Interesting how the aftermath of "The Trade" is spun by the media.

The first pass was the Giant's got robbed. Dorsey is a genius. The Browns are favorites to win the AFC North. The Browns are Super Bowl contenders. The Browns are the new "America's team". Best backfield in football. A fantasy team.
=======================================================

Now the crud comes. Freddie will have his hands full. Not enough balls to go around for Landry and Beckham. How is a first year head coach going to manage the ego's? OBJ wants his contract re-negotiated. Not enough balls to go around. How can Hunt and Duke exist together?

Oh so many problems. Poor poor Freddie.

PLEASE. Give me all the those problems. It was so entertaining watching Cody Kessler and DeShon Kizer.

Winning cures all evil. Freddie is about winning and that is all. If people feel Freddie can't handle this? I think they are looking through a distorted lens.

Freddie when first promoted galvanized the players. He got them into plays they were comfortable with. He took input from others and reset the focus of the team.

I am not worried about the "problems" or how Freddie will handle things.

The offense already has confidence in Freddie. The defense will work under Wilks. However, it not like Freddie will be invisible to them. He knows the game.

Freddie was a star quarterback. He was a big deal in high school and college. He played for one of the top programs in all college football. He climbed his way into this position.

When you have that frame of reference of having played the quarterback position you understand both offense and defense. It gives you a great perspective of what needs to happen.

IMO. Freddie will be fine. He has the right stuff. Winning cures whining. Freddie strikes me as the type that will let nothing interfere with winning.

What Me Worry? Nah.

I don't know about any of those things becoming problems. But like it or not they're all questions left to be answered.

I'm still hearing/reading how Dorsey fleeced Gettleman. The Giants are getting killed and rightfully so.

There is also word out there that other teams were willing to give up more for OBJ, but they never got the chance. Some have cited that Dorsey and Gettleman are friends and that is why the Browns made the deal.

I don't know if all--or any--of that is true, but it's out there.

Bottom line, we've never seen anything like this. Revel in the glory. (Though I have to admit I don't like the bragging about division wins and Super Bowl appearances before the first whistle.)

I look at it like Dorsey sitting at a poker table... he was willing to push way more chips to the center than I would have. I don't feel like WR was a position of great need. Perriman was signed, we were "good to go".

There are some top-notch defenders (especially DL) at the top of the draft, we were in position to move up if we identified a transcendent player. I love Rashan Gary... would the Browns be better off with him on our DLine and without Beckham? We would have given up less. Peppers would still be here instead of a hole.

Put some more fuel on the fire... The cost of the contract (that OBJ may want reworked), the distribution of "balls", the personality mix. The expectations - of the fans, the players, the media. "Will the Browns figure a way to 'brown it up' like they always do?" The extra pressure on the coaching staff, etc... etc...

Those are all your negatives.

NOW. OBJ puts us over the top on offense. It's not cliche, DCs will have actual nightmares when the Browns are the next team on your schedule. It's been a really long time since I've seen this much offensive talent on one NFL team. As someone in the media said "that's not a roster, that's a fantasy draft". You have a second year QB who has already passed his first test with flying colors - surrounded by more talent than any QB in the NFL.

VG and OBJ are veritable artists at their craft; fast, precise, tough, hard-workers... Hands? Some may say we have the best four hands in the league. So good that these cats only need one each. It's ridiculous. Combine that with a QB that throws anticipated balls into tight windows with extreme accuracy. Need I say anything of Calloway, Higgins, Njoku, Chubb, Hunt and Duke (for now)? All bets are off, you cannot stop this team offensively - only they can stop themselves.

Sheldon Richardson and Olivier Vernon will make Garrett look more like the superstar he is. Many NFL QBs will have similar nightmares. Will we still be gashed by NFL RBs? Time will tell. Can we fill the hole that Peppers leaves? I really feel like the kid was turning the corner last year. I'd say probably not, at least not in free agency. Can Duke be flipped for another marquee move by King John? Wouldn't doubt it. Will OBJ turn out to be a cancer? If he does (unless he does it in grand fashion), he'll just get flipped next year for at least the first we lost.

Dorsey pushed in a lot of chips, but he didn't go "all in". There's still plenty of cash in the coffers. And this is no bluff. This is now one of the strongest "hands" in the NFL.

I ain't worried Bone.

