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#1705675 - 12/11/19 07:38 PM Playoff Odds
CleVeLaNd_sTrife Offline

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Registered: 09/11/06
Posts: 2008
Here are two sites that allow you to simulate the rest of the season.

538 NFL Playoff Predictor:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/

ESPN Playoff Machine
http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

In any realistic scenario we need to win out and go 9-7.

If we win out we have a 37% chance of making the playoffs.

If we win out and Pit loses to Buffalo and Hou loses to Ten this week we have a 50% chance to make the playoffs.

This week, it is difficult for us to really improve our % chance of making it simply because Buffalo plays Pittsburgh and Tennessee plays Houston.

Whoever loses from those two games, we need to be rooting for them to lose out.

We want OAK and IND to win all their remaining games. Us being tied with them at 9-7 only helps us when it comes to tie-breaking procedures.

The most realistic scenario where we get in I think is as follows.

TEN sweeps HOU.
PIT loses any 2.
CLE wins out.
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#1705683 - 12/11/19 08:38 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: CleVeLaNd_sTrife]
PrplPplEater Offline

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With us winning this week, what all needs to happen to eliminate us?

I see that as far more likely, and deserving.
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... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.


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#1705685 - 12/11/19 08:46 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: CleVeLaNd_sTrife]
jaybird Offline

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No way we beat Baltimore....
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#1705691 - 12/11/19 09:24 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: jaybird]
HotBYoungTurk Offline

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Originally Posted By: jaybird
No way we beat Baltimore....


Anything can happen.. but we're definitely the underdogs.
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#1705693 - 12/11/19 09:34 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: HotBYoungTurk]
jaybird Offline

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Originally Posted By: HotBYoungTurk
Originally Posted By: jaybird
No way we beat Baltimore....


Anything can happen.. but we're definitely the underdogs.


True... but no... would be huge upset...
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#1705709 - 12/11/19 11:19 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: jaybird]
Punchsmack Offline

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Originally Posted By: jaybird
No way we beat Baltimore....


I think the Ravens are going to drop one before the postseason begins. It'll be their "wake-up game".

Plus, Jackson was a bit hurt and didn't practice much this week. There was talk of RG3 playing this week, but they'll play Jackson even though they don't need him to win. Who knows, maybe he does play and gets a bit more banged up for us, keeping him in the pocket more or on the bench (not rooting for him to get hurt, just saying, it could happen).

First things first, run the ball against the Cards and take care of business. I want 9 wins even if we don't get into the playoffs.
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#1705751 - 12/12/19 10:25 AM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: jaybird]
oobernoober Offline

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Originally Posted By: jaybird
No way we beat Baltimore....


Pretty sure we were all saying that prior to the first game.
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#1705783 - 12/12/19 12:24 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: oobernoober]
rastanplan Offline

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Registered: 03/08/13
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Originally Posted By: oobernoober
Originally Posted By: jaybird
No way we beat Baltimore....


Pretty sure we were all saying that prior to the first game.


Team was design to perform in the Division, so I expect a good/close game.

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#1705809 - 12/12/19 03:25 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: CleVeLaNd_sTrife]
Haus Offline

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I'm surprised the chances are as good as they are.. even assuming we win out.

Just eyeballing it, it looks like our conference record would help us in most tie-breaking scenarios.

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#1705813 - 12/12/19 03:34 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: PrplPplEater]
CleVeLaNd_sTrife Offline

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Registered: 09/11/06
Posts: 2008
Originally Posted By: PrplPplEater
With us winning this week, what all needs to happen to eliminate us?

I see that as far more likely, and deserving.


If we win this week we cannot be eliminated from playoff contention.

If we lose this week and Pit wins then we are eliminated.
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#1705828 - 12/12/19 05:29 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: rastanplan]
Dawgs4Life Offline

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Originally Posted By: rastanplan
Originally Posted By: oobernoober
Originally Posted By: jaybird
No way we beat Baltimore....


Pretty sure we were all saying that prior to the first game.


Team was design to perform in the Division, so I expect a good/close game.
i agree ... and we have done well in division. Problem is the Denver, Seattle, LA losses loom too large
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"First down as we threaten again. A score here puts us in the Super Bowl. Odell is far to the left as Landry settles into the slot. Njoku is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Hunt are split in the backfield as Baker takes the snap ... Here we go."

