DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) Are Safeties Worth A Top 5 Pick? (Article)

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftsafeties.php

Atlanta and Kansas City general managers Thomas Dimitroff and Scott Pioli worked together in New England. This March during the NFL Owners' Meeting, the two were discussing the Chiefs' options at No. 5.

Dimitroff brought up Berry in a conversation logged by Peter King.

"Scott, this guy's your pick," Dimitroff said.

Pioli apparently didn't agree. "You know how I feel about safeties that early."

Pioli's not the only one. There has been only one safety chosen with a top-five NFL Draft pick since 1992 (Sean Taylor). The last time a safety was selected in the top three was Eric Turner back in 1991.



Ironically, the two top safeties in recent memory, Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu, weren't even taken in the top 15.

Why is this? Why do safeties fall on Draft Day? Quite simply: The safety position is not really that important. In fact, it's quite insignificant when compared to quarterbacks, left tackles and pass-rushing defensive ends.

Of course, we'll need numbers to back this claim up. Let's take a look at every single safety drafted in the top 15 picks since 1991. I'm going to list whether each player was a hit or bust, as well as the original team's record with each player on the roster.
(Chart did not translate to MB.)

Hits: 2; OK: 4; Busts: 2


No team that drafted a safety in the top 15 since 1991 has won a Super Bowl with that player on its roster. And as you can see, teams that spent top-15 picks on safeties were 242-284 (.460) with that prospect on the roster.

Furthermore, if you exclude the records of Roy Williams and Patrick Bates, who didn't contribute much to their team's success (Williams struggled when the Cowboys went 13-3 in 2007 - thus his bloated record), teams that used top-15 picks on safeties were 160-219 (.422) with that prospect on the roster. And here I thought top-15 picks were supposed to help each team improve.

But wait a second. Eric Berry is obviously going to be better than Donte Whitner and LaRon Landry, correct? We can only speculate, but it's pretty much safe to say that Berry will be a great safety in the NFL. Does that change things?

Well, let's look at the two hits. The (both) late Sean Taylor and Eric Turner were Pro Bowl-caliber safeties. The Redskins and Browns were a combined 62-77 (.446) with them on the roster. Moreover, Taylor and Turner helped their teams reach only two playoff appearances in nine combined seasons in Washington and Cleveland, respectively.

Now, you may exclaim, "It's not Taylor's fault the Redskins were 21-27 with him on the roster; they had tons of other holes!" And that's precisely the point of this article - as good as Taylor was, he just didn't impact the result of Washington's games. The safety position is just not important.

For Kansas City fans who still want their team to select Berry: If you're content with the Chiefs winning 44.6 percent of their games, then by all means, ask Pioli to change his mind about taking safeties that early.

But Eric Berry Is Supposed to Be the Next Ed Reed! I've received a few e-mails about this, so I feel this should be addressed as well. Yes, Berry is being compared to Reed. Two problems with this though:

1. There is no guarantee that Berry will be as good as Reed. Wasn't Glenn Dorsey supposed to be the next Warren Sapp? Wasn't Vernon Gholston supposed to be the next DeMarcus Ware? Wasn't the late Gaines Adams supposed to be the next great pass-rusher? There are no guarantees in the NFL Draft. None. Anyone who believes otherwise is fooling themselves. Any prospect can bust.

2. Let's say Berry is the next Reed. How has Reed done for the Ravens? Well, since he was drafted in 2002, Baltimore is 70-58, which is a winning percentage of 54.7 - equating to something less than a 9-7 average (9-7 is 56.3 percent).

It's worth noting that Reed's record with the Ravens before they added Joe Flacco (i.e. a franchise quarterback) was 50-46 (.521).

In other words, if the Chiefs draft Berry, and Berry actually becomes the Hall of Fame player he's expected to be (which is definitely not a guarantee; see those busts I've mentioned), Kansas City will average anywhere between eight or nine wins with him on the roster.

(end of article)

I really would have liked for the writer to talk more about why and how the safety can be diminished during the game. Perhaps Toad or Peen can get more into the football side of things.

Maybe safeties that get drafted in the first 15 of the draft are going to teams that just aren't that good (why they're picking that high.)

The bust rate can at least be said for other positions. DT is a huge one, yet nobody says we shouldn't take Odrick. A lot of pass-rushing DEs are the same way. Robert Gallery was suposed to be the safest pick in his draft. Remember when we all wanted to trade up for him?

I don't really ge tthe point of that article.

What's the record for ALL players drafted in the first 15 picks of the draft on their teams? I bet that's not very good, either.

Stupid, stupid article. Certainly not dissing on you for posting it, but this is terrible.

Regarding the comment that Reed and Polamolu weren't taken int he top-15 but are the top of their position... Brees (2nd) , Brady (6th), Favre (2nd), and Warner (UDFA) weren't aken in the 1st. Sure... Manning and McNabb were taken 1 and 2 overall, but more of the elite QBs in the league weren't than were.

I understand what you are saying. And I do the same thing. I like to dissect articles too. I guess this was not the point of why I posted this article.

I wanted to use this article as a stepping stone to discuss why safeties do not impact the game the same as other positions. How an O-coordinator can scheme to eliminate a safety from a game... Things like that.

