Every year this is an annual thread. I'm not usually the poster who originates the thread but it's only one week away until the Bills and Rams kick off the 2022 season. I don't know if this thread is normally posted by anyone specific anyway. In years past posters sometimes explain the reasoning behind their predictions while others just post the numbers alone. There's no one size fits all to how it gets addressed. I'm one who at least tries to explain my reasoning so I will do so in this post. For me it's pure conjecture. As has been pointed out, preseason means very little in regards to the regular season. We have seen very little of the starters. We can't predict injuries or how many of the questions that we have will be answered. All any of us can do is predicate our opinions of the season record with the factors we can account for now and how that may impact the season record. And all of that is once again an opinion based on how we feel things will or might play out. So here goes....

I predict 7-10. I know, I know. That's certainly not what anyone wants to hear or believe. That's not really what I want to believe either but I have reasons why I do. Just last year my prediction was 10-7 and people acted like I was the one who crucified Christ because I didn't predict even more wins. But I digress. So I will list the points that made me arrive at that conclusion whether that conclusion is right or wrong.

The WR room.

I see it as being very weak. Cooper's numbers declined in both of his last two seasons in Dallas. He went from 1189 yards in 2019, to 1114 in 2020 all the way down to 865 last year. The thing that stands out most to me is that last year he was relegated to Dallas #2 WR. So that means he had a lot more single coverage than he had in the prior two years as Dallas #1 target. I don't see that as a positive sign. Behind Cooper we have DPJ who has shown potential and ability, has not stepped up to being someone the Browns can count on for heavy production. Can it happen now that he is the #2 WR? Yes, it can. Yet I think people should remember that their talk about DPJ stepping up this season was predicated on having a QB who could elevate the players around him. That's not the current situation the Browns are in. Behind these there's pretty much nothing but JAG's. And that's being kind.

The OL.

The Browns have a great OL with one exception. The C position. What they have there is a complete mystery in terms of a starting caliber NFL C. And I've seen people say that with Botonio one one side ad Tretter on the the side, that will be able to help compensate to soften the blow if there's a problem. And that's certainly true for helping to disguise the C problem. But how can Botonio and Tretter play the G position up to their normal level if they're busy compensating to help the C? In real time they can't be doing both at the same time. So if they're compensating for the C it will certainly impact their G play to some extent. I mean you can't be getting to the second level if you're inside helping your C block. So while there is a question in my mind how all of this is going to work out, if they get sold C play it should be a non issue. We'll see.

DT

While if the Browns get solid play from the C position they should be able to run the ball, will they be able to stop their opposition from running the ball? As of now I have no idea. I think JOK is certainly a valuable tool in making that a reality, but once again he can't be in two places at the same time. He can't step inside and help in run protection while being in the flat in pass protection. What I haven't seen anyone talk about is how going all in to help prevent the opposition from running the ball on the inside can open up the short passing game to Browns opponents. I look for the Browns opponents to use a heavy dose of play action to exploit this.

PR

I think all the ground has already been covered in how weak they are in talent as it pertains to having a top tier punt returner. It does make a difference in field position.

TE

They gave Njoku a huge contract. Once again based more on potential than than being a top ten TE. This will be his sixth NFL season. Sure from an age perspective he's still young for a sixth year NFL TE, I still have trouble recalling NFL TE's who have suddenly broken into being a top 10 TE in year six of their NFL career. As far as depth at the TE position goes, I think they're worse off than they were last season.

QB

This is the area I think is the most critical. While at this time watson is scheduled to be back in week 12. As I said to begin with preseason isn't a guide to the regular season but I do believe seeing the rust with watson was very real. So when he comes back in week 12, how many weeks will it be until we see the normal watson? I for one don't think it's realistic to expect a watson that's playing up to his regular form straight out of the gate though I have no idea how many weeks/games it will take until he does.

The vast majority of posters on this board stated that we couldn't win the division or compete anymore because we had three great or strong QB's within the division. That without a big upgrade we were screwed. It's not my intention to debate that point here. But what it does is bring into question why anyone would now think differently when we won't have that until week 12 and even then watson will certainly be rusty. So when will the browns have that huge upgrade at QB? Week 14, 15 or later?

I fully understand that Brissett hasn't played a single down with the Browns. He was a turnover machine in one stint as a starter and a steady minimal games manager another time as starter. No team has ever considered him an NFL starter other than in the backup role. There is nothing there that indicates he will be an upgrade over what we saw last year even with Brissett being healthy. Once again, there's hope and there's wishing. But I don't base these predictions on hope and wishes. I base them on past performance, current circumstances and trying to be realistic.

Last year they won 8 games. I think we're worse at the WR position, most likely the C position, the QB position, TE depth beyond Njoku. I believe that will account for one less win this season than last season.

As an overall I can see the Browns winning anywhere between 6-8 games. But you know, we have to make a prediction so I settled on the middle of what I saw as a realistic possibility. It would make me happy to be wrong about it.

6-8 wins. I just can't see much more than that.

I've been saying that right along. 6-8 wins and last place in our division and I'd love to be dead wrong. Well, at least we'll get a high 2nd round pick!

Like to add one thing. A healthy Jacoby Brisset may be a little better than a hurt Baker. JB does have some experience and has started before. Again, we'll have to wait to see what happens.

10-7 .... No idea how we get there, but that's what it needs to be. Way too much talent on the team to squander a season and flush it down the drain.

I have to see a game.

I just don't know JB with this team. I have not seen him play much at all.

I know the rest of the team. I believe our defense can be very good.

I know we can run the ball and have a much better kicker.

But I have to see Jacoby operate the offense.

I just looked at the schedule. I just don't know how we will play some of the teams on the schedule. There looks to be games that could go either way. How do we play the Steelers, Bengals, and Ravens? I don't know.

Depends how the games go but i could easily see 5-12 to 7-10

The Browns are a talented team.but it takes more than talent
To win. The coaching staff returns intact. So there is continuity on
The teaching end of things.

