DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2018 NFL Season 2018 NFL Draft Josh Allen

Mahommes was significantly better than Allen.

But NFL will fall in love with his tools and pray he fixes his accuracy issues.

When the only compareable one can find is a QB draft damn near 30 years ago, I wont hold my breathe

Well like I said, there could always be someone desperate.

I watched a fair bit of tape on Mahomes and he was a more intriguing prospect for me than Allen. Plus, like posted, he displayed accuracy and threw a beautiful deep ball and was great in broken play. I want an accurate QB. Allen sounds like Kizer to me. I like Darnold or Rosen; then White or Lauletta later rounds. Take 2 QBs. Fix this problem.

Farve was in college 30 years ago. The game has changed a lot since then, so I don't think that is a valid comparison.

I love him as a person but I would draft him in the third.

Pastor,

lol that the best you got? Look at my posts over the years on QBs. I'm right about 80% of the time. That is far better than what they do in the NFL. I'm not interested in a 70 hour workweek and no time for family. It's not like NFL scouts make all that much money anyways. Plus my failing health would never survive the huge amounts of traveling.

He probably will get drafted in the first because some team will love his arm talent and take the risk. That doesn't usually work out though.

You do realize that applies to all of us, correct? And those who disagree with him are advocating we draft yet another inaccurate QB.

What was his completion percentage again?

Last Year was 56.3 % 1812 Yds 16TD 6 Ints for Allen.

Senior year was 57.6% 2432 Yds 17TD 23 Ints for DAN MARINO..

We all gotta start looking past the raw numbers and look at the PLAYER.. The team he was on and supporting cast.

Many College QB's, including some we have picked had high numbers but sucked in the NFL.

Not necessarily, he is arguing that JA should be drafted in the third round. No one with that kind of arm talent will ever, ever, EVER make it to the third round. Am I advocating drafting JA 1st overall? Nope, just saying he's wrong. He won't be drafted in the 3rd and he shouldn't. Skills are too far off the charts. Everybody can sit in here with their slide-rules and "holy grail" laws of QB nature, bottom line, someone in the NFL will draft this kid in the top ten because they don't place the same value on some "60 percent rule" as we do in this forum.

Yes. Yes they will draft him in the Top 20.

What they will get is a CAREER 55% QB.

Good flipping luck.

Watch this guy throw when he gets his feet right, he is very accurate when he does that. Watch the Hawai game. A couple of his first few throws were to the opposite sideline right on the money, both dropped. His feet were set and he ripped it, on a rope. Only a handful of QBs can make that type of throw. He may turn out to be a bust but something tells me he takes to coaching well and will fix most of his issues with his feet. Watch him throw on the run, he’s on a different level when he does. The potential is there for the kid. Yes he’s a risk but his upside is limitless.

Good post. I am not sure he goes top 10, but yeah, he'll be drafted in the first round.

Josh Allen reminds me of Joe Flacco, Cam Newton type of QB. He's a power thrower.

These dudes have huge arms. They can throw with velocity and drive the ball to all levels of the fields.

If your judging his accuracy only whether or not he's going to consistently hit short underneath timing routes with touch and placement I would say no he's not.
But if you draft him with the intent of running a West Coast style offense that team is missing the point of his skillset.
Simply put Josh can make some throws that others cannot.

You can construct a different style of offense where the routes are run at deeper depths.
You can throw deep outs, deep comebacks, and of course sideline go routes.

To me he's not a top 10 prospect but he's certainly not a 3rd round prospect either.

Good article from a guy who I like for the most part...


Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook: Josh Allen, the NFL and the Huge Twitter Debate
MATT MILLER
OCTOBER 6, 2017

Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen warms up before an NCAA college football game against Iowa, Saturday, Sept. 2, 2017, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press
What do you do when everyone you interact with on Twitter all day says one thing but almost every contact in the NFL says another? Who do you believe?

I've always felt like my job is to be the bridge between fans and the NFL and do my best to explain to readers and listeners why and how NFL scouts and executives think. Because of that, building friendships with those evaluators has become a much larger part of my job. So what do you do when that happens?

Twitter will tell you that Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen isn't any good. Some will theorize on a system of racism in the NFL that promotes tall, strong-armed, white quarterbacks. Others will use data and numbers to show that Allen's completion percentage or yards per attempt aren't on par with that of franchise NFL quarterbacks when they were in college. And still more will use the eyeball test to tell you the kid is struggling and can't make plays.


