DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Browns 2017 Statistical Expectations Offense and Defense

We have something in common I'm not a fan of revisionist history either. You seem to think that ignoring stats is somehow a badge of honor. Its not. CLearly some stats, like simple counting stats like comp % aren't very meaningful. And you saying I countered with comp% is [censored]. But there are certainly some meaningful metrics (which i posted like profootball focus adjusted comp, cian fahey passing charts) out there and frankly your lack of understanding of those advanced metrics is embarrassing. Griffin had plenty of issues but accuracy wasn't one of them. But anyhow....


Then do me a favor and don't pretend that I said all his problems start and end with the WRs.

I breakdown the QB prospects every year. Can't say whether i'll chart in detail and post them this year.

Often times the juice simply isn't worth the squeeze. And it might be the case even more this year then normal since it seems most people already have their minds made up... QB confirmation bias is strong.

I forgot how funny you are. I'm the one that's too sensitive.
You spend so much of time posting about people and claim to be all about football. Keep it football and you won't offend those thin skinned people like myself, lol.

I like having good football convos. I welcome a good discussion and often those only happen with different viewpoints. But, I don't have a lot of tolerance for the needlessly adversarial and childish nature of some of the internet message board back and forth.

And if you're gonna speak about me be fair, sure i post stats because football is sport that produces a lot of stats. But I also post game charting, i post gifs that i create, i post screen caps from all-22, youtube etc.

I was being fair. I even said you were a good poster. You just can't stand being questioned even after you question others.

No problem ... sorry about that ...

I haven’t read everything .... what i did read led me to that conclusion ...

My mistake ... sorry about that ..

I hear ya ... hopefully you’ll at least post your thoughts in the QB threads in what ever forum there in ...

I’ll break um down with U ...

I have made ZERO ASSumptions ... haven’t watched diddly ...

I’m a blank slate and want to learn ...

Let me know when the time comes ...

Hopefully you’ll at least post your thoughts ...

I know I’ll look forward to it if u do ...

Seemingly some have. However, I'm sure that there are many of us who either don't have access to information or aren't sufficiently knowledgeable to make use of it. Your posts are a valuable and appreciated source that helps to form our opinions. Keep up the good work...

NP. Here's a post from earlier with my take

If you feel Mayfield could be the guy, why wait?

With as many assets as we'll have this draft, why not pinpoint the best quarterback and select him #1 overall? If that's Mayfield, so be it. Why risk it?

There's a stud QB in this draft, find him, draft him early.

Because the minute that he stumbles, Browns fans will run you out of town on a rail. If you pick a QB at #1 that isn't the consensus #1, you are betting your job on it.

Leading is about taking risks...

I can live with a busted #1 pick, but trading down to minimize risks, please don't...

Any time anyone drafts a QB #1 they are betting their job on it. According to that, the only QB that should be drafted at #1 for the past decade was Andrew Luck.

What people have to remember is they're basing that "consensus" on a bunch of supposed "draft gurus" that couldn't sniff a FO job if their life depended on it. Are you actually suggesting we should listen to them over expecting an NFL FO to do their job and find, then draft an NFL franchise QB?

Once you find that QB the fans will love you. Just look at Philly.

No this is totally different.

If the QB isn't the consensus #1, you are already hated before he plays a game. You won't be allowed as much time for him to develop and fans bring out the pitchforks sooner rather than later.

According to the theory above, if a GM thought Mayfield was the guy, he should draft him #1 overall and leave Luck on the board for the next guy.

According to the theory of reality, that GM will be gone before that QB develops. He find out if he was right by watching the games on TV with everyone else.

Yeah, that's what's happening in Houston and Philly. lol

You either do your job and get it right or you can't do your job and you get it wrong. It's simply a matter of having the ability to evaluate QB's in the draft. Let's use Rosen as an example. EVERY FO and coaching staff would get at least two years with him at QB if he's drafted at #1.

So far this FO has gotten it wrong in regards to QB's. I think they'll get one more shot to get it right. No matter what anyone says, unless you KNOW you have a franchise QB, you need a franchise QB.

