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Posted By: Versatile Dog Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 12:31 AM
This game is tough to talk about because of the animosity between some of us posters regarding Baker. Hopefully, we can keep the subject matter about football instead of board personalities.

By the numbers:

Carolina is a 2.5 point favorite.

ESPN gives the Browns a 62.5% chance of winning this game.

The last total I saw was 41.5.

The Panthers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games.

The Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.

Key Stats:

Transferring stats from one year to another is risky business, but there are a couple that I find interesting.

On defense, last year the Browns were:

5th in yards per game.
5th in passing yds per game.
12th in rushing yds per game.

On defense, last year the Panthers were:

2nd in yds per game.
4th in passing yards per game.
18th in rushing yds per game.

I think those tendencies could go a long way in how both teams game plan. To add on to that, McCaffrey is healthy right now, Cleveland's DTs look weak, and JC Horn, a dynamic 2nd year corner out of S. Carolina was injured almost all of last year.

Conclusion: I think both teams are going to try and establish the run early on and really try hard to stay ahead of the chains. Avoiding penalties will be paramount for both teams.

When Carolina has the ball:


Panthers

--They will try to get McCaffrey involved as much as possible. Both as a runner and a receiver.

--Their OL was terrible last year, but they worked hard to upgrade it including spending the #6 pick on the best LT in the draft and bringing in ex-Brown Austin Corbett from the Rams. It remains to be seen how this unit will perform.

--They will try to work their WRs outside of the hashes and try more than a couple of deep shots in favorable down and distance situations.

Browns

--I would use JOK to shadow McCaffrey on a significant number of plays.

--I would try to pressure Baker w/blitzes. He was near the bottom of the league last year against the blitz.

--Roll coverage to DJ Moore because Carolina is lacking a decent TE.

--Disguise coverages. Give him one look pre-snap and another post-snap.

When the Browns have the ball:



Browns

--Establish the run w/dominant OL and RBs.

--Utilize quick passing game. Don't take sacks and stay ahead of the chains.

--Target TEs and backs on passing routes. Quick outs to Cooper. Use DPJ to keep defense honest on deep fly routes.

Panthers

--Stack LOS and trust secondary to cover receivers w/out rolling coverages.

--Utilize run blitzes.

--Pressure Brissett hard and try to rattle him early.

Why each team will win:

Panthers

They can win if they get up early and Baker gets hot. McCaffrey dominates game as a runner and receiver. They really slow down Brown's running game and make Brissett beat them. They must protect Baker.


Browns

They can win if they run the ball effectively and mix-in quick passing game. They will need to at least not allow McCaffrey to go crazy. Pressure Baker early and often. Get him off his game and he will take sacks. Keep game close and make it come down to Baker playing at a high level in the fourth quarter.
Posted By: lampdogg Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 01:09 AM
You enjoyed typing that last sentence, didn’t you? smile

Good breakdown, I’ll say what I’ve been saying every pre-game discussion the past couple seasons: just keep running the damn ball, and pass it enough (effectively) to keep their D honest.
Posted By: Pdawg Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 01:43 AM
Great breakdown. I think McCaffery will be the key. If he has a big game then chances for a Browns win go down dramatically. If the Browns can keep him in check I believe they win the game.
Posted By: THROW LONG Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 01:48 AM
One Key is stopping, / probably stopping Baker, one thing I've noticed in the past is when Baker leaves the pocket, he rarely leaves it for the middle of the field, ... he may take the one step- step up toward the middle and still intend to make a throw, but if he's going to give up, ... if he's given up on the pass and intends to run he runs to on the outside, and he runs and gets to the sticks often, more than on occasion. So if you are intending to stop Baker, one thing is to remember his run gains, are on the edges primarily.

One key to victory may be if Chubb and Hunt run Angry enough.
And if the Browns defense could actually get a touchdown, not even a play set up on the one, because... the offense could always screw that up. But if the defense could actually score 6 in the end zone by somebody, anybody on the defense,
that would be a plus. It'd go a long way to help what one may expect to be a very very overmatched offense esp. passing.

I think those numbers about the panthers, can all be dismissed.
The, not covering the spread, the defensive stats, ... 0-7 against the spread,
Carolina 2nd in yards per game, 4th in passing yards per game. as a defense.
I think you can totally throw that out because I think Sam Darnold was way worse than Baker Mayfield will be as their @uarterback.