Win and I don't know that anyone will be upset at not getting the ball. However should we start to lose, it's only natural for those not getting the ball thinking they can make a difference and the team is suffering because they're not getting the ball. Despite all the losing, we really haven't seen much of this, but I think Beckham and Landry could both fall in this category.

Bro, I am not trying to change your mind, but adding one of league's greatest players is way more important that drafting a guy who may or may not be a good DE.

I maintain that the Browns fleeced the Giants. This deal was a robbery. For once, it was the Browns who came out on top.

We did fleece them. I would think with all of the first round draft busts in our past this fan base has endured since 1999 they would realize a hope and a prayer is a much bigger risk than a proven player. Especially a HOF proven talent.

I agree! All I'm saying is that I wouldn't have had the balls to do it. I think I listed every negative possible and it still appears to be a brilliant move. At the end of the day - when given the opportunity - you cannot pass on HOF talent. This puts a lot of pressure on a new coaching staff, and new "chemistry" to succeed quickly. That's the only legitimate negative... and ONLY if some of the bumps in the road turn out to be huge potholes.

I was mostly playing Devil's Advocate, we're on the same page.

It's cool, bro. It's hard to express tone on here. I wasn't challenging you or anything. I'm just thrilled we made the move.

yup...Like Modell got for the Warfield trade.

Those aren't problems, what we just came out of was a problem ...

If anything, they're different problems and I welcome them with open arms.

I agree,, time to bragg (if you are going to do that) is after you do something, perhaps like WIN

I will go with that

Basically it will come back to Freddie.

I am going back to the series that covered Freddie from birth to now.

After reading that I believe it gave a good picture to who Freddie is.

That and reading the comments from guys like Carson Palmer and the people who know him.

I just do not see Freddie bending from who he is. He is about winning - period. I am thinking he will maintain that focus and make sure all are on the same page.

I saw the greeting Dorsey got from Richardson, Kush, Harris and Taylor. Really seemed genuine. Dorsey has surrounded Freddie with a good support and Dorsey will be front and center as well.

The players know the talent that has been added. Why would anyone not want to be a part of what is going on?

I very confident in Freddie, Dorsey and all that has been put into place.

Of course it's practically impossible to tell for sure for us fans, but my feeling is that Freddie is well respected by the players. That will go a long way to start things off, but in the end, it's what he says to each player or player group that will tell the story.

Man I want this guy to succeed.

Seems like the players love Freddie and i think it helps having Baker Being an alpha dog as qb

I don't put alot of weight in what people say about others with a microphone in front of them. You never hear their truth thoughts. Especially nowadays. I have some concerns with this team. We made weaker a unit that protects your most valuable asset while create another mouth to feed in a group that was pretty dang good at the end of the year. It was great trade only if the season is drama free and we have a adequate replacement for Zeiter. People are right to question Freddie, he's an unknown with a small sample size. He's been in the league a long time and never more than position coach. Its a big jump. He's got alot on his plate now between the personalities and the expectations all while learning on the job. We do have a seasoned and respected coaching and FO staff. Freddie has been given the best opportunity to succeed than any coach we've had since return. Alot rides on him. Its why I think he's probably got a shorter leash than a coach in a rebuild would get. Dorsey expects this team to come out and win asap. That being said I expect 12-4 this year..this is the year we figure it out

Add in Kizer for D Randall and Dorsey should be walking around with a peg leg, eye patch and a parrot on his shoulder.

Lol. Maybe that's how it started... about a year ago the parrot was chanting "Ba-ker May-field" in his ear and he took it to heart. Crazier things have happened in Cleveland - a homeless dude got us JFF.

Or in a Jimmy Haslam mask with a Flying J polo *ducks*

I don' think it was actually the homeless guy. But what choice did they have? They had to blame that crap on somebody!

I read somewhere that Dorsey didn't consider pick 17 a 1st round value this year with regards to the trade. Of course, I can't find the article now, but I'll link it if I track it down again.

This kind of has me re-evaluating this draft. And it makes me kind of look at the trade in a new light. Peppers, a "2nd", and a 3rd for OBJ sounds a lot worse for the Giants.

OR it could just be gamesmanship by Dorsey and he's angling to trade up into the late 1st.

It is silly smoke and mirrors season.

In the past I would obsess over the draft.

Almost like I was responsible. No more.

I have barely looked at all. We have eight picks and of course players available for trade (Duke, Ogbah).

When you look at what Avery, Callaway, Harrison did last year. Even the guys that did not play much. I have no doubt that we will add some quality.

