+some juice to move up so they could select Will Anderson

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland...haun-watsons-contract-moving--209728930/

How The Cleveland Browns Manage Deshaun Watson's Contract Moving Forward & His Extension
How the Cleveland Browns work with Deshaun Watson's contract beyond the 2023 season as the salary cap hits start to increase
Jack Duffin
JACK DUFFIN
4 hrs
4
The first two years of Deshaun Watson's Cleveland Browns contract were easy to predict. He was always going to have a low cap charge in the first year because they needed the space to pay everyone else and remain competitive in years to come. When he was signed by the Browns and extended I wrote on how they would manage his deal moving forward and said few things are as certain as him being restructured in his second season.

It is important to remember that a restructure isn't a pay cut in any way, it is just taking the payment as a signing bonus instead which allows the team to backload the money on the salary cap. It is the same way as a credit card doesn't make your purchase free it just means you don't have to account for it the day you buy it.

Here is how Watson's contract looks to the team and his agent in terms of pay:

2022 - $46m

2023 - $46m

2024 - $46m

2025 - $46m

2026 - $46m

Here is what happens if you look at it on the salary cap, I have color coded each of the $46m payments so you can follow them through the deal.


Once cash has been restructured and converted into a signing bonus you can't trade or move this money, it is already in the player's bank account. You also can't move it around on the salary cap again other than if you cut/trade them in which case it escalates up to an earlier year.

So when looking at how much the team needs to pay the player moving forward we ignore this proration and focus on the unpaid cash amounts in base salary which is $46m a year.

2024 RESTRUCTURE
For Watson's third season, Andrew Berry has an interesting decision to make with how they deal with the contract and I am going to write this as if everything is going well and he is playing like a top 16 (ideally top 8) quarterback. If he has a disaster in 2023 then I will go down the rabbit hole of how they would it out long term but that isn't something I am going to get into today.

I had the 2023 restructure as a 99.99% certainty but with 2024 it is probably around a 66% chance that they do it again. This is because it will give a lot of power and leverage in the next negotiation to Watson and his agent. Let us look at what happens to the deal if they restructure him again:


You get the 2024 salary cap hit down from $63,977,000 to $28,145,000 but then the cap hits for 2025, 2026 and 2027 when he wouldn't even be on the team would increase. So this decision comes down heavily to do you see him as part of the long-term with the team or not, they aren't going to restructure if they aren't really confident in his play.


2025 RESTRUCTURE
After the 2024 season provided he is playing well another restructure isn't realistic at all because here is what the deal would look like:


An $81,884,000 cap hit for his final 2026 season and then $53,747,000 of dead cap when he is no longer on the team in the 2027 season. These numbers are far too high to realistically work with. So what are there other options if they don't want to roll with charges of $72,935,000 in 2025 and 2026 without a restrucure?


THE EXTENSION
So I expect the Cleveland Browns to get around the table with Watson's agent after the 2024 season and likely before free agency kicks off to finalise an extension to his current deal with two years remaining. I'm not sure they will fully guarantee the entire thing but they certainly could look at having rolling guarantees for the final two years which guarantee a year in advance, similar to what the Patrick Mahomes deal does.

Two years down the line we might be looking at something in the $55m to $57m range as the top of the quarterback market and it always seems to be the next man up gets the biggest payday. We have Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence to go at the time of writing and the highest is Lamar Jackson's $52m a year. So if we work with them each getting a million a year more that would be $56m a year for Watson's next deal if we don't get anymore.

So if they give Watson a deal worth $280m for five years with $168m fully guaranteed and then injury guarantees of $112m for the final two seasons which guarantee a year in advance. I could see another flat structure on the salary cap, it might look like the below or they could build option bonuses straight into it which I will cover in a second.

2027 - $56m

2028 - $56m

2029 - $56m

2030 - $56m

2031 - $56m

They would then restructure his 2025 contract year allowing them to keep kicking the can down the road.



RESTRUCTURE IT ALL
What if they went ahead and did the entire contract with option bonuses allowing them to backload every season, they would need agreement from Watson that he intends to retire a Cleveland Brown as they will need to work some cap magic on the back end.

