DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Kizer Round 3 ..

Kiser has so much physical ability that can't be taught. I get frustrated with his mistakes but he needs to keep playing. I think Hue is finally starting to get through to him. Better receivers and more reliance on the run game will help him. He is not ready to carry an offense but he has the skills and toughness.

I like this post, very fair and logic based. If Kizer puts it together and the new pieces help in doing so the rest of the season, it'll be great. It'll just be great.

Eo, please just take a closer look at our receivers on the next game.

They are not just bad at catching (which I think is fundamental), but they are bad at the release and playing with cover.

They are easily redirected by the cb's.

Pay closer attention on the lack of cushion from the CB's (IMHO, the true measure of respect and play level for a WR)...

They are bad, they have been bad for ages. They look good in OTA's and without pads, but in games they have been sucking for ages.

Yes, we're obviously blind and the best possible stat that makes them sound better than they are should be the gold standard.

Are you sure about that? I've seen different numbers at different sites.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/11/16...issett-check-in

Control + F "Kizer"

I think he is saying that site evaluates drops for all wr the same, not that all sites evauate drops the same

cfrs, that's an interesting article.

While it's fair in its criticism all around, it leaves out some important parts about why the Browns offense is as bad as it is. Turnovers and other brain farts are the spark and the gasoline to this dumpster fire. How many times have we led our opponents in yardage (running and/or passing), first downs, and many other stats other than turnovers and penalties, and still manage to solidly lose games?

A thought that ran through my mind while reading that pulls in thoughts from other threads on here, namely the discussion on drops.

It got me curious about the rate of actual drops Kizer has had to deal with versus other QBs that are having better success and the potential impacts of this on the team and perceptions as a larger whole. Afterall, more drops translates to more 3-n-outs, more failed drives, more long down-n-distance attempts, etc.... all of which easily sets us up for failure even before any desire to press and try a little too hard might kick in (be it on the part of coaches or players).

Everything in football is a cascading effect of momentum as you battle against the clock.... how greatly has the inordinate number of drops hampered us? Furthermore, how much of the drops are on the receivers and how much is on the QB's?

*** For the above, I'm not discounting Kizer's other faults that have also contributed to our struggles, I'm just not factoring them in as they have no bearing on my musings.

J/C

I always cringe a little when the 4 TD to 12 INT ratio is used as an example of how awful Kizer is, yet two key points are always overlooked.

1. Kizer also had 4 rushing touchdowns, which is equal 4th in the league (All offensive players included) and, in terms of quarterbacks, is matched only by Cam Newton. It isn't great, but 8/12 is what he really is.

2. Kizer has 14 interceptions, but 7 came in his first three games. He's since had a reasonable 3.5% interception rate after starting with an embarrassing 6.4% interception rate. For comparison, Cam Newton has a 3.4% interception rate and Deshaun Watson was at 3.9%. Not great, you want about 1.5% to 2.5% but it's reasonable for a rookie, and he's done a nice job steadily throwing less interceptions.

Also important in that 3.5% rate, we should note that the interception against the Bengals was a beautiful 3rd & 9 conversation that bounced off Britt's chest and in to the hands of Fejedelem, and the interception against the Lions was at least equal blame on Louis for being manhandled off the route. In terms of just outright crappy throws, we're looking at a 2.1% interception rate.

He hasn't been perfect, but the 4/12 stat line makes it look a whole lot worse than it has been, and that's largely thanks to the improvement he's shown over the course of the season.

J/C...

Kizer looked much better last week. Much better.

I said it with Kessler.

I said it with Hoyer.

[To myself by the way, my wife wasn't listening]

If <insert QB name> maintains the trajectory of improvement, we may have something.

The previous 2 I listed did not. It's a tough position to get filled for a reason. I'd like to see how he goes against the vaunted Jags defense. I still hope we draft a QB high next year. More darts, etc..

Just out of curiosity, I wonder how many of the 7 came off the hands of a WR, or happened because the WR was in the wrong spot. At least two INTs that I can think of came off the hands of a WR. Probably more (maybe 3? 4?).

I really don't think Kizer will be in the league 3 years from now. If he can manage to get a nice paying back up spot, that would be wise on his part!

And u wonder why i think STATS ARE FOR ...

The 4/12 being turned into 8/12 is the WORST MANIPULATION of STATS I’ve ever seen ... and thats an extremely high bar ... u just raised it ...

WOW ...

Its so ABSURD i’m literally speechless ....

I would argue four.