When the draft is over I will look at the players Dorsey drafted and our new look roster.

The 2019 Cleveland Browns will be a team well worth the ticket price and for those who have to the Direct TV ticket.

That's EXACTLY where I am at.

I read that also.

You're not hallucinating.

Me Too +1

Any deal that you can't re-create on Madden because the team you're trading with thinks it's a bad deal is a great trade in my book.

Agreed. While it will still be interesting (and I will watch all 3 days), a lot of the excitement is gone. When we had the 1st pick, and more, I could barely contain myself...

I won't miss any of the draft, who knows what Dorsey will do, he may trade back into the first round ...

I'll probably just monitor it on the most reliable site for Browns news... Dawgtalkers.

I have read some of that, but I don't think the Giants got rooked by any means. It was a win/win trade IMO.

The Giants had a disgruntled, star receiver. They need a good interior linerman, they needed to replace a in the box SS, and needed to rebuild.

Adding Zeitler and Peppers, along with another solid #1 pick and a 3rd round pick make them a better team then had they kept Beckham.

Sometimes you have to break it down and start over. We of all fans should know that.

I am not trying to start a Sashi/Depo debate. We won't go there, but the plan worked, and I am glad JD is the guy doing the building. How's that?

We now have teams copying what we just did.

Again, I don't think the Giants got rooked. I think they got a good deal that will improve them and we got a player who will improve us.

The art of the deal is that everybody walks away from the table feeling at least 50% satisfied. You don't like what you lost, but you like what you gained.

We like that we got a true #1 for a QB who looks to be pretty darn good, and the Giants filled a few positional needs and gained solid draft position to build the team.

A solid deal for all.

That is a perfect analysis of it. Everyone got what they wanted, and left the door open for future trades if necessary.

The key is showing the patience. One analyst has tweeted that Oakland looked like they were going with our model, but got impatient and tried to jump to the end.

It seemed the Giants were working on our path, but then signed Golden Tate.

The plan takes time and patience.

I know they said they combined the trades, but it was really two separate trades.

OBJ for the 17th overall pick, a late, late 3rd round choice, and Peppers.

That's a steal.

I dont think "the plan" will work for anybody else. Because they dont have John Dorsey. They will be tanking and rebuilding forever. Like we were. For the last 20 years.

I dont even feel there was "a plan". It was a right place right time right guy thing that happened when we hired Dorsey. We just got lucky.

Oh. Did I go through a time warp or something. It's not even September yet.

Maybe so, but it went through as one deal.


Not arguing with you my friend.


In the end, it worked for all.

I worry that this trade will get graded better than the botched McCarron trade.

what happen to all the people that said can only build through draft??? when i was saying got to use both?

One of the things that most impressed me about BM last half of last season: Kid was spreading the ball around really, really well. That told me two things:

1. He was not married to one or two targets he trusted. Instead, he upped the games of all his receivers by being the one THEY could trust. That was huge. That one change totally flipped the QB/WR dynamic we've always seen in CLE. Before, fans needed to see WR's bail out mediocre QB's with circus catches to keep drives alive. Finally, we seem to have a QB who is elevating those around him.

That is 'culture-change' level stuff right there. Can't stress this enough.

2. He was really good at pre-snap reads and making adjustments post-snap.

Find Brian Baldinger's "Baker's Dozen" breakdown of Mayfield's top 13 throws of 2018. Like he said near the end of the clip, there are at least 20-30 additional plays that would make highlight reels, as well.

I think our effectiveness during the 2nd half of last season was mostly due to Baker's impressive ability to anticipate the open receiver, and just as importantly: throw open the right receiver.
Lots of his best plays came when he saw a covered WR with a clear path to daylight... and led him with the pass to the exact spot where only he could catch it. He 'threw them open.'

That is the kind of 'next-level' stuff that talking heads praise in guys like Brady and Brees. And kid was a 13- game rook.

Those attributes made us very unpredictable for DC's and very balanced in our attack. Bake complimented the WR's/TE's; the passing game threat opened lanes for Chubb. Chubb kept LB's honest which helped the short passing game.

Personally, I think the 'wide-open distribution' we saw in '18 is exactly Baker Mayfield's game. Big Dawgs is gonna eat, because Baker's innate style of play is crazy distribution. It's gonna be his hallmark... and it's gonna make this a team that wakes up weekly 'feeling dangerous.'

