DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2016 NFL Season 2016 NFL Draft Carson Wentz

How does that prove he was under a pressure a lot? I watched videos of him. Like all QBs, he was pressured some, but it certainly wasn't a lot. In fact, I saw him making a ton of throws from extremely clean pockets.

I guess it depends on your definition of a lot. If the other team blitzed, the interior o-line almost always struggled to pick it up. On play action rollouts, it seemed like there was often an unblocked guy right in his face as he was finishing the fake.. On three step drops and one step smoke routes yes he had a clean pocket and Wentz was usually successful in those situations. The o-line is probably above average, but they're not the juggernaut clevesteve seemed to be making them out to be.

Maybe I'm too used to watching the Browns D when thinking of a QB having a clean pocket and all day to throw. He wasn't sitting back there picking daisies with no one near him while he waited for guys to get open. He had to move, manipulate the not the cleanest pocket, and dodge free rushers fairly frequently. He did it enough for me to feel that he is able to do those things consistently. For me, through all those games, it was a large enough sample size to classify as "a lot".

There are QBs that make a pocket look cleaner. Can we talk about his superb pocket awareness already? You almost never see a college QB step up into the pocket, let alone have a feel how to move there while keeping the eyes downfield. I can't remember the last time I saw that on college tape. Maybe Ben, but I'm not sure.

Are you talking about Wentz or Goff?

Goff works better in the pocket than any QB since Bridgewater.

Wentz or Goff? Which QB would be a better fit for Hue's scheme? Do we yet know what the scheme will be? I am not sufficiently knowledgeable to provide much insight in this regard...

They are both a fit for Hue's offense because he will tailor the offense to what they do well. He has coached (as the QB coach or offensive coordinator) Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, Jason Campbell, Joey Harrington, and Patrick Ramsey (among several others who started games here and there).

[quote
They are both a fit for Hue's offense because he will tailor the offense to what they do well.][/quote]

How do you know this?

Now you've got me worried...

How do you know this? [/quote]

j/c

I vaguely recall a clip or article where my take was that he wants more vertical passing. I know little more than this tidbit...

How do you know this?[/quote]

It is what he has said he will do and it has been what he has done in the past.

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2016/1/14/107...ive-coordinator

In the past Hue Jackson threw downfield a lot. The best downfield passer in the NCAA is available in this draft.

So you are saying that we draft Lynch then.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/20...in-the-country/

No offense to PFF, but in grading QB's I prefer tape to stats. The WR's account for half of those stats and Lynch was throwing to 4 walk on WR's.

I don't knock Goff's arm as much as some. I think he can make all the throws. I just don't think he has the same arm as Wentz or Lynch. He has better feet. He is overall more accurate and NFL ready. He has a lot of pluses going his way and a few minuses. In my opinion, the race between those three is close. If you are selling me on Goff though, you'd be better off talking about those NFL feet and not about his deep ball.

If you want he best deep ball out of the entire draft class, take Cardale Jones. Next would probably be Lynch in my opinion.

Better defenses:

The ones Goff faced or the ones Wentz faced?

Are we back to the tallest midget again?

Are we talking about throwing the farthest or actually hitting receivers downfield?

I agree that stats can be misleading, but these are just straight up percentages of deep ball throws.

There is no comparison between the two.

If you're argument is that Wentz is a better QB because he is more physically talented and has more potential, then I will listen.

If you're argument is that Wentz faced similar defenses as Goff, then you need to get your head checked.

(By you're I mean "a person", not specifically you.)

I don't know anything about the other players on either of those teams. But this is one example of why I don't put much stock in the stats.

What is not taken into account is that the WR plays a huge part in every successful or failed pass. But the stat is given to the QB as though he did it all himself in a vacuum.

Another thing not taken into account is the play of the DBs on each specific pass. The DBs can play a huge role in the success or failure of a pass attempt. But again, the stat is given to the QB alone.

Other variables not taken into account is the scheme of both the offense and the opposing defense. Change either one, or both, and the stats will change as well. Even the WR who is not the target of the pass plays a role in how well he runs his route which can help the targeted WR get open, or not. There are so many variables I can't name them all. Don't even know them all but could come up with an exhaustive list regardless.

So comparing two different QBs by their stats is really comparing two very different situations on each pass attempt. Each attempt involves other players who play huge roles of which the QB has no control over.

This is why I trust the "eye test" of others who know and understand the position, (I know I don't), rather than the recorded stats. Every single stat is dependent on multiple variables that are not considered in the stat.

Stats are simply facts. They give no indication as to exactly how those facts were obtained. And the only real, trustful information is how the stats were obtained.

Let's call the better, by the stats, deep ball passer #1 and the other guy #2. If #1 goes on to play on a team with inferior WRs or vs opposing defenses much better than he's faced so far then his stats will drop. At the same token, if #2 goes on to play on a team with superior WRs or vs inferior defenses then his stats will go up.

So now we have a switching of the #1 and the #2 in so far as the stats go on their ability to throw a deep ball. That leaves us scratching our heads. That is why the current stats have so little value. Stats, which are simply facts, will change depending upon the changing of other players and schemes on both sides of the ball.

That's why it's folly to put too much into the current stats. Or to compare the future success of a player, any player, based upon current or past stats. Because when the situation, (the coaching), the variables, (the talent of the players, on both sides of the ball) change, so will the stats.

We can say, "Well, we don't have the advantage that the talent evaluators have in being able to see the players on film so all we have to go on is the stats, it's the best we've got." Then we can also say, "We don't have near enough information to accurately make an evaluation."

I'm not saying that stats have no value. They do. But if all we have are stats that makes it pointless to argue a point.

