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From what I have read. DW is in the building and according to Berry is on schedule to return.

Regarding "rust" Quincy gave his take in the video.

I happen to agree with him.

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You can check out the link to watch the videos.

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Browns Rookie Stock Watch: Stock up on Martin Emerson, stock down on Perrion Winfrey
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Cory Kinnan
November 4, 2022 11:17 am ET

The Cleveland Browns are on their bye week this weekend, so this is a good time to re-evaluate the roster and take a look back at the season. We start that process today by seeing how the 2022 NFL Draft class has fared thus far through their rookie seasons.

Some have started the majority of games, some have hardly played at all, and some are just now ramping up their snap counts as they have been eased into their transition. How have these rookies handled their transition from the college game to the NFL level? We take a look here with this Browns’ rookie stock watch.



CB Martin Emerson: Stock up
Cleveland Browns Martin Emerson Jr.
Cleveland Browns cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)

The Browns could not have dreamt about this amount of production out of their third round rookie at this point through his first season. Emerson saw starting snaps when the Browns came out in nickel from day-one due to the injury to Greedy Williams and has been nothing but a solid performer.

He is a stiffer cornerback who can get routed up a bit by more agile, and sharp route runners, but Emerson has proven to be strong at the catch point and a solid open-field tackler. He was glued to Tee Higgins all game on Monday Night Football and came downhill to stick ball carriers in space with frequency.

With the injury to Denzel Ward, Emerson has had a lot on his plate early in his career, and he is handling it like a seasoned veteran.




DE Alex Wright: Stock Neutral
Cleveland Browns Alex Wright
Cleveland Browns Alex Wright. (Winslow Townson/AP Images for Panini)

It has been difficult to get a full grip on Alex Wright’s situation in 2022. A young player out of a Group of Five school at UAB was drafted for the length and tools he possesses. The expectation was that it may take him some time to ramp up to the speed of the NFL game.

However, with the injury to Jadeveon Clowney in Week 2 that has hampered him all season, Wright was thrust into the starting role very early in his career with the Browns. And he has expectedly taken his lumps along the way. He has. however, gotten better every game through the first eight games of his rookie season.

Wright has been a strong run defender who has yet to get home as a pass rusher. The expectation is that he will still take over as the starter across from Myles Garrett after Clowney’s contract expires this year. It is important to stress, however, that a player of Wright’s age, and with the tools of Wright, is drafted with their ceiling in mind.

And he has yet to get close to that ceiling.



WR David Bell: Stock Neutral
Cleveland Browns David Bell
Cleveland Browns wide receiver David Bell. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

The Browns have eased Bell into action, but he has recently been getting the third-most snaps of any wide receiver on the roster. And judging his body of work today, Bell has been about exactly what was anticipated when he was drafted.

He is not an athletic specimen, but he is going to be dependable when called upon. Bell has caught everything thrown his way, even if his targets have been sparing. He may see more targets when the Browns spread the ball out a bit more heavily in three weeks, but for now, he has been what was imagined coming into the season.

Predominantly a slot who will motion in-line to give faux tight end looks, the majority of Bell’s targets have been over the middle of the field. This will continue to be the case throughout his career.

Bell has met the status quo. He has not done anything to blow the doors off of FirstEnergy Stadium, but he has not done anything to indicate the game is too big for him.


DT Perrion Winfrey: Stock Down
Cleveland Browns Perrion Winfrey
Cleveland Browns defensive tackle Perrion Winfrey. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Perrion Winfrey cannot find the field with frequency despite being a member of the league’s worst defensive tackle room. He has been in the doghouse on multiple occasions already as a rookie, and when he is on the field it is easy to spot blunders on his tape.

For someone as built and explosive as Winfrey, the hopes were high. He fell to the fourth round for a reason, but there were reasons to hope he may turn his mindset around once he got into an NFL building. Yet he is getting out-snapped by Tommy Togiai and even his teammate at Oklahoma Isaiah Thomas in recent weeks.