Let's say Kizer improves. How much will he improve? One thing I'll bet. He'll improve enough that we won't get a chance to pick any QB we want in a talented draft class like we do this year. It's our golden opportunity. The question is, will this group squander it...... again?

I think QB is the most important position in a team, been saying this even before it was fashionable.

But I think we are not looking for SB contention here, so it all depends on the plan and the execution, but no matter what we cannot pass on superior talent, and that's what we have been doing.

I have no problems not drafting Wentz... but why didn't we draft Bosa or Zeke?

We drafted MG and passed on Trubisky and Mahomes, and I think that's OK.

Not ok passing on DW and not taking Malik....

TAKING A FRANCHISE PLAYER with the 1st round IS A MUST...And I'm not talking about Colemon, Njoku or Peppers type of franchise players.... Those are just average at most..

Your example shows that you didn't understand what he was saying.

Wentz was the #2 QB off the board. Goff was taken #1.

Watson was the #3 QB off the board. Trib was taken at #2 and Mahommes at #11.

What he was saying is if we thought Kizer was guy, we should have taken him instead of Garret at #1.

huh? Draft Kizer over Garrett? That's crazy talk.

Oh I understood. This whole "consensus" thing is the problem I have with it. Whose consensus? A bunch of wannabe GM's on the internet that can't sniff a job in an NFL FO? You're paying a scouting department and a FO a fortune to get these things right.



And it looks like both will be very good QB's and well worth the draft investments.



As it stands it looks like there are couple of NFL FO's that made mistakes.

If they thought Kizer was "the guy" they would have taken him #1. They didn't. That ought to tell the fans something in and of itself. Kizer looked like a value to them because of where he dropped to and nothing more.

That's why we don't bypass picking a QB at #1 this year. Even Kizer will improve enough to make sure we won't have the #1 pick and an opportunity like this again.

Yep, it is, but us fans love to talk in extremes. It's not our jobs on the line when mistakes happen.

At some point, it's their jobs on the line because of either making poor decisions or failing to make the right decisions when the opportunity is there for them.

Just like everyone elses job.

I just wish some folks would lay of the " FANS " for a while . lol .. The problem is Dumb ass fans , for this , for that ,and so on .. According to some of you we should just band fans ( except you ) from uttering a word or opinion .. lol .. Truth is the fans are the ONLY innocent ones in this whole Browns debacle .

Their jobs are always on the line. That is why you won't see a lame brained decision like Mayfield at #1. If they truly believed that Mayfield was the guy, they would try to get him farther down in the first round than that. Drafting Mayfield before Rosen or Darnold would be a guaranteed unemployment check.

I totally agree.

That's the silliest thing I ever heard. Mayfield is your guy but you're going to risk him being drafted by trying to get cute and outsmart 31 other teams. Yeah, Brilliant!


Mock drafts will change. Keep in mind that this time 2 years ago Wentz wasn't even mocked in the first 3 rounds by some projections. We were also mocked to take Paxton Lynch #1 overall. And last year at this time Kizer was projected to be the #1 quarterback drafted...

Things will change and Mayfield will be a top 10 pick.

Outsmarting 31 GM's who also won't be drafting Mayfield over Rosen or Darnold? They are smart enough not to put their jobs on the line as well.

1 Cleveland Browns (0-11)
2 San Francisco 49ers (1-10)
3 New York Giants (2-9)
4 Denver Broncos (3-8)
5 Indianapolis Colts (3-8)
6 Chicago Bears (3-8)
7 Cleveland Browns from Texans (4-7)

The 49ers aren't taking a QB since they got JG

If the Giants are taking a QB, then Eli Manning will be going to another QB needy team. Denver? Jets? Jax? They made their bed by benching him and now can't draft a QB if they want to keep him.

The Broncos are getting a FA QB. They are built to win now and don't have time to develop a QB.

If the Colts are going QB, then Luck will go to another QB needy team.

The Bears aren't taking another QB this year.

So really, Mayfield at #7 is looking pretty good. Actually Eli or Luck trades look pretty good too. We know what we are getting with those.

