Originally Posted By: GrimmBrown I think the boom bust rate is so high because they go to bad teams and dysfunctional organizations.
I think that's a part of it too. But I'm not overlooking desperate, needy teams reaching for lesser talent high in the draft.
I don't think busts at the top are position specific. (See Trent Richardson, Justin Gilbert, Barkevious Mingo)
I agree, it's not just QBs.
How are you defining your tiers? Are you applying similar criteria to other positions? Who are your top tier prospects?
I have never tried to evaluate draft talent. The most I've done is read a couple of easy to find scouting reports to get an idea of some players. That and I pay close attention to a few members of this board who have their finger on the pulse and a good track record predicting draft players. This year I've read tons of reports on Wentz and Goff. There were a few that rated both QBs as proposed 2nd round picks. That's what made me think about tiers.
Wentz scouting report sounds a lot like Cam Newton's (Link) to me, except he didn't have the one year of mercenary work at a big school.
In that link you posted they graded Cam at 8.19 and Wentz at 6.23. Below is how they describe their grading system:
GRADE TITLE 9.00-10 Once-in-lifetime player 8.00-8.99 Perennial All-Pro (Cam) 7.50-7.99 Future All-Pro 7.00-7.49 Pro Bowl-caliber player 6.50-6.99 Chance to become Pro Bowl-caliber player 6.00-6.49 Should become instant starter (Wentz) 5.50-5.99 Chance to become NFL starter 5.20-5.49 NFL backup or special teams potential 5.01-5.19 Better-than-average chance to make NFL roster 5.00 50-50 Chance to make NFL roster 4.75-4.99 Should be in an NFL training camp 4.50-4.74 Chance to be in an NFL training camp NO GRADE Likely needs time in developmental league.
If their grading system is correct then Wentz barely makes the tier of "should become an instant starter". With both of them graded as rookies by the same people/system Wentz has a ways to go to go to reach a Cam Newton rookie grade of "Perennal All Pro", and a year of mercenary work ain't gonna put him there.
I think that grading system defines the tiers pretty well. By the looks of it, and remember, you posted it first, for accuracy, Wentz is well below a 1st tier player. I don't want to draft a player at that tier at #2 overall. It's reaching.
As shown, his score is closer to the tier below his, "Has a chance to become NFL starter" than he is the tier just above, "Chance to become Pro Bowl-caliber player.
Would it make the projection easier if Wentz had played at an Auburn? Maybe (Most Likely). If Bosa (insert player you like) had played at NDSU would you like him any less? He'd still be the same person.
For that you'd have to ask the people who actually grade them.
I like Bosa, Ramsey, and Wentz (along with a few other players at the top), but Wentz's leadership and positivity push him over the top for me. We've got to find a way to dispel the negativity that all too often seems to suck the life out of this team. We need a face of the franchise.
I agree somewhat with what you say there. But I caution that we don't make another mistake of reaching for a player through desperation.
I apologize for the formatting, but I couldn't quote since the old thread was closed. Wentz NFL.com "grade" is already changing. Link
Originally Posted By: nfl.com
Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State (from 6.23 to 6.51): My grade essentially changed from "chance to be a good starter" to the lower end of "good starter with Pro Bowl potential". Wentz looked rock-solid in his workouts and had a commanding presence throughout the process. The discussions I had with team executives who raved about his maturity, intelligence and poise in their interviews really sold me on bumping his grade. The physical traits and tools were always there, but adding the "intangibles" piece of the puzzle helped finalize my grade.
Sorry, Vers. I hadn't talked about Wentz in awhile and I've got another exam today. It worked last time.
You mess with the "Bull," you get the horns. Fiercely Independent.
The odds of a rookie QB succeeding does have a great deal to do with his own talent. It also has a lot to do with the environment in which he is drafted into. Certainly playmakers have some impact, but even more than that is a solid OL that can protect him and build his confidence in the pocket.
This team took a huge step backwards yesterday in helping the environment for a rookie QB. We already lacked playmakers and now we have risked a rookie QB's environment to succeed even further by risking his development from a security standpoint. Currently it is a hazardous environment for a rookie QB.
Which probably means we will draft one.
Intoducing for The Cleveland Browns, Quarterback Deshawn "The Predator" Watson. He will also be the one to choose your next head coach.
This team took a huge step backwards yesterday in helping the environment for a rookie QB. We already lacked playmakers and now we have risked a rookie QB's environment to succeed even further by risking his development from a security standpoint. Currently it is a hazardous environment for a rookie QB.
Yes!
Charley Casserly got into this on NFL Network. He was the GM of the expansion Houston Texans. They drafted Tony Boselli and Ryan Young in the expansion draft. Boselli never played for the Texans, Young was bad. They then drafted Derek Carr and he got ruined by being hit too much (Casserly's words, not mine).
