Jack Duffin posts two good reads.
Click on the links to see the table illustrations.
First Article:
March 11th 2027 - The New League Year & The Day The Cleveland Browns Cut Deshaun Watson by Jack Duffin September 14 We know when Deshaun Watson will depart Cleveland. It is just a waiting game until the new league year in 2027.
It is a matter of weeks and months until Deshaun Watson departs the Cleveland Browns, March 11th, 2027, to be exact. Despite many people believing he is a free agent after the 2026 season, that is not the case. In March 2024, I hypothesized in an article that it would help the Cleveland Browns significantly if they managed to get Watson and his agent to agree to add a dummy year to his contract for 2027. Then in December 2024 they did exactly that. So what is a dummy year, why did they do it, and what does it mean?
Deshaun Watson's Contract
When looking at Watson's contract, we have five years of equal pay. The team and the agent agreed on this. The two most important numbers in a contract are cash and guarantees; the cap number is third and significantly less important, as it can be manipulated.
2022 - $46m (fully guaranteed)
2023 - $46m (fully guaranteed)
2024 - $46m (fully guaranteed)
2025 - $46m (fully guaranteed)
2026 - $46m (fully guaranteed)
Here is what happens if you look at it on the salary cap if you are just restructuring the deal to the max, I have color-coded each of the $46m payments so you can follow them through the contract.
A 'Dummy Year'
How a 'dummy year' works is that it is an entirely new contract year for 2027. It would have the minimum base salary, so $1,345,000 and then a $200m base salary in 2029 if he is on the team the third day of the 2027 league year. This allows the team to give him a post-June 1st cut once the new league year starts (11th March 2027) and spread this final dead cap over two years. In theory, it could be a $1bn roster bonus; they just want something large enough in there that the team will cut that player. The team just needs to get to the first day of the new league year to do a post-June 1st cut, making the move before the money is guaranteed.
Adding this dummy year (which they have used in the contracts of Clowney & Smith before and is common for salary cap manipulation) is especially useful with departing quarterbacks. This means in 2027 they are only dealing with the prorated money from this one season, and then in 2028 they have all the money from future years to deal with. The downside is you don't get a compensation pick, but I hardly doubt Watson is going to get the Cleveland Browns one.
What Does This Mean For Watson?
This change to the contract means nothing really for Watson; he was still due the $46m each of the five years and this has not changed. Even with normal restructures, it will rarely change the payment date when the player receives the money; this is a common myth about the salary cap that they get it all up front.
Without this change, the Cleveland Browns would have gotten no benefit from keeping him on the roster for the 2026 season. With this change, they can save significant salary cap space in exchange for a roster spot in 2026.
What Does This Mean For The Salary Cap?
Whatever way you structured the Watson contract, it was going to cost you $230m of cash and $230m of cap space; your choice is how it sits on the salary cap by pushing it into future years. Let us look at backloading versus cash equals cap. I have done an 8% increase of the cap for the future, which is what you would expect - if not more. By restructuring the deal each year, the same $230m costs you 12.71% less of salary cap by spreading out these cap hits. The key thing to remember with the restructure is that you don't have to spend that money now; everything created rolls into next year. That creates natural flexibility and is the key framework of their spending philosophy.
Conclusion
Once they get to the 2027 season and Watson is no longer being paid by the Cleveland Browns, the salary cap will be around $325m and with their sustainable model, they can be looking at a cash spend of around $390m with nothing going to Watson. These dead cap charges are no issue at all because these new contracts will be backloaded on the salary cap like the others, and they can be in Super Bowl contention as long as they can find an answer at quarterback.
No one is arguing they are better suited to not pay this money to Deshaun Watson. They need to find an answer at quarterback, and that comes through the draft in 2027. With the young core of players, a collection of draft assets remaining and money to spend on free agents, trades and extensions, they are in a good roster-building position.
The 2027 season should be about confirming the rookie quarterback is good and battling to make the playoffs. In 2028 ,they should continue their progression and be back to winning playoff games (unlike the Steelers). Anything less should result in a new General Manager.
Second Article:
Can The Cleveland Browns Extend Deshaun Watson With His $200m Poison Pill Contract by Jack Duffin September 30Back in December 2024 the Cleveland Browns added a $200m poison pill into Deshaun Watson's contract. This created a dummy year, giving them the ability to cut him as a Post June 1st cut on the 11th of March 2027. But if they want to extend him down the line, how does that work?
This is a question I have regularly been getting since Watson's great performance in week two. I don't believe anyone is considering rushing into a Deshaun Watson extension, as that feels like a decision for after the 2026 season. But what people have been wanting to know is how it would look and how it would work. So let's dive into this.
I'm going to use the numbers with no suspension or insurance changes so that it makes it much easier to read and follow what is happening.
Deshaun Watson's Initial Contract
Here is the initial deal, $46m every year. Restructured to spread the salary cap hits out and give the team maximum flexibility.
Dummy Year/Poison Pill Changes
In December 2024, the Cleveland Browns asked Deshaun Watson's camp to amend his contract. This was to allow them to 'extend' his contract by a few days so that he could be a Post June 1st cut in March 2027 rather than becoming a free agent two days earlier. This means they can split the 2027 dead cap across the 2027 and 2028 season.
The mechanism to do this is either called adding a dummy year or adding a poison pill clause into the contract. It says if he is on the team on the 13th March 2027 they will guarantee him $200m in the 2029 season. He is never going to see this money but it just gives him certainty they will be cutting him.
Here are the changes/impact for all sides:
Watson - he is a free agent two/three days later
Browns - they can split his dead cap over two years but they lose the ability for Watson to qualify as part of the comp pick formula (they aren't likely to get any anyway as they will add more free agents than lose them, I will write more on comp picks later in the season)
What An Extension Would Look Like
If they want to extend Watson, they actually get longer than they initially would. Other players can negotiate with the rest of the league during the 'legal tampering period' on the 9th of March 2027. Watson can't do this until he is cut, so the Browns can hold exclusive negotiating rights up until the 12th of March, as they can cut him on the 11th or 12th.
Let's say they agree to extend him to a one year, $7m deal. The dummy year/poison pill is automatically removed because a new contract automatically supersedes any future spending agreement. Past money that was paid in base salary, restructures, options bonus etc doesn't change. The salary cap cost in 2027 and 2028 go up by $7m in total.
They would likely put a dummy year back into the contract for 2028 when doing the extension, giving them even more flexibility. The salary cap impact of adding a $7m extension to his current deal is laid out below.
2027: Up $2,476,000
2028: Down $25,698,000
2029: Up $30,222,000
You are taking the current 2028 number and spreading it over two years instead. Despite what people have tried to claim, you don't extend Watson to a $7m deal to help manage the salary cap. You only do it because you believe he is worth the $7m and better than the other options you can find as a bridge quarterback on the open market. Just because players are free agents, they might not want to come to Cleveland who will be drafting a quarterback, Daniel Jones chose the Colts over other teams because they promised him no quarterback would be drafted high.