Carolina 0-7 ats, because if we think in general Sam Darnold just doesn't get the job done, so he wouldn't have been. so that can be thrown out.
Carolina 2nd in yds per game. .. If Darnold was awful, then Carolina's opponents didn't have to do much, and didn't have to do much in yards, because if they could win with a little, they probably would and then run it instead of pass it too.

Carolinas defense 4th in passing yards per game.
Same reason, if Carolina didn't pass for much, then their opponents didn't have to pass for much, and after they took a lead could run it and hold the leads. So I think you can throw both of those stats out.

I think one stat that is often overlooked,
Is how the effectiveness of your own teams offense, to sustain drives and score, so much helps the same teams defense
and therefore the inability to do so, soo hurts the same teams defense

because ya keep putting the defense back out there, and keep putting the defense back out there, and even if they get stops and turnovers, if your offense can't do anything with it. It's self destructive.

An offense that knows what the heck they're doing, can be a defenses best friend.

So as always, a key to winning is the Browns offense playing really well. Good luck with that.
Posted By: DeisleDawg Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 01:53 AM
Nice thread Vers !

Could this be more of who has the better Special Team ?

Lots of talk about the QB's the O's and D's about this game.

Just wondering about the ST's part of the game.
Posted By: THROW LONG Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 02:04 AM
Originally Posted by Pdawg
Great breakdown. I think McCaffery will be the key. If he has a big game then chances for a Browns win go down dramatically. If the Browns can keep him in check I believe they win the game.
What are the chances of Nick Chubb having 60+ yards receiving, and near I40 total yards and a touchdown combined in this game? He did in the playoff win.
I think a real key to the game is which teams DTs will show up

Carolina has a couple unproven DTs much like the Browns.. They just cut a high potential draft pick
Daylon Nixon from last year. They also just signed Henry Anderson at DE
Brian Burns is no joke. He will test Jedrick Wills.
No one is talking about Jack Conklin. He still is iffy for Sunday. That is huge if he can't go.
The Browns had issues In pass blocking last year

The Panthers added D'onta Foreman at RB.he might get a decent share of touches
If the Panthers are gashing the front 7.McClafferty is the straw that stirs that offense
But Ruhle might steal a page from the Browns and go run heavy with Foreman giving CMC a breather
Posted By: THROW LONG Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 02:20 AM
You would put JOK to shadow McCaffrey on a significant number of plays.

I would put Taki Taki on McCaffrey on a couple of plays, as Bait. wink
Then Blitz Taki Taki at/after the snap, and Jam Somebody in there for the interception. ( I thought he was open, Taki can't cover the pass.)
Posted By: OldColdDawg Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 03:40 AM
I believe Cincinnati Baker is coming and he will beat us like a red-headed stepchild. But for the Browns to win, I think they have to dominate the LOS on both sides of the ball, shut down the panther's run game, and put it all on Baker's shoulders. then pressure him like crazy. I don't think it will work, but that's what they need to do. If Baker gets hot, the run game isn't going to save us. You can't give him any time to think or adjust, stay in his face the whole game. MG and company are the only ones who can save this game IMHO.
Originally Posted by DeisleDawg
Nice thread Vers !

Could this be more of who has the better Special Team ?

Lots of talk about the QB's the O's and D's about this game.

Just wondering about the ST's part of the game.

Special Teams are always important, bro. Most of us are high on York and it seems like our punter will be better than the Scottish Shanker. I worry about our punt returner. Hard to say about the coverage teams at this point. Carolina lost Zane Gonzalez in the last preseason game. I don't know anything about their punter. I would say field position might be a bit more important than usual in this game due to what I think both teams will want to do offensively.
Posted By: bonefish Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 11:31 AM
I looked at a bunch of team stats yesterday that ranked units OL, DL, etc.

The Browns were way ahead in most categories.

The OL of the Panthers not very good. Rookie LT #6th pick.

Baker knows Myles is coming. My guess is Myles will come from the left. Baker will roll right (his normal move). Take half the field away from him and shut down the right boundary.

I agree disguise the secondary with post snap movement.

McCaffrey is their big weapon. Woods must look at his tape and their favorite plays for him. My guess is for the Browns to use 4-3 on early downs with Harrison in run support from a SS position. On second and third downs use Delpit and JOK in coverage with Walker in the middle. Newsome in the slot with Ward and Greedy. I expect us to use nickle and dime on passing downs.