The Browns opted for a three-man rotation in their defensive tackle unit against the Cincinnati Bengals, and it may have been for the better. It, however, is not a great sign that Winfrey is inactive eight weeks into the season in this room.


K Cade York: Stock Down
Cleveland Browns Cade York
Cleveland Browns place kicker Cade York. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports

When a team drafts a kicker, even in the seventh round, he better live up to that hype from day-one. York was drafted in the fourth round.

While York has had a good deal of highs, including a game-winner in Week 1 and a long shot to end the half this past Monday night, it has been tough sledding for the fourth round pick. While he has had two long attempts blocked, York’s performance was a critical factor in a Week 5 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Kicking in Cleveland is no joke, and the draft capital the Browns used on York will give him the luxury of an extended leash. At this point, however, York is showing why it is quite a bad practice to draft special teamers.


RB Jerome Ford: Stock Neutral
Cleveland Browns Jerome Ford
Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford [Bob Self/Florida Times-Union]

Former Cincinnati running back Jerome Ford has been on Injured Reserve since the beginning of October. And before that was only a special teamer, specifically a kick returner.
Like other rookies on this team, the sample size for Ford is not substantial enough to change any prior opinions made on the running back. His selection was for well after 2022 as both Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson are likely heading out the door in free agency.

But today, there is no body of work to judge.


WR Michael Woods II: Stock Neutral
Cleveland Browns Michael Woods II
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Michael Woods II. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Michael Woods II missed all of training camp but dodged going on Injured Reserve. He has been inactive for most of the season but has recently seen the field over the past three weeks.

His sample size, however, is not big enough to make a judgment call on. As a sixth round pick, this is a good thing for the Browns that they have not been forced to thrust rookies on the field well before they are ready offensively.

For now, we hold at neutral.


DE Isaiah Thomas: Stock up
Cleveland Browns Isaiah Thomas
Cleveland Browns defensive end Isaiah Thomas. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

This past draft cycle, I graded Isaiah Thomas as an early day-three candidate. He fell into the Browns’ lap in the seventh round and has already exceeded his draft slot. His snaps are ramping up, and he is earning and deserving every single snap he sees on gamedays.

This week he even came away with his first career sack as he beat Bengals’ left tackle, Jonah Williams, with a nasty chop/rip. He deserves the snaps he is seeing over Winfrey and veteran Isaac Rochell and deserves to keep those snaps even when Chase Winovich returns from Injured Reserve.

A run defender who is willing to do the dirty work, and a pass rusher with length and savvy, the Browns have a solid rotational piece in Thomas.

Stock all the way up on Thomas.



OL Dawson Deaton: Stock Neutral
Cleveland Browns Dawson Deaton
Cleveland Browns guard Dawson Deaton. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Deaton suffered a season-ending injury in training camp and has not played in 2022.


https://brownswire.usatoday.com/lis...medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter

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No offense has had more redzone opportunities than Browns
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Cory Kinnan
November 5, 2022 10:33 am ET
The Cleveland Browns, led by head coach Kevin Stefanski, is currently graded as the sixth-most efficient offense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They boast a top-10 passing attack while carrying the top rushing attack in the league. To throw another impressive stat in there as well, no offense has been in the redzone more than the Browns.

According to SI’s John Shipley, the Browns have made 31 trips to the redzone in 2022, which is one more than the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Browns are also converting 61.3 percent of those drives into touchdowns as well, ranking them 11th in the league in redzone conversion rate.


Buy Browns Tickets
And this is all with a backup quarterback.

This Cleveland offense is one of the best in the league. One could argue they need to convert chances in the redzone into touchdowns at a bit of a higher rate, but this is good news as they continue to look to save their season as the Miami Dolphins are on deck after the bye week.

https://brownswire.usatoday.com/202...medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter



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j/c...


