Pythagorean Wins: Record Projections for Next Year - 05/31/13 04:16 AM
Had a post about this in the predict the Browns record thread, so here is one for the whole league.
http://www.grantland.com/story...-best-nfl-stats
Cliffs:
The theory is this- Points For ^ 2.37 / (Points For ^ 2.37 + Points Against ^ 2.37) = Expected win percentage
So, based on last years point differentials and the table which shows the average regression to the mean for teams that over/underperformed their win totals here are the very, very rough, devoid of any other context predictions for this year:
AFCE
Patriots 12-4
Dolphins 7-9
Bills 6-10
Jets 5-11
AFCN
Bengals 10-6
Ravens 9-7
Steelers 9-7
Browns 7-9
AFCS
Texans 10-6
Colts 8-8
Titans 4-12
Jaguars 4-12
AFCW
Broncos 12-4
Chargers 9-7
Raiders 4-12
Chiefs 2-14
NFCE
Giants 11-5
Redskins 9-7
Cowboys 7-9
Eagles 4-12
NFCN
Bears 11-5
Packers 10-6
Vikings 8-8
Detroit 6-10
NFCS
Falcons 11-5
Saints 9-7
Buccaneers 8-8
Panthers 8-8
NFCW
Seahawks 13-3
Niners 11-5
Rams 7-9
Cardinals 5-11
The biggest wild card will probably be the Colts, who were one of the luckiest teams in history last year regarding win total.
http://www.grantland.com/story...-best-nfl-stats
Cliffs:
The theory is this- Points For ^ 2.37 / (Points For ^ 2.37 + Points Against ^ 2.37) = Expected win percentage
So, based on last years point differentials and the table which shows the average regression to the mean for teams that over/underperformed their win totals here are the very, very rough, devoid of any other context predictions for this year:
AFCE
Patriots 12-4
Dolphins 7-9
Bills 6-10
Jets 5-11
AFCN
Bengals 10-6
Ravens 9-7
Steelers 9-7
Browns 7-9
AFCS
Texans 10-6
Colts 8-8
Titans 4-12
Jaguars 4-12
AFCW
Broncos 12-4
Chargers 9-7
Raiders 4-12
Chiefs 2-14
NFCE
Giants 11-5
Redskins 9-7
Cowboys 7-9
Eagles 4-12
NFCN
Bears 11-5
Packers 10-6
Vikings 8-8
Detroit 6-10
NFCS
Falcons 11-5
Saints 9-7
Buccaneers 8-8
Panthers 8-8
NFCW
Seahawks 13-3
Niners 11-5
Rams 7-9
Cardinals 5-11
The biggest wild card will probably be the Colts, who were one of the luckiest teams in history last year regarding win total.