that “the right inventory was coming in at the right time,” said interim president and CEO Colin Browne in a call with investors.

These retailers are obviously scared that they will end up stuck with massive amounts of inventory that they cannot sell.

Do they believe that economic activity during the months ahead will be much lower than they originally anticipated?

One corporate executive that is actually publicly admitting that he believes that a recession is coming is FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam…

FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday that he believes a recession is impending for the global economy.

“I think so. But you know, these numbers, they don’t portend very well,” Subramaniam said in response to Cramer’s question of whether the economy is “going into a worldwide recession.”

The CEO’s pessimism came after FedEx missed estimates on revenue and earnings in its first quarter. The company also withdrew its full year guidance.

Sadly, he is right on target.

For months, I have been warning that the economic numbers were telling us that big trouble was on the way, and now everyone can see it.

But unlike the “Great Recession” of 2008 and 2009, this time we are also going to have to deal with raging inflation even as economic activity slows down all around us.

In fact, the Wall Street Journal is ominously warning that U.S. consumers “are set to pay even more this winter” as heating costs continue to soar to absolutely ridiculous levels…

U.S. utility customers, faced with some of their largest bills in years, are set to pay even more this winter as natural-gas prices continue to climb.

Natural-gas prices have more than doubled this year because of a global supply shortage made worse by the war in Ukraine, and they are expected to remain elevated for months as fuel is needed to light and heat homes during the winter. The supply crunch has made it substantially more expensive for utilities to purchase or produce power, and those costs are being passed on to customers.

The cost of living has been rising much faster than our paychecks have for quite some time now, and a lot more pain is on the horizon.

I really like how Brandon Smith recently summarized the current state of the U.S. economy…

A common refrain from people who are critical of alternative economists is that we have been predicting crisis for so long that “eventually we will be right.” These are generally people who don’t understand the nature of economic decline – It’s like an avalanche that builds over time, then breaks and quickly escalates as it flows down the mountain. What they don’t grasp is that they are in the middle of an economic collapse RIGHT NOW, and they just can’t see it because they have been acclimated to the presence of the snow and cold.

Economic decline is a process that takes many years, and while you might get an event like the market crash of 1929 or the crash of 2008, these moments of panic are nothing more than the wreckage left behind by the great wave of tumbling ice that everyone should have seen coming far in advance, but they refused.

That is so true.

We are already in the midst of a raging economic crisis, but things will get so much worse during the months and years to come.

Walmart, Target and other major retailers are working really hard to get prepared for what is coming.

Are you?

I hope so, because at this point it should be glaringly obvious to everyone that exceedingly challenging times are on the way.


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https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/stocks-sink-as-economic-worries-spike-4975505/

Stocks sink as economic worries spike

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By Jake Perez, Editor at LinkedIn News
Updated 2 hours ago


Stocks took a trouncing on Monday, with the Dow Jones sliding into a bear market and the S&P 500 falling to a new 2022 low. The turmoil reflects investors' concerns over a surging dollar — which can shrink the profits of U.S. multinationals — and central banks' efforts to fight inflation by hiking interest rates. The Dow shed 1.1%, a drop of more than 20% from its January peak; the S&P 500 fell about 1%. Wall Street's volatility follows jitters in the U.K., with the British pound crashing to a record low against the dollar before rebounding.


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A strong dollar is good for working Americans, yet bad for international companies that trade in foreign currencies. Why is that a problem for me?


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you buying right?


“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”

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Originally Posted by OldColdDawg
A strong dollar is good for working Americans, yet bad for international companies that trade in foreign currencies. Why is that a problem for me?

bro this stays the same, euro christmas trip about to be epic this year. gimme that strong dollar against the Euro so my fellow americans can go spread that that american exceptionalism we're known for!


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Trump economy:

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Biden regime:

[Linked Image from c.tenor.com]

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Try looking into what the word global means.


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Way to big of a concept for an itty bitty mind.

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Originally Posted by bonefish
Way to big of a concept for an itty bitty mind.
Too. You meant "TOO".

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'Obscene,' Says Sanders After CBO Reports Richest 1% Now Owns Over 1/3 of US Wealth

"In the richest country on Earth, the time is long overdue for us to create a government and an economy that works for all of us, not just the 1%."

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders reacted Wednesday to new government figures showing the wealthiest 1% of Americans now owns over one-third of the country's wealth by reasserting calls for systemic reforms to tackle the highest economic inequality of any major developed nation in the world.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Tuesday published Trends in the Distribution of Family Wealth, 1989 to 2019, a report revealing that while the total real wealth of U.S. families tripled over those 30 years, the growth was dramatically unequal.