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#1706097 - 12/13/19 10:35 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: CleVeLaNd_sTrife]
lampdogg Offline

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Originally Posted By: CleVeLaNd_sTrife
Originally Posted By: PrplPplEater
With us winning this week, what all needs to happen to eliminate us?

I see that as far more likely, and deserving.


If we win this week we cannot be eliminated from playoff contention.

If we lose this week and Pit wins then we are eliminated.


Cool. We win in Arizona, we still have a shot at er.
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#1706168 - 12/14/19 03:06 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: CleVeLaNd_sTrife]
SuperBrown Offline

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ZERO %


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#1707646 - 12/16/19 02:11 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: CleVeLaNd_sTrife]
GratefulDawg Offline

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Registered: 03/19/07
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Loc: Chautauqua Lake, NY
How do the Browns get in?

1) Win out to go 8-8
2) IND wins 2/3
3) PIT loses 2
4) TEN loses 2

Browns would be IN on conference tie-breaker with Colt.

https://twitter.com/AndrewSiciliano/status/1206652432467419136
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#1707670 - 12/16/19 03:09 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: GratefulDawg]
OldColdDawg Offline

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Registered: 09/28/06
Posts: 19508
Loc: Lancaster, Ohio
Originally Posted By: GratefulDawg
How do the Browns get in?

1) Win out to go 8-8
2) IND wins 2/3
3) PIT loses 2
4) TEN loses 2

Browns would be IN on conference tie-breaker with Colt.

https://twitter.com/AndrewSiciliano/status/1206652432467419136


So all we have to do is beat Baltimore this week and Cinci the following week while asking the universe to realign the stars for us. No problem, book your super bowl tickets today.
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#1707762 - 12/16/19 09:29 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: OldColdDawg]
PDXBrownsFan Offline
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Posts: 3903
Loc: Portland, OR (originally Lakew...
Originally Posted By: OldColdDawg
Originally Posted By: GratefulDawg
How do the Browns get in?

1) Win out to go 8-8
2) IND wins 2/3
3) PIT loses 2
4) TEN loses 2

Browns would be IN on conference tie-breaker with Colt.

https://twitter.com/AndrewSiciliano/status/1206652432467419136


So all we have to do is beat Baltimore this week and Cinci the following week while asking the universe to realign the stars for us. No problem, book your super bowl tickets today.


Strangely, given the state of the AFC...this isn't a total overreach. Indy will lose tonight against NOLA, but then they have two winnable games (CAR and JAX). Titans play NO and HOU, Pitt play NYJ and BALT. We play Balt and Cincy.

We already beat Baltimore once (honestly, I don't think we beat them again, but the 22nd IS in Cleveland). We have to control our game against Baltimore and watch closely the Jets v Pitt game. If we win and Jets win...the final weeks games will be intense.

Watch this space (that said, I think if we miraculously got in I think we would be smoked).

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#1707777 - 12/16/19 10:39 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: CleVeLaNd_sTrife]
GratefulDawg Offline

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Registered: 03/19/07
Posts: 7217
Loc: Chautauqua Lake, NY
W 15- Saints beat Colts
W 16- Browns beat Ravens
Colts beat Panthers
Jets beat Steelers
Saints beat Titans
W 17 - Browns beat Bengals
Ravens beat Steelers
Texans beat Titans
Colts beat Jaguars

Browns win 4 way Tiebreaker. I truly hate myself.

https://twitter.com/Matt_Pisaneschi/status/1206433403266048000
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#1707784 - 12/16/19 10:53 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: GratefulDawg]
PrplPplEater Offline

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Registered: 09/10/06
Posts: 22849
Loc: Cleveland, Ohio
Originally Posted By: GratefulDawg
W 15- Saints beat Colts
W 16- Browns beat Ravens
Colts beat Panthers
Jets beat Steelers
Saints beat Titans
W 17 - Browns beat Bengals
Ravens beat Steelers
Texans beat Titans
Colts beat Jaguars

Browns win 4 way Tiebreaker. I truly hate myself.

https://twitter.com/Matt_Pisaneschi/status/1206433403266048000


The truly insane part of that is that only us beating Baltimore and Jets beating Steelers feel like a reach in any way. The rest almost feel certain.
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Fear us, for we have Hughlett

... there goes Joe Thomas, the best there ever was in this game.


