Depends on who they choose, Watson is ok although I would take Trubisky over him, or if they get a day one starter I would be ok with that too ...
John 3:16 Jesus said "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life."
If Trub is there at 12, and we snag someone else.. how upset will some of you be?
I'd be so happy that I might have to join a Church just to find an acceptable venue to celebrate at. Nothing makes you believe more when you just narrowly dodged a bullet.
+1, I believe in these guys, they do the backround checks, and are paid to make the judgements....Howard would not displease me IF they thought he was best way to help team...GO Browns!!!!
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I can't get over the fact that Watson only throws 49mph. I never heard of this stat but I like it. Picture an out pattern in the Pro's and the ball gets there a heartbeat later. He threw a lot of ints in college so what will happen when he moves to the NFL?
I can't get over the fact that Watson only throws 49mph. I never heard of this stat but I like it. Picture an out pattern in the Pro's and the ball gets there a heartbeat later. He threw a lot of ints in college so what will happen when he moves to the NFL?
Is it a fact though? How much do you know about those numbers to accept it as a factual representation of velocity?
From looking at all his picks they seem more a function of decision making then velocity.
They weren't asking the QBs to throw as hard as the could they were asking the QBs to throw accurate completions. Watson had arguably the best throwing session at the combine, but some other guys were throwing short, high, wide but were putting up high velocity numbers.
The post below also has a very strong dissenting opinion of those numbers from Greg Gabriel #1247212 - 03/15/17 08:45 PM:
Also, NFL teams take their draft scouting and research seriously. I would bet they have a way to get velocity numbers based on actual throws in actual games using sports science type technology not some radar gun with an unknown standard margin of error of X mph when not all the QBs are throwing as hard as they can.
I would be surprised if every team didn't have every throw recorded with a radar gun.
? At the combine? The further you are away from the target you measure the less accurate using a radar to measure baseball velocity (which is much more standardized then at combine throwing out routes) is already has a variance of ~2mph.
I think if teams want to know actual velocity they can easily calculate using sports science similar to:
That would be much more accurate then they way they currently measure it at the combine.
I would be surprised if every team didn't have every throw recorded with a radar gun.
?
I think it's so difficult to find the procedure, the how, when, and where, for the throwing velocity numbers, because the NFL teams have all the throws recorded, and we're only seeing one of the numbers, or maybe an average. That's why you won't find anyone giving a definitive answer on when and where the ball was thrown. To me it doesn't make sense for them to only have 1 attempt with a radar gun. I can't imagine them just tossing the radar gun away after they recorded their number. You know? I would imagine they use the radar gun on pretty much every ball thrown by the QB's during the combine.
I also think you're right on the latter part. If 49 mph was such a knock, we'd actually be hearing about it, outside off these forums and armchair GM's.
Quickly ... The Browns select Trubisky @ 1 what is your immediate reaction?
John 3:16 Jesus said "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life."
John 3:16 Jesus said "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life."
I would be surprised if every team didn't have every throw recorded with a radar gun.
?
I think it's so difficult to find the procedure, the how, when, and where, for the throwing velocity numbers, because the NFL teams have all the throws recorded, and we're only seeing one of the numbers, or maybe an average. That's why you won't find anyone giving a definitive answer on when and where the ball was thrown. To me it doesn't make sense for them to only have 1 attempt with a radar gun. I can't imagine them just tossing the radar gun away after they recorded their number. You know? I would imagine they use the radar gun on pretty much every ball thrown by the QB's during the combine.
Like I said I've been keeping an eye on those numbers for awhile. I posted the link to the audio. Some of the questions you're asking/speculating about are answered in the interview with Dane Bruegler. The skinny is they are recorded on the field during the throwing sessions and measured by radar on throws like the out route. So, the QBs get more then 1 throw but at the same time they aren't throwing specifically for velocity. They're throwing for accuracy and placement.
Quote:
I also think you're right on the latter part. If 49 mph was such a knock, we'd actually be hearing about it, outside off these forums and armchair GM's.
Yeah, I doubt any evaluators think Watson's max velocity is 49 mph. And I still maintain for as important as NFL teams take the draft scouting and evaluation I think they can easily hire some science dude to calculate the velocity to a high % of accuracy from game film.
OBR Draft Series: Could Mitchell Trubisky be the Browns next 1st round quarterback?
Fred Greetham
Sunday at 5:02 PM
Will Mentor's Mitchell Trubisky be the next Browns quarterback?
(As it stands now, the Browns have the first and 12th overall picks in the upcoming NFL Draft as well as the top pick (33rd) in the second-round. We've taken a consensus of the majority of mock drafts and will profile the players that have been most associated with the Browns in the upcoming draft.)
Mitchell Trubisky (6-2 1/8, 222) Quarterback Trubisky is scheduled to work out with the Browns in Berea on Friday.
