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Posted By: Milk Man Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 08:39 PM
As a believer in Njoku, I like this.

Posted By: MemphisBrownie Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 08:47 PM
Originally Posted by Milk Man
As a believer in Njoku, I like this.


I'm a Njoku believer too but that's quite the contract. The FO and Stefanski must REALLY like his upside......and I do too.

So it says he is averaging $14MM+ a year and gets $28MM guaranteed so it looks like on the surface it might just be a two year deal if this thing flops the team can bow out?? Clearly they felt more comfortable with Njoku at this amount that Hooper at his.

Curious to see the contract breakdown.
Posted By: steve0255 Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 08:51 PM
148 catches in 5-years nets Njoku 56.75 million for 4-years. To think people complained about Hoopers deal and now the Browns are paying 14.75M more for the lessor productive of the two. I sure hope he gets a hell of a lot better, averaging 14.1875M per year for less than 30 catches is questionable in any FO's book except Cleveland.
Posted By: MemphisBrownie Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 08:56 PM
Originally Posted by MemphisBrownie
Originally Posted by Milk Man
As a believer in Njoku, I like this.


I'm a Njoku believer too but that's quite the contract. The FO and Stefanski must REALLY like his upside......and I do too.

So it says he is averaging $14MM+ a year and gets $28MM guaranteed so it looks like on the surface it might just be a two year deal if this thing flops the team can bow out?? Clearly they felt more comfortable with Njoku at this amount that Hooper at his.

Curious to see the contract breakdown.

Posted By: SuperBrown Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 09:03 PM
That is a lot of money for a S L O W footed TE who can barely catch passes.
Posted By: Pdawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 09:06 PM
Originally Posted by SuperBrown
That is a lot of money for a S L O W footed TE who can barely catch passes.

Njoku is not considered slow footed by any standard for TEs
Posted By: LexDawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 09:10 PM
Torn in the amount but glad they kept him, hope he breaks out this year.
Posted By: FrankZ Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 09:10 PM
Originally Posted by Pdawg
Originally Posted by SuperBrown
That is a lot of money for a S L O W footed TE who can barely catch passes.

Njoku is not considered slow footed by any standard for TEs

I notice you didn't address the second part of that! rofl
Posted By: Milk Man Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 09:12 PM
Njoku will be given the opportunity be the #1 and shine in this offense. Looking forward to seeing him in that role with Watson throwing him the ball. He's improved all around every year.

I think Stefanski will have Njoku flexed out more this year.
Posted By: jfanent Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 09:16 PM
It ain't my money......but that's a lot of cash.
Posted By: FATE Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 09:18 PM
Originally Posted by FrankZ
Originally Posted by Pdawg
Originally Posted by SuperBrown
That is a lot of money for a S L O W footed TE who can barely catch passes.

Njoku is not considered slow footed by any standard for TEs

I notice you didn't address the second part of that! rofl

I will. Njoku's hands have improved every year to the point that I would call him "sure-handed" and not blink.
Posted By: MemphisBrownie Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 09:30 PM
Catchable rate of 68%in 2021.

True catchable rate of 84% in 2021- this comes from one of many sites that try to get catch rates based on the real opportunities to catch a ball as the general catch rate is simply targets and receptions.
Posted By: bonefish Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 09:36 PM
Njoku 40 time is 4.64. Travis Kelce 4.61.

He is 25 with a lot of experience. He is in his prime and is now a complete TE.

He will be playing with a qb who likes to use a TE.

Berry pays fair market value. He knows what Njoku would have gotten.

Posted By: FrankZ Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 09:45 PM
Originally Posted by FATE
Originally Posted by FrankZ
Originally Posted by Pdawg
Originally Posted by SuperBrown
That is a lot of money for a S L O W footed TE who can barely catch passes.

Njoku is not considered slow footed by any standard for TEs

I notice you didn't address the second part of that! rofl

I will. Njoku's hands have improved every year to the point that I would call him "sure-handed" and not blink.