Jacoby has to get the ball out. He is not going to be expected to hang in the pocket with long developing plays.

We will run. And make heavy use of TE's and Hunt in the passing game. Emphasis on a horizontal attack wide spread offense with screens. The WZ OL will feature Chubb with cut back lanes.

The defense is about pass rush pressure on Baker with different coverages in the secondary.

The offense is play action run with movement and multiple plays off the same looks.

I like the match-up and believe we finally win an opener.
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 12:47 PM
Good synopsis. I think we could see a lot of jumping passing lanes like the chargers did a few years ago. Take away that first read and make him feel some heat.

I’m more worried about our offense being able to score 20 points
Posted By: FloridaFan Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 03:55 PM
My only issue with that is it sometimes seems like KS goes to the game planning meeting and says, " What's the plan?", they give him the details and he replies "OK, so that's probably what they expect us to do, so run something else." naughtydevil nanner
If we're to have any hope, at all, we have to hope that Preseason QB play doesn't directly translate to early regular season play.

Brisset was horrible, Baker was not. Brisset threw zero TD's and one INT, Baker threw two TD's and zero INT's.

In a nutshell... for the Browns to win, those two sets of stats have to be reversed.
Their passing D is every bit as good as ours, and was statistically better than us last year.
Even if they're weaker against the run, Stefanski has shown in the past against teams like the Chargers that he won't go run-heavy just because the opponent is bad against the run. Even if the run is working, we'll stay balanced - for better or for worse. Given that, QB play *WILL* be a factor, and whichever Pass D of the two very evenly matched Pass D's that is most able to capitalize on mistakes will likely be the difference.
On the flip side, we've all seen highlights of Carolina just chewing up other teams in the past with CMC... they are not afraid to run the Hell out of it if it is working. Our DT situation WILL be tested. I think they'll respect our ability to set the edges with guys like Clowney out there.

If neither O is able to move the ball well enough to put up 7's, however, then York is going to be the MVP.
Posted By: oobernoober Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 04:05 PM
I say we keep it boring on O for as long as we can (use our whole stable of RBs). If that's the whole game, then go us.

I would hope we can get pressure on Baker w/o blitzing. Sit back with good coverage and let Myles and Clowney go to work, maybe blitz folks on obvious passing downs. IMO, we need to key on CM (JOK and Harrison can really earn their game checks here). That's the guy that can make for a long day for us.
Posted By: PitDAWG Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/06/22 04:19 PM
I don't think the Panthers are fooled into thinking they can stop a combination of Myles and Clowney. I look for them to use much the same O strategy I see people recommending for the Browns. The running game, mainly up the middle and the short passing game. They will do that in an effort to back off the blitz to make the Browns pay for blitzing. If they can do that effectively it will open up the ability for Baker to take some shots downfield. How well the Panthers OL will play is somewhat of a mystery. But I certainly agree that expecting their rookie LT to stop Myles is a pipe dream. But I think they know that and will provide him with some help in that department.

I also think they realize that Brissett has his limitations and as such will focus on the Browns running game while using single coverage on the Browns WR's. I know that Cooper is still a good WR, but as I have shown his stats have gone down over the past few years and last year they went down drastically over his 2020 season. He was relegated to the Dallas #2 WR position in 2021.

So as it pertains to what we will see form both teams I think they will be near mirror images of each other. The only real difference is that if the Panthers can use the short passing game to loosen up the Browns D we will most likely see more shots taken downfield by the Panthers.

The special teams as was mentioned may very well end up being the key factor in a close fought game. I think the Browns have a very big advantage in the kicking portion of special teams and have no idea who has the advantage in the return game.
Here is a link that is a preview of the game from a Panther's site.

https://www.panthers.com/news/panthers-browns-week-1-game-preview-matchup-series-connections-stats
Posted By: bonefish Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/07/22 03:01 PM
Interesting numbers.

What I find comical is when "analysts" start talking about all things philosophical. Baker's shoulder chip.

Players motivation. "So and so wants this one real bad" etc. etc.

Coaches and players are on one sheet. Execute the play. Do your job on that play. Leave bad plays behind. You can ony control what you do on the next snap.

