Good interview. There's a segment towards the end that sums everything up pretty nicely. It's easy to get lost in all the ambiguities and how they apply to "analytics in football". This isn't word for word, I was just jotting it down in context...
Quote:
How we judge results... we reject the narrative that we're going to create some magic formula that will be correct 100% of the time and default to Paul DePodesta's mantra.
Creating better frameworks for making decisions under uncertainty.
Although it's a broad term, it comes through in the use of our data and creating our models, it comes through in outlining a process for making decisions and adhering to that process. In essence, it's a bunch of small decisions that add up to wins over time.
I think the whole "analytics approach" is misunderstood by most fans. There isn't some magic algorithm running the draft or scripting the first twenty plays of a game. It's about data sets being available for every circumstance. With FA and the draft, this data is communicated over months. On gameday, available data has to be packaged, ready, and communicated over a few seconds in some cases.
The two most important ingredients are not spelled out in the above, you have to read between the lines, they have absolutely nothing to do with data and crunching numbers...
Alignment and trust.
Alignment: We are aligned, from top to bottom, that we will explore all available data before making decisions. We know that as long as we adhere to the process it will equate to success over time.
Trust: We trust, from top to bottom, that decision makers will adhere to the process. Whether that decision maker is a coach on gameday when provided info on a team's tendencies, or a player on the field that has been informed on his head-to-head adversary.
As long as we are aligned and trust, there is no need for finger-pointing or becoming the rogue agent that thwarts the process. Algorithms don't win football games. It takes talent, great decision making, and sometimes a little luck to do it week in and week out. "Analytics" is merely a matter of being armed with as much pertinent information as possible.
I listened to this and kept hoping it would get better. It didn’t get better. The host seemed to be in over his head in asking relevant questions. Mina Kimes interviewed the guy from the Ravens who holds the same position in Baltimore and it was much more interesting.
Good interview. There's a segment towards the end that sums everything up pretty nicely. It's easy to get lost in all the ambiguities and how they apply to "analytics in football". This isn't word for word, I was just jotting it down in context...
Quote:
How we judge results... we reject the narrative that we're going to create some magic formula that will be correct 100% of the time and default to Paul DePodesta's mantra.
Creating better frameworks for making decisions under uncertainty.
Although it's a broad term, it comes through in the use of our data and creating our models, it comes through in outlining a process for making decisions and adhering to that process. In essence, it's a bunch of small decisions that add up to wins over time.
I think the whole "analytics approach" is misunderstood by most fans. There isn't some magic algorithm running the draft or scripting the first twenty plays of a game. It's about data sets being available for every circumstance. With FA and the draft, this data is communicated over months. On gameday, available data has to be packaged, ready, and communicated over a few seconds in some cases.
The two most important ingredients are not spelled out in the above, you have to read between the lines, they have absolutely nothing to do with data and crunching numbers...
Alignment and trust.
Alignment: We are aligned, from top to bottom, that we will explore all available data before making decisions. We know that as long as we adhere to the process it will equate to success over time.
Trust: We trust, from top to bottom, that decision makers will adhere to the process. Whether that decision maker is a coach on gameday when provided info on a team's tendencies, or a player on the field that has been informed on his head-to-head adversary.
As long as we are aligned and trust, there is no need for finger-pointing or becoming the rogue agent that thwarts the process. Algorithms don't win football games. It takes talent, great decision making, and sometimes a little luck to do it week in and week out. "Analytics" is merely a matter of being armed with as much pertinent information as possible.
I understand the confusion some of you have. You're confusing me with someone who gives a damn about your opinion. If you guys don't want comments about Sashi, don't bring up Sashi then act like it's someone elses fault.
Nobody gives a damn about what you think so any time I see Sashi comments I will comment as well. You might as well get used to it.
No one was even making a comment in regards to Sashi and the Browns. The interviewer named a podcast after him, I made a joke about it, and you get so triggered simply seeing his name you have to respond.
Every.Single.Time
Quote:
You might as well get used to it.
Oh, we are used to it. Which is why it's so funny.
I an really surprised this is working. How can a baseball guy and Ivy League grads run a successful NFL team?
I think we tried (and failed) to put together an Frankenstein of 'football guy' and new-age analytics guy and the disparate parts just weren't able to coalesce into a unit/team. Oil-and-water. It's not enough to simply tell people that they need to work together. Aside from the winning (the cure-all) we seem to have people that are on the same page. IMO, we had lots of talented people, but they seemed to spend half their energy fighting each other.
While I would vehemently disagree with this only a couple years ago, now (with where the franchise is) I think it's perfectly fine to discuss the finer points of the Sashi era (and it's roots and what it was disassembled into). We're in a good spot now, so it should hopefully be easier to talk about the past dumpster fires in a more constructive way.
TLDR: While there are plenty of arguments about how Sashi shoulda/coulda done this/that, at the end of the day the only person that deserves to eat the poop sandwich from the Sashi/Hue/Dorsey debacle is Haslam.
When the subject of Sashi and what he did and didn't do comes up, I always refer back to that one ESPN article (I think you all know which one I'm talking about). It was a "what the hell just happened" piece that went into a LOT of details of the inner workings that saw Sashi and Depo hired, Hue hired, and then Sashi fired and Dorsey hired. I don't remember if it covered Hue being fired or not but IMO, it's irrelevant as the one that was the root of all that drama was Jimmy Haslam. As the info came out, I became more and more sympathetic to Sashi's side of the story. He (allegedly) was transparent about The Plan and how it was supposed to work. Jimmy bought was Sashi was selling, and then tried a return-without-receipt-after-the-30-days when the going got tough. Admittedly, Sashi's picks didn't inspire much confidence when it came time to cash in, but he was also a consensus guy that had Berry on his staff... so who really knows how it would've gone.
The aggressive collection of draft and FA resources was something that really wasn't done prior to Sashi. He got real creative with the Brock Osweiler trade/cut. I think they made a rule against that after Sashi got it through.
You might want to look at what was going on before he got here. We were already trading down fort lesser talent and collecting draft picks. Losing isn't an accomplishment. It wasn't an accomplishment before he got here nor was it an accomplishment after he got here.
Sashi had a job to do. He did it about as well as it could be done. Period. He wasn't a typical GM, he wasn't a "team builder", he was the lead architect in tearing things down.
Haslam, DePodesta and Sashi were sold on the idea. Depo and Browns were like mad scientists in acquiring draft picks while cutting salary and hoarding carryover cap space. When they were done we had the most draft capital in the salary cap era and the most available cap in the history of the NFL. The trade down with the Texans became Denzel Ward, "suckitude" became Baker Mayfield, Brock O became Nick Chubb and Andy Lee (the first battle in what became a war between Sashi and Huey) became the cornerstone and first sign that the painful "phase one" was complete in a trade for Jarvis Landry.
People look at dysfunction and point the finger at Haslam -- rightfully so. He's the man in charge, all blame lies squarely in his lap. What some seem to ignore is that "the plan" didn't magically work without his approval and restraint, for that he deserves a huge amount of credit.
The most important hire in this process was the one he never made. It can't be emphasized enough, in my opinion. Sashi Brown was executive vice president, Haslam never hired a GM and that's one of the most important moves that were made along the way. Sashi was a placeholder for a real GM, but not before the time was right.
What was the likelyhood of another high-profile GM being hired (instead of Sashi) and adhering to 2-3 seasons of sucking and stripping the roster? Not high, because that person would feel like a sitting duck, as I'm sure Sashi did. JH ws already past the point of no return with the constant turnover (domino effect) of hiring from the top down. We were not getting rid of this "stench" with wash, rinse, repeat... And we were not hiring a "real" GM because that would only serve as interference with the plan.
The goal - plain and simple - was to make this one of the most attractive landing spots for a great GM. JH was tired of prospective GMs and their list of "conditions" to their employment. He was tired of acting and hiring out of desperation. He was tired of being the red-headed-step-child when it came to hiring coaches. Every year the same thing... Browns end a terrible season, throw their hat in the ring in the HC pool, watch everyone (with a fighting chance to turn this around) fill other vacancies... while the peanut gallery flat-out laughed at us.
He was sticking with Sashi and Hue til the deed was done. Sashi's days were numbered the day Deshaun Watson went down with an injury in 2017. Ironically, the draft pick we recieved from the Texans was the one they gave us to move up and draft Watson. As we knew we would watch that draft pick climb the boards, Haslam knew it was "time". No way, no how, was Sashi making those picks. JH had an eight week head start looking for the GM. The moment Dorsey was available, Sashi was fired.
Did analytics play an important role? Hell yes, one of the most important, also "behavioral science" (see link at the end of this TLTR post).
But once again, ALIGNMENT was the prerequisite. Jimmy, Paul and Sashi were aligned. Dorsey was not -- that's why Dorsey is gone. Hue was not -- that's why Hue is gone. In his defense, what coach would be? In Jimmy's defense, for what everyone points to as "dysfunction and bad decisions", he gave Hue a life-line for phase two, Hue still wasn't on the same page and his refusal to get there caused even more dysfunction with the coaching staff and FO.
So here we are. The "analytics-driven-team" on the verge of greatness. I have a hard time looking at the whole process without remaining firmly in the camp of "Sashi Died So We Could Live".
The man sucked as badly as Hue. He was sent packing after two years. He left the cupboards bare and some of you are making this shlub out to be a martyr. It's hilarious watching people grasping at straws to defend a loser.
What is the funniest thing about it is people act like trading down and getting draft picks in return is some superpower. It's not. Every NFL team in the league gets picks in return for trading down.
People make it sound like cutting high priced players to build salary cap assets was some little known secret. It's not. When you cut your best players and cut spending it builds salary cap. Gutting a team doesn't take talent. Building a team from the ashes does.
Since trading down for picks and cutting high priced players to build salary cap is something everyone with even the basic understanding of how this works knows, I have no idea why people think that is some big accomplishment. It's not.
I'm well aware of what was going on here before, and I never said losing was an accomplishment. It was the plan. Two different things. The degree to which we accumulated draft picks year over year wasn't done before, and our strategy of rolling over cap wasn't done before. Perfect example of the creativity he showed in executing on the plan was BO trade/cut.
Maybe Sashi didn't (and didn't have the expertise to) cook the dinner... But saying "He left the cupboards bare" is one of the most outrageous statements in the history of this board. And that's saying a lot.
So what happens when any team trades down in the NFL? Normally they get future picks. What happens when any team cuts high priced players? They add to their salary cap.
So all he did was the same thing thousands of people at the very least could have done. When I see a beautiful new building I don't even attempt to give the credit to the demolition crew.
He left us with draft picks which anyone who constantly traded down could have done. It isn't complicated.
