DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2017 NFL Season 2017 NFL Draft Which prospects were you wrong about? (Boom or Bust)

Who I thought would Boom:
- Matt Leinart QB USC 2006: I remember being shocked when Leinart fell as far as he did. I was praying he'd drop one more spot to us at 11 but Arizona snatched him up at 10. Coming out of college I thought he was the next Joe Montana. He ended up playing 7 seasons (3 of which ended with season ending injuries and 2 in which he never played a down) finishing with 14 TD's and 21 INT's with a 70.1 rating.

-Brady Quinn QB ND 2007: We all know the story. Favorite team growing up, taught in a pro-style offense by the former OC of Tom Brady, most compared to Brady, was talk of taking him at 3 and he drops to #22 which we trade up to; we just got Joe Thomas and Brady Quinn, we're set for years! A long holdout, losing out on the starting job to DA and then when given the chance to start he was mediocre at best. We jettisoned him after 3 seasons. He lasted 5 more years with 3 different teams seeing action in only one season. He finished his career with 12 TD's 17 INT's and a 64.4 QB rating.

-Keith Rivers LB USC 2008: I thought he was a sure thing, someone that would give the Bengals a dominant presence at LB. Hines Ward crushed his jaw with a blind-side hit ending his rookie season and beginning a string of injuries which would cause a lack in quality of play and derailing his career. He lasted 3 years with the Bengals, 2 years with the Giants before retiring his first day of camp with the Cowboys. He finished his career with 178 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF and 1 INT.

-Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest 2009: Was also praying he'd drop to us at #5 but the Seahawks picked him at #4. I expected him to be what Von Miller is today. Turns out he was just a physical freak who couldn't wrap his head around the game and it's speed. He lasted 3 years in Seattle (being benched his 3rd season after two starts by a 4th round rookie) before being traded to the Raiders for a 7th round pick. He was out of football 2 years later finishing with 163 tackles, 5.5 sacks 4 FF and 0 INT's in 5 seasons.

- Trent Richardson RB Alabama 2012: Was certain he was the next Peterson and the safest pick in this draft. He was going to take the focus off of us not having a QB by establishing a terrific run game. He rushed for 950 yards and 11 TD's in his rookie season and looked to be poised for a breakout sophomore season. When we traded him after 2 games for a 1st round pick I was furious figuring this is why we would always be bad (they later proved my point by selecting Manziel with this pick). Little did I know the front office knew something I didn't. He played in less than 2 seasons for the Colts before he was cut. As their lead back for two seasons he ran for 977 yards and 6 TD's with an AVG of 3.1 yards per carry. He has spent the past 2 seasons in training camp for the Raiders and Ravens but has been cut by both before the start of the season.

-Justin Blackmon WR OK-ST 2012: The talent was undeniable but if you think Josh Gordon can't get out of his own way, meet Justin Blackmon. Coming out of Oklahoma State, the only major question about Blackmon was his attitude and possible baggage. I believed he was going to keep his nose clean and be the next TO. He showed flashes his rookie year (including a 7 reception 236 yard game against Houston) finishing with 865 yards and 5 TD's. However the following season Blackmon was suspended the first 4 games for a violation of the substance abuse policy as well as a DUI prior to the previous season. Upon returning he had games of 5 rec and 136 yards and a TD and a 14 rec and 190 yard game. He played two more games before he was suspended the rest of the season for another violation of the substance abuse policy. The next year he was busted for possession of weed. The year after that he got another DUI. He hasn't played an NFL down since. The Jags still have him on their roster.


Who I thought would bust:
Aaron Rodgers QB CAL 2005: Jeff Tedford offense I thought he was Kyle Boller 2.0 especially with how high it was being discussed he would be drafted. I actually thought what happened was the best thing that could've happened; he went to a good team with an established veteran that would allow him to sit for multiple years and learn. He proved me wrong as he has become one of the best QB's in the league and has a super-bowl ring to boot.

Maurice Jones-Drew RB UCLA 2006: I had him pegged as no more than an undersized special teams returner. He turned 8 seasons into 3 pro bowls and a rushing title finishing with 12,001 yards from scrimmage and 79 TD's.