The defense is ahead of the offense as far playmakers go.
However though, it's a offensive driven league,fueled by passing.
And that's where the questions come Into play.

Yeah the Browns can run the ball. It's the best attack in the league
But you can't rely on a running game to advance to the SB.
Brisset is under the gun to have a above .500 record.
He can play game manager,but he can't outduel the Jacksons,the Burrows
And the Allen's up ahead.
To make matters worse,he lacks the vertical killers to open up defenses
Berry has failed to bring elite talented WRs to the team.

I see a talented defense that could be burned out cause of ineffective
Passing game.

Cade York equals how many possible wins ?? 2 3?
Browns 6 11.not enough firepower on offense to be a playoff team

You're going to be in trouble with Big V the way this is going. lmao

Seriously though, I think we could go as low as 3-4 wins or as high as 10. My expectation is 6-8. And not because I like Baker.

And I say the 3-4 if subpar QB play or lousy play calling gets in their heads early, we're toast. I don't think this team looks remotely ready for the season, IMHO.

15-5, parade in mid-Feb

At Carolina - LOSS - they have a better offense, at home, and we never win openers
NY Jets - WIN - Flacco will probably be starting. We should win this.
Pittsburgh - LOSS - I have a sneaking feeling again that Pittsburgh will be better than people think. Great defense.
At Atlanta - WIN - 50/50 game because I think Atlanta has some scary guys to catch passes.
LA Chargers - LOSS - They are a super bowl talented roster. Might be an ugly game.
New England - WIN - I think this will be low scoring and we can inch one out.
At Baltimore - LOSS - Lamar runs wild and Tucker wins it for them again.
Cincinnati - LOSS - simply because you’re going to have to outscore them.
At Miami - LOSS - on the road and a 50/50 game. They have scary offensive weapons.
At Buffalo - LOSS - same as the Charger game. This could be a route.
Tampa Bay - LOSS - assuming Brady stays healthy.
At Houston - WIN - desperate win for us with Watson in the fold.
At Cincinnati - LOSS - again, they have a great offense and Watson won’t be all there yet.
Baltimore - WIN - we split with them.
New Orleans - WIN - 50/50 game, but I’ll give it to us at home in the cold.
At Washington - WIN - they won’t have much to play for at this point, and neither will we.
At Pittsburgh - LOSS - they still have an outside shot at the playoffs at this point and we don’t.


7-9. I think this is pretty realistic.

When I look at that schedule, Ok, you say
Carolina loss,
Jets win
Pittsburg loss
Atlanta Win, ok, ok,
2-2 I can take your word that that is a plausible, somewhat plausible scenario.

but I don't see any more wins, (looking for the wins?)
Chargers loss (If the NFL stole it last year, they'll steal it again.
New England LOSS, you had win, (Bellichic schooled the Browns last year, it may happen again.
At Baltimore Thatl'll be a loss because well, yaknow? hmm. (Maybe theres' a chance it comes down to a kick? I'm saying there's a chance.

Cincinnati, WIN, another time where Myles Garrett and the defense just wills it to happen.
At Miami loss
At Buffalo WIN, (5 or 4 years ago, the Browns beat them because Myles Garrett had a big play, and I think it happens again.)
Tampa Bay Loss.
Then you have supposedly Deshaun Watson joins the team. ... able to suit up and play.

What do I say the record is so far? ... (Counting 4-7, , 5-6 if they beat balt, they'll either split with the Ravens and Bengals or lose to the other one. so 4-7.

Watson comes back, Houston game?
Houston win
at Cincinnati Loss, 5-8, at this point they'll be almost eliminated
Baltimore Baltimore at home, WIN, (the NFL will want to point out that a league manufactured Watson win is something Baker rarely could do
New Orleans
At Washington
At Pittsburgh
So 6-8 with 3 games to play is the best case scenario if everything goes right, the best somewhat plausible scenario.

If the Browns are 5-9 and then lose to New Orleans, then I think they'll give up on the last two. (well not give up, but, ya, everyone knows)
So, 5-I2 is easily possible.
and then haslam does what he does and ...

This team went 8-9 last season with an injured Baker Mayfield. I do believe Brissett is better than an injured Baker Mayfield. I think the roster is better especially on defense. I see a 2 win improvement on last season.

Having woken up at 2:30, I have just watched the 1st half of the Bears game for the first time, I don't agree with that. At least on the Jacoby front. I have a feeling people will be calling for Dobbs early and often.

That said, I don't really disagree with the win totals you project.

I agree with this. I think 7 is probably the ceiling.

It's a wasted season again unless the defense becomes top 5 level. If there are one or two significant injuries on defense, say to Garrett and Ward, it's going to be really bad.

I keep saying this but people should set the appropriate expectations so not to be let down. It's going to be a long, unenjoyable season.

Enjoy the fall, family, holidays ...don't expect the Browns to be a source of enjoyment.

The worst thing Jimmy Haslam can do is blow this up if we only win 6-7 games. We have talent, a good coach and a good GM in AB. Stay the course we have set. We'll have our QB back full-time next season. In the meantime, you do the best you can with what you have this year. JMO

I guess it is just me but I can not just pack it in before a single game has been played.

Rosters in the NFL are ever changing and by a lot. New players enter the league. Free agents move to other teams. Some players improve by big margins. Others decline. Injuries hit all teams and we don't know where they will hit.

Yes there is history for Jacoby Brissett and he is a backup. But we have not seen him play with this team.

There is a lot of talent on the Browns. Myles, Chubb, Hunt, Ward, Newsome, Bitonio, Teller, Cooper, Jok, Clowney, Delpit.

We have depth especially in the secondary and at running back. Places other teams do not have and positions often hit by injury.

We do not need miracles from JB. All we need is efficient play.

I can not in fairness sit here today and say "oh the Browns ceiling is 8 games. Sorry, no can do.

j/c:

It's hard for me to make this prediction w/out seeing JB in this offense, but what the heck. The schedule starts off favorably, but the middle of it is brutal. There are a few winnable games towards the end, but I wonder if Watson will be rusty when he returns?

