Improving defense could make Browns playoff team in 2015 - CBS.Sportsline.com Article - 07/24/15 01:52 PM
We already know most of this article, but it's an offseason piece from a national writer saying we could be good enough for the playoffs. Worth a read in July.
Improving defense could make Browns playoff team in 2015
By Ryan Wilson | CBSSports.com
July 21, 2015 10:35 pm CT
It's easy to forget that the Browns were alone in first place in the AFC North on Nov. 11, 10 weeks into the 2014 NFL season. At the time, they were 6-3 with wins over the Saints, Steelers and Bengals and there was no reason to think that the team would implode over the final seven games other than, you know, they're the Browns.
Of course, that's exactly what happened; Cleveland lost six of seven, including five straight to end the season. When it was over, the sheen had worn off the local-boy-makes-good Brian Hoyer story, and the quarterback wasn't re-signed. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan also left amid reports of friction on the coaching staff. And after a forgettable rookie season, first-round pick Johnny Manziel entered rehab, where he remained for 10 weeks. There was also the matter of a meddling front office, along with continued reports of a power struggle between the coach and general manager.
But despite the annual off-field silliness, the Browns can't be dismissed as a legitimate playoff team next season. This doesn't mean they're the favorites to win the AFC North. In fact, if you're ranking the division, it begins with some combination of the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers in spots 1-3 followed by the Browns. But that's less about the talent gap among the four teams than a) recent history and b) the lack of a proven franchise quarterback on Cleveland's roster.
So while a team without something approaching a franchise quarterback hasn't won a Super Bowl since Brad Johnson and the Buccaneers pulled it off in January 2003, there are plenty of examples of teams lacking a top-10 passer playing in the postseason. And let's be honest: a Browns' playoff appearance -- the first since 2002, by the way -- would be a huge deal in northern Ohio.
So what's the plan? The Browns could take a page from the playbooks of their division rivals -- all of them. In 2004, then-rookie Ben Roethlisberger was forced into the lineup after Tommy Maddox went down with an arm injury in Week 2. That team relied heavily on two things: Pittsburgh's dominant defense and a running game that simplified Big Ben's life. The Steelers went 15-1 and made it to the conference championship. The Ravens did similarly in 2008, Joe Flacco's rookie season, when its second-ranked defense did much of the heavy lifting on the team's way to the playoffs. And you could argue that Andy Dalton has benefitted from some combination of good defenses and explosive playmakers in the Bengals' four consecutive postseason appearances.
In 2014, the Browns had one of the league's youngest defenses (average age: 26.4) but still finished as the No. 11 unit, according to Football Outsiders' metrics. If that group can improve in 2015, coupled with Josh McCown playing at replacement level (basically: something other than the NFL's worst quarterback), the Browns can not only be competitive, they can be in the mix for a playoff spot in late December.
Along the defensive line, Ahtyba Rubin and Jabaal Sheard are gone, as is cornerback Buster Skrine. But 2014 first-round pick Danny Shelton should immediately upgrade the nose tackle position while free-agent signing Tramon Williams can do the same as Skrine's replacement. The Browns used a second-round pick on outside linebacker Nate Orchard, who had 18.5 sacks at Utah last season and will replace Sheard on the depth chart in Cleveland.
Then there are the Browns' other recent selections -- first-round talents who have yet to fully realize expectations. Cornerback Justin Gilbert was taken eighth overall in 2014, but struggled through much of his rookie season. That'll change in 2015, if veteran Pro Bowler Joe Haden, who has been working out with Gilbert, has anything to do with it.
“He is growing up,” Haden said in March. “Justin's a very, very talented player. It's just going to take a little bit of time.”
Gilbert's talent isn't lost on second-year coach Mike Pettine, who also realizes that the transition from college to the NFL is rarely a smooth one.
“We've definitely seen flashes of his ability, and we've seen it in games as well,” Pettine said back in December. “I could make a 20-play cut-up of him where he'd look like one of the elite corners in the league, and I could make another 20-play cut-up where you wouldn't take him until Day 3 of the draft. In this league, it's all about being consistent.”
The point: There's every reason to expect Gilbert to improve from Year 1 to Year 2. The same holds for 2013 first-rounder Barkevious Mingo, the undersized rush linebacker who has been less than 100 percent healthy for much of his NFL career.
“I feel next year will be a good year,” Mingo said in March. “I have the experience under my belt. I know what to expect, and it's the same playbook as last year, so I'll have that as an advantage as well. Now it's just coming down to getting ready to play and putting it on the field.”