What experts are saying about Trubisky's strengths:
Trubisky was described by Pro Football Weeky this way: "Ideal size for an NFL quarterback. Has really good athletic, ability with speed, quick feet and change of direction. Very strong arm. Can make all the NFL type throws. Shows good accuracy and ball placement...Has a quick overhand delivery and throws a tight ball. Generally, a good decision maker."
Pro Football Focus summarized what Trubisky does best this way: "Compact, accurate, quick arm with a three-quarters release...Quick release allows him to get rid of the ball even when under heavy pressure...Polished passer with consistent footwork and mechanics...Athletic within and outside the pocket. Very accurate throwing on the move...Anticipates well on timing routes as well as windows in zone coverage...Quick-minded and reacts quickly from the time he sees it to time of release...Discipline with his reads and shows ability to scan the field in full field progressions...Natural feel and instincts in the pocket...Consistently accurate ball placement in the short passing game maximizing catch and run opportunities...Has the arm to drive the ball outside the numbers. Consistently hits the “cover-2” hole in between the cornerback and the safety, much more often than most college quarterbacks...Values the ball and is a good decision maker."
The description sounds like something Hue Jackson would like.
"There's no substitute for arm talent," Jackson said at the NFL Combine. "There's no substitute, can a guy really process what they're trying to accomplish and then can it fit into the National Football League. I think we all know it's been tough trying to evaluate that position because it's so different in college than what it is in the National Football League, but those things won't change. I think there's a couple of key characteristics that you've got to have. Can you throw? Can you process? Can you lead your team? Those are three very fundamental things that I think will show itself from a college quarterback."
ESPN Draft Analyst Todd McShay gave his synopsis after Trubisky's Pro Day: "The anticipation he throws with, the quick feet you see on tape, and just hitting spots in the short, intermediate and down the field in terms of all three phases of the game, I just thought it was a really indicative workout of what you see on tape and I just think he's a more natural passer as I mentioned than Deshaun Watson.
"Now, Watson is 32-3 as a starter and played in two national championships and threw for 825 in two games against Alabama. There's a lot more to work off of there, but if you're just looking at the two in terms of natural passing skills, I give Trubisky the edge."
What experts are saying are Trubisky's weaknesses:
Pro Football Focus listed the biggest concerns for Trubisky, starting with the obvious that he started just one season or 13 games: "One-year starter with limited amount of game tape...Inconsistent deep ball touch. Ball hangs and forces receivers to adjust too often...Poor blitz recognition at times leaving him surprised where defenders are coming from post snap...Feet/mind can start to move too quickly under pressure leading to inaccuracies...Can get stuck on the spot in the pocket with feet bouncing instead of pushing up in the pocket...Will overstride getting too long resulting in lost power at times when needing to drive the ball downfield."
What Trubisky is saying: At his Pro Day at North Carolina last week, Trubisky said he can be the leader an NFL team wants.
“Once you get to know me and you sit down with me, you start to pick my brain, I’ll pick yours, and you just know that I’m a football guy,” Trubisky said. “I love the game, I’m a student of the game, I’m a very quick learner. I am that guy you want in that locker room. I am that guy you want to lead your franchise.”
How Trubisky fits with the Browns: Trubisky threw for 3,748 yards, including 30 touchdowns and six interceptions in 13 starts last season, completing 68.2 percent of his passes. With the release of Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown, the Browns current quarterback situation is murky, at best.
The Browns traded for Brock Osweiler, but do not seem to be interested in keeping him around and thus far, the Browns have not brought in any veteran quarterbacks through free agency or via trade, thus leaving second-year quarterbacks Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan on the roster. The Browns are expected to draft a quarterback (or maybe two), but it is not known if they plan on playing him immediately or having him sit until he has to play due to injury.
Trubisky grew up and played high school football at Mentor High School and Jackson said one of the keys is figuring out if a hometown kid can handle the pressure that goes along with playing quarterback in the NFL.
"Oh yeah, I think all those things are important," Jackson said. "Because you have to understand. Some guys play better when they are at home, some guys don't. We would have to know all those things. And we'll do the digging on all these guys that way, to find out can they really matriculate to the National Football League and still play at a high level and understand the demands of playing the position, especially for the Cleveland Browns.
Bottom line: PFF boiled it down to this on Trubisky: "Despite being a one-year starter, Trubisky is very polished as a passer playing with good balance and consistent mechanics, which leads him to throw with great accuracy in the short/intermediate passing game. Although he comes from a version of the spread in his college offense, he was asked to do many full field progressions and showed he can click from receiver to receiver quickly and efficiently.
"Has very good pocket instincts and ability to keep eye level up to see receivers down the field while moving within the pocket. His three-quarters release may lead to more batted balls at the LOS but is likely not a huge issue at the next level. Will need to work on hitting his deep shots with more consistent accuracy to keep defenses from sitting at the break point. Shows all of the tools to develop into a very solid NFL starting quarterback and appears to be the safest option of the 2017 quarterback draft class."