We have a very good OL if Conklin can stay healthy. I worry about our center in regards to pass blocking. He is a good run blocker, but his PFF pass blocking grade is awful. That could really hurt JB.

Obviously, we have great RBs.

I expect a big year from Njoku.

Cooper is a good WR, but I'm disappointed that Berry didn't get another WR. Not keeping Landry was a mistake. To not replace him w/another guy is borderline criminal.

I like our Edge guys and secondary, especially our corners. I don't think our LBers are very good other than JOK. I don't think any of them are very good in stopping the run and that is an issue because I don't like our DTs. That's a weak unit.

We are going to be weak at QB for at least the first 11 games. JB is a quality backup, but I think he has shown to be a poor starter. I think our OL and scheme can help him, but he isn't going to win us games. I don't think he will be worse than our 3 QBs were last year, but I doubt he will be better.

I think a realistic win total is between 8 and 10 games, w/8 and 9 being more likely than 10. I don't think we will be as awful as some are claiming, but it's disappointing because I think we would have been a legitimate Super Bowl contender w/Watson playing the full season. Now, I see no chance of that happening.

Assuming our injury situation is better than last year, I still think we should do better. We can argue healthy JB vs hurt Baker until the cows come home, but the Oline is so much more important than either of those guys, and we should be healthier this year than we were last year. Getting Conklin fully healthy sooner rather than later is key, and then continued health of the Oline should help this offense much more than the difference between 2 underperforming QBs.

Defense should come out of the gate hot (vs getting torched like last year), and key contributors aren't rookies anymore. Defense has no excuse.

You could make the argument that, at this point last year, the beginning of our season was tougher than it is this year. Chicago and Texans games were predictably easy opponents, but Minnesota started last season really strong, and we also had Chargers and Chiefs.

So long as our injury situation doesn't go like it did last year, I think we should win more games than last year.

That's actually 7-10, not that either gets us to the playoffs.

I'm thinking "what can 'brown' do for me... In other words, how would we "brown it up" in typical fashion.

How 'bout Brissett and Dobbs lead us to 7-4. Browns fans would be through the moon! Then Watson comes back rusty, we loose a couple in terrible fashion, loose a couple close ones, he finishes 1-5 to give us a 8-9 record. That seems about how it would work out with the most insult to injury... and that's our specialty.

I tend to agree.

7-10 seems about right.

4-7 with Brissett and 3-3 to close out the season with Watson. I could see a 3-1 start, followed by 1-6 over the next 7 games.

It's a bummer that it's quite likely another season wasted with some of the best players in their prime. Additionally, Hunt and Johnson are likely gone next year. Clowney and Conklin will be a free agents.

Hope I'm wrong and it turns out to be a fun season.

Bone, I understand how difficult trying to make a prediction before the season ever starts is. That's why it's more in fun than serious. I mean I'm sure some people actually think they know, but let's face it, there will be things that are unknown and out of our control no matter what. None of us have seen Brissett play with all of our starters against all of another teams starters. So you're in the same position as the rest of us. I'm certainly not trying to push you into making a prediction. It's just been an annual exercise we've all pretty much participated in since I can recall here on the board. As you can see by my initial post, it's all about perception. I have no idea how the season will play out. I just posted the things that are going through my mind, questions I have and what I think the most likely scenario might be. But hey man, suit yourself. I was really interested in your thought process going into the season and what you hoped you would see.

Brisset will go 3-4
Dobbs will go 1-3
Watson will go 3-3
for a 7-10 season

My bad 7-10

Sounds reasonable.

Though if you switch the records of Brissett and Dobbs, that wouldn't be hard to fathom either (Brissett 1-3 / Dobbs 3-4).

And I realize Dobbs would have the tougher schedule.

Nothing ever seems to go "as planned" with the Browns.

10-7, in Chubb I trust.

If the Browns should go 5-12 or 6-11, that would give Stefanski a .500 record in 3-years or worst. People can make up all the excuses they want but the Browns have had playoff contender personal every year Stefanski has been the coach. Unlike the general team movement of keeping players based on possible potential, coaches are not normally given the option of having potential. If Stefanski's career record at Cleveland drops below .500 and concludes with 2 of 3 years posting a losing record - JMO, he will be in big trouble. I just don't believe that Stefanski will be the Browns Head Coach going into 2023 if he posts a losing record after 3 years.

I don't believe the Browns win a single game in the AFC North unless one of the teams suffer significant injuries. After the first 4 games, I suspect the Browns will lose the next 10 games. This includes Houston because Watson's timing will be so off after sitting so long that he will be totally ineffective. I think they can beat NOS and WAS in games 15 and 16 but finish with a loss to PIT. That would mean the Browns would have to go 4-0 to start the season which is possible but not probable. I expect wins against the NYJ and ATL with a possibility of beating CAR leaving them with 5 wins for the year if they can beat the Panthers. I think the weak WR group will be exposed as will the ineffective DT's early and often. People will want to blame it all on Brissett, but a QB is only as good as his supporting cast which in this case is a very poor WR group and a way over valued TE that forces the Browns to attempt to run the ball against 8 in the box - a week by week look the Browns will be facing, JMO. Opposing teams will run at will against the Browns due to their weak DT group.

10-7 for 2022 and contend for a wild card spot.

I choose to be optimistic about my team. 10-7. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will bully their way through the schedule

10-7

JB plays just good enough to get us to 6-5 before Watson comes back. DW goes 4-2.

Chubb, Hunt, DJ, and even Ford carry this team all season.

Cooper, Njoku just move the chains enough.

OL stays healthy proves how good they.

MG, Clowney get 30 sacks combined

York has quite a few game winners

This made me think back to something Jason Lloyd wrote in his article the other day...

Finally, I keep going back to this stat I dug up late last season after the loss at Green Bay: Over the last four years, teams that run the ball for at least 8 yards per carry are 12-12. Teams that average at least 12 yards per pass over that same time are 32-1. So no matter how incredible Chubb might be, dominating a game by running the ball assures you nothing anymore. Teams have to throw it effectively to win.