At this point, I'm not ready to borrow trouble where none yet exists. Locker room dynamics can always be a concern (or potential concern), but I'm actually pretty relaxed about it at present. Landry is heavily invested as a leader from last year (Still love that 'Hard Knocks' episode with him in the WR's room), Baker is galvanizing the O around his moxie and charisma, and a competent professional staff is in charge of putting them on the field.

I'm actually a touch more concerned about the guys who don't wear uniforms. Those guys on the field can only win if the coaches are a well-trained rowing crew, all oars in sync. And we have a really sketchy history when it comes to that stuff.

#TestBereaWaterSupply

.02

Nice post, but there are still some concerns w/the post-snap reads. He's kinda slow going through progressions. The OL did him a lot of favors.

However, you are completely right on the pre-snap reads. He wasn't very good right away, but the dude killed it on the pre-snap reads as the season progressed. I was--and am--very impressed.

I'm wondering how much thwt improves this year... hoping to see a big jump in his reading defenses this year.. not saying he was bad... but he gets a full offseason to get to work....

I think he's gonna be ok.

Tell you this- I haven't been this interested in CLE in a long lotta years. Even offseason has been fun this year.

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-brow...bssportsapp.com

Not only that but the contract guaranteed money after this year is nothing. 16 mil.

That was a good post, and Vers was right about the OL helping him out.

I liked your thought about Baker 'throwing them open'.

When you have a QB who produces, everyone works harder, plays harder and with more focus.

Lots of reasons to feel good.

Sweet! Name calling!

Same here

Possibly the deal was done (with a pencil) when we made the trade for Vernon.

I don't disagree with you, but what I think Cap is saying (and I agree with) is that you first need to go through (and I hesitate calling it this for fear of derailing the thread) the "Sashi" phase. The tanking phase has to happen to load up on capital (draft and $$$) so you can pounce when the timing is right (the right draft prospects and/or a healthy FA year). You have to go through that in order to get to the "Dorsey" phase. Whether you do or don't have Dorsey is largely irrelevant if you don't give him the ammo to do his thing. We had back to back 1st picks... if we don't have that (which came from sucking and trading down in previous drafts) then I'd guess we only come away with 1 of Garrett, Baker, and Ward. Team looks very very different, in that case.


Add: we were impatient, but the Raiders and Giants seem even more so.

Tearing it down only works if all of the pieces fall in place to find the perfect person to use the ammunition you've accumulated.

But yeah, part of the plan was that Dorsey would be fired in Kansas City and he would be there for us to hire at just the right time. Miss Cleo told them so.

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

I'm thinking about it a little bit more.

Seriously, it's a 2-step process. Without Sashi, Dorsey wouldn't have the ammo to go and get his guy, and the $$$ to pay people to come here. You think Dorsey would sign up for the front end of our rebuild? You think Sashi could make picks like Dorsey did? IMO, the answer to both those questions are 'No'.

Huh... I'll have to think about this more. It's interesting to think that we wouldn't be here right now without both Sashi and Dorsey being where they were, when they were.

That's a fine way to look at it if you think that going into the 2016 season that Dorsey would be sitting there unemployed. Nobody could have foreseen that to years before it happened.

I've watched this team screw up top draft picks year in and year out.Waste draft picks on QB after QB. You can have all the ammunition in the world but if you can't shoot that ammunition is pretty much useless if you can't shoot.

We were just lucky Dorsey was available and nobody could have predicted that when we went into this so called "process".

I guess if people think trading back and cutting most of your talent takes some special skill, we can give credit evenly. But most people know it takes a major talent to re-build a team to be a top contender in to off seasons. Those are not equal parts to a puzzle by any stretch.

Some of you still underrate how good Baker is... I love it. Not a knock on any of you, but I love that we have a very underrated quarterback still. There's going to be hiccups with rookie and young quarterbacks along the way... However, Baker was about as perfect as you can be for a rookie. His pre and post snap reads were actually really good. Do not be fooled. As Clem pointed out, you can watch Baldy's Breakdowns, the Bakers dozen and you'll see Baker was very very good.

The fake where he flipped the ball to himself was phenomenal. Sure he was helped by a very good offensive line, but Baker's pocket awareness is beyond anything we've seen in Cleveland in probably 30 years. Baker is an absolute stud.