This is only my opinion. Others have other opinions.


By the time I posted my response I see there were other posts saying the same thing I'm saying. Rather than deleting my post I'll just acknowledge them and let my opinion stand.

We can use stats to help confirm what we see with our eyes. Goff throws a beautiful deep ball. He completed deep balls at a higher rate than any other QB in college last year.

And not only did he throw deep successfully, he threw deep a ton more than both Wentz and Lynch.

I can guarantee that there are stats that exists that answer some of the questions you raise. Unfortunately, you and I don't have access to them.

Something tells me Ken Kovash has access to these stats and that they still favor Jared Goff.

What is this "something" that tells you that? Not the first half of your sentence, but the second half. I'm guessing that 'something' is your own brain. Fair enough.

Both

As far as those stats, any QB in a no huddle Air Raid offense is going to put up a high percentage of deep throws. They have more attempts and more of those attempts are 20+ yards.

What those stats don't show you is at 40 plus yards Goff starts to struggle to get the ball there. Lynch and Wentz still have plenty of arm left on those throws.

Of course the second half is my opinion. But it based on the fact that advanced stats (or analytics) often times favor a player who has faced tougher competition.

Legit question:

How many throws are made by a QB each year that are forty yards or more?

Legit question #2:

How do know if Wentz or Lynch can make those throws consistently when we have never seen them do it?

For your first question It really depends on the team, but if you want to run a Vertical offense, that's exactly the type of QB that you will need.

For your second question I suggest that you look at tape on draft breakdown. It shows all the throws by all the QB's. Pay particular attention to the long throws and you'll see what I'm talking about.

A vertical offense like the one Hue Jackson ran with Andy Dalton?



It does not show all the games. It doesn't have Goff's game against ASU (perhaps his best game, against the toughest defense). It is also missing Oregon State, Oregon, Washington, and Grambling.

You seem to think or at least indicate that Hue had some say with the drafting of Dalton. He did not. In the past Hue has worked with the talent he has been given.

If a person plans to run a vertical O, given HIS CHOICE that would indicate a QB with a strong arm. Not Andy Dalton.

Andy Dalton is probably a poor example of a Vertical offense style QB. Big Ben or Joe Flacco would be better examples. Remember that Dalton was already there when Hue got there. I wouldn't count on the offense looking the same and I think he adapted to what he had.

It does not have all the games, but it does have all the throws in each game that it has.

I sense you are gearing up for a showdown here, so let me say this.

You can't put up stats for 20 yard throws and say he throws a beautiful deep ball. You and I can make a 20 yard throw. A 20 yard throw is nothing in the NFL. It is not a deep ball.

Show me Goff doing this




Again I'm not knocking Goff, but at least try to talk about all the real strengths the kid has instead of pretending that his weaknesses aren't weak.

Goff does not have the raw arm strength of Cardale Jones (or Kyle Boller or JaMarcus Russell), but I believe he can make every throw necessary to be a very good NFL QB.

Check out the throw at 7:18 of the Air Force game (as he's getting hit):

I'm not exactly sure the purpose of trying to convince each other that one QB or the other is the better choice. None of us will factor in the final decision if the Browns draft a QB @ #2. There is the combine, private workouts, and interviews to which we won't be privy which will factor heavily in the decision. We have no choice but to trust, or hope, that those making the choices make good ones. Personally, I think Goff has the highest floor but the lowest ceiling. Lynch is the reverse, the highest ceiling with the lowest floor. Wentz seems to split the difference, which one could argue, makes him the best target. I would be fine with any of them, as long as the team is successful in developing the pick into a long term, quality starter. I would also be fine with them drafting for defense in the first and taking a shot on someone like Cook or Prescott with a later pick. As long as what they do works.

Who they pick is less important to me than that they get it right. Whoever they pick, I want those picks to bring us closer to respectability, closer to a championship, and ultimately closer to being a perennial winner. We deserve no less after all our years of suffering!

Shutdown the entire site.

That was a nice pass and is probably right about the extent of his range. He can make a living all day in the NFL with the range that he has. I wouldn't pick Goff for a vertical offense but, I'd take him in a conventional offense over the other guys any day.

Watch his feet in every pass, especially the ones where he is dropping back. He takes his drop back steps, machine guns his feet, and gets rid of the football. He is going to make his o-line look really good with that efficiency. He doesn't waste any effort or time.

My concerns about Goff are...

Can his frame hold up to NFL hits and can he make the more complex reads in an NFL system? As far as taking the hits go, he's about the same size as Matt Ryan was and I don't see any reason that he can't put on a bit of weight over time. The big unknown to me is going to be his read progression. He looks very fluid in his progressions now, but he is only asked to make top down or bottom up reads in the Air-Raid and everything is based off of 15-20 concepts.

That being said, the kid can't help the system that he is in and the fact that he isn't asked to make harder reads doesn't mean that he can't make them. He strikes me as a smart and hard worker given his advanced technique and footwork.

One thing that is a given is that you aren't going to drop this kid into a vertical offense like Pittsburgh and Baltimore and have him perform well. That isn't the type of QB that he is. If you want efficiency, he's your man. If you want to stretch the field, look elsewhere. If Hue takes him, it won't be a vertical offense that we are running.

For bragging rights when it's all said and done, I guess.

But like a demented contest it'll still not be over once the pick is made. Oh, there will be a short bragging period until Part 2 of the competition concludes: Does the player pan out or not? If he does then the bragging can continue for the win. If he doesn't then the bragging rights revert to everyone who didn't pick him.

j/c:

I think the wide variety of opinions on the top three qbs illustrates how each of them have question marks in their game.