Ravens:

1:46 - Off the hands of Duke Johnson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJDnETVJziU

Colts:

4:45 - Announcer seems to think this was miscommunication rather than a miss, saying, "Kizer thinks Williams is going out, Williams breaks in, Melvin makes a beautiful interception..."
5:39 - This throw is behind, but Britt gets both hands on it. Bounces off his hands, interception. The reverse angle at 6:08 highlights that the ball was mere inches to the right of his head.
8:05 - With 6 seconds left, no time outs, down by three, Kizer launches a rocket from inside our own goal. Intercepted.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz1l4jMCVy0

That's two off the receiver's hands, one on a possible miscommunication and one that was a nothing ball at the end of the game. Four interceptions.

Add in the Bengals interception (3:03, link below) and the interception against the Lions, and we're talking about potentially half his interceptions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enx8J1aRlew

With that said, some will obviously disagree, and that's fine. What I consider more important is that in none of these interceptions do I find myself really saying, "That's an awful interception, how did he not see that?" Those interceptions (Such as we saw against the Jets and Titans) are the ones that scare me. He hasn't had many of those moments, which I find encouraging.

j/c:

I think that Kizer has sucked. I think the WRs have sucked. I think the TEs have sucked. I think the RBs have been good. I think the OL has been good.

We have 3 units sucking eggs. Transferring the blame to one of those units to excuse another is probably not very wise.

I knew all three [well, I had a bit of hope for the TEs] would suck before the season started and thus far, that prediction has been realized.

I still have some hope for Njoku and Devalve, but they gotta grow a lot.

I have some hope for Kizer after last week, but I wouldn't count on it.

The WRs just plain flat suck ass.

Kizer has looked better for the last three weeks in my opinion. He still has a long way to go, but I think that he can eventually become the QB that we want. His mechanics are actually getting a bit worse now, but that is expected from a rookie with so much on his plate.

I know we as fans put everything in the extreme and we either want to put a rookie in the Hall of Fame after a couple of good games or cut him after a couple of bad ones. The truth is somewhere in between.

Kizer does give me more hope than a lot of QB's that we have drafted in a long time. His poise in the pocket and patience under pressure are tremendous for a rookie. He's got a good arm, good mobility and a level head.

J/C

Jordan Zirm of ESPN Cleveland (@clevezirm) tweeted, "Deshone Kizer has lost 363 yards due to drops by his receivers. Three. hundred. and. sixty. three."

Zirm cited ESPN analyst, Cian Fahey, who compared Watson and Kizer. He gives Kizer 30 drops for 363 yards (12%) with 6 passes over 20 yards being dropped. For Watson, 5 drops for 52 yards.

Fahey also posted an interesting stat between the two - 57.80% of Watson's yards have come off play action and 9.42% have come from screens. For Kizer, that number is 23.18% on play action and 6.25% on screens.

Only 32.78% of Watson's yards have come from something other than a screen or play action, compared to only 70.57% for Kizer. Also, Watson's after the catch yards are 41.08% compared to 47.38% for Kizer.

Even more fascinating is his "interceptable pass rate." 5.60% (14 of 250) for Kizer and 5.88% (12 of 204) for Watson. He also gives Kizer 4 non-QB ints.

Fahey also gives Kizer a better deep % at 55.25% over 16 yards for Kizer, and he lists both quarterbacks as relatively similar across the board, with Kizer being furthest behind Watson in accurate behind the line of scrimmage (88.23% vs 100% for Watson) and 39.13% to Watson's 44.44% between 11-15.

There is so many tweets he's done today, all in the last 5 hours. Check is out at: @cianaf

(Anyone with the tech savvy-ness to imbed the tweets/images?)

And some people wonder why some of us question the drop statistics of other sites?

I have a feeling that both sets of stats are off. I have no doubt that we have more drops than are being listed by the other sites that have been posted on this board and I kinda question the 30 drop thing.

I said this earlier.......and it is not a demand.......but, I wonder if we should ignore the dropped passes stats put out by various sites. There is too much discrepancy between the sites to take any of them seriously.

i agree. we've seen 3-4 drops in one freaking game.

at the same time, 30 seems high. seems to be because different sites are judging what a drop and catchable pass is.

either way, a lot of yards have been left on the field due to horrible WR play.

It has been a weird season. 30 feels high, but we've got three receivers (Louis, Njoku and Britt) who have all been struggling with drop issues.

Coats, Treggs, Johnson, DeValve, Johnson and Crowell have all added some too. I wouldn't say they've got drop problems, but they're certainly not immune to the occasional drop.

What I also find incredible is how many I've seen that would have been first downs. I would put that anywhere around 8/10 drops that would have moved the chains.

I'm not sure if 30 feels high because it is high so we somewhat resist it, or if that's genuinely where we are. I, too, would say I've seen multiple 4/5 drop games. 30 drops in 9 games is 3.3 per game. That somewhat suggests it might be on point.