I'm confused.

A quick google search is showing me that no NFL quarterback has gone over 9 yard/attempt in the past couple years. Tops last year was Joe Burrow, which is kinda funny within the context of this conversation because he has yet to beat the Browns.

Ok. Off the cliff I go.

Hell nobody is going to take my home when I am wrong.

I am going to start on defense because right now I feel that is the strength of the team.

We are going into the third year and I think we have for the most part the players to execute what Woods wants to do.

We are not going to play a standard FS and SS. We will mix and match on down and distance. Harrison will play more in run support as a nickle.
Delpit and JJ will be primary. Delpit will be a surprise. IMO he is a very good player who had to recover from a achilles. He will help in getting critical turnovers.

We are really deep at corner. Ward will be our key boundary corner against number ones. Newsome has the potential to be one of the best corners in football. The Browns will move him into to the slot to play hard press physical man. Emerson has shown he can play and he will. Green is another guy that will play in packages. I think we may trade Greedy.

I like the linebackers because I believe JOK will be one of the best defensive players in football and be an all pro for years. Phillips has speed and shows burst. He is ready to have a good year. Taki is a damn good run defender. Walker is a smart player not great but savvy. As a unit I like them because they fit the scheme the requires coverage by the backers.

My primary concern is DT. I think Bryan and Elliott will good enough. I am hoping Elliott is a new and and improved version. Togiai and Winfrey scare me.

Winovich will play the Tak role. I know what Myles and Clowney can do. I am hoping Wright will develop over the season.

We are going to get more turnovers and it will help.
==============================================================================

We improved on Special Teams. It is sad we lost Jakeem. But we will at least be much improved kicking field goals. That really hurt us and now I am hoping it will really help us.
++++++++++++=+++++++++=+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

We have depth on the OL that we have not had. So if we get injuries on the OL we are better prepared to handle them. The OL is a force in the run game.

IMO we have the best running backs bar none. We will use them heavily especially with JB at qb.

Cooper is a big add and will be a security blanket for JB. He will get a lot of targets. DPJ is a solid number two. Bell is going to play and play well. He IMO will be reliable. I have no idea what Schwartz will do. But I do believe that Njoku and Bryant will play key roles especially on third downs. Felton and Hunt are going to get receptions and figure into a wide passing attack. I can see both used in the slot. We will use screens and motion to stop defenses from jamming the box.

I expect Jacoby to be efficient and not turn it over. He is not the guy to take over games and win alone. But he is good enough to win with.
When Watson returns I don't expect miracles but he is a really good quarterback. It will not take long for him to knock the rust off. Dobbs is fine as a backup and there maybe some packages for him when he comes in situations.

I see the Browns winning 10 or 11 games.

I assume it is yards per completion not per attempt.

So I went and looked up yard/completion. This stat makes a little more sense in that there are QBs who have achieved 12+.

But the list is hardly a who's who of QBs. Tops last year was Garrapolo. Burrow is up there. It's difficult because the top of the list is mostly backups who came in for a game or 2 and lit it up. 2021 Hoyer the Destroyer messed up the scale of the graph I was looking at. You know who else is up there? 2021 Baker Mayfield with 11.9. Mahomes, Rodgers, and Herbert were in the low 11's.

Point being, I don't know if Lloyd's little stat factoid holds up.

Thanks Bone. The object of this thread has never been for everyone to agree. It's been about how they see it from their perspective. You expressed yourself well.

I like yours! I will go a shade further and say 11-6. We possibly won't have as many injuries/COVID. We should be able to run it.
I think we can win on a FG now. Our edgies are tough. If we can avoid throwing to Schwartzzz, we can win. I believe this D can also score and put up some sacks and picks. Playoff slot, even if a WC.

The thing is I have seen next to nothing on Jacoby.

I can read his stats but they are from a different time and place.

If he can be average and not turn it over we should be ok. A slight advantage is the first four games are not murderers row.

Perhaps he can get comfortable and settle into his role.

7 & 10 but of course I hope we do much better than that.

The reference is to single games. It doesn't seem unfathomable to me that we could find eight times per season (32-1 over four years) that a QB averaged over 12 per attempt. I still think it's a silly way to compare things with arbitrary numbers. More often than not, numbers like that for a QB would indicate at least a couple back-breaking plays. It would also usually indicate something like 12-17 for about 200... meaning they probably had a balanced attack and a formidable run game in the contest as well.

More of a "fun with numbers" exercise than anything else...

The first 4 games will be a barometer on the season for us IMO. I don't think we'll do any better than 2-2 but if we can somehow win at least 3 or all 4 (hard to fathom) we may end up having a better year than most of us think.

ThanK you. This fan base screams and cries way too much. Not one game has been played and as low as 2 wins?!? I predict we will win some and lose some. It’s not like my life is any different either way. It’s a game I’m not gambling on.

For the past 4 years, the Browns have been penciled
In as a playoff team. But as the case, this franchise has failed
To be a contender more often than not.
Every year we read the same "this is our year, it has too much
Talent to finish with only 6 wins" etc etc
Has this team really improved enough to be a playoff team?
Alot of teams on the Browns schedule has made upgrades

Is Brissett a upgrade over Mayfield?
The WR room may be better than last years
But I have seen nothing from DPJ or Schwartz so far that
Screams TD makers or playmakers.
I don't see any difference makers at the DTs
The LBers are meh other than JOK.

I just don't see enough that makes this a playoff roster
Yeah the Browns can run the ball
How did that work for the Titans last year?

It takes more than not turning the ball over to win a game with a @uarterback. If Jacoby Brissett stands well in the pocket,
doesn't turn the ball over, and distributes the ball to the eligible receivers effectively,
and the Browns still have no better than a 3 and out, or a single first down followed by a punt, on 4 out of 5 drives.
Then that is almost as bad as a bunch of turnovers, and the Browns will lose on game day(s). (Analytics)

if we don’t go 2-2 or better in the first 4 we’re in for a LONG year

Agreed. But except for 3 or 4 aren't we used to LONG years?