So I have restructured every season in this contract all the way to the end of the 10 seasons.


The reason he has to retire a Cleveland Brown is that after 10 years of restructuring deals, there is $109.02m of dead cap remaining once his deal has expired. If he follows in the footsteps of Drew Brees and Tom Brady of signing a 'fake' one-year deal to take him through until the 2nd of June they can then split this dead cap charge over two seasons because then it is manageable for a team on the salary cap.

For these two years, they would need to change to a cheap rookie quarterback or a bridge like Jacoby Brissett while you get around the $43m and $65m of dead cap but as long as you win a Super Bowl in the ten seasons of Watson no one will mind a transition as he retires.

Obviously, if he wants to keep playing then you can add one-year deals on the back end and keep backloading as he might not be ready to hang up the cleats.

Pi

I love PIE!

Love me strawberry pie

If he gets back to his ceiling then it's 100% worth the trade...

You need to change the thread title and cut a bunch of numbers from the end. It’s annoying on a cell phone and not particularly clever. I look forward to you doing so. 😀

Would a, hundred digit number system, b/c we use a ten digit number system, would a hundred digit number system lead to more repeating numbers in pi, for example the 3 repeats once for double 3s, and the 8 once for double 8s, but none of them 3 times back to back, so would a hundred digit number system lead to more or less chance that a digit would repeat twice like 333, instead of only 33, in pi, compared to the current ten digit number system.
and

D. Watson is overrated, because he can be counted upon to throw an int in a playoff game that will end your chances for success
and he takes too many sacks by being unwilling to let a play fail and throw it away,
there are things to work on.

Not sure you will find many - if anyone - who would disagree with this statement. What is likely to cause some hot debates is if he doesn't return to 100% of his prime Houston self. And to clarify once again because I can see this being a hot button thing too - the evaluation of the trade should have zero to do with the decision to move on from the former QB. One has nothing to do with the other. If the time and decision was to move on - there was a lot of other ways to move on other than make that trade and give that contract.

It will be interesting to see and it will be a roller coaster ride whether we are great or whether we are mid-pack.

Who is better Watson at his past 100% or Burrow now?

That's ridiculously east for me -- Watson.

NEITHER
if Kevin Stefanski is coaching them
and K. is not a bad coach, eeehhhhh, he just sometimes is kryptonite to his own offense.

All indications are that DW will return to form this year… If he does we should be contenders. If he doesn’t? Everyone should get the axe.

We all want DW to perform. My guess is he will be fine.

But when you look at this from a organizational point of view. He is one player. He had a track record in the NFL. The Browns made the decision to trade for him.

Lots of trades are made. Some work. Some don't.

If DW for some reason plays poorly does that mean AB, KS, and the coaching staff deserve to be fired? Ultimately, it was Haslam who made the decision. Haslam had to ok the money and the deal.

DW's hypothetical failure does not mean AB, KS, and the coaching staff did something wrong.

They should be judged on how they did their job. DW just like any player has to do his job.

I say West !

In reality I think there are lots of different angles and takes possible on this. Both from W/L record. Play off record. Statistics record. I don't find the answer to be clear cut.

I could see a debate about the relative ability of the teams they were on - but the 2019 Bengals without Burrows was bad with a 2-14 record. He's been intrinsic to their becoming a contender even if they have added other talent around him. I don't know Houston's roster and who they lost and gained, and I am sure there is some probably a lot that went on - but in 2016 before drafting Watson they were 9-7 and first in a weak division.

At the end of the day - I don't care about his Houston days, the only thing that matters is how well he plays for the Browns. I am ready for a massive improvement from his first 6 games after a 2 year absence.

** To add -- the question that matters is this: May 2023 and you can choose either guy to start your franchise, who do you pick. That's an easy pick and you take Burrows all day everyday. Hopefully the answer changes if asked May 2024.

You would say west.

I read that numerous times before I noticed. 🤣

Besides his six starts from last year, what other "indications" are there? Those are the only indications anyone has to go on other than just claiming, "There's no reason he can't be what he used to be."