"Families in the top 10% and in the top 1% of the distribution, in particular, saw their share of total wealth rise over the period," the report notes. "In 2019, families in the top 10% of the distribution held 72% of total wealth, and families in the top 1% of the distribution held more than one-third; families in the bottom half of the distribution held only 2% of total wealth."

In a statement, Sanders (I-Vt.) said that "this report confirms what we already know: The very rich are getting much, much richer while the middle class is falling further and further behind, and being forced to take on outrageous levels of debt."

"The obscene level of income and wealth inequality in America is a profoundly moral issue that we cannot continue to ignore or sweep under the rug," the two-time Democratic presidential candidate argued.



The CBO report also highlights the persistent racial wealth gap in the United States. In 2019, white families' median wealth was 6.5 times that of Black families, 5.5 times that of Hispanic families, and 2.7 times that of Asian and other families.

Additionally, the publication shows that by 2019, student loan debt was the largest component of total debt for families in the bottom 25%—more than their mortgage and credit card debt combined. Among Americans age 35 or younger, 60% of their debt burden was due to student loans.

President Joe Biden last month announced a plan to cancel $10,000 to $20,000 in federal student loan debt per borrower, depending upon income, a move that drew both praise and admonition from progressives like Sanders—who advocates canceling all educational debt and making all college tuition-free.

"A society cannot sustain itself when so few have so much while so many have so little," the democratic socialist asserted. "In the richest country on Earth, the time is long overdue for us to create a government and an economy that works for all of us, not just the 1%."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2...rts-richest-1-now-owns-over-13-us-wealth


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But when I get super rich I’ll want the government to work for me. So I’ll just vote against my own interests until I get into the 1%.

….the internal, subconscious mantra of the average, poor, GOP voter.


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Originally Posted by archbolddawg
Originally Posted by bonefish
Way to big of a concept for an itty bitty mind.
Too. You meant "TOO".


rofl The jokes write themselves sometimes.


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"oh no, home prices are falling, the dollar is stronger, saving accounts rates are increasing. this is terrible!!! whats next, americans are gonna expect us to actually follow through with the manufacturing plants we pledge to build in the US. how dare they!!!"

- Wall Street


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Lol Home prices the last two years have been rising at a rate never seen before. Ever!. There was no doubt the fed raising the prime would cause home prices to fall. That’s the point. You aren’t taking these GOPer scare tactics seriously are you?


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Where's the GOP scare tactic??

Of course home prices will fall -- they were outrageous. At least this time around we're not looking at a house of cards based on predatory lending.


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my concern is for two groups: the everyday americans with ARMs, and the everyday americans dealing with the sky high property tax.

the households with ARMs are getting smacked from both sides with the interest rate AND property tax rising. the households who are only dealing with the property tax side are still in a tough spot, because typically the banks will adjust their payments to make up for the escrow shortage. and on top of that, we all know the tax is gonna be slow as hell to lower, while their home value drops like a rock.

so for me, we need the fed to keep doing what they're doing because the trash reality is that homebuyers - no matter 1st time or 2nd, 3rd, etc - aren't even competing against other humans; they're competing against the algorithm. these property groups NEED to be reeled in, it just sucks that once again in order to reel in corporations, the first impacted are everyday americans.

again, i know its an unpopular opinion, but im glad the fed is raising the rates. what NEEDs to happen in combination with that is congress passing laws to make sure we expand residential zoning areas, ban industrial companies from developing near residential areas, and ban LLCs from purchasing homes in designated residential zoning areas.

because without that, then the Fed raising interest rates ends up ONLY affecting everyday americans.


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We must also think globally. What the fed does here also has effects internationally. I also agree with the fed and have the confidence they can suppress inflation. Existing home prices are coming down is a good sign it’s working. And getting large corporations out of residential new builds would make that market more affordable. Good idea Swish on getting big corp’s out of residential purchases that drives up prices more.


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That was well-said, Swish. I am generally one of the old school conservatives when it comes to free market (not the newer breed of corporate lackeys), and I can't help but think that these private equity groups are basically exploiting the dynamic and ruining the intent of what a free market should mean. They're unbridling the capitalism. It's like a locust effect. They ruined retail. They ruined beer (this one is a personal gripe). Now, they're ruining homes. It's like, which sector of the American Dream will they pick off and exploit next (the answer is bourbon)???