Marshawn Lynch RB CAL 2007: As you can see I was very skeptical of offensive players coming out of CAL. He was good, not great his first few years in Buffalo before the trade to Seattle shot him into superstardom. His first four years in Seattle produced at least 1200 yards rushing and double digit TD's in each season. Add a super bowl to boot when he could've given them 2. After a year away it appears he is once again about to suit up with Oakland.

J.J. Watt DE WISC 2011: I didn't think he was going to suck but I thought he would be just an average player not worth that high of a pick. 6 seasons and 76 sacks later he is a force to be reckoned with.

Who I thought would be good:

Justin Gilbert: Loved the pick when we made it. With Haden here. Adding a top rated physical specimen at CB was a great idea. Apparently I scouted him as much as our FO did.

Michael Crabtree: He's not bad. But nowhere near what I thought he'd be. I thought he was Megatron level. He's a solid #2 now.

Blaine Gabbert: Yep.

Who I thought would suck:

AJ Green: Maybe not "suck". But I always thought the dude was a twig and was ganna get broken in half.

Branden Weeden: Oh wait never mind.

Aaron Curry.

I still can't believe that dude didn't pan out.

Corey Lynch.

Mid/late round S out of Appalachian State. To this day I still haven't watch film as good as his. He had no exaggeration 24 interceptions in college.

Jake Locker.

Kevin White.

Nelson Agohlor.

Bishop Sankey.

Eric Ebron.

ugh.

Browns related mostly.

Akili Smith. Thought he was gonna rock the NFL!
Courtney Brown - ditto
Lee Suggs.
Kellon Winslow.... and he was good but he could have been so much more.
Manziel - didn't want him in any way shape or form. Hurt rooting for him. Liked and wanted Carr. Also liked and wanted Mack that year.

My biggest heartbreak was Brady Quinn. I would have bet the farm this kid was a franchise guy.
Next was Justin Gilbert. Was as safe and sure fire pick we ever made. Boy was I wrong!!
Trent Richardson was a close 2nd. I had this kid pegged as worth the cost and more to move up for him. What a maroon i was !!!

I liked Richardson and Gilbert. *Sigh* I have been wrong a lot.

I did not like Blackmon at all. Ditto with Leinhart.

I wanted no part of Matt Barkley, and felt that he was "Barely" an NFL prospect. I think that I can claim that I was right on that one.

Clay Matthews. I remember that year I wanted him with the pick we traded down (the Jets traded down to get Sanchez).

Bust. No one. I am right every time.

I honestly thought Manziel could be a good QB. I had no idea how big of a drug addict he was.

I loved Courntey Brown.

I pimped Everette Brown as a first rounder. ugh

I thought Ryan Shazier was a stat padder




I never liked Percy Harvin.

I told anyone who would listen how good Drew Breese was in college.

I was a big JJ Watt guy

I hated Sanchez

I know Mike Adams was a huge bust for anyone who took him.

Same for Devier Posey and Brian Robiskie





There are so many good and bad.

I really wanted Chris Johnson. I loved him at ECU. Probably the only player I've seen go from a 7th round pick to a first round pick. Once he ran the fastest 40, I knew it was over for the Browns.

I've been wrong on linebackers a bit. I liked Keuchly, but not nearly as much as I liked Curry. I also liked Dion Jordan and Alec Ogeltree a lot. I thought the Trent trade was dumb, and thought we should've picked Blackmon. I also thought we should have taken David DeCastro with our second first. Was really disappointed that class.

I thought Dee Milliner was going to be a stud and hoped the Browns would take him. Instead we took Barkevious Mingo.

2013 was REALLY weak.

I REALLY wanted Malaluga that year. Thought when we first traded back we'd get him. Took Mack.

Then he was still there for like 2 of our 2nds and we kept passing on him.

But hey we got Vikune!

My worst one of late was Trent Richardson. All the pundits thought he was the next great back. Hell, he even had a decent rookie season. Not great but he showed what he might become. Then BOOM he was gone and busted out big time. I was so glad when we drafted him. Man was I wrong on that one!

It was WEIRD. Shows you can't make someone want to play ball. That's why I gave up on meathead. He shows with his every action he just doesn't care about playing ball.