People can say they still have questions about this or questions about that, I understand the skepticism, we're Browns fans afterall. He was the best quarterback to come out of college since Luck, and he's better than Luck. It's why he was the no-brainer #1 pick in the draft last season. He was THE franchise quarterback in the draft.

We are going to go far with this young man...as long as ownership doesn't screw it up.

I will give you props, device, on Baker. You may or may not remember, but he was not who I wanted us to draft. I also was not a fan of Ward at #4. This is why I am a software engineer and not making decisions for an NFL team.

To say I was pleased with Bake's play last year is an understatement. To say I am excited to continue to see him play is an understatement. To say I am happy he is the QB on my team is an understatement.

While I love the game and try to learn as much about it as I can, I am not one of these guys who can dissect plays and breakdown film. But, to my untrained eye, the one thing I (think I) noticed about Bake is a tendency to ignore an open guy 8 yards downfield in favor of a covered guy 30 yards downfield. Sometimes it works, sometimes not. But there are times when 8 yards is good.

I think that a lot of the time, those guys 8 yards down the field aren't as open as they look. If there are zone defenders in the general area waiting to jump outside routes, those can be riskier than they look at first blush. On the deep routes you don't have to worry about defenders coming from the opposite direction in most cases as the deepest guy is heading in the same general direction as the receiver and has his back to the QB.

Typically, you're at worst looking at the equivalent of an underwhelming punt on a deep shot. Misread a DB on an out route (or something underneath in traffic) and you can be looking at 6 the other way.

I wouldn't really call deep shots conservative, but in some ways they kind of can be.

I would say the difference here is the time the football is in the air. On an eight yard pass the ball is only in the air for less than a second unless it's on the outside. A defender almost has to read the route from the outset in order to react in time. With the long ball they have the time to read and react to the play for a much longer period of time.

It can work that way, but it depends on the position of the DB. Often they are playing the man rather than the ball/reading the QB on deep balls.

Most D's don't have their safeties 30 yards deep every play despite the way we saw Peppers deployed.

Yet completion percentages are so much higher on passes less than 10 yards than they are at passes over 20 yards I'm not quite sure of the point you're trying to make here.

There are worse things than incompletions.

While the risk of an incompletion might be higher on deep throws, the risk of a pick-6 is most likely much lower on deep shots than those throws less than 10 yards.

In a nutshell, a QB has to balance risk and reward.

I was just trying to give CapCity Dawg a different perspective on what he might be seeing.

My take on what Cap said is this.

Checking down can for some become habit. It is the safe play.

Baker has it in him that he can make big plays. You don't want to take that mentality away. Yes, you must at times take that check down play.

At the same time when you look at some of the td's and great plays Baker made last year. If you are afraid to make those throws; I don't want that guy.

There is a balance. But I accept that sometimes it will not work out. At the same time if you can not make great throws; you will never become great.

Deeper pass attempts have a higher risk of interception. Deep attempts are intercepted 6.4% of the time, compared to only 1.8% for short attempts. Deep attempts certainly are riskier, but the risk of interception is already baked into the respective EPA values of deep and short attempts.

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/09/deep-vs-short-passes.html

And this includes passes in the red zone with which the defense only has 20 yards or less of the field to protect. The red zone factor would make the short pass int. ratio higher if anything but obviously doesn't even come close to equaling the two out.

j/c:

I will bow out of this thread, but I want to reiterate what I said. I thought Baker did a great job of improving on the pre-snap reads but is still struggling a bit w/the post-snap reads. He missed seeing open receivers. I am positive of that.

I am not asking for anyone to believe me and I get it that it's not popular to dare criticize Baker in any way, shape, or form..........but, I know what I saw.

With that said, the guy excelled in a ton of areas and he was clearly the best rookie qb of the bunch. I think he has a real chance to be an excellent qb and I am glad Dorsey drafted him w/the first overall pick.

This is something I admired about Freddie's play calling last year... so many huge plays came on third and long. That incredible tight window TD to Landry, 50 yards in the air, came on 3rd and 17 against the Panthers. Higher risk of interception, but an interception is as good as a punt if it doesn't work out.

I've never really understood why teams run a draw on third and long rather than going 45 yards downfield with a pass.

Chapter Two:

Here is the Baldinger breakdown I mentioned. 9 well-spent minutes. If this doesn't excite you, someone should check your pulse.

