DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Browns 2017 Statistical Expectations Offense and Defense

Being specific sounds good in theory, but since we have no idea who our starting QB will be, it's hard to be specific when you have unknowns.



There's really no way that anyone, including you can have any degree of accuracy when we don't know who our QB will be.

If we have a weak armed QB starting who can't push the ball downfield, I don't see much improvement in the running game. Any time you give the opposing D a small portion of the field to defend, your running game will suffer.

If on the other hand our QB is someone with a better arm that can stretch the opposing D, the running game should improve. Maybe even more than you predict. However, trying to predict the running game with unknowns at the QB position I find to be nothing more than an exercise in futility.




Not really. The law of physics. "For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction."



I've never really been concerned with that.



Five OL players can't stop eight defensive players. It's all about the math. You can renew anything you like, but without the proper execution it accomplishes nothing.



This is not complicated or hard to understand. If you know the opposing QB and his WR's aren't going to have the ability to push the ball down the field, you can use single coverage. This allows their safties not to worry about over the top coverage. As of now we really only have one WR that can get any real separation and that's Britt.

Hue had to call out Kessler to press the ball downfield. So you don't believe that Hue knows that the QB needs to help spread the opposing D out? Oh that's right, it's just me. lol



No, really I'm not. You're trying to devalue an overriding factor that most everyone who knows anything about the sport understands.



Having a QB that the opposing D has to respect enough to give help over the top.



And yet the Titans, Panthers and Eagles all have QB's teams had to respect enough to give help over the top.

I know you feel some incessant need to be right. I know you feel by providing numbers and lengthy posts it gives you some sense of proving a point. But common sense dictates that if you can't spread out the opposing D, they can concentrate on your running game. Common sense tells you it will make it much tougher to run the ball.

Nothing you can say will change any of that. I am done here.

The problem is that the running game is directly connected to your QB. A weak QB makes it much harder to run the ball.

An incredibly weak and decimated OL also makes it difficult to run the ball.

McCown and RG3 are both known to have "strong" arms...and they couldn't push the ball downfield last year either.

Kessler does not have a "strong" arm by NFL standards...but he was not the only culprit in our inability to stretch out the defense.

Having Alvin Baily, Jonathan Cooper and Cam Erving "protecting" you up the gut while throwing the ball to a QB would make it difficult for any QB to drive the ball downfield.

You and Ed may both be correct...the difference is that all of your cards are on Kessler being the problem...while Ed is suggesting that many factors contributed to the problem...including a QB unwilling or unable to stretch the defense.

Actually it's a combination of Kessler and the WR's.

If your WR's can't gain separation, there's no need to give your CB's help over the top. It's a combination of having at least some fairly gifted WR's who can gain separation and a QB willing to push the ball down the field.

Having your opponent respect your passing game is critical in helping your running game.

Thank you for helping bridge or clear up the discussion. I'm always trying to push dialogue...and push it beyond the accepted assumptions.

I think my discussion with Pitdawg about the run game is just an extension of the Kessler debate.

My point is simple IF the QB play stays the same as it was last year then the improvements made through personnel and the not to be underestimated coaching re-commitment to running the ball should lead to an improved run game.

I think the run game, like everything in football, is the result of various interrelated pieces...coaching, scheme, opponent, personnel, injury etc.

To rely on one reason as the determinant of success or failure imho is off base in this case especially inaccurate/unsupported by the facts.

The generalization being made is that the run game was limited because the passing game invited teams to stack the box which limited the productivity of the running game.

But, it turns out that 1) Browns didn't face as many stacked boxes as expected and 2) Crowell ran the ball well against stacked boxes.

Delving even deeper....