I'm with FATE in the fact the prices became unsustainable. No growth can happen at that pace without some sort of repercussion. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Now the prices are going to drop and the interest rates are going to be unsustainable.

Can't win as an individual.


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Good stuff -- you're a smart man.

I was thinking about ARMs recently and immediately thought "wait, why would anybody be making that choice the past few years?" I went and checked and saw that the percentage has been between about 3 and 8% since 2009. And there are still "experts" out there with their fancy math that advise to do so.

As for everything else from "trash reality" on... you hit the nail right on the head.


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Lol on the bourbon.

They'll never mess with my Mezcal, the Mexicans ain't havin' it.


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I don't know, man. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is getting into the business. If that isn't a four-horseman sign, I don't know what is.


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Guy Fieri and Sammy Hagar teamed up to produce "mezquila", tastes like someone added liquid smoke to tequila. Aaron Paul and Bryan Cranston put out Dos Hombres Mezcal. It's true to tradition and pretty good -- just way over-priced.

There are too many small-town maestro mezcaleros, and too many rules for production in Mexico, for it to go off the rails the way bourbon has.


I thought I met my one and only soulmate when I married my wife... I was wrong. Now all I hear is "Oh, lord he found a new Mezcal" every time I walk through the door with a new bottle. She knows because I walk through the door saying "come on in, I want you to meet my wife".

Not that you really needed or wanted to know all of that. 🤣


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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/business/national-debt.html

U.S. National Debt Tops $31 Trillion for First Time
America’s borrowing binge has long been viewed as sustainable because of historically low interest rates. But as rates rise, the nation’s fiscal woes are getting worse.

Alan RappeportJim Tankersley
By Alan Rappeport and Jim Tankersley
Oct. 4, 2022
WASHINGTON — America’s gross national debt exceeded $31 trillion for the first time on Tuesday, a grim financial milestone that arrived just as the nation’s long-term fiscal picture has darkened amid rising interest rates.

The breach of the threshold, which was revealed in a Treasury Department report, comes at an inopportune moment, as historically low interest rates are being replaced with higher borrowing costs as the Federal Reserve tries to combat rapid inflation. While record levels of government borrowing to fight the pandemic and finance tax cuts were once seen by some policymakers as affordable, those higher rates are making America’s debts more costly over time.

“So many of the concerns we’ve had about our growing debt path are starting to show themselves as we both grow our debt and grow our rates of interest,” said Michael A. Peterson, the chief executive officer of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which promotes deficit reduction. “Too many people were complacent about our debt path in part because rates were so low.”

The new figures come at a volatile economic moment, with investors veering between fears of a global recession and optimism that one may be avoided. On Tuesday, markets rallied close to 3 percent, extending gains from Monday and putting Wall Street on a more positive path after a brutal September. The rally stemmed in part from a government report that showed signs of some slowing in the labor market. Investors took that as a signal that the Fed’s interest rate increases, which have raised borrowing costs for companies, may soon begin to slow.

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Higher rates could add an additional $1 trillion to what the federal government spends on interest payments this decade, according to Peterson Foundation estimates. That is on top of the record $8.1 trillion in debt costs that the Congressional Budget Office projected in May. Expenditures on interest could exceed what the United States spends on national defense by 2029, if interest rates on public debt rise to be just one percentage point higher than what the C.B.O. estimated over the next few years.

The Fed, which slashed rates to near zero during the pandemic, has since begun raising them to try to tame the most rapid inflation in 40 years. Rates are now set in a range between 3 and 3.25 percent, and the central bank’s most recent projections saw them climbing to 4.6 percent by the end of next year — up from 3.8 percent in an earlier forecast.



Federal debt is not like a 30-year mortgage that is paid off at a fixed interest rate. The government is constantly issuing new debt, which effectively means its borrowing costs rise and fall along with interest rates.


The Biden Presidency
With midterm elections approaching, here’s where President Biden stands.
Defending Democracy: President Biden’s drive to buttress democracy at home and abroad has taken on more urgency by the persistent power of China, Russia and former President Donald J. Trump.
A Tricky Message: Even as he condemns Trumpism, Mr. Biden has taken pains to show that he understands that not all Republicans are what he calls extremist “MAGA Republicans.”
On the Campaign Trail: Fresh off a series of legislative victories, Mr. Biden is back campaigning. But his low approval ratings could complicate his efforts to help Democrats in the midterm elections.
Questions About 2024: Mr. Biden has said he plans to run for a second term, but at 79, his age has become an uncomfortable issue.
The C.B.O. warned about America’s mounting debt load in a report earlier this year, saying that investors could lose confidence in the government’s ability to repay what it owes. Those worries, the budget office said, could cause “interest rates to increase abruptly and inflation to spiral upward.”