Twitter does not like Josh Allen, but the NFL does. And I do. So where is the disconnect? I've always felt like folks in the media aren't transparent enough when evaluating players, so here's me being 100 percent open. Here's what I see when I evaluate Allen.

Stay up to date on every mock draft, big board and "Stick to Football" podcast episode throughout the season with the new B/R app.

The first step in evaluating college quarterbacks for the NFL is to realize that 99.9 percent of players must be developed as they make the jump from Saturdays to Sundays. Even Peyton Manning needed time to learn under quarterback coach Bruce Arians in his rookie season and he's considered the greatest quarterback prospect of my lifetime. So if every quarterback needs developed, why not bet on the best traits? It's a gamble, but when you realize every pick is a risk you might as well bet big. It was the same argument I made last October when telling NFL scouts that Patrick Mahomes should be a first-rounder.

Josh Allen has rare traits in terms of arm strength and athleticism; after watching him in person I'd say his arm is the strongest I've ever seen. Allen is able to make difficult throws from any platform and can easily throw a 25-yard out route on a line from the opposite hash.

You could counter that and say neither Manning nor Tom Brady have a huge arm or great athleticism, but they're rare in terms of preparation, football IQ and leadership. Allen's physical traits are similar to Cam Newton; and he made it to a Super Bowl and won an MVP without being incredibly accurate. You could also compare his arm, agility and pure strength to a young Ben Roethlisberger; another player who had amazing success without being highly accurate.


There are other cases of great athletes not working out (Jake Locker, EJ Manuel, Blake Bortles) but it's foolish to ignore cases where elite traits led to a quarterback being a good pick. That's what I see when I evaluate Allen—a strong-armed, athletic, smart, humble, tough player. Those traits will take a player far if he's developed, given a good play-caller and a little talent around him.

Allen is 21 years old. He's only been able to buy a beer for a few months. Expecting him to be something he isn't is why the draft process is so frustrating. Accept his strengths and know you have to work on his weaknesses.

When I got into scouting over 10 years ago, an NFL general manager told me in an email to focus on what a player can do and not what he can't as the golden rule of scouting. With Allen, it's all the things he can do that make him a first-round prospect.

Another older article but think its still relevant....

https://www.thephinsider.com/2017/9/6/16258338/josh-allen-has-the-strongest-arm-in-college-football

If you like a big arm read this.....

http://www.stack.com/a/josh-allen-threw-...ver-exceeded-60

Another article....

http://mwwire.com/2018/01/21/nfl-draft-josh-allen-carson-wenz/


I'm not trying to change anyone's mind or anything just providing info, you guys take what you want from it....

I don't think as highly of Matt Miller as you do. He certainly is overlooking some of the most important attributes for a qb.

IDK iv'e learned a few things from him over the last few years, he's opened my eyes to some prospects i didn't know about. I like that about him. Don't always agree but you gotta expect that.

Ignoring accuracy and reading coverages while placing most of the emphasis on arm strength and athleticism seems kind of dumb to me.

But, that is just me.

That's EXACTLY the way I feel.



Josh Rosen makes the most sense to many because he has the shortest learning curve, that equals less risk. The risk comes in what people consider character flaws and the fact that he may already be "damaged goods" because of previous concussions.

Darnold makes sense to many because of the tools and the "it" factor. The "it" factor made it clear to everyone watching the last Superbowl that Tom Brady would come back and win early in the process. The "it" factor seemingly can't be taught, when people see someone has it - they are willing to pay a heavy price for it.

Allen possesses tools that no one in the league has, not the little boy league - the big league. His college game was the result of someone just letting him go out and do what he does. He has terrible footwork and less than stellar mechanics. That was good enough in a two year stint in Wyoming where they were usually playing with a talent deficit and he had no weapons. There are QB coaches all over the NFL salivating because they are pretty sure they can fix the bad things. He's only really played two years... this isn't a Tim Tebow wind-up, these are simple issues with mechanics and decision making.

These are general consensus type analyses. Then there is how it pertains to this particular team... The Browns have no vet in their QB room and no real standout on the horizon to be the "bridge". That would seem to make Rosen the clear cut choice because of the learning curve.

