DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Analytics: I Wonder............

That's exactly where I am. Until we see something other than the annual carnival of buffoonery that is the current Cleveland Browns, I'm not buying any of these bells and whistles they're selling.

Yeah.........unfortunately, I have come to feel the same way.

The bad part is this.......and I will tell it to you because you weren't on the board at the time. I really disliked Junior as an owner. I thought he was soft and easily manipulated. I thought he changed directions too many times. I thought he was mentally unstable....and I am not saying that in a mean way, but man, some of the things he did were odd, such as only allowing questions through emails.

I was all-in when Haslam bought the team. He said the right things. The Steeler way....Continuity........Passion.......A great desire to be the best......etc.

I used to --and still do---criticize other posters for blindly following the leader, but I fell prey to the same thing. I wanted us to win so bad that I bought into everything Haslam and his initial hires said and did. I vigorously defended Haslam and everyone he hired. It was all fueled by hope rather than logic and reason. Pretty freaking stupid!

I was wrong about him. He fooled me, but like the Who says: "I won't be fooled again. No, No! I won't be fooled again!"

Yeah.......I agree. Show me.

Deep down..........I am hoping that I am wrong about all of this. LOL.........freaking Browns drive me crazy.

It's an interesting dilemma for me. On one hand I agree with everything you are saying....Haslem is a snake. On the other hand however, I really trust science and mathematics....much more reliable than old fat people sitting around talking about a guy who has "it" when no one can even define what "it" is.

The biggest question I have is will Jimmy trust the process and let the team/science work?? I have my doubts on that one.

Yep

That is a really big question too, because this is going to take time.

There really won't be a ton of analytics going on the first year because they will still be setting up the system.

Perfect. A built in excuse why Browns fans should remain optimistic despite the results on the field.

Hey I could be wrong, but Free agency is two months away and we still don't know what kind of offensive or defensive system we are running. It would be nearly impossible to have a system up an running in that time.

If Jimmy pulls another one year wonder, we might not know what we are missing.

Once again...............I think firing Pet was a big mistake.

I would have been good w/it if the Haslams had Saban lined-up, but to fire him and not already have the guy and then have to choose from a group of unproven guys................sigh.

I am getting down again. That sucks. I need to go back to how I felt earlier today and just laugh at everything this stupid franchise does. It's more fun.

I wanted to keep Pettine too. We could have blown the rest up and kept him and still did all of this analytics stuff.

I'm not a fan of Saban, but not a chance he would leave Alabama where he is a God anyway.

I'm way ahead of you on that. Just because I understand what they're trying to do doesn't mean I'm all onboard and cheerleading here.

I can see the benefits and the goals, but I'm done with the rah-rah crap until they put something worth looking at on the field.... which pretty much means either a football team worth watching, or cheerleaders.

Ddubia,
Thanks for that video. What people do not want to realize is that there is analytical forecasting in every part of our lives, including football. Of course the so-called football experts do not like it because they are afraid it will put them out of business.

Analytics, along with good film study helps with play calling and defending plays also. It really helps in predicting what your opponent might do in certain situations. But as good as all that is, you cannot have your owner going around/not trusting those things and listening to a bum on the street for draft picks!!!

Also, the person who put that article up about what Brian Billick thought should be ashamed of himself. You look at his career, he only became a guru after he got R. Moss and someone to throw the deep ball to him!!..After that, how smart was old Brian!! = Fraud!!!

I'll do you one better.
3 steps:

1. Keep PetFlip/Dump O'Farmer
2. hire 2 replacements
3. Add analytics.

Minimum turnover, database in place (for your new analysis crew), same system on the field.


Clean sweeps are stupid if other- and I mean ANY- other options are available.

Add analytics all we like, we still have no proof that Haslam won't keep this bunch beyond 2 years. His 'measurable stats' aren't looking too good to this point. It's like I said in another thread: If these guys are still here in THREE years, maybe I'll start to regain some fan-type interest. Until then, we're still running a 'Groundhog Day' script -with different actors.

The key is Haslam.
And what he's made of.
Everything else is daily news.

I also wanted to really believe that Haslam was going to do things the right way. Unfortunately, all he has done well is to continue to write checks to people he fired.

As far as your comments about Lerner, I think they are really unfair. Lerner is an introvert. He hated being in the public eye. I think that's why he hired the Fat Walrus, (besides hoping that a guy like him could turn the team around) was so that he would not have to speak in public anymore. I don't think that Lerner was mentally unstable, just shy and uncomfortable speaking in public.

Anyway, Haslam has tried being the smartest guy in the room, reportedly telling those who work for him that they can do things however they see fit ..... as long as its his way. He reportedly banishes people who disagree with him from his presence. He wants people to tell him that his way is the right way, period.

Until this changes, he can hire the best possible people,and they are going to lose. He has to accept that he is not the smartest kid on the block when it comes to football, and just hire great football people, and stay out of their way. Unfortunately, I just don't see that happening, It would require a complete change from what he has established as his pattern so far.

Those last things you mention, about Haslem's ego, is the crux of the issue which will make or break the chances of success depending on his adjusting/adapting regarding the organizational decision making methods going forward.