To add, I think there's certainly a risk reward to Baker's quarterbacking. I don't think I'd consider "missing" the wide open underneath receiver as a misread. It's more of him knowing his deep guy is also open and that he's capable of making the catch. I suppose that is why some think baker will throw a lot of interceptions. I do think he is very aware of the defense and how and where to put the ball where only his receiver can get it. I think baker is more accurate than Favre so I don't think he will throw as many interceptions as Favre. I think baker will obviously force the ball sometimes but he is aware when to make that risky throw vs hitting the open guy underneath. I think he knows when and where his receivers are open at almost all times.

After years of sub-mediocre QB play, it feels like a luxury to be discussing the play of a CLE QB that doesn't involve the words 'dink' and 'dunk.'

I'm enjoying the helloutta BM's intermediate/long game. That stuff is exciting as hell to watch, and many of those passes are just plain beautiful.

This has been especially interesting for me because I don't follow college ball. I'd heard his name (like all the other QB's in his class), but didn't know anything about him 'til he got here. I'm forming my expectations purely on what he has shown me in his time as a Brown. I'm really, really enjoying this ride so far.

I love Baker for many reasons, but especially because he is a gunslinger.

It's crack to my eyeballs, brain, and heart.

This is the QB I have long desired but never had. Until now.

That's a real good analysis of what we watched last year. While I agree with Vers, and Baker definitely missed post-snap reads last year, I think there were a few times when he "forced the issue" for bigger plays down field. So, while you can say he's not a finished project, you can't argue the extent the game has slowed down for him. He didn't miss those plays, they were right in front of his face, he just opted for something more substantial.

As far as the INTs, oh, they will come. He has enough gunslinger mentality that they're inevitable, especially on an offense which will never be afraid of it's ability to keep leads or stay in tough games. We got really lucky with quite a few missed opportunities for opposing defenses last year... with potential INTs and Baker's fumbles we could have easily lost. Remember Bitonio's classic run? That was one such play. He doesn't recover, we don't score, could have been a much different game.

I do think there will be hiccups and/or bad games to come. I think that's inevitable. I will still hold strong that I don't think Mayfield will throw as many INTs as some may expect.

Crack to your eyeballs? Damn that was good.. I like that line

I'm sure Baker will improve on several things.
I didn't see the confusion or the "SLOW" progressions. Baldi didn't either. Oh I'm sure there were open WRs Baker missed. I cannot think of any QB every who didn't miss an open WR from time to time. But in a lot of cases it was more Which Open WR should Baker target. Our OL did a great job.

Oh in that Baldi Baker dozen btw you will see Duke out there on those passing downs. He didn't get targeted that much but he was in there blocking, out the set up in the slot and that fake toss Baldi's last and favorite Baker play was to Duke.

Sometimes I do not understand your criticism of Baker, its ok but I don't see what you see. Is it an area to improve on as a rookie to 2nd year and beyond. You probably are correct and he will improve on making his progressions quicker. That comes with comfort. But I don't see it as a PROBLEM that you do. He's always been good with his progressions and as a rookie he did better than any that I have seen in the past.

jmho you entitled to yours also...

I wonder what the numbers look like if you take out Hail Marys from the deep attempts.


Link

It'd take a lot of work to break down the numbers on deep passes if you broke down the numbers based on where the deepest DB was in relation to the intended receiver when the ball was thrown, but I imagine the numbers would be skewed higher towards interceptions when defenses were in prevent.

In the end, risk vs. reward is a rather fluid thing for a QB. Baker seems to have been more right than wrong so far. Let's hope he keeps it up. Having OBJ shouldn't hurt. His ability to separate is pretty nice.

Well you can take those hail mary's and even them out by red zone plays. You have all 11 players on defense having to only cover 20 yards or less of the field. That would greatly make the short pass more risky.

I don't know how much more it could possibly take to show you how misguided the thought process is that says shorter passes are somehow more risky than short passes. It's not even close.

I mean this lightheartedly, but sometimes I get the impression that you like to argue for the sake of arguing. I suppose the same could be said for me.

Speaking in generalizations, shorter passes are safer than longer ones. There is, however, a wide variation in risk between passes within those categories.

Baker's done a good job of picking his spots.

As Vers mentioned, he does miss open guys at times, but (/and) even Brady does.

The initial discussion was about Baker taking deep shots over "safer" shorter throws. You can't take deep shots in the red zone, so I'm not really sure why you're bringing the stats there into the "argument."