But the success of this defense in 2015 doesn't rest solely on the shoulders of these young players. The unit is full of veteran contributors from linebackers Karlos Dansby, Craig Robertson and Paul Kruger, to defensive backs Haden, Williams, Donte Whitner and Tashaun Gipson. Just how good is this group? According to ProFootballFocus' individual ratings, Dansby was ninth among all inside linebackers, Robertson was 18th, and Kruger was 14th among rush linebackers. Among cornerbacks, Haden was 28th and Williams was 34th (with the Packers), while Gipson and Whitner were 10th and 11th, respectively, among safeties.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns have a ton of questions, a conversation that starts at quarterback. McCown was signed this offseason to take the pressure off Manziel, who isn't expected to win the starting job. But there are bright spots, starting with the offensive line (the team used its other first-round pick on center Cameron Erving, who will be groomed as Alex Mack's replacement); a solid running game that features Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West and Duke Johnson, all of whom are 23 or younger; and veteran free-agent wideouts Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline.
So while today's NFL is all about offensive firepower, and only teams with a franchise quarterback have a real chance to win the Super Bowl, the road to the playoffs is less restrictive. In 2009 and 2010, the Jets made back-to-back AFC Championship Game appearances with an erratic Mark Sanchez, a very good running game and a great defenses. We've seen that story -- adequate quarterback coupled with strong running game and defense -- play out in subsequent years with the 2011 49ers (Alex Smith's resurgence under Jim Harbaugh), the 2012 Bengals (Dalton was in his second season and Cincy's D ranked 10th), and the 2013 Chiefs (Alex Smith's resurgence continued in Kansas City, which went from two wins the previous season to the playoffs in '13).
And last season's Bills, a team that leaned heavily on journeyman quarterback Kyle Orton while it waited on EJ Manuel to grow into the job, might be the best example what the Browns could look like in '15. That Bills team finished 9-7 and just outside the playoff chase, and they did it with a below-average offense (26th overall) and a stifling defense (2nd overall).
Of course, the Browns play in a much tougher division than the Bills, and, in general, the organization is perpetually finding ways to sabotage itself. That said, if the owner, front office and coaching staff can find a way to mitigate the self-inflicted wounds (which, honestly might be a tougher propisition than Manziel making the Pro Bowl), it's easy to envision a group that starts the season strong but unlike a year ago, doesn't cave down the stretch. And if they can get to Week 15 at 8-6 or 7-7, then anything's possible -- including the playoffs.
Put another way: Qualifying for the postseason ain't the Mt. Everest of professional sports milestones; Andy Dalton has done it four straight years.
Improving defense could make Browns playoff team in 2015
By Ryan Wilson | CBSSports.com
July 21, 2015 10:35 pm CT
It's easy to forget that the Browns were alone in first place in the AFC North on Nov. 11, 10 weeks into the 2014 NFL season. At the time, they were 6-3 with wins over the Saints, Steelers and Bengals and there was no reason to think that the team would implode over the final seven games other than, you know, they're the Browns.
Of course, that's exactly what happened; Cleveland lost six of seven, including five straight to end the season. When it was over, the sheen had worn off the local-boy-makes-good Brian Hoyer story, and the quarterback wasn't re-signed. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan also left amid reports of friction on the coaching staff. And after a forgettable rookie season, first-round pick Johnny Manziel entered rehab, where he remained for 10 weeks. There was also the matter of a meddling front office, along with continued reports of a power struggle between the coach and general manager.
But despite the annual off-field silliness, the Browns can't be dismissed as a legitimate playoff team next season. This doesn't mean they're the favorites to win the AFC North. In fact, if you're ranking the division, it begins with some combination of the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers in spots 1-3 followed by the Browns. But that's less about the talent gap among the four teams than a) recent history and b) the lack of a proven franchise quarterback on Cleveland's roster.
So while a team without something approaching a franchise quarterback hasn't won a Super Bowl since Brad Johnson and the Buccaneers pulled it off in January 2003, there are plenty of examples of teams lacking a top-10 passer playing in the postseason. And let's be honest: a Browns' playoff appearance -- the first since 2002, by the way -- would be a huge deal in northern Ohio.
So what's the plan? The Browns could take a page from the playbooks of their division rivals -- all of them. In 2004, then-rookie Ben Roethlisberger was forced into the lineup after Tommy Maddox went down with an arm injury in Week 2. That team relied heavily on two things: Pittsburgh's dominant defense and a running game that simplified Big Ben's life. The Steelers went 15-1 and made it to the conference championship. The Ravens did similarly in 2008, Joe Flacco's rookie season, when its second-ranked defense did much of the heavy lifting on the team's way to the playoffs. And you could argue that Andy Dalton has benefitted from some combination of good defenses and explosive playmakers in the Bengals' four consecutive postseason appearances.