I'm ever the optimist with him, so I sure hope he fills into the contract and makes it look like a steal.
Posted By: Homewood Dog Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 09:48 PM
I think DW will make our offense and receivers much better including Njoku. I think Andrew Berry sees this and that is why Njoku got the contract he did.
Posted By: 10YrOvernightSuccess Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 09:56 PM
Another big bet that hinges on Watson actually playing. If Watson gets tossed for the year or longer, it’s a bad bet, if Watson gets the 6-8 games Browns fans are hoping for, it’s potentially a good bet.
Posted By: SuperBrown Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 10:59 PM
Originally Posted by Pdawg
Originally Posted by SuperBrown
That is a lot of money for a S L O W footed TE who can barely catch passes.

Njoku is not considered slow footed by any standard for TEs


Did you not see his touchdown catch in the Chargers game last year? My grandmother could have outrun him!

Posted By: mgh888 Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/27/22 11:41 PM
I think you used the key word here which is a problem for a veteran of the NFL like Njoku.... we are still talkin about "Potential". Njoku undoubtedly has the potential. He's been way shot of of earning the contract he just signed. I would think there's as much chance of him living up to that contract as he does of falling short. I think he's improved the last 2 seasons ... hoping he can take that final step and be the player he has flashed - but instead of disappearing for multiple game stretches, I hope he's "Thant Guy" every game.
Posted By: archbolddawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 12:22 AM
Originally Posted by mgh888
I think you used the key word here which is a problem for a veteran of the NFL like Njoku.... we are still talkin about "Potential".

As my h.s. coach told us: If people say you have potential it simply means you haven't done it yet.
Posted By: mgh888 Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 12:28 AM
I'd say that describes njoku to a tee
Posted By: Milk Man Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 12:34 AM
Originally Posted by SuperBrown
Did you not see his touchdown catch in the Chargers game last year? My grandmother could have outrun him!

Sounds like grandma needs to enter the National Senior Games with that speed! Surefire winner.

https://nsga.com/howtoqualify/
Posted By: OldColdDawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 12:51 AM
He really just started coming into his own the last two years but really has yet to dominate, so that's a very NJOKU friendly contract if you ask me. They must expect a huge increase in the cap the next few years. Spending like they got it.
Posted By: DeisleDawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 12:52 AM
Originally Posted by archbolddawg
Originally Posted by mgh888
I think you used the key word here which is a problem for a veteran of the NFL like Njoku.... we are still talkin about "Potential".

As my h.s. coach told us: If people say you have potential it simply means you haven't done it yet.


I agree, so many have been told you have the potential, yet aren't playing . Because the coach was wrong.
Posted By: Swish Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 01:20 AM
chiiiiiiefffffff!!
Posted By: SuperBrown Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 01:32 AM
[Linked Image from thumbs.dreamstime.com]

"I'm faster that that Najookoo fella!"
Posted By: Rottweiller Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 01:48 AM
J/C I think this is a good Re-sign. We, as fans have hated in the past when we have allowed players to leave and they have thrived elsewhere ie(M Schwartz, J Poyer etc). Njoku seems as if he has been here quite a while but he is still only 25!!! I believe he was the youngest player in that draft. I think some fans see the money and think WOW thats a lot for him, However QB play, Multiple coordinators and all the other Browns crap did affect him too. He absolutely struggled with blocking and some focus drops early in his career but in the last 2 he has been outstanding to the point where we just sent Austin Hooper packing (how about that waste of $). David has grown up and I think his best football is in front of him. To re-sign a guy we drafted is another Team builder, "if you perform we pay" is huge among the players. 2 years from now his contract will look average, a lot of good young TE's out there and more coming in this years draft
Posted By: PrplPplEater Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 01:53 AM
I wonder if this lowers his cap hit for this year
Posted By: jfanent Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 02:11 AM
Njoku averaged 2.8 targets a game over the past 2 yrs. I hope he gets more than that this season.
Posted By: Milk Man Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 02:59 AM
j/c...

Posted By: DaveyD Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 03:59 AM
Dude better put up some impressive numbers and make a few Pro Bowls with that kind of scratch.
Posted By: cfrs15 Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 04:05 AM
Two years $28 million for Njoku isn’t horrible. I’d rather have let him play on the franchise tag but the team must believe in him.
Posted By: lampdogg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 05:20 AM
Originally Posted by DaveyD
Dude better put up some impressive numbers and make a few Pro Bowls with that kind of scratch.

