DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2016 NFL Season 2016 NFL Draft Impact Players Vs Guys

Yeah, because if they let him slip by, they are probably on Crack.

Can we please get back to the thread topic?

You make a good point Vers. It's up for debate on what positions people prefer as impact level players but undoubtedly it's been our problem for years.

Other than Thomas we have really had no one to give us an edge since k2. I'm not a believer in drafting Ball carriers high but we definitely need to shoot for some real difference makers. Coleman and dotscon come to mind.

Yeah, I think we really need an impact WR and even more importantly, a pass rusher who has to be schemed against.

That was on topic. Spence is an impact player. #2 on Bucky's list.

I wish I was higher on the pass rushers this year. I think ogbah could add a nice speed to power boost replacing kruger but I'm not crazy about any rolb prospects. Butler could be a good 5 Tech though. With some Polish he could be a real steal.

lol.. he sent results.. not urine. lmao..

be funny as heck if he walked up to the facilities with a cup saying "this is fresh coach.. check it.."

I don't know if any of these guys are sure-fire impact players other than Ramsey, but there are guys at impact positions that could be true impact players and who might be available when we pick:

Pass rushers:

Bosa
Lawson
Buckner
Floyd
Spence
Nkemdiche
Dodd
Lee
Rankins
Ogbah

Wide Receivers:

Coleman
Doctson
Treadwell
Boyd
Thomas
Braxton Miller [later on]

Cornerbacks:

Ramsey
Hargreaves
Apple
Alexander
Jackson
Burns

Running Backs:

Zeke

I think these are the guys we should target. Average to good players are needed at all positions, but you need impact players at impact positions in order to achieve greatness as a team.

My thinking is that you have a much better shot of picking up true impact players early in the draft. I also think that if you do it the reverse way, as Stetson suggested, you will have a much harder time picking impact players later because you will not have favorable draft position if you are a "good" team.

I am really hoping that the Browns identify a true impact player at a key position and draft him at 8. I don't know which guy or guys are the true impact player, but they get paid big bucks to make these kinds of evaluations.

I think the caveat to all of this is your team's system. If you run a 3-4, then drafting a 4-3 DE might not help you.

We had this discussion on another thread, but did you know that NFL defenses are in the nickel almost 2/3 of the time?

Let me see if I can find the stats:



I think that is a telling stat. I was surprised at first, but then once I started thinking about it.......

Pass rushers:

Bosa high 1st
Lawson mid 1st
Buckner high 1st
Floyd mid 1st
Spence 2nd
Nkemdiche 2nd
Dodd 2nd
Lee mid 1st (would probably play inside for us)
Rankins mid 1st
Ogbah 2nd

Wide Receivers:

Coleman mid 1st
Doctson mid 1st
Treadwell mid 1st
Boyd 2nd
Thomas 2nd
Braxton Miller 3rd

Cornerbacks:

Ramsey high 1st
Hargreaves high 1st
Apple Mid 1st
Alexander low 1st
Jackson 2nd
Burns 2nd

Running Backs:

Zeke high 1st

Depending on how things fall, 3 of these guys could fall to us perhaps 4 with another trade.

Good addition. We have options. If we could add 3 or 4 guys that excel at impact positions........

I have a question for you guys who know about analytics in the NFL. Is it safe to say that part of their analytics is to factor in the importance of each position?

I'm on record stating I want Elliot at #8. However, I don't believe we will go that route. I think we will go receiver with our 1st pick. If that is the case I think we will trade back and pick up a 2nd round pick. I am okay with this line of thinking because it still gets us a potential impact player in the first and allow us some flexibility in the 2nd or allow us to trade back up (doubtful in my mind) to pick another potential game changer that might be falling.

Solid logic.

I wanted Elliot also, but the more I read about him and party city, I hope we pass & go WR or DE

I believe the answer to which positions hold the most value lies in existing NFL salaries. I believe it would be obvious to conclude that the hardest positions to fill would be reflected in the salaries paid by position.

Looking at it from that perspective, it's a simple matter of supply and demand. We can also look at draft history over the past ten years or so and look at the priority teams put on positions high in the draft. At least to some extent.

RB's seem to be a position that teams do well answering without huge investments.

But when it comes to QB's, pass rush specialists, LT's, and CB's, we've seen a lot of investments not only in FA contracts, but in draft investments. To some degree we have seen it in WR's, but only when they are considered elite talent which is rarer than many people think.

I also agree with you about impact players over bodies. Sure impact players can be found later, but as the facts point out, your odds of finding those impact players is greatly reduced once you drop to a certain point. If people wish to see a prime example of what it looks like to have bodies rather than impact players, they need only look at our current roster.

I've been operating under that assumption, but it probably varies amongst the different front offices. It would make the most sense to me if they did factor a position's importance into their analysis.