In 2014, the Browns had one of the league's youngest defenses (average age: 26.4) but still finished as the No. 11 unit, according to Football Outsiders' metrics. If that group can improve in 2015, coupled with Josh McCown playing at replacement level (basically: something other than the NFL's worst quarterback), the Browns can not only be competitive, they can be in the mix for a playoff spot in late December.
Along the defensive line, Ahtyba Rubin and Jabaal Sheard are gone, as is cornerback Buster Skrine. But 2014 first-round pick Danny Shelton should immediately upgrade the nose tackle position while free-agent signing Tramon Williams can do the same as Skrine's replacement. The Browns used a second-round pick on outside linebacker Nate Orchard, who had 18.5 sacks at Utah last season and will replace Sheard on the depth chart in Cleveland.
Then there are the Browns' other recent selections -- first-round talents who have yet to fully realize expectations. Cornerback Justin Gilbert was taken eighth overall in 2014, but struggled through much of his rookie season. That'll change in 2015, if veteran Pro Bowler Joe Haden, who has been working out with Gilbert, has anything to do with it.
“He is growing up,” Haden said in March. “Justin's a very, very talented player. It's just going to take a little bit of time.”
Gilbert's talent isn't lost on second-year coach Mike Pettine, who also realizes that the transition from college to the NFL is rarely a smooth one.
“We've definitely seen flashes of his ability, and we've seen it in games as well,” Pettine said back in December. “I could make a 20-play cut-up of him where he'd look like one of the elite corners in the league, and I could make another 20-play cut-up where you wouldn't take him until Day 3 of the draft. In this league, it's all about being consistent.”
The point: There's every reason to expect Gilbert to improve from Year 1 to Year 2. The same holds for 2013 first-rounder Barkevious Mingo, the undersized rush linebacker who has been less than 100 percent healthy for much of his NFL career.
“I feel next year will be a good year,” Mingo said in March. “I have the experience under my belt. I know what to expect, and it's the same playbook as last year, so I'll have that as an advantage as well. Now it's just coming down to getting ready to play and putting it on the field.”
But the success of this defense in 2015 doesn't rest solely on the shoulders of these young players. The unit is full of veteran contributors from linebackers Karlos Dansby, Craig Robertson and Paul Kruger, to defensive backs Haden, Williams, Donte Whitner and Tashaun Gipson. Just how good is this group? According to ProFootballFocus' individual ratings, Dansby was ninth among all inside linebackers, Robertson was 18th, and Kruger was 14th among rush linebackers. Among cornerbacks, Haden was 28th and Williams was 34th (with the Packers), while Gipson and Whitner were 10th and 11th, respectively, among safeties.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns have a ton of questions, a conversation that starts at quarterback. McCown was signed this offseason to take the pressure off Manziel, who isn't expected to win the starting job. But there are bright spots, starting with the offensive line (the team used its other first-round pick on center Cameron Erving, who will be groomed as Alex Mack's replacement); a solid running game that features Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West and Duke Johnson, all of whom are 23 or younger; and veteran free-agent wideouts Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline.
So while today's NFL is all about offensive firepower, and only teams with a franchise quarterback have a real chance to win the Super Bowl, the road to the playoffs is less restrictive. In 2009 and 2010, the Jets made back-to-back AFC Championship Game appearances with an erratic Mark Sanchez, a very good running game and a great defenses. We've seen that story -- adequate quarterback coupled with strong running game and defense -- play out in subsequent years with the 2011 49ers (Alex Smith's resurgence under Jim Harbaugh), the 2012 Bengals (Dalton was in his second season and Cincy's D ranked 10th), and the 2013 Chiefs (Alex Smith's resurgence continued in Kansas City, which went from two wins the previous season to the playoffs in '13).
And last season's Bills, a team that leaned heavily on journeyman quarterback Kyle Orton while it waited on EJ Manuel to grow into the job, might be the best example what the Browns could look like in '15. That Bills team finished 9-7 and just outside the playoff chase, and they did it with a below-average offense (26th overall) and a stifling defense (2nd overall).
Of course, the Browns play in a much tougher division than the Bills, and, in general, the organization is perpetually finding ways to sabotage itself. That said, if the owner, front office and coaching staff can find a way to mitigate the self-inflicted wounds (which, honestly might be a tougher propisition than Manziel making the Pro Bowl), it's easy to envision a group that starts the season strong but unlike a year ago, doesn't cave down the stretch. And if they can get to Week 15 at 8-6 or 7-7, then anything's possible -- including the playoffs.
Put another way: Qualifying for the postseason ain't the Mt. Everest of professional sports milestones; Andy Dalton has done it four straight years.