I knew Johnny had bust written all over him. When he came out on the stage and the DB's were bigger than him and when Roger Goodell TOWERED over him I had a bad bad feeling. Little did I know his stature was the least of his problems. I still have my doubts he could have made it even if he did have his head on striaght.... but we will never know.

Courtney Brown wasn't a bad pick. An injury did him in. Had he not been injured he may well have been a great player for us. I wouldn't feel bad about wanting him. I think he was the consensus pick that year like Garrett is this year. I think we should absolutely take Garrett first. If he would get hurt that doesn't change the fact it was the correct thing to do. Taking Brown was the correct thing to do. It just didn't work out because he got hurt.

I have never been able to watch much College football. There for I can not take any credit for being either right, or blame for being wrong about draft picks. It's also the reason I keep my big mouth shut in the draft forum because IMO 98 percent of you folks know more about the college players than I do.

I'll just stick with Browns draft picks:

I was totally wrong about:
Brady Quinn - I thought he was the answer. I was so stoked to get him at 22
Justin Gilbert - I thought we had bookend shut down corners with he and Haden
Andre Davis - Seeing him in college and knowing his athleticism, I thought he'd really be a star
Trent Richardson - Most of us saw him as a sure-shot top tier back

I was totally right about:
Brandon Weeden - Broke my tv when we drafted him. Literally. I knew he'd suck.
Johnny Manziel - It was laughable that we drafted him. And even more so in retrospect.
William Green - I've shared the story a few times on here, but after my experience watching him in TC I knew he was a bust.
Cam Erving - A total waste of a pick.

I'll also say that I was mad that we drafted Corey Coleman. I didn't (and still don't) think he was a difference maker. We shall see.

I don't go all in or out on many prospects so it's hard to say when I was wrong. But i was wrong on David Carr. he's by far the most wrong I've ever been. I thought he was 100% going to be a bust.

You mean Derek Carr, but his brother was a bust, so you're half correct

My best friends and i have had a running Madden franchise of all the guys we liked most at all our picks bust or not. We never take into account what the browns have on the roster just bpa by our board Every pick. Every year we update it. Just the 1st and 2nd rounders on the 10 year roster will amaze you.

Qb:Bridgewater,
RB: AP, lesean mccoy,

Wr:jordan Mathews, devante parker, Josh Dotson
Te:gronk,
Ol:Justin blalock, Mack, loadholt, veldheer, schwartz, Larry warford,

Dt:Marvin austin(ouch), Allen bailey(also ouch), Malcolm brown, jordan phillips,
Edge:Connor barwin,Cameron jordan(wanted jj but we always take the trades by default), Khalil mack

Lb:Myles jack
Cb:Stephen Gilmore,
S:earl Thomas, Harrison smith, Eric Reid,

I almost want to do this by year, so I'm looking at a year by year list of drafts:

2014 - I preferred Sammy Watkins (he's been iffy), but I probably would of taken the Buffalo trade we ultimately took. I really DIDN'T want Manziel, but I was "okay" with getting him where we did. There were still plenty on the board that insisted we take him at #4. I would of preferred to have picked up Kelvin Benjamin and then whatever QB lasted till the second round ... which would of been Derek Carr. Oh what could of been.

2013 - I don't really remember wanting anybody in this draft. Maybe Dion Jordan who went #3? Dee Milliner's name sticks out as someone I think I would of preferred over Mingo, but I do remember not being thrilled with that Mingo pick.

2012 - Another draft that I don't remember really actively pimping a player. I know I did NOT really want Trent Richardson at #4 ... so of course we gave up picks to trade up to #3 and take him. I think my preference was Morris Claiborne (CB), who didn't fair much better. I also really hated the Brandon Weedon pick. He was something like 28 out of college and probably would of been available in the 2nd round.

2011 - Pat Peterson was the guy I wanted, and he turned out pretty good ... he was just drafted the spot in front of us. I think I would of taken Julio Jones too, but ultimately we traded around and took Phil Taylor instead.

2010 - Wanted Eric Berry, but he didn't last. Was okay with Joe Haden, and both had good careers.