One PB would be terrific. I’m thinking he has to catch 50 balls, minimum, a few TDs that help us win, and block hard to earn his money.
Posted By: Ballpeen Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 09:10 AM
Njoku is one of the most overrated players in Browns history. That is a big commitment to a guy who hasn't done anything to earn that contract.

Hooper may not have played well here, but at least he had a history of production. Harrison Bryant is better than Joke. I hope we don't forget about him while we try to force feed the ball to Joke in an effort to justify the signing.

I hope it works out. Berry lost a little bit of shine in my eyes, but nothing that can't be polished again if Joke plays well.
Posted By: bonefish Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 11:57 AM
Market value is changing. Prices will go up.

Njoku is only 25. He came into the league very young. It took him till now to add man strength and be a reliable blocker.

He has never gotten a lot of targets. He will be playing with a much different quarterback. Hooper is gone and Njoku and Bryant will get more targets.

The cap will increase. Next year and in the following years Njoku's deal will look very good.

If he was let go as a FA. Who were we going to get that is his age with his experience?

He will earn his money.
Posted By: Brown to the Bone Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 12:21 PM
DN is a special player with mad skills that haven't been used well to date, the Browns brass who watch film know this and paid accordingly. Fans aren't likely to see these things the Brass and staff has.

I thought last year he would really light it up and he did when the ball came his way. I look for him to be huge going forward.
Posted By: Ballpeen Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 12:51 PM
Originally Posted by bonefish
Market value is changing. Prices will go up.

Njoku is only 25. He came into the league very young. It took him till now to add man strength and be a reliable blocker.

He has never gotten a lot of targets. He will be playing with a much different quarterback. Hooper is gone and Njoku and Bryant will get more targets.

The cap will increase. Next year and in the following years Njoku's deal will look very good.

If he was let go as a FA. Who were we going to get that is his age with his experience?

He will earn his money.

I understand the prices are going up. If it turns out that Joke is in a middling contract for a TE, cool. At least that is closer to what he has done thus far.

Like I said, I hope I am wrong. I really do.
Posted By: Bull_Dawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 01:00 PM
Originally Posted by Ballpeen
Njoku is one of the most overrated players in Browns history. That is a big commitment to a guy who hasn't done anything to earn that contract.

Hooper may not have played well here, but at least he had a history of production. Harrison Bryant is better than Joke. I hope we don't forget about him while we try to force feed the ball to Joke in an effort to justify the signing.

I hope it works out. Berry lost a little bit of shine in my eyes, but nothing that can't be polished again if Joke plays well.

Hooper had a history of high targets on a team that had opponents focused on Julio Jones.

Last season, Hooper had 61 targets for 345 yards and 3 TDs.
Last season, Njoku had 53 targets for 475 yards and 4 TDs.

Njoku isn't the most overrated player in Browns history. He has been poorly utilized or at least utilized in a limited fashion. In the one year we did target Njoku consistently, he had similar production to Hooper, who made his 1st pro bowl that season. Hooper did it with Matt Ryan. Njoku did it with Tyrod Taylor and rookie Baker. Teams weren't particularly worried about getting beat deep by Jarvis Landry, Callaway, Perriman, and Higgins.

What happens in games is really only a small fraction of what guys do to earn their contracts. Njoku has put in the work (which is what this FO/Coaching staff preach) and outperformed a two-time pro bowl TE despite fewer opportunities. His time is now. Here's to him proving Berry right. You want to pay for future production rather than past when putting together contracts. We'll see how good Berry's powers of prediction are.
Posted By: Bull_Dawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 02:44 PM
Posted By: Ballpeen Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 02:54 PM
At least he isn't talking about wanting a trade.

We will find out if he is just a guy or is a legit TE. I hope you and many others are right.
Posted By: THROW LONG Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 04:33 PM
Kevin Stefanski will have no excuses this year

Every time Stefanski works a play that has thrown to Harrison Bryant over the last 2 years, it ends up a play where the Browns did not get the ball into one of their superstars hands.

Marty Schottenheimer had no trouble, (on offense), getting the ball into his superstars' hands.
Jerry Glanville did not either. Surely dozens of other coaches could get the ball into their superstars hands on offense, And I'm not talking about a one yard pass, or a zero yard pass, or an end around hand off.