The Browns won eight games last year with a injured quarterback who played poorly.

They lost 2 games that they flat gave away.

I think they can do better with Jacoby and Watson. They have a better defense and kicking game.

History and "oh the Browns this and that" means nothing.

Every year is different. This is 2022.

Someone who predicts winning six can be just as wrong as someone predicting eleven.

I would rather see the glass half full before a game is played than half empty.

Don't let them get you down. The thread is supposed to be fun. None of us know the future. Hell, I would have never believed you if you told me we were going to have a losing record last year. In the end, our predictions mean nothing. This should just be fun.

The Browns of course can reach the playoffs.
But alot has to go in their favor. I just don't see alot of room
For error.
I think Stefanski is going to have to do the best coaching
Job of his life.he is going to have to figure out how
To get at least 25 points per game out of the offense
Woods needs to create schemes to force more turnovers
Return game needs to give Brissett short fields
And Brissett will have to play above his head in order
To really give this team a chance

Bone, I agree with your reasoning and the explanation you posted...

I will add a bit more...it's time for the this Browns organization to backup their beliefs and plans concerning how they have operated over the last 6 years.

Ownership, management, coaching and support staffs are about to be tested in this 2022 season...and if the folks I named are "as advertised"...it should transfer to the field and this franchise should be able to win 10 games and challenge for a playoff spot.

@Carolina - LOSS
NY Jets - WIN
Pittsburgh - LOSS
@Atlanta - WIN
LA Chargers - LOSS
NE Patriots - LOSS
@Baltimore - LOSS
Cincinnati - LOSS
@Miami - WIN
@Buffalo - LOSS
Tampa - LOSS (3-8 w/ Briskett)
@Houston - WIN
@Cincinnati - LOSS
Baltimore - LOSS
NO Saints - WIN
@Washington - WIN
@Pittsburgh - LOSS (3-3 w/ Watson)

6-11 overall.

11-5

Bravo Swish.

I love optimism.

we got a squad i dunno why people are this down on the team. i get the watson nonsense is a drain but let's not act like this is a roster full of bums just because we have a backup QB the first 11 games.

It's a 17 game season Swish

12-5

The optimist adds 1 to the W, the pessimist adds 1 to the L.

Love it.

Swish, what kind of odds can I get on the under 12 games? I'd take a big chunk of that action. Seriously, I just want to see how optimistic you really are. I agree it's possible, but not probable with a backup QB for eleven games. And if winning football games was based solely on the talent a team has, we should have been killing in the last 3-4 years like clockwork, but some how reality keeps getting in our way.

I don't think he's foolish enough to put odds on an unlikely dream.

It's nice to be optimistic. I hate to be negative although I am at times. I'd like to think of myself as a realist and what I see right now with my beloved Browns does not equate to a 10–11-win season. I could be wrong and hope I am. We'll start to see how things are in 6 days.

I certainly understand optimism. And I certainly don't object to people looking at things that way. Often times it gets labeled as being a "Homer" and people often see that phrase in a negative light. I actually don't. There's nothing wrong with people searching for every possible positive thing about their team while blissfully ignoring the obvious questions and negatives. At one point in time I looked at it much the same way. But over the decades, at least from my experience, all it seemed to do was set me up for disappointment.

Brissett has started in the NFL before. For me there's nothing there that would lead me to conclude he can lead a team in the AFC North to 10 wins or more. Sure I know people are saying "Yeah but he was starting for different teams". That's true. But that isn't going to change his skill set or arm strength. And the Browns opponents know that. For all of the things the Browns can use with Brissett, every team they will be playing is fully aware of what Brissett can and can not do. It's not some great secret they won't be ready for.

Being a realist isn't always a bed of roses. But I look at it this way. If I look at things from a realistic standpoint I'm never disappointed if the results play out as expected. While if I'm wrong I'm always pleasantly surprised. It just seems to work better for me than the other way around. But to each their own.

We can tell by your posts.

Great comeback response. Where do you ever come up with such witty banter?

The bad ju-ju the Browns seem to be soaking in this off season could either lead to a team in a funk all season or a team that quietly puts together a decent season while no one is looking. Much rides on the defense. Also, Brissett could game-manage himself into a pretty good spot by the time Watson comes back. I could see them being 6-5 on defense and possession football alone. I wouldn’t be surprised if Watson also ends up near .500. He’s bound to be rusty and every defensive player wants Watson for his trophy wall. Everyone besides browns fans wants him to fail spectacularly and lots of players are going to be extra juiced to knock the tar out of him. It would not surprise me one bit if he actually looks worse than Brissett and people are questioning.

All that aside, we have what looks to me to be one of the easiest schedules in recent years. One reason I like Stefanski is he’s super steady, super professional and just not terribly emotional. I think that helps a team when they’ve had as much self induced chaos as we’ve had this year. If the team settles down quickly and stays focused, the bad ju-ju can dissipate and if they can get to 2-1 in the first 3 games, I could see this team in the wildcard conversation at the end. I’m still very ambivalent about this team right now and I’m not going out of my way to watch them but I know there’s a lot of good players besides Watson. It just depends on how they show up.

9-8

I feel 11-12 wins.

I don't like being a fan of a team and think negative thoughts about them. Especially by not judging by watching a preseason !

I want to be a fan and believe the team I root for can be good to very good !

I don't look back at the past, only now.

And right now I hope for 11-12 wins.

As of now the Browns are 0-0. Nothing to be negative about.

You do realize you're a fan of the Cleveland Browns, right?? One of, if not the, worst run professional sports franchises ever.

Right??

Beginning of the season polls:

https://www.dawgtalkers.net/ubbthreads.php/topics/1967254#Post1967254

If that is your true belief why bother?

No offense really. But if you dislike everything about the team and feel they will suck. Why trouble yourself?