It's true that it's easy enough to simply trade down, slightly harder (but not difficult IMO) to get good value back in the deal(s). But despite that, so few NFL GMs embrace trading down as the first tool to rebuild a roster. IIRC, no GM had 'gone all-in' in tearing a roster down to the studs (remember that phrase?) to kick off a rebuild.
If you want to argue what the roster would look like if Sashi had been kept long enough to cash in on those picks, then I'd probably jump all the way over to your side of the debate. But saying he "left the cupboard bare" is demonstrably (and hilariously) false.
Maybe Sashi didn't (and didn't have the expertise to) cook the dinner... But saying "He left the cupboards bare" is one of the most outrageous statements in the history of this board. And that's saying a lot.
And it's a good thing we had all that draft capital as well. If not, the only player left from the 2018 draft on this team would be Baker Mayfield.
What was the big "historic" thing Sashi supposedly did that Mac was talking about?
Destroying the fax machine and telling Jimmuh no one uses those things anymore.
Nice video. I never really thought of the what ifs had Sashi not sabotaged that trade. No Baker, no Chubb, no Landry....McCarron at qb. Hue and Sashi running the team. We do owe Mr. Brown a big thank you.
So what happens when any team trades down in the NFL? Normally they get future picks. What happens when any team cuts high priced players? They add to their salary cap.
So all he did was the same thing thousands of people at the very least could have done. When I see a beautiful new building I don't even attempt to give the credit to the demolition crew.
He left us with draft picks which anyone who constantly traded down could have done. It isn't complicated.
But yet there is no new building without the demolition crew.
People walk by and marvel at the beauty without giving a thought to the previous structure. Then some people, like yourself, stand outside in protest... Looking for any opportunity to chastise, belittle and make fun of the demolition crew for no good reason at all. Like Sashi, they had a job to do and they did it, paving the way for the shiny and new. It's really that simple.
Yeah, it takes as much talent to tear a building down as it does to design and build a new building. It's the same thing. Sashi did have a job to do. He tore down a building. The real talent was needed to build a new building. Blowing things up isn't that difficult.
Where did I say it took as much talent? Nobody has ever said that, yet you constantly state it as fact.
The silly thing about all this back and forth is that you constantly create a narrative that doesn't exist. At the end of the day, in essence, you've spent post after post arguing with yourself!
Not really. I guess you ignore what a great job and how critical they think Sashi was when all he did was something anyone could have done if their boss told them to.
So Sashi did nothing more than Ray Farmer, could have or would have done, but, Since he had some fancy bells and whistles system, it's somehow legendary.
That's my basic feeling on all of Analytics, and eventually it's going to come back and bite them, So, I don't really think it's anything too special, and
I refuse to read these long winded posts about a Browns GM from 3 years ago who is no longer with the team, including this page, so I guess I'm missing the point because I don't read it.
(Nobody was ever talking about Sashi, or any GM,
until Hue, the HC. started losing 15 per year, and it's like people wanted to deflect criticism.) Done with that stuff.
Where did I say it took as much talent? Nobody has ever said that, yet you constantly state it as fact.
The silly thing about all this back and forth is that you constantly create a narrative that doesn't exist. At the end of the day, in essence, you've spent post after post arguing with yourself!
Like I said, some people don't get it...no biggie...let it go.
Less people forget that his job 1 was to find the QB.
I get the QB is the most important position in all of sports but I'm not sure "his job was to find a QB" is in any way an accurate statement. In fact, all moves indicate the exact opposite, whether you agree with the approach or not.
That said, Wentz and Watson aren't the most favorable QBs to argue for....Mahomes would have been much better to cite.
And both Brown and Haslem publicly said Hue was brought in to be the HC (obviously) and to identify the QB. That was the most egregious mistake was letting Hue have input & Sashi pulling the trigger. But then again, everyone wanted McDermott over Hue, except for Haslem. So there is that.
"Earth shook beneath my feet"-- about RG3 "Trust me"- about Kessler Attempted coup for McCarron giving up a second and third
Do you need the video? Those were his exact words not mine.
I love videos. Send it over.
My comment still stands. You referenced Wentz and Watson. Those currently aren't the beacons of franchise QBs to knock Sashi on for not drafting, for different reasons obviously. Which is why I said Mahomes would have been a better argument. Maybe even Prescott in the 4th.
But the teams actions, or perhaps better stated, priorities weren't about getting a QB, it was about accumulation of draft capital and increasing the % of hitting on picks. It is all there right in front of you.....the proof is in the pudding, as they say.
But if he said what you claim in the video (which I'll assume to be true because I don't know it).....you were lied to. That's never happened in a press conference EVER.
3/4 of this Team including Baker was assembled by Dorsey. Give him some love.
It is nowhere near 3/4 now or last year but it was at some point.
Dorsey should get credit for selecting players like Baker, Ward, and Chubb (even if he needed the last regime's extra picks for two of them). Credit for only having to trade a 4th for Landry. Signing Hunt for $1M. Those were his more valuable moves.
he made some solid moves... then hired kitchen....
we currently have the best FO that I think we've had since returning... yes others have contributed to where we're at today.... but I have more trust in this FO than any other group we've had...
I think Sashi, Dorsey and Berry all deserve some acknowledgement and credit with regards to where the 2021 Browns are. Sashi tore the old down completely and didn't try to use band aids or half measures. He stuck to the plan regardless. He saved draft picks by not trading for AJ McCarron. Dorsey made some great picks and trades - by no means perfect, but some of his acquisitions are the corner stone of what we have. If he hadn't blundered so totally with Freddie and insisted on sticking by the blunder he may still be here, who knows. Berry by comparison seems like a surgeon and has seemingly made the most out of what he's been given, made smart moves, and has continued to acquire top talent while still keeping an eye on the future and cap management. Without each of them we wouldn't have the team we do. Anyone - like me - who believes that we are placed for a deep play off run should be thanking all 3. jmo
Not really. I guess you ignore what a great job and how critical they think Sashi was when all he did was something anyone could have done if their boss told them to.
Their boss didn't tell them to. The Plan was pitched to Haslam and he bought it.
So then he approved of ripping the team to the ground. If not it never would have been done. In the end it was a "Yeah, do that." by Haslam that allowed the scorched earth policy to move forward no matter how you slice it.
Here's the article I mentioned above. I'm posting because it's the basis of my arguments on the Sashi vs Hue debates that go on, but also because it's a great piece of journalism that happens to be about my Browns. You've all read it before at least once, but personally, I don't mind coming back to it every so often. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2579...history-collide
Here's the part applicable to the teardown quoted below.
Quote:
By September 2015, many in the front office sensed that Farmer would be gone. It was perceived as an optimal time to pitch Haslam on a new vision. That fall, Haslam, team president Alec Scheiner, Sashi Brown and a few others visited executives in other sports in an effort to gain insights that might help steady the Browns, if not ultimately revolutionize football. Scheiner, Brown & Co. wanted to open Haslam's eyes to a different way of running a team, based heavily but not solely on analytics. The executives prepared a document for Haslam titled "Football Strategy Outline"to sell him on a radical rebounding plan based on a few years of pain that could pay off in many years of reward. The idea called for the Browns to tear down to the studs and commit to a four-year rebuild, primarily through the draft, mixing sabermetrics and traditional methods -- similar in many ways to Banner's original vision. The group visited Theo Epstein of the Chicago Cubs, Sam Presti of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Mark Shapiro of the Toronto Blue Jays and Paul DePodesta of the New York Mets. Haslam asked the majority of the questions. One exec told him that if he were to commit to the plan, he should "not go to any games for two years." Haslam seemed sold. The plan appealed to his voracious appetite for bold new ideas and for bold new hires.
So yes, rebuilding isn't something new. But the plan was a Rebuild (with a capital R), and that was what was unique, and that what was Sashi brought to the table. No, rebuilding is not a new concept, but at the same time, no other GM had intentionally undertaken such a massive teardown. That's what makes it unique. It was pitched to Haslam, and he accepted, even with that little statement at the end.
Alignment: We are aligned, from top to bottom, that we will explore all available data before making decisions. We know that as long as we adhere to the process it will equate to success over time.
(Browns and Analytics, thread title.)
Historically this may be one of the harder years to get to a super bowl esp. out of the AFC.
Historically, teams in less competitive divisions, seem to have a more consistent path to Super Bowl wins,
Of the 8 divisions in the NFL, which is the least competitive AFC division, and which is the least competitive NFC division, for the upcoming 2021 season.
In the AFC it's obviously the AFC South if you believe Carson Wentz is a dumpster fire, and a consistent dumpster fire, and I've felt that for a LONG WHILE. (Personally I never saw Wentz play before Foles took his team out of his hands and won a Super Bowl, if anyone has seen absolutely anything from Wentz since then, I don't know what they've watched because he's been a consistent dumpster fire of a regular season quarterback.)
In the AFC, for competition, the Bills, have the Dolphins 'and Patriots to worry about for the East div.
The Chiefs, have the Raiders and the Chargers to worry about, Maybe even the Broncos if DeShaun Watson were sent there. For the west div.
The Steelers, have the Ravens and Browns to worry about. For the central; "North" div.
On that data point alone the Titans are the AFC representative in the SB in 2021, (historically!), but that's why they play the games.
So the NFC, Which division is the Least competitive.
In the NFC north, the Vikings will provide competition for the Packers, as the Vikings are poised for a bounce back and uptick on 7-9 from laast year with 2 positives, Vet QB Kirk Cousins is set for a rare upside year of revenge motivation and peaking career arch motivation. 2. Their defense will return D.Hunter from injury who is one player similar to top pass rushers. (And the Vikings play the AFC north)
In the NFC south, who will compete with the Buccaneers? Saints? No, No truly veteran QB. Falcons? No, Falcons are ticking downward on all tracks. Their Qb is way past their prime too. The Panthers, Sam Darnold, probably not this year. So no competition in div. for the Buccs.
NFC East, Whew. 4 times bad = competition, The Redskins... I mean, why do they hate to try and get a Quarterback, even for 50 years, What the football? That's their name the Washington team football. It will remain a competitive bad results division.
NFC West, The 49ers, have 2 problems that will keep their division competitive, ( besides Wilson and seattles coach, and besides Arizona being (a very mirrored image in team construction of the Browns), besides those, the 2 problems in the 49ers own camp are, 1, they'll go too soon to the new QB. 2. I forget, may have been the Seattle thing. Seattles problem, where's there running game.
There are really only 3 teams in the NFC with a chance, maybe 5. The Buccs, historically are in the weakest division, and have the easiest path to represent the NFC in 2021. The Buccaneers also improved their runningbacks.
I'm not really sure how that changes anything or makes a point. The basis used in those moves were still commonly known by all.