The odds of a rookie QB succeeding does have a great deal to do with his own talent. It also has a lot to do with the environment in which he is drafted into. Certainly playmakers have some impact, but even more than that is a solid OL that can protect him and build his confidence in the pocket.
This team took a huge step backwards yesterday in helping the environment for a rookie QB. We already lacked playmakers and now we have risked a rookie QB's environment to succeed even further by risking his development from a security standpoint. Currently it is a hazardous environment for a rookie QB.
Which probably means we will draft one.
Good post Pit. You are exactly right. Also intelligence comes into play ( football intelligence) I just hope we draft a QB and not waste a 3rd rounder on SFs backup. But who knows what the Harvard genius's in Berea are thinking. Looks like 2016 is going to be a loooog year.
Agree with you vers. Cardele throws a beautiful deep pass that tends to be right on target. Like most big armed qb's he can struggle with the touch pass occasionally.
What I see as a big issue with his accuracy is his brain. When he has a simple read, he drops and throws. Right on target. But thre are plays where he drops back and you can almost see him thinking. Once that happens the ball tends to get wild.
The difference between Jesus and religion Religion mocks you for having dirty feet Jesus gets down on his knees and washes them
Cardale has got a great arm and his accuracy is pretty good. His most unique trait I think is his ability to deliver in the face of getting hit. As far as his ability to make the right throw... I think it might have something to do with him only starting ten or so games ever, and he might have room to grow there. But I'm no expert, just seems logical to me.
Cardale has got a great arm and his accuracy is pretty good. His most unique trait I think is his ability to deliver in the face of getting hit. As far as his ability to make the right throw... I think it might have something to do with him only starting ten or so games ever, and he might have room to grow there. But I'm no expert, just seems logical to me.
I think it might also have something to do with the fact that he didn't have a lot of chemistry with his receivers. Noah Brown and Corey Smith got hurt. Braxton was/is still learning the position. He had a reliable target in Thomas and he did focus (lock in) on him sometimes. Paris Campbell had some pretty bad drops.
I don't think Cardale was the best fit for the read option plays that were being called early on in the season. I'm not saying he'll be great, but I think he'll be a better fit in a pro-style system.
You mess with the "Bull," you get the horns. Fiercely Independent.
How smart can a guy be when all he has to do is keep himself out of trouble for a little more than a month, and he could make a million bucks or more, and have a chance at being an NFL QB ....... and he makes the decision to drive drunk.
QB is all about making good decision, and being a leader. This sure creates questions about his ability in either category.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
How smart can a guy be when all he has to do is keep himself out of trouble for a little more than a month, and he could make a million bucks or more, and have a chance at being an NFL QB ....... and he makes the decision to drive drunk.
QB is all about making good decision, and being a leader. This sure creates questions about his ability in either category.
Absolutely. If he was on our list he should be crossed off. Don't need that crap again. Bad enough we still have Meathead on the roster.
Jimmy Johnson: "Hit me in the head with a hammer the next time I take a dumb guy".
Well, it's pretty damned dumb getting a DUI this close to the draft.... no thanks. Meat already excedes our allotment of stupid. We are full up.
Well, I wouldn't draft Prescott at this point, but signing him as an UFA (if he goes undrafted) and stashing him on the practice squad wouldn't be a bad idea. If this incident proves to be a one-time mistake, then we get a kid with potential on the cheap.
1. #GMstrong 2. "I'm just trying to be the best Nick I can be." ~ Nick Chubb 3. Forgive me Elf, I didn’t have faith. ~ Tulsa 4. ClemenZa #1
Well, I wouldn't draft Prescott at this point, but signing him as an UFA (if he goes undrafted) and stashing him on the practice squad wouldn't be a bad idea. If this incident proves to be a one-time mistake, then we get a kid with potential on the cheap.
He would have to clear waivers in order to make it to the practice squad.
The more I see of Wentz the more I'm hoping we just draft the kid. Kap makes way too much for the way he plays. Unless there is a massive turnaround in his play trading for him would be a serious mistake. Draft Wentz and if he doesn't work out he's not a salary cap killer.
The more I see of Wentz the more I'm hoping we just draft the kid. Kap makes way too much for the way he plays. Unless there is a massive turnaround in his play trading for him would be a serious mistake. Draft Wentz and if he doesn't work out he's not a salary cap killer.
As much as I would love to use that #2 pick to trade back or fill one of our other 17 needs, I tend to agree with you.
The more I see of Wentz the more I'm hoping we just draft the kid. Kap makes way too much for the way he plays. Unless there is a massive turnaround in his play trading for him would be a serious mistake. Draft Wentz and if he doesn't work out he's not a salary cap killer.