Pro Football Focus ranks Trubisky as the top quarterback in this year's draft class and the 10th overall player available in the draft. If the Browns agree with Pro Football Focus about him being the next Browns candidate for franchise quarterback, they need to draft him and not worry about the draft position. If they feel the difference between the top quarterbacks is not enough to make a difference, then they can wait for their pick at 12 or 33.
I found it interesting that Garoppolo, who is so much of the QB conversation here, is not listed in this study...Brissett is, Edelman is, but JG is nowhere to be found.
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The "study" only did college QBs from FBS because he couldn't track down the data for the other divisions needed to make adjustments based upon the competition and surrounding talent. At least, I think that was the reasoning from the quick read through I did.
I am somewhat curious as to how the adjustments work. It kind of looks like Watson got punished a lot for being on a good team, and apparently the ACC competition boosted a bunch of the other ACC QBs. They might also have gotten boosts from having "bad" surrounding talent. It mentioned using draft position for players in these adjustments, but I'm not sure how that works for this class since the draft hasn't taken place yet.
You mess with the "Bull," you get the horns. Fiercely Independent.
This is really interesting. I like that he gives an explanation for how and why he is doing things. It is also interesting that his stat correlates with the best QBs in the league. The author also seems to have a background in statistical research, so this is better than some of the cockamamie stats that have been posted on here before.
As the article states, one should be skeptical of college stats when evaluating QBs (and every other position), but having a stat that normalizes performance along with an evaluation by scouts is very valuable. I like what the author of the article is trying to do and I bet our front office is doing/has done something similar with college stats.
There is a big tell to see if a someone likes or dislikes the QB and it is the anticipation throw….
Throwing with anticipation is more on the ability of the WR to run precise routs and the QB’s accuracy. There is no such thing of throwing with great anticipation, that is just absurd, especially when you say that, and then you say one of the weaknesses is that the QB has inconsistent deep ball and that the receivers have to make adjustments.
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
This is really interesting. I like that he gives an explanation for how and why he is doing things. It is also interesting that his stat correlates with the best QBs in the league. The author also seems to have a background in statistical research, so this is better than some of the cockamamie stats that have been posted on here before.
As the article states, one should be skeptical of college stats when evaluating QBs (and every other position), but having a stat that normalizes performance along with an evaluation by scouts is very valuable. I like what the author of the article is trying to do and I bet our front office is doing/has done something similar with college stats.
I know everybody said Jerod Evans stunk it up at the combine, but after watching tape he was my sleeper for best QB of this class. I would love to get him late just to see.
"At this point, any other American business with this many failures would have outsourced its evaluations of quarterbacks to a group of analysts in Vienna"
Didn't we outsource the QB evaluation the year he was our GM?
Thoughts after reading: Is he looking for a QB or a boyfriend? Very little to do with football imo.
"At this point, any other American business with this many failures would have outsourced its evaluations of quarterbacks to a group of analysts in Vienna"
Didn't we outsource the QB evaluation the year he was our GM?
Thoughts after reading: Is he looking for a QB or a boyfriend? Very little to do with football imo.
I am all in on Mahomes at 12. If Hue is the QB whisperer then he needs to whisper in this kids ear. He isnt a year one starter but go with Brock and Cody this year and get Mahomes ready for next.
1. DE Myles Garrett 1b. QB Pat Mahomes 2. WR Corey Davis He hasnt worked out for anyone he will fall to the 2nd. 2b. S Budda Baker deep safety and corner class push him down 3. RB Joe Mixon I think the Browns are one of about 4 teams willing to take him, I wouldnt do it but i think they will.
OO BTW growing rumor that the 49ers and Panthers working on a trade, 49ers sliding down to take Trubisky. Panthers want Fournette, man i really missed on how teams see Fournette.
OO BTW growing rumor that the 49ers and Panthers working on a trade, 49ers sliding down to take Trubisky. Panthers want Fournette, man i really missed on how teams see Fournette.
If the Panthers are trying to get to 2, it's for Solomon Thomas.
Just read this and since u guys were on the subject i went back for this ... not that it really means anything at this time of year ...
Christian McCaffrey - RB - Player
NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reports the Panthers, Broncos and Redskins "loom" for Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey to the Panthers at No. 8 has been the rumor du jour the past few days, while he was previously linked to the Broncos at No. 20. The Redskins at No. 17 are new. There have been multiple recent reports that McCaffrey could go in the top 10, but it still seems a little far-fetched. There's no question all three teams badly need running back help. Related: Panthers, Broncos, Redskins Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter Apr 6 - 2:32 PM
Guess this is irrelivent to your convo .. they ain't moving up for him ... *L* ...
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