[quote=mgh888]

** To add -- the question that matters is this: May 2023 and you can choose either guy to start your franchise, who do you pick. That's an easy pick and you take Burrows all day everyday. Hopefully the answer changes if asked May 2024.

Burrow is so ridiculously overrated. His arm talent isn't special...he is throwing to (2) #1 WRs. Give him a gaggle of #2+ and #3 WRs like we've had STR (until last year) and see what he can do. There is a reason why he couldn't beat out Dwayne Haskins at OSU.

What type of offense was it that Dwayne Haskins ran again? You seem to dismiss the difference in what the two have accomplished in the NFL. You know, the part that actually matters at this point.

Some may argue their NFL performance bolsters his argument. I mean, Haskins was throwing the ball to Terry McLaurin, Kelvin Harmon and Steven Sims.

Some may argue that. But then I think we both know that such an argument is either considered viable or not depending on the name of the player involved. Same goes with whether a player is injured or not. For certain players it's accepted that has a direct negative impact as it pertains to their performance on the field. For other players that same thing is not accepted and is dismissed. It's all in the name.

I know that you feel that way about Burrows. I personally think you sell him short - yes, Chase is elite. But Burrows is smart, accurate and grounded. I think plenty of QB's would fail to be as effective as Burrows even with that talent. jmo.

Burrows gets away with lesser arm talent because he throws with an extremely high level of anticipation. It’s the sane thing that made Brees great. I’d take Burrows ability to read a D and throw with excellent anticipation over ball velocity or general arm power. Doesn’t matter if you can throw it through a wall if you can’t hit the wall on time and in stride. Besides, most throws in the NFL don’t require a cannon. Typically big armed QBs rely in their cannon when they get into trouble. Burrow relies on his smarts and anticipation to stay out of trouble.

Outside of Mahomes I’d take Burrow over every other QB in the league. It’s not even close.

Amen, IF we get the Texans DW- the Pro Bowl QB- we get long into playoffs AND might win a SB. The city of Cleveland would go crazy with SB win and would get monkey off their backs with a SB appearance. We got a deal on DW salary IF he produces......time will tell.

Oh the love for the cincy @uarterback is a little too much to read at the moment.
He has a good head coach, one thing Burrow does do well like Dan Marino did is throw @uickly after the snap.

When I think back into the six games DW played last season, I remember a few flashes of his arm talent and his running ability, but there was a lot of him looking unsure, hesitating. Likely due to a combination of rust, lack of cohesiveness due to lack of real-game work with the O, and that our receivers struggled to get open at times .

He’ll be good this year, I have little doubt of that.

Yes, he had a few flashes of his old self.... hoping he can get more consistent and comfortable with this offense.... if Watson can get back to form, we can have a killer offense...

That's really desperate in your argument when you bring up
Haskins and Burrow and who was the better QB at OSU.
It's really irrelevant at this point.

Field smarts, anticipation , pre snap reads, going through
Proper reads trumps arm strength anyway all day
Burrow is everything Baker Mayfield wasn't
Burrow is a top 3 NFL QB.

Burrow is talked about as if he were the 2nd best QB in the NFL (which is laughable)...one would think that a QB with THAT kind of talent (you know...second best on the planet) could have beaten out a pedestrian QB like Haskins regardless of the offense that was run.

Burrow's best throw is the -0- air yards WR screen to Chase...his 2nd best throw is to throw a Flacco up for Chase to run under or punk the DB...his 3rd best throw is the 6-8 yarder over the middle to a wide open TE...wide open because the D is defending (2) #1 WRs. His 10 yard outs are a pick 6 waiting to happen and when he has to try and put some stank on the throw it shows his arm talent. He's beyond fortunate that the Bengals appear to know how to draft WRs and has a HC (same guy his whole career) that doesn't try and make him something he's not.

Even the college ranks disagree with you. Burrow won a Heisman. I don't know who you are trying to convince. The posters on this board or yourself. So far it seems the only one you have convinced is yourself.

