DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2013 NFL Season NFL Draft (2013) NFL Freakonomics

Kind of interesting

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/09000d5d826f73ca/Football-Freakonomics-Draft-Luck

Nothing shocking, the draft is a crap shoot.

Not really news...the perceived "value" of top picks isn't as high as the "value chart" wants to make you believe, but while not a science it's still important you have a good GM....those guys probably didn't tell you that 1st rounders still are much better players than mid rounders....a monkey throwing darts would pick mid/late rounders in the 1st every 2nd throw....this work only shows that among the PROs evaluating it's a close call...it's like saying "on any given sunday" when 2 NFL teams match up

It's not really news that the 1st guy at a position isn't much better than the next guy, or the 10 than the 11th....the most iportant part is that the 1st/2nd guy is regularly better than the 10th/11th...and you have to identify who is in which tier

Also, if anything, this math work goes to show how important it is to find those difference makers...that after 256x 20+ drafts they revisited the math tends to even out shouldn't be shocking for any math guy, it's like saying the combined record for all NFL teams after any given week is .500 ... there are deviations (call em "plus values")...and you have to find those to stay above par...that's teh whole point of a draft and why it is NOT a crapshoot

Quote:

---

It's not really news that the 1st guy at a position isn't much better than the next guy, or the 10 than the 11th....the most iportant part is that the 1st/2nd guy is regularly better than the 10th/11th...

---

This is the key.. There are occassions where the first is head and shoulders better than the second but in most cases, the difference between 1st and 2nd isn't great and the difference between 4th and 5th isn't great but the difference between 1st and 5th is considerable... This analysis also doesn't take into consideration in any way the situation that these players come into... I would strongly disagree with his comments that some teams aren't better at drafting than others...

I'm closer to this line of thinking than I am GM as all knowing guru.

I used to post about the hubris of Savage and his perception that he'd trade up in the draft all the time to get his targeted player.

I'd rather have more swings at the ball and let the draft come to me almost every single time, especially as it pertains the the first three rounds of the draft.

Those who go after the ball constantly and swing for the fences strike out a LOT.
Those who stay patient and wait for their pitch usually have a MUCH higher career batting average.


They may not have as many home runs, but they contribute a hell of a lot more.