DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2016 NFL Season 2016 NFL Draft Third Round Pick - QB Cody Kessler

I haven't had a chance to really pay attention, and honestly, I'm not sure I'd fully trust my own assessment, but... how quick is his release?

Does he get rid of the ball quick, or does he have a long, slow wind-up?

I don't think I'd run the same offense for Kessler as I would RG3. It would not be a vertical offense. It would be more like the offense that we ran last year with McCown.

And while his escapability is good, I don't think that he throws on the run very well.

Not the end of the world, but I'm still surprised this is Hue's guy.

Also, thought this was an interesting report. Mentions some of the things I see, and has a major red flag: regression in 2015. Also, I just read that he only completed 16 of 56 over 20 yards, that is concerning. I like reading about his smarts, and according to this, he has an ability to read coverages. I also read that he's a "first in, last to leave" kind of guy. The big knocks seem to be size (which we've seen overcome by the likes of Wilson) arm strength on deep balls, and poise under pressure. He definitely has some issues to overcome if he's going to be successful, but it sounds as if he may be willing to work hard to get there.

PFF Scouting Report:

Position fit: Backup QB. Will need to prove he can overcome physical limitations.

Stats to know: +39.4 passing grade in 2014 was second in the nation, behind only Marcus Mariota. 2015 grade was only good enough for 20th.

What he does best:
• Accuracy. Had an accuracy percentage of 78.2, third-highest in the draft class, and higher than any of the top prospects.
• Executes from a clean pocket extremely well. Over past two seasons has thrown just seven interceptions on 635 passing attempts with no pressure, completing 73.5 percent of his passes.
• He is smart. Able to diagnose coverage, throw with anticipation and get the ball where it needs to go at the right time.
• Throws deep. For a player with an average arm at best, Kessler threw just one pick on deep passes this past season and had a 7:1 TD:INT ratio on deep (20+ air yards) passes.

Biggest concern:
• Arm strength. If Carson Wentz is at the high end of the arm-talent spectrum this season, Kessler is towards the other end of the scale. He doesn’t have an outright noodle, but his game needs to be more about anticipation and smarts than arm strength.
• 2015 regression. Kessler’s 2014 grade was the best of this draft class, and right up there with Marcus Mariota. Had he improved this season he would have had a grade rivaling Goff, but instead he took a major step backwards and looked markedly worse for USC. That raises a big red flag and is something of a worry.
• Inconsistent under pressure. At times, Kessler can navigate a cluttered pocket and look very good. At others the blinkers come down and he gets spooked, taking off to space and failing to slide away from the traffic and stay within the pocket.
• Average measurables at best. Standing 6-foot-1 and weighing 220 pounds at the combine, and won’t get plus points for his athleticism.

Bottom line: Cody Kessler showed a lot of promise in 2014, but the drop in his play this season is a concern. He doesn’t fit the ideal measurable profile teams look for, but has shown the ability to overcome his relative lack of arm talent with high-level pocket passing ability. He is an accurate passer with the ability to throw with anticipation and reliability, but other aspects of his game have been more hit and miss. If he is going to succeed at the NFL level he needs to be able to succeed in the face of pressure consistently rather than sporadically, and eliminate the lows in his game, because he won’t receive the same chances as a higher-rated prospect.

Link

Looks like Hue really looks for accuracy in QB's. Doesn't seem to be too blown away with arm size. Judging from the off season.

I'm not going to wallow in the mud over a slight reach for a backup qb/prospect. It is what it is. A 3rd rd pick who many had going in late rd's. The Browns where going to take a QB this draft and Hue pulled the trigger on Cody.

*Trusting Hue*

The regression from 2014 to 2015 doesn't worry me at all. Instead, it makes me ask two questions:

1. In what way(s) did he regress? Is it him, or just statistically?

2. Why did he have that regression? Was it a change in offense with having yet another new coach?


Answer those questions satisfactorily, then you can have an idea of whether or not the regression is actually something to worry about, or if it is perhaps the Red Herring that allowed him to fall to where we picked him.... because if he was rated with Goff after 2014, then he *should* have (conceivably) been picked Top 10.