Once again, OSU ran an RPO style of offense. That fit Haskins style. That has nothing to to do with which one was actually the better QB. BTW- Where is Haskins Heisman?

So did JFF... as a freshman.

So are you too trying to suggest that Haskins is a better QB than Burrow? Or that Haskins was a better college QB than Burrow? Context adds value. The argument he is making is that Haskins was better than Burrow in college or he would have beaten Haskins out as the starter at OSU. My point was the Burrow was a better QB "in college" than Haskins was. Hopefully making the context clearer for you was helpful.

System QBs do exist- and the Haskin/Burrows debate- who cares- I think of Texas QB Vince Young- 30 and 2 college record.....but an athlete QB who wasn't very smart according to Wonderlic.....I'd take Burrow's smarts and anticipation every time at Pro Level.

Can you prove Burrows best throw to Chase is the WR screen? Or is that a illusion
In your mind? Cause anykind of highlight catch by Chase is that
He is running past defense on a 30 to 50 td catch.
Did you bother to watch the games where Chase lit up the Chiefs
He wasn't catching WR screens to account for his 250 yards

Burrow is a great QB. I hate that he plays for the Bengals. He reads defenses and processes information very quickly. He is fearless and stands in the pocket. I was impressed last year when he beat the Titans in a playoff game while being sacked 9 times. Most QB's would have been shell shocked and not looking down field getting hit that often. This is a silly argument saying he is not very good.

Watson averaged 3.5 wins the last 3 years.
4 wins..
Joe Burrow who is a very mediocre qb is clearly better then him
For the last 3 years.

General consensus. I’m Missouri too, show me. But I can’t base anything on anything except general consensus because other than his games last year that were putrid, I have ZERO other data points that I’ve personally witnessed.

Burrow is a long way from mediocre.

In his first three years here are his stats:

2020
65.3 comp %, 2688 yds, 13 td's, 5 int's, 89.8 rating

2021
70.4 %, 4611 yds, 34 td's 14 int's, 108.3 rating

2022
68.3 %, 4475 yds, 35 td's 12 int's 100.8

Post season record 5-2 Losing in the Super Bowl and AFC title game

A long way from mediocre in a three year career.

DW has a career in the NFL. It is there to look at for those who wish to know.

Watson's career stats are really good also

67.0 CMP%, 15,641 TDS, 111 TD, 41 INT, and a 102.3 Rating.

I would put Watson and Lamar Jackson (coming off 2nd consecutive year injured) both just below Burrow and ahead Pickett in our division. Both Watson and Jackson have the ability to have a better season than Burrow but last 2 years Burrow has been the best and should rank higher.

It's pointless trying to say who is better. They are all good. It still takes good play around them for things to work. Receivers need to get open and catch the ball, linemen need to block. If those guys do their job, then all can be really good.

No doubt QB is important, but to me it isn't the most important position in sports except that it is possible for them to play every game. From a pure domination standpoint, a baseball pitcher or hockey goalie are more impactful than a QB.

Sure now he is ready after missing nearly the whole season. He realizes that second chances don't come very easy. Hope he can live and learn.

The Constant thing on the Browns offense since 'after 20nineteen' after Freddie kicthens left,
is K. Stefanski and the 'committee of blame' because

they won't admit who is actually calling plays in press conferences, they say it's often a lot of joint discussion.

Well a constant, is the offense can't be consistent from one drive/possession to the next,
take any 3 link chain of offensive possessions and they look way head scratchable, they look not ready for the game situation that suddenly presents itself.

and that was going on in twenty nineteen, and 2020, and 202I, and 2022, and that was when you had
R. Higgins, and Jarvis Landry, and Odell Beckham Jr. and ? and when you had Baker Mayfield,
and that was also going on when you had
Anthony Schwart, and DPJ, and Amari Cooper, and Jacoby Brissett,
and that was also going on when you had those guys and Deshaun Watson for 6 games, and when you had Case Keenum for 2 games

so the 'committee of playcallers, continuing the inconsistency of 3 link chain of offensive drives streak,
meaning, can they put back, to back, to back, good offensive drives together, or, not shoot themselves in the foot more than once,
... I think that's the glaring weakness of the football team,

maybe they don't need to fix it,... because the afc north nfl is made of the toughest defenses... maybe we'll just have to live with it, but new player, > new player,> new player,
changing hammers does not make a carpenter smarter.