I'm not sure how much that would play into the draft as opposed to overall roster makeup/money invested, though.

That's a very good point the better foundation we have, the less chance that we're going to be picking at the top of the draft.

I would suggest though that you don't have to have superstars if the majority of the team is above average and when you get to that point is when you sell the farm to get major difference makers whether through free agency (very hard) or the draft.

I think there's examples of it being done both ways, I just think you minimize your chances for failure when you're increasing your on base percentage instead of swinging for the fences each time up. (Like that Moneyball analogy?)

@ pick #8

Designated pass rusher 1 (RDE/ROLB) = Bosa

Left tackle = Tunsil, Stanley they'll play RT now but would be the heir apparent to JT

Left cornerback = Ramsey

Vernon Hargreaves ? To early at 8? This is where evaluation and rankings come in to play.

WR1= None

Defensive tackle = Deforest Bucker, I would argue he has higher positional value because of his ability to rush the passer as 34 DE

Running back = Zeke. This is where BPA comes in. I think Crow/Duke could be more productive with a scheme more committed to running BUT Zeke imo is a much better prospect and would instantly be the best RB on the roster. Polian and some other real draft experts consider him the only true elite prospect in this draft class.


My board for pick #8 (even though I would prefer to trade down because I feel there aren't as many 'elite' prospects at the top of this draft and players from 8 down don't have considerable separation from each other.

(1) Bosa
(2) Tunsil, Stanley
(3) Ramsey
(4) D. Buckner
(5) Zeke

How would you feel about doing this?

Move to 15 and take Treadwell (WR Top 5 Impact)

Take whoever is left from the list above at 32. (Pass Rusher Top 5 Impact)

Damn I want Tenny's 33rd pick.

Henry RB. (Not Top 5 Impact)
Spriggs OT (Not Top 5 Impact)

Is there a CB worth 33? (Top 5 Impact) Apple?

Be nice to hit 3 of the Top 5 Impacts with 15, 32 and 33. Leaving QB and LT.

I can't say for sure, but I don't see how they couldn't. Just like the list you posted and my comment about wanting to see how Depo values each position.

All positions can impact a game, but some positions have a higher percentage chance of impacting a game in a positive manner. That is why QB is at the top of everybodys list. They have that chance on virtually every offensive play.

Stetson - I think you are alluding to a point i was going to make - that at the end of the day it's a numbers game. Successful drafting is partially luck. Even some of the GM's who are recognized as the 'best' miss often. Add to that factor a coach like Belichick - he never drafts high but has found impact players.

I have heard many 'experts' - media heads and front office personnel state that your chances of finding talent increases with the number of draft picks you have.

Regards to Impact Positions vs 'Guys' (that's a more accurate reflection of the original article) ... Sure every team wants a Franchise QB and recognizes it's the most important position on the team - but you can't simply say the Browns should stay at 2 because we don't have a Franchise QB on the team - and the theory is we HAVE to have one -- therefore we HAVE to take a chance on Wentz. . . . that logic is doomed to fail.

Once you grade your players - you adjust and add weight to your grades based on the position they play - and your board gets adjusted some. I don't think anyone argues that if you have equal grades on players at different positions, you put the player playing the most critical position highter ... but if Wentz doesn't get a grade as a franchise QB, and others are rated way ahead of him - you simply do not take him "just coz" ... and if you think there are significant upgrades to the current roster to be had in the middle rounds - and there are enough guys you feel are top talent - you can absolutely drop back to a slot where you project players you like will be available.

Absolutely you can't end up with an enormous amount of average "guys" - no-one is drafting just to add bodies. The plan is that with adding picks in a portion of the draft where you think quality starters can be found, increasing the number of picks increases your chances of finding impact players, regardless of the position they play.

At this point I am happy to trade back another 5-7 spots - or take a player at 8....

Another angle/adjustment --- which has been mentioned plenty in relation to Zeke this last 2 weeks. . . . the number of times a player has a chance influences a game makes a difference too.

With Zeke I keep hearing or reading how RB position has been devalued it today's game. That RB's just aren't taken high any more ... then they talk about how Zeke is a 3 down back. How he can influence so much of every play - running, pass blocking and catching ... then they say how hard it is to pass on an elite talent that can be part of so many offensive plays.

Good point. I looked it up to see:




http://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-highest-paid-positions-2014-9

That is something I have been struggling with, as well. I am not quite sure how they should go about it, but I do know that impact players affect the game in a huge way.

Again, I go back to Denver's playoff run last year. Their offense was substandard, but damn if they didn't have two true impact edge rushers and a dominant cornerback who could cover Antonio Brown one week and Gronk the next.