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#1707802 - 12/17/19 05:23 AM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: PrplPplEater]
Dawgs4Life Offline

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Registered: 09/11/06
Posts: 50514
Loc: Edinboro, PA
Lets not forget that Baltimore may be resting week 17 though too
_________________________
"First down as we threaten again. A score here puts us in the Super Bowl. Odell is far to the left as Landry settles into the slot. Njoku is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Hunt are split in the backfield as Baker takes the snap ... Here we go."

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#1707906 - 12/17/19 11:11 AM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: OldColdDawg]
Haus Offline

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Registered: 04/16/07
Posts: 6448
Originally Posted By: OldColdDawg
Originally Posted By: GratefulDawg
How do the Browns get in?

1) Win out to go 8-8
2) IND wins 2/3
3) PIT loses 2
4) TEN loses 2

Browns would be IN on conference tie-breaker with Colt.

https://twitter.com/AndrewSiciliano/status/1206652432467419136


So all we have to do is beat Baltimore this week and Cinci the following week while asking the universe to realign the stars for us. Then win at Kansas City, at Baltimore, and at New England as the most likely AFC path. No problem, book your super bowl tickets today.

Added the bold part.

If that happens, I'll buy us tickets to the Super Bowl and we can watch the game together.

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#1707933 - 12/17/19 12:00 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: Haus]
Clemdawg Offline

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Registered: 09/22/06
Posts: 11771
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This team was built to contend for a SB, but they weren't trained and conditioned to accomplish that goal.

Even if they might somehow limp into the tournament, they are set up beautifully to get curb-stomped and skull drug in the first round.

Until they are coached up to play as a team, they will lose every game they play against quality competition.

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#noguts
#nounity
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#nochance
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#1707941 - 12/17/19 12:08 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: Clemdawg]
Haus Offline

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Registered: 04/16/07
Posts: 6448
Agreed.

This has probably been the toughest season to be a Browns fan, just knowing what the expectations were and what could have been.

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#1707984 - 12/17/19 01:40 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: Haus]
Dawgs4Life Offline

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Registered: 09/11/06
Posts: 50514
Loc: Edinboro, PA
Agreed. Its more painful than the 0-16 team
_________________________
"First down as we threaten again. A score here puts us in the Super Bowl. Odell is far to the left as Landry settles into the slot. Njoku is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Hunt are split in the backfield as Baker takes the snap ... Here we go."

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#1708016 - 12/17/19 03:19 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: CleVeLaNd_sTrife]
SuperBrown Offline

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Loc: Birmingham, Alabama
How can we still be in the playoff hunt when Tenny is 8-6?

If they lose out and we win out, we still lose to them in the tiebreaker, because they already beat us.

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#1708017 - 12/17/19 03:26 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: SuperBrown]
willitevachange Offline
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Registered: 09/07/17
Posts: 8889
Originally Posted By: SuperBrown
How can we still be in the playoff hunt when Tenny is 8-6?

If they lose out and we win out, we still lose to them in the tiebreaker, because they already beat us.
I think it goes to division wins before head to head. we would have a 5-1 division record if we win out.

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#1708018 - 12/17/19 03:28 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: SuperBrown]
FATE Offline

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Registered: 03/02/13
Posts: 2842
Loc: Champion, OH!
Originally Posted By: SuperBrown
How can we still be in the playoff hunt when Tenny is 8-6?

If they lose out and we win out, we still lose to them in the tiebreaker, because they already beat us.

That's why we need the Colts to win out... They would also be 8-8 and would win the division tie-breaker over the Titans (better division record). Tie-breakers within a division are settled first, once each division has only one remaining wild-card eligible team, tie-breakers within the conference apply.
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#1708020 - 12/17/19 03:29 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: Haus]
Clemdawg Offline

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Posts: 11771
Loc: 2 bubbles off of plumb
Originally Posted By: Haus
Agreed.