I decided to put this post here.

It is indirectly related to DW.

The trade for Moore IMO will have the biggest impact on this offense. The reason is because Moore can line up anywhere. Also, he can be a target anywhere on the field. He ran a 4.35. He has long speed. But he also has quick speed. He can get open quickly. Then add he is a threat after the catch.

We did not have a guy like him. I like that he can get short yardage and then hit the jets.

He could be a safety valve on comeback routes if DW is avoiding the rush.

I like what he brings to the table. IMO DW is going to find him often. The more they connect. The better they will develop.

Moore is a guy who I think we will find out early was a steal.

I agree.

I liked him when I saw him while playing at Ole Miss.

I liked him as he entered the draft.

I like him now.

In his time with the Jets. He played with four quarterbacks. He had run in with the OC.

Sometimes where you get drafted can wreck your career. He is only 23.

I was calling for this trade when I first heard about him.

IMO we really got a good receiver for little risk. I will be surprised if he doesn't ball out.

I thought this video was relevant to discussions about Watson's re-emergence as an elite QB. I will admit that in general, I am not a Chris Simms fan. I think he fawns and defers to Florio more often than not. In this case, on a show without Florio, I think Simms wasn't handcuffed by bias or a predetermined agenda. I also admit that I am biased, I want Watsson to succeed.

Simms makes it clear that his evaluation and ranking of Watson is based on the six-game stretch of starts for the Browns in 2022.

I did crop this video but you might have to back it up to 55:35 to catch the very beginning of the segment.


[video:youtube][/video]

This is just a general statement.

Given that at this time of year nobody knows a thing. But, this is when everybody has an opinion on teams and how they will look and finish.

What would make people happy or optimistic?

Every analyst and his mother says the Browns will win the division and be in the Super Bowl?

Or, every talking head says we suck. The Browns are a last place team in the making. We wasted money on a pervert. Our head coach and GM are in over their heads and will be fired at seasons end.

Or maybe, nobody cares and basically says until we play and do something. Same old Browns the mistake on the lake?

The jury is still out whether or not the Browns wasted money on the pervert.

A couple of true comments come to mind in response. "You are what you are until you're not." To be considered better you first must show you are better.

"The proof is in the pudding." Nobody knows what they are until they show us what they are.

As for the analysts it means nothing. They get paid to sell air time and get clicks on the internet. Much of the time they get paid to have opposing views on things just to make it interesting. But every year we see people posting views that support their own like it actually means something. Whether one believes the Browns will be great this year or not, posters quoting sportswriters they claim to "believe or trust" means nothing. Often times you'll find the writers they believe and trust simply share their views on things which is the bulk of the reason they trust them in the first place.

There are a million ways to be a fan. Just as there are a million or more, varying opinions about the season's prospects for the team. I choose to be optimistic every year. It's my nature. I can afford this luxury as it applies to sports, it's not that serious. I just don't let it spill into every aspect of my life.

Regarding the Browns, I don't hold to a belief that past disappointments predestine the team to failure. I see it more like coin flip probability. Every toss of the coin is equivalent to each season.

If other people approach it differently then they just do, and I choose not to expend any energy in opposition to that.

As far as what would make me happy from analysts? A balanced evaluation of the teams' strengths and deficiencies. Something like "the team has strengths in x,y and z. It's not clear that obstacles a,b and c have been corrected. If they correct a,b and c they could compete for the division. If they do not they are likely to finish out of the playoffs."

In each of the highlights, is it just me or is Watson throwing the ball after about 5 seconds?

If so, that is pretty good coverage by the secondary.

He is getting the ball out quicker than that. About 3 seconds on the deeper throws.