The NFL fandom and the coverage is off the charts. Reporters all running around for the anything to report. I totally understand Belichick's total dismissive behavior towards the dumb questions asked.

The Panthers do not have the players the Browns have. They just do not. Baker passed the Panther physical July 7th. And people act like he is going to somehow become a savior to a limited team.

The Browns 53 against the Panthers 53.

I will take the Browns.
Posted By: The Beast Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/07/22 03:36 PM
Well, in Columbus, the key to the game will be to get to your local pub early since the Bengals will be shoved down our throats all season. This game is all the media has been talking about since Mayfield got traded to Carolina. How is it NOT on in Columbus? SMH
Originally Posted by The Beast
Well, in Columbus, the key to the game will be to get to your local pub early since the Bengals will be shoved down our throats all season. This game is all the media has been talking about since Mayfield got traded to Carolina. How is it NOT on in Columbus? SMH

If Cincy was not playing Pitt then I think we would be on here in Columbus. I'm in the same boat.
Posted By: cfrs15 Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/07/22 05:40 PM
Let the Panthers get receivers wide open and then their QB will throw it to the covered guy.
Posted By: PitDAWG Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/07/22 06:31 PM
Originally Posted by bonefish
And people act like he is going to somehow become a savior to a limited team.

I don't think that is accurate. I do however believe many think Baker is capable of leading Carolina to a victory over a team led by Brissett at QB. That doesn't take a savior. It would only take above average performance for one game by Baker. Nothing savior like.

For the most part we agree. If you break the roster of both teams down, the Browns are clearly better in many phases of the game. On paper the Browns should be the clear winner. So I don't think we're far apart on this.
Stefanski was addressing a question about how important it was that Baker knew a lot about our team. He kinda downplayed it, but it has to be a concern for the Browns. He can give them a lot of tendencies on certain down and distances. That should help the Panthers on both sides of the ball.

On the other hand, we know Baker, too. I suspect we will try very hard to keep him in the pocket because Baker has stunk from the pocket. We will try to pressure him early in the game because he tends to fold when facing pressure early in games. Can't let him get on a roll because he does much, much better once he gets into a rhythm. Disguise coverages because he is slow to recognize coverages. Keep the game close because his 4th quarter numbers are at the very bottom of the league.

It will be interesting to see which side prevails in this battle of "knowing the opponent."
Posted By: lampdogg Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/07/22 11:28 PM
Garrett and Clowney have shown “tendencies” to disrupt the plans of OCs, and maul QBs while doing so. So, we have that going for us.

Limit McCaffrey and keep Baker in the pocket. I have no idea how we might do both at the same time.

I did like your idea the other day of using JOK as a spy on CM. Not all the time because that can be exploited if over-utilized, but JOK has explosive athleticism and tackling skills that would be suited to that role.
Originally Posted by lampdogg
Garrett and Clowney have shown “tendencies” to disrupt the plans of OCs, and maul QBs while doing so. So, we have that going for us.

It depends upon whether the Garrett & Clowney we get is the pair that destroyed the Bears or got walked all over by the Chargers. It could go either way.
Posted By: lampdogg Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/08/22 12:56 AM
The only thing I remember about the Charger game is being stiffed by the refs on the PI call on us, when we had a two-score lead and the PI shoulda been on the chargers
Posted By: lampdogg Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/08/22 12:59 AM
We have great players in the secondary, a difference-maker in JOK and DEs that can run over a qb
Good points, lamp.

In my last post, I spent more time on how we could exploit Baker's weaknesses and I believe those things have a good chance of happening. I do have to say this.......they need to disrupt Baker early. His best games occur when he gets rolling early and gets in a groove. His confidence soars and he gets very streaky. We saw it against the Bengals a few times in the last couple of years.
j/c:

If there is any team that knows Baker's strengths and weaknesses best, it's the Browns. Apply pressure to Baker early and often, try to force him to his secondary and tertiary reads, and get him into his own head to unnecessarily create turnovers and inaccurate throws.

I expect to see a lot of Chubb and Hunt (maybe some Johnson sprinkled in) with short yardage throws w/ high YAC potential. I think Njoku will see a bevy of targets and we'll see how that equates to overall efficiency.

