DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Initial Evaluations of 1st Round QBs

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Initial NFL evaluations of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen
How have four of the five Round 1 quarterbacks from the 2018 Draft fared at the start of their NFL careers?

The 2018 Draft featured the most hyped quarterback group in at least 14 years, and four of the five first-round picks at that position, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen, have all at least started one game at the NFL level.

I took to my film bunker -- which is really just my laptop on my desk in the room in the middle of my house -- to evaluate how these young quarterbacks have performed at the early stages of their professional careers.

Yes, the sample sizes are currently small, but these quarterbacks could represent a prominent portion of the future at the game's most vital position, so constant analysis is warranted.

Baker Mayfield, Browns

Stats: 38 of 64 (59.4% completion), 496 yards (7.8 yards per attempt), 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 81.2 QB Rating

The benefits of Mayfield's vast collegiate experience -- 1,497 attempts at Texas Tech and Oklahoma -- has been evident in his first two appearances in the NFL. On the majority of his drop backs, he's either quickly fired the football to his initial read or rapidly moved to his next option. One of the few times he didn't click to his second read, he should've been intercepted in the end zone against the Jets. Also, he already possesses the ability to move around in the pocket with chaos around him. On a few occasions, he's gotten overly antsy when his first read hasn't been there, and on those plays he's either vacated early or simply gotten sloppy with his footwork, which has led to off-balance, off-target throws.

Overall, he's been far ahead of most rookie quarterbacks when checking multiple reads and pocket drifting. Huge pluses. There have even been a few times it's appeared he's baited the entire defense by starting with his head to one side of the field before snapping it to the other side to rip an in-breaking route.

Mayfield's accuracy has been fine, pinpoint in the short-to-intermediate ranges and slightly above average deep, but ball placement on a few technically "on target" throws have left a little to be desired. His velocity has been impressive, and he's been an efficient scrambler. I love how he hasn't been afraid to make any throw, even through a tight window or on a back-shoulder target to give his receivers a chance. Unfortunately, he's dealt with many drops, but that gun-slinger mentality has also generated some big plays -- particularly down the seam to Jarvis Landry and David Njoku -- when his pass-catchers have made tremendous grabs. In general, Mayfield's strong offensive line has provided him ample opportunities from clean pockets, and Cleveland's scheme has not been a hindrance, as misdirection, tight ends down the seam against zone, and screens have been utilized often.

Grade: A-

Sam Darnold, Jets

Stats: 73 of 127 (57.1% completion), 868 yards (6.8 yards per attempt), 4 TDs, 5 INTs, 72.6 QB Rating

Above all, two aspects of Darnold's game have stood out to me in his first four starts...antsy feet and severely lacking downfield accuracy. He's been very decisive and accurate to the short and intermediate levels of the field when his first read is clearly open. When that hasn't happened, he's been erratic with his pocket movement, occasionally drifting back and away from the line of scrimmage instead of towards it, and in most cases, his eyes have dropped. He's run into some edge pressure and been late on a handful of throws too.

At times, Darnold's been so locked onto his first read, he's been forced to throw with pressure directly in his face, which has led to strange arm angles and awkward feet positioning. He's actually done well delivering the football relatively accurately in those situations, but it speaks to a larger concern that he's not naturally moving into clean areas of the pocket on longer-developing routes.

He was the most willing to move to his second read in the most recent outing against the Jaguars in Week 4, but that game also featured the most straight misses I've seen from Darnold thus far. Overall, he's been a one-read quarterback to start his NFL career and has looked like a super-young signal-caller who didn't have loads of experience in college. The Jets' offensive line hasn't given Darnold much help either.

Grade: D+

Josh Allen, Bills

Stats: 55 of 103, (53.4% completion), 666 yards (6.5 yards per attempt) 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 63.8 QB Rating

Like Darnold, the times Allen has moved quickly from his first to his second read have been few and far between. Also like Darnold, Allen hasn't been comfortable moving away from any semblance of pressure inside the pocket. He too has been forced to throw with defenders -- and offensive linemen -- in his face due to a lack of pocket presence. All of that has led to a high amount of sacks, and Buffalo's offensive line has been average at its absolute best, particularly against the blitz. He's dealt with plenty of drops as well. Allen's proven to be a commodity as a runner, both on scrambled and designed plays.