Back to the initial observation-

I kind of wonder if Bakers height plays into his throw selection at times. You don't want to miss short throws high over the middle as that leads to tip drill situations. Driving the ball down over their OL can be difficult for shorter QBs. Having to find throwing lanes can complicate timing as well.

Baker has made it work, though.

I don't really like to argue. I do however sometimes get frustrated when people try to make obscure suggestions that have been solidly disproven.

There's overwhelming evidence that shorter passes are far safer than long passes. The jury is in and there's really no legitimate argument to the contrary.

You are arguing generalizations.

I am looking at specifics.

I'm not arguing the overall numbers.

I'm looking at sub-sets. I'm looking at the film of Baker actually playing. I'm trying to mesh that with contextualized data.

You've disproven nothing. You argued against a position that wasn't taken. By posting a link to an article that came to the conclusion that teams should throw deep more, I might add.

You are looking at two variables (short vs. long.) I'm trying to look at "all" of them, on a play-by-play basis, taking defense into account. A deep throw can be less risky than a short throw in certain circumstances. I'm not saying, "is always less risky."

You get frustrated when people don't agree with you. I get frustrated when people don't take the time to think about what I'm actually saying (sometimes trying to say and not all that coherently). People, not just you, want everything black and white. I'm trying to sift through shades of gray.

A DB with his back to the ball is less likely to make an interception than one who is facing it. Would you agree?

The deep vs. short passes overall numbers don't take that into account. They include all deep and short passes regardless of what the DB is doing.

If a DB is sitting back deep waiting on a ball that is in the air a long time, I imagine it is much more likely to be intercepted...as you said. If he's hauling ass trying to chase down a 4.4 speed receiver who got past him when he was in man coverage, he's probably less likely to get a pick. Throwing to the receiver in the 2nd situation rather than a receiver running a shorter route with a defender over top, waiting, trying to bait him into throwing, while he's looking right at it, would appear to be less risky.

Not all deep/short throws are created equally.

On a play by play basis long passes equal almost six times the likelihood of being intercepted as short passes do. The jury is in.

Maybe your research could slightly alter this but the actual outcome won't overcome that. Let me know how that works out for you.

I don't get frustrated when people don't agree with me. I get frustarated when people fly in the face of common logic. Many things about the game of football are subjective and differing opinions can apply. That doesn't bother me at all. But when people flatly deny something that's so obvious anyone can see it and people who actually study the game know it? Yeah, that can be frustrating.

Listen up you old coot. You like to argue. I have known you for near 20 years now. Badgering each other on the boards, and breaking bread at more than a couple of tailgates.

One proof I offer is you never end without the last word.

It doesn't matter how wrong you are, you maintain you are right.

I don't follow your logic.

You're basically saying a QB should throw it short every time because "on every play long passes are more likely to be intercepted."

I'm saying it depends on what is going on during the actual individual play.

Which makes more sense?

Why do we worry about a QB being able to read defenses and see the field?

Following your logic (or at least what you wrote), a pass to a receiver 30 yards downfield whose defender fell down and he has no one within 20 yards is more risky than throwing a pass to a triple covered back in the flat, with two of the defenders being between the QB and RB.

Feel free to say, "Oh, okay. I see what you're saying." Or, keep digging in. Whatever.

That sounds logical....

IMO, very much of the probability statistics do not take game situation into account.

For instance, how many long passes are thrown in absolute desperation by QB's who just aren't very good, which is why they are often in desperation mode? How many short passes are designed to be as safe as possible for similar QB's? How often do good, accurate QB's need to take risks, compared to the not-so-good ones? How many long passes "float" for far too long?

Take the going for it on 4th down, or two-point attempt numbers, sure, if Baker is the QB, I think the odds are in favor. However, if our QB is Kizer, then I take the safe option.

Game situation is more of a factor at the moment of choice than the stats in general. There is no "average" game, player, or play.

Swing and a miss!

Long passes carry more danger which is exactly why they're attempted less often. There are certainly situations in which the long pass makes a lot of sense. Being behind late in a game. You throw some mixed in to keep the opposing defense honest and loosen up there coverage. Sometimes you'll find an obvious mismatch in coverage.

The problem here is that in this debate you have decided to move the goal post. At first you tried to make the point that long passes didn't carry more risk. Now since that has obviously been debunked you've moved on to "Then why throw them at all".

That's not going to work.

You're wrong!

I can't believe this is even being debated.