Apparently, the weather might be a concern although it is too early to tell at this point. If so, that reliance on the running game and short/intermediate passes may become more amplified.
Speaking of the weather, the Browns might be receiving a break. It's extremely hot and humid in the Carolinas this time of year. We've had a ton of days in a row in the 90s w/high humidity. I was worried how the weather might adversely affect the Browns. However, while Earl is quite a ways off the coast, it's affecting the weather in the Carolinas. The latest forecast is for a high of 79 degrees w/a 69% chance of light rain showers. The winds are predicted to be around 7 mph. Good football weather and we don't have to worry about the Browns be adversely affected by the heat and humidity.
Posted By: PitDAWG Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/08/22 03:30 PM
Unless their HC is a moron, he knows the Browns will try to pressure Baker early. I look for that to be countered by a short, quick passing games on the part of the Panthers and some straight up the gut runs. I think it's going to be quite the chess match.
Posted By: lampdogg Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/08/22 05:57 PM
I also think we need to cut down on the penalties. It was a problem at times in the pre/season, and even in 2021
Posted By: FATE Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/08/22 07:39 PM
I think the biggest key, or deciding factor, is which Baker Mayfield shows up.

Our RB1 seems to agree:





rofl
Posted By: mac Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/08/22 08:47 PM
The Panthers defense will crowd the line of scrimmage to stop the Browns running game and challenge Brissett to complete throws down the field to force the Panthers defense to back off the LOS.

If Brissett can't compete passes down the field the Browns play action game will most likely be less effective.

If the Browns offensive line can dominate the LOS and create running lanes..it would take pressure off of the Browns passing game. If Brissett connects on passes down the field, the Browns offense should roll...go Browns..! nanner
Posted By: hitt Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/08/22 10:07 PM
Keys to Browns win, Garrett MUST dominate rookie LT of Panthers. If you can't get to Baker, read his eyes and bat down passes. Control McC with JOK, you called it- spy him nearly continuously. On O- JB stays true to form- no turnovers, throws smart passes....we run and run some more. ST- our rookie kickers smokes them in rain.....just win baby- long time since opening....Go Browns!!!
Posted By: bonefish Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/08/22 10:13 PM
There are a few matchups that I believe maybe a problem for the Panthers.

Myles against Ikem Ekwonu in his first NFL start.

The wide zone blocking scheme used by the Browns.

The run after catch of Hunt and Felton.

The secondary use of deep zone coverage against Baker. The Browns have many options with JJ, Delpit, Ward, Harrison, Newsome, Greedy, Emerson and Green. We can suffocate and frustrate a passer like Baker.

Bitonio and Teller are two of the highest ranking guards in the NFL especially in run blocking. Might be a problem for the Panthers with who runs behind them.

All the bs talk about emotions and revenge I think many forget about the football aspect of the game.

McCaffery has played in 10 games the last two years. Will he be on a snap count? How much has he practiced? He is coming off injury.

"Lode the box against the Browns." I am not so sure defenses do that all that much. The reasons are clear. You become very susceptible to other forms of attack. Just like you do when you blitz a lot. Linebackers and SS are not known for covering TE's and backs.

IMO not many tv personalities are really looking under the covers of this game.
Solid post.

I mentioned blitzing in my first post. Here is a little tidbit. I was watching NFL Live this afternoon and they were talking about Lamar Jackson and his contract. Mostly, things were positive, but the host said that he did struggle against the blitz last year. She said the only QBs ranked lower against the blitz than Lamar were the rookies and Baker Mayfield. There are some qbs like Mahomes that you dare not blitz, there are others that you do blitz. I think we can blitz him a few times w/one of our DBs when we are in Quarters.
Posted By: Pdawg Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/08/22 10:47 PM
He probably learned in Indy because his first year there he played behind the OL that was so bad that the great Andrew Luck retired early because he was beat to hell and back. It's a shame about Luck. Truly.

I think the Colts OL got a lot better in JB's second year there. And I bet there was a large discrepancy between the sacks he took between the first year he played most of the season and the second year he played most of season. I think Luck played the year in between. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. Sometimes it might be wise to look beyond the raw numbers that folks trot out as gospel.
Posted By: DeisleDawg Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/08/22 11:58 PM
Myles on a rookie LT being able to tear up a rookie

Hopefully Clowney on the right side getting in as Baker is rolling right.. due to the breakdown on the left side

And JOK just ripping it up ! because he isn't letting Baker know which way he's coming.
Posted By: Bard Dawg Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/09/22 12:34 PM
I really expect to see a variety of screen passes. Not sure we get there to disrupt it; McCaffrey would be a natural IMO.
Posted By: mac Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/09/22 01:28 PM
Preparation...will the Browns coaching staff have their players prepared...