He's had a handful of clear-cut misfires but when kept clean and when his initial read has gotten open quickly, Allen's thrown with major velocity and good accuracy without ball-placement problems. His pass-catching options are the worst of 2018's first-round quarterbacks who've started thus far, and he hasn't seen as many quickly open first-read targets as his signal-caller contemporaries. Also, what's likely a plan to accentuate his arm strength, the Bills' scheme has been mostly vertical based, and while Allen has taken many shots beyond 20 yards, there have been a couple of times he hasn't pulled the trigger downfield to give his receivers a chance to make play.

Either way, given the offensive line, his shaky pocket presence, and current tendency to lock onto his first read, Allen would benefit from more quick-game elements in Buffalo's offense. In the second half against the Packers in Week 4, he was much more calm in the pocket and more decisive than in any other half of football I've seen him play at the NFL level, but Allen was not moving quickly to his second read.

Grade: D+

Josh Rosen, Cardinals

Stats: 19 of 34 (55.9% completion), 216 yards (6.4 yards per attempt), 1 TD, 1 INT, 72.7 QB Rating
Rosen has been the closest to Mayfield in terms of pocket presence and patience within the confines of his offensive tackles. He's made a few bad decisions with the football yet has mostly been an accurate passer, with some misses at the intermediate-to-deep portions of the field. He hasn't had a problem with velocity.

Importantly, Rosen has been capable of moving to his second read if his first target is covered, and he's even done so while under duress.
His fourth quarter and final drive against the Seahawks were excellent, as he dropped a few dimes at the intermediate level, calmly moved away from pressure with his eyes downfield, and tossed accurate passes to secondary targets. Like Darnold and Allen, his offensive line is concerning and, thus far, has been the worst of any of the four first-round quarterbacks from the 2018 Draft who saw the field in September.

Grade: C+

so, that's good right?

I understand why you posted this but anyone trying to make any judgement with such a small sample size is only fooling themselves.

Can we say Jared Goff boys and girls?

and none of those other QB's have anything close to the talent that baker gets to work with. or the offensive coaches for that matter.

The best Rosen has is david johnson. Fitzgerald is a legend, but old.

Allen has Shady, and pretty much nothing else.

Darnold....ugh. doesnt have much to work with, and two average RB's.

I think that you can look at a lot of things that Baker has already managed to do very well.

He is not a runner, but has managed to move effectively within the pocket, while keeping his eyes downfield.

He has learned to trust his reads. He either throws the ball quickly, with an immediacy, or he quickly moves to his next read.

He knows how to misdirect the Safety with his head/eyes.

He has taken control of the team. There is no doubt that he is the leader.

He can fit balls into tiny NFL windows. The receivers aren't somehow getting more open now, he is just throwing the ball where they can make a play.

His accuracy is very good, but he still has room to improve here, and I think he will.

He handles the blitz really well. He finds the one on one matchup, and delivers the ball quickly.

Yes, it's early, but he is displaying legitimate NFL starting QB traits.

One start is way too early and Oakland sucks.

The Ravens do not suck. We are going to find out where Baker is with his development Sunday.

Interesting that the Ravens OC/HC have called Baker this generation's Elway or Favre.

That's HIGH praise ... and of course it could be just to inflate him to deflate him Sunday, but we'll see.

You listed a lot of things, but you neglected to mention the 4 turnovers. Any reason for that?

I don't know about the other teams, but our guy seems to have elevated the guys around him.



That is a good sign, Swisher. It's a really good sign.

Other good players know other good players. Our good players seem to think that Bake is a good player.


You know, good on their level, not just a guy who might help out 2-3-4 years.

No doubt that final grades come in 3-4 years from now, but as of the moment, it's looking chipper.

Come on Vers , it was actually 1 turnover. One bounced off Landry's hands, one the center snapped the ball while Baker was calling a aduible, one the o-line let him get his arm hit from behind.