Every Time Harrison Bryant has been targeted over the past 2 years, The Browns had ONE Play, where they did not aim the ball into one of their superstars hands. Every time Harrison Bryant was targeted was a time that they did not target one of their others, like Hooper, or OBJ, or Jarvis, or Chubb, or Kareem Hunt, or Higgins, or even Njoku.

Now, if one of these posts above^ said that Njoku averaged 2.5 targets per game over the last 2 years. THEN WHOSE FAULT IS THAT? I'm looking at Stefanski?
Nobody yet has said who the buck stops with on this offense, when I've asked. Who is responsible for this Browns offense, what coach? or Who?

If These Browns, Can't get the ball to anybody but Harrison Bryant, and some back up Fullback, in crunch times' on critical downs in games,
Then somebody is going to have to take responsibility, eventually
It's not like they have a bunch of Stephen Carlsons' on the other side, you have Stars on your team, USE THEM.

When these wheels fall off in 2022 and don't turn we all know right back where we'll be, with a (can't leave their hands off of it) ownership, we'll be right back at s'uare one in I2 months with a New Coach and a new line of make believe.
Posted By: highoman Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 04:39 PM
Originally Posted by Ballpeen
Njoku is one of the most overrated players in Browns history. That is a big commitment to a guy who hasn't done anything to earn that contract.

Hooper may not have played well here, but at least he had a history of production. Harrison Bryant is better than Joke. I hope we don't forget about him while we try to force feed the ball to Joke in an effort to justify the signing.

I hope it works out. Berry lost a little bit of shine in my eyes, but nothing that can't be polished again if Joke plays well.

Don’t really understand the love for Bryant. I had hope for him, but once he got fumbleitis it was over. Those fumbles he had were horrible and he knew it. Once he caught anything after that he would turn up field with 2 hand wrapped around ball and just ran straight. He looked like a o lineman picking up a fumble, wrapping up ball and stumbling forward. He lost all athleticism worrying about fumbeling.
Posted By: bonefish Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 05:12 PM
In another thread I predicted that Njoku and Delpit would have great years.

Njoku is a mismatch against linebackers. If he was used like Kelce. He would have those numbers.

He should dominate the mid field in all routes especially seam routes. His length and jumping ability has been under used.

He should have serious redzone numbers. In the back of the endzone and on crossing routes.

It is all about ball placement. The quarterback on a shallow cross throws it low and away. TE screens with body. Not defensible.

Along the back of the endzone throw the jump ball. The chief is 6'4" and can jump. No db is getting that ball if thrown correctly.
Posted By: THROW LONG Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 05:17 PM
Originally Posted by Ballpeen
Harrison Bryant is better than Joke. I hope we don't forget about him while we try to force feed the ball to Joke in an effort to justify the signing.

I hope it works out.
If one of our conceptions or misconceptions about these 2 is right or wrong.?. The team franchise tagged one of them not the other, and that's Njoku, and they also just gave him this contract.
Posted By: mgh888 Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 05:48 PM
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BryaHa00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/N/NjokDa00.htm

I hope they both mature and bloom into elite players. But a comparison between Bryant and Njoku - catch competition/yards per target .... really not a great deal in it.
Posted By: FATE Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 07:04 PM
Originally Posted by bonefish
In another thread I predicted that Njoku and Delpit would have great years.

Njoku is a mismatch against linebackers. If he was used like Kelce. He would have those numbers.

He should dominate the mid field in all routes especially seam routes. His length and jumping ability has been under used.

He should have serious redzone numbers. In the back of the endzone and on crossing routes.

It is all about ball placement. The quarterback on a shallow cross throws it low and away. TE screens with body. Not defensible.

Along the back of the endzone throw the jump ball. The chief is 6'4" and can jump. No db is getting that ball if thrown correctly.

I tend to agree, with an asterisk.

It definitely goes deeper than "used like Kelce". Kelce is on a different level when it comes to setting up his defender, finding the soft spot, and being in tune with his QB when there is any interruption to the scripted play.
Posted By: bonefish Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 08:16 PM
I don't want to take a thing from Kelce. He is a great player.

However, Reid is a HOF head coach with a great offensive mind. Their offense schemes guys open. They use a bunch of disceptive motion and great routes.