In my eyes, the biggest acquisition is who we bring in to start at QB next year... it shouldn't be any of the names listed above. If I have a viable starter, I trade out of #1, have an extra 2nd round this year and 1st round next year, Fitzpatrick at 4... Allen between 8-10... package (2) 2's to move back into the first if I see can't miss talent that has been overlooked... AND a solid starting RB (Peters?) that will complement Duke Johnson's skill-set.

Fate, I like you as a poster, but Matt Miller is basically saying that arm strength and athleticism is more important than accuracy and ability to read coverages.

Sorry, he is dead wrong on that one.

I am not dissing Allen. I am dissing Miller's criteria.

I will say that after watching Kizer all year that people are still questioning just how important accuracy, decision making, and making quick reads are??????????????

I don't know if he's ignored them, he didn't bring them up in this particular article but i can't say he's ignored them. I've read stuff he wrote from the senior bowl where he has brought it up. I think he's just talking potential in this particular article.

Here's one from the senior bowl where he mentions it albeit a very little bit......

Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook: Did Allen, Mayfield Move Up 2018 Draft Boards?
MATT MILLER
JANUARY 26, 2018

North Squad quarterbacks Baker Mayfield (6) of Oklahoma, Tanner Lee (13) of Nebraska and Josh Allen (17) of Wyoming during the North team's practice for Saturday's Senior Bowl college football game in Mobile, Ala.,Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2018. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
Butch Dill/Associated Press
MOBILE, Ala. — The Senior Bowl is the first step in a long NFL draft process, but for some it's arguably the most important. For Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, it has been his chance to show off his rare traits like top-tier arm strength and excellent athleticism while answering questions about his completion percentage and field vision. Through three days of practice, Allen has won over some, but he continues to have lots of detractors among NFL draft analysts and fans.

I spoke with or texted with multiple NFL scouts and executives this week, and one source whose team has a top-five pick told me Allen will "be the first or second pick in the draft." That's strong praise for a player with undeniable raw tools but unproven production on a young Wyoming team in 2017.


Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield surprised folks when he decided to accept an invitation to the Senior Bowl, but Mayfield told me last month that he wanted to prove people wrong and show teams what he's really like. On the field he's everything you'd expect—loose, fun, fiery and accurate on touch passes. The most important part of the week for Mayfield was weigh-in day, and he "won" that event by coming in just over 6'0" tall (6'0 ⅜") and with a hand size of 9 ½".

What we in the draft industry think of Allen and Mayfield ultimately won't affect how much NFL teams value him—or shouldn't—and those against Allen's being a top-five pick in the draft might want to at least open up to the idea that he will be an early pick even if they don't believe he should be. "Will versus should" is a valuable question this time of year, and when it comes to the big-armed Wyoming quarterback, he will be one of the first players to hear his name called this year.

Oh, I get it Vers. I think you're reading it a bit wrong though. He's not saying that they're more important.. he's saying one set can be taught and one set can't. Then, when you apply the fact that every pick is a crap shoot (well, nearly every one), you may as well shoot for the stars (and the upside) by banking on the skills that can't be taught. I think you demonstrate your football acumen, judgement and restraint by spotting the obvious in Rosen. He is really the obvious choice. Is easy to fall in love with Allens arm, size and athleticism and throw restraint out the window - you're a better man than I in that respect. However... I'm getting to the point where I believe that if someone can't take this piece of clay that is Josh Allen and mold him into an elite QB - it's on them as much as it is him.

Here's some of the things said about him at the senior bowl......

http://mwwire.com/2018/01/23/2018-senior-bowl-what-is-being-said-about-josh-allen/

"... but Allen has some major flaws as a quarterback prospect—namely, accuracy and decision-making."

you keep ignoring this part

accuracy and decision making are far more important than arm talent.

Yes, but why is he inaccurate? Is he setting his feet right? Is he throwing off balance? Is he forcing balls into windows that are to small, trusting his arm to much? Or is he just not accurate? These are the questions GMs need to answer for themselves. If they feel some of the things making him inaccurate are correctable then they will see him for his potential. His decision making is correctable with proper coaching, he just has to take to that coaching. Sounds like he’s a good worker and a coach able kid so I see that getting better. I also see that when he sets his feet right and let’s it rip he is very accurate, a lot more then his stats say. He needs to do that more often. That’s why I myself think he will look more accurate after some good coaching here in the NFL. We don’t really know what coaching he got at Wyoming, I suspect not as good as he could have got at say a sec school. That’s why I’ve used the Favre comparison, they both were considered inaccurate QBs but Favre took to his coaching and got better.