I agree, maybe in 2015 the team around him just wasn't as good.

I don't understand why so many act like the QB plays in a bubble, Football is the ultimate team sport

I was hoping to find an answer to this question but didn't have any luck.

Well, he played three years and had four coaches. Probably three different offenses. It's the kind of thing the Browns have done to QBs. It doesn't help them much.

Then why the speedster WR over Treadwell?

Just when I think I have Hue figured out he does the opposite like Costanza.

Yeah, I'm sure that had a lot to do with it. The "fall off" is interesting when you look at the stats:

2014 - 3826yds @ 315 for 452, 69.7% completions & 39 TDs & 5 INTs

-vs-

2015 - 3536yds $ 298 for 446, 66.8% completions & 29 TDs & 7 INTs

I'd take a "fall off" year like that from any of our QBs any time.

I get a kick out of you's guys talking your selves into this with all the rationalization ! Lol

In 2014, the OC was Clay Helton, the guy who became the HC in 2015 and is a first-time HC. The 2014 WR coach became the 2015 OC while holding onto WR Coaching duties. They had a new OL Coach for 2015, and Clay Helton brought in his brother Tyson Helton from Western Kentucky Univ. to be the new QB coach for 2015.



That's quite enough for me to think that there is a reasonable chance that the regression (yet unquantified) wasn't him. Also, if you look at his stats, you can see a regression, but it is minimal. He threw fewer TD's, and a few more INT's... completions were down, as were YPA, but all of those things could EASILY be scheme, blocking, WR's/drops.... or any and all of the above.

The kid will be interesting to watch; see who the real Kessler is.

Weapon for McCown, or RG3. You don't pick a 1st rd WR to groom with a QB prospect. BTW Kessler throws deep with accuracy.

I don't see it as talking ourselves into it; I see it as trying to see what they saw - to look beyond the simplistic of simply following what the sheep herders at ESPN and the draft sites tell everyone is the proper thing to think.

For me it's more about accepting the things I cannot change. He's here, Wentz is in Philly, ain't $#!% I can do about it. And that doesn't change the fact that Kessler has some intriguing things to watch out for. Besides, what else do we have to do with our time? I have the feeling the kid will either surprise the hell out of everyone, or fail under NFL defensive pressure. It'll be interesting to watch either way.

Not at 16 for 56 over 20yds, he doesn't.

With a stat like that, this is almost guaranteed to be true, but, again, that depends upon the WHY.

Were a lot of those deep balls actually throwaways?
How many were drops?
How many were passes defended?

Stats only show a meaningless measurement with zero context. You have to give it context for it to have meaning.

J/C

LA Times story from Nov 2015

http://www.latimes.com/sports/usc/la-sp-usc-football-20151110-story.html

I look at the list of players we could have had by staying at 77 insted of going down to 93 and kinda scratch my head ..



13 76 Cleveland
(from Los Angeles through Tennessee) Shon Coleman T Jr Auburn
14 77 Carolina
(from Detroit through Philadelphia,Cleveland) Daryl Worley CB Jr West Virginia
15 78 New England
(from New Orleans) Joe Thuney G Sr North Carolina State
16 79 Philadelphia Isaac Seumalo G Jr Oregon State
17 80 Buffalo Adolphus Washington DT Sr Ohio State
18 81 Atlanta Austin Hooper TE So Stanford
19 82 Indianapolis Le'Raven Clark T Sr Texas Tech
20 83 NY Jets Jordan Jenkins LB Sr Georgia
21 84 Washington Kendall Fuller CB Jr Virginia Tech
22 85 Houston Braxton Miller WR Sr Ohio State
23 86 Miami
(from Minnesota) Leonte Carroo WR Sr Rutgers
24 87 Cincinnati Nick Vigil LB Jr Utah State
25 88 Green Bay Kyler Fackrell LB Sr Utah State
26 89 Pittsburgh Javon Hargrave DT Sr South Carolina State
27 90 Seattle C.J. Prosise RB Sr Notre Dame
28 Kansas City Choice Forfeited - Violation of anti-tampering rules (Jeremy Maclin)
29 91 New England Jacoby Brissett QB Sr North Carolina State
30 92 Arizona Brandon Williams CB Sr Texas A&M
31 93 Cleveland
(from Carolina) Cody Kessler QB Sr USC

That Ju Ju Shchuster looks like an absolute stud on film.

