DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Fantasy & Gaming NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Pivots are based on ownership projections, obviously. If you're in tournaments, you generally don't want to play the guy that will be heavily owned. Usually, heavily-owned guys prohibit a user from differentiating their lineup from others, and thus, it's harder to win a tourney. So, as an example, I will have very little of Spencer Ware because of his ownership. If he busts and roughly 50% of the field is on him, I'm in good shape.

Now, sometimes people will go all-in on a guy because he is in such a good spot. Ware could easily be a player someone will go all-in on. I will not. I will be under the field by a significant amount. My pivots off Ware in tournaments, at similar 4K or lower prices would include:

C. Hyde
L McCoy
Duke Johnson (maybe)
Ty Montgomery (based on what news we get in Baltimore)

So this is a very different approach than in cash. Ware could easily see my cash lineup simply because I know so many people will be on him in cash, ownership doesn't really matter, and if he breaks out and I don't have him I'm screwed most likely. If he doesn't do well, but still so many people are on him, I can make my money at other positions.

I might be changing my tune on Ware. Instead of fading him in tournaments, I might go all in. He is in such a great spot.

Pivot was the wrong word ... i meant what your options were .. if u shove luck over cousins who would u pay for if u played cousins and who would u have paired with luck at the same spot ...

Here’s where i’m At now ...

Cousins
Gurley
McCaffery
Ware
Thilean
Fitzgerald
Ellington
LaCess (Denver)
Bears ...

May replace thielan/Fitz with Galloway/sanders ...

Thoughts? ...

Thats cash ... where u at with your cash lineup? ...

I can't play Fitz. It's going to be snowing and windy. That and the team is just bad. My QB right now is Jackson against a terrible ATL defense. Ebron is the TE simply for the volume.

Ellington, Godwin, and Theilen are my WRs. We have the same top RBs too, I believe.

I might go with Aaron Jones and try to fit in a higher priced WR and a better defense. Not sure yet.

Week 13 results:

Overall, I had a 59% return on the day. Made the cash line in all single entry double up and won 16/20 head-to-heads. Unfortunately, I had a -70% ROI in tournaments. For cash, I stuck with the high priced RBs (instead of the popular "pay down for Aaron Jones" strategy), paid up for Theilen, chose Ellington over Golladay. For tournaments:

- Minus a couple of lineups, I locked in Aaron Jones, Spencer Ware, and either Hyde/Yeldon in RB and Flex.
- Split one WR position between Sutton/Sanders
- Sprinkled in many top end WRs in the final two WR spots
- Had a 50/50 split between Njoku and Olsen (except a couple QB/TE stacks)
- Primarily had Packers D

Cash Lineup- 166.90
QB: L. Jackson- 17.50
RB: T. Gurley- 34.50
RB: C. Mc Cafferey- 34.10
WR: A. Theilen- 13.80
WR: C. Godwin- 24.10
WR: B. Ellington- 10.50
TE: E. Ebron- 16.20
FL: S. Ware- 12.20
DF: Browns- 4.00

Best GPP Lineup- 169.40
QB: P. Mahomes- 33.00
RB: A. Jones- 15.20
RB: C. Hyde- 3.70
WR: D. Hopkins- 16.10
WR: C. Godwin- 24.10
WR: E. Sanders- 5.90
TE: T. Kelce- 42.80
FL: J.Richard- 14.60
DF: Broncos- 14.00

Who are people playing tomorrow?

Jaylen Samuels or Jeff Wilson? Or both?

I’ll let u know in a bit ... gonna go get final prep for tomorrows last minute prep ...

First time through ... i went with Jackson ... dude from SD ... i like him tommorow ... we’ll see what Wilson does for me ... same with Samuels ...

Has brieda been ruled out? ...

Why u not considering Jackson? ... i understand about Eke .. but u also have Ridley ...

Could be the same with Wilson of brieda is playing ...

Curious as to your reasoning ...

I'm not going to play Jackson in cash and will choose between either Samuels or Wilson...most likely Samuels. I don't see Jackson getting as much run as Ekeler so I don't think he is playable is cash. Tournaments? Sure.

Interesting ... very very interesting ...

We may test that theory out ... i like Jackson ... he’s a between the tackles dude ... they get the bungles at home ... i see a blowout ... good for Jackson ... he was impressive last week ... not sure if u watch the games ..

