Ranking offensive weapons for all 32 NFL teams in 2020: Barnwell picks the best and worst
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2944...icks-best-worstThe most important thing for an NFL team is to find a franchise quarterback. The second-most important thing might be surrounding that quarterback with weapons. The Ravens went shopping for the likes of Mark Ingram and Marquise Brown last offseason and helped Lamar Jackson emerge as MVP. The Chiefs have been at or near the top of these rankings for each of the past three years, and their weapons helped earn the team a Super Bowl victory and Patrick Mahomes a $500 million contract.
The Browns can tell you that weapons alone aren't enough to guarantee success, but every team wants to have pieces that can win a game with one big play. Let's rank each team's skill-position talent without including the impact of the quarterback, offensive line or scheme. I can't emphasize that caveat enough.
Imagine if every team's running backs, wide receivers and tight ends were dropped onto a new team with an average quarterback, average offensive line and average coaching staff. Which offense would be the most productive after you throw the likes of Deshaun Watson and Kyle Shanahan out the window? A few clarifications:
Contract value doesn't matter. I'm strictly focusing on performance here, so while there are players on this list who might be considered bad values, the only thing that matters is what they do on the field.
Only 2020 matters. Long-term value doesn't matter, so I'm strictly considering how each player is likely to perform in the 2020 season after accounting for their quarterback, line and coaching staff. The NFL can be a mystery, but I'm trying to use aging curves, recent history and the typical value produced by draft picks to estimate performance. I'm also factoring in injuries for players such as Deebo Samuel and injury histories for players such as Will Fuller V when estimating their availability.
Wide receivers matter more than other positions. The league considers wide receivers more valuable than running backs or tight ends. The top 10 multiyear deals for wideouts are worth an average of $17.4 million per season. The top 10 running back deals average $9.3 million per year, while the top 10 tight ends are at $7.8 million per campaign. I don't weigh the value of wide receivers to be quite as significant as those numbers suggest, but a great wideout is worth more than a similarly effective running back or tight end.
Top-level talent is worth more than depth. Since an NFL team will typically run out some combination of five running backs, wide receivers and tight ends on the vast majority of its offensive snaps, I focused on the five most valuable weapons. I handed out a bonus for players who would widely be considered as among the best at their respective positions, including Travis Kelce or Michael Thomas. When two teams were close, I broke ties by considering those teams with more depth at the skill positions, such as the Patriots, Eagles and 49ers.
Not everyone who was considered gets mentioned. While I looked at the entire depth chart in evaluating each team's weapons, listing and writing about every single player in those groups would make this column longer than it already is. If I don't mention someone in a write-up, it's not because they were ignored or not considered.
The Jaguars were in the basement in these rankings last year. They're not 32nd again, although Jacksonville fans won't have to go too much further to find Gardner Minshew's weapons on this list:
2. Cleveland Browns
2019 rank: 3 | 2018 rank: 13
The Browns are back toward the top of these rankings for a second consecutive season. There are fair questions about whether their offense will be effective after a disastrous 2019 campaign, but their weapons aren't the problem. In some places, they're better than they looked a year ago. Free-agent signing Austin Hooper's production was inflated by garbage-time numbers in Atlanta, but he is still a significant upgrade on David Njoku.
Nick Chubb kept up his second-half performance from 2018 over a full season in 2019, and while he needs to be more efficient, the idea of Chubb playing in a Gary Kubiak-style rushing attack under Kevin Stefanski in 2020 is scary for opponents. Kareem Hunt was productive in a limited role after returning from suspension, ranking in the top 15 in both yards per target and yards per route run. Baker Mayfield's numbers improved with Hunt on the field, and Hunt is overqualified for his role as the bottom half of a back rotation.
In what would have been a surprise given what we thought last season, my concern about the Browns is mostly with the wide receivers. Jarvis Landry underwent hip surgery in February, and it's unclear whether he'll be ready to go in training camp. Odell Beckham Jr. played through a hernia in 2019, and there's a good chance he bounces back in 2020. But it's also fair to note that we're now three years removed from the OBJ who was one of the league's best wideouts with the Giants. Beckham averaged 95.9 receiving yards per game over his first three seasons, with that number falling to 74.7 yards over the past three campaigns. If he is the guy from Years 1 to 3, the Browns should be No. 1 here. If Beckham has another season in which he fails to live up to that level of play, we probably need to reevaluate our expectations for one of the league's most talented receivers.