Vikes Murray stacked box 43%
Raiders Murray saw stacked box on 40%
Patriots-Blount 39%
Chargers-Gordon 33%
Cowboys-Zeke 28%
Browns- Crow 24%
Houston-Miller 23%

Clearly whether or not a team can 'scare defenses deep' or whatever doesn't have the direct correlation to the % stacked fronts faced that is being suggested

Interesting advanced stats regarding the receivers:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000...-tight-coverage

I truly hope you do not get offended by what I am about to say. I am not insulting you in the slightest. However, I think there is a reason that there was a phrase that goes like this:

There are lies, there are damn lies, and then there are statistics.

Here is why:

The 8 men in the box is great, but what about 7 men in the box? What about teams playing one side of the field while bracketing Pryor?

Are coaches lying when they say that is what they did?

Is Hue lying when he says that Cody needed to stretch the field?

Anyone who really knows football knows what defenses did to the Browns when Cody was at qb.

Furthermore, the stats you posted also include games where RGIII and McCown were the qbs. They also include games before NE figured out how best to stop the Browns.

The provided stats also do not include how many times Crow was stuffed at the LOS and we were in long yardage situations which almost dictated that we pass the ball.

The provided stats also do not mention how many huge runs that Crow broke, which skews the average tremendously.

One final comment. Of course, there are multiple factors that factor into whether the running game is successful or not. Did anyone truly deny that? I know I didn't!!!! However, I know what I saw. I know what Hue said. And slanted stats does not change that fact.

And that fact is: Until Cody can challenge defenses both horizontally and vertically and use the entire width of the field rather than half the field.........our running game will struggle.

It probably boils down to some of both.

If you can't throw the ball, it makes running it a harder task. If you can't run the ball, it makes throwing it a harder task.

Which came first, the chicken or the egg?

I think that the defense also contributes. If the game stays close, then the ability to run the game remains in the play-caller's toolbox. If it turns into a 2+ score difference, then it becomes much harder for the coach to pull that run card.

Depends on how late in the game. You don't give up on it in the 2nd quarter like we did last year. That was just plain poor coaching IMO.

I think what ED is saying is that some on here assume we stopped being able to run because of Cody's inability to go down field.
When in fact it was not all about that. I agree with Diam, I think Hue threw Cody under the Bus and I sure hope he learned his lesson about hammering a rookie. Not Good.

We gotta start running it more out of the shotgun. We have the personnel, it's time to scheme. But Kessler and Glock need to remove this mental roadblock they have with throwing the ball deep. Need to anticipate our WRs better. Glock could theoretically make every throw, he has that arm strength, however probably not the accuracy. Kessler just needs to trust his arm. Don't be afraid to try. If you don't try, you can't learn. Glock is in that mindset now. I have no theoretical hope for Kizer this year

The more I think about it the more I realize what a total disaster last year was. It's bad enough that our guys didn't have much time playing together but when all those injuries hit our QB's and our O-line forget it. Not to mention our coaching staff was new and had to learn about the players and vice versa. We had 3rd and 4th stringers at QB and on the O-line. We were lucky to win 1 game. Hopefully we'll be healthier this year and the guys can learn and grow together. We're due for some good luck.

Good point. Not that some want to hear good points, but I appreciate it.

Who doesn't want to hear good points?

I'm not sure where you are going with these rhetorical questions. But the comment I was responding to from Pitdawg specifically mentioned 8-man in the box/stacked boxes.

My point is simple and I can't believe its gone onto this far of tangent.

The sole determinant of the run game isn't the QB. Like I said scheme, situation, playcalling, injury etc all played roles and yet despite everything that happened to negatively impact the run game it was still decent.



Yeah I never said I was making a projection based on Kessler playing QB. My projection was/is based on the net QB play staying the same as last year and stated that expressly.

I'll restate: I believe that if the quality of QB play remains the same as last then the improvements made to OL and coaching philosophically re-commiting to the run will net more production.

(Not to mention I expect improvement from the defense...but I was gonna save that aspect when I got more time to post about my defensive projection)

Agreed. But those critiques of the stats apply to all the teams/RBs not just the Browns.

Yeah, that's the entire origin of the discussion between Pit and myself.