If you trade down you get future picks. If you cut high paid players you acquire salary cap for the future. Those are all known by anyone in the NFL and any fans that know anything about the game.
Even by your own quote it gave examples of how this strategy had been used before. It wasn't some new concept. The only thing different was it hadn't been used in the NFL. But the blueprint for this strategy already existed. And without the go ahead from Haslam none of it would have happened.
Here's the article I mentioned above. I'm posting because it's the basis of my arguments on the Sashi vs Hue debates that go on, but also because it's a great piece of journalism that happens to be about my Browns. You've all read it before at least once, but personally, I don't mind coming back to it every so often. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2579...history-collide
Here's the part applicable to the teardown quoted below.
Quote:
By September 2015, many in the front office sensed that Farmer would be gone. It was perceived as an optimal time to pitch Haslam on a new vision. That fall, Haslam, team president Alec Scheiner, Sashi Brown and a few others visited executives in other sports in an effort to gain insights that might help steady the Browns, if not ultimately revolutionize football. Scheiner, Brown & Co. wanted to open Haslam's eyes to a different way of running a team, based heavily but not solely on analytics. The executives prepared a document for Haslam titled "Football Strategy Outline"to sell him on a radical rebounding plan based on a few years of pain that could pay off in many years of reward. The idea called for the Browns to tear down to the studs and commit to a four-year rebuild, primarily through the draft, mixing sabermetrics and traditional methods -- similar in many ways to Banner's original vision. The group visited Theo Epstein of the Chicago Cubs, Sam Presti of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Mark Shapiro of the Toronto Blue Jays and Paul DePodesta of the New York Mets. Haslam asked the majority of the questions. One exec told him that if he were to commit to the plan, he should "not go to any games for two years." Haslam seemed sold. The plan appealed to his voracious appetite for bold new ideas and for bold new hires.
So yes, rebuilding isn't something new. But the plan was a Rebuild (with a capital R), and that was what was unique, and that what was Sashi brought to the table. No, rebuilding is not a new concept, but at the same time, no other GM had intentionally undertaken such a massive teardown. That's what makes it unique. It was pitched to Haslam, and he accepted, even with that little statement at the end.
Forget it. He just doesn't get it. It's no biggie.
Oh I get it and I've explained it. It's not me who thinks a guy who couldn't keep his job, who simply copied a model that had already been used in other sports is some kind of innovator.
Here's the article I mentioned above. I'm posting because it's the basis of my arguments on the Sashi vs Hue debates that go on, but also because it's a great piece of journalism that happens to be about my Browns. You've all read it before at least once, but personally, I don't mind coming back to it every so often. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2579...history-collide
Here's the part applicable to the teardown quoted below.
Quote:
By September 2015, many in the front office sensed that Farmer would be gone. It was perceived as an optimal time to pitch Haslam on a new vision. That fall, Haslam, team president Alec Scheiner, Sashi Brown and a few others visited executives in other sports in an effort to gain insights that might help steady the Browns, if not ultimately revolutionize football. Scheiner, Brown & Co. wanted to open Haslam's eyes to a different way of running a team, based heavily but not solely on analytics. The executives prepared a document for Haslam titled "Football Strategy Outline"to sell him on a radical rebounding plan based on a few years of pain that could pay off in many years of reward. The idea called for the Browns to tear down to the studs and commit to a four-year rebuild, primarily through the draft, mixing sabermetrics and traditional methods -- similar in many ways to Banner's original vision. The group visited Theo Epstein of the Chicago Cubs, Sam Presti of the Oklahoma City Thunder, Mark Shapiro of the Toronto Blue Jays and Paul DePodesta of the New York Mets. Haslam asked the majority of the questions. One exec told him that if he were to commit to the plan, he should "not go to any games for two years." Haslam seemed sold. The plan appealed to his voracious appetite for bold new ideas and for bold new hires.
So yes, rebuilding isn't something new. But the plan was a Rebuild (with a capital R), and that was what was unique, and that what was Sashi brought to the table. No, rebuilding is not a new concept, but at the same time, no other GM had intentionally undertaken such a massive teardown. That's what makes it unique. It was pitched to Haslam, and he accepted, even with that little statement at the end.
It's a great article. Nuggets of information galore.
The Cleveland Browns continue to fortify their embrace of football analytics. The front office led by GM Andrew Berry and chief strategist Paul DePodesta has added more innovative analytical minds to the fold.
The team officially added Udit Ranasaria as a football research analyst, part of several new hires to the front office earlier this month. Ransaria is noted for his physics-based models on the passing game and player projections.
Per his Twitter account, Rishav Dutta is also joining the Browns this fall. Dutta will be a research assistant for the team. He is part of the NFL ScrapR analytical movement and a Carnegie Mellon computer scientist as well. A sampling of his unique football research work is available on his website.
It’s a broadening of viewpoints and creative analytical applications of football.
The Cleveland Browns continue to fortify their embrace of football analytics. The front office led by GM Andrew Berry and chief strategist Paul DePodesta has added more innovative analytical minds to the fold.
The team officially added Udit Ranasaria as a football research analyst, part of several new hires to the front office earlier this month. Ransaria is noted for his physics-based models on the passing game and player projections.
Per his Twitter account, Rishav Dutta is also joining the Browns this fall. Dutta will be a research assistant for the team. He is part of the NFL ScrapR analytical movement and a Carnegie Mellon computer scientist as well. A sampling of his unique football research work is available on his website.
It’s a broadening of viewpoints and creative analytical applications of football.
The Cleveland Browns continue to fortify their embrace of football analytics. The front office led by GM Andrew Berry and chief strategist Paul DePodesta has added more innovative analytical minds to the fold.
The team officially added Udit Ranasaria as a football research analyst, part of several new hires to the front office earlier this month. Ransaria is noted for his physics-based models on the passing game and player projections.
Per his Twitter account, Rishav Dutta is also joining the Browns this fall. Dutta will be a research assistant for the team. He is part of the NFL ScrapR analytical movement and a Carnegie Mellon computer scientist as well. A sampling of his unique football research work is available on his website.
It’s a broadening of viewpoints and creative analytical applications of football.
Rishav Dutta has done a lot of work to "add the 3rd dimension to data tracking". It's actually pretty fascinating and could pay dividends with a QB like Mayfield that seems to favor rifling every pass and leaves you saying "damn, if he'd had just put a little touch on that" way too often... Could also be helpful in determining best velocity, launch angles, etc, for ease of tracking long passes by receivers.
Like Purp's sig: "Fear us, for we have Rishav Dutta!" Just not feeling it yet. I'll come around.
I do not care who wins us games.
Go, Browns!
When I read, "His unique analytics approach sample is available on his web site." I feel like, Isn't that sort of like the My Pillow guy and his "Patented fill" approach to pillow guts.
It's not a heartwarming thought to worry about a future where this leads to the Browns adding something as dumb as that 10 year old who could pitch in MLB after his arm was reconstructed, in that fictional Disney Movie!
Stupid they're going to add a guy out of Valdosta state, but his hands are 16 inches wide.
If they need a computer to see a football player when one is in front of them, they're done.
We plucked this one off the tree at 21 years old. Seems like our main strategy for hiring to the analytics dept is "early and often".
Upside: Besides the vast amount of data accrued in so many categories, the more talent we "hoard" the less there is to go around. Thinking of the hundreds of millions it takes to run an NFL team, it makes sense to spend a very small percentage on keeping elite talent in house, a drop in the bucket in the big scheme of things no matter how large the department becomes.
Downside: Too Much Information! The most important job becomes navigating and directing information and it's actual function on gameday. I remember reading John Naisbitt's "Megatrends" back in the day (prophetic!). He talked about information overload. For example, there came a time in the 70s where the scientific community realized that although an experiment had probably already been done to solve almost any problem, it was easier to conduct your own than dig through mountains of information to get the results. Very much like today's search engines and the fact that many times you feel like you have to try to "trick them" into giving you the info you're searching for, no matter how simple and mundane.
It's almost as if the person who decides "who, what, where, when, how" the data applies is much more important than the genius who presents it.
Probably more of an icing on the cake type deal. I would guess that it helps answer the "high-intellect" and "capable of critical thought" questions though. In other words, not just another geek that can manipulate models and work with physics equations that have already been created by others.
Hmmmm. Seems Baker's arm strength is in the elite category. Who were the detractors that started off saying he had a noodle arm and eventually moved on to claim it was merely average. . . . that has zero correlation to his ability to play the position, read defenses, lead receivers or his accuracy ... but his arm strength was certainly mentioned by many who didn't like his selection.
This may or may not be applicable, but a big thing in playing chess is anticipation. Good/great players are making moves and reacting to their opponent, but are always thinking 3-4-5 or more moves ahead. You have your strategy, the moves of your opponent, and then figuring out what that means on the future of the match.
A competitive chess player is someone that is taking the information they're being given in-game, applying it to their preparation (established chess openings/strategies) and assessing what that means for further on in the game and how they should be responding.
And I believe Andrew Healy, Vice President, Strategy, who has been with the Browns since 2016 had Baker rated above and beyond other QBs in his model projection.
And I believe Andrew Healy, Vice President, Strategy, who has been with the Browns since 2016 had Baker rated above and beyond other QBs in his model projection.
We plucked this one off the tree at 21 years old. Seems like our main strategy for hiring to the analytics dept is "early and often".
Upside: Besides the vast amount of data accrued in so many categories, the more talent we "hoard" the less there is to go around. Thinking of the hundreds of millions it takes to run an NFL team, it makes sense to spend a very small percentage on keeping elite talent in house, a drop in the bucket in the big scheme of things no matter how large the department becomes.
Downside: Too Much Information! The most important job becomes navigating and directing information and it's actual function on gameday. I remember reading John Naisbitt's "Megatrends" back in the day (prophetic!). He talked about information overload. For example, there came a time in the 70s where the scientific community realized that although an experiment had probably already been done to solve almost any problem, it was easier to conduct your own than dig through mountains of information to get the results. Very much like today's search engines and the fact that many times you feel like you have to try to "trick them" into giving you the info you're searching for, no matter how simple and mundane.
It's almost as if the person who decides "who, what, where, when, how" the data applies is much more important than the genius who presents it.
Probably part of hiring younger guys is for guys like Depo to keep up with the latest and greatest trends in the field.
Plus, Depo is here as long as he wants in all probability, so people are going to want to move around.
The Cleveland Browns continue to fortify their embrace of football analytics. The front office led by GM Andrew Berry and chief strategist Paul DePodesta has added more innovative analytical minds to the fold.
The team officially added Udit Ranasaria as a football research analyst, part of several new hires to the front office earlier this month. Ransaria is noted for his physics-based models on the passing game and player projections.