I’m not advocating we draft the guy and I’m not saying we should stay away from him either. Just see some correctable issues for him. If Dorsey thinks his accuracy issues are correctable I think he’ll like the kid eve at #1, I’ll leave that decision for Dorsey.

I agree, he is like Kizer.

I don't want guys who we have to teach to be accurate because we probably won't be able to gain much. It's not like these guys haven't had any coaching up to this point.

His inaccuracy issues are all footwork related. He tends to overstride and as a result balls sail on him. He recognizes that and I believe he can correct that part of his game.

His arm is much better than Kizer's as are his arm mechanics. He gets his feet working consistently, watch out - the kid will stud out.

jc...

Sorry to be so long-winded, I'd just like to get everything off my chest with this subject.

It's easy to just say "he's just like Kizer, we already have one QB with accuracy issues", but really, it's a bit of a cop-out. Judge Allen on Allen, not against the bar we have in place.

He has one of the strongest arms in the history of the game. 50 yard passes are basically effortless. He has a cannon - a pass was recently clocked at 66mph, no other QB had recorded a speed above 60... it's akin to a pitcher throwing 110 mph. Dan Pastorini or Randall Cunningham way be able to throw a bit farther, Bert Jones or Brett Favre - maybe a bit harder. Other than that, there are no real comparisons to his arm. Lost in all this is some strange propensity to claim he can't put "touch" on a ball. Watch his games - the claim is absurd. He does throw receivers open, he does hit receivers in stride. He does go through progressions quickly. He's a great runner... fast and takes care of the football. He looks like Gronk in the open field, simple head fakes and stutter steps help avoid contact, when there is contact, he usually gets the best of the defender. In high school, he was the leading scorer on his basketball team and a 90 mph pitcher on his baseball team. Just a kid that loved sports. Never "groomed" to be a QB... No QB camps, etc... he got bigger and stronger and decided he wants to be a Quarterback at an elite level.

Does anybody realize that the difference between 57% completion and 65 amounts to 2 passes per game? Even if he never improved, you still have a QB that can hit any receiver, on any route, to absolutely any part of the field.

Why is he "inaccurate". Well, part of it is that he played on a crappy team with a crappy o-line. His average game day is being flushed out of the pocket constantly and throwing across his body on the run. He lost his two best receivers at the end of 2016 and the next two best in line were injured before the 2017 season began. Then there's the mechanics... which is to say his footwork, arm mechanics aren't flawless but they're not far off. Footwork is atrocious (on a good day). Happy feet, overstride, throwing off his back foot and bad balance. If NFL coaches can't correct that - I don't know what to say lol. My only other criticism is that he "throws" the ball - sometimes it comes out a little wobbly, seldom is there a perfect tight spiral.

A good kid that's never been in trouble, "farm boy" strong, a gifted athlete, an elite NFL arm, a hard worker, humble... and wants to come and play for YOUR Cleveland Browns.

The most important factor to Allen's future is how the team that drafts him prepares him to be an NFL QB. He can't be thrown on the field week one. He is a work in progress for an entire season. Now I know it's easy to presume that Rosen and Darnold can be the starting QB next season... but it's still far from ideal and really not a very good idea. Our most important task is to put a serviceable vet in place to mentor whoever we draft. We're in a tough predicament because nobody really wants to come to Cleveland. I have a strange feeling Kizer will be our starting QB next year, I bet it's true.

All of that aside, judging Allen and scratching him off the list because of accuracy issues is ridiculous. It's easy for us to do as fans, but the smart money in NFL circles are tearing apart his game tape to establish the root of this evil and deciding if there is an elixir to remedy.

Is there a chance that he may never be accurate? Yes, of course, and that is where all of the risk lies. Risk vs upside? My money is on Allen, especially if we can move out of #1 and draft him... stock piling more draft picks and still drafting 2-3 of the elite players we want in the first round. Besides Allen, we are a work in progress, there is no QB in the league or college that suddenly makes us a playoff team next year. I'm not sold on Darnold, I'm not sold on Mayfield, I'm not sold on any other QB but Rosen. I AM sincerely concerned about Rosen's concussions and slightly concerned with his demeanor, character flaws and the immediate expectations of him and our fans and media.