That ego can work at Pilot Flying J, a business he knows and understands from a lifetime of experience. But that ego has to be tethered when he walks in the door at Berea. He can walk out of the offices in Berea and go back to his worshipful self on his way back to Flying J. But he has to be able to turn that off here and let the people he hired do their jobs and he must follow their lead.

deleted...

j/c

"Lie" is a word that is used way too loosely on this board...

mac, I would have no problem calling it as "he changed his mind" rather than incorrectly stating that he lied...

After going on record, saying he would not blow things up..he blew things up.

Folks can call it what they want, but again, I have no problem with someone who simply says, Haslam lied.



Jimmy Haslam won't 'blow things up' if Browns have losing record

Aug 1, 2015
Pat McManamon
ESPN Staff Writer
link

BEREA, Ohio -- The hot seat cooled off considerably in Cleveland on Saturday.

Browns owner Jimmy Haslam said that the team's win-loss record in 2015 will not affect the future of coach Mike Pettine and general manager Ray Farmer.

"We're not going to blow things up, OK?" Haslam said Saturday after the Browns' third practice of training camp. "I think we're on the right track, so we're not going to blow things up.

"[I] Understand why people might ask that after a couple bumps in the road the first couple years. I think we're putting in place a good foundation."

Haslam stood solidly behind Pettine and Farmer, calling them quality people, smart and hard-working. The statement is significant given Haslam replaced coach Rob Chudzinski, GM Mike Lombardi and CEO Joe Banner after one season.

I don't think we can say Haslam anymore. I think we need to say "the Haslams."

Personally, I am not buying into this as "new," "cutting edge," "progressive," "pioneering," or "innovative."

I think analytics are a tool rather than an end-all. I think that we have too many voices making decisions and that leads to friction, especially because some of those voices have already failed at working w/others in the past.

All of these guys are going to ultimately report to The Haslams. How is that going to turn out well if he continues to meddle, interfere, and continue to blow things up if there isn't instant gratification.

We should have stuck w/Pet and most of his coaching staff.

Paul DePodesta can help the Browns; here's how


Ben Alamar
ESPN Stats & Info




Pretend you are the general manager of the Browns, and you have to decide whether Tramon Williams is good enough to be a starting corner on a good defense or if you need to upgrade that position in the offseason. In front of you sits a decent amount of information in the form of evaluations. These are the evaluations of your coaches and scouts who have worked with Williams and know him well. They have coached him, reviewed tape, studied him and written down their thoughts in a systematic way.


But you're curious. You have questions:


Is there a way to know how often receivers got open against him, and compare that to all the other starting corners in the league, based on every play of every game?


Did he show significant improvement during the season in an area of weakness in these evaluations? Maybe he allowed receivers to get open on deep crossing routes, but began to improve. Maybe his trajectory is improving, but coaches have specific moments of failure burned into their brains.


If Williams isn't good enough to be a starting corner, could he be a low-priced backup who at least knows our scheme? What is the value of familiarity?


And what do we do with this new chip technology the NFL is handing us? (More on that later.)


Those are the kinds of questions someone who understands the power of analytics might help answer. It's not pure numbers -- after all, it's all born out of watching Williams' every play -- but it demands that observations turn into data. It's also why someone with no real NFL experience but a wealth of experience dealing with gaining a competitive advantage for teams through data could be of great use. That someone is a guy like Paul DePodesta. He has the potential to help an NFL team gain a real competitive advantage as the NFL moves into a new world of data. And it doesn't have to "disrupt" the product in the way some might think.

DePodesta was made famous by Michael Lewis' "Moneyball" due to his ability to turn baseball statistics into information that helped the Oakland A's compete against big-spending teams like the New York Yankees for a fraction of the total salary. He is now the chief strategy officer for the Cleveland Browns, a hire that has inspired much hand-wringing in some corners. Some folks believe DePodesta has not earned a position of power in an NFL franchise because of his lack of experience and knowledge of the NFL. But to paraphrase what an NBA executive once told me after I was hired to be an analytics consultant, DePodesta wasn't hired for his knowledge of football. Instead he was hired for his expertise in taking massive amounts of data and providing information the football experts can utilize to make better decisions. He is not there to reinvent football; he is there to give football people more tools. And he is there to drive that kind of thinking throughout the entire organization.


To be clear, DePodesta will not be doing a ton of number-crunching for the Browns. The Browns already have Ken Kovash on staff; he is one of the top analysts in the NFL and will lead the actual analysis. But NFL teams don't just already have a lot of useful data, they are also about to be caught under an avalanche of new data. The league has installed chips in every player's shoulder pads and can now track a player's location and movements multiple times a second during every play. The teams will be given access to that data soon, and they need to have some way of turning that massive data set into useful information to gain a competitive advantage.

That, or they'll be left behind.