Per his Twitter account, Rishav Dutta is also joining the Browns this fall. Dutta will be a research assistant for the team. He is part of the NFL ScrapR analytical movement and a Carnegie Mellon computer scientist as well. A sampling of his unique football research work is available on his website.
It’s a broadening of viewpoints and creative analytical applications of football.
Another thought I had on this to add to some previous comments.
Depo is somewhat of a Godfather in the area of sports analytics. His job is to stay a step ahead. I read somewhere we have the largest analytics dept. in the NFL. I think it is now up to 8 people.
I think part of Depos method is to now have various analysists working on various methods but not so much know how Depo and maybe his top assistant put everything together. The military does this all the time to keep things top secret. Everybody has some sort of idea, but few know exactly how it is put together.
That way, if and when some of these people leave for other teams they can't walk right in and tell other teams exactly what it is that we are doing with the data.
Looks to me like each of them bring a new specialized way of analyzing the data, different ways to measure and accumulate usable data, or they are just brilliant at what they do. This has to be one of the smartest rooms in all of business, let alone sports.
Looks to me like each of them bring a new specialized way of analyzing the data, different ways to measure and accumulate usable data, or they are just brilliant at what they do. This has to be one of the smartest rooms in all of business, let alone sports.
No doubt. Not only are those people thinking a step ahead of most of us, they are many steps ahead.
All anybody has to do is look up some videos or articles on Depo, or any of these people when they start getting in to the nuts and bolts of they are are reviewing and how they go about that review.
Rather humbling. Like I said, I am glad they work for our team.
Hmmmm. Seems Baker's arm strength is in the elite category. Who were the detractors that started off saying he had a noodle arm and eventually moved on to claim it was merely average. . . . that has zero correlation to his ability to play the position, read defenses, lead receivers or his accuracy ... but his arm strength was certainly mentioned by many who didn't like his selection.
Surprised by that chart … Baker’s arm is a top level talent.
It would seem to me that IF he can improve his 1st-2nd-3rd read/progression that he can be a very good QB
I saw that the first play when he threw a bullet to Landry and Landry was like, what the hell was that... damn I need to be ready for some heat coming in.
Baker's arm is fine, Baker has all the tools to be a successful QB and appears to have the desire as well. It takes time to develop a NFL QB, but at this point in time he is ours and a number of teams wish he was theirs.
The way I look at those charts, they are a minimum criteria. Dalton rates low on the max velocity, but the gameday story appears different, in comparison, Mahommes has a very strong arm, but is smack in the middle of the velocity in the game. All that tells me, is that he is not Derek Anderson, he adjusts his throws for the situation.
And I believe Andrew Healy, Vice President, Strategy, who has been with the Browns since 2016 had Baker rated above and beyond other QBs in his model projection.
Bakers arm strength isn’t a problem. He throws a live ball and when he sets his feet right he is deadly accurate. I honestly believe he will take us to a Super Bowl title real soon. Maybe more than one.
And I believe Andrew Healy, Vice President, Strategy, who has been with the Browns since 2016 had Baker rated above and beyond other QBs in his model projection.
So in other words all those people shouldn't be thanking Dorsey for drafting Mayfield but rather thanking him for not screwing it up?
I say it could be both.
In my mind he was the #1 QB, no brainer selection. It wouldn't have been hard for me to take him #1, so thank-you Dorsey for selecting Baker and not blowing it.
It sounds like a count, but to your original comment about people being thanked a lot more for a lot less, if we take it as a perceived thanks, I don't have any control over who gives thanks.
If whoever you feel doesn't get enough thanks, thank them. I don't think people need a equal amount of thanks as someone else to feel appreciated.
I thanked John Dorsey. Why are you complaining to me?
Another thought I had on this to add to some previous comments.
Depo is somewhat of a Godfather in the area of sports analytics. His job is to stay a step ahead. I read somewhere we have the largest analytics dept. in the NFL. I think it is now up to 8 people.
I think part of Depos method is to now have various analysists working on various methods but not so much know how Depo and maybe his top assistant put everything together. The military does this all the time to keep things top secret. Everybody has some sort of idea, but few know exactly how it is put together.
That way, if and when some of these people leave for other teams they can't walk right in and tell other teams exactly what it is that we are doing with the data.
According to Bob Lazar that was how Area 51 was run.
No truth whatsoever, then, to the rumor that they are in Berea, reverse engineering the UFO defense for the DC to use this year. Our MAJESTIK - 8. The Browns meet the greys beside Lake Erie LOLetc.
I don't know about that, but do know that is a method to keep things on the hush hush.
Have various people working on small, specific tasks, not knowing exactly what it is they are working on or how it is going to be used.
The Roman generals had their "musterion", or master battle plan, of which individual commanders had only their part revealed. After a successful battle he would gather them together to reveal how the whole battle plan had been laid out...the "mystery."
Analytics, is getting the most out of unexpected decisions.
If the decisions are expected there is nothing to analyze. Like a nascar track if the road curves left the cars are going to turn left. If it's expected, and a given, then it's not a decision at all. Explained it for you.
All I know is this is the first year that DePodesta is in control as in the mastermind. Everything is hitting.
What I've noticed is that there has been a plan that makes sense, and most of the players accumulated address particular needs. They assembled the best OL in the league, grabbed a promising QB, and surrounded him with all the tools. Next step, turn weaknesses on D into strengths.
Every step in this process has been focused, logical and methodical. It's the main reason I've taken off my s#-colored glasses, and replaced them with a pair of Cool-Rays. Yes- the process excites me more than even the sparkling players on the team, because they are only here due to The Plan. I am becoming increasingly confident that this trend will continue, as long as these guys continue to install the system and culture successfully. Players will come and go, but I'm becoming convinced that we're witnessing the foundation of a potential dynasty.
Last point: Browns fans have had a blissful 2.5 years of drama-free administration from 76 Groza. This is the first time- theveryfirst time this team has been led by a unified, professional FO and coaching staff. I used to complain that Browns fans were treated to more drama in the offices than they ever saw on the field.
3-13. 4-12. 1-15. 0-16.
It's been a long, long wait for respectability to return to this storied franchise.
Sometimes things happen by accident. Most of the time it is a well thought out and and implemented plan behind the success.
And yes, as you said, players come and go. Sometimes popular players. As long as we follow the plan and the plan guideposts, we stand a good chance of remaining relevant for a long time.
All I know is this is the first year that DePodesta is in control as in the mastermind. Everything is hitting.
What I've noticed is that there has been a plan that makes sense, and most of the players accumulated address particular needs. They assembled the best OL in the league, grabbed a promising QB, and surrounded him with all the tools. Next step, turn weaknesses on D into strengths.
Every step in this process has been focused, logical and methodical. It's the main reason I've taken off my s#-colored glasses, and replaced them with a pair of Cool-Rays. Yes- the process excites me more than even the sparkling players on the team, because they are only here due to The Plan. I am becoming increasingly confident that this trend will continue, as long as these guys continue to install the system and culture successfully. Players will come and go, but I'm becoming convinced that we're witnessing the foundation of a potential dynasty.
Last point: Browns fans have had a blissful 2.5 years of drama-free administration from 76 Groza. This is the first time- theveryfirst time this team has been led by a unified, professional FO and coaching staff. I used to complain that Browns fans were treated to more drama in the offices than they ever saw on the field.
3-13. 4-12. 1-15. 0-16.
It's been a long, long wait for respectability to return to this storied franchise.
I'm really glad I stuck it out.
I want to add to that that there is a clear plan/intention regarding the personalities/traits that are evident in the players that the FO is bringing in.
Tough, smart & accountable...it's not just a slogan with the FO.
Slogans are only meaningful if you put them in to practice. We seem to do that.
You are also right about the players we draft. That also carries over to FA players. We seem to be fairly keyed in on player market worth. We seem to set a number that is fair, then stick to it. That might not always be popular, but that is an example we can see of having a plan and working the plan.
Analytics, is getting the most out of unexpected decisions.
If the decisions are expected there is nothing to analyze. Like a nascar track if the road curves left the cars are going to turn left. If it's expected, and a given, then it's not a decision at all. Explained it for you.
The Browns need to make a decision on, for example, Nick Chubb's future with the team. It's an expected decision, but it still needs to be analyzed; do they extend him for 1 yr or 3, do they franchise him for 2 years and let him walk? Analytics will help with that expected decision, right?
I'd expect that the decision and all possible backup plans have long since been made. If they're waiting, they're waiting for a reason.
It could be as simple as waiting until later in the season when we have an idea of next year's cap so that we can better plan the impact of his and Baker's new deals together. Indecision isn't something these guys have an issue with.
I'd expect that the decision and all possible backup plans have long since been made. If they're waiting, they're waiting for a reason.
It could be as simple as waiting until later in the season when we have an idea of next year's cap so that we can better plan the impact of his and Baker's new deals together. Indecision isn't something these guys have an issue with.
I've been saying a version of that for weeks.. we have CAP space next year that will kinda be back on track..(pre Covid) Or so it appears.. I have to believe that Baker and Chubbs agents know this. I don't think for one second that Berry will let either get away.. and eventually, I think thatd extends to Ward as well as later to Hunt. (that's if they don't do something with Chubb now.)
Eventually we need to take care of Wyatt and if my guess is correct, we may want to keep Clowney..... (just a guess based on what I think he'll contribute this season)
Baker isn't in any hurry to sign until the cap number become clear and some clarity develops with Allen and Jackson. I doubt we will be the first to sign. IMO at least one of those guys will have to ink a contract before Baker and agent think about doing so...Baker knows we aren't going to let him walk, so why be in a hurry?
As for Chubb and some others, I am not so sure we are in a big hurry to get those deals done.
Yes, Chubb is a fan favorite and clearly a very good running back. However my feeling is we view running back as a transitional position where running back and long term just don't fit under normal circumstances. Chubb may be beyond normal, and we can adjust for that, but I don't see a situation where the Browns have the, or one of the highest paid backs in the league. I could see us moving on from Chubb if he and his agent aren't somewhat grounded in their contract demands.
With the current state of our O-line, I think we could find a back who could put up similar numbers. No, maybe not as good, but good enough to gain the yards needed to maintain a plus NFL running game.
Note...I think we will sign him and want to sign him. I am just saying the numbers have to work, and our numbers might not be as great as some other teams.
I agree, but I think it is also a tryout year that could lead to something longer term, but also I think it is - hopefully - a way of setting the bar for how to gauge/judge what to expect opposite Myles no matter who we put there.