Why?
It's just a bunch of names.

3rd round pick for a backup QB prospect shouldn't be a cause for dissent. This pick is barley a reach. If he doesn't work out nobody will remember Kessler around here after a couple years.

I've seen him throw nice deep balls, it's just that the numbers don't back up the statement that he's an accurate deep ball thrower.

Purp, I get your point, but 56 passes are a decent sampling. I'm sure the numbers reflect drops, inaccuracies, pressures and passes defended, but he has such a high degree of accuracy overall that the deep ball numbers seem more that just an anomaly, or a skewed stat due to circumstance.

Worst pick in recent memory, including JFF and Gilbert.

No dissent, argument or stand taking. Just a discussion.

A little early to make that statement. Try it again in a couple years when he's sitting alone in a bar in Columbus drinking a beer and watching the draft while Tweeting about how he's always done it that way.

well, at least we're not easily given to hyperbole... so we've all got that going for us.

The JFF and Gilbert picks were better than the Kessler pick. Manziel and Gilbert had a high grades on draft day (many, if not most teams were wrong).

I can't believe teams had a third round grade on Kessler.

LOL!

So, because a bunch of nobodies graded them higher, they were better picks, despite the fact that they are both complete and utter busts - and anyone that looked at their character could (and did) predict it?

We clearly had at least a 3rd round grade on him... that's all that matters.

Sounds like sour grapes to me.

Food for thought.







2016





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http://blogs.ourlads.com/2016/03/02/quarterback-ball-velocity-at-nfl-combine-2008-2015/

Because QB's can be accurate deep without having a cannon? And just because a WR is a speedster doesn't mean he only runs fly routes.

j/c:

The sheep are out in full force on this thread. Convincing themselves that this guy is the real deal because their sheep herder said to trust him.

It's funny, because w/all the qb conversations that dominated the discussion on this board, I don't remember you guys talking about Kessler at all. Not even in the last couple of rounds. There was one guy who brought him up, but he was quickly shot down. LOL

They'll remember him as the backup to the guy we draft with the first pick in the 2017 draft.

Eh, it's hard to get to all of the players, especially late round guys. Even more so when you're predicted to take one of the top guys. That's typically where all of the concentration goes when you're predicted to take a 1st round QB.


His physical tools are definitely underwhelming. He looks like a good college QB and an extremely productive one under adverse circumstances. That doesn't mean he will be anything in the NFL.

How does it matter, at all, in any way, whether or not anyone brought him up pre-draft? Unless you're driven by some insane brownie point system where you think folks are actually keeping score and care - it doesn't.

He's here now, so we discuss him now.... and that means trying to figure out why he went where he did; why he was valued so low by the pundits, and why he was valued higher by the Browns.

If you're not interested in understanding any of that, that's fine, that's your deal, but don't project your issues onto other people.

Point out one post where anyone said he was the "real deal." You always want everyone to prove it, and to not state their opinions as fact, so please, enlighten me where anyone said he is the "real deal." People think he can be a decent QB. Sure, he was drafted earlier than what most people thought he should be. So was Blake Bortles and now a lot of people see him as a franchise QB. Different situations, but so what if he was "overdrafted." We didn't take him early. He was our 5th selection of the draft.

The "we could have got him later" crowd is hilarious.

We don't know what any NFL team draft board looked like.

The Patriots have built a dynasty on picks that don't fit Mel Kiper projections.

If Hue identified this as his guy, don't try to get cute and try to get him later. If he's truly your guy, reach on him and make sure you get him.

We can have our opinions on the pick, but I'm just happy we went into the draft with a plan and executed it.

This wasn't the circus of years past where we got caught with our pants down and just took the guy "experts" had raged highest -- That's how you end up with Manziel and Weeden lol.

We had our board and we stuck with our board and said to hell with what Anyone thought about it -- And THAT is what I'm happy with.