You would think that the top 32 picks in the draft would have to be pretty good.

Yet we know the odds tell us. Not so fast. The teams that make those 32 picks all believe in their picks.

I dislike the term busts. It is not likely one of the 32 players will get cut. But some may not get a second contract.

What likely first rounder will turn out not so good?

Nothing against the guy but I see a average quarterback in Kenny Pickett. He reminds me of AJ McCarron.

His stats at Pitt show a very good 2021 season. The previous three are average at best. He has 38 career fumbles at Pitt.

It is not that he is bad. I just do not see exceptional at any one thing. In college you need to do something really well. When I watch him I see average.

He looks like a career pro backup. That is not failure. At the same time that is not what a team wants from a first rounder.

I could wrong for sure. I have hit and missed on quarterback evaluations. I liked Darnold. I liked Mahomes. I thought Lamar would fail. I loved Allen but thought he would take years and may bust.

But hell I don't get paid to evaluate. And lots of GM's have been way worse.

A guy like Garrett Wilson. I don't believe he could fail. Take him to the bank.

So, if you see a first rounder you doubt. Throw him out there and tell why you believe he is not so good.

I don't know. And fail in who's eyes? If you asked people on the board, Gerrard Warren was a failure, yet he had a long starting career in both Cleveland and a few other teams.

Lot's of reasons why guys don't make it. I think a big one is some players goal is to get drafted high, hit their lottery, then coast the rest of the way. Their goal was met once they signed the contract. There are no more goals after that. That's human nature. Just reading this board you see people saying if they made what players made for just one year they could retire. I am not putting that down, just saying to illustrate the point.

Sometimes it is injury. Sometimes just plain poor draft evaluation. I guess it has to be one of those 3 things.

These are my thoughts too.