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Just don't set yourself up for disappointment. Thinking an NFL QB whom hasn't taken a snap in almost two years in an actual game will look the same right away as he did before is a leap of faith of epic proportions. You're a long time fan of the game. Are you telling me you haven't seen rusty QB's coming back from missing even far less time that watson has?


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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Great news. This will certainly help.



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Check out where Myles is in both double teams and win rate. Amazing! I feel he is actually underappreciated by some of our fans.


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I expect some impact but not radical.

This situation is in many ways unique. Most times it is injury related. When that is the case a lot goes into rehab. It takes most of the time just to go through that.

He banked a lot of reps before the suspension. He has been able to return to the facility. He has had time to stay in shape and study. He will get split reps in practice as his return date moves forward.

I know nothing simulates game speed. And the first couple games will be getting used that hyper speed.

At the same time. Football has been his life. There is a lot of muscle memory. He has been a big time player in college and the pros. I don't think that frame of reference disappears.

I have thought about "the rust argument." Honestly I don't really know. And I don't think any of us can really say how he will react at first.

In any case whatever lag time exists. I don't think it will last long.

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j/c:






Getting healthy (hopefully).


Tackles are tackles.
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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Check out where Myles is in both double teams and win rate. Amazing! I feel he is actually underappreciated by some of our fans.


Garrett is amazing. The win rate is even more impressive given the shoulder injury from the accident.

Also, Hutchinson getting doubled that much as a rookie is crazy as well. Obviously he isn't winning as many, but teams still respect him a lot to double that much.

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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Check out where Myles is in both double teams and win rate. Amazing! I feel he is actually underappreciated by some of our fans.


Garrett is amazing. The win rate is even more impressive given the shoulder injury from the accident.

Also, Hutchinson getting doubled that much as a rookie is crazy as well. Obviously he isn't winning as many, but teams still respect him a lot to double that much.

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re: Ward.

Hopes, prayers and fingers crossed for his sustained health (especially no more concussions), but why do I get the feeling we should be waiting for another extended absence from the field?

Hope I'm wrong.

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I don't know why you expect it but I know why I do. After your first concussion you are more prone to another one. After your second concussion you are more prone to your third one. And so on, and so on.


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Check out where Myles is in both double teams and win rate. Amazing! I feel he is actually underappreciated by some of our fans.


Wow! Garrett and Parsons are clearly the class of the field...


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No offense haz been in the RED zone more than the Brownz?

hearing that,.. I put the blame s@uarely on J.Brissett's negativez on pazzing drop backz... that the Browns aren't 4-4 or better.
because ...
3 straight games it was a big negative when the Browns would get in the Red zone and try to throw.


Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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stock neutral seems more depressing than either of the other 2 options. ( up or down)


Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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Originally Posted by PitDAWG
I don't know why you expect it but I know why I do. After your first concussion you are more prone to another one. After your second concussion you are more prone to your third one. And so on, and so on.

I agree. The guy is frail, and I don't mean that as a dig. For whatever reason the guy is susceptible to brain injury. Once that starts to happen the odds are it will only get worse. Unless the guy decides to avoid contact at all costs for self preservation purposes, he probably needs to retire from the game.


If everybody had like minds, we would never learn.

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I love talking football, but there is so much negativity on this board. Positive news is turned into doom and gloom.

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This sucks.



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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
I love talking football, but there is so much negativity on this board. Positive news is turned into doom and gloom.

Yes, it's a terrible thing that people mention the fact that after your first concussion it's easier to get the second one and so on. Facts that don't blow sunshine up your ass are frowned upon.


Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.

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You know my love will Not Fade Away.........


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Is he a returner?

I liked having Herb on the team. He flashed on ST and I call him Tarlek


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This is player news to a degree. I didn't want to start a Myles thread.

Myles Garrett is real good.


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VERS. you are the highest on KS on this board.

but you put the stat on the thread that the Browns are #1 in red zone trips but #11 in touchdowns.

That is a negative that has to be addressed. And this is an offensive issue that he is struggling with.