2009 - I remember wanting Aaron Curry here. He didn't last to us, but he was a pretty big bust anyway. None of the other names really stick out except for Clay Matthews III. Seems like I remember wanting him where we took Alex Mack instead, but I was fine with the Mack pick. Both have had good careers.

2008 - We didn't have any picks because of the previous year. I also don't remember really wanting anyone special likely because of that.

2007 - I really wanted Joe Thomas here, and remember guys on the board (mostly Diam) insisting that we take Brady Quinn at #3 instead, and we would be stupid not to ... instead, Quinn lasted to 22 and we got him anyway, which I was happy with, but I wasn't one of the people actively pimping for him the entire draft.

2006 - Really, really wanted Haloti Ngata this draft and was actually a little pissed that we traded down a slot to pass on him and take Wimbley instead. Thanks Romeo Crennel!

2005 - Another draft where we drafted really high, but for some reason I don't remember really wanting a specific guy. I do remember NOT being very high on Aaron Rodgers because he seemed like a "system QB" out of college. He did get three years to learn under the best in Green Bay, so who know how bad he might of been if he was drafted by us and thrown into the fire right away, but still, I'll call this one a miss! Looking back at the names, I think I was okay with Braylon Edwards being our choice, and he was pretty good for us for a while until his head took over.

2004 - I remember really wanting Robert Gallery this draft. Now THERE was a big miss. (I think Diam was super high on him too). I also really wanted Sean Taylor (who turned out much better), but neither lasted to our pick. We traded up for Kellen Winslow, which I wasn't thrilled with. He was a headcase. Mind you a "good" headcase for awhile, but that head surpassed the body eventually. I think I remember wanting Roy Williams, Deangelo Hall or Big Ben instead of Winslow.

2003 - A pretty forgettable draft. I don't remember really wanting a specific player here. We ended up taking Jeff Faine, which I remember being okay with.

2002 - This was the Running Back draft for us. I remember most arguments being about taking William Green or TJ Duckett. I preferred Duckett, the Browns took Green. Both ended up being busts, but Green at least had that one great run.

2001 - This one I remember vividly. Diam REALLY wanted David Terrell here, and I was on the bandwagon as well. He also thought Tomlinson was a bum and referred to him as "Darth" because of his helmet. I liked LT though, but I preferred Terrell. I do remember giving San Diego an A++ for passing on Vick (I wasn't that high on him) to trade down and take Tomlinson instead. And then getting Drew Brees in the 2nd round. Even today, that's got to rank as one of the best 1-2 draft picks in recent history. I hated the Warren pick that we made though, as did most on the board at the time. Butch Davis basically overruled his entire staff, passed on two other DT's that became Pro Bowlers and picked "his guy".

2000 - I remember slightly preferring Lavar Arrington to Courtney Brown in this draft, but I felt like we'd be okay either way. Turns out poor CB couldn't stay healthy and Arrington had a little better career.

2014 - Though I was labeled a "Carr guy" (mostly since nobody else was I think), I thought we'd be fine with any one of Carr, Manziel, or Bridgewater. Also, I liked Bishop Sankey. I was pretty right on the rest of the guys though.

2013 - I wanted Jarvis Jones. DJ Swearinger, MAtt Elam, Aaron Dobson. Also I was wrong about Sheldon Richardson.

2012 - RGIII, Kendall Wright, AJ Jenkins. I'm not going to say I was wrong about Justin Blackmon. when he made the field he was terrific. Everything I thought he'd be. I just didn't know the alcoholism was that bad. People that didn't want him said they didn't want him because Brandon Weeden made him look good.

2011 - James Carpenter

2010 - Demaryius Thomas. Gronk in that I didn't see it coming at all.

2009 - Mark Sanchez. Britt is better than I expected. Brian Robiskie.

I forgot about Joe Thomas. I was SO SO happy that we got him.

I remember EO and I went round and round over Peterson or JT.
I wanted AP and EO wanted JT. Glad we got JT.

I'm not gonna lie I was so angry we got joe lol. Not because of joe but i wanted AP so bad. But nothing compares to how angry I was when we traded ngata to our rival for nothing.

I can't believe this guy hasn't already been mentioned more than a few times. EVERYBODY seemed to be in love with this guy. Seemed about as surefire as picking Joe Thomas.