This is where DePodesta's experience is exactly what teams need. People who have spent their lives in the NFL have a ton of valuable experience and knowledge, and DePodesta (or someone like him) cannot replace that. Those same football people though, have little to no experience generating a competitive advantage out of a massive new data set. What DePodesta has that many (if not all) football lifers do not is the experience of effectively turning massive amounts of data into information that helps those football people make better decisions in every part of the organization. This kind of data can be utilized to assist the GM with making better personnel decisions, give the coach even more insight into opponents' strengths and weaknesses when developing game plans, and help position coaches better track and understand the progress their players are making.


And, given all the new kinds of data teams will be offered, people like DePodesta can be valuable in figuring out not just what should be used, but what should NOT be used.


There is no guarantee that DePodesta will be successful in his new position. After all, if the Browns don't have a good quarterback, they could have the minds behind the Manhattan Project in the front office and it wouldn't matter. He is, however, imminently qualified to help a sports organization learn the best way to deal with data.


Ben Alamar is the Director of Production Analytics at ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14527393/why-paul-depodesta-qualified-help-cleveland-browns-nfl

That is not a lie.

I'm not trying to be snarky here, but who are you referring to?

Thanks for the article.

I am not positive about this, but I don't recall anyone being against analytics. Not sure why people are still trying to prove that they are a useful tool.

I think using analytics is a good idea. I think they are an excellent tool.

However, that does not change the dynamics between the people in the building. Meddling, interference, people being on different pages, lack of patience, the failure to believe in continuity, etc are not going to be changed by analytics.

Haslam.

Thanks, G-Dawg! That's a great and enlightening article...

He's the top dog; that's not going to change. OK, who else?

Who else? There doesn't have to a who else? He owns the team. 32....go ahead and believe that everything is honky-dorry. I don't care.

However, I will keep my opinion and I am tired of having these conversations w/you. You never learn when to say when.

I respond to a low percentage posts. Those that I do respond to, it is (generally) because I believe I have something positive to add, a concrete belief, or I simply want to stir the pot (which I seldom do).

I agree. In some cases (and I think this one qualifies), it's lazy use of language.

In my book, 'lie' is an intentional untruth used to mislead someone:
"The used-car salesman lied about the car's repair record to sell it at a higher price."

In this case, I believe that Haslam had every intention of keeping his word... until the bad W/L (and Berea in-fighting) record made him squirrelly... and he reverted back to type.

That isn't a lying. That's changing one's mind. Same results, but different circumstances.

Which brings me back to my original post- and my misgivings about the Browns' immediate future:

In 5 years, the only name that has remained is Haslam's. Everything the Browns do or will ever do runs through him. I think every prospective coaching hire should consult his own analytics on Haslam before saying 'yes' to the job. For his own safety.

mac...
Why did you not respond to the questions I asked about the claims you made regarding Haslem's odd, bizarre and skewed from normal behavior? I answered to every one of your points as you ticked them off in your post but you ignored that totally, as you often do, and focused on the one thing where you think you have a point, you don't.

Based partly on our history of discussions over the years, and in the spirit of the Browns new organizational set-up, I've used analytics to determine the likely hood that you would respond to me explaining exactly what you mean, using examples, of Haslem's odd, bizarre and abnormal behavior.

My analytics says it won't happen.

Thank you for weighing in on the "lie" thing. I tried to give my take on it, which is the same, but it didn't stick with those who hold the belief that he lied from the beginning.

How many marriages that end in divorce started out with, "I'll love you forever." I'm pretty sure there wasn't anybody lying in the beginning.

Things change. Opinions change. Circumstances change. Wants, needs, expectations and desires change. In the instance of Haslem, he's apparently not allowed human right to reconsider and adjust his actions with any of those changes or it's said of him that he lies with the intent of deception from the beginning.

You put up a used car for sale for $700. I promise to buy it for $700 on the first of next month when I get paid. That's three weeks from now. Meanwhile, you continue to drive it and run the crap out of it. You bump into a few things causing dents and scratches. You overheat it a couple of times and now the engine has a knocking sound. On a trip to get gas for your mower you carried the gas can inside the passenger compartment because one of the dings you created won't allow the trunk to open. The gas spills from the overfilled can and now that odor is strong inside the car.

The first of the month arrives. I show up to buy the car. But since our agreement you've taken a $700 car and effectively reduced it's value down to $300 by misusing it. When I refuse to pay $700 for it you point your finger in my face and with a vicious sneer you call me a liar because we had an agreement.

Here are things that do not change.

--The Browns never give their employees enough time to complete the job.

--The Browns fire their coaches and many FO people every couple of years.

--We hear grand talk how things are going to be different this time because the right plan is in place.

--Many good players, coaches, and FO guys do not want to come to Cleveland.

--The Browns lose a lot of games and talk of the draft dominates while talk of the playoffs is rarely broached after September.

You probably left a few items off but that list is accurate as it stands.

You only responded to the Johnny subject. What's left to respond to is in quote above, you know, your declaration that Haslem has been behaving in odd, bizzare and abnormal ways. I'm only asking you to explain exactly, with evidence and examples, what those odd, bizarre and abnormal ways are.

You were so sure of yourself in that long post you made, to which I responded to your each and every point. Now, respond to mine. What I'm asking for is in the above quote and in the body of this post so I won't repeat it.


What say you?