We shall see how Njoku does with us now.
Posted By: THROW LONG Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 08:21 PM
iirc. Kelces' huge production was evident in his college years, before he had Reid as a coach.
Posted By: PrplPplEater Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 08:57 PM
Originally Posted by Brown to the Bone
the Browns brass who watch film know this and paid accordingly

The same brass that watched the film and then refused to get him the ball more.
There's a pretty big disconnect in there, somewhere.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 09:33 PM
j/c:

I don't have a real strong opinion on this. I do think he hasn't earned such a payday, but I do recognize that he is a gifted athlete. Hopefully, it works out for the team.
Posted By: myka Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/28/22 11:21 PM
Originally Posted by PrplPplEater
Originally Posted by Brown to the Bone
the Browns brass who watch film know this and paid accordingly

The same brass that watched the film and then refused to get him the ball more.
There's a pretty big disconnect in there, somewhere.


They probably saw him getting open and Baker not delivering the ball. Hence replace Baker, extend Njoku. I mean if not, they're insane people.
Posted By: leadtheway Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/29/22 04:30 AM
seems like alot of dough for a marginal TE.. Lets hope theres something on tape we aren't seeing. He has all the tools. Maybe it was Baker holding him back. Guess we will find out.. I think alot of these contracts we are handing out will look like bargains after the new tv deal. Berry might end up looking like a genius in 2 years.
Posted By: Ballpeen Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/29/22 10:02 AM
J?C


No doubt Joke has the tools. We have been talking about that for 4-5 years now.

I have a toolbox full of tools, but nobody is going to call me a handyman or carpenter. lol
Posted By: mac Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/29/22 11:34 AM
jc...

I view Njoku's signing as a positive move by the FO.

The contract might be considered by some as a bit much but it's not ridiculous.

Njoku is about to turn 26 in July and his career is on the upswing...he was the most productive TE for the Browns last season and his production should improve, depending on how the Browns use him.

Posted By: Bard Dawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/29/22 12:31 PM
His trajectory is up; with DW throwing, I really believe that he will make players around him better, especially Njoku if he can be used more effectively. Hooper diluted how good this player might be, and disappointed me. I have some disconnect between the certainty on paper of what I estimate Njoku should be capable of managing and what actual production I have seen him manage. We will be more dangerous if we become a four-headed monster: What we can do running, throwing deed successfully, DW running some, and grinding TE play hitting seams and outs. I have high hopes that Ski can manufacture a breakout year for DN. What it would take to shut him down as a proven threat would certainly open up other opportunities. That will depend on the game as it is called. We talk about him being a monster nightmare for matchups; have to see that happening more.

Go, Browns!
Posted By: jaybird Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/29/22 05:00 PM
Solid signing... glad we're keeping him and hope he gets utilized more this year
Posted By: Ballpeen Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/29/22 07:47 PM
Originally Posted by jaybird
Solid signing... glad we're keeping him and hope he gets utilized more this year

I wonder why he wasn't "utilized" last year? I guess it was the QB problem.
Posted By: PitDAWG Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/30/22 04:15 PM
Gotta blame his entire pro career to this point on somebody I guess.
Posted By: jfanent Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/30/22 04:29 PM
Originally Posted by PitDAWG
Gotta blame his entire pro career to this point on somebody I guess.

It's the most logical of the conculusions given how our FO values him.
Posted By: PitDAWG Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/30/22 04:34 PM
It does seem to be the most popular opinion to try and justify why this FO paid a player so much in comparison with his production.
Posted By: mac Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/30/22 04:59 PM
JC...

Something that should not be overlooked concerning Njoku, we could see Stefanski utilize Njoku in an expanded roll, at times lining him up at TE shifting him wide as an additional wideout creating mismatches.
Posted By: PrplPplEater Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/30/22 05:10 PM
Originally Posted by PitDAWG
It does seem to be the most popular opinion to try and justify why this FO paid a player so much in comparison with his production.