Lots of things out there to spend time on. If the hot iron burns don't touch it.

Don't come at me like I'm an idiot !

That [censored] doesn't fly with me !

I go to games and support this team and most importantly don't attack another Browns fan !

As I see your posting that you're not happy with a worse franchise ever.

your posting on this board why ?

Because you realize what ? and like what ?

You have an opinion on the team and organization and that's all cool...

asking me if I realize if I'm a fan is NOT !!

A bed of roses.. OUCH !!!

Roses have way too many thorns for my butt to be laying on ! LOL !

Nice thread by the way !

CBS has us at 6-11 for this coming season. ESPN has the under on 8.5 wins.

I am sad to say that I think this will be the case.

The same idiots who said the Browns were winning the SB in 2021

The media is a joke ...Don't fall for BS !!!

They know more or less than you or I.

Just making a lil money of their nonsense !!

The Media is the devil ! Why do you let the devil in ?

Maybe change your sig.

Some of us will be right with our predictions and some will be wrong. We start to get an idea next Sunday.

Maybe I'm outta line saying this, but I kinda got the feeling that we're putting predictions out there based on an incomplete or poor understanding of what Brissett is going to bring to the table. I'm going to try to look into it and see what I can see.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrisJa00.htm
JB was a backup in NE in 2016. 2017, he was the starter for Indy. IIRC, this was because Luck retired like 5 minutes before week1 that season. His stats for that year are
276 completions for a hair over 3k yards @ just under 60% comp%
13TD : 7int and took 52 sacks (!) for a 81.7 rating

Does that jive with the idea that JB has maybe less arm talent but takes less sacks and has less turnovers than BM? I'm not sure if you are thinking JB is better or worse than people imagine?

With the running game as good as it is - I don't think JB will have the game on his shoulders, very much game management and executing a deep throw once the D has been set up to bite on play action.

Sonnofa biscuit!

Cursor got itchy and I hit submit too early. Went to edit and it timed out, so I lost a long post. I'll try again.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrisJa00.htm
JB was a backup in NE in 2016. 2017, he was the starter for Indy. IIRC, this was because Luck retired like 5 minutes before week1 that season. His stats for that year are
276 completions for a hair over 3k yards @ just under 60% comp%
13TD : 7int and took 52 sacks (!) for a 81.7 rating

IMO, this points to his line. It was rated 25th in the league, and the story was that Luck (who again, had just retired) was banged up from having nobody blocking for him and nobody catching for him. His RB was Frank Gore, who was 12th in the NFL for total yards.

He apparently lost the starting gig in 2018, but got it back in 2019, which seems odd.

In 2019, his total attempts went down, as did his total yards (just under 3k). His completion percentage did bump up just above 60%, though. He threw 5 more TDs and 1 less pick, but took almost half the amount of sacks. His Oline was ranked 3rd that year, and his RB was Marlon Mack who was 11th in the league in total yards.


So what does that mean?
IMO...

JB will take care of the ball. So long as the Oline does its thing, he won't take a ton of sacks. He does a good job of not throwing picks regardless if he's running for his life or not. He's not going to be slinging the ball around throwing a ton of TDs, though.
His stats are an easy comparison to injured-Baker. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MayfBa00.htm

Similar enough yardage, similar TDs. Less picks and should have way less sacks. He's credited with 2 comebacks and 3 GW drives. Baker is 6 and 7, accordingly.

JB isn't going to win us games, but he's not going to lose them either. We should be ok with him in there, unless we start chucking the ball all over the field, for whatever reason.

Luck was injured for all of 2017 (Shoulder), and return for 2018 before retiring

Informative post.

Just a couple corrections:

On September 2, 2017, Brissett was traded to the Indianapolis Colts for wide receiver Phillip Dorsett; the Colts had needed another quarterback after Andrew Luck suffered an injury. On September 10, 2017, Brissett made his debut with the Colts, relieving starting quarterback Scott Tolzien in the fourth quarter, and completed 2-of-3 passes for 51 yards as the Colts lost to the Los Angeles Rams 46–9. The following week, he earned his first start with the Colts and threw for 216 yards against the Arizona Cardinals. After a 13–13 tie in regulation, Brissett threw an interception to Tyrann Mathieu in the first play of overtime, leading to an Arizona Cardinals 16–13 victory.

Brissett was set to be the Colts' backup quarterback heading into the 2019 season. However, on August 24, 2019, two weeks before the start of the 2019 regular season, Andrew Luck abruptly announced his retirement. Colts general manager Chris Ballard confirmed in a subsequent press conference that Brissett would be the full-time starting quarterback going into the season. On September 2, 2019, Brissett signed a two-year, $30 million contract with the Colts, with $20 million guaranteed, a contract he again negotiated himself because he doesn't "like people to BS on his behalf." He was previously in the final year of his rookie contract and was set to make $2 million for the season.

Quoting oober: In 2019, his total attempts went down, as did his total yards (just under 3k). His completion percentage did bump up just above 60%, though. He threw 5 more TDs and 1 less pick, but took almost half the amount of sacks. His Oline was ranked 3rd that year, and his RB was Marlon Mack who was 11th in the league in total yards.

In 2017, Brissett took over a 2016 Colts team that was 8-8 and led them to a 4-12 record in 2017.

In 2019, Brissett took over a 2018 Colts team that was 10-6 and fresh off a 1-1 playoff record and led them to a 7-9 record in 2019.

To be looking at the correct numbers for Brissett:

2016 (2 starts)_______34/55__61.8% ____0 TD's 0 INT's___3 Fumbles__ 1 lost ____ 6 sacks__46 yards lost
2017 (15 Starts)____276/469_ 58.8%____13 TD's 7 INT's___8 Fumbles___3 lost____52 sacks_305 yards lost
2018 ( 0 Starts)
2019 (15 Starts)____272/447_60.8%____18 TD's 6 INT's___7 Fumbles___5 lost_____27 sacks_159 yards lost
2020 ( 0 starts)
2021 ( 5 starts)____141/225_ 62.7%_____5 TD's 4 INT's___6 Fumbles___3 lost_____19 sacks__32 yards lost

Just to correct some false statements being thrown about on this forum:

Brissett for his career (37 starts) has been sacked 106 times for 657 yards lost which is an 8.1% sack rate.
Mayfield for his career (59 starts) has been sacked 134 times for 889 yards lost which is an 6.5% sack rate.
Brissett taking less sacks than Mayfield is a lie.