I also think the WR position is now way more valuable than it used to be. I remember in the early 2000's and the Browns were always taking WR's high. I was old school and hated the idea of it. However, as we know, the game has changed and the chart about how often teams are playing nickel now and how that percentage is increasing each year, shows the importance of having excellent WRs and corners.

We also know that the best way to stop a high powered passing attack is to pressure the qb. See Denver against Tom Brady and Cam Newton.

Again.........the guys in the FO get paid big money to find these guys. I am hoping that we can get 2-4 guys fairly early in the draft at these positions:

QB--------just added this because if we trade down a bit...Lynch might be a legit option.

Pass rusher: Always my number 1 need for the Browns.

WR: Need a guy who can put pressure on the defense. Game changer.

CB: Gotta defend all these high-powered offenses.

I am not w/you on the tackle thing. I think Joe has multiple years left. I do not want the Browns to use a first or second round pick on a guy who will be playing RT for the next 5 years or so.

*Note: I am opposed to drafting a RB in the first or second rounds. There are just so many good RBs available in a multitude of venues. However, Zeke is a very rare guy. Kinda like a Marshall Faulk in that he can do everything. Not saying I would be thrilled w/the pick, but he really could be an impact player.

I like your thinking, but it is hard for me to add much because I am fairly ignorant regarding trade values. Thus, it's hard for me to say what we could get in a trade. That murky area is one that leave up to you guys.

I will say this...........NO WAY do I want the Browns to draft Henry in the first or second round. Heck, I would take him in the top 4 rounds. Not saying he sucks, but he is not elite. I will be extremely upset if the Browns use such a high pick on any RB other than Zeke, and I am only luke-warm on taking Zeke. I don't really want us to take Zeke, but I could understand it.

I definitely like getting a pass rusher and WR, though. I really do think the Browns also need to upgrade the cornerback spot. I think Hargreaves is a very underrated guy. Also, I think this cb class is pretty darn good overall.

Here are two guys I don't want that are fairly high on some boards. The two Fullers.

Fuller........the WR from Notre Dame. Very fast and big play guy, but body catcher. Poor route runner. Too many drops.

Fuller........the cb from VA Tech. Great lineage, but man, this guy gets torched over the top.

I already read that. The draft starts today. That doesn't mean he hasn't been involved in setting boards and implementing the process. Sashi has been making the moves, but Depo is strategy office. You can bet his imprint is all over the moves to trade back and add additional picks.

I agree. Mac wanted to make it sound like Depo has had no input concerning the draft up to this point. He is the strategy officer. If we trade back in to the first for Cook, many might complain we didn't need to move up. What they don't get is that by moving up back in to the 1st round, you gain a 5th year on the contract. Very valuable, especially when you plan to sit a guy for a year or two.

What playmakers? We don't HAVE any playmakers for an offensive line to give oppurtunities to. Noe. Nada. Not ONE weapon on this team that puts fear into anyone. But sure playmakers are easy to find so lets not bother trying. they will magically appear after we draft another Center in the first.

Alright. Since playmakers are SO easy to find and RB's are a dime a dozen. etc. Name the RB we can select in the 4th round or later that will definitely rush for 1400+ yards and double digit TD's this year. I'm waiting. Since it is SO easy to find guys like that we should be able to have more than one on the roster...... If great running backs are so damned easy to find, how come the Browns haven't had one since LEROY KELLY!

Are you talking to me?

No. Mostly EO but a lot of posters have been saying that tripe forever. If it's so fricken easy to find a stud RB then why haven't we had one since Leroy Kelly. I watched Kelly run when I was a kid. Not old enough to have seen Brown live. LONG time since we've ahd great there. Long time since we've had great at any skill position. QB? Kosar and that's pushing the term a bit. RB? Kelly. WR? Man, I'd have to say Warfield..... Sure would be nice to change that someday. ONLY great player since the return? JT and he's getting a bit long in the tooth. He's still great but he won't be by the time this team is ready to roll even IF they do this right....

I am in agreement that we shouldn't be trading down over and over for average we should be shooting for GREAT if possible. Pass rusher, RB whatever. I'd be cool with a LT as long as he's great like JT. But moving down again would bug me.

Also I absolutely agree with the article that WR is now one of the top positions. In this modern NFL that I despise by the way, if a DB even looks at a WR he's flagged and then fined. There was a time that only the bravest WR would go over the middle.... No longer. Scoring is WAY up and the people doing that scoring are WR's RB's and to a lesser extent TE's.

None?

I know a Mack, Byner, 2 Pruits and a Lewis that would disagree with that.

Um, I would say that Mack, Byner, and Mike and Greg Pruit were all very good backs for the Browns. Never saw Kelly; however, you cannot plop Lewis in with the first four because he was not great or even very good with us. Overall in his career that may be an arguable point, but not as a member of the Browns.