For the tryout part, his abilities against the Run aren't questioned. We WILL get to see what our pass defense can do when teams just cannot run on us. With him and Billings, teams are going to have a tough row to hoe against us. However, it's the pass rush aspect we're likely wanting to see. Can the rest of his game live up to his hype, and contract demands, for something longer term. He's absolutely setting his contract value here this year, but probably not for every team. He's going to show what he can be when a team can give him linemates that can carry some of the load so that he isn't the Lone Ranger out there.
Everyone knows it was a trinity that created the new Browns dynasty. The holy trinity of Cleveland. I won't even mention their names for fear of repeating the obvious.
I think Clowney was a band-aid, and they'll want to move on as quickly as possible. Just a gut feeling of mine.
Certainly that's the most likely situation. If that's what it is, so be it.
I just think that Clowney has really never had a guy like Garrett to work off of (maybe watt is the closest)... And that might just be the most exciting thing for him and you gotta ask, will that lead to him reaching his true potential finally. If that's what ends up happening, why would we let him go? I mean other than the CAP.
A person who is a A+ run defender and a B+ pass rusher isn't exactly a bust IMO. (not saying you think so)
Another though...well, a couple...The measure of a good pass rusher isn't always measured by sack totals. A person who can consistently pressure the QB brings value to a D.
How do we know that Clowney didn't add much to Watt's success? A lot goes in to measuring a player worth, and I for one am pretty happy we have Clowney. He is going to be a tremendous bookend for Myles.
If Clowney brings what I think he will, I doubt we will be able to sign him with everybody else we are looking at signing.
Then again, you never know. We(the front office and coach) may determine his value to the team is greater than the value somebody else brings, somebody we all feel is a lock to get a new contract.
When determining value you have to determine net value. If we feel that replacing anything Clowney brings will be harder and create a bigger loss then someone else (position) on the team, maybe he stays and someone else walks.
As fans it has been pretty easy for us to make the determination on who stays and who walks. Things are different now, and good teams have to let good players go all the time when they have to make decisions based on the greater good.
It should be interesting even if at times it ticks us off as to why in the heck we did what we did.
That's all a damn good point on value/potential, though the expectation with him was always the A+ pass rusher. I don't know if I've ever read of anyone looking at JJ Watt's production without Clowney to see how it trended.
It would be amazing to have him regain his expected form AND have us lock him up long term... we'd have bookend DE's for at least four more years.
It's pretty simple really. He signed a one year deal. If he plans to cash in big next year he has something to prove to 32 NFL teams this year. Complicated math I know.
Clowney could easily ball out- why, because he's been hurt so often, as a number one pick, he's been DOUBLE TEAMED his whole career. He ain't the MAN here, Miles is...he be smiling. He won't be chipped or beat on nearly as much. And he seems to like the guys- I think he might decide to stay....GO Browns!!!
We simply don't see this the same way. He played in Houston for years when J.J. watt was "the man" and he was second fiddle. To me this is almost the exact same situation as his 2015-2018 situation.
We simply don't see this the same way. He played in Houston for years when J.J. watt was "the man" and he was second fiddle. To me this is almost the exact same situation as his 2015-2018 situation.
I get your point but Clowney and Watt were only healthy together for a full season once. Clowney’s best seasons with the Texans came in 2016-2018 (he made the Pro Bowl each season). In 16 and 17 Watt played a total of eight games. In 18 Watt and Clowney basically played a full season together and both made the Pro Bowl.
The biggest concern with Clowney is his health. If he is healthy, or is capable of being healthy, then he will produce.
I think anyone expecting to see eleventy-seven sacks, 88 TFL's, and a bunch of stripped balls from Clowney will be sorely disappointed. He almost certainly won't touch Myles' sack numbers, but what he WILL do is lock down his responsibilities in the Run game AND get pressures, hits, and sacks at a rate better than Vernon. I have absolutely zero doubts about that. As long as he stays healthy, that's his floor because that is, and has been, his game when healthy.
Also, of note for that 2018 season in Houston: Clowney was listed as the Right OLB. They ran a 3-4 pretty much the entire time he was there, and most of the time, he was OLB. His role will be a good bit different here.
Read all the responses, all good. I remember Clowney just dominating games in college, why he was 1 pick. His health has let him down and he's been pretty smart- NFL, not for long, he's made good money. If he's healthy, it will be interesting to see his numbers and his impact for our team. I hope he's a stud.
Other issues, how do analytics guys look at value of Guards. We just signed Chubb for less money than I thought we could. Saw an article where Teller could/should make more money than Chubb makes...do you think we'll pay near top dollar for Teller, JMHO, I love his pancake blocks, but really, is he worth more than Chubb....I don't think so....GO Browns!!!
Wasn't he the highest rated guard in the NFL last year? That makes him elite IMHO and you pay for elite. But I have a feeling his contract will get done and it will be another team friendly discount because HE WANTS TO BE HERE.
I honestly hope the whole damn team buys into that. If Hunt, Chubb, and guys like Higgins can do it, I hope the rest follow suit.
1st the point about team friendly contracts is very important to the long and short terms success of every team in the league after decades of paying more then we should for talent to come here it's a great change to see us be able to tie up some top talent for less then premium prices.
It means we can make moves roster wise when we have a chance to make needed improvements. Players are still very well paid. Chubb making a million a month isn't going to starve him anytime soon that is for sure. It truly is a win win the player makes really good money the team is able to get or obtain talent in areas of need and that feeds into a winning program as well.
A part of that is honesty and trust between the player and the organization Ski has a great reputation with both players and management and everyone is working and pulling in the same direction. That is really refreshing and means the Browns as an organization can have sustained success and for the players it means winning and at the end of the day it may not grow their bank account it sure makes going to work each day more rewarding. IMO players that value winning as much as the value money are really the sort of players you want to attract and retain.
With the cap the way it is we see teams all the time losing top talent due to cap issues. In a sort of a way players can undermine their teams by demanding huge paydays and really it does undermine the roster. It will be very interesting to see where Baker lands. I sure hope that at the end of the day he places more value in winning then he does in eating up a huge chunk of the salary cap. I know Brady did it for years in New England, his frustration grew out of giving the team huge discounts and then the team not spending the money to improve the players around him. There is a balancing act sort of here, if the players think that their being dealt with fairly and honestly I think we can truly keep and add talent and that is going to be key to sustained success.
I also see how the Browns are currently building their roster, they have a plan for replacement built into this roster. I truly believe that we may depending on how guys on the back end like Peoples Jones and Swartz develop this year to replace OBJ and Landry with cheaper contracts. Right now OBJ and Landry eat up more resources then their positions really should 30 million on receivers is to much. It's not that they don't bring great play but 15% of the cap on 2 players is to much IMO. I truly look for us to make changes next year in our receivers room and if done right we won't skip a beat.
Teller I wouldn't pay top money to I understand he was rated the best but his contract shouldn't exceed the value of his position. I truly think that Callahan is what makes this O Line shine and not so much individual players. Again we could see a bit of a shake up along the line next year as the youngsters begin to develop and are ready to replace guys who may think their worth more then they are. I don't get the feeling that any of our guys don't understand that we can't pay everyone like their the best at their position even if they are because of salary cap stuff.
Will have to pay Bake I sure hope he isn't greedy and if he is reasonable he can help keep his own name in the headlines thru team success and can actually make more money off the field as a result by doing advertising and that sort of thing. These guys get these outside dollars as a result of performing on Sunday if they break the bank on the field they may find success and outside money much much harder to come by.
A vast money making machine. They chew up players and spit them out. It is a business. I have no problem with players getting as much as possible.
However, when you are making a million a month. How much is enough? The money is generational.
Losing. Nothing is worse. You compete to win. You go through all the training. Make all the sacrifices to improve. Why? To win.
Bitonio went through 1-31. Joe Thomas is just a great guy. I know the money is great. But damn losing really sucks. Joe was an exception. He loves Cleveland. But it must have been brutal to go what he went through.
BTB you are right. If you are not planing for replacement. You will suffer.
The more we win. The more the reputation spreads about what a great place to play. The more others learn about the coaching staff and how good they are. The more team friendly deals we will get.
JJ3 could have played elsewhere for more money. Chubb did not want to play anywhere else. That stuff gets noticed by players.
The Browns are building now and for long term success.
I would hope that the guys that line up around him (he's a cog (an important one, but still a piece) in the #1 Oline) influences his math. With Chubb's extension, we already have the most expensive offense in the NFL... and we still have to pay Mayfield. Chubb is also elite, but he didn't exactly set the market with his extension. They were clever with him, giving him decent money with the extra benefit of him being able to double-dip. With Chubb signed, we need to be really careful with guys like Teller and Higgins (another guy that really really needs to get paid) until we get Mayfield figured out.
Player getting as much as possible and team friendly deals are opposites, you sighted both. I hope we don't get into Rogers kind of deal- Mayfield and Higgins have got a "bond", yet I'd pay People-Jones more for sure. Ski said it right, we can't keep everyone, hope our draft blunders are over and we keep/get guys who are talented, available, and accountable- opposite of "Money Boy" and "Flash-he's not available"....GO Browns!!!
Agree with your statements, lots of folks think money is king, yet as Chubb showed, if you get enough money and have great environment- why ruin a good thing. I don't know about Houston. I'd agree they did right thing getting rid of their GM and coach, he stunk and hurt their organization big time. History wise, where we are now is SO different than where we were= dang, how do you suck for decades- how many first round picks did we just throw away- we were the CLOWNS, no more, thank God....GO Browns!!!
How many games do the Browns have to win for Stefanski to keep his job. 5, 6?
If the Browns start 0-7 or even have a 5 game streak of losses some time during the season, would that make you rethink the playoff hopes.
er. If at some point in the season the Browns don't win 5 games in a row, and it worked out that that would be the only way the Browns could qualify for the playoffs, then where on the schedule is the easiest stretch of games to try and get those 5 wins in a row. at KC Houston Chicago At Minnesota At LA Chargers Arizona Denver Pittsburgh At Cincinnati At New England Detroit At Baltimore Bye Week Baltimore LV Raiders At Green Bay At Pittsburgh Cincinnati
Analytics, Can we analyze how the Browns inability to lure decent role players at Corner, or keep decent ones, and Greedy or others not panning out at corner,
Led to the Browns to reach for position in drafting Greg Newsome in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft and kept either Terrace Marshall or Elijah Moore from being a Browns draft pick. (and will lead to the Browns to reach for position and draft a corner early in 2022.) (and will lead to the Brownsto reach for position and draft a cornerback early in 2023.) continuing infinity.
A similar problem may have kept Julio Jones from being a Browns draft pick (yet his pre draft was less stellar, but he's about to probably be a hall of fame wide receiver.)
Least likely to happen? Bears to draft a hall of fame quarterback, or the Browns to draft a hall of fame wide receiver?