Rate increases could cut short what has been a brief period of improvement for the nation’s fiscal picture as it relates to the economy as a whole. Both the C.B.O. and the White House have projected that the national debt, measured as a share of the size of the economy, will shrink slightly through the coming fiscal year before growing again in 2024. That is because the economy is expected to grow faster than the debt.

The $31 trillion threshold also poses a political problem for President Biden, who has pledged to put the United States on a more sustainable fiscal path and reduce federal budget deficits by $1 trillion over a decade. Deficits occur when the government spends more money than it takes in through tax revenue.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Mr. Biden’s policies have added nearly $5 trillion to deficits since he took office. That projection includes Mr. Biden’s signature $1.9 trillion economic stimulus bill, a variety of new congressionally approved spending initiatives and a student-loan debt forgiveness plan that is expected to cost taxpayers nearly $400 billion over 30 years.

White House budget officials estimated in August that the deficit would be just over $1 trillion for the 2022 fiscal year, which was nearly $400 billion less than they had originally forecast. Mr. Biden says those numbers are the product of his policies to stoke economic growth, like the American Rescue Plan.

“We brought down the deficit $350 billion the first year and nearly $1.5 trillion this year,” Mr. Biden told a Democratic National Committee event in Washington last month.

Those figures obscure the effects of the rescue plan, which was financed entirely with borrowed money. Much of the deficit reduction Mr. Biden is championing reflects the fact that both he and former President Donald J. Trump signed laws that borrowed heavily in order to mitigate the damage of the pandemic recession. The deficit has fallen in large part because policymakers did not pass another large round of pandemic aid this year.

Mr. Biden’s budget office now expects the deficit to rise higher than previously expected over the next three years, largely because of higher interest costs as a result of rising rates. In recent weeks, borrowing costs have climbed even higher than the White House expected, suggesting officials will need to revise their deficit expectations upward again.

“I don’t know where interest rates are going, but whatever you thought a year ago, you definitely have to revise that,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard economist and former top economic aide to President Barack Obama.

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“The deficit path is almost certainly too high,” given the rise in rates in recent weeks, Mr. Furman added. “We were sort of at the edge of ‘OK’ before, and we are past ‘OK’ now.”

In recent weeks, administration officials have walked a thin line on deficits. They have championed deficit-cutting moves — like the climate, health care and tax bill that Mr. Biden signed into law in August — as necessary complements to the Fed’s efforts to bring down inflation by raising interest rates. They have said Mr. Biden would be happy to sign further deficit cuts into law, in the form of tax increases on high earners and large corporations.

But the officials also say they are comfortable with the debt and deficit levels in the administration’s forecasts and do not see the nation as anywhere close to a fiscal crisis. They say the government’s inflation-adjusted interest costs — their preferred metric for the debt burden — remain historically low as a share of the economy. They say it would be wrong for Mr. Biden to shift fiscal priorities in response to rising interest rates.

“Our budgets have been heavily fiscally responsible, and they build a very compelling architecture toward critical investments and fiscal responsibility,” Jared Bernstein, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview. “So it would be a mistake to overtorque in reaction to current events.”

Top administration officials have said since Mr. Biden took office that plans for expensive investments were fiscally responsible because interest rates were so low. At her confirmation hearing last year, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen pointed to rock-bottom borrowing costs as justification for ambitious spending proposals and stimulus measures.

“Neither the president-elect, nor I, propose this relief package without an appreciation for the country’s debt burden,” Ms. Yellen said. “But right now, with interest rates at historic lows, the smartest thing we can do is act big.”

Critics of the Biden administration’s spending initiatives have warned that a reliance on low interest rates to justify expansionary policies could come back to bite the United States economy, as the debt burden mounts.

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Brian Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, said the United States was unwise to make long-term debt commitments based on short-term, adjustable interest rates. Adding new debt, he said, as interest rates rise would be pouring fuel on a fiscal fire.

“Basically, Washington has engaged in a long-term debt spree and been fortunate to be bailed out by low interest rates up to this point,” Mr. Riedl said. “But the Treasury never locked in those low rates long term, and now rising rates may collide with that escalating debt with horribly expensive results.”


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That's awesome. I had a bad experience with the stuff in 2006 and haven't been able to stomach it since, unfortunately...