You're understanding of my argument may have changed, but I used "can be" from the first post on the topic. You are the one insisting on arguing absolutes. My argument was that they don't always carry more risk. As far as moving goal posts, you're the one trying to move my argument into something that it never was.

You keep saying they are always more risky. The obvious response, in my mind, was "then why ever throw them?"

Everything else being equal, deep throws are more risky than short throws- you'd be right if that is all you were saying. However, everything else is never equal outside of a spreadsheet. The risk of a throw depends upon innumerable variables, not just distance.

People can read it all for themselves. I'll let it go at that.

We had high draft picks and cap space for years and years and years. And our team was largely incompetant at tranforming that into wins. We couldnt do it.

I credit John Dorsey with 100% of our pending success. He is an exceptional judge of talent. And we would be nowhere without him.

I get that in general, historically, good GMs have never wanted to come here. Because "Cleveland". That has a lot to do with our historic failures.

So, if these other teams want to turn themselves into the equivalent of an expansion team....Well... they better have a damn good GM/scout team lined up to get out of that hole.

That's all I have to say about that.

Yeah, you would think people could see how much cap space and draft capital we've had since what seems like forever and where all of that got us enough up until now to understand what you said. But they have to try and dismiss reality.

You are correct.

I had go back and read what the start of all this was, why sudden hate for the long pass?

Grimm Brown was saying likelihood of a pick 6, and surely everyone understands that a short out intercepted leaves the intercepter with nobody between himself and the end zone,

while a deep pass intercepted , (or even a pass intercepted in the back of the end zone from a play originating in the red zone), leaves X PERCENTAGE of the offensive players still in position to make a tackle on the intercepter and " more real estate" he must traverse before it becomes a pick 6.

Thus making it less safe, pick 6 wise, or do I mean more safe.
: The deep pass, less likely a pick 6.

Actually, this started because some of us disagree w/how well Baker is reading coverages post-snap and then someone made a crazy comment about the 8 yard pass. Suffice to say that any comments that aren't glowingly positive in regards to Baker Mayfield will be challenged and even ridiculed.

I dont mind if you guys criticize Baker's post snap reads or whatever aspect of his game.

For the simple reason he studded out, and if there are reasons he can get even better....well I'm all about it because he will become the GOAT. And it wont even be close based on the trajectory he is on.

That is the Beauty of Baker as his deep passes are very accurate and have a higher % than most completed. He also hits the small windows in those deep passes better than most.

jmho

For me, it's Battered Browns Fan Syndrome. In the back of my mind, I can't shake the feeling it will all come tumbling down. The only reason for that is because of our past failures.

But that's really quite ridiculous when I really think about it. A QB doesn't set rookie records just by accident. Our RB doesn't put up nearly 1,000 yards in a partial season by accident. Our offensive coordinator doesn't design plays that work by accident. Our GM doesn't just suddenly lose his ability to judge talent.

But is this like 2007/2008? When we nearly missed the playoffs but then 2008 happened and it all came crashing down? I don't think so. Just totally different situations. I don't think anyone is going to say Mayfield and Derek Anderson are the same kind of players.

*Side story* I remember watching the preseason games in 2008. I think it was the first preseason game, we were all pumped up because of our success in 2007. This was going to be our year, finally.

First preseason game, the Browns O marches down the field and Anderson hooks up with Braylon Edwards for a beautiful acrobatic touchdown catch. I remember thinking to myself "oh man, maybe this IS our year!"

And, out of nowhere, a huge thunderstorm happens. Lightning, game delayed. Just a sudden short tempest. Crennel decides the field isn't safe for the starters anymore, so it's backups from then on in that game.

I think it was just a couple days later that Edwards is racing barefoot and gets his foot stepped on. He misses most (if not all) of the rest of the regular season. And everything just went downhill from there.

*end irrelevant side story*

Anyway, I need to get over my "we've sucked in the past, so something will happen to us because we're cursed" mindset. That's a loser mindset. There are reasons to be excited for this season, and it isn't just "we slapped a new coat of paint on a dilapidated outhouse" like we did in 2008. We actually seem to have a foundation to build on.

Could things happen? Could injuries derail us? Sure. But that's the NFL. It happens to every team.

JMHO

Well, the fact is that regardless of the look it has to all come together on the field. Im not overly concerned but seemingly ideal teams have failed alot.

https://twitter.com/obj

Odell Beckham Jr
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I ain’t gone lie..I woke up feeling dangerous!! 😭😭😭

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