I admit I wanted Darnold. I think you did too. I will admit I was wrong. Baring injury I think Baker has a chance to be great.

No, Vers wanted Rosen.

I think he can be great, too. But all of this talk w/out even mentioning his turnovers is over the top. People are blaming the coaches for the loss.

All qbs have turnovers that go off the hands of receivers. Dude turned it over 4 times. That was one of the many reasons we lost. To ignore that fact is disingenuous.

Baker takes a lot of chances. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. I can live w/turnovers if he makes more big plays than bad ones, but it's wrong to not even mention them and then turn around and blame the Special teams for the loss or Hue not going for it on 4th down inside his own 20 w/an 8 point lead.

Good grief!

Yes, he had those, as well.

One of those was an INT returned for a TD, where Callaway fell down after the ball was thrown.

One was a snap where the Center admits he snapped the ball on the wrong count.

The last INT was an ugly throw/poor decision, and the other fumble was him trying to do too much.

Those are learning opportunities. We'll see if he learns from them.

Sure it's too small a sample size.

Sure,technically, he had4 turnovers in the last game.

But this analysis isn't far off what I see with the eye test so far. It fails to mention how calm and comfortable he looks. The command he seems to hold over offence and the huddle. Things not to be taken lightly imo. It doesn't mention, as others said, or him elevating the play of those around him. Not does it mention him seemingly throwing receivers open and his anticipation. . . . Things I see, but again a short short short sample size.

What i would say it does, perhaps, is lay to rest the absurd and unwarranted criticism he's gotten. Posters with their own agenda saying he's got below NFL arm strength and accuracy.

Long way to go... But i think we got our guy.

Watching Brady in tonight's game, I hope that Baker starts seeing the easy throws to the RBs, that Brady makes look even easier.

It's interesting to me that people are more worried about the 4 turnovers than the fact we scored 42 points.

I see this Baker Mayfield and 4 turnovers everywhere but we just scored 40+ points for the first time since 2009. That's almost 10 years ago. The last time we scored 42 or more points in a game was the infamous Bengals game in 07. The time before that was in 04. That's thrice in almost 15 years!

And people are like we can't forget about those 4 turnovers that may or may not have been the fault of a rookie quarterback. Who cares? We were 0-16 and we just scored 42 points, IN A GAME!

Yes I know it's about wins and losses. But if we commit 4 turnovers and score 42 points every game, we should win more than we lose.

I'm the only one who pointed out that he had 4 turnovers. So, it isn't "people."

I am not more worried about 4 tunrovers than us scoring 42 points. I simply pointed out something that is being almost completely ignored by most posters on here while they are harping on the special teams and Hue going for two or not going for two or him not going for it on 4th down inside his own 20 w/an 8 point lead late in the 4th quarter.

I think there is a lot of biased thinking in play.

I have been reluctant to comment on Baker's performance because of all the attacks I receive when I just try and be honest. However, screw it..........I'm going to give it anyway.

Strengths:

--Supremely confident. I really love this about him. He isn't as cocky as I thought. He is more confident and that is huge.

--He really looks like a leader. He has fire. It appears the players believe in him.

--He has been able to fit balls into tight windows and that was one of my questions on him.

--He has been pretty accurate.

--He has big stones. He isn't afraid to make any throw. I like that.

--He moves well in the pocket.

--He avoids sacks.

--I like how he took responsibility for his mistakes. I will say that my thoughts on his personality while he was in college seems to be way off. Dude is saying and doing all the right things.


Concerns:

--Takes a ton of chances. When you throw the ball into tight coverage, you are going to have tipped balls and defenders are going to make some plays. I think he is going to throw a lot of picks unless he changes his philosophy.

--He looks shaky under center, which is understandable.

--I've seen him go to his second read a few times, but never a third and it's kinda slow. Again, this is not surprising considering his collegiate offense.

--He needs to learn to use his backs as check down guys when deeper receivers are covered.

Summary:

He's way better than I thought he was going to be. He has a chance to be very good. I do think he is going to turn it over a lot and that will cost us some games. While it is early.........I think he looks to be a solid choice as the first overall pick in the draft.