Either way its a good convo...

ed, I prefaced all of my comments by ensuring you I was not criticizing your takes or insulting you. I am just trying to talk "football."

I can tell you exactly where I was going w/all those questions. In search of the truth. Nothing more, nothing less.

Something must have been lost in translation in the specific exchange quoted above. *shrugs*

I literally mean I'm not sure where you were going with those rhetorical questions.

I didn't see how the connected to post.

And I've said before that you don't need to preface your comments by saying you're not criticizing your takes or insulting you..

And by all means lets keep talking football.

Okay. I was going for the truth. My point is that there are a lot of factors involved and you can't use just one set of stats to make determinations. I think the "rhetorical questions" I raised emphasized that point.

Once again, it's not just me. It's Hue. I don't think he is making things up about Cody to win some debate on this board.

I just don't believe Kessler will ever have a strong enough arm. Ball game.

...

You assume wrongly if you think I'm using one set of stats to make determinations.



And like with your rhetorical questions I do not see how your last few sentences relate to my point...unless you actually believe that I believe Hue is making stuff up to win a debate on this board. If you really believe that then we're aren't really just talking football.

And maybe I'm wrong but it sure seems like you either aren't reading or plain don't care about the whole content of my last few posts as you focus only the points you're trying to push on me.

Well ed, I think you are misunderstanding my intent. Have a good one.

Who does Diam say stats are for?

Perfect example.

I think the run game will improve as well.
From scheme to personnel there has been improvement.

Moving away from a 34 base that imho put guys like Ogbah and Nassib in positions where they were flat out over matched in the run game as 5-tech. And playing Cooper a natural 3-tech also at 5-tech where he didn't produce.

I'm excited to see a 4 man DL with Shelton as the NT and Garrett and Ogbah at DEs...and IF they really want to play stout against the run they could go Ogunjobi at 3-tech. OG was one of the best DL against the run last year. Or they could go with a 'true' 3-tech.

I'm with you that we could see the passing yard increase as a by product of run defense improving.

By adding Peppers it brings a sure tackler on the field and removes a S which was one of the worst tackling positions on the team last year.

I also think the total yards rushing against will drop because I expect the offense to be a little better.

I think pass defense will improve because of improved pressure from the DL. Garrett is a huge upgrade that will help Ogbah and pass rushing 3-tech Bryant/Brantley will all have complementary effects for each other.

last years numbers on left, my expectations on the right:
31st Overall Defense------------------->28th
30th Passing Defense------------------->27th
27th Rushing Defense------------------->22nd

nfl.com: http://www.nfl.com/teams/clevelandbrowns/profile?team=CLE

Defense:
30th Points Allowed (28.2)--------28th
31st Yards Allowed (392.4)--------27th
21st Passing Yards (249.8)--------25th
31sr Rush Yards (142.7)-----------22nd

Your expectations then ed, are for only a modest improvement over last season. I would expect significantly better numbers, particularly in the latter half of the season...

Weak as far as not good I would agree, not a big armed guy able to heave it 40 yards I would not agree. Obviously, a downfield passing attack is good for the run game. But it isn't the only way to generate one. West Coast teams have been able to run the ball efficiently while eschewing a downfield passing attack for the most part. It can be done. Shanahan runs a version of the WCO. They don't throw downfield every down. Yet they run the ball like crazy. They take their shots as all teams do, but heaving it up isn't the focus of that offense and they have no trouble running the ball. Because they COMMIT to running the ball. No matter what.

Shanahan runs a version of the WCO. They don't throw downfield every down. Yet they run the ball like crazy.