Analytics, Can we analyze how the Browns inability to lure decent role players at Corner, or keep decent ones, and Greedy or others not panning out at corner,
Who did we miss out on? We did get Hill... Is he not a Decent Role player?
Analytics, Can we analyze how the Browns inability to lure decent role players at Corner, or keep decent ones, and Greedy or others not panning out at corner,
Led to the Browns to reach for position in drafting Greg Newsome in the first round of the 2021 NFL draft and kept either Terrace Marshall or Elijah Moore from being a Browns draft pick. (and will lead to the Browns to reach for position and draft a corner early in 2022.) (and will lead to the Brownsto reach for position and draft a cornerback early in 2023.) continuing infinity.
You asked the first, Because I wrote the 2nd.
It's not a short answer, it's not a one word answer, it's 25years of posts on Dawgtalkers making the same point, somebody could write a book, I'm not a writer, in some posters' views ... clueless. Reach, ... Start QB. ... start, Cap,?? how did the , or did! did the cap drop due to covid lead to more Qb's going in the first, ... than the avg year per draft... start at QB, for reach definition, 32 individual teams with individual (qb situations in a given year effect how many qb's go ..(in this case before #26, ) and the overall the overall siginificance of the Qb position vs, so many other on football field positions is teams only need on an all healthy day, just 1, yet ... and they play more snaps than kicker and punter so we can all agree they're siginificantly more important, than the other postitions that need only 1, (All this! <) just to define how the weight: of 5 qbs. in the first? (memory?) 4 qb's, prior to #26 overall Effected! the (reach percentage) ( Of the decision not the player, of the decision not the player, were discussing the decision to take him, not him as a player.)
of what ended up being CB 4 on the year (drft day 1,), ... Given!!! (2 givens) Given that i'll process the individual draft as a year and don't prescribe to a philosophy, (in large part, not 100% part, but in mostly part) to the philosophy that a draft is a conglomerate of multiple years that can be looked at not individually, ie. each individual year as it's own entity. (< which is how I sort of large part see them)
And Given #2, That I can't go back on my argument from 2013- What!Ever!Year! that Ryan Tannehill was drafted later than the Browns trade up for Rb Trent Richardson, where I made the exact argument that , (at those times rules of collective bargening, still giving the big contracts To! the rookies at #1 overall, that in regards, to Qb's that year my argument was, ... as soon as the decision was publicly understood that RG3,and whomever the other was, were going to be off the table as Qb 1, for that year, that the right thing to do was;
to look at all the rest of the players, and #3,#4, whatever it is overall the Browns picked at, that year, to look at the Qb's and that Tannehill became Qb 1 on the year up for evaluation, and just by what I saw in 5 mins of his bowl game the, my ferver for hope the Browns would select him. <<< That that whole month's long argument that I made that year, goes in complete contradiction, to an argument that, Cb #4, can't be Cb #1 in how to look at (the reach percentage, Of the Decision again, not the player, but the decision to take the player, (Greg Newsome #26, round 1, in 2021.)
What is that ^ 1 out of 5 angles to look at that from, and I don't want to be a hypocrite from 7 years ago, (may be too late, I dunno) So, Role players!?... 2013, Haslems had bought the Browns August of 2012. 2013 profootball reference: Browns dbs. Games plus Games started.
Buster Skrine 16/15. Joe Haden (LCB, left corner) 15/15. (SS) T.J. Ward 16/16. (FS) Tashaun Gipson 16/15 2013 continues: role players, Browns, DB's Games then games started. Jordan Poyer, 9/0 Leon McFadden 16/2 Johnson Badmemosi 16/0 ... ... ... what's the flippin Point TL!
the 2020/2021 off season Browns were going into the 2021 NFL Draft with... (Enough/adequate, or Not enough, or Not nearly enough, Db's who had shown the consistency of... the best ability of availability, ie. the propensity to stay healthy and suit up for.
To Not demand, or show a "need" at corner. (that effects the "decision" to draft Greg Newsome, (not the player, again, this is not discussing whether he's a, or is going to be a good player or not
it's explaining, or ... asking, (analyizing), was/why/were, the Browns pigeon holed into a need, (ok of course not, they can pick whomever they feel like)
Did! were, was, there some "influence" of need, on the decision? And!
Is this a consistent pattern, ( Oh my gosh, the crux of it all! almost reaching a point FINALY.)
IS!!! this a consistent pattern of "needing corners" over a 20 year span, that never gets solved as each time the Browns enter an April draft.
Angle #3. ... The Browns Corner group vs. the other teams in the AFC North. (Short, what does the label Corner equal. vs. the label, coverage linebacker, vs. the label Safety that can cover.)
Are the Browns 3rd, in the division, in players labeled corner. (Does it even matter? ) ... ... ... Is hand soap body wash,- is body wash shampoo-, can you......., how important is a label.
I don't know. Does this pattern! (if it exists at all) Keep players by opportunity cost: : Opportunity cost is the thing you don't get by chosing something else, ie, you don't get a tight end, WR, or Qb, or OL, or DL, or Rb, or whatever, with any pick choice used on something else, (in this case db)
Offensive skill pos. players, (Which exist in limited supply, per year, per draft, per age of year they were born. Does this pattern keep Off. Skill position players per year off the Browns and onto other teams in the NFL,
and how does the NFL, or how do the NFL rules, As constructed for higher scoring games impact/increase the Weight/siginificance or "need" for Offensive skill position players, because, the game has changed to favor more high scoring games, nobody/ few/fewer games end with teams scoring 12 or less anymore, than 35 years ago. And offenses still score more than defenses, (I think. .. obviously it's effected by the defenses' ability to Stop! an offense, of course) <effect the reach percentage of the decision to take Greg Newsome at #26 vs. others>
I give up. The Browns are just. They are going to win a lot of games, hopefully they win them all.
Why did I become a Browns fan, I was young, I can't, I'll never be able to, Look it's just football, (< ya pfft.) Asking me to explain why I'm butthurt the Browns took a corner, for the umpteenth time, at the expense of taking an offensive skill position player, Is akin to asking why I'm a Browns Fan, fanatic, and maybe there isn't a responsible answer to that. And maybe that's alright.
Lots of words. No substance. A fairly typical TL post. Newsome was the right pick at 26. No WR was going to start over our starters. Newsome will be a day one starter. Ward has shown himself fragile. We needed the depth at the position. Period.
No. $ Mitchell was an excellent backup/depth guy that had versatility in the secondary. Newsome was picked to be an outside starter-caliber opposite Ward.
But you wanted to add a ‘replacement’ WR high in the draft to replace(?) Landry or OBJ? Newsome is going to make us forget T Mitch. He’s got all the skills needed to be a #1 CB and he’ll be playing our #2. If Ward can’t stay healthy Newsome will fill that #1 spot. ….then next year we can draft another CB…. That’ll make your head explode.
But you wanted to add a ‘replacement’ WR high in the draft to replace(?) Landry or OBJ?
Whoa! What I wanted to?
Maybe in the vacuum of only 3 players on earth, and pick the BPA, Elijah Moore Terrence Marshall and Greg Newsome that, So far, IMO, Newsome is not, the obvious stand out #1 BPA, of the 3. If need is not considered.
And the rest of your post, Corner next year? Wasn't that my original point 2 days ago, the Brian Allens, M.J. Stewarts, A.J.Greens, of role players, either make a situation in the draft, where the Browns needed either, Zero Cb's, or at least 3. (To actually address the "need" adequately, if it exists. or They'll be in the same spot come next April. ( How can they possibly be in the same spot next April, after their Super Bowl Winning ring design gets unveiled? )
Originally Posted By: PortlandDawg
Newsome is going to make us forget T Mitch. He's got all the skills needed to be a #1 Cb and he'll be playing our #2.
And you are basing this on Newsomes' about 6 games with Northwestern last year in college, vs. Mitchells 16+ with the Browns in the NFL, or Are you clearly observing, (as it was circa 1985, just saying), that Newsome is clearly outplaying Mitchell in camp to take his job? (Which is of course Horsecrap because Mitchell was already waived or traded whatever.) (And he wouldn't be taking Mitchell's spot he'd be taking Allens' or Stewarts' or Greens', They don't make teams like they used to)
JMHO, NFL, not for long, we've had OBJ/Landry for number of years, both are 5 11 and have reached their athletics peaks. They cost lots of dollars. Landry has set the bar professionally. After this year, time for DPJ, Higgins, Swartz, and TEs to take over. We are spending to much money on WRs. BIG talented beats Little talented most of the time. I want TEs and DPJ to get more throws vs the two talented scat backs we pay millions. Go Browns!!!
BIG talented beats Little talented most of the time.
It's all about matchups; who the defender is. If the CB covering is also a bigger strider kinda guy, then your little shifty guy is going to eat him up. Offenses generally know what a defense is doing in any given look, and once you've been around long enough, you know the general responsibilities of each guy in a given look.... so, you know that if you motion 'x', then you know that schematically, 'y' is going to follow with him. So, getting matchups is what matters. To most easily do that, you need both Big Talented and Little Talented.
It's about what gives you the best chance to win in any given situation on any given day.
To Landry and OBJ... together, they can do it all. OBJ can blow the doors off a secondary, and Landry can out-shifty a lot of guys. Both run impeccable routes and are hard to read at the LoS (think Joe Thomas and how he always lined up giving the same look, whether it was run or pass he was dropping into). They are the complete package, which is why they cost more. Until and unless the other guys put it all together at the same level, you should stick with the guys that get the job done.
I see both Landry and OBJ gone as well. OBJ possibly before the season starts in a trade.
I can see that as a possible scenario. However, OBJ is as healthy as he has been in quite a while. His trade value is as low as it's ever been. We aren't in a cap hell situation this season so the FO may see this season as a possible way to increase his trade value and trade him during the off season next year. He's under contract through the 2023 season so that would not be an obstacle in trading him during the off season next year.
I certainly think the leadership that Landry provides in what would be an otherwise younger, less proven WR core to be a reason he would be here longer than OBJ.
After more thought and some review, OBJ has 2 more years on his deal and we are through the most expensive years.
He probably won't go anywhere this year. If Peoples jones continues to emerge, he probably digs in to Landrys play time and Landry is traded or cut next year.
We aren't in cap hell, but one of the consistent themes of this FO is staying ahead of this kinda stuff. I'm not saying they're looking to trade him this season, but they're going to be getting big money off the books before it's an issue.