I like Wilson also ... would like Samuels more if it wasn’t for them more than likely getting a big lead witch would lead me to believe more Ridley than Samuels ... but man, samuels is good ... way better than Ridley .. hes just a rook ...

Ok ... got distracted with this the season stuff ... gonna go do the 2nd last lineups and get prepped for “pivots” in case of weather or some injury updates ....

Be back in a bit to let u know where I landed ...

So far I think I am going 75% Ekeler, 25% Jackson in tournaments. All on different rosters so I can soak up the RB play in that game, because I do think it's a good play.

Its down to Wilson and Samuels for me in cash, and I lean Samuels for the implied team total. PIT is 30, SF is 20. Plus I could see SF getting behind early to where they look to the passing game with Kittle, Goodwin, etc. Wilson can be a part of the passing game, no doubt, but I just have a bad feeling about playing him.

Pittsburgh has also shown us that they don't go the RB committee route, right? They have one guy and they run him out all the time. Bell...Connor...and now Samuels. Just based on what we've seen volume-wise, I find it difficult to think they deviate from that approach. In SF, Alfred Morris and even Matt Dayes (former Brown) is a concern with touches.

I agree on the stilers ... there not a committee team ... and i think samueals is a better rb than Ridley ...

He’s a rook and he’s a converted TE .. Ridley isn’t a chump and Tomlin has said it will be a committee ... Samuels has said he will start and Ridley will play series 2 and they’ll rotate from there ...

Even with all that ... i like Samuels ... hes good .. just not so sure the game script is gonna cater to him ..

So i agree wth u about the stiler approach ... just not sure i can trust this ..

And last week my eyes told me it could be a good game for Jackson .. hes good ... him and eke are a good match ... and they have a nice implied total ..

Lets hope wherever we end up we both do good ...

Let me go do this .. wanna tell u where i landed and see what critique u have ... always looking for input on the why’s and hows ...

Cash Lineup ( it will change, I'm sure)

QB- L. Jackson
RB- E.Elliot
RB- C. McCaffrey
WR- K. Allen
WR- C. Godwin
WR- C. Sutton
TE- Don't Know Yet
FL- J. Samuels
DF- Don't Know Yet

TE is tough for me this week. I'm not paying up based on what I've already put in for this lineup. We'll see. I've been riding the Lamar Jackson cash game train for three weeks in a row.

Just finished ....

Lamar .... was between him/Rodgers and Watson ... went with Lamar

McCaffery

Jones - i cant not play him against the atl ...

Lindsey - didnt really like the WR’s i could get up to putting any of the 3 we had discussed before in .... i really wanna play Allen like u did but i just dont know ... with Lynn when they get up they pound it ...

Humphries over Godwin ... like them both ... may switchback to Godwin ...

Fitz - with Kirk out against this secondary ...

Sutton

Gronkowski - may switch back to Njoku ... hate this position this week ... hate it .. may even go back to the bum from Denver ... *L* ...

Browns ... there all i can afford ... *L* ... cams shoulders bothering him and he threw 3 picks last week ....

I may get back later and let u know what i switch too ...

Not a fan of too many players in this lineup ... so its gonna change one more time before tomorrows final dive ...

A. Jones makes sense in tournaments but he doesn't catch the ball enough or have a role similar to what other RBs have had against ATL. Also too much change in GB's offense to where Rodgers is the defacto OC and will pass the ball like cray. I like Rodgers stacked with either Graham, Adams, Cobb, or MVS.

Good luck with Gronk.

*L* ... ya ... putting Gronk in wasn’t easy .. i struggled hitting the submit button ... *L* ... i had the cashand hes 4800 ... pretty sure i’ll end up with Njoku or maybe i’ll Just take a flier on Herndon or dude from denver ...

Depending on the weather i may end up stacking those guys in tourny’s ... i like Rodgers ... its the weather ....

Will also affect my position on Jones .... its not like he cant catch ..

I could end up with any of the following combo’s

McCaffery is in ... he’s my #1 play this week ... as he was last week ...

Zeke/Jones
Zeke/Lindsey

Jones/Lindsey

Zeke/Jones/Lindsay and wilson/Jackson or Samuels ...

Lots of choices ...

Just dont like the wr’s that much when i pay down and i cant pay up high enough for a TE ...

I’m just starting to really understand the floor concept in cash ... i understood the concept but its not as simple as that ... know what i mean? ...