#1 RZP should not lead to #1 TD/RZP but we should be near the top 8.

Also if we are getting into the RZ as proficient as the stat says, then why are we not taking points when analytics show that we should be back in the red zone again.

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Ask 888 and that crew.

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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Ask 888 and that crew.

But I asked you.

Most of us like KS and want him to succeed. But we are in year 3 and we have expectations that are not being met.
Many of us have brought up things that need to be addressed to be a better overall team.

The one thread is "Kevin Stefanski" I may be mistaken but I do not recall anyone calling for his head. Examples were sighted and the worst thing that I saw posted was that he was a slightly below average HC, that has not showed he was anywhere above average as a HC. This has more to do with results than personal agendas.

I think many on the DT.N agree with this sentiment. We want KS to get better. Not get fired.

If I am wrong I do apologize, but we all see the same boards.

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Ask a challenging question and the poster who appointed himself most knowledgeable football mind on DT won't like it. You asked a legit question in response to something the person posted, now he's throwing his toys out of his pram and once more naming posters he claims to have on ignore and won't engage with.

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There is always room for improvement.

What is important is having a HC that understands that. That has the ability to look in the mirror and say "how can I improve."

It is relative to keep in mind this is his third year. He was dealt a rough hand.

Last year was a mess at quarterback.

This year the defense has been the main problem. Adjustments have been made. The last two games have shown improvement.

The rest of this season will be interesting.

I like KS's approach. IMO he has the right make up for head coach.


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You ignored all the positive tweets and concentrated on the only negative. I read your comments on the Stefanski thread. I even responded to you on that thread. You chose not to reply there. We see things differently. That's fine w/me. I am not going to argue about it. I'll discuss, but I won't try to change anyone's mind. Your opinions line up w/888 and that group of posters. Again......that's fine. You can talk w/them about all of Stefanski's faults and ignore the rest. Unlike those guys, I don't need others to agree w/me. Opinions are free.

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Concerning Cyril Grayson...he's another "track guy" but he has hands and the ability to actually be a deep threat. He did run the 40 in 4.33 at the LSU Pro Day.

Wonder if Schwartz might be a bit worried..?





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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
You ignored all the positive tweets and concentrated on the only negative. I read your comments on the Stefanski thread. I even responded to you on that thread. You chose not to reply there. We see things differently. That's fine w/me. I am not going to argue about it. I'll discuss, but I won't try to change anyone's mind. Your opinions line up w/888 and that group of posters. Again......that's fine. You can talk w/them about all of Stefanski's faults and ignore the rest. Unlike those guys, I don't need others to agree w/me. Opinions are free.

My point was made by another poster on that thread.
My issue, and not to start an argument...........

You say KS is a great HC. Your words.

Everyone else except Bone (I believe, but could be wrong) likes Stefanski but would like to see improvement in some key game management situations.
Am I wrong that your point is that he is a great HC and it will be proven when DW gets back?

Just trying to connect the dots because my last post pointed out a specific argument that you dismissed with "talk to mg888 & that crew."

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just to be clear. it is not an opinion that KS needs to improve in some key game management situations. That is a fact.

It is opinion that a coach who took a step back in year 2, and is 3-5 in year 3 is an above average head coach.

Just so you understand where I am coming from. You dismiss my facts as opinion, but impose your opinions as facts.

Again if things continue to progress in the manner the Bengals game did, then KS is making the adjustments many on this board would like to see. If he does not, it doesn't matter who the QB is, we will not get to the level we would like to be at.

good day sir.

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I am simply disagreeing w/you about when to go for it and when to kick a FG or punt the ball. That is not me saying he is a "great coach." It's me saying that the analytical people that the Browns hire to determine that data are far more trustworthy [in my mind] than some fans on a message board. People are ignoring things to make their argument. They are not mentioning the point differential, the possibility of a missed/blocked kick, the fact that it's better to pin a team inside the 5 yard line instead of kicking off, etc. They are ignoring other analytical analogies, such as the fact that basketball teams shoot a higher percentage from 2 than 3, but continue to shoot up 3s because the analytics say that it helps you win games. We are ignoring that you have to have 3 successful drives and make three successful FGs in order to score more than just one TD and a successful PAT.