The nature of the contract strikes me as a massive "show me" deal while still acknowledging and paying for his massive potential. We're paying him like he's Top 5, but we have an out if he doesn't live up to it.
Posted By: PitDAWG Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/30/22 05:36 PM
I tend to agree with you. The team can opt out easily after two years. I was referring to those who felt the need to makes excuses for the contract. I should have been more clear about that.
Posted By: 3rd_and_20 Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 12:58 PM
Originally Posted by PrplPplEater
Originally Posted by PitDAWG
It does seem to be the most popular opinion to try and justify why this FO paid a player so much in comparison with his production.

The nature of the contract strikes me as a massive "show me" deal while still acknowledging and paying for his massive potential. We're paying him like he's Top 5, but we have an out if he doesn't live up to it.

That sounds better. By the way he carries himself I think Njoku's ego is bigger than his actual playing ability. I've always thought he was a decent TE, but that's about it... average or slightly above. We'll find out soon enough just how much potential he actually has, barring any injuries.
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 01:10 PM
j/c

I’m late here, but I think this was necessary for us. I’d bank on his continued ascension with a good QB. Plus, he became a great blocker too
Posted By: eotab Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 01:14 PM
This is a great opportunity for Njoku to show his Potential Talent. He is still young but he is no longer raw. He could become a red zone nightmare for our opponents...."Could" we will see. He will have the opportunity. How will he do under Brisset???
Posted By: FL_Dawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 01:25 PM
Originally Posted by eotab
This is a great opportunity for Njoku to show his Potential Talent. He is still young but he is no longer raw. He could become a red zone nightmare for our opponents...."Could" we will see. He will have the opportunity. How will he do under Brisset???

Good grief!

Under Watson he should reach his potential.
Posted By: MemphisBrownie Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 03:23 PM
j/c:

Just commentary from someone who is pretty good on prop bets.
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 03:43 PM
j/c:


Quote
Making sense of David Njoku's new contract with the Cleveland Browns



By Eric Eager
May 31, 2022
Cleveland Browns

On Friday, May 27, the Cleveland Browns gave franchise-tagged tight end David Njoku a four-year, $56.75 million deal that includes $28 million in guarantees.

Given the former first-round pick’s lack of career production to this point — having turned 239 career targets into just 1,820 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns, including the playoffs — the eyebrows of some very respected people were raised:


That $28 million in guarantees is the fifth-most among tight ends, even though Njoku’s PFF WAR of 0.77 wins ranked 21st among tight ends from 2017 to 2021. And that performance is worth roughly $8 million per year in 2022 cap dollars.

Travis Kelce (2.88), George Kittle (1.82), Zach Ertz (1.70), Rob Gronkowski (1.60) and Mark Andrews (1.45) are the top five in PFF WAR.

The Browns were already on the hook for Njoku’s modest franchise tag number of $10.9 million but ate into their league-leading $23 million in effective cap by re-signing star edge player Jadeveon Clowney this week, meaning that the flexibility of extending Njoku presented some value to them.



In this article, I want to discuss the Browns’ possible thought process in giving Njoku such a rich deal:

TIGHT ENDS TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP THAN OTHER PLAYERS
I alluded to this idea in a tweet recently, but the tight end position is littered with players who took longer to perform up to expectations.

My colleague Timo Riske did excellent work on age curves, which showed that tight ends accumulate the lowest percentage of their career WAR (40%) before the age of 25 (Njoku is currently 25 years old) and the highest percentage of their career WAR after the age of 30 (19%).

Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap did an informative study on the premium-ness of positions by essentially going through the 20 highest-paid players at the position and determining what percentage of those players were available via free agency. Tight end was one of the least premium positions, in large part because even top players readily changed teams after their rookie deal.

Anecdotally, while the San Francisco 49ers were able to capitalize on the late bloom of Vernon Davis’ career, the list of players at the position who were drafted by one team but made their biggest contribution to another team is quite vast: Visanthe Shiancoe, Benjamin Watson, Delanie Walker, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett, Charles Clay, Greg Olsen, Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald are all recent examples.

The proverb from the Fitzgerald study speaks less to the mistake of paying guys like Njoku too much and more to drafting them too high in the first place.

The current Browns regime — while not the regime that made the mistake of selecting Njoku too high — is likely going out of its way not to be yet another franchise that drafts another’s franchise tight end.