This has probably been the toughest season to be a Browns fan, just knowing what the expectations were and what could have been.



Maybe that's why I'm only half as torqued about the season as others are: I was calling 8-8 since about Game 3.

Back in Aug, I talked about how much 'new' there was- and tried to remind Dawgs of how 'new' always looks for us here in CLE. I admitted that the prospect of these shiny parts was tantalizing, but still in potential only. I think my quote was:

"They look great on paper, but football is played on grass."

This team needs a lot of work. It's like a pile of newly-minted but unassembled Ferrari parts. Shiny. Pretty. Exciting. Useless.
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#1708021 - 12/17/19 03:29 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: willitevachange]
FATE Offline

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Loc: Champion, OH!
Head-to-head always trumps any other record except as I mentioned above.
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#1708026 - 12/17/19 04:02 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: FATE]
ExclDawg Offline

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Posts: 14209
Originally Posted By: FATE
Head-to-head always trumps any other record except as I mentioned above.



I wouldn't worry about it ....

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#1708068 - 12/17/19 07:21 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: ExclDawg]
SuperBrown Offline

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Registered: 04/02/13
Posts: 3205
Loc: Birmingham, Alabama
Originally Posted By: ExclDawg
Originally Posted By: FATE
Head-to-head always trumps any other record except as I mentioned above.



I wouldn't worry about it ....


I was only asking a question about why we are still in the hunt.

By no means do I think we have a damn chance to get in little fella.........

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#1708344 - 12/18/19 01:55 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: CleVeLaNd_sTrife]
DaveyD Offline

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Registered: 03/12/13
Posts: 420
Just stop. We are not a playoff team and do not deserve to be even in the same sentence as the word playoff, this year.

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#1708359 - 12/18/19 02:17 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: DaveyD]
willitevachange Offline
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Registered: 09/07/17
Posts: 8889
Originally Posted By: DaveyD
Just stop. We are not a playoff team and do not deserve to be even in the same sentence as the word playoff, this year.
Neither does Pittsburgh, yet they sit as of now in the playoffs......coaching means something.

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#1708666 - 12/19/19 10:48 AM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: willitevachange]
Haus Offline

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Registered: 04/16/07
Posts: 6448
Originally Posted By: willitevachange
Originally Posted By: DaveyD
Just stop. We are not a playoff team and do not deserve to be even in the same sentence as the word playoff, this year.
Neither does Pittsburgh, yet they sit as of now in the playoffs......coaching means something.

Yeah, coaching means something, and Tomlin has done a nice job holding an injury-depleted team together. They play with heart and toughness, and have won 8 of their last 11 games. All things I wish I could say about the Browns.

Just saying.. that sounds like a playoff team, though it really just comes down to the final standings. It's not like the college football playoffs, where a lot of it is subjective and the criteria change from year to year to get favored teams in, or teams from a certain conference.

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#1708846 - 12/19/19 05:08 PM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: GratefulDawg]
THROW LONG Offline

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Registered: 12/05/06
Posts: 7584
Originally Posted By: GratefulDawg
How do the Browns get in?

1) Win out to go 8-8
2) IND wins 2/3
3) PIT loses 2
4) TEN loses 2

Browns would be IN on conference tie-breaker with Colts


They pretty much got knocked out of the playoff race, after the 49er loss, another chance thwarted after the Broncos, or Seahawks loss, and for sure after the 2nd Steeler game loss.

Grasping as straws is just that, and I think the Browns fanbase is smart enough to expect to go into the playoffs actually deserving it, not squeezing, or falling, or inching their way into the playoffs on a technicality.

The good news is, there are still 2 AFC north division games out there waiting for the Browns to go and get them!
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#1708904 - 12/20/19 08:38 AM Re: Playoff Odds [Re: CleVeLaNd_sTrife]
Dawgs4Life Offline

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Registered: 09/11/06
Posts: 50514
Loc: Edinboro, PA
Yeah, to me the loss in Denver was a huge nail in the coffin
_________________________
"First down as we threaten again. A score here puts us in the Super Bowl. Odell is far to the left as Landry settles into the slot. Njoku is flanked out wide to the right. Chubb and Hunt are split in the backfield as Baker takes the snap ... Here we go."

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