As of right now ....

Lamar
Caff
Zeke
Wilson
Allen
Callaway
Humphries
Njoku
Giants

Possible moves ....

Lindsey for Zeke ...
Hopkins for Allen
Landry may fine his way in ..

Ebron over Njoku .. may also pay even further up .. Kielce and ertz ... sick of taking 4’s at TE on a good week ...

Godwin/Fitz over Humphries

Samuel from NC may find his way in ..

I got this process stuff down .. can u tell ... *LOL* ..

Week 14 Recap:

Overall, a 43% ROI. Made all cash lines in double ups and won 9/16 head-to-heads (not really good here). In tournments, I struggled again at -74%.

Cash Game Lineup- 143.58
QB: L. Jackson- 19.98
RB: C. McCaffrey- 28.10
RB: E. Elliiot- 34.20
WR: K. Allen- 18.80
WR: C. Godwin- 2.30
WR: C. Sutton- 3.30
TE: I. Thomas- 16.70
FL: J. Samuels- 16.20
DF: Bills 4.00

I couldn't go with the approach some were doing with putting both Samuels and Wilson in the same lineup then paying up at QB & TE, essentially for Mahomes and Kelce. I heard some wanted all three cheap RBs (add in J. Jackson) and pay up for just about every other position. RB is the most predictable position on Draftkings especially when targeting backs that can catch. So, it was always going to be between choosing two of either Zeke, CMC, and Barkely for me and then one of the cheapies. I know it was against the Browns but the CMC TD called back would have won me more money. I had him everywhere.

Also, on Sunday morning there was news that Baltimore may play both Flacco and Jackson. That freaked me out so I plugged in Rodgers for only $300 more. Then Flacco went inactive and then I changed my QB/DEF combo of Aaron Rodgers and Giants to Lamar and Bills. I should have stayed on Rodgers/ Giants.

Best Tournament Lineup- 165.60
QB: D. Prescott- 30.40
RB: A. Ekeler- 17.40
RB: M. Ingram- 12.30
WR: D. Hopkins- 13.60
WR: A. Cooper- 52.70
WR: A. Humphries- 8.20
TE: Z. Ertz- 8.80
FL: J. Samuels- 16.20
DF: Steelers- 6.00

Nothing really to say here other than this was a stack of Prescott/Cooper and running it back with Ertz on the other side of the game. I had Samuels in a lot of lineups and paired him with the Steelers D for the correlation play. Ekeler was 75% in my tournament linueps and Jackson 25%. I think it was the right process for this lineup, just not the best of results. I played a lot of fantasy football sharks head-to-head and they played Hopkins in CASH, so they must have thought he had a decent enough floor. That didn't work out well for them in cash or for me in GPPs.

Just a few more weeks left. This is where it can really get challenging with identifying the right plays. More guys get sent to IR and teams making the playoffs will limit their star's game volume or outright bench them. Gotta stay locked in on the NFL news moving forward.

I’ve been playing less and less “money” games over the last month to improve my process ... not working ... i’m getting worse ... *L* ... that actually really pees me off ... its a process but not seeing results is something i’m not used to or like ...

I played in one $5 double up on each site ... cashed on DK came up short on FD ... played in four $1 tourny’s on DK and cashed in one ...

So financially i was down $2 ... dont feel like doing the math for the ROI ... *L* ..

I played in free gpp’s on both sites ... 1 on DK and 2 on FD ... nada in neither ...

Only dk cash lineup was ...

Lamar
CMC
Zeke
Wilson
Allen
Callaway
Humphries
Njoku
Giants

That got me 145.38

I wanted to pay Thomas over Njoku but couldnt pull the trigger ... if i would have watched the Panthers play last week i would have played him ... dudes good .. hes extremely atheletic ... where was he the first time Olsen went out? ...

If i do this next year for real money i’ll watch all the games ... i did that for the last 10 years sans last year and haven’t watched many this year .... but for me ... it really helps ... Thomas is the reason why ... after his first catch i was not happy with myself .. if I had seen him play i would have played him in a heartbeat ... hes a good athelete and i had no clue ..

Wussed out on Gronk .. *L* ... i just couldnt do it just because he was so cheap ... no reason to see yesterday coming ... not upset with that “mistake” at all ...

Big mistake was Cooper ... i kept wanting to put him in .. actually had him in (then again i pretty much at one time had all the WR’s in .. *L* ... most changes i’ve Ever made by far ... doing a lot more experimenting ... ) ...

