Well if the 4th down is inside the opponents 20, and it's not near the end of the game,
then just take the 3 points on a 36 or less yards field goal, and don't give the opponents defense any chance on a momentum shifting stop. I'm sure there is an analytic for that.
There also is the rewarding your team with the 3 points for getting the ball to that position of the field in the first place!
I agree, but until our kicker misses, which he hasn't yet this year on a FG or an XP, I would extend that back to the 30.. anything under a 50 yard FG, we need to take the points until such time as our kicker starts to be less reliable. I would draw a distinction though where I would consider going for it on 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 1/2 a yard.. but this going for it on 3rd and 3 or 3rd and 4 when you don't need to has to stop.