Read this article from ESPN on the subject. It might help educate you and others. I suggest clicking on the link so you can see the charts and graphs.


NFL game management cheat sheet: When to punt, go for it or kick field goal on fourth downs, plus 2-point conversion recommendations
Jan 15, 2022
Seth Walder
ESPN Analytics

NFL coaches make tough fourth-down and 2-point conversion decisions on every game day. Quantitative analysis can inform those decisions, both for those making calls on the sideline and fans evaluating their coach's decision-making.

So what do analytics tell us about these choices? Well, it's complicated. Is there a cheat sheet that could help show the correct decisions? No and yes.



There is not a simple answer because the permutations of game-management decisions in football are endless. That's why it's hard! In order to determine the correct decision on a fourth down, ESPN's model -- created by ESPN sports data scientist Brian Burke -- accounts for score, time remaining in the game, distance to sticks, yardline, number of timeouts each team has remaining, each team's chance to win entering the game and the relative strength of the offense and defense in question.

There are far too many possibilities to fit on a single chart to cover them all, but we can still provide a cheat sheet for the most likely scenarios. The following represents a guide to ESPN's decision analysis recommendations based on typical situations. Those are when teams are still in the point maximization phase of the game. Think of it this way: A normal game in the first half or even early in the third quarter, where teams are within two scores of each other.

Note that in any specific game, ESPN's recommendations might deviate from this chart even early because one team entered as a major underdog or there is a severe offense/defense mismatch between the two teams playing. Late in the game, the circumstances can cause recommendations that are significantly different, of course. (Updated on Jan. 16, 2022, with a new 2-point conversion chart.)

Jump to: 2-point conversion decisions


Fourth-down advice
Let's start with what to do on fourth downs. The chart below details the recommended decision (go, field goal attempt or punt) in a typical situation given a specific yard line and distance to first down:


The first thing you might notice when looking at this chart is that there is a lot more "go" area than expected. Indeed, ESPN's model is more aggressive on fourth downs than the average coach. In fact, our model recommends a go on fourth-and-1 in typical situations anywhere on the field. There are a few major reasons for the preference toward go:

1. The value of possession. Coaches have long been too conservative on fourth down, but particularly in the modern era when offenses are so explosive, possession significantly outweighs field position in terms of importance. A fourth-down conversion attempt might or might not fail, but a punt always turns the ball over to the other team.

2. There are two factors for why the model often prefers going for it to a field goal in more situations than most fans would expect:

First, it recognizes opting for a field goal attempt rather than a guaranteed three points. Field goals don't always go in.

Second, while touchdowns are worth seven points and field goals are worth three, both require kicking the ball to the opponent afterward. The possession and field position for the opponent is worth roughly one expected point in favor of the opponent. Once we consider the opposing kickoff, we can think of touchdowns being worth roughly six points and field goals worth roughly two to the game's margin. Thinking about scoring this way shows the relative value of a touchdown compared to a field goal is higher than you might think.

3. Close to the goal-line failures still result in putting opponents in bad starting field position.

How the model works
In comparing a punt vs. a fourth-down attempt, ESPN's model considers the win probability expected given a fourth-down success and fourth-down failure, and weighs those by the expected conversion rate of that fourth down. (The expected conversion rate is determined by league averages in similar circumstances and adjusted based on the strength of the offense and defense.) That produces an overall expected win probability given a fourth-down attempt, which can be compared to an expected win probability given a punt. The higher win probability is the recommendation.