I agree wholeheartedly with your matchup statements. And I mentioned both of our high priced WRs as pros- Landry especially. However, both are small, both have NOT been AVAILABLE at their peaks. We have the scat, fast, flashy guys with Felton and especially Schwartz. They'll get a year of seasoning and should/could take over for both the big dollar guys. JMHO, when close to goal line I prefer big guys- DPJ and two or more of our TEs- NO NFL team has several good big CBs/Safeties AND they have to defend the RUN with either Chubb or Hunt.
We need to pay Mayfield/ Ward/ maybe Teller- his replacement is on the team. Money is limited....so, play our two $$ WRs this year and be ready to unload next year.....GO Browns
I’d rather keep Landry than obj. I’m not going to criticize Beckham, but they’re about the same age and I think Landry, for one thing, is a great player - not far off from OBJ, really - but he’s also a leader. Jarvis makes plays, is a ferocious blocker, a vicious competitor. I want him back with us for several more years.
I’d rather keep Landry than obj. I’m not going to criticize Beckham, but they’re about the same age and I think Landry, for one thing, is a great player - not far off from OBJ, really - but he’s also a leader. Jarvis makes plays, is a ferocious blocker, a vicious competitor. I want him back with us for several more years.
I have seen this style of post quite a few times. I love Landry from a skill set stand point he is very average.
I agree he brings a great attitude to the team a great team player with even better hands. OBJ is your rare guy. It's hard to find guys who can motor like he does with great hands, but as someone pointed out he has been unavailable quite a bit. Someone also said that they have been unavailable to much Landry missed his 1st start in the Jets game last season when he was put on the Covid close contact list, beyond that he has played every single game since joining the team. OBJ is another story. Just thought it was sort of important that we clear that up some.
There is also a chance that these guys re-work their deals so they can stay with the team for the long haul, and there is also a chance that Bake takes less to keep these guys on the roster. One of the re-occurring themes from this off season is players taking less to join us. Not every guy including the QB can be the highest paid player in the league. Assuming these guys want to be a part of championship football they may set aside their personnel ego's and take a bit less to remain here like Chubb did. I don't think anyone is going to starve if they take less that is for sure.
My point is the books aren't closed on anyone yet, and there is a better then even chance IMO that these guys take less to stay. I sure hope that is true but if it isn't I will accept it because I have no other choice. Seeing a player like Landry or OBJ let go or traded away is going to be tough for all of us especially if this team is as great as they are going to be. Both of these guys have worked very hard at their craft I don't think we could have ever asked for more on that front.
I would say let's enjoy this season and we can all worry about next year when it comes.
I'm one of the Landry > OBJ guys, but that's NOT because I dislike OBJ. More than anything, it's based on the assumption that we're going to be able to keep the both of them along with all of the talent that seems to be developing right now, and also the assumption that these WON'T take pay cuts to stay here past their current contracts.
As you said, OBJ is a rare talent, and he deserves appropriate compensation (and he'll get it, especially after he gets a healthy season in the books again). These guys absolutely should make all the money they can while they're playing.
I’d rather keep Landry than obj. I’m not going to criticize Beckham, but they’re about the same age and I think Landry, for one thing, is a great player - not far off from OBJ, really - but he’s also a leader. Jarvis makes plays, is a ferocious blocker, a vicious competitor. I want him back with us for several more years.
Fast forward to 2022...They are essentially getting paid the same amount in 2022. OBJ's cap hit is $15M; Landry's is $16.5M. Cutting OBJ costs us nothing. Cutting Landry costs us $1.5M. (Landry @ $16.5M = )
If both players were healthy, I take OBJ over Landry everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. No hesitation whatsoever as he is the far superior player. And if I was forced to choose one over the other and have to take the cap hit on one of them, it's easily OBJ.
The problem is OBJ and his injury history and the fact the offense was strumming along fine without him.
This team's offensive cap in 2021 is $142M. I think these two WR's take up $30M of that-- which is ridiculous compared to value received from them and it goes up in 2022. I think the odds of both staying are rather low. I think the odds of cutting one and keeping the other at the same salary is low as well, but not as low as the prior scenario.
For me, it think its the hope the OBJ comes back 100% and has a great season. Move on from Landry and the $16.5M cap hit, possibly restructure OBJ in some fashion and work with a WR corp of OBJ, Higgins, DPJ, and pick other young WRs in the draft. Hodge even is a possibility w/ his special teams availability.
I think the analytics and the financial side of things completely agree with your path forward there. I would just worry about what would happen to the WR room if Landry (or both) were to suddenly leave. I just don't see his replacement on the roster right now (security blanket WR, super tough, vocal leader). Higgins might be the closest thing, but I think his on-going contract situation hampers his ability to take leadership of that room. Maybe I'm grasping at straws... but I don't like the idea of just starting to build a culture and then ushering a guy like Landry out the door.
It's still too early, but DPJ seems to be developing into that big-play WR that could slot him into OBJ's role (plus they both have the whole initials-as-their-nickname-thing going :-p ).
Maybe I'm grasping at straws... but I don't like the idea of just starting to build a culture and then ushering a guy like Landry out the door.
I don't think you are grasping at straws, necessarily. And I do think Landry is good WR-- just wildly overrated around here. I don't put all that much into the "locker room" guy when it comes to attributing his value, certainly as it relates to him getting paid. It comes down to almost all on the field for me.
And I think the culture is already here. It's been built. Thanks to a FO direction, a coaching staff plan and communicating expectations. That won't go away with Landry exiting stage left. But that's just me.
Don't forget that the new TV contract money kicks in for 2022. Those contract dollars for OBJ & Landry not only will be small once that happens, BUT there's a chance that we could work out extensions for both and keep them another two to three years, depending on how things are going.
I think how the WR's produce that are lower on the depth chart will be a critical ingredient in the moves we make going forward. It would be hard to give up your #1 and or #2 WR's if people like Schwartz and DPJ do not develop into the WR's we all hope they will.
How they develop and produce will go a very long way in how we handle the situations with Landry and OBJ moving forward IMO.
I'm to old to bend good , lol .. Modern football requires a very large slide rule. Might come down to neither is retainable. I just have Questions with very few answers.. Looking forward to the Season !
Well, to be specific, I bend well enough. It's the unbending part that takes some time and effort.
Last week we drove to Florida to visit her 95 year old mother. For one reason or another( road construction south of Atlanta killed 1 hour +) it was 4 hours on the first leg before we got out of the car. I was petrified to the seat when we finally stopped.
I am a slow learner. I should know by now I really need to get out of the car every 2 hours or so to walk around for at least 10 minutes or so.
Gone are the days of driving from fill-up to fill-up and eating a burger while driving down the road. Trips down to Florida or up to Cleveland for games are no longer straight through drives. About 400 miles or so is about as far as I go before it's time to shut it down.
Well, to be specific, I bend well enough. It's the unbending part that takes some time and effort.
Last week we drove to Florida to visit her 95 year old mother. For one reason or another( road construction south of Atlanta killed 1 hour +) it was 4 hours on the first leg before we got out of the car. I was petrified to the seat when we finally stopped.
I am a slow learner. I should know by now I really need to get out of the car every 2 hours or so to walk around for at least 10 minutes or so.
Gone are the days of driving from fill-up to fill-up and eating a burger while driving down the road. Trips down to Florida or up to Cleveland for games are no longer straight through drives. About 400 miles or so is about as far as I go before it's time to shut it down.
Several years ago, I had to go to Cleveland. I hired a service to drive me up. They had a nice minivan, which was comfortable enough, but after about 1/2 hour, I had to have them pull over so my back could decompress.
I remember one year I went on vacation, and drove down to Nashville ..... non-stop, except for a fill up. (and grabbing a burger) Those days are probably gone forever.
Last week we drove to Florida to visit her 95 year old mother. For one reason or another( road construction south of Atlanta killed 1 hour +) it was 4 hours on the first leg before we got out of the car. I was petrified to the seat when we finally stopped.
I am a slow learner. I should know by now I really need to get out of the car every 2 hours or so to walk around for at least 10 minutes or so.
I just did a crap ton of driving (over 3500 miles) from Ohio to Colorado and back, including some sight seeing. The 60yo prostate kept me honest, but I was able to pull 3-4 hr stints until the back and knees required relief. I also did some good stretching when pulled over.
Wasn't all that long ago that, when we'd drive for vacation I made the statement: "Go to the bathroom now, cause our next stop will be when the vehicle needs gas. We'll get food then, also."
Just this weekend, wife and I headed to "Guardian" lake, s.e. of Lima, Oh. (cleveland baseball fans will get it) Hour and 40 minutes or so of a a drive.
I made it, no stops. But once there? Now, granted, too much coffee in the morning....
Last week we drove to Florida to visit her 95 year old mother. For one reason or another( road construction south of Atlanta killed 1 hour +) it was 4 hours on the first leg before we got out of the car. I was petrified to the seat when we finally stopped.
I am a slow learner. I should know by now I really need to get out of the car every 2 hours or so to walk around for at least 10 minutes or so.
I just did a crap ton of driving (over 3500 miles) from Ohio to Colorado and back, including some sight seeing. The 60yo prostate kept me honest, but I was able to pull 3-4 hr stints until the back and knees required relief. I also did some good stretching when pulled over.
Hope you had a blast on your trip out west... not quite the same as when we were young pups, eh? I'm doing this 4 hour stint every other week from Fort Wayne and back. On days we don't need to stop and pee (not very often lol) it's hard top get out of the car at the end of the trip!
As is the case with many sports this century, data has changed football.
Analytics are playing an increasingly large role in the NFL, affecting strategy, personnel decisions and ultimately the outcome of games. For many, analytics may seem a confounding idea that clashes with their traditional view of what football is. For others, perhaps it seems merely a buzzword thrown out by coaches and broadcasters to demonstrate that a team has a modern approach. But how exactly are analytics utilized in the NFL and how does utilizing data impact the game today?
Who better to ask than the data analyst of a recent Super Bowl champion? Ryan Paganetti was an analyst and game management coach with the Philadelphia Eagles for six seasons between 2015-2020. He was the primary voice in head coach Doug Pederson’s ear as far as analytics were concerned and Philadelphia was perhaps the most forward-thinking team in the NFL during his time there. Data-driven strategies and aggressive decisionmaking were part of the reason the Eagles won Super Bowl LII in the 2017 season.
Paganetti studied data for the Eagles to help better-inform the team’s game planning and in-game strategy. The Dartmouth graduate was focused on statistical analysis and coaching analytics, feeding any potential advantage he found in the data to the Eagles’ coaching staff.
“Using things like win probability and expected points added to understand the magnitude of plays,” Paganetti said.