Not only that: If Chip Kelly doesn't want him even if he fits the mold of the QB's that he's typically has success with, shouldn't that be a giant red flag to teams?
The more I see of Wentz the more I'm hoping we just draft the kid. Kap makes way too much for the way he plays. Unless there is a massive turnaround in his play trading for him would be a serious mistake. Draft Wentz and if he doesn't work out he's not a salary cap killer.
Not only that: If Chip Kelly doesn't want him even if he fits the mold of the QB's that he's typically has success with, shouldn't that be a giant red flag to teams?
This is what I can't get past. He is supposedly the type of QB Kelly wants and needs. That they are trying to move him says a lot. Ignoring the insane contract and overblown trade value.
By Mary Kay Cabot, Cleveland.com on March 14, 2016 at 10:01 PM, updated March 15, 2016 at 1:38 AM
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- ESPN's Jon Gruden has a tendency to fall in love with the quarterbacks he features on his immensely popular QB Camp series, but he had especially high praise for North Dakota State's Carson Wentz in clips released Monday.
"I think he's the most NFL-ready quarterback that we've had in the last couple of years,'' Gruden says in the Wentz feature, will air in April.
That's saying a lot, considering Gruden featured Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota this year, and Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr the year before.
The Browns, who are still in the mix to trade for 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, are strongly considering Wentz along with Cal quarterback Jared Goff and other top prospects.
But Gruden certainly isn't the only analyst singing Wentz' praises. NFL Network's Mike Mayock's compared him to 2012 No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck the day before the NFL Combine last month.
"When I look at him, I see a kid that's as athletic or more athletic than Andrew Luck,'' Mayock said on a conference call. "He's bigger than Andrew Luck. He's got arm strength comparable to Andrew Luck. He just doesn't have the experience that Andrew Luck had at a high level that Andrew had coming out of college. So I see a ceiling for this kid similar to Andrew Luck. That's why I believe in this kid so much. But it's going to take a little bit of time.''
The top overall pick out of Stanford, Luck went on to make the Pro Bowl in each of his first three seasons and threw an NFL-high 40 touchdown passes in 2014 against 16 interceptions. Overall, he's thrown 105 touchdowns to 55 interceptions, and has an 85.0 career rating.
"The way I look at Wentz, the first tape I put in, I went 'Wow,''' said Mayock. "I didn't even know who he was. He was just a quarterback on my list. No clue. And I watched I think Northern Iowa and I watched this big kid sling the ball around a lot and on top of it, was athletic enough that they planned quarterback runs for him.
At the combine, Wentz finished tied for second in the 40 with a 4.77, tied for second in the broad jump and finished third in the three-cone drill. He also displayed a strong arm, good footwork, nice touch on the shorter routes and a quick release.
"Hands down, Wentz (6-5 1/4 237) was the best quarterback in these workouts,'' draft analyst Greg Cosell of NFL Films told cleveland.com. "Hands down he shone above everyone else.''
Like Mayock, he predicted big things for Wentz, who played in the FCS.
"I'd say Wentz has high level traits, the kind of traits that make you think if he were to become what he could be that he'd be a top five kind of quarterback in the league,'' Cosell said.
Gruden, who's also a huge Johnny Manziel fan, will feature six other quarterbacks in the seventh season of his QB Camp. They are Goff, Ohio State's Cardale Jones, Memphis' Paxton Lynch, Michigan State's Connor Cook, Penn State's Christian Hackenberg and Mississippi State's Dak Prescott, who was arrested two days ago on a DUI charge.
I wonder how often Gruden is right. Does he ever say anything bad? What was his take on JM?
"You know thats a great question Arps, a great question...
How do I feel about Johnny Manziel? Let me tell you how I feel about Johnny Manziel..
I like this guy. Johnny Manziel, he's a good guy, and not just a good guy, a good quarterback.. He's a guy that can play quarterback in the NFL.
Kind of reminds me of a guy I had back in Oakland by the name of Rich Gannon. Doesn't do anything great, but does a lot of things really well. He can really wing it around the field.
Yeah, Johnny Manziel, I like that guy."
Am I the only one that pronounces hyperbole "Hyper-bowl" instead of "hy-per-bo-le"?
With Gruden and the his quarterback series you have to bear in mind the format.
He has "young prospects" on the show who are now facing the draft and a career in the NFL. Do you think for a minute that it would be fair on this show to have a young man on and be critical? Do you know how damaging that would be to the young man? Would any others want to be on the show and get criticized?
Personally I love his show. I like how he interacts with them. He gets them relaxed and they fun with him. They can also learn something. If you watch it closely you can also learn. You get to see how they respond. You get to see them as what they are.
Sometimes guys reveal their character. I remember watching Jimmy Clausen; and thinking this guy will never be a leader.
Take the show and Gruden for what it is and enjoy it.
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