You know one of my biggest complaints about QBs who have wandered through the doors in Berea is when they refuse to take shots down the field.

I have long said that I would rather have a young QB who needs to learn to reel it in a bit, then one who is afraid to make throws down the field. It's why I preferred DA to Frye and Quinn, and anyone to McCoy.

This is one big reason why I like Baker so far. He has no fear. He needs to learn what throws he can't make, and he'll probably throw more INT this year than he should, but heck, Peyton Manning threw what ... almost 30 INT as a rookie? (I'm not looking it up, but that's close)

I'm not saying he'll be Manning, but I think that he'll be OK in this regard, long term.

YTown...........I have zero problems w/your opinions on Baker.

I just used your earlier post as a vehicle to express my opinions. I've been afraid to express those opinions because of all the personal attacks when I was just trying to be honest last week.

I don't like being called a liar. A "butt buddy." A bedfellow w/another male. A deceiver. Etc.

Heck, I think my takes on the dude have been mostly positive. I'm freaking tired of the bullying techniques some resort to on here.

I understand. In fact, if you look above, we have the same opinion on Baker learning to use the RBs in the passing game. That is a real strength of Tom Brady, that I would like to see Baker emulate.

You'd probably be best off if you stuck to the football aspect of things. I like reading your football posts. What I don't care for, and most don't, is your attacking posters that don't agree with you, then getting a "I'll take my ball and go home thing" And the "Ah, pity me." thing.

Yeah, I heard Aikman mention that tonight about Brady and it made me think about Baker.

A work in progress. But, I'm encouraged.

So far I am encouraged. I was pretty sure we were taking Darnold, and I was shocked we turned in the card with Baker's name on it.

It's early, but I repeat myself, I am encouraged.

I had a moment reading this thread. I thought - wow, imagine if we drafted Darnold and were watching his second game thinking this is really gonna take some time... while watching week 4 of BakerMania in full force in New York.

Neither QB has shown any glimpse of long-term success in this small sample size, but the shoe on the other foot may have had us crying in our beers right now.

Eh.. question is does Darnold have what Baker has to work with?

We just need to ride a single train for a while, and see where it takes us.

I long for the days of a discussion that does not involve the next QB.

I am satisfied with what I have seen so far, even impressed.

And I agree with Ytown, Mayfield is not checkdown charlie, and that is a good thing.

I don't know. Did Tyrod? I get the whole argument but good QBs make their supporting cast more than vice-versa. Anderson, Enunwa, Pryor, Kearse, Crowell and Powell? Not exactly the armpit of the league there.

Right now it seems evident to me that we'll see dividends and success at the QB position much quicker than NYJ will. I tend to think the pecking order would be different if we traded QBs. I could be wrong - I liked Brandon Weeden too.

no offense to you,but I've now seen these several times.At first I was amazed,now I just chuckle.At myself for being amazed.
Let's look at that vaunted Browns skill position group.
Landry,one of the best in the business.
A rookie WR with great speed,questionable hands and zero route running ability.
A 2nd year athletic TE with questionable hands.
Higgins i'm not certain what's happening there,but he seems to be making plays when called upon.
And finally,an underused 3rd down back.

Take away Landry,and those other "guys" aren't going to win many football games.

j/c

Regarding the snap fumble, on this week's ThomaHawk podcast, Joe talked about that, laying it at Baker's feet.

The offensive line is going off a silent count. The QB taps the center which starts the count. When the count is done, the snap is coming. Baker saw something and tried to make a change...but the count was on and the snap was coming.

Joe said it's part of learning how to play under center as opposed to out of the shot gun. Had the same thing happened in shotgun, Baker would have had a split second to react, and probably wouldn't have fumbled.

I agree on Calloway ... I’ll just say that I believe he gets a lot of leeway on here because of the catch against the saints I think it was and the fact he flies ...

His hands are as bad as Njoku’s ...

As u pointed out he has no clue how to run a route ...

Right now his only asset is his speed ... other than that he has a LONG BUTT way to go to become an nfl reciever ...