So if Mayfield was the guy, the first thing I would do is to get on the phone with the Giants. Hello, Jerry Reese? This is Sashi. We are looking at trading out of the #1 spot are you interested? If he says yes then you know he wants Rosen. If he wants Mayfield, he'll stay right there at #3. Hey Jerry! Have I got a deal for you! We'll trade you #1 overall for #3 overall and Eli Manning. No extra picks needed. If they want Rosen, they will take that in a heartbeat and fix two problems that they created with one trade.

The 49ers could trade their pick but I doubt it with Barkley sitting there and Hyde a FA. In any case, no GM in his right mind is going to give up a ton of draft capital to put his job on the line to take Mayfield at #2 with Darnold on the board.

So if Mayfield was your guy. You could wind up with Eli, Mayfield and Kizer going into next season.

Mock drafts do change, but unless Mayfield suddenly becomes the consensus #1 QB, everything here still holds.

I think 3 teams traded up for a QB last year.

I don't think you play games and risk trading away the #1 pick, you just take Mayfield at 1. If you lose Mayfield you're out a franchise QB. The one guy in this draft who could turn this franchise around is Mayfield. If we somehow slip to #2 or #3 in the draft by winning a couple of games, I trade up to #1 and draft Mayfield. This guy is going to be good, don't get cute.

You don't play games by picking the third best QB over #1 and #2 either. Not if you want to keep your job.

It's a lot easier to pretend you had targeted someone else when you miss where a player is drafted, than to swallow misfiring on a QB that you have already shown to the world that you valued more than everyone else valued.

If you truly want Mayfield, you better hope that the Browns do something similar to my suggestion, because if they don't, the pitchforks will be out before he ever takes a snap.

Mayfield IS the best quarterback in the draft and really it's not even close.

IN spite of Dawgtalkers "consensous" from the "unsilent" majority, on failed Browns Qb's in the draft,

I've been a fan of just about every Browns Qb drafted except for Charlie Frye, and 50/50 only on B.Quinn.

I wasn't a fan of Hoyer, I was a fan of D.Anderson, Oh! Forgot, I "hated" the Couch pick, because there were 3 other Qb's I felt were better, and one of them I recall was McNabb, but haha, I didn't like him near as much as I liked Cade McCown, I think, (much younger then). (Didn't like Akili Smith that year either.)

Getting off topic.

About my favorite 3 draft picks, the Browns have made were, 1. Braylon Edwards, , whew, I was so relieved.

2. William Green, I really liked that pick, And Hardesty, just as much, (wow, what happened,, Hardesty was supposed to be ... Good!..)

3. Brandon Weeden, I though Weeden was pretty good, and still like the pick, panned out

4. Really liked the Manziel pick, Still think he didn't fail "on" the football field. (off the field)

5. About really my favorite thing the Browns almost did, was they traded up for, (Whew, Ryan Tannehill) ... WAIT!
They Really took Richardson? It wasn't a smokescreen?
Oh NO? Well, hope it works out...
WAIT! They gave up on Richardson after 1 flippin year? (about a year?)
Why did they take him at almost #1 if they were going to give up on his development?

Oh Well. You can't go wrong with getting a bigtime offensive player if you have the #1 overall pick.

I mean, He's not going to be a worse option than Justin Gilbert, right? and the franchise survived on in to the next calendar year, to go out and mess up the next seasons almost #1 top first round pick again, right?

When "was" the last time they spent their top pick on a quarterback?

just remembered. ( When they used the supplemental pick on Josh Gordon, I was not happy, maybe felt it a waste, at the time, and Mangini had gotten me used to "early" using picks, to chase something that wasn't there, so, I was wrong about that.

I'm betting Mayfield rises, not drops.

3rd round

As long as he doesn't rise to us.

Mainly because of the off the field stuff. Other than that I think he would be in the first round. Just not as high as Rosen and Darnold.

I have time today....might start a thread for college QB prospects game(s) breakdown.....or maybe WRs.

The aim would be a group discussion and quantification of specific plays and traits from a specific game in order to build an objective collection of observable traits.

I’ll join if its QB’s ... I have zero desire to do WR’s ... i’d rather get secondary help or even a MLBer before i go to WR’s ...

Let me know witch qb your going to start with if u go that route ...

Highest rated and most likely to come out.

ROSEN.