Certain positions like qb, cb and pass rusher are an example where if ya don't get em' early, you may not get a good one. At the other end are guards, rt's, lbers, safeties.
Sure, there are always exceptions, but as said earlier, a team can get a terrific value pick in the third or fourth round for a qb and develop them, but usually that player is no more than a capable backup or spot starter.


The reservation on Berry is that he's undersized. The good news is he likes to hit. The bad news is that because he's undersized, he may not last real long. I'm sure he's a fine, fine player. But had he come out six years ago, he may have gone late first, early second. With safeties being en vogue, he gets a top 10 billing. And frankly the only safeties that have made the top 10 had it all: fast ballhawkers who were 6'+ 220+ and could take your head off.

Also Eli Manning. (oops. drafted by the chargers and traded..nevermind )

As to the question of impact of Safeties? I really don't know.

Reed and Polamalu seem to be play makers to me.

I wish I knew how to answer the question with some accuracy. It seems to me the way the NFL gameplay operates and thrives is either a lot of random chance or incredibly complex.

J/c

I know there is some disagreement, but I stil say a guy like Polamalu makes that defense. If we can get a safety like that, I don't care how high we pick him.

The key is always the "bust" factor, but that's every position.

JMHO

maybe Left Tackle is overrated.. we drafted one of the best ones in the league and we still suck.

Glad you mentioned Saturday,...Talk about underpaid,....

This is the way I see it.. if you are drafting in the top 15, unless you acquired that pick via trade, it probably means you aren't very good and have a fair number of holes. In that instance, drafting a safety might not be THE most important need you have to fill.. I get that.

But an impact safety, followed up with other good solid draft picks for a couple years is every bit as good as a bunch of good solid draft picks with a safety picked at 19... I just don't get it I guess. An impact player is an impact player..

I'm with ya DC. This is just a discussion of "what if" not any type of probabilty factor to me.

However, I think the two 2 DT's will be gone and the top two OT's will be gone.

There will be a ton of possibilities. I think Hayden may still be on the board at #7. You could move Brown out to S by drafting Hayden.

I don't see any LB rated high enough to draft at #7.

I'm not pimping anybody at #7. For all I know we may select Claussen at #7. This is just for grins Bud.



I feel a lot safer in this draft because we have MH and TH in the FO. But you're right, one pick doesn't make a draft. It doesn't make a team either. Not sure where else you may be going with this?

jmho

The article fails to point out that if people knew Troy was going to this good or Ed Reed was going to be this good, they'd take them in the first 10 picks no question.

If you are taking Eric Berry that high, you're assuming he is going to be that special....if he doesn't pan out then you have about the same bust rate as any other position

agreed,...I'm gonna guess that Reed and Palomalu were not rated as high in their drafts as Berry is now.

I would toss out that entire article and simply look at three things:

The Ravens with, and without, Ed Reed.
The Steelers with, and without, Polamalu.
The Colts with, and without, Bob Sanders.

There is a HUGE difference in how all of those defenses play without that premier Safety in the lineup.
Top picks make a tangible difference on gameday.... and to me, the above type of impact is what you look for out of your top picks.
Just because they haven't been drafted that high doesn't mean that they aren't worth it.

The Colts defense wasn't bad at all last year without Bob Sanders (8th in points against).

I get your point, but I'm just saying.

I like Berry as much as the next guy. But I don't think he will make or break our team. This is a really deep draft.

the great QB touches the ball on every offensive play
the great LT allows the line to double team another player
the great DL forces a double team
the great safety is the second guy in coverage i.e. the double teamer not the double teamee

but I believe it's just a coincidence

Cleve i am with you when i failed to get the gist of this article or prove his point: that elite safeties are tied to winning teams. Fist point is if you are taking any player that high( be it safety in the top ten) you are a BAD TEAM in need of upgrades at many positions so one player( a safety) it is true does not make a turn to respectable to pretend that it SHOULD is ABSURD.
So What would Berry an elite safety add to the Browns should we land him? a thumper in the middle. Third down crossing patterns for easy gains would be a thing of the past. A ball hawk in the secondary with great range would help the corners and help Elam look better at the other Safety. Run support would improve as well.
Ok say he helps the Browns to an extra three and out three times in a game where the ball returns to the offense, does that equate to a field goal? What if he stops two crucial runs a game that may have broke open? Is that maybe another field goal? Or intercepts 6 balls for the team over the year? how many points is that?
how badly did the Steelers miss troy Polomalu? The rest of their defense was essentially injury free and yet his loss was large.

I hope Berry is available because it makes the Brown pickup at corner even better and helps the entire deep zone and run support and having a big play ace on defense that has been a chronic toothache since Eric turner left I think makes this position one of need for the Browns and say it is worth a field goal worth in position.

Flip that to WR, say 5 catches a game. how many are big plays? One, maybe? how many points is that worth? especially if the other team finds your safeties so bad that third downs are an easy touch. naw, i will take the safety.

Yes if that player shores up your defence and helps take your team to another level,

Yes if that player can change your defense scheme along with making your oppenet change thiers.

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Flip that to WR, say 5 catches a game. how many are big plays? One, maybe? how many points is that worth? especially if the other team finds your safeties so bad that third downs are

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Wouldn't you say a Larry Fitzgerald/Andre Johnson type receiver impacts the game just as much, and sometimes more, than a big time safety?

Hey I have to agree with you there iF Dez Bryant is one of those two receivers then by all means jump on him fast.