I have not been a fan of Coops .. i kept coming back to the fact they force feed Coop and the iggles secondary is in shambles ... literal shambles .. just couldnt do it .. chose Allen/Browns over Coop/Gnats ... “process” was fine i believe i just went the wrong way ... as u well know ... its gonna happen ... i’m Gonna ask u about this later in another post today .. this ones all ready long enough ... prolly to long .. *L* ..

He’s a different player on turf ... would u agree? ...

Couldn’t agree more on the 3 “cheap” RB’s .. i get that strategy and when it works out there really gonna smash ... after doing all my research when push came to shove ... all 3 had serious volume issues IMO ... if i played more lineups i would have had a few with CMC/ZEKE and Lindsey in them ... i chose Wilson for that reason .. i thought he had the least amount of “vulturing” and the game flow would favor him cause hes a good recieving back .. of course the game flow didnt go well .. *L* ...

My DK tourny lineup was

Bake
Jones
CMC
Wilson
Cooper
Fitz
VICE GRIPS ....
Njoku
Browns

That got me 170.82 ...

first time i’ve played VG all year i believe ... have shied away cause Bake spreads it around .. well since Freddie took over .. didnt even consider anyone before that ... *L* ....

I wanted to stack Bake so i took him and Njoku ... stacked them on FD also but went with VG/Callaway and played Kelce at TE ...

i see the chemistry developing with VG .. until his price goes up .. he will be in consideration for me the rest of the way ... and it has nuttin to do with the fact i love him .. i’ve won a TON of cash over the years in FF with Stilers and cant remember the last time i had a brown on my team ... that’ll change bigtime next year ... .... going back to Barry Foster and maybe even before him ... my theory was ... at least when they scored it’s helping me somewhere ... *LOL* ..

Thats enough for now ...

Put in a lot of my thought proccess .. please critique the ones u would have done different and tell me why ... dont hold back .. I PROMISE your not going to offend me one bit ...

This is what i love talking about ... IMO its how u learn and improve ...

I do appreciate all the time you’ve taken Memph ... i’d Feel like i was taking advantage but i know u love it also ...

Really wish VERS would jump back in here ...

ANYONE ELSE .. i cant believe no one else plays ...

Correction .... that was my $5 line up .. i scored 149.88 with the $1 double i won ...

Lamar
CMC
ZEKE
wilson
C.Samuels
Allen
Tate
Njoku
Giants

My other cash scores were 143.78 ... 135.98 ... 133.38 ...

Other tourny score was 128.62 .... OH VEY ...

I've been doing small size (55 people or so playing) double ups lately from Sunday night game and Monday night. And finding much more success there.

Staying away from the Sunday 1 pm main/late swap, did nothing but lose every time in those. Finding it much easier to win with the smaller player pool.

j/c:

This week in DK cash, I think the RB/Flex decision comes down to these two options:

1. Force in Barkley, Zeke, and David Johnson and figure out the rest.

2. Choose two of Barkley, Zeke, and Johnson and then play Kenneth Dixon as your other RB/FLEX option at $3.5K.

Option #1 will be much easier to do if Jordan Reed is ruled out and you can play a cheap Vernon Davis.

I set my 1st line up this morning ... haven’t really completely focused on it yet ...

I went with

Allen ... was between him and Lamar .. Allen has more passing upside IMO ...
Zeke
Bark
Johnson ... Samuels and Mixon other considerations .... what don’t u like about them ...
Zay Jones ... consistent targets around 8 or 9 ... hate playing two guys in that game ...
Gallup ... hes getting around 6 targets a game .. he’ll prolly come out ...
Pettis ... 6 - 8 targets a game .. dont really like him against the seahags ... not a lot of plays willl be run and there D is good ...
Fisker from Tenn .. very efficient ... Davis may come in regardless of Reeds status ...
RatsD ...

Whee u at qb and wr wise right now ...

I’m struggling to find value with the WR’s ....

Thoughts on Jordy Nelson this week? ...

QB?

Right now I'm considering Dak in cash.

Wr’s ... what u thinking there ...

Thoughts on Jordy Nelson? ...

Dak ... interesting choice ... whats your thinking there? .. i dont see that one at all ... please explain your logic ...