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[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]


Some day, following the example of the United States of America, there will be a United States of Europe.

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https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/imfs-economic-outlook-gets-gloomier-5461116/

IMF's economic outlook gets gloomier

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By Jessy Bains, Editor at LinkedIn News
Updated 7 hours ago


The International Monetary Fund is warning the “worst is yet to come” for the global economy. It predicts growth will slow to 2.7% in 2023 – 0.2 percentage points lower than its previous forecast – and “will feel like a recession” for many. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an economic slowdown in China and decades-high inflation are expected to stunt growth. Global inflation is forecasted to peak at 8.8% in late 2022 and remain elevated longer than expected until coming down to 6.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024.

The IMF's GDP estimate for 2023 remains steady at 3.2% for 2022.


"Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic."

"Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024."

“We estimate that countries accounting for about one-third of the world economy will experience at least two consecutive quarters of contraction this or next year..." - IMF Managing director Kristina Georgieva


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https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/inflation-stays-hot-in-september-6031098/

Inflation stays hot in September

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By Cate Chapman, Editor at LinkedIn News
Updated 11 minutes ago


Prices excluding energy and food hit a new four-decade high in September, pointing to another jumbo rate increase by the Federal Reserve as it moves to beat back inflation. While the overall consumer-price index moderated only slightly to an annual increase of 8.2%, from 8.3% in August, the so-called core index, which excludes prices for more volatile items such as gas and groceries, notched a 6.6% increase from a year earlier — the fastest pace of inflation since 1982, according to the Labor Department. Overall, prices rises continued to soar past economists' expectations.

On a month-to-basis, overall inflation accelerated to 0.4%, from 0.1% in August, while core prices maintained a 0.6% increase.
Rents rose 0.8% in the month, the largest increase since June 1990.
The Fed, which has lifted borrowing costs by three-quarters of a percentage point at each of its last three meetings, is next set to decide rates in November.


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At least you figured out it's a global issue..... for a minute.


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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Wow I didn't realize the recession was over...

[Linked Image from thelibertydaily.com]

Huh? Benedict Biden Says “Our Economy Is Strong as Hell” While Eating Ice Cream
By J.D. Rucker • Oct. 15, 2022

Joe Biden has dementia, doesn’t understand economics, and loves ice cream. Those are the takeaways from his ludicrous answer to a question from a reporter about whether he’s concerned about the U.S. dollar.

“I’m not concerned about the strengths of the dollar,” he said. “I’m concerned about the rest of the rest of the world. Does that make sense?”

Actually, it does make sense for a globalist pawn to say he cares more about the rest of the world than the country he’s supposedly leading, but that’s not what he means. He elaborated, and while he sounded more lucid than usual, the words themselves were ludicrous.

“Our economy is strong as hell, the internals,” he said. “Inflation is worldwide, worse off everywhere else than it is in the United States. So the problem is lack of economic growth and sound policy in other countries, not so much ours.”

Watch:



BIDEN, eating ice cream: "Our economy is strong as hell"

Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who has been a sharp critic of Biden’s economy since launching her campaign, blamed it on the ice cream.

Kari Lake: Poor guy got a brain freeze.

Oh, if only it were just brain freeze.

As long as the Biden-Harris regime refuses to acknowledge there are problems they should deal with other than climate change and arming Ukraine, we’ll continue to hear from them about how strong the economy is. It’s not okay.

https://thelibertydaily.com/huh-ben...s-strong-as-hell-while-eating-ice-cream/

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When someone thinks the strength of an economy is only dictated by a couple of its components it's they that lack comprehension.


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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Originally Posted by PitDAWG
When someone thinks the strength of an economy is only dictated by a couple of its components it's they that lack comprehension.


It seems like many people only want to listen to politicians and government employees. Economists everywhere are screaming that we are going into a recession, almost every CEO is planning for it, and most common sense people are preparing for it.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-now-expect-a-recession-job-losses-by-next-year-11665859869
Economists Now Expect a Recession, Job Losses by Next Year


https://www.npr.org/2022/10/14/1128832571/economy-recession-downturn-jpmorgan-inflation-fed

It seems almost impossible to find one who doesn't foresee a global downturn, with 98% of chief executives in the survey gearing up for a recession in the United States, and 99% prepping for one in Europe.

CEO confidence has now eroded to lows last seen during the Great Recession, the survey found.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/how-to-prepare-for-a-recession.html
76% of adults are making lifestyle changes to prepare for a potential recession


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