Another way to look at these decisions is to look at what is called the "breakeven rate" of conversion. Given a particular situation and the win probabilities associated with it, the model can produce the minimum conversion rate to justify going for it. Here's an example of what that output looks like on an extreme error from Saints coach Sean Payton this season:


What about factors the model doesn't consider?
There are areas outside the purview of the model that a coach might take into account in his or her decision-making. These factors -- such as weather, injuries and matchup advantages or disadvantages -- are important and can shift a decision. However, it's important that if coaches want to deviate from base rates to make their decisions, they do so in both directions.

That means as often as we hear a coach using matchup factors to justify being more conservative than a model suggests, we ought to hear them using matchup factors to be more aggressive than a model suggests.

The aforementioned breakeven rate can be a guide here and can illustrate the clarity or strength of a recommendation. If the breakeven rate is within a couple of percentage points of the expected conversion rate in either direction, it's fair to grant some leeway to a coach considering additional factors. But if, say, a particular situation has a 40% breakeven rate and a team has a 60% expected conversion rate, it would hard to justify not going for it.


2-point conversion decisions
These decisions can also swing a game, so when should a coach go for two? It's actually not even clear that's the right question. The point expectancy for a PAT (93.7% since 2015) and 2-point conversion (48.1% in same span, but worth double) are so close that we should think of either option as an active choice.

But still, we'll answer the question: When should a coach go for two? We'll break down each score where there's frequently a question. Keep in mind three things:

It's really the combination of score and time remaining (including timeouts!) that determines whether or not a team should go for two. Note the time specifications within each score breakdown.

There are large swaths of score/time combinations in which a reasonable argument for either PAT or going for two can be made, and we will generally ignore those. Scores not included in the write-up below generally fit in this category, with their recommendations either close to the breakeven point or swinging narrowly between PAT and 2-point attempt.

Like with fourth downs, these are typical recommendations. Recommendations in a specific game might be different based on one team entering as, say, a heavy favorite or a mismatch between an offense and defense (that makes a conversion more or less likely).

In addition, because the breakeven point of a 2-point attempt is often right on a knife's edge with the expected conversion rate, small or specific changes in time can also swing a particular recommendation. As a result, the following should be taken as general descriptions of our model's preferences.

When to go for two: Score at time of decision immediately following touchdown

The chart above indicates the conversion probability required to justify going for 2 given score and time remaining in the game. The dotted line is at 48% -- a typical conversion rate on 2-point plays. When the red line is below that dotted line, it is advisable to go for 2.

Down two points: You can either have a chance to be tied or definitely be losing, so which would you prefer? If someone says "don't chase points" in this scenario, be sure to never listen to his/her game management advice. Very early in a game, it's fine to kick a PAT in these spots, but going for two should not be criticized.

Down four points: It's better to go for two here, starting with roughly 8-9 minutes or less in the fourth quarter. Here's how you can think about it: Imagine you're down three points driving late in the fourth quarter, but you knew the result of overtime in advance. It would change how you played. If you knew you were going to win in OT, you could kick a field goal to win. But if you knew you were going to lose, you'd go for it on fourth downs and try to score a touchdown.

Going for two down four points is the equivalent to finding out the result of OT in advance. It's almost a 50/50, just like overtime. And it lets you know if you need to score a field goal or touchdown on the next drive.

Down five points: Either way is acceptable in the first half. Go for two in the second half to attempt to be down only a field goal.

Down eight points: Go for two starting roughly midway through the third quarter. I wrote an entire article on this one but the abridged version is this: If you go for two now and convert, you can kick a PAT on the next touchdown and take the lead. If you go for two now and fail, you can go for two again on the next touchdown and have a chance to tie. It's easier to convert once than to fail twice.

Down nine points: This actually is not so clear cut. Logically, it makes sense to go for two late, though the advantage is smaller than you might think. The idea is to find out now if you are down one score or two scores rather than finding out later, because it can affect your future decision-making. Our win probability model doesn't always see it this way, however. If you were asking me: I'd go for two, but the advantage gained is certainly small.