Brissett for his career (37 starts) has thrown 36 TD's on 1208 attempts for a TD rate of 3.0%.
Mayfield for his career (59 starts) has thrown 92 TD's on 1924 attempts for a TD rate of 4.8%.
Similarity in passing TD's is a lie.

Brissett for his career (37 starts) has fumbled the ball 24 times losing 12. When based on pass attempts (1208), that's a 2.0% fumble rate with a 1.0% lost rate.
Mayfield for his career (59 starts) has fumbled the ball 27 times losing 12. When based on pass attempts (1924), that's a 1.4% fumble rate with a .6 lost rate.
Brissett taking care of the ball in regards to fumbles is a lie.

Brissett has thrown 17 INT's in his career starts. That's an INT rate based on attempts of 1.4%.
Mayfield has thrown 56 INT's in his career starts. That's an INT rate based on attempts of 2.9%.
This statement is true that Brissett will take better care of the ball when throwing. History shows there would be 1.5% less INT's for 1.8% less passing TD's with Brissett at the helm.

Other areas of note:
Brissett completion pct.: 727/1208 60.2%
Mayfield completion pct.: 1185/1924 61.6%

Starting Record Regular season:
Brissett 14-23 .378
Mayfield 29-30 .492

Career QB Rating:
Brissett 83.0
Mayfield 87.8

Easy there, Turbo.

This is a 2022 prediction thread. I'm trying to figure out what we should expect from JB this year. My comparison to BM was simply because he was the QB last year. I specifically said I was comparing to "injured-Baker" (as in last year). I'm doing that to try to sorta highlight differences to estimate what we're going to get from him. To be transparent, my overall expectation is that we do at least as well as we did last year... and to be clear, I think that will have more to do with the health of the Oline and how our WR room shakes out vs how Jacoby does. I'm not comparing Baker the QB to Jacoby the QB. Baker is much much better and his career #s, as you pointed out, can prove that.

That said, I do think JB should be fine operating this offense so long as he doesn't have to shoulder too much of the load. If he can make easy completions and hit on just enough shots downfield to keep defenses honest, then our offense should be fine.

Similarly, comparing a season with Luck starting vs a season with Jacoby starting is silly. Luck is/was (obviously) the better QB.


I also got my Luck timeline mixed up, so thank you for pointing that out.

Sorry if there was a misunderstanding. I didn't want it to be a focus on Mayfield either. However, when post after post dictates that Brissett won't take the sacks or that he takes care of the ball better, that is simply not the truth. Unfortunately, if the comparison is going to be made then you have to take off the rose-colored glasses and look at what Brissett is bringing to the table based on the only thing we can and that's his past history. Example, to say that he's in better shape due to our o-line when he played 2 seasons behind the #3 Indy line is a stretch at best. I too have a question about our o-line because we are at a 3rd level center after last year, Conklin is a freaking huge question and Wills PFF rating and performance (according to Vers chart) has been at the replace or backup level since entering the league. That is not the top o-line in the NFL even with the best guard tandem in the NFL. So, the questions I have are much like yours. If our o-line slips with the questions at WR, can Brissett carry this team? If everything is perfect, maybe. With the questions that need to be answered, very questionable.

It never ends...

Define "bother" or "trouble" myself. If by that you mean religiously watch every game, hang on every off-season move, immerse myself in the draft and attend as many games in person as possible (all things I used to do) - then nah, I don't bother or trouble myself anymore. I still casually watch on Sundays because they'll always be my hometown team and I sign into the forum to eat my popcorn and watch the drama/trainwreck unfold. Some day I hope they luck/stumble into actually winning like a blind squirrel, but I also live in reality where literal DECADES of data says it isn't happening.

To me the Browns are like trashy reality TV. You make fun of it, and most of the time it's awful, but you still watch because it can be entertaining.

Be honest, there's nothing left to do BUT point and laugh at this dumpster fire of a franchise. The alternative is so disheartening as to verge on being unhealthy.

Oh - and to make my post fit in with the rest of the board - Baker Mayfield sucks (and I'm glad he's gone) AND Dashaun Watson is a sex-crazed perv and I wish he weren't part of the team. Now I'm official.

I am 100% wearing rose-colored glasses. I'll fess up to that. :-p

I never actually saw him play, so all I can do is look at his stat line. His int totals for each season are low and consistent. That tells me he doesn't carelessly throw the football. His sack totals were outta control, and then much better.

He's not going to cause a QB controversy, that's for sure. I think as long as we don't need him to do too much, he'll be fine.

I guess you bath in the whole factory of sadness thing.

Each to their own. Personally I can not look at any sports in that manner.

I focus on what can I cheer for.

I don't think they suck. And I think trading for DW was a the right move given all factors.

Who really knows!!!!!!
This team can go anywhere from 4-13 to 11-5 and possibly outside of either parameter.

I understand everyone's perspective as mine seems to change daily. There are so many questions and the only answer is WIN.
Win & all will be well. Lose and the complaining becomes justified.

As the season gets closer, I do find myself getting a bit more optimistic.

We will need great seasons from our OL, RB's and the entire D. Turnovers as always will be huge on both sides of the ball.

KS needs to be better overall and more consistent in the 4th quarters of games.

Calling for 9-8 probably just miss out on playoffs.
The QB situation is unfortunate as this team could be top tier with a proven presence at that position.

Go Browns!!!!!!!

The great equalizer is injuries.

Last year injuries killed the Ravens. No help to us either. Maybe an entirely different year with Baker healthy.