Dak:

I need 15-17 points from him to make value
He has running equity
He might be playing from behind and forced to throw against a team whose defense isn't that great.

It's not a lock play, but it is also cheap enough to where every $100 matters when trying to jam in the top RB plays....I don't hate it.

WR? I don't know yet. Jordy might be good and I think Carr is in a great matchup, just think Jared Cook might be the receiver of choice.

j/c:

If anyone is playing the Showdown game tonight (KC v LAC), My route is not playing J. Jackson in tournaments as much as the field. With Melvin Gordon and Ekeler ruled out, everybody will be on him. I'd try to focus on the passing game in a relatively high game total.

But I thought the same thing with Derrick Henry last week.....

Interesting ... on DK in cash i used Jackson as my captain ... figured most would be on Mahomes/Rivers or one of the 3 stud recievers so i went with Jackson as my captain ...

I’m talking cash here ...

Doint that allowed me to get

Mahhomes
Allen
Kelce
and D. Williams in ...
C. West is my 6th ...

I really want Mahhomes/Kelce/Allen in and if i made any of them captain i couldn’t get D. Williams in and i really want him on DK for the ppr ...

I may swap out Kelce/Allen for Rivers ... thats a toughie for me ..

I also think SD may run the ball more than most think ...

KC’s not very good against the run .. the #’s are skewed and Lynn loves to run it ... its suppose to be wet and rainy ... thats my story and i’m Sticking to it .. *L* ...

Wish i knew who was gonna get the carries the other Williams or Ware ... thats ones tricky ...

Revised.

Any movement on wr’s yet?

My strategy didn’t work last night ... how’d u do?

My strategy worked out well, I just had too much Keenan Allen and he got injured. I didn't watch the game so I don't know what happened.

I had Mahomes, Rivers, K. Allen, M. Williams, D. Williams, Kelce all in the captain spot in various lineups.

WR? Maybe Stills, Boyd. R. Foster, Ross, Gabriel. These are all cheap ones because I very weighted on Rbs so I'm forced to choose from the bottom.

I may go REALLY cheap at WR so I can do better than Vernon Davis.

Dang ... how many lineups and contests u play in?

I started to look at Stills ... foster over jones possibly also ...

U don’t like my TE ... *LOL* ..

No way can i play Ross with Lamar ...

Who in the lord could u be looking at cheaper than those guys? ... am i in the mix for u to play .. *L* ...

Pretty sure i’m going with Samuels and more than likely Bark/Zeke ... with Mixon possibly sliding in for 1 of them ... i reallly like Samuels ... especially recieving against NE .... i really wanna play Johnson but his injury scares me .. Johnson’s been getting touches since Leftowich took over just not productive ... not sure u cant be productive against atlanta ... *L* ...

I think Pitt’s gonna pass pass pass and then pass some more ...

j/c:

Please see my questions above ...

Hmmmm ... Cook from Minni who is fresh and good has a home date with a run D that struggles and the Vikes have a new OC who had best run the ball quite a bit more than his predecessor ..

Hmmmm .... theres some food for thought .. some serious food for thought ...

For that contest? One contest and 10 tournament lineups.

And yeah, I like the TE you suggested...it's him or V. Davis in cash. Not sure yet as Davis has a larger sample size of production when Reed is out. Yet, Firkser (the correct spelling) is cheaper and I don't need him too much to make value.

As of right now it comes down to the TE/DEF combo. I feel 'ok' everywhere else.

Where’d u end up on the WR’s ...

I haven’t looked any further into it ...

I gotta take a deep dive into tomorrow nights slate and then i gotta go figure out what i’m gonna do at WR on sunday ..

Looking like i’m Gonna settle on Allen at qb ... u still going with dak? ...

Reed’s been ruled out ... i wanna play Davis but not with Johnson at QB ... and i like the other dudes name ... *LOL* ...

Are any of you doing Captain mode for our game tomorrow?

Yes sir ...

Who did you guys pick at Captain? I went with Higgins and stacked Browns players + defense. Praying for that win.

Right now ... your on DK ... correct ... thats what i’m ASSuming ... if your on FD let me know ... captains spot changes ALOT from the two sites ...

As of now .... tinkering to come ... i dont do dfs based on my rooting habits ... but i am not very good at this YET ... so consider anything i say with a ton of salt ..

Callaway - Captain
Bake
Lindsey
Chubb
Njoku
Booker ...

Thats for now ...