Down 10 points: This can go either way for much of the game -- for instance, a PAT allows you to take the lead with another field goal and touchdown -- but with roughly 8-9 minutes left in the game, going for two is strongly preferable because there are limited possessions left. At that point, the chance of being down eight -- which gives the possibility of tying through a touchdown and 2-point conversion -- is clearly preferable to being down nine.

EDITOR'S PICKS

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The Bills should have gone for 2 twice Sunday: How it cost them and why it matters so much
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Down 11 points: Go for two starting roughly around the beginning of the fourth quarter. This is the same situation as down four, with a touchdown added on top.

Down 12 points: Consider going for 2 very late in the game; it's essentially the down-9 scenario with a field goal added on top.

Down 13 points: Late in the game, it can be advisable to go for 2 in order to keep open the possibility of a tie via a field goal, touchdown and 2-point conversion.

Down 15 points: Go for two in the second half. This is the down-eight scenario with a touchdown added.

OK, so what about when to go for two when you're winning?

Up one point: In the second half, it is advisable to go for 2 in order to have a chance at being up a field goal.

Up four points: In the final few minutes of the game, it's usually better to go for 2 to create the possibility of a tie if your opponent scores a touchdown and misses the PAT.

Up five points: Go for two in the second half to be up a touchdown.


Up 12 points: It's best to try to go up two touchdowns later in the game.

Here are two more situations in which a coach might go for two:

Down one point: This generally comes up when a team scores late in the fourth quarter and considers going for two to win rather than the PAT to tie. Usually, it still is better to kick the PAT because if the team converts a 2-point play, that will encourage unbridled aggression from the opponent. It is acceptable to go for two when the opponent cannot realistically mount a FG drive on the ensuing possession, like when there are, say, less than 20 seconds remaining.

Up seven points: This is essentially the inverse of the down-nine scenario. And again, logically it makes sense to kick the PAT to not let an opponent know if it is down one score or two. There are times, however, when the model disagrees, so I'd have a hard time faulting a coach for either choice.


https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...-plus-2-point-conversion-recommendations

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is that an answer?

I ignore it because it is smoke and mirrors. just like the statistics you use in your arguments.

Is it true that you believe KS is a great HC?
also. is it Not because of what he has done, but because DW will prove it?

This is what I want to know?

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You're looking for a fight. I surrender. You win.

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VERS
more like answers.

I just asked you point blank questions and again you won't answer.

That is sad coming from someone with so much knowledge to distribute on this board that you will not answer a simple question.

VERS I do apologize for making a simple discussion uncomfortable.

SORRY

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Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Down 12 points: Consider going for 2 very late in the game; it's essentially the down-9 scenario with a field goal added on top.

Down 13 points: Late in the game, it can be advisable to go for 2 in order to keep open the possibility of a tie via a field goal, touchdown and 2-point conversion.

Down 15 points: Go for two in the second half. This is the down-eight scenario with a touchdown added.

How does this dude skip right over one of the most evident, and somehow least-argued scenarios??

You should ALWAYS go for two when down by 14. It improves your odds of winning by nearly 50%.

Yet hardly anybody does it.

Why? Because of the psychological effect of possibly deflating a team who is finally gaining momentum. Or a coach that may be afraid that a failure may put his ass on the line.

Belichick was the first coach to ever do this (go for two down 14)... with your Cleveland Browns in 1994. Nobody did it for another seven years. I've also watched him wave it off, in a game where his team (Patriots) were painting themselves into corners with constant mistakes; he wasn't going to put them behind the eight-ball with a failure as he seemed happy to just see them string together a drive without self-destructing.


Football isn't played with a slide rule. If it were, we wouldn't even need coaches.


HERE WE GO BROWNIES! HERE WE GO!!
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Haha Herb Miller is our yo-yo man this year


"First down inside the 10. A score here will put us in the Super Bowl. Cooper is far to the left as Njoku settles into the slot. Moore is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Ford are split in the backfield as Watson takes the snap ... Here we go."
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