Except when they have a 25 pt lead in the superbowl lol

I think our defense will be improved. But I don't expect miracles. I think it will be improved because we will run a 4-3 base. MUCH easier to draft for. MUCH easier to teach. The guys will understand it better and therefore play in it better. When Jauron took over the defense there was an improvement mostly because it was an easier D to play in. I also think our D will improve because our new DC is an inspiring leader and a good coach. Again, I don't expect miracles. This will be his first year on staff and the first year our guys will play in his system. That means a lot of growing pains along the way. The first year I expect moderate improvement. Second-year a bigger jump and third year I hope for this D to really kick some ass. We are counting on rookies and second-year guys so I expect growing pains there as well. All I hope for is an improvement as the year wears on. I can live with that. Live with watching the youngsters grow. We sure do have a lot of kids on this team. We will have even more after the next draft.

Offensively, I hope Coach does what he said and runs the damned ball. Still not sold on Crowell being a 300+ carrry workhorse back. He's never broke 1000 yards and never scored double digit TD's. Lets hope I can't say that this time next year.... We NEED him to be the stud he is supposed to be. But until I SEE that...

Until we settle on a starting QB and until that QB starts producing the offense will always be a big question. Playing strong D and running the ball seems the best way to play decent football in the meantime. Let's hope we can do that.

I'll take the season the Falcons had any time...

For the hundredth time...........it is NOT just about throwing the ball way downfield. It is also being able to throw the ball across the field, such as when you are on one hash mark and have to throw an out to the opposite sideline. That "horizontal" throw is not a deep pass, but it is a tough throw. It is also a throw that is made quite often in the WCO.

There are many other throws, such as the intermediate throw over the middle where the qb has to throw it over the dropping lbers heads, yet throw it w/enough zip to get the ball there before the trailing corner can make up ground and a safety closes on the ball. That's a difficult throw. I can give you more examples if you desire.

Having a qb who cannot make all the throws limits your offense. The game has changed. Players today are extremely fast. It's important to have a guy who can make quick decisions and have the ability to get the ball into tight windows while making all the throws.

I'm just tired of posting football 101 and everyone ignoring it. But we see this every year on this message board....... Then we watch the season. lol

Same as it ever was.... Same as it ever was.

Nice Talking Heads reference Pit

Not really sure where to put this and did not want to start a new thread:



You can read how they rank all the teams here: https://www.yahoo.com/sports/leveon-bell...-131541695.html


Not too bad considering our overall team performance last year.

Not bad at all. No doubt in my mind they will alter the rankings.

Hue has said he wished he had run more and we will this season. I expect our QB play will improve, be it because Kessler has improved, or one of the others beats him out. That should lessen the in the box looks.

I noted this somewhere else. Hue needs to call for a run play on 3rd and traditional passing yards once in a while, even if he really doesn't expect it just to keep teams honest.

I am not saying a lot mind you, but a time or two early in the game can set things up for the rest of the game. Linemen aren't going to simply pin their ears back to kill the QB on 3rd and 7. Keep the play action alive to freeze them for that split needed.

Agreed.

I'm looking at it from the other side though.

Adding Zietler and going from Erving to Tretter coupled with an re-newed commitment to run the ball which you mention are my reasons that the run game will improve.

Agreed.

I look forward to how Gregg puts the defense together.

The switch from Horton's 34 to GG 43 will send Ogbah, Nassib, Cooper and Bryant back to their true positions.

Then you add Garrett + Ogun/Brantley.

Removing a Safety from last year and adding Peppers means adding 1st round talent to one of the worst positions on the field last year.

Run def + pass rush will help the pass coverage. Like you, I don't expect overnight turn around but I expect incremental improvement.

Yup. My view is the team will take baby steps.

Although they added talent there is a lot of 'newness' (for lack of a better word) and players usually don't start playing at their best until they're playing without thinking and that takes time.

However; my expectations and my hopes are different. Potentially the new players could make a bigger impact that is my hope. Lets say multiple new players reach pro-bowl or near level player? Then the impact will be more pronounced but you still need to factor in the rest of the roster.

The thing to note is that these are all theoretical improvements based on supposition.
On paper, things look like they should be better -- it still has to actually happen.

I can't disagree with what you stated. Thanks for your reply...