He has the speed ... does he have the desire to put the time in to become good ... if he puts in the time to learn how to run routes and learn the other nuances of the position how good he can become will be literally in his hands ...

To me Callaway looks lost when he's on the field quite a bit ... there was a throw that went over his head and he looked back like he didn't even know what planet he was on

Darnold struck me as a hyped and adopted poster child for media favoritism. The fix was in and it seemed ESPN and others were almost breathless to sling more mud at the Browns for picking BM, hating on that for snubbing Darnold. It didn't seem like second guessing it, sammy seemed promoted as the darling flavor of the day. We did our talking on the field.

While he missed out on work with the ones for TT, BM has made strides and competed. Hardly a major offense to help him out. I think he is enthusing some around him.

Just win, baby! Go, Browns!

No, it was 4. We turned the ball over four times. Look at the stat sheet.

It was Calloway's hands, not Landry's. It was a pick. Not saying it was on Baker, the WR had his hands on it.

The other pick was on Mayfield. It was a poor decision, and that will happen to QBs. Thought he saw something, I guess. A shorter pass would have been sufficient to try for FG range and a chance at a win.

Vers's point is not that Mayfield single handedly cost us the game. And he did not say that Mayfield was the reason for the 4 turnovers. He only said that the team had 4 turnovers. His point is that a lot of posters are listing reasons why we lost and ignoring the turnovers. The 4 turnovers were definitely a factor in the loss.

A lot of us who were against drafting Mayfield (I wanted Rosen) are giving him credit for his play, there is no need for the fan bois to still be getting butt hurt over perceived criticisms.

I think that is a fair assessment of our qb versatile. Some of what you said, fitting the ball into tight windows and getting a lot of interceptions made me think of Brett Favre.. He never saw a window he didn’t think he could fit the ball into. Unless someone has passed him I think he is the career leader in touchdown passes and interceptions.
Imo, the key to baker developing into our franchise guy is continuity. Continuity of the staff, continuity of the offensive system. If he gets that I think he will develop into a really good qb.

Mayfield is reminding me more of Brees than Favre. I get that he had a lot of turnovers, but most of them were stupid rookie mistakes. Favre just had too much moxie. Trying to call an audible after initiating a silent count... Oof.

I agree with you. I'm glad we are wondering if he can fix audibling after a silent count than wonder if he'll ever fix his feet or become stronger or more accurate....

Baker is what we've been waiting for.

Honestly too soon to tell,but I like the 4 QB's

Wont say much about BM because people here take all criticism like hate, I like what I see, big problem is that I don't enjoy his type of QB, still think he has a very low ceiling.

Darnold can make a living in the NFL with his scrambling to the left. his team sucks.

Allen is the biggest surprise for me... Think Carr was right and that he is in fact special. Bills OL is attrocious, no QB can flourish like that.

Rosen... he's a superstar, best QB in this draft by far, IMHO.

I don't think people attack honest evaluations as much as you think.

And I've heard others, not just you, bring up his 4 turnovers. I had just listened to Cowherd rip baker for the turnovers. Cowherd is one of the worst.

In my mind baker is going to make mistakes, he's a rookie. Throwing it deep to callaway at the end of regulation might be the most aggravating thing baker did. I don't mind the attempt but you better make darn sure no one but your guy can catch it with the game on the line.

Just my opinion... and while that play hurt u.s there were several other players that hurt as well. I mean we have up 45 points. We won't win many doing that. The steelers turned the ball over 6 times and they still managed a tie against us. Turnovers can be overcome.

I thing there's a lot of good that came from this game and I think the outcome speaks to what you've been commenting about when it comes to learning how to win.

I believe baker will learn that he doesn't have to win the game with a homerun. A couple more short out passes to Duke or mid range pass over the middle with the time outs we had and we give the kicker a chance to win the game. Whether or not he makes it is a different story.

This is partly why I am so adamant about being baker on the field as soon as possible. I think he will learn these things quicker by playing the game. He learns them this year and we could do what the eagles did last year in Wentz's second season and win the super bowl.

Next year will be fantastically fun. Look at wentz, Goff, trubisky and mahomes.