Injuries are part of the NFL. It takes 53 players. Depth is critical. You lose key players for extended time. You are hurting.

All the predictions are based upon starters not backups. When in reality many backups end up starting.

The whole deal surrounding favorites. I don't pay much attention to. Games are very close. A play here or there. A kick made or not.

Every year some players improve and others decline. FA and the draft and new blood.

Everybody is a fortune teller when in fact crystal balls are fake glass.

Well Jimmah isn't the brightest light bulb in the box and does believe he knows something about NFL football. So of course it gets blown up. You know, because he's a GENIUS. LOL

On the win/loss issue, I can easily see the Browns winning 7-8 games and finishing in the basement of the division. Just have to hope that the major pieces don't get hurt and Watson sharpens up with his 6 games as the team prepares to make a run in 2023.

Nobody knows. That's what makes this a fun exercise we have indulged in ever since 1999.

And potentially a very serious health issue.

Ah ha and that would be true

jc

I don't see us winning more that 7-8 games. The D is the strength and I don't have the faith in our Offense on the field and on the sidelines having the ability to pull off the wins. I also see several key players not being here next season and us going back to the Factory of Sadness. JMHO

Put Dobbs in!!!!!!!

Hopefully our players have more faith and fight than some of us here. I’d hate to go to war with some of you people. You’d be waving the white flag of surrender when the first shot is fired

4-13 or 5-12 I have no confidence we beat the good teams, Maybe not all of the bad teams.... ALL of our QB's stink DT is an issue, WR stink, playcalling sucks, and some think we in the playoffs?

Who goes to war dismantling their weapons as they march toward the fight? (The Browns)
If this team wins 7 games, it will be impressive.

More likely they may go 3-8 in the first eleven
and I-5 in the last 6.
It could easily be 0-6 in the last 6, especially if the NFL extends the suspension.

The first eleven? I don't know how they get to 5-6 if they lose the opener.
They are likely to lose the opener.
If that puts them at 4-7, then 3-8 is just one slip up away.

Even if 4-7 they wouldn't have a 'real' shot at a playoff berth, "this" year. Even if Watson, plays, excels, and excites.
So,
If they are 3-8(ish) when Watson becomes eligible, how much ummpfh is going to be exerted in a known failed cause?
Therefore,
If Watson gets hurt in his first game back, or any number of other scenarios' the Browns team could likely mail it in on a lot of the end of the year, and then I-5 or 0-6 in the final 6 becomes not far fetched.

4-I3, or 3-I4 with a whole lot of talk about how next year with a 'full year of Watson" things will be different.

Next Year, things will be different, we've been hearing that for about a half a century now.
Meanwhile

Many teams keep their team together, and are not in a constant state of re-build.

Here's the thing.even if the Browns luckily back into
The playoffs, they will be one and done
In a wild card showdown. This is not a Super Bowl caliber roster.

I really believe we may only have 3 or 4 wins after our first 11 games. I've had 55 years of experience with this team. Until they can prove otherwise it's hard to change my attitude. The track record is long. Just being a realist. For the record, I hope I'm wrong.

Wild assumptions can go both ways, though. Maybe Dobbs gets behind center and plays at a top ten level? The odds are against it, but it could happen in the NFL.

I agree with many points you made being highly relevant. But you also made many assumptions, with most being outcome critical. I think the odds are we'll have a craptastic season, but even I can't say they have no chance because they do, and I think they'll need more help than they can muster in most games.

None of us know anything until the games begin, even last year's best finishers. This is why we play the games.

j/c

I view us in the 8-10 wins realm. In years past when we’ve sucked, we never had the talent as we do now. Heck, there are very few teams that can say they have the top 1 or two DEs in the game, a very good/solid DE on the other side, someone like JOK at backer, and a top CB in Ward. Lots of potential with other D positions. We have a top 3 RB with excellent backups. A great line, with some talent at TE and Cooper.

We had a decent season last year (and almost playoffs) with a ton of injuries to key areas.


This next part I hope I am clear with my explanation.

A top QB will win you games (obvious i know). Now let’s take the QB out of this statement, talent at key areas will also win you games. Now, it won’t be the same winning chance percentage as having Rogers, Brady etc on your team. Our team showed that last year. So on roster talent alone possible winning chance will be pretty solid. As long as Brissett manages a game average to above we will be in games. Two things will affect this
outside of coaching and a few other reasons: injuries can kill ANY team’s season and how the ball bounces. What I mean by how the ball bounces, you hear the stat every year with some random team….team ___ lost 4 games by a combined total of 6 points. One play here or there and the game would’ve been a win. Need an example if that isn’t clear? Raiders game a few years ago and the bad ball spotting we got.

So I see a ton of positives with this team (and for the next few seasons).

Now I contradict myself, lol. While I am expecting this to happen, I am a game to game person. I won’t get overly excited or upset through the season. Really, this is because of the position at my job, but speaking specifically for our Browns, I’m numb (ugh) to the losing for the past 20+ years. I also have watched football long enough to know you can go 5-0 to start a season and not make the playoffs. Same can be said going 0-5 and making it. The beauty is you can win any game, the terrible part is you can also lose any game, lol. The way to raise your odds is a talented deep roster and/or a top QB.

At this point in time, well at least we have a talented roster. Hopefully they will gel quickly and play as a team playing for each other instead of for themselves. That’s our key for about 3/4ths of this season.

Enjoy the season all! I’m looking forward to it!

*Remember, we all are rooting for the same team no matter each other’s views..we all have at least ONE memory that we all share together no matter each other’s ages or generation. It could be, a Kardiac Kids moment, or a Bernie moment, or Metcalf returning a punt against Pitt, or hell….couch throwing the Hail Mary TD to win the game. Heck maybe it’s even one of the tailgate parties I have heard throughout the years that Saint puts together. One way or another we all have a connection. Let’s try to gel as a board too (yes, I am aware that’s cheesy but am I wrong?)

Go Browns!

Late to the party:

3-14