I'm more concerned about the Browns defense being prepared, especially in the defensive backfield.

IMO, the Browns defensive backfield must avoid blown assignments due to confusion concerning pass coverage can make the difference between a win..or a loss. It might be a good idea for our defensive coaches to keep the Browns pass coverage as simple as possible to avoid coverage mistakes.

Posted By: Rishuz Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/09/22 01:35 PM
Do you think Depo will have the team ready to go?
rofl
Posted By: FATE Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/09/22 03:05 PM
[Linked Image from c.tenor.com]
Posted By: dawglover05 Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/09/22 03:36 PM
Call it a hunch, but I feel like we're going to play Myles a fair amount at LDE.
Posted By: dawglover05 Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/09/22 03:43 PM
To answer the purpose of the thread, I think we need to contain the pocket on defense. Don't let Baker roll out, which we know he likes to do. I imagine that they're going to use a fair amount of play-action, like we did, to help him roll out and see the field. Keep him in the pocket, get our hands up, and watch McCaffrey coming out of the backfield. If we blitz, do it from the defensive left side and make Baker roll to his left, if he rolls anywhere. Get to him early and often.
I could be wrong, but I think we can exploit Baker. I admit he can get hot and play well, but he's played far more poor games than good. I was thinking about this earlier today, but I wonder how many teams focused on Baker when they were game planning against us? Was he the point of emphasis on who they had to stop? I doubt it. I bet they were far more concerned w/our running game. I think they feared our OL and RBs far more than Baker. In fact, I bet they wanted to force Baker to beat them. I am certain they figured out that keeping him in the pocket and getting pressure on him would make him a liability, not an asset.

Thus, I think our focus should be on stopping McCaffrey. Dude is a great player when healthy. He's productive in so many ways. I look at Baker and think "how can we exploit him" rather than "we better develop a game plan to slow him down because we fear him."

He might have a great game, but I don't think the Browns fear him.
Posted By: PitDAWG Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/09/22 06:16 PM
He was the sixth most accurate long ball passer in the NFL during his last season healthy, 2020. I'm sure NFL HC's around the league ignored that.
Posted By: dawglover05 Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/09/22 08:12 PM
I don't think we disagree, really. I should have started my post under the premise of what we should do with Baker, not how we should game plan for the entire Panthers offense. The one thing I will say about Baker is when he's on, he's really on (Bengals 2020)...and when he's off, he's really off. Kind of like that Chubb quote I saw somewhere on this board - I just don't know what to expect with him.
I wasn't arguing w/you bro or critiquing your post. I was just spitballing because it was something I had been thinking about in the last day or so.
I have to say, the media, who bashed Baker for a couple years now, are talking about him like he is a top five QB. He can play good, but he can be rattled easy. If Clowney and Myles keep getting close to him, I think he will do what he always does, force throws. I was watching a show and they were showing him throwing into small windows. Every throw was incomplete. Not because of his throw, but because he was throwing into double and triple coverage. They were talking about him "ripping it". But still, every highlight was an incomplete pass. I don't for one second think our defense fears him. I think they know that if he gets hit over and over, his mechanics go out the window. We all here should know that, since we watch it happen for four years. People always claim an Oline needs to gel to be good, Carolina has a retooled Oline and a rookie LT, are they somehow not in need of time to gel?

The key to this game is McCaffery. Dude is a game changer. He opens up the offense for them. If he is allowed to run free, it could be a long day. That being said, the speed of JOK and Phillips can help neutralize him. Our safeties are good, and there is some speed there too. We have corners that can play man to man, leaving a safety to help with run support. Clowney is also good against the run. If they are going to beat us, it is going to have to be Baker throwing, and IMO, thats not a sure thing.

I keep hearing how they are going to load the box, I think we will too. We have the backend to pull this off. If we disguise coverages, and blitz a safety now and then, Baker will force things the way he always has. We haven't seen our whole defense on the field yet this year, I think it is going to be special. I look for multiple sacks and at least one INT.