A little more than 3 a game sounds about right to me.

J/c

As Dave said; I hope everyone remembers 2 things:

-the overall talent level (or lack thereof) on the team and especially on offense

-Kizer level of development, where most thought he shouldn't start


When you look at Kizer play through the prism of those 2 caveats I think its clear that its waaaaaayyyyy too early to write him off.......

I still don't get the philosophy on offense. Specifically when it comes to the lack of emphasis on play-action in the passing game, running the ball more (especially the nickel run game) and lack of use of Kizer in the run game via read-option concepts

No matter what happens the rest of the season I think Kizer deserves to return as the QB next year....

But I suspect the opinion of Kizer will improve when Coleman and the Pothead return

You haven't been a Browns fan long enough - if you are at all - to call Gordon a pothead.

Also, it's a early early to decide well go into next season with DK as a starter. He probably will, but that's not for sure.

Edit: that was for edromeo.

30 sounds about right on to me, and maybe a tad low with how bad they've been in some of the games so far.

I'm curious to know if this guy posted his source for the data, or if he compiled it himself and if so, does he list his criteria?

Might be worth emailing him for that.

The guy, Cian Fahey, compiles his on data through film study. Last year he wrote a book reviewing all the QBs in the league using the data and film study.

He does this on his own w/out any collaboration?

Like I said earlier, I doubt the validity of all these stats that are being reported regarding drops. I've seen Louis drop three passes in one game, two in another, and one in a couple of others....yet somehow he has 3 for the year? LOL

And while I think 30 drops for the team is more realistic than the stats I have seen on individual drops, I do remember us going through a game w/zero drops, so I think that number might be a bit high.

Like I've said a couple of times, I don't think it's wise to cite these stats as gospel.

One other thing that kills the Browns every week is the timing of the drops. Where/when they happen in the game. Under what circumstances.

It seems like so many times, a drop will happen just as the team is developing some rhythm. A couple 1st downs, a couple nice runs by Crow or Duke. Next play: a short/med range pass that clangs off a receiver's hands, bounces skyward, and is picked off. Or a 3rd and 8 pass that could potentially not only get us out of a hole, but whiffs.... with 20 yards of daylight downfield. Instead: punt. Again.

Sometimes, the type and timing of the drop makes a difference. Some drops can be absorbed. These types can't.

Not on a young team with zero win history.

I agree with you. Probably not so much on the RBs, I think they are OK when they should be a corner stone of the team.

Devalve threw his QB under the Bus...so I would not bet much on him, I think he's OK but no QB is ever going to trust him again.

Why do players have to talk...

Regarding the OL, its been refreshing to see them play. Honestly I think they are playing better, better chemistry, after the JT injury.

That's the thing, what is a drop? No doubt a ball that goes through the hands and hits the guy in the facemask or gut is a drop.

Some look at it that if it hits the hands...I don't buy that. Reaching back at a ball at your ankles shouldn't be called a drop. There is simply no consistent way to measure it unless you have 1 person reviewing all the possible drops league wide.

I don't think hard catches that some say could have been caught should be called a drop.

Everything is magnified because we are losing. Every team has dropped passes and every team has dropped passes at inopportune times.

True story. However, the number of drops and dropped passes at 'inopportune' times is what sets apart the good teams vs the bad teams.

Yep, thanks. I should have included a little more clarity about him in my original post.

It's nice to see an unbiased source who essentially makes three very important points.

1. Kizer hasn't been the disaster he's often described as being.
2. Watson is in a fantastic situation that has influenced his success.
3. Both guys are rookies who are showing an awful lot of promise. Even brining Kizer up a step from his numbers, and bringing Watson down a step from his, those are impressive numbers for two rookies. They're having varying degrees of success, to be sure, but the difference isn't as extreme as many media types and fans seem to think.

Hmmmm.........I am not completely sold on Watson, but their offense is terrible w/out him and tremendous w/him.

Kizer has not played well and the difference between the two qbs [at this point] is large. That might change and I hope it does. Kizer has potential. I hope he realizes it.

To me this shades Kizer from looking terrible to actually "doing ok for a rookie". He's had some issues where he's hung onto the ball too long, didn't go through his reads properly, over-trusted his arm strength, brain-farted his mechanics, and just plain made bad throws, but overall he's come along pretty well, showing progress over time. Had those drops & INTs that hit the WRs in the hands actually been caught, we'd be having a different discussion and the Browns might actually have a win or two. But hey, it is what it is. I was impressed with him Sunday against the Lions. I hope he goes out and lights it up against the Jags. We'll see.

I think Britt's crucial drive killing drops should count as 5 apiece!