The first throw in the first video was a pretty lazy five count

compared to last year, the ball is def. going where he wants it to this year. Helps when you have some reliable targets now. But his deeper throws look money..practice blah blah, last year he was overthrowing I think and stuff in the dirt. I think last year he pressed to hard to prove he still had it and forced it and then the whole suspension looming. he looks more relaxed this year

Good to be back from the hospital.
Look all this stat stuff is not real football. You all are playing strat-0-matic a great game played in the 70-80's. Looks like the physical rust is finally kicking off. What will the results be. 4-13 with great QB stats you can blow it out of your butts. 13-4 as our record I could care less what Watson's stats are in my eyes he is playing great. The trade has two different roads completely different. One is a team built by the draft and FA. The other by Watson and FA but the later does not have the cap availability as does the draft build up. Both have a good nucleus to build on. Garrett, Ward, JOK, Newsome, etc. and on O our entire OL, Chubb, Cooper, DPJ a Healthy Mayfield or a replacement bought or drafted. Again I could have been convinced on the Watson trade if it wasn't for the sexual negatives that still hands over Watson's head. Sure wish he would apologize sincerely but he has shown no remorse what so ever. That is what is keeping me from going gaga over Watson. I really liked him com out of college with that national title. We will see, if he come out this year with the brilliance that you all project as in Bernie status. Then he is the best!

WE WILL SEE...I love my Browns and I hope to win this year. Cant wait too much longer.

Good to see you, boss.

Gotta keep in mind though... As much as we all want Watson to stand on a podium and express his deep sorrow; there are still two court cases remaining (and rumors that one may go to trial). I'm sure his attorneys have told him to zip it and don't open it.

Hang in there, going to be an exciting year.

It's much easier to throw well when you know you aren't going to get hit. We'll see what happens when the bullets start flying. Hopefully he will look as well in the heat of battle.

Pit... No QB does well when getting pressured. None, that is the key for every D. Pressure the QB. That is why our running game puts a damper on all out pressure all the time. Good play action and Pass Pro blocking will be key with our OL.

jmho

My point was simply that it's much easier to throw the ball around when you know that nobody will hit you.

When you watch the Combine or "pro days" for quarterbacks it is not about playing football.

There is no defense. No pressure. No reads. Just throw the ball.

That is what I am talking about now. Just watching clips of the OTA's and practice.

Deshaun Watson throws a beautiful ball. Watching him go through footwork drills. He is excellent. He moves and makes it look so easy.

From pure quarterbacking form DW looks as good as you can look. His form is sweet. His release is a clean over the top release. His throwing mechanics are spot on. Great hip rotation. All the small details that go into throwing a ball. DW has them all down pat. He can fire it or put touch on the ball.

He moves so well. Really good athlete.

Just watching him is like a clinic on how it is supposed to look when you throw a football.

We can talk all summer about this, and no doubt we will, bottom line is we will see in the fall.

Before the hold-out and the legal issues, he was a stud. He’s young enough so he will LIKELY return to form. He better be, or we are so screwed.

Sounds like Watson is making the best of his 69th 2nd chance to meet his potential. Fingers crossed he can get it done.

There is one factor that plays a major role in success and failure in team sports.

That factor is confidence. Professional players have been around. In order to get to the level of a professional players they have seen good and bad.

They know talent. They know talent because they have competed against talent in order to become a professional.

Receivers have played with different quarterbacks. They have watched different quarterbacks. They know what great looks like.

So does every other player on a team. There is no fooling them. As a teammate when you practice you see. When you play games you see.

When teams become good and start winning confidence builds. They begin to believe in the team.

The Browns this season have to get to that point where they expect to win. As camp approaches and the hard work begins at some point before the season begins they need to build that confidence. Good practice and good preparation will help. Coaching counts.

The early part of the season is important. Winning is important. Losing is important. You can not fall behind especially if you have been a losing team.

IMO the Browns need to start fast. They need to win in order to believe they can. IMO this camp should set a tone. Urgency to win. I think by the end of camp the players should know. We are in it to win.

If the Browns can start fast and win games early it will go a long way for them to have a successful year.

Like they did in 2020.