A CHARACTERISTIC OF LATE BLOOMING TIGHT ENDS IS ATHLETICISM, AND NJOKU IS A FREAK
At PFF, we’ve built an athleticism score for each player in each facet of play, which uses a combination of NFL Scouting Combine and pro-day data along with principal component analysis to determine how many standard deviations a player’s PFF grade would be if we knew only the combination of his size, athleticism and age at the draft.

Njoku’s reading is the best we’ve done in the PFF era, as he combines elite length with explosiveness and speed at the position:



His athleticism score of 3.1 (99th) percentile is higher than all of the aforementioned players listed in the previous section, but each of them was a great athlete in their own right:

• Vernon Davis famously ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the 2006 NFL Scouting Combine and also vertical jumped 42 inches.

• Visanthe Shiancoe ran a 4.68-second 40-yard dash out of Morgan State, with a vertical jump of 39.5 inches.

• Benjamin Watson ran a 4.50-second 40-yard dash coming out of Georgia.

• Delanie Walker ran a 4.49-second 40-yard dash coming out of Central Missouri State.

• Jared Cook ran a 4.49-second 40 and vertical jumped 41 inches out of South Carolina.

• Martellus Bennett’s 1.53-second 10-yard split is in the 99th percentile of tight ends.

• Charles Clay ran a 4.69-second 40-yard dash and recorded a 93rd-percentile short shuttle.

• Greg Olsen ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash coming out of Miami, with a 38-inch vertical jump.

• Eric Ebron’s athleticism score was 2.3, which is in the 99th percentile of tight ends.

• Vance McDonald ran a respectable 4.69-second 40 coming out of Rice in 2013.

While this list is neither predictive nor exhaustive in the process of trying to understand the thought process of the Cleveland Browns in giving Njoku this big deal, it is instructive.

In another piece, Timo Riske showed that more athletic players tend to age better. And while this trend is less pronounced for tight ends, it might be another in a collection of reasons why the Browns are betting on Njoku.

CONCLUSION
The Cleveland Browns are at an interesting crossroads in terms of their team building. The totality of the bill is not really due — from a cap perspective — on quarterback Deshaun Watson, but they will not be able to acquire cheap, young talent at premium positions as readily as they had in the past due to the trade to acquire him.

Njoku represents the fourth player this calendar year that the Browns have given a big deal to that doesn’t play a premium position, with Nick Chubb, Joel Bittonio and Wyatt Teller the others, which I think is something to monitor vis-à-vis the success of this signing.

Ultimately, when viewing this deal from the “average outcome” perspective, this is very much the overspend that it appeared to be at first blush. However, given the history of the tight end position, the justification is that the Browns are buying the tail of the distribution here — and that tail is fat.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-te-david-njoku-new-contract-cleveland-browns-2022
Posted By: oobernoober Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 04:25 PM
Originally Posted by MemphisBrownie
j/c:

Just commentary from someone who is pretty good on prop bets.

As others have pointed out, but deal is not quite the mega-contract it seems on the surface. The per-year amount for those first two years must've been where Berry had Njoku's market value pegged (Berry is a big 'let the market decide the value' guy).
Posted By: FrankZ Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 04:56 PM
To be fair, I think if you are willing to franchise a guy, you should be willing to give him some sort of long term deal as well. I don't think this contract is egregious.
Posted By: mgh888 Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 05:49 PM
Franchise deals are great for a high price, one year commitment. Big dollar Multi-year contracts have much more potential to hurt your cap situation if things don't go as well as hoped/expected. Depending on the team, you might have cap room for a high priced franchise tag this year but that cap space might diminish next year depending on what other 'stars' need to be resigned/retained. I think Berry is managing our cap very carefully so probably less of a concern than other teams? And hopefully Njoku will earn every penny and this be a non-issue.
Posted By: MemphisBrownie Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 06:00 PM
David Njoku contract details:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/david-njoku-21770/
Posted By: MemphisBrownie Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 06:07 PM
Originally Posted by MemphisBrownie

So, from the start it looks like a really favorable contract for the Browns. 40% of the guaranteed money has been accounted for in the signing bonus alone; $17MM guaranteed at sign (60%). Cap hits of $3.3MM and $8.3MM in 2022 and 2023 respectively which seems SUPER low. They can get out of it in 2024 with a dead cap hit of $6.8MM (not minor, but not anything wild). Even if they like his production in 2024, I think that will be a restructure year regardless because a $18MM cap hit seems SUPER high at this point.