I remember the knock on Gallery was his short arms. I know EO was really down on him because of that. Turns out he was right.

I watched JJ Watt in the Senior Bowl and thought he was overrated. I no longer see myself as a judge of talent. Lol!

Man, takes me back. To start:

My biggest busts were Aaron Curry and Dion Jordan. Loved both of those guys.

I really wanted RG3 or Richardson.

This board was crazy with the Quinn vs Thomas fights. And when we ended up with both, everyone was happy. I specifically remember hating Quinn because of his inaccuracy.

Other than that, nothing sticks out. I do remember loving a defensive back a few years ago from Rice. Phillip Gaines. I thought he was going to be the best DB from his year.

Trent Richardson. I bought that one hard.

I try to talk myself into every Browns pick being good, and I don't consider that any kind of forecasting. It's just being a fan.

Richardson was someone I was almost sure was going to be good.

Mingo was another one. I thought he would fill out a little more and turn into one of those freak guys that can play all over the field.

Manziel, although I still think his talents were fine, it was just the attitude and work ethic. I think if he cared about the game, and worked as hard as all the other starting QB's in the NFL, he would have been fine. I'll eat that one though.

Brady Quinn. I thought being a 4 year starter and carrying a bad to mediocre Notre Dame program, and playing in Chuck Weis' system would have prepped him to be a franchise QB. I don't know about anything behind the scenes, but he was very limited with his arm strength. There was so much chaos going around him as well.

I'm sure there are more, but those are the guys that stuck out right away. Would be hilarious to go back and read some of my hot takes in these threads.

I really wanted Aaron Curry. I don't watch college football and only form my opinions from what I read, until I see guys on tape, such as with Myles Garrett. But I thought back then he would be a beast. Didn't work out.

Quinn. I was surprised he dropped and ecstatic we took him. He shoulda scaled back on the body-building.
I wanted Manziel because he was a winner but I didn't know how deep his issues were.

Robert Gallery

2010 Actually did not like Joe Hadan that year, did like a lot of guys in the 2nd round, Carlos Dunlop, Linval Joseph, and Jimmy Graham.

2011 Didn't mind the trade down or the Phil Taylor pick just wasn't sure where he was gonna play, really liked Jimmy Smith but I like tall corners.

2012 Hated the trade up, hated the Richardson pick, wanted Tannehill, understood the Weeden pick but was no way sold on him, wanted David Wilson

2013 Did not like the Mingo pick felt we should trade down, actually loved Jamie Collins this year, liked him at middle LB in a 3-4

2014 Didn't hate the Gilbert pick but wanted Anthony Barr, hated, hated , hated the Manziel pick, never saw what anyone saw in this guy, wanted Kelvin Benjamin or Derek Carr who we also could have drafted with the Joel Bitoni pick.

2015 Actually did not want Danny Shelton wanted Bud Dupree, who we could have gotten with either 1st round pick, also liked Byron Jones, Stephon Anthony, Benardrick McKinley

2016 Liked the trade downs but really wanted Wentz, after the trade downs wanted Taylor Decker, liked Chris Jones and Sterling Shepard

2017 No QBs I the first please, wouldn't mind trading down again, I know it's not the concensus but I see a lot of guys who can bring what Garrett would bring at later picks, like a lot of defensive guys, a lot of Corners, Kevin King and Quincy Wilson, like Jonathan Allen, really like Obi Melinfonwu, see a Sean Taylor type of player. Sleepers I like are Brian Allen and Jeremy Clark but at safety not corner. Also like Adam Shasheen, Gronk 2.0

There are too many of my good or bad guesses to list (or remember)so I will just list my all time whopper. I watched Peyton Manning in college and his feet constantly moving like our old patter step drill made me certain he was way to nervous to survive the NFL.

Needless to say I was way off base. He did that foot thing for most of his career so it must work.

Lol, Dontay Moch. He was the biggest stat fraud I've ever seen on defense. They always lined him up on the side of the ball closer to the sideline, I guess so he'd have less responsibility, never seen that before or since.

Article on the biggest misses by various draft people (it is very good):

https://theringer.com/2017-nfl-draft-biggest-misses-scouts-executives-9b7afdd89a7e