Expected Points (EP) and Expected Points Added (EPA) are metrics widely-used today by NFL teams and members of the media. They measure the value of a play and can better-show how effective a player or team is overall and in certain situations. It is generally accepted that EP and EPA tell us more about production than conventional yardage statistics because not all yardage is created equal. For example, a three-yard gain on fourth-and-2 is not worth the same as a three-yard gain on fourth-and-7. EP provides a baseline for specific situations in games and EPA measures if a player or team performs better or worse in that situation than expected.
By utilizing those metrics and others, an NFL team can better-inform its decision making. Analytics also makes game planning more efficient, because the data can quickly show coaches how often an opposing offense or defense utilizes different plays and formations (i.e. team tendencies) and how successful various plays were against those formations. For example, the data may show that an opposing offense uses 11 personnel (one RB, one TE and three WRs) 50 percent of the time and favors running crossing routes and play action out of that formation. Knowing that information without having to watch several hours’ worth of tape is extremely valuable.
Paganetti was hired by the Eagles in 2015, which coincided with Chip Kelly’s last year there as head coach. He was retained when Doug Pederson was hired and built a great relationship with the aggressive and analytically-minded head coach. The Eagles’ use of data started with being more aggressive in specific situations – fourth downs and two-point conversions – which tracks with the league-wide adoption of analytic strategies.
According to a study done by Football Outsiders, an analytics community favorite, Pederson was the most aggressive head coach in NFL history during his time in Philadelphia. The Eagles ranked either first or second in the league in fourth-down attempts all five years under Pederson. The Eagles also led the league in two-point conversion attempts in both 2017 and 2020.
“I think that was a good example of Doug’s receptiveness. Ultimately, it was going to be his decision ... but he wanted to know the information and be able to digest the information and make the best decision for the football team,” Paganetti said.
Paganetti believes that partly because of the Eagles’ Super Bowl success, other teams around the league have adopted aggressive tendencies based on analytics. Fourth-down attempts and two-point conversion attempts league wide have skyrocketed to historic levels over the past few seasons. “The way the NFL works, when one team wins the Super Bowl, the other 31 teams spend the offseason trying to find ideas to copy from that team,” Paganetti said.
Another major area that data informs is in-game situations, which includes clock management (i.e. when to use timeouts versus when to let the clock run), when a play is valuable enough to use a challenge on and when to accept penalties. All of those in-game charts in Philadelphia were finalized before the season according to Paganetti, but could be altered slightly depending on the Eagles’ opponent.
His in-season work largely involved using analytics to help with game planning. Paganetti would analyze the data pertaining to an upcoming opponent to find any sort of statistical tendencies or notable trends that could be exploited. The result of that research could be anything that benefited the team’s approach for that specific game.
“It really was on a week-to-week basis with some of the game planning stuff. It really could be anything that comes up that could be pertinent to that particular week and that is something that I really enjoyed,” Paganetti said.
The timing of communicating that data-based information was crucial. Paganetti needed to have it ready for the coaches when their game planning began, which usually meant either early in the week or even in the week prior to the game to give coaches enough time to install corresponding strategies into their game plan. Paganetti says that he was involved in many of the Eagles’ coaching meetings as well, which gave him more credibility with the staff and players, and helped him understand how the information he was sharing could be utilized and implemented.
He would sit up in the booth during games and meet with Pederson at halftime to share potential strategy changes based on the data he was analyzing during that specific game. Paganetti’s insight was only as helpful as the most recent data he was analyzing.
The pivotal game during the 2017 Super Bowl season as far as analytics are concerned according to Paganetti came in Week 2 against the Chiefs. The Eagles were down two touchdowns and scored late in the game to cut the deficit to eight. Rather than kick the extra point, Paganetti told Pederson that the data dictates that it made more sense for the Eagles to attempt a two-point conversion to try and cut the deficit to six points, knowing no matter what that they needed to score another touchdown later on.
It is a concept that has gained in popularity in the years since and is increasingly employed by NFL teams when they are in that specific situation. At the time however, it was a foreign idea to many in the NFL and in Philadelphia. “I shared this information and I had several staff members, during the game, freaking out and borderline having a confrontation,” Paganetti said. Due to the confusion, Pederson went the traditional route and kicked the extra point.
That small moment ended up being a turning point in the season. Thanks to a post-game discussion between Paganetti and Pederson, and then Pederson and his staff, the Eagles further committed to what Paganetti’s analytics were telling them. Philadelphia won nine straight games after that loss to Kansas City and would raise the Lombardi Trophy five months later. It was a moment that Paganetti believes was critical to that season and critical to the NFL’s continuing acceptance of analytics.
“From that moment on, there was never another time that entire rest of the season where anyone questioned the information I was sharing with him,” Paganetti said.
Prior to that season, as he often did in the offseason, Paganetti conducted various league-wide studies. One of those studies involved the success rate of quarterback sneaks. He looked at what worked, what didn’t and the limits to running that play were. The data showed that it was a significant exploitable advantage in short-yardage situations that Paganetti believed was not utilized enough around the league. Even when the opposing defense was aligned perfectly, the offense in those situations usually picked up the first-down when calling a quarterback sneak.
Paganetti presented his findings to the Eagles, including the optimal offensive alignment, quarterback footwork and situations to maximize the potential of a quarterback sneak play-call. Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz went a perfect 13-for-13 on QB sneaks in 2017. It was a black and white example of a data-driven strategy that led to success in games.
“For the coaches, I think it increased the buy-in even more,” Paganetti said. “I think that was a wake up call for certain guys.”
The mainstream acceptance of football analytics seems to start with Brian Burke and his work on the website Advanced Football Analytics starting in the mid 2000s. Now with ESPN, Burke has proven to the NFL what analytics can accomplish and once inspired Paganetti’s own passion in the subject. “If Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T. of quarterbacks, then Brian Burke is the G.O.A.T. of football analytics,” Paganetti said.
Other websites like Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders have helped popularize the acceptance of football analytics as well and modernized how the game is analyzed.
How analytics are utilized is always changing as the concept becomes more accepted by coaches and general managers around the league. On the personnel side, GPS tracking of player movements and machine learning models are being used to project player success from college to the NFL. The understanding of football data is deepening as well and how analytics are implemented is becoming more nuanced of a conversation.
Its early adoptance was heavily tied to increasing aggressiveness, but that is becoming old news. Paganetti says that he is starting to see the analytics community criticize some teams’ overly-aggressive fourth down decisions, which was rarely the case before. Teams need to find other ways to add value through analytics because going for it more on fourth down and attempting more two-point conversions is no longer an edge; it is now a league-wide phenomenon.
“The thing I’m looking at, I think some of these win-probability models that teams might be using are almost overestimating aggressiveness. So, I think you might even see either this year or next year a little bit of a bounce back,” Paganetti said. “I think to some degree, I think we are getting closer and closer to a limit, particularly with fourth downs. We are approaching peak aggressiveness.”
Paganetti says that he expects to do some consulting work with NFL teams this season and will look to reenter the league as a full-time analyst in 2022. He still feels that he has more to accomplish in the league through the use of analytics. Perhaps Paganetti can try to recreate the Super Bowl magic he captured in Philadelphia alongside Pederson and a certain MVP quarterback.
“I certainly think there is a chance that I will link up with Coach Pederson in the future and maybe we get Nick Foles back and try to run it back,” Paganetti said.
I think how the WR's produce that are lower on the depth chart will be a critical ingredient in the moves we make going forward. It would be hard to give up your #1 and or #2 WR's if people like Schwartz and DPJ do not develop into the WR's we all hope they will.
How they develop and produce will go a very long way in how we handle the situations with Landry and OBJ moving forward IMO.
Absolutely but you can't miss this is what the plan that the FO has laid out. At some point DPJ and hopefully Schwartz are going to demand or beg for playing time.
I can't speak for others but I think that the QB makes the WR but in the instance of Baker just being drafted surrounding him with top shelf WR's was a great move. Those guys probably were a bit much for baker in his 1st year but in his second they were invaluable I would guess. But Baker is no longer a rookie at this point he is a seasoned Vet to a degree.
I really believe that his 1st 2 seasons were wasted with poor coaching and scheme. That is no longer an issue either, and Baker really seems to have a solid handle on this offense, in fact I think he advertises his comfort. He needs to foster the kind of relationship with DPJ and Schwartz he seems to have with Landry and OBJ. He needs to assume a leadership roll with those guys and I think he will.
I have no real concerns with the Browns offense looking to the future we look to be in good shape on that front well enough into the future when you look at it out a year or 2. Chubb is under contract the O line is a bit concerning with some of the guys getting a bit long in the tooth in the next few years but with Callahan on board here I think we are OK there too. We keep drafting young guys along the line and developing them. All good IMO.
The defense is still of concern in the long term next season we will be back looking for a DE and I believe tackles as well. We have issues as we speak with injuries and depth at the LB position. I think JOK will be a monster for us. He is the most explosive defensive player I have ever seen and if he can stay healthy he will be the most disruptive player maybe to ever set foot on a football field.
I am not a guy that spends a lot of time watching college football so I hardly know what the talent coming out looks like nor can I watch a college player and forecast how their skill set translates to the NFL. I read a lot when it comes to the draft and I go and watch tape on players that draw media attention or the attention of members of the board especially Bonefish who seems to really watch a lot of young college players. I also happen to see nearly everything he does just like he does. Maybe it's were both a couple of old bastards. But he has been screaming about JOK and after watching him play and reading about how disruptive he is in camp I think he is going to be one of the rarest players to ever set foot on an NFL field. He is full speed after about half a step unbelievably explosive. When you sit down and imagine for just a moment what you can do with him, he truly blows your mind. I know it's pre-season and just camp but he jumps out at me like no player I have EVER EVER seen.
Imagine lining this guy up just off the back shoulder of Myles then looping him around up the gut or having him jump in behind Myles from a middle LB position at the snap? He is so explosive he will make Myles better and create all sorts of nightmares for O Lines and QB's. Man I drool thinking about this kid. He has natural skills, we have never seen in one package. How he wasn't the Browns 1st pick in the draft blows my mind. I know the Browns wanted him but he isn't a player that fits anything really so they sorta skipped over him to address our backend. When he was still available in round 2 Woods must have been driving them crazy to get this kid. I can see why.
I don't know what to call him either he is sorta like the rover in slow pitch softball just move him to where he can do you the most good. He is a nightmare for apposing offenses, and I believe that will all start game one and Mahomes.
We do need some veteran backups in case we have an injury to what is left of our LB core. And we need a hammer in the middle anyway IMO. I thought Phillips would fill that roll but he is lost for most if not all of the season. That puts us in a bad spot. I just don't see Mack or Taki as viable LBers. It appears they have made some progress in the offseason but I just do NOT like LBers who miss tackles, especially when it's crunch time.
Man I started out to sorta just agree with what you said and wrote a book but everything sorta goes together I guess ?