Just my initial reaction to the numbers but I could be missing something.
Posted By: FrankZ Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 06:35 PM
Originally Posted by mgh888
Franchise deals are great for a high price, one year commitment. Big dollar Multi-year contracts have much more potential to hurt your cap situation if things don't go as well as hoped/expected. Depending on the team, you might have cap room for a high priced franchise tag this year but that cap space might diminish next year depending on what other 'stars' need to be resigned/retained. I think Berry is managing our cap very carefully so probably less of a concern than other teams? And hopefully Njoku will earn every penny and this be a non-issue.

And this contract looks like Berry working his magic.
Posted By: MemphisBrownie Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 05/31/22 06:51 PM


I like Njoku, but not this much!
Posted By: MemphisBrownie Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 07/15/22 12:48 PM


Pfft......simple.
Posted By: Bull_Dawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 07/15/22 02:45 PM
Posted By: PortlandDawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 07/15/22 02:58 PM
Workout warrior.
This team still needs a TE.
Prove me wrong David. Please prove me wrong.
Posted By: Milk Man Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 07/15/22 03:09 PM
Originally Posted by MemphisBrownie


Pfft......simple.

Nothing any kid that grew up in the 80s couldn't handle!

Posted By: MemphisBrownie Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 10/24/22 04:32 PM
j/c:




RIP to all the freezing cold takes on "JOKE".
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 10/24/22 04:33 PM
Props to David. Hell of an improvement and year
Posted By: PrplPplEater Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 10/24/22 04:36 PM
Indeed. The production is finally matching the hype.

Now, about the rest of the receiving corps (an ongoing problem for a few years now)...
Posted By: Ballpeen Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 10/24/22 05:32 PM
Originally Posted by MemphisBrownie
j/c:




RIP to all the freezing cold takes on "JOKE".
If he keeps playing well, there is no need for freezing cold takes.

Right now he has 7 games of good play compared to 4 years of less than good play.

I am not one to say he needs 4 more years of good play. I take it as it comes. He is playing as I would expect him to play.

Good job.
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 10/24/22 06:25 PM
We’ll also miss his blocking. Bryant doesn’t have his skill set at all
Posted By: Versatile Dog Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 10/24/22 07:31 PM
Njoku has been having an excellent year. I haven't always been his biggest fan, but the guy is proving it on the field. Hopefully, his injury isn't serious.
Posted By: CapCity Dawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 10/27/22 02:37 PM
Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Njoku has been having an excellent year. I haven't always been his biggest fan, but the guy is proving it on the field. Hopefully, his injury isn't serious.

Agreed. The drop-off from him to Bryant is significant. Let's hope it is not too long of an injury. And hoping the Pharaoh can step up.
Posted By: YTownBrownsFan Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 10/27/22 03:23 PM
Originally Posted by CapCity Dawg
Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Njoku has been having an excellent year. I haven't always been his biggest fan, but the guy is proving it on the field. Hopefully, his injury isn't serious.

Agreed. The drop-off from him to Bryant is significant. Let's hope it is not too long of an injury. And hoping the Pharaoh can step up.


I believe that Brown is in the concussion protocol ... so who knows if he'll even be available.
Posted By: steve0255 Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 10/27/22 03:26 PM
Brown was added to the concussion protocol Wednesday, Chris Easterling of the Akron Beacon Journal reports. Being placed in concussion protocol 3-days after the fact does not bode well for Pharaoh being on the field on Monday.
Posted By: CapCity Dawg Re: Browns Extend David Njoku - 10/28/22 02:37 PM
Originally Posted by YTownBrownsFan
Originally Posted by CapCity Dawg
Originally Posted by Versatile Dog
Njoku has been having an excellent year. I haven't always been his biggest fan, but the guy is proving it on the field. Hopefully, his injury isn't serious.

Agreed. The drop-off from him to Bryant is significant. Let's hope it is not too long of an injury. And hoping the Pharaoh can step up.


I believe that Brown is in the concussion protocol ... so who knows if he'll even be available.

Did not know that, thanks for the info.
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