IMO, people are underselling Brissett. No I don't mean I think he is real good, but I don't think he is as bad as many make him out to be. He is a smart player, and has a lot of experience. This might also be the best team he has played on talent wise. I think he will be able to manage the offense enough to be effective. I see Hunt as being his safety valve, and having a huge day. Ball control will be the key, along with no turnovers.

I believe the Browns will dominate this game. I just got a feeling.My biggest concern for this game, is the return game. I don't think we got a good returner on the roster.
Posted By: FATE Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/10/22 01:15 AM
Good stuff, Steub.

I think a lot of fans are under-selling Brissett. Same disclaimer, he's not real good. Can he be effective with this talent? Decent chance. I think because we went from Baker, to Watson, to Brissett, a lot of folks look at mediocrity and call it trash.
Posted By: THROW LONG Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/10/22 03:15 AM
Originally Posted by FATE
I think because we went from Baker, to Watson, to Brissett, a lot of folks look at mediocrity and call it trash.
In the NFL ...
Posted By: bonefish Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/10/22 11:47 AM
Good take.

That is the way I have been looking at this game. The Browns have to keep track of McCaffery on all plays. He will make plays but we have to stop him from going crazy.

I like this match-up for the Browns. We have match-ups that they will have big trouble with.

Pressure is a problem for most quarterbacks and Baker in particular. He flushes from the pocket and rolls right. That allows the defense to shut off half the field. Take the right boundary out with Ward. Delpit can jump routes. Their left tackle rookie is in for heap big trouble.

We only need for Jacoby to be efficient. He can do that. And I do believe people are underestimating him.

We have many more top notch players than the Panthers.
Posted By: bonefish Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/10/22 01:03 PM
This is just a sidebar.

My favorite NFL football show is NFL Match-up with Greg Cosell and Sal Paolantonio.

It is on espn but it is recorded at weird times.

For those who like X's and O's it is really good. Great film detail and explanations. I learn more from that show than any other show.

It has been on for a long time and I never miss it.
Cosell is really good.
Posted By: bonefish Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/10/22 02:01 PM
I listen to his podcasts.

I have learned so much from the guy over the years. He really explains concepts in detail.

I don't think there is anyone who studies more film than him. It is an obsession of his.

He makes everything understandable and the film breakdown is excellent.

I always check his draft shows. Every year he picks stars before they are drafted.

Match-up gives you real detail on what to look for in the games they cover on the show.
You know if Baker was still the Browns QB, and Brissett was the Panthers QB
People would be posting how much of a bum Jacoby is.
But because he is a Brown he is under rated, and better than what is perceived
Posted By: mgh888 Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/10/22 02:22 PM
I'm about 9 miles from the stadium. It's been pouring with rain the last 4+ hours... Good chance for it to rain off and on for the next 24 hours. At the moment it's forecasting a break tomorrow at noon.

It's the sort of rain that gets you soaked thru. Could well be a factor if it's like this during the game.
Posted By: THROW LONG Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/10/22 03:40 PM
Thanks for the info, is it mud or turf, ( I could look it up.)
Posted By: PitDAWG Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/10/22 04:12 PM
Originally Posted by Iluvmyxstripper
You know if Baker was still the Browns QB, and Brissett was the Panthers QB
People would be posting how much of a bum Jacoby is.
But because he is a Brown he is under rated, and better than what is perceived

100%.
Posted By: hitt Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/10/22 09:58 PM
Panthers just switched from grass to artificial grass/ turf. Field should hold up, rain will be issue, if it rains. Go Browns!!!
Posted By: Dawgs4Life Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/10/22 10:02 PM
Is the weather calling for rain?
Updated weather forecast. Doesn't look too bad. I much prefer that weather for the Browns than a day in the mid-90s and a dew point in the 70s.


https://rotogrinders.com/weather/nfl
Quote
The Winning Mix: 3 keys to a victory over the Carolina Panthers


Browns look to open the season with a Week 1 win on the road in Carolina
Sep 10, 2022 at 10:50 AM


We all know that it has been a long time since the Browns opened the regular season with a win, so let's take a look at the path to victory in this important game.

1. Pound the Rock
The Jacoby Brissett era begins this Sunday and nothing helps a quarterback like a dominant ground game. The Browns must unleash Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and pound the Panthers on the ground in what is expected to be inclement weather this Sunday. Two years ago, Chubb and Hunt became just the fourth tandem in NFL history to accumulate 1,200-plus total yards and 12-plus touchdowns in the same season. Last year Chubb was second in the NFL in rushing and Hunt produced 522 total yards and five touchdowns in the first six games of the year. The Browns are significantly bigger up front than the Panthers who start undersized defensive ends in Brian Burns (250) and Yetur Gross-Matos (260) pounds. After all, Carolina was the 4th ranked pass defense last year, but ranked 18th against the run. The Browns should be able to run right at the edges and impose their will, which should create opportunities for big plays in the play action and boot games once the Panthers have to start committing their safeties to the box in an attempt to stop Chubb and Hunt. So feed them the rock 30-plus times and let the Browns unbelievably talented duo run wild on Carolina en route to a punishing victory.







2. Pressure Bursts Pipes!
The Browns generate pressure at one of the highest rates in the NFL, led by Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney, who combined for 25 sacks in 2021. Garrett sits just four sacks shy of setting the Browns franchise record and something tells me he would love to accomplish that feat in Week 1 against the Panthers and a very familiar quarterback. Let's not forget that Myles set the franchise record for sacks in a single game last year against the Chicago Bears with 4.5, so it is not out of the question to get it done on Sunday.

Helping matters for Myles and company is that the Panthers are starting rookie first rounder Ickey Ekwonu at left tackle and LG Brady Christensen will be making his first ever start at that position. With an entirely new left side of the line, look for the Browns to really turn up the heat on the blind side of quarterback Baker Mayfield. When under pressure, Mayfield completed just 41 percent of his passes and became prone to throwing interceptions. In fact, no one has thrown more interceptions than Mayfield's 56 since entering the league in 2018. The Browns generate pressure on 35 percent of the plays in which Garrett and Clowney are on the field together, which is an elite mark. Conversely, no quarterback in the NFL sees more of his pressures result in sacks than Mayfield. The Browns can turn up the heat on Mayfield and generate a bevy of negative plays, which will lead to a dominant performance from a defense that has its sights set on being the best in the NFL in 2022.

3. Fast Start

In a Game One that feels a little bigger than usual, its imperative for the Browns to get off to a fast start. The challenge is real however, as the Panthers were the only team in the NFL that did not allow a single touchdown on an opponent's opening drive in 2021. That being said, the Browns need to find a way to get the early lead either on offense or with say a pick six and force the Panthers to become a drop back passing team on offense. After all, you could say it's a race to 15 points for the Browns and it would be great to be well on the way early in the game. In 2021, the Panthers were 5-0 when holding their opponent under 15 points. They were a shocking 0-12 when the opposition scored 15 or more points, and were the only team in the NFL to be winless in such games. So let's come out of the gate quickly, set the tone for the game and get on the perfect path to victory for a team that is built to dominate on the ground and play great defense with the lead.


https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/news/the-winning-mix-3-keys-to-a-victory-over-the-carolina-panthers
j/c

I haven’t said anything about the keys to the game as they’re pretty straight to the point. Most have already brought them up.

Main one:
Christian McCaffrey - if he’s healthy, he can put up 150-300 total yards himself. Holding him in check can be the difference in a win or loss no matter the talent difference.

WRs - they have a decent to solid group. DJ Moore is a heck of a wr, Robbie Anderson has been a solid receiver for the past 3-5 years. I like Shenault as a backup/third receiver. Pairing them with McCaffrey coming out of the backfield, I think makes them a stronger group as your main focus is Christian and Moore.

Pressure their QB - this is a key no matter the week or team we are playing

Offensively

Run the ball - I’ll be excited in the future when I can change this key to - spread the ball around

Play action / use the screens effectively (also try to get Chief involved in the screen once or twice)

- Get our TEs involved on seam routes, move the chains with David Bell

- get Cooper involved naturally, please don’t force feed him. He’s an excellent route runner, he will get his touches one way or another
Posted By: lampdogg Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/11/22 02:42 AM
Good post.

Run the rock.
Posted By: mgh888 Re: Browns at Panthers: Keys to the Game - 09/11/22 03:07 AM
Originally Posted by THROW LONG
Thanks for the info, is it mud or turf, ( I could look it up.)

Synthetic turf... Last I looked it said 40% chance of